Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    We are over the hump and on the downhill run to the end of this glorious meeting as it’s Royal Ascot Day 4.

    For the first two selections yesterday, COLTRANE was a tough pill to swallow in the Gold Cup and BLESS drifted across the track which didn’t aid her chances. TOIMY SON missed the break in the last race and despite staying on at the line, David Menuisier’s charge couldn’t regain the distance.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Anyway, it was a tough day, but hopefully, we can have some more success today.

     

    Albany Stakes – Soprano @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The opening race of the day is the Albany Stakes for two-year-old fillies over six furlongs, a race that is always competitive, but it’s SOPRANO that gets my vote of confidence.

    George Boughey hasn’t had the best of weeks at Ascot so far, but this Starspangledbanner filly by Lealas Daughter, a half-sister to three-time Grade 1-winning Obviously, gives him his best hope of a winner.

    Having been bought at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales in October for 100,000GNS, he made his Newmarket debut a winning one over five furlongs, a race he was hurried along in from two furlongs out.

    However, the turn of foot he showed once he got going was impressive and with his 49-day break from the track, it seems connections have had this race over six furlongs in mind for a while.

    In what isn’t a vintage crop for the Albany, Soprano could be the best of the lot.

     

    Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Aimeric @ 10/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Roger Varian has yet to have a winner at Royal Ascot 2023, however, day four is where I’m hoping that changes as AIMERIC will be carrying my money (the instant curse) at 10/1 with William Hill.

    This Frankel half-brother to none other than Aclaim, the 2017 Prix de la Foret winner turned sire standing at Manton Park, has raced seven times on the track, winning on three occasions.

    The most recent victory came 21 days ago at Doncaster, his first run after a wind and gelding operation.

    That return to form was promising to see as he once beat El Habeeb in a maiden at Chester over 1m4f, a horse who is now rated 110 and ran an eyecatching race behind Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month.

    The handicapper only brandished him with a four-pound rise in the weights for his run last time out and if he can continue to improve on his second run after a wind-op (the age-old cliché), then off a mark of 96, this four-year-old is an interesting way into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

     

    Sandringham Stakes – Jackie Oh @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt WIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    An angle into handicaps I always like to follow is the class horse at the top of the weights.

    In this year’s race, JACKIE OH is the one that can hopefully continue Aidan O’Brien’s incredible form this week.

    Having been supplemented into the Irish Guineas for €50,000, she ran a great race behind Tahiyra and Meditate last time out despite the massive hike in class from a Listed event to Group 1 company.

    She seemed to enjoy the better ground last time out and by Galileo out of Jacqueline Quest, a 1000 Guineas runner-up, she has good relations to Line Of Duty (Breeders’ Cup Turf Juvenile winner), Secret State (110-rated Godolphin four-year-old) and Onassis (two-time Listed winner for Charlie Fellowes).

    Hopefully, she will be able to defy her mark of 102 and can continue O’Brien’s streak of Royal Ascot success.

     

    Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes – Rocket Rodney @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    And finally, this series is called ‘The Top Three’, but with the difficulty of splitting these four selections, I’m including them all on the P&L.

    In the finale over five furlongs, ROCKET RODNEY looks wildly overpriced at 22/1 with William Hill.

    Keeping this short and sweet, he looked brilliant in the preliminaries before last year’s Windsor Castle and gave Little Big Bear a great race WHEN beaten by a neck; that form is worth its weight in gold and could receive another boost if O’Brien’s stable star obliges in the Commonwealth Cup.

    He also beat Eddie’s Boy three times last season, a subsequent Group 3 winner, and even put four lengths between himself and Rumstar, another subsequent Group 3 winner, in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown in July.

    If you can ignore his last run of the season on ground that didn’t suit and his seasonal reappearance when he needed the run, returning to a favourable course and distance should benefit his chances and the handicapper has dropped him six pounds in two runs.

    Off 99, with all of that Group-level form, George Scott’s Dandy Man colt is a great each-way chance in the last.

     

    Other fancies for the day (not including on P&L):

    • Little Big Bear 11/10 & Shaquille 9/1 (3:05)
    • Arrest 7/2 (5:35)
  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    What a difference a day makes! Royal Ascot Day Two saw Mostahdaf light up the turf and beat the NAP Luxembourg, but not after giving him a mention. And the E/W Bet, Rogue Millennium stepped down in trip and delivered in the Duke of Cambridge. Thursday is Gold Cup Day, but the card isn’t overly attractive. But I’ve managed to dig through to hopefully find some winners on Day Three.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ELDAR TO GRAB THE GOLD

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Named after the famous MMA fighter, Eldar Eldarov has done nothing but impress. Last season he delivered an eye-catching run at the Royal meeting, in the Queen’s Vase which set him up for the St Leger. This season, he’s started rather well. A narrow second at York on firm ground was good prep for this marathon contest. He’s the highest rated horse, which is no surprise. The Gold Cup doesn’t look as sexy as we have had in previous years, and it’s Eldar’s for the taking.

    Keep an eye on Subjectivist, the 2021 winner. He ran a good prep race in the Dubai Gold Cup, which had been his previous prep for the 2021 edition. He’s back from a break of two years, shaped well over in Dubai and can improve from that today. Double figure price at 10/1 (10Bet, BetUK)

    ROYAL RARE-BET

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W BET: Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – Caernarfon @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    I can’t wrap my head around how a top-rated horse, who finished third in the Epsom Oaks, is a double-figure price. She seems so versatile on all sorts of ground with wins on Good, soft, and placed on firm. She drops down two classes from Group One to Group Three, which might be more her level and a slight step back in trip won’t trouble her much. Jack Channon deserves something for training this horse, and hopefully he can get her over the line today.

    DAVID VS ASCOT

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Davideo @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    The handicaps today aren’t the best quality fields and I can’t seem to see any horse screaming out at me to make a case. Apart from Davideo. Surprisingly, recent winners haven’t come from the famous London Gold Cup, and tend to be found coming out of maidens. He has form finishing behind Mostabshir at Kempton, but hosed up at Newmarket on reappearance this season. He’s been given a fair mark of 92 and wide draw on the round course isn’t necessarily a bad thing

    Land Legend just caught my eye in this race. Chesspiece didn’t’ win his race yesterday and didn’t back up the form, but after turning to turf his form looks to have improved. A win and a second isn’t to be sniffed at, and a two-pound rise is lenient and puts him at a decent mark for the race. Each-way claims at 16/1 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Elite Status @ 11/8 (General)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – DAVIDEO @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Land Legend @ 16/1 e/w (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Al Asifah @ 8/13 (Betfred, BetUK)

    16:20 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV (NAP) @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    17:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Fort Vega @ 16/1 (General), Ramazan @ 25/1 (General) – Both e/w

    17:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – CAERNARFON @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    18:10 – Buckingham Palace H’cap – Northern Express @ 16/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks – The Top Three

    Without trying to sound too much like Racing Twitter, today was tough, very tough.

    The day started well with a nice place at 9/1 with TARRABB in the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, but a disappointing effort from QUEEN AMINATU in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and PEROTTO’s lack of importance in the Royal Hunt Cup ended the day on a negative note.

    That gives us a P&L of -2.2 points from day two, annoying, but not outright horrendous.

    Stick around though as day three includes one of my top three bets of the week, a 66/1 shot, and a 25/1 play in the competitive Britannia Stakes.

     

    Gold Cup (4:20) – Coltrane @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    As much as the Gold Cup can be a tough contest to work out, this year, in my mind, didn’t take too long to work out.

    While it may not be groundbreaking news to you all, COLTRANE is a very good horse and deserves his big day in the sun.

    That being said, deserving a race doesn’t mean you have to back the horse, but in this case, he looks like the obvious bet.

    On last season’s form alone, his fourth in the Goodwood Cup behind Kyprios, Stradivarius, and Trueshan would be good enough to win this race before you even begin to consider the idea that he has progressed in the 11 months since.

    Although plenty of others in here are also improving types – Eldar Eldarov, Emily Dickinson, Courage Mon Ami – Andrew Balding’s six-year-old is no different and in a year that is lacking big guns, he could be the one to take up the mantle.

    The 7/2 with William Hill looks like a very fair price in a field that he can hopefully get the better of.

     

    Britannia Stakes (5:00) – Bless @ 22/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    No French runner has ever won the Britannia Stakes, though that hasn’t stopped me from backing their sole representative in the shape of BLESS at 22/1 with BetVictor.

    Firstly, I will preface this selection with the fact that three-year-old handicaps at this stage of the season are always a nightmare, let alone on the straight course at Ascot with a potential draw bias to deal with.

    However, with jockey Stephane Pasquier flying over to take the ride, this Toronado colt can go close off a mark of 93.

    Looking through his French form, he nearly beat Marhaba Ya Sanafi, a future French 2000 Guineas winner and French Derby third, three starts ago at Chantilly off level weights.

    Furthermore, a look into his second-last run at Longchamp reveals he only finished a head behind Mario Baratti’s Angers, a Seabhac colt who would go on to bolt up by six lengths on his next start in the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas.

    Even his two-year-old maiden victory at Chantilly in November 2022 has seen the form franked thanks to Duc De Kent, who would go on to win two races after that and finish second in a Listed event on his latest start.

    That is some very solid form behind Bless’ chances, and despite his last three races occurring on softer conditions, his pedigree (by Toronado with Le Havre as the damsire) would suggest there is improvement to come on better ground.

    Whether the ground is too rattling quick for his liking or the draw bias is still favouring high draws tomorrow is the danger, but that is accounted into his odds of 22/1 and I’m very intrigued to see how Fabrice Chappet’s three-year-old can perform in the Britannia Stakes.

     

     

    Buckingham Palace Stakes (6:10) – Toimy Son @ 66/1 with William Hill – 0.5pts EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Regular readers of The Top Three column will recognise that I put up TOIMY SON for the Victoria Cup at massive odds last month.

    My case for her last time out revolved around her returning to seven furlongs on soft ground with Cristian Demuro booked to do the steering off a mark of 102.

    Unfortunately, she never really got into the race from the centre of the track.

    However, and rightly so, the handicapper dropped her three pounds for the disappointing effort and with Oisin Murphy back on board, she is one I’m hopeful for at a bit of a price.

    My one worry is the ground. Her pedigree and previous form suggest that softer conditions suit her better, however, there have been murmurs that the David Menuisier team wanted to try her on quicker ground and with the first-time blinkers applied, at 66/1, I will take the chance at her returning to form.

  • Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Day One at Royal Ascot wasn’t a great day for the column. The NAP landed, when Paddington hacked up in the feature, but Bring On The Night got trapped and Cuban Thunder was never involved. But Royal Ascot is very much a marathon and Day Two should start to turn the tide.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    MOORE MOORE MOORE

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)

    A treble for Ryan Moore yesterday took his total winners at the Royal meeting to 76 yesterday, after an astonishing treble on River Tiber, Paddington and Vauban. A £1 treble would have paid out £15.20, which shows the pull of the almost-40-year-old jockey. Today he rides Luxembourg, who’s been tipped in my Four To Follow column, when he won the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He led all the way, fending off Bay Bridge in the latter stages and there’s nothing to say he can do it again from stall one on the round course.

    Keep an eye out for Mostahdaf, who is unbeaten off a 50+ day break, and is making his UK reappearance, and seems to have a good draw on the wide outside in draw six. Both Jim Crowley and the Gosdens’ seem to have gone under in terms of winners, but this horse has to have been strategically aimed at this race, and is Group One level with a rating of 121, 2lbs lower than Luxembourg. Completely the wrong price at 20/1 (General).

    A ROYAL ROGUE

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W BET: Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    I like Prosperous Voyage, and there is much debate about what the ground will be by 3:40 in the afternoon. Prosperous Voyage loves the firm ground, but any cut and she’s vulnerable. Given Ascot had a storm yesterday, it puts me off her. The next best rated is Rogue Millennium. She’s had decent form figures since the turn of the new season, 232, narrowly beaten at York last time out on the firm ground. She won’t mind the ground, and Group Two is at her true level and she’ll give Jumbly a true test on the straight track.

    AN INTELLOGENT BET

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Intellogent @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Perotto is the favourite, and every punter has said in every preview ‘Perotto is my bet of the week.’ Well, well done tipsters he’s now 7/1. So, it tempts me to look elsewhere. I looked underneath Perotto in the betting and Intellogent stood out. Ran a stormer last year off 105, and lost by half a length. He’s rated 104 this  and that mark that makes him appealing; he’s versatile on all grounds; and, he’s drawn one off the stand side rail in 31. James Doyle has a nice 26% strike rate to back it up.

    Ghaly also caught the eye. Not just in the formbook, but when I saw him in person at York last year. He kept on in a four-runner handicap at York, beating Blue For You by a neck, which was his second run off a massive break. He then beat King Of Conquest, and the race threw up great formlines. He’s on the other side f the track in stall eight, but Saeed bin Suroor had hit a sweet spot, and Oisin Murphy is always eye-catching. Next best at 10/1 (William Hill)

    Chasing Aphrodite also gave off good each-way vibes. Won the trial for this race at the Trials meeting, and the handicapper has raised him four pounds for a length-and-a-half win. Versatile ground-wise, with wins on Good and Good-to-firm ground and Hayley Turner always turns up at Royal Ascot. Prepare for an excitable Ed Chamberlain if Hayley’s victorious. Decent claims at 16/1 (William Hill)

    One more for the Hunt Cup, and Dunum represents good Irish form. Narrowly beaten when favourite in the Emerald Mile, but has been consistent throughtou his career. 1111212 read his form figures and a 4lbs rise will mean nothing to him, having defied 6lb and 9lbs rises before. Bookies have the main Irish raider at 14/1 (10Bet, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two) – Got To Love A Grey @ 10/1 (General), Bundchen e/w @ 16/1 (General)
    15:05 – Kensington Palace Fillies’ H’cap – Adelaise @ 7/1 (General)
    15:40 – Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Jumbly @ 9/4 (General), ROGUE MILLENNIUM E/W @ 12/1 (Betfred)
    16:20 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG (NAP) @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)
    17:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – INTELLOGENT @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill), Ghaly (10/1) Chasing Aphrodite (16/1) & Dunum (14/1) all e/w
    17:35 – Queen’s Vase (Group Two) – Peking Opera @ 6/1 (General)
    18:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Bombay Bazaar @ 10/1 (General)
  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us and we will get straight into the selections after looking at yesterday’s results.

    Although the Twitter fancies were good, we made a small loss of 0.9 points yesterday after CALLING THE WIND was placed in the Ascot Stakes to add to the losses of INDESTRUCTIBLE and BOBSLEIGH. That has us on a P&L of 27.75 points profit from 38 points stakes.

    Looking to find pick up tomorrow, let’s get started.

    Duke Of Cambridge Stakes – Queen Aminatu @ 10/1 with Boylesport – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Finally, QUEEN AMINATU is going to run.

    Despite being entered a few times after her promising third to Sacred in the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes last time out, connections are now unleashing her at the Berkshire track.

    This filly by Muhaarar has been on my agenda for a while, but the run at Lingfield in May confirmed to me why I liked her so much as she showed great determination and stamina to stay on behind an on-song Sacred, who on her day, can compete in Group 1-level races.

    Although her record on the turf reads 0-6, three of her last five races were successful outings and she will be race fit for tomorrow having raced three races already this year.

    William Haggas’ four-year-old looks like she can step up to the higher levels against the mares and at 10/1 for the Duke Of Cambridge, let’s hope tomorrow is the day.

    Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap – Tarrabb @ 9/1 with Boylesport – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    If I fancy Queen Aminatu, which is a Group 3 contest, then on collateral form, I am also backing TARRABB in the race directly before at 9/1 with Boylesport.

    This Exceed And Excel filly got the better of my previous fancy in a handicap at Haydock when giving away two pounds and has gone on to run well in two handicaps since.

