A special Sunday Four to Follow as we take a look at 1000 Guineas Day. Last year Cachet ran them ragged, but this year we could see a return to the dominance of Ireland and Dubai. Here are four to watch out for on Sunday afternoon.
Everyone is looking forward to welcoming back Adayar to the track. It seems an age since he won the Derby, given that we have only seen him five times over two years. Charlie Appleby has said the aim for this horse is the Prince of Wales’s at Royal Ascot, and this could be a good starting point. Clear on ratings, the question is the ground. It turned to soft ground before the 2000 Guineas and there is a chance of a light shower today too. Watch out for bottomless ground.
One who can handle the soft and the heavy is Migration, who kicked off the flat season by winning the Lincoln in testing conditions. He’s usually a handicap horse, but has run in open company before. It might look a stern test on paper, but he’s the one with the proven stamina on testing ground. No problem with stepping up in trip, particularly on soft ground.
It’s another wide-open handicap over 1m 6F. It’s a tough call but I’ve gone for Berkshire Rocco. He’s ben starting to get the hang of things over on the all-weather, but 1m 6F over soft ground is ideal. And despite being third highest in the weights, he’s down to his lowest mark since the 2019 Zetland Stakes, racing as a two-year-old. It will be interesting to see how he fairs on his first return to the track in three-and-a-half-years
I also fancy the chances of Legendary Day. He seems to be on the drift, but cleverly avoids the five-pound penalty with jockey Jamie Powell taking 5lbs off. He reappeared winning over 2m on soft ground at Ripon and is versatile on any ground. He’s been turned out quickly, but just like Kitty’s Light last week it could pay out.
One to consider at a price is Torcello. A soft ground specialist and dour stayer. With age, he’s stepped down in trip to 1m 4F, but on soft ground he has licence to go further. He ran a strange race on reappearance this season, so hopefully we see the best of him today.
Astral Beau is the soft ground specialist of the field. She annihilated the field at Doncaster in a listed contest and her rating allows to make the big step up in grade. And despite being surrounded with horses who are more than capable than her, she loves the mud, and at double figure prices she’s the one to have.
I’m on the Tahyira train. She is a talented filly, and it showed when she won the Moyglare on soft ground. She may be inexperienced on form, but the talent she has from both sire and dam have merged into this one and there is no reason why Tahiyra cannot win. Meditate is good, but she has some ground to make up on the favourite.
I also feel that Mawj deserves a big chance here, but has the bookies quoting her at double-figure prices. She had a fantastic Winter in Dubai, stepping up to the mile trip without hesitation and taking to it brilliantly. Mawj is also a half-sister to Modern Games and Modern News, who both gained blac-type over the mile trip. You could say, she’s bred for a race like this.
The first big classic of the season is upon us. The 2000 Guineas always gives a good race, and some great winners. Whilst we celebrate the new King in London, there could be a royal winner at HQ. Here are four horses to follow on 2000 Guineas Day.
Given that the field is around 7/1, this is a wide-open contest for the first of the big sprints of the season. It’s worth looking down the market for one at a good price and Celsius has grabbed my attention. A great record from long layoffs, including 4 wins and a second, he has the talented amateur jockey Harry Davies on board, claiming 3lbs which brings Celsius’ mark down to a winning one. He’s had one run over the Rowley Mile, finishing second, and the firm ground is a big plus.
Paul and OIiver Cole may have a fantastic Saturday at Newmarket and have Leap Abroad running in this one. His record fresh isn’t bad, and the firm ground will also play a key role in how this horse runs. It’s also his time of the season to be backing him as he only ran three times last year between April and June.
Last season he scooped the big prize of winning the Cambridgeshire of C&D, but he performed well in difficult conditions to finish fourth in the Lincoln on reappearance this season. He stays at the same mark, with George Bass taking 3lbs off him, and in better conditions it’s hard not to see this horse finishing in the frame again.
Turntable is my next best in the race. It’s his first run for Harry Eustace, and on his record he should fare well. His record fresh has improved throughout his career, winning first time out last year. His record on the Rowley Mile is phenomenal with three wins and a second under his belt over C&D. Kayia Fraser knows this horse well and is bidding to make it a hattrick.
One with an outside chance is Magical Morning, formerly with the Gosden’s. He joins Amy Murphy and has wintered over in Dubai, before being narrowly defeated at Saint-Cloud. His mark has now fallen below 100, which gives him room to perform and in a field of 17 suits him well, rather than fields larger than 20.
I can’t look past the favourite for this one. A great record fresh, and a class jockey booking in Ryan Moore. He finished fifth in last year’s contest, but hasn’t been seen since narrowly losing out to Nature Strip since Royal Ascot. I feel that that’s the target for the Henry Candy sprinter this season, and can get off to a good start here.
When I watched the Dