Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • ITV Racing Best Bets – The Top Three

    ITV Racing Best Bets – The Top Three

    Although we are in the no man’s land between the Derby and Royal Ascot, ITV Racing are heading to Haydock to cover a decent day at the northern track.

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    The racing isn’t vintage, yes, but there are some standout bets for this week’s The Top Three column.

    But first, let’s review last week.

     

    Derby Weekend Review

    It’s the fourth week of the series and with 22.40 points of profit from 23 points staked at a ROI of 97%, I am feeling happy about how things have gone.

    Last week saw PROSPEROUS VOYAGE (7/4) made it two from two for the best bets over the last two weeks and thanks to a good second from SILVER SWORD (12/1) in the Lester Piggott Handicap, last week produced a profit of 5.65 points after we staked one point on WAIPIRO (20/1) in the Derby.

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    It’s been a good first three weeks and we are looking ahead to Haydock on ITV Racing to continue the run going.

     

    1:15 Haydock – EQUILATERAL at 3/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    Two weeks ago, DRAMATISED represented the best bet of the week in the Temple Stakes and this week, the runner-up from that day will be the same in the Listed Achilles Stakes.

    He was the flag bearer in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis article at 5/1 and even though he is now 3/1 with William Hill, I’m still with EQUILATERAL in the opener.

    Two weeks ago, the advantageous high-draw bias at Haydock helped Charlie Hills’ Equiano gelding and out of stall 10 this Saturday, that same thing could occur again.

    Also, he gave 11 pounds away to the winner last time out when unfancied in the market and Frankie Dettori gave him an easy-enough ride having only used the whip twice before a hands and heels ride in the final three-quarters of a furlong.

    It will be tough to stop Lanfranco and EQUILATERAL in the opener on Saturday and he is the best bet of the ITV Racing action.

     

    1:50 Haydock – SILVER SAMURAI at 8/1 with BetVictor – 1.5pt EW

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    I’m going to the following race for my next bet and SILVER SAMURAI looks a good price at 8/1 on BetVictor.

    The Cable Bay six-year-old is a Haydock winner as well as placing over a mile at the course in June 2020 so the track will suit.

    Looking at more recent form, Marco Botti’s competitor last won in May 2022 on good ground off a three-pound lower mark, a day where he bolted up under Ben Curtis in facile fashion.

    He improved to a mark of 97 after the victory, but following two mediocre runs in May of this year, he now has an official rating of 95.

    Despite Botti’s poor run of form recently, the 8/1 with BetVictor is a good price and he will be tough to beat if back to his best.

     

    3:35 Haydock – JUMBY at 11/4 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    How many times can a horse who finished second-last in a 12-runner race impress you?

    The answer to that question is not many. However, that did occur in the Lockinge and because of that, amongst other reasons, I will be backing JUMBY at 11/4 with William Hill in the John Of Gaunt Stakes.

    Looking at the Lockinge alone where the five-lowest drawn horses finished 8th, 10th, 11th, and 12th, the New Bay entire (drawn four) was running a great race for seven furlongs of the Group 1 contest before fading late in which was his second-ever race at a mile.

    Therefore, the return to seven furlongs this weekend will suit well having won three times at the trip, all on quick ground.

    Furthermore, in his season-opener at Newmarket, he missed the break catastrophically and stayed on well over six furlongs when beaten by three lengths.

    Saturday’s feature at Haydock is the weakest field he would have faced since his third in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket eight runs ago and with race fitness and conditions on his side, Eve Johnson Houghton’s stable star has a great chance to start his season off well.

  • Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    After a Frankie Friday, it’s the big day on the Downs. Derby Day. It’s one of the most unpredictable yet. Arrest went into favouritism last night, but is he the one to win the big race? And who will win the the Dash? All those questions will be answered, as we take a look at four of the Best Bets on Derby Day.

    12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Kolasi @ 3/1

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    The aperitif to the Derby is the Diomed. And it doesn’t look the best of renewals, but Kolasi looks the best horse in the race. She is the only three-year-old, and is receiving a lot of weight from her rivals. Her form from four starts suggests that she’ll like the firm ground, and that she can handle undulation. There are plenty of unknowns and this is a step up in class. But the field, on paper at least, don’t look the best quality and are there for the taking.