    Fast forward to this season, Owen Burrows’ four-year-old ran a good race on reappearance at Chelmsford under tomorrow’s jockey, William Buick, and that run should mean she’ll be ready for a tilt at Royal Ascot.

    For a Godolphin-bred filly who only made her debut as a three-year-old, like her sire, Exceed And Excel, and damsire, Pivotal, hopefully, she can continue to get better with age and I will be backing her off a mark of 91.

    Royal Hunt Cup – Perotto @ 7/1 with William Hill – 2pts WIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    There is no messing around with this fancy; he either wins or he bombs out.

    I put PEROTTO up earlier in the week on my Ante-post Analysis piece, which went live on Friday, and his price has stayed the same at a general 7/1 with William Hill.

    Having won the Britannia Stakes in 2021 off a three-pound higher mark, a small leap of faith is required to hope that Roger Varian’s five-year-old is back to his best, but efforts behind Triple Time last September, a now Group 1 Queen Anne winner, and Chindit last July, a Group 1 Lockinge Stakes runner-up, showed encouragement towards one big run.

    Back on better ground and using his falling handicap mark to his advantage, his claims are obvious for the Royal Hunt Cup, as explained in the Ante-post Analysis piece, and he should run a good race.

  • Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s that time of year. The sun is shining, the suits are hired, it must be Royal Ascot. Top hats galore and top-class action from all around the world. Australia and America join in today, along with British and Irish. Day One is set to be a cracker. Here are my selections and naps for the one of the best meetings of the Summer.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    PADDINGTON TO BEAR THE BRUNT

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    There are many races this week which punters are saying are ‘the races of the week’. This is one of them, with the English and Irish Guineas winners facing off. Chaldean is 3lbs higher than his Irish counter-part, 119 to 116. But there is one thing that lets the Frankel colt down. The draw. Since the turn of the millennium, four winners have come from stall one. Many horses are boxed in on the rail and haven’t room to move. Paddington is drawn wide in eight, and if he can get a better start he had in the Irish Guineas, he’ll be hard to get past. Read more on his chances on Best Of Bets.

    Keep an eye out for Indestructible, the Craven winner. He’s already tipped up on Best of Bets, and he isn’t without hope. He underperformed in the English Guineas but has been kept fresh for this race. Firm ground will suit him, given he won by five-and-a-half lengths as a two-year-old on the surface, and a good outside draw in stall nine. 50/1 (General) seems overpriced.

    And don’t discount Isaac Shelby, who’s a decent each-way price of 9/1 (General). He won the Greenham Stakes, where Chaldean unseated. He almost made up for it when narrowly losing in the French Guineas. The ground will be a little firmer, and could go well, with a half-decent draw in stall three.

    PERFECT STORM IN THE COVENTRY

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W BET: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Cuban Thunder @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)

    I feel Cuban Thunder is overlooked. He’s experienced enough with two races under his belt, including a win last time out, which came in the Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes. Lusail, Repartee and Queen Olly are recent winners of the race who haven’t had bad careers since then. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a good record when prepping Amo Racing’s two-year-olds. Kevin Stott has chosen to ride Bucanero Fuerte, but Rossa Ryan isn’t a bad substitute. Stand-side draw might be where the winners come on the straight course this week, worth to keep an eye on.

    MOORE AND MULLINS TO BRING IT

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Bring On The Night @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Willie Mullins is operating at a 57% strike rate. Over the jumps, in the off season. He’s a genius. He has a good record at the Royal meeting as well with four winners in this race. Those four winners came in a period of six years between 2012 – 2018. Ryan Moore was on three of them. Moore is currently operating at a 33% strike rate and has also won leading rider at Royal Ascot nine times. Bring On The Night has been raised 4lbs since last year’s second, and hasn’t been seen since. Bring on the Ascot Stakes I say!

