Yesterday, day one of the Chepstow Jumps Season Opener reminded me of one cruel fact. October is tough.
One can study pedigrees, form, or ground conditions, but if a horse isn’t ready, they aren’t ready.
Equally, they could be ready, but that horse could do something uncharacteristic on their first public outing for many months.
👀 Really taking chasing debut for DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE at @Chepstow_Racing.
Jumped his fences smartly and put in a good effort. Two nice horses.
According to the stable maths, that is also Kim Bailey's 1,500 winner as a trainer!
Bravo, @kimbaileyracing 👏pic.twitter.com/2jhmAzlfrK
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) October 11, 2024
From the two Chepstow fancies yesterday, Ryan’s Rocket didn’t perform anywhere near his known form, which you can’t predict, and Moon Hunter was bumped along for the majority of his race.
Anyway, we move on to today with some good action over jumps and on the Flat.
2:15 Chepstow – Liari @ 5/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win
I’ve liked Liari all week, and I’m not ditching him at the 11th hour.
The form of Paul Nicholls’ horses is a worry based on the performances shown yesterday, but this race looks perfect for him, and he’s probably been targeted for it.
He won his first three starts for Nicholls last year, the second of which impressively as battled well at Aintree to see off the highly touted Knight Of Allen.
🔥 Paul Nicholls on Liari (best handicap chance):
“He’s as good as any of the others I’ve won the Boodles with – he’s a smart horse and I don’t think we have seen the best of him yet.
"He won very nicely at Musselburgh; made all, jumped brilliantly, and they didn’t get near… pic.twitter.com/CvAus6feEJ
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) February 26, 2024
He then defied a penalty to beat Roaring Legend comfortably on much better ground at Musselburgh before disappointing massively in the Boodles at Cheltenham.
That wasn’t his full ability, and I believe a mark of 134 is still lenient for him.
2:40 York – Orazio @ 16/1 with Bet365 (6 places) – 1pt EW
I truly, honestly, wholeheartedly believed that I had stepped away from the Orazio cliff.
I left him alone at Ascot in July and I did the same at Ayr last time out, and on both occasions, he failed to hit the frame.
Orazio declared for the six-furlong handicap at York on Wednesday.
How many more chances? pic.twitter.com/0cAoq4giOe
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) May 13, 2024
So, you would imagine that my brain would leave him alone until further notice, right?
Well, that notice came around sooner than I expected because I’m backing him today.
His mark of 101 doesn’t make him chucked in, but he is clearly effective off this mark having stayed on like a steam train off 100 in the most recent Wokingham at Royal Ascot.
Furthermore, the form of his third in the Listed Cammidge Trophy continues to look very good as the winner, Montassib, won the recent Group 1 Sprint Cup while the fourth, Adaay In Devon, has won two subsequent Listed races.
Montassib finds a gap to score in the closing stages and claim the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes at @DoncasterRaces… pic.twitter.com/2KG0lRAx2G
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) March 23, 2024
I think he is ground versatile, but he’s probably a little bit more effective on a slower surface, so the soft ground at York will suit.
Speaking of York, low draws dominated the five-furlong handicap at the track yesterday, so his break from stall five should work.
Like I say every time he runs, I think there’s a lot going for him and he is classy. Off the cliff I go!
3:30 Chepstow – Into The Park @ 13/2 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW
I like the unexposed profile of Into The Park in the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and his price is rather nice.
On hurdles debut, he chased down Tutti Quanti (an unexposed horse to follow from the Paul Nicholls yard) and Joyeuse (from the family of EPATANTE) at Taunton when giving plenty of weight away.
On his next start, he bolted up at Newbury and the fourth, Alnilam, has won two novice hurdles since, earning himself a rating of 125.
Wow! Into The Park is off the mark with a hugely impressive victory at @NewburyRacing for @PJHobbs1 and @MichelNolan1… pic.twitter.com/qQfFdnYvLv
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) January 23, 2024
Furthermore, on his handicap debut off a mark of 120, he won snugly in a race that received a form boost thanks to Lallygag (fifth).
It’s a tough race, but I think there are plenty of upsides for Into The Park.
4:00 Chepstow – Jetoile @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
The John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase is a fascinating race as plenty in the race deserve respect, but Jetoile should go well fresh.
He won the Old Roan Chase off a one-pound lower mark on his first start of last season and Al Dancer, Tommy’s Oscar, and Hang In There went on to frank the form.
🏇 Jetoile fends off Minella Drama in a thrilling conclusion to the Jewson Fast Set Finish Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase at a whopping 25/1 for Daryl Jacob and Ryan Potter 👏@Jewson | @RyanPot98522248 | @Dazjacob10 pic.twitter.com/trHp06zmtC
— Aintree Racecourse (@AintreeRaces) October 29, 2023
Running well fresh is a trait that Jetoile possesses as he nearly beat Aucunrisque on chase debut in 2022 and his hurdles debut at Cheltenham was solid in 2021.
His prominent racing style is likely to suit as it was hard to get into races yesterday, and he is giving Daryl Jacob is only ride on the card.
4:35 Chepstow – Sail Away @ 12/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW
After today is through, I could wince at the thought of cliff horses because Sail Away is a horse I have a soft spot for.
He served the column well at the end of the 2022/23 season when bolting up at Ayr in a novice handicap chase off 136, beating Forward Plan who has since improved 13lbs having won two valuable handicap chases.
The way he made all and jumped from fence to fence under Bridget Andrews was thoroughly impressive, and he did that thanks to his preferred good ground which he’ll get today.
Good day overall.
10/1 winner and 6/1 winning NAP with Anna Bunina & Thunder Rock both placing.
Thought SAIL AWAY was extremely good – great ride and jumped supremely well.
No dice at Newbury but will still keep TOIMY SON onside going forward.pic.twitter.com/gxp9amKlSa https://t.co/66bReeAJRj
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) April 22, 2023
A few of his subsequent runs last season were disappointing, but some of his efforts on a faster surface warrant respect, notably his run in the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase when behind Forward Plan again and the subsequent Bet365 Gold Cup runner-up Annual Invictus.
Less than a month later, he finished fourth of four in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase in order to prepare him for the Aintree Grand National meeting which he never got to because of sustained rain.
He was only beaten by 10 and a half lengths that day, a quite remarkable effort considering the horses ahead of him (Pic D’Orhy, Ahoy Senor, and L’Homme Presse) are, in my eyes, bonified Grade 1 horses.
Harry Atkins takes off a valuable seven pounds, so with a current workable mark of 140 and a better surface, he has every right to win this race.