    1:30 – BETFRED DERBY (GROUP ONE) – DUBAI MILE @ 18/1

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    The more I Iook at this horse, the more I think he’s overpriced. He’s a Group One winner as a two-year-old, beating Arrest by a head, and he’s versatile to the ground. On ratings, he’s only behind Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Charlie Johnston has been firing in the winners and has an excellent strike rate. Plus, Ahmad Al Shaikh, the owner, has had a decent record in the last three Derby’s, including Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal. His breeding suggests he’ll fall short of this trip, but Johnston horses always dig deep and can push further. The Dam’s sire was High Chapparal, so he does have some Epsom blood running though him. He has a decent draw in stall five, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I also like White Birch, for John Joseph Murphy. He lost by a neck to The Foxes at York and on the replay, he seems to be the one to take out of the race. Passenger looked to be staying on late, but didn’t seem to carry on much after the winning post. The Foxes looked to tough it out over the trip and not go much further. White Birch looks to be the one to take out. He’s by Ulysees, which means he will stay. His half-brother stays 1m 3F, which suggests he’ll get the trip. He’ll have to overcome a tricky-ish draw in stall two, but he looks to be one to watch at an each-way price of 12/1.

    Personally, I think the principles are hyped up. Auguste Rodin finished 12th of 14 in the Guineas. That’s the worst result of a Derby trial for any horse. How can he be deemed favourite? Favourites also have a terrible record in the Derby, in recent years. Aidan O’Brien can work miracles, but after such a disappointing run, he can’t be trusted. Arrest ran well at Chester, and he has the Frankie factor, but the ground is massively against him. John Gosden said Arrest will need a lot of rain overnight. He won’t get it.

    Which means by default, Military Order gets the nod. His stamina will be tested on firm ground, but he is a full brother to Adayar, and that points him in the right direction to win. But I think the ground might catch him out. He’ll certainly have a crack at the top three, so he gets in the tricast.

    Tricast: Dubai Mile, White Birch, Military Order

    2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Prosperous Voyage @ 11/8

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    Prosperous Voyage may not have returned well, but everything seems to be in her favour here. She relishes firm ground, she’s a course winner and the top-rated horse. She will have blown the cobwebs away at Newmarket and should be back to her best at Epsom and Frankie will make amends for Derby disappointment.

    3:20 – Epsom DASH (Heritage Handicap) – Clarendon House @ 15/2

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    It’s a little bit of a lottery the Epsom Dash, and it’s the same this year. But it seems the stars have aligned for this horse. Stall two has proven to be a good draw over the years, he’ll be right up with the pace, and has won five times on firm ground. The stable are starting to turn a corner with a winner last Friday and a second during the week, and Danny Muscutt may be riding on a high from his Derby heroics. If not, he’ll want to win this race. The form from the York dash played out last week, with Mondammej just beaten narrowly by Chipstead. It could work wonders here.

    Each-way plays are the way to go for the Dash, and Lihou is one of them. Middle to high draws are the favoured places to be, Lihou is drawn in 18. Plus, he is at an advantage, winning at C&D earlier this season at the Riband meeting. That was on soft ground, but he can perform on firmer. He’s also, only 2lbs higher than that win in April, and is running fresh off a narrow second at Goodwood. A good play at 12/1.

    Another play is Look Out Louis who has things in his favour over the flying five. In September, he won in similar conditions over the five furlongs at Haydock, and is only one pound higher than that winning mark. He looks to have blown the cobwebs away since the Chester run, and can be back to his best on the Downs, from a decent draw in six, at 12/1.

    The very best of luck on Derby Day!

    (And, Come On United for the FA Cup!!)

    All prices are from Betfred, proud sponsors of the Epsom Derby

  • Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    It’s the biggest two days of the flat season as the racing public descend on the Surrey Downs of Epsom. Day One sees two group ones, including the Betfred Oaks which could end up being the form race for the year. Here’s four of the Best Bets from Friday’s meeting.

    2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap – Fantastic Fox @ 6/1

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    Everything looks in his favour today. He should have his ground, he’s stepping down in trip back to his favoured mile, and he has a great jockey aboard to overcome a wide draw. His mark is five pounds lower than it was when he came third in last year’s race, and it’s a pound lower than his previous winning mark too. The only slight negative is that he is a Roger Varian horse, but the tide does look to be turning after he had a decent showing at Brighton on Tuesday. Fantastic Fox hasn’t won since he was a three-year-old, but he is due one, and this looks like the perfect race to break his duck.

    Austrian Theory is a good each-way price at 17/2, after his third at Chester last week. Charlie Johnston has a runner in the Derby and this could kick start a good week on the Downs for the Middleham trainer. Austrian Theory has had three runs already, but is stepping up to his best, after a good third at Chester, which could be a good prep for Epsom to handle the twists and turns. He’s on a good mark and the ground should be near perfect for him to challenge the top three.

    3:10 – DahlBury Coronation Cup (Group One) – Emily Upjohn @ 5/2

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    Emily Upjohn, should, be favourite. Both Westover and she handled Epsom really well, but Emily Upjohn was the one to take out of last year’s Oaks. She didn’t follow up in the King George at Ascot, but finished on a high last term. With a slight allowance it puts her on terms with Westover and Frankie is going to be fired up at his last Derby meeting. It’s a small field so an inside draw won’t matter too much, and she’s backable at the price she is.