    Keep an eye out for Themaxwecan who loves the firmer ground. He raced in last year’s race, finishing midfield off a mark of 97. After that race he went and won a race at Ascot over two miles on firm ground with Jamie Spencer on board. This time he’s 92, 5lbs lower than last year’s mark. He hasn’t got a great record over two miles, but with a good mark and good conditions he could certainly get a place at 40/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Modern Games @ 9/4 (Unibet, William Hill), Chindit e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Givemethebeatboys @ 4/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK), CUBAN THUNDER E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
    15:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Highfield Princess @ 5/2 (Unibet), Twilight Gleaming e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

    Embed from Getty Images

    16:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON (NAP) @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor), Indestructible e/w @ 50/1 (General)
    17:00 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) BRING ON THE NIGHT @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill), Themaxwecan e/w @ 40/1 (General)
    17:35 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Francesco Clemente @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor)
    18:10 – Copper Horse Handicap – Absurde @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips – The Top Three

    Five days. 35 races. Five articles.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Royal Ascot 2023 is upon us and despite my sheer excitement for the first flag fall, the nerves for my daily articles are in the back of my mind.

    Over the last five weeks, from 32 points stakes, 28.65 points of profit have been achieved at a return of investment of just under 90%.

    That is a lovely feeling, but the Royal meeting is the true acid test and I’m taking it in my stride, approaching the challenge head-on.

    So, let’s dive into Tuesday’s The Top Three article on Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    Coventry Stakes (3:05) – Bobsleigh @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pts EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    I feel almost like an uninvited guest to an ultra-exclusive party by talking about a horse that isn’t Asadna or River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes.

    The story of the week on Racing Twitter has been the debate surrounding these two horses involving some of the biggest profiles on the app and of course, a few people took liberties in creating some funny tweets.

    But steering away from this and the top two in the market, I believe BOBSLEIGH at 20/1 with William Hill offers up a little bit of value.

    Like River Tiber and Givemethebeatboys, the two-year-old by Elzaam is unbeaten in two runs and already has the experience of performing on the biggest stage, winning the opening contest on Epsom Oaks day.

    Although Haatem’s misfortune at the starting stalls benefited him, Richard Hannon’s thrice-raced colt headed for home first over Bobsleigh yet found himself comfortably passed in the final furlongs.

    Jockey Charlie Bishop was always confident on his mount despite being six lengths off the pace at the three-furlong pole and I think that a first start on an arrow-straight track could see him continue to progress as at both Epsom and Brighton, he showed inexperience around a bend.

    Embed from Getty Images

    There are bigger talking horses in the race who could have a bigger potential, but as for right here, right now, Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner could be one to cause a small upset in the first two-year-old race of the meeting.

     

    St James’s Palace Stakes (4:20) – Indestructible @ 50/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    If you thought 20/1 was big about Bobsleigh, the 50/1 about Indestructible in the feature race of the day is massive in my eyes.

    When you consider that, Kevin Stott, his rider, admitted that “nothing really went his way in the 2000 Guineas as he was bumped out of the stalls, got in behind horses, and he didn’t love the ground” in his latest William Hill blog, I think forgiving his last run is acceptable.

    Then just a small look back to his win in the Craven Stakes victory shows that both The Foxes and Mostabshir won on their next start with the latter now a general 9/1 shot for the same race.

    Although Chaldean beat him twice as a two-year-old, soft ground contributed to his second loss and the other saw them separated by just half a length, so the price difference is too big.

    In that same article quoted above, Stott went on to say: “I think Indestructible has got a massive race in him at Ascot – I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets very close.”

    Bold words for a 50/1 shot and it’s something I can’t get enough of on Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    Ascot Stakes (5:00) – Calling The Wind @ 12/1 with Boylesport – 1.5pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    My final fancy of the three on Royal Ascot Day 1 comes in the big handicap of the day.

    Without recycling words from Friday’s Ante-post Analysis piece, CALLING THE WIND provides a good betting angle in the Ascot Stakes Handicap.

    The one piece of information that I didn’t have on Friday is the draw from this Authorized gelding and out of stall 13, there should be no worries about him getting a fair trip through the 2m4f contest.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Once rated 105, Richard Hughes’ seven-year-old runs off 99 on Tuesday and with Billy Loughnane’s claim on his side as well, that’s a mark of 96, six pounds below his second in the valuable November Handicap at Doncaster in November 2021.