    Little word on the outsider Tunnes, the German raider. His rating puts him on terms with Hurricane Lane, who has had a sketchy start to the season. Reading his form, he is a Group One German winner by 10 lengths. The ground may be a little firm, but surely his hat has to be thrown into the mix. Remember what happened with Torquator Tasso in the 2021 Arc?

    3:45 – Betfred Handicap – Marhba The Champ @ 9/2

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    William Buick takes the ride on the Kevin Ryan colt, and passes up the ride on Godolphin’s Honiton. He managed to fend off Marie’s Diamond at York, and has only been raised a lenient 2lbs. He holds a decent draw, and Ryan has put a tongue strap on him for the first timeHis performance at York was one of the best handicap performances of the week, and he can replicate it here too.

    Masekela has been thrown into this handicap, and seems to have been looked over. Fourth in last year’s Derby, handled the track well and his handicap rating has dropped below 100 for the first time. The ground will be in his favour and it’s a pairing we have seen before, Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. He will have to overcome a slight disadvantage with the draw, but it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. An each-way price of 11/1 isn’t bad either.

    4:30 – BETFRED OAKS (GROUP ONE) – RUNNING LION @ 11/2

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    Let’s start with the top two in the market. Savethelastdance was ultra-impressive at Chester, but what did she beat? None of the horses were bothered in catching her and she cantered to win by 22 lengths, in bottomless ground. It was the same ground for her maiden win at Leopardstown. She also lacks the experience for me. I don’t think three runs in a horses’ lifetime can prepare you enough for the challenge of Epsom.

    Soul Sister also falls into that category of lack of experience, although her win at York was better than Savethelastdances’ at Chester. She beat an experienced filly in Novakai and ran on well after the finish line. It’s also a question of how quickly can the horse be turned around, as York was only two weeks’ ago. The other thing is the breeding. She’s by Frankel, who as a sire, has only managed won Epsom Oaks winner out of the vast progeny he has had.

    This led me to Running Lion. Roaring Lion has a select but quality progeny, and has had a successful May in terms of winners. Running Lion won really well at Newmarket when we last saw her, but there is a question of stepping up in trip. But her pedigree shows that she is related to Cozone, who stayed two miles, and was out of Bella Nouf, which is Running Lion’s sire. This tells me there is staying power within the family, and she can prove it today. She has plenty of experience under her belt, and hasn’t been over-raced either. This has feels like a target for her and she can triumph over her stablemate, and the short-priced favourite.

    The very best of luck on Oaks Day!

    All prices are from Betfred, official sponsor of the Epsom Oaks and Derby

  • Four Bets To Follow Dont Be Dower

    Four Bets To Follow Dont Be Dower

    After a chaotic Saturday, comes a calmer Sunday. We have more time to hone in on the Curragh and dissect the Best Bets from Ireland, on Irish 1000 Guineas Day.

    2:45 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Luxembourg @ 3/1 (William Hill)

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    This may be a small field, but it is bursting with quality. I was with Vadeni all of last season, and I’d love to see how he has matured now he’s four. I was with Bay Bridge when he caused the biggest upset of all last season, when beating Baaeed, but it was a disappointing reappearance in the Prix Ganay. Luxembourg won the Irish Champion Stakes last season, and was pitted as an underdog against Vadeni. But he was mighty impressive, and couldn’t follow up in his final start in the Arc. He didn’t impress first time out this season, but I suspect he was woolly and not up to full fitness. I’ve no doubt today he will be, and has the beating of the top two in the market.

    3:15 – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group Two) – Insinuendo @ 3/1 (William Hill)

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    This is Insinuendo’s level. She loves the Curragh as well, and has mountains of form to go on. She was disappointing, only managing fourth last time out, but she has the bounce back in her. She drops back from a mile and two, to just a mile which suits her perfectly, plus the drying ground shouldn’t be too bad, so long as there is a bit of cut for her to go on.

    Keep an eye out for Star Girls Aalmal. She might not look group two level, but she did finish fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas last year, and runs well on drying ground. Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which can be a positive and she’s every right to run a big race at 12/1 (William Hill)

    3:50 – Tattersalls Irish 1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Tahiyra @ 8/15 (General)

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    Tahiyra is a cut above the rest for me. Dermot Weld said after her run in the English 1000 Guineas that the ground ‘slightly nullified’ her, which is her excuse. If that is what we have to blame, there should be no excuses for her getting her win today. Of course, people will look to Meditate as the value, but Meditate was beaten 11-and-a-half lengths by Tahiyra. Meditate is a good horse in her own right, but when Tahiyra is around, she can’t seem to get the better of her. Even at odds on, I have to take Tahiyra.

    If you are looking for trends, then here is one. Out of the last ten running’s, six of the winners ran in the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas trial. There’s only one horse this year who ran in that race. Dower House. She may not look the best pick on paper after failing to win a listed contest last time out. But, she is a sister to Churchill and Clemmie. She has the pedigree of a 1000 Guineas winner, but maybe not the profile. She might be in here as a pace setter for Meditate, but stranger things have happened… 50/1 (William Hill)

    My tricast would be; Tahiyra; Meditate; Dower House

    4:25 – Gallinule Stakes (Group Three) – Drumroll @ 6/5 (William Hill)

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    Ryan Moore. Aidan O’Brien. Saxon Warrior. Favourite. Need I say more? If Paddington wins the 2000 Guineas of the Saturday it would make Drumroll odds-on. Possibly Derby horse? Maybe not, but watch out for the entries for the Irish Derby.

    The very best of luck.

    (Odds are correct of 18:30 on Friday 26/05)

  • Four To Follow Royally Good Guineas

    Four To Follow Royally Good Guineas

    It’s a busy weekend across both sides of the Irish Sea. Over at the Curragh, it’s the first of their classics with the 2000 Guineas taking place on Saturday, featuring some British raiders. Whilst back in Blighty, Haydock takes centre stage with two Group sprints, with York and Goodwood supporting. There are loads of races to choose from, here are four of the Best Bets on Saturday.

    2:25 Haydock – Betfred Silver Bowl (Heritage Handicap) – Defence Of Fort @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

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    I’m not a fan of three-year-old handicaps at this stage of the season, because many of them haven’t raced already, and are yet to discover their true handicap mark. That being said, Defence Of Fort has some things going for him. For one, the ground will be perfect for him, as his only win in three starts came on firm ground. The form from the Solario managed to work itself out, with the winner going to the Guineas – but not performing well – and the second winning next time out. Peter Chapple-Hyam doesn’t have the biggest of stables, but that doesn’t mean to say they’re not quality racehorses. Jason Watson managed to end a bad run by picking up a winner this week, so things are string to work out, and 7/1 isn’t a bad shout of a price.

    3:30 Haydock – Betfred Temple Stakes (Group Two) – Dramatised @ 5/1 (General)

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    The key form that Dramatised has is the last year’s Lowther. Mawj has gone on to win the Guineas, which boosts the form of the race massively. Matilde Picotte has also added to the form, after being placed twice this year too. Six furlongs that day looked a bit too step, and five should be her trip from now on. She gets both the three-year-old and mares’ allowance, with no penalty. William Buick is the eye-catching jockey booking as well. The Platinum Queen had a great campaign for the Richard Fahey team last year, but I’ve reservations about her being moved the Roger Varian stable.

    3:15 York – William Hill Bronte Cup (Group Three) – Moon Daisy @ 16/1 (William Hill)

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    Mimikyu seems the most likely winner of the race. She’s the best rated horse in the race. But she’s lightly raced and after a break of 50+ days, she never seems to do well on reappearance. Moon Daisy has had two runs this year, and beat Emily Dickinson last time out when finishing fourth in a group three in Ireland. Her last win came on firm ground, which should be the ground run on at York, and the opposition – bar Mimikyu – don’t seems to look group three level on paper. Also, Donnacha O’Brien won’t be sending over Moon Daisy just to get a run out of her. It’s a winnable race, even at inflated odds.

    3:40 Curragh – Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal @ 5/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

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    Royal Scotsman ran brilliantly in the 2000 Guineas a few weeks ago. There’s no doubt about that. What did surprise me is that he’s coming here, instead of being layed off for the St James’s Palace at the Royal meeting. That being said, he is the one to beat. Hi Royal ran a big race, but is 115 his true mark? He’s the likely pace setter, but can he do what he did at Newmarket again? I’m not sure.

    For the Irish 2000 Guineas, the winner comes, primarily, from two different races. Either the English 2000 Guineas, or Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown. Proud And Regal, went the Derby trial route. It was clear that he ran well, but the ground was not for him. Today, it will be. He has form behind Al Riffa, who would have scored them here, had he not been scratched, and he likes the Curragh. He hasn’t finished outside the top three on all starts, and comes from a decent family who can get further.

    Galeron is one I’d consider at an each-way price, after coming here and winning the Goffs Million last September. 14/1 (BetVictor, William Hill) are good odds, considering he ran fourth in the English 2000 at 150/1.

    If you begged me for a tricast, it would be; Proud And Regal; Royal Scotsman; Galeron.

    The very best of luck, on a busy Saturday.

  • 14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    It’s Irish Guineas weekend and I’m looking forward to the next few days, not just for the action at the Curragh, but some great races from Haydock and York have perked my interest.

    But first, let’s take a look back at last week’s The Top Three article.

    Hands up, I got My Prospero wrong. The return to a mile wasn’t his gig, unfortunately, and the way he stayed on to the line having looked a lost cause at the two-furlong pole suggested to me that he will be tough to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    https://twitter.com/simonmilham/status/1659962615441833985

    And as for Loyal Touch, my sole representative in the London Gold Cup after Silver Sword was declared a non-runner, he finished just three lengths off the winner, who looks like a very good horse, in ninth; we didn’t get paid out on the day, but I’ll be keen to keep with him on his next start.