    Back at a fairer track of Ascot and on better ground, the chance of Calling The Wind is obvious with his falling handicap mark and having been as big as 25/1 ante-post, it seems the market also agrees.

  • Four To Follow: Catch That, Paddy!

    Four To Follow: Catch That, Paddy!

    This week, the eyes of the sporting nation is on Edgbaston as The Ashes gets underway, read our preview here, which puts the racing towards the back of our minds. It’s a quiet week, but there’s action from York and Sandown to get stuck into, including a big sprint handicap. Here’s four to follow this weekend.

    SATURDAY

    Better Be Quick

    Embed from Getty Images

    York – 3:05 – Race To The Ebor Grand Cup (Listed) – QUICKTHORN @ 7/4 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetUK)

    The ground at York won’t be similar to the Ashes wicket this weekend. Hard and fast, dust will be flying. And one that could scorch the turf is Quickthorn, who’s name suggests is pretty fast. His Yorkshire Cup win, which was his last, was just under three and a half minutes, which was considered fast by the clock. He also looks to be the horse that is most suited to firm ground, despite never winning on the surface. Jason Hart picks up the ride in decent form, and last rode him when desperately losing the 2021 Ebor to Sonnyboyliston. It’s not a great renewal of the race, and the field shouldn’t be able to keep up.

    Caught Paddy, Bowled Ryan

    Embed from Getty Images

    York – 3:40 – Macmillan Sprint Heritage Handicap – Catch The Paddy @ 10/1 (10Bet)

    Once again, the firm ground will play a key factor in this sprint. High draws should favour, but don’t forget the low numbers too, they’ve dominated the last few years. But the pace looks to come from the high draws, and Catch The Paddy will be up for it. Firm ground is his friend, after winning last season over C&D in a 2-Y-O handicap. The form from the Gimcrack has worked a treat, and almost paid off at the Dante meeting. He’s been risen a lenient 2lbs, and might be hard to stop on the rattling ground at York. Kevin Ryan could discover his form he left behind at York last May.

    There are also two Tim Easterby runners, who just adores having winners in Yorkshire, and had a purple patch in this race between 2013 and 2017, winning three out of five. He runs Spirit Of Applause, who’s form shows that firm ground is perfect for him. Despite being at his highest mark, he has been dealt a good card in the weights. He’s drawn on the inside in stall six, which won’t be a problem, and can keep the Yorkshire winners coming for the Easterby team. The Great Habton trainer has had seven of his last nine winners in God’s Own County. 12/1 is a general price.

    Buccabay also looks an interesting each-way shout. Harry Davies is a great claiming jockey, having a Saturday winner last week at Haydock. Eve Johnson-Houghton is in good form too. A great partnership like that can produce a winner, and Buccabay looks to be on the improve. Fourth at Windsor shook a few more cobwebs off, and can pick up a place at 20/1 (General).

    Buick And Boughey To Scurry Away

    Embed from Getty Images

    Sandown – 2:50 – Scurry Stakes (Listed) – Perdika @ 3/1 (General)

    I’ve been following this horse for a while, and she came into her own when winning at Chantilly last time out. The ground described was ‘good’, but as is with French going readings they are always wrong. Good means good-to-firm in our reading. Which might explain why she’s always not got close enough to the winner. Firm ground is unexplored territory in this country, but it looks like her friend, along with the allowances she receives. A high draw is not bad on the sprint track at Sandown, particularly on firm ground.

    Watch out for Katey Kontent who loves the firm ground, after winning her first two races on it as a juvenile. She’s a quick horse, and could set a blistering time if she’s on song. Might be worth to have theses two in a reverse forecast too. But she’s overpriced at 18/1 (BetVictor).