    The two losses put us at a small loss heading into week three on the P&L, but it is early stages and we are down 0.375 to a one-pound level stake.

    Anyway, let’s dive into Irish Guineas weekend with four horses to shout about.

    3:15 Haydock (today) – GET AHEAD at 15/8 with BetUK – 3pt win

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    Kicking off Irish Guineas weekend, I’m with a horse who I have mentioned for Bestofbets.com before and I’m retaining the faith, as well as slightly cheating by putting up a horse for Friday rather than Saturday, but she is my best bet of the weekend so it’s only right to be on this list.

    GET AHEAD was the NAP for me at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes and having been put up at double-figure odds before shortening to 7/1, the four-year-old went off at 10/1 due to the late rain that dampened her chances.

    Still, only being beaten four lengths by Vadream is not a bad result.

    Fast forward to today and she is set to make a step up in trip to six furlongs and run on the good to firm ground of Haydock, something that is music to my ears.

    I won’t go over her case again in the same detail as I did before, though you can click here to read the explanation from last time out, but it looks like conditions seem to be in her favour today and that step up in trip should suit well on pedigree (she is a half-sister to the Guineas winner Chaldean).

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    She has also shaped like a horse who wouldn’t mind the test of six furlongs son at 7/4, Get Ahead is the best bet of the weekend for me.

    2:40 York (Saturday) – ZARZYNI at 14/1 with BetVictor – 0.5pt EW

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    If Get Ahead makes us proud today, this could have a link to the chances of ZARZYNI in the valuable five-furlong handicap at York tomorrow as Silky Wilkie, the four-year who was ahead of Get Ahead at Newmarket, beat Zarzyni on his last start. That is collateral form, admittedly, but it still counts for something.

    Unfortunately for myself, and others who have had enough of me talking about horse racing, this David & Nicola Barron-trained six-year-old is a cliff horse of mine, however, I think today could be the day to catch him.

    Examining his last run on good to soft, a going description he maybe isn’t the most effective on, he had a horrid run through from the rear of the field and once it opened up, Silky Wilkie was too far gone and Ben Curtis was able to guide him home to finish a staying-on fifth.

    The handicapper kindly dropped him one pound for the run and he rocks up to York on Saturday with an official rating of 96, three pounds below his last winning mark.

    Therefore, with a run under his belt and race fitness hopefully at 100%, the 14/1 for Zarzyni is attractive and is worth the each-way bet at York.

    3:00 Haydock (Saturday) – Little Big Bear at 7/4 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Little Big Bear is the joint-shortest-priced horse I will be backing this weekend and again, he is another whom I have mentioned in a Bestofbets.com article, however, that time it was for the Guineas and tomorrow, he returns to a former-winning distance of six furlongs.

    The run at Newmarket was too bad to be true; he was keen from the start, had to deal with soft ground (which is still a small unknown), was trying a mile for the first time, and he was struck into, something that resulted in him being lame after the race. Pick and choose which excuse you want to use for the Guineas because he does have them, and they are real excuses.

    I’ve seen a few people wonder if the son of No Nay Never has trained on from his superstar two-year-old season, and I see no reason to suggest why he wouldn’t have.

    His dam, Adventure Seeker, only raced as a three-year-old, as did his half-brother American Graffiti, and she won a Listed event in France on her penultimate start.

    Of course, his sire was unbeaten as a juvenile before losing on his first start at three, but he still won the Group 3 Woodford in Keeneland before finishing second in a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, a run that was his career-best performance on RPRs.

    Aidan O’Brien’s European champion two-year-old has already beaten Bradsell, who reappears tomorrow in the Sandy Lane, and there aren’t many others in the contest that would worry me, so I’m hoping that ‘The Bear’ can put in a performance to savour at Haydock tomorrow for the Irish on their Guineas weekend.

    3:30 Haydock (Saturday) – Dramatised at 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Remember when we all thought Dramatised was a world-beater after her Royal Ascot win in the Queen Mary?

    Although the form may not be the strongest now, the head-to-head record between Dramatised and The Platinum Queen reads 2-0 in favour of the Karl Burke runner having also beaten tomorrow’s favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Both times, The Platinum Queen was running off the same weight as the Showcasing filly and both times she was well beaten, so with the now Roger Varian-trained three-year-old set to give five pounds away, I think there is plenty of reason to take her on with Dramatised and hope that the scoreline lengthens by the time Saturday is finished.

    Of course, there are 12 other runners for Dramatised to try and beat, but similarly, they are having to give weight away to a horse that is officially the joint-third highest-rated horse in the contest and I think the angle that she is coming into the race fresh and on the quick ground should suit very well.

    If you can get 5/1 anywhere, the each-way play doesn’t look too bad at all, but I will be siding with the 9/2 available with Betvictor for Dramatised in the Group 2 Temple Stakes as a win bet.

    P&L: -0.375 (after two weeks)

  • York Dante & Lockinge – Ante-post analysis

    York Dante & Lockinge – Ante-post analysis

    Some would call it the first day of the summer, others are just happy to see some good, competitive racing on our TV screens.

    And who could blame them for being excited; the Dante and Lockinge in the same week is always a tremendous sight.

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    As always, I will dive into my best long-range plays for the upcoming week, but only one of them is ante-post due to how the timings of everything happening this week. Apologies, however, the prices are still very decent.

    Trying to roll with the momentum of Call My Bluff’s third in the Chester Cup (advised at 12/1, went off 11/4), here is my look at both York and Newbury this week.

     

    Flying back home

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    The first horse to talk about comes in the opening race of day two at the York Dante Meeting as I’m taking a swing at http://gty.im/540676544  at 12/1 with William Hill.

    The Lindum York Handicap over the fast five furlongs is a competitive race, as would be expected with £18,039 on offer to the winner, but there are a few at the top of the market I would be keen to take on.

    Whenthedealinsdone seems to have his best form on softer ground, the same goes for Designer, and Korker won at York last year but is five pounds higher today.

    Plenty in here could easily hit the frame, but at the top of my list is the Robert Cowell-trained five-year-old sporting the infamous colours of Middleham Park Racing.

    Although he is halfway to double digits in age, he is still relatively lightly raced having not taken to the track until he was a three-year-old.

    He comes into tomorrow fresh having not raced since last September which works well considering he was second to Raasel on seasonal reappearance last year and he won his first two races on the track as a three-year-old; he actually gave away five pounds to Raasel in that Goodwood race before the Michael Appleby competitor would go on to achieve a career-high mark of 108 just two months later.

    As for Clarendon House, he is only three pounds higher than he was at the start of last year and he looks to be well-handicapped with conditions in his favour on Dante day.

     

    The fantastic Foxes

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    I’m sticking with day two at York and it’s the festival’s namesake, the Group 2 Dante Stakes, where I’m heading to next as THE FOXES at 13/2 with William Hill is a good play.

    Firstly, I better mention that I will also be playing DANCING MAGIC at any price north of 20/1 (28/1 is currently available) as he has the ability to step up with this increased distance, however, Andrew Balding’s charge is the main play for me.

    The Churchill three-year-old made a good start to the season in the Craven at Newmarket last month having beaten Dubai Mile, a subsequent Guineas fifth, at HQ at the end of last year.

    He steps up to 1m2f tomorrow, something that suits him best on pedigree as he is a full brother to Aidan O’Brien’s Perotan and is a half-brother to Bangkok, Tactic, and Matterhorn who all got further.

    It’s well known how high connections rate this horse, as shown by his name of ‘The Foxes’ for King Power Racing, and with a few unknowns in the field, he is the horse I like in the Dante.

     

    Live by the Sword

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    And finally, one of the big betting heats of the week is the ultra-competitive London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury on Saturday and I’m siding with SILVER SWORD at 10/1 with William Hill.

    Early-season three-year-old handicaps are always difficult to decipher as you always have to ask yourself the same questions. Have they trained on? Are they good when fresh? Is the two-year-old form actually that good?

    Luckily, the Dylan Cunha-trained grey answers all of those questions well.

    Firstly, sometimes it’s hard to tell if horses have trained on unless you have seen them yourself, but luckily Silver Sword has already been seen on track this season as he bolted up in a Southwell maiden 32 days ago.

    Furthermore, a scan of his pedigree would also suggest he should be better at three than at two as his sire, Charm Spirit, won three Group 1s as a three-year-old and his damsire, Rip Van Winkle, was a different animal at three thanks to his trio of efforts behind Sea The Stars in the Guineas, Derby, and Eclipse as well as his Sussex Stakes victory at Goodwood.

    Also, a look back at his two-year-old form proves to be a fruitful one as his fifth at odds of 250/1 to Military Order, the Epsom Derby ante-post second favourite, at Newmarket in October and second to Empress Wu, a 12/1 shot for today’s Musidora Stakes, at Lingfield in November reads well for a horse who has been given an opening mark of 82 by the handicapper.

    He is a standout bet in my eyes and hopefully can get Lockinge Day off to a good start.

  • Four To Follow Derby Trials & Victoria Cup

    Four To Follow Derby Trials & Victoria Cup

    Four To Follow takes us all around the country this week, as we get more Derby and Oaks trials from Lingfield. Big field handicap action comes from Ascot, and a trip up North for a Premier Handicap Hurdle. Here are my four selections for Saturday’s racing.