    SUNDAY

    Running Redemption

    Embed from Getty Images

    Chantilly – PRIX DE DIANE (GROUP ONE) – Running Lion @ 11/4 (Unibet, Betfred)

    My Oaks pick Running Lion didn’t fancy running in the English Oaks, which caused Oisin Murphy to give us his best John McEnroe impression. But David Howden revealed before the Epsom Classic that this was the preferred target. She has plenty of talent, there’s no doubt, and can run on the ground if the French haven’t deceived us with the going report again. Blue Rose Cen is her main rival after her success in the French 1000 Guineas, and may look for bigger things for the Head team. Novakai would also be good each-way money, after Soul Sister pumped up the Musidora form. Novakai, for Karl Burke, is 25/1 (BetUK)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Northern Territory

    Four To Follow: Northern Territory

    This week is the come-down from Epsom, and the build-up starts for Royal Ascot. But there is still racing to be run, and this Saturday the action comes from up North. The John of Gaunt is the feature at Haydock, whilst at Beverley it’s early two-year-old action on Hilary Needler Day. Here is Saturday’s Four To Follow.

    The Forza Is Strong

    Haydock: 2:25 – Better Betting With Sky Bet Handicap – Forza Orta @ 15/2 (Boylesports, Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Kevin Ryan hasn’t had a winner since the Dante Festival, which is odd for trainer like him. He’s normally a shrewd operator, but maybe the handicapper has just got the better of him of late. But Forza Orta represents a great chance for the Hambleton trainer. The firm ground won’t be problem for Forza Orta, with one win and two seconds on the going. Plus he’s on a respectable mark, one pound higher than his last winning mark. It was also the same rating when he was eighth in last year’s race, but the ground wasn’t rattling that day. It will be today so be prepared to watch him fly.

    Keep an eye out for Live Your Dream, representing Godolphin and Saeed bin Suroor. He’s been off the track for 609 days, last seen finishing towards the rear in the 2021 Cesarewitch. Firm ground is his preferred ground and his mark of 100 doesn’t put him at the top of the weights. Each-way swing at 12/1 (10Bet, BetVictor)

    The Stars Could Align

    Haydock: 3:35 – John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group Three) – The Astrologist @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Everyone’s eyes lit up when they saw an Aussie sprinter turn up at the Dante Festival. But The Astrologist didn’t ruffle any feathers finishing in the middle of the pack. On his form, he came name near to scalping a Group One sprint in Dubai, but in reality, he’s a Group Three level sprinter. And this being a Group Three, you feel that this is his level. Firm ground will help him, and the seven furlong trip won’t be a problem either, with his last win coming over seven down under. Ryan Moore has been riding out of his skin lately and gets the leg up again on the foreign raider.

    Bermuda In Bloom

    Beverley: 2:05 – Hilary Needler Fillies’ Stakes – Flora Of Bermuda @ 5/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

    Embed from Getty Images

    There is one rule about Beverley for anyone wanting to put a bet on. If your horse is drawn high, you can forget it. Near side horses power up the hill to win a flurry of races. But three horses bucked the trend when winning from high-drawn stalls. The other thing is that these two-year-old winners are all by sprinters. They are all bred to be sprinters, not to be classic winners. Which brings me to Flora of Bermuda; by Dark Angel (Sprint-bred); Drawn in stall two (Low Draw) and has an in-form jockey in Oisin Murphy teaming up with Andrew Balding. It’s a slight negative that Balding trains him, as the last nine winners have all been trained up North. But, clearly, Balding thinks highly of this horse to bring her to the Westwood, and she’s been dealt a decent hand.

    From Bombay to Beverley

    Beverley: 3:15 – bet365 Two Year Old Trophy – Bombay Bazaar @ 100/30 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetVictor, William Hill)

    Embed from Getty Images

    If we apply the small checklist for Beverley sprint winners to Bombay Bazaar he is by a sprinter, Kodiac, he is drawn low, in stall three, and he is trained up North by Richard Fahey. To make him even more appealing, he’s a C&D winner. Breaking well out of stall eight, he sat in behind the leaders, waited for a gap, got the gap and couldn’t be caught. He certainly came on from his debut at Thirsk. Stable jockey Oisin Orr gets the leg up instead of Jack Garrity, but Orr will know him well from home and should deliver another good win for the Fahey team.

    The very best of luck!

    And, FORZA INTERNAZIONALE!!