    ASCOT – 2:40, Victoria Cup (Premier Handicap) – Safe Voyage @ 14/1 (William Hill)

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    The Victoria Cup is one of many seven-furlong handicaps throughout the season, and somehow always favours those drawn high. Safe Voyage is one of those, and despite being a 10-year-old he seems to be running alright. He ran in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last week and came a respectable third. It shows he hasn’t lost any pace and can mix in with the best. The ground is soft after torrential rain, and should remain that way through Saturday, so ground isn’t a problem. He checks all the boxes, despite being an old boy.

    Spycatcher is another I quite like. Like Safe Voyage he ran last week at Thirsk, and ran to form. He stays at the same mark, with the same jockey on board and fits the profile of many of the previous winners of the race. He has had one run at Ascot, but was way above his level in Group Three company. This is more to his level and can overcome a low draw to be in the mix at the finish line. A decent each-way pick at 16/1 (Boylesports)

    One at a price I really like is Darkness for David O’Meara. Never count out O’Meara in any Ascot handicap, particularly later on in the season. He’s never managed to win this race, but Darkness is one who looks like he needs the soft ground. Given that he’s fully into his season, there isn’t a question about fitness, and his last run at Newmarket wasn’t bad at all, losing by two lengths into fourth. I’ll have a small wager at 33/1 (BetVictor)

    LINGFIELD – 3:00, Lingfield Oaks Trial – Eternal Hope @ 7/2 (William Hill)

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    Lingfield’s card on Saturday is now switched to the all-weather, which means it’s a little more of a level playing field. One who could benefit is the Godolphin runner Eternal Hope. She’s by Teofilo, who hasn’t yet sired an Oaks or Derby winner, but has sired many Group One winners. The damsire for this horse is Dubawi, so there is some staying form in the bloodline. She’s had two runs on the all-weather, and the form from her last run at Chelmsford was backed up by the second. However, on paper, this doesn’t look the strongest Oaks trial we’ve had.

    HAYDOCK – 3:15, Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Onemorefortheroad @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

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    Onemorefortheroad is finally below a mark of 130. What’s more, he’s at a winning mark of 127. And, despite a deluge of rain at Chester, the rain hasn’t hit Haydock and is set to go off good to soft which means that he’s got his ground. He’s had a slight layoff, and this race feels like it’s been targeted by Neil King. Jack Quinlan is back on board, and should deliver for the lightly raced Onemorefortheroad.

    Hurricane Ali takes the eye further down the market. He hasn’t been seen since November 2022, and reappears fresh and with plenty of form to perform on. He finished behind Filey Bay, who franked the form, as did El Borracho on the flat at Thirsk. Hurricane Ali is at the start of his season and isn’t too bad at this time of the year either. He’s on a good mark with 5lbs been taken off by Alan Doyle. Watch out for him at 25/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    LINGFIELD – 3:35, Lingfield Derby Trial – Military Order @ 11/10 (General)

    Once again, it doesn’t look the strongest trial on paper. But, Military Order is a deserved favourite after winning brilliantly on reappearance at Newbury. The breeding is unquestionable, by Frankel and a brother to Derby winner Adayar. There doesn’t look to be any challenge, and the real test for Military Order will be on the Downs in June.

    The very best of luck!

  • 33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    Welcome to a new weekly column of mine where I talk about my three best bets for the weekend’s action.

    Alongside my ante-post analysis piece that is released on Wednesdays looking at any potential early angles into marquee races, this regular content will be released on Fridays with all the confirmed weather and declarations information available to me to make my final judgments.

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    I’ve given myself a ‘points’ staking plan to keep track of how I have done and how confident each play will be, all of which will be recorded and put at the bottom of every article. No pressure then!

    So with the admin out of the way, let’s get into the action.

     

    ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 12/1 – 3:15 Haydock – 0.5pt EW

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    It may be the Flat season right now, but the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock has taken a small amount of my interest as I will be having a 0.5pt EW play on ONEMOREFORTHEROAD for Neil King and Jack Quinlan.

    Although his last win came in December 2021 in the Intermediate Hurdle, the eight-year-old has only raced seven times since and his third to Anna Bunina in the 2022 Scottish Champion Hurdle reads well considering John McConnell’s mare has improved 16lbs since.

    Although his last two efforts on Good ground have been poor, he has been dropped six pounds for them and he did most of his winning on Good ground in the early parts of his career.

    With a rating of 127, which is nine pounds below that third at Ayr in 2022 and his last winning mark, King’s charge in the highlight handicap hurdle is my main fancy in the contest.

     

    TOIMY SON 33/1 – 2:40 Ascot – 1pt EW

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    My second biggest play of the weekend comes in the ever-tricky Victoria Cup and I’m giving the rank-outsider of the field, TOIMY SON, a chance at 33/1 with William Hill.

    I backed this four-year-old Twilight Son colt last time out in the Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile and he looked to be too keen which ultimately downplayed his chances of winning the race.

    I was quite confident of a big run last month, unfortunately, the market was not in agreement with me as he drifted out on the exchanges and was sent off at an SP of 40/1.

    So, why am I giving him a chance this week in the Victoria Cup?

    Firstly, there is only a small window of opportunity to run this horse as he needs soft ground, something he will get at Ascot this week, but as the summer rolls into full view, that chance of rain and slower conditions will diminish.

    Secondly, he is back down in trip to seven furlongs, the distance he was last seen winning at in Longchamp last May and hopefully, he won’t be so keen over a shorter trip.

    And finally, French jockey Cristian Demuro is jocked up on the bay for his only ride of the day which is a big jockey booking from David Menusier as he was the pilot that guided Toimy Son to success in that Longchamp race last year, a race where he beat Txope who went on to win the German 1000 Guineas on her next start.

    Taking this all in and harking back to his runners-up effort behind Mangoustine, a future French 1000 Guineas winner, as a two-year-old, I think he can run a big race off a workable mark of 102 in the Victoria Cup.

     

    ANGEL BLEU 15/8 – 3:50 Haydock – 3pt Win

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    This position was taken by Sea Of Roses for the Lingfield Oaks Trial but the switch to all-weather has meant she was not declared, however, ANGEL BLEU is a more than worthy substitute.

    If you can ignore his last run in France, I think he should be odds-on and not just a shade below 2/1.

    Firstly, the ground at Haydock is set to be the best in the country as the official going description is Good to Soft with no rain in sight.

    Despite his win at Saint-Cloud in October 2021 on Very Soft ground, I think his best form comes on better surfaces as his four-length fifth to Baaeed in last year’s Sussex Stakes and third to Perfect Power in last year’s Greenham Stakes would suggest.

    His pedigree would back this statement up being by Dark Angel (the 2007 Middle Park winner on Good ground) out of a Galileo mare.

    Now a four-year-old and still at somewhere near his best as shown by his unlucky runners-up effort to Berkshire Shadow at Wolverhampton two starts ago, Ralph Beckett’s contender is best at the weight by six pounds to his nearest market rival, Al Mubhir, and with a sounder surface under his feet than his run last time out, I think he will be tough to beat at 15/8.

  • 12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    So, about last week. A story of hard luck.

    The best bet of the week, GET AHEAD, probably saw his best chances diminish when the lashing of rain came down though his sixth behind the runaway winner Vadream was still good and the handicapper has dropped him two pounds for the run. One to watch on better ground.

    And with LITTLE BIG BEAR, the Guineas experiment, plus the fact he was struck into and found to be lame post-race, saw his chances of a Classic disappear as well. A shame, but that is horse racing.

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    Despite that, we kick on into the Chester May Festival that is on ITV this week, and alongside Lingfield Derby and Oaks Trials on Saturday, this week is one to be excited by.

     

    No Bluff with his chances

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    I’m starting with the Chester Cup this week and although it may not be an ante-post play by the time this goes up, it still warrants me putting him up as CALL MY BLUFF at 12/1 is top of my shortlist.

    For starters, he is a proven horse around Chester thanks to his second in the Watergate Cup behind Emiyn last September on good to soft ground and his win at Chester in June 2021 also builds on the idea that he can handle the course well.

    That form on Good to Soft from September is also useful information as it is set to be slow ground throughout the meeting thanks to the rain expected on Thursday and Friday.

    Furthermore, his run last time out behind a Novel Legend, the ante-post favourite for the race who has missed out on a run by one place, reads well as the winner was race-fit coming into the contest while the six-year-old was coming off a 195-day break.

    His trainer, Dominic Ffrench Davis, has a 25% strike rate currently and John Egan, his rider when second at Chester three starts ago, is booked to do the steering.

    Taking that all in, 16/1 is a fair price.

     

    Sweet as a Rose

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    I have just the two horses to highlight this week and I’m going to Lingfield for the Oaks Trial on Saturday for my final fancy as SEA OF ROSES at 5/1 holds lots of interest.

    The field is full of unknowns and this Sea The Moon three-year-old is one of them having finished a good second behind the exciting Pensee Du Jour at the start of April in the Group 3 Prix Penelope.

    That run was very encouraging over 1m2f and she was running well to the wire on soft ground, hopefully meaning the 1m3f on Saturday in worsening conditions should be fine.

    Furthermore, she beat Infinite Cosmos at the backend of last season at Doncaster over a mile, form that looks very good after the Sir Michael Stoute three-year-old bolted up at Newmarket on her next start and is now the 7/1 second favourite.

    The Andrew Balding team like this three-year-old, who is very closely related to Chris Waller’s Group 3 winner Desert Icon, and with the in-form Oisin Murphy set to get the leg-up, SEA OF ROSES is a good play at 5/1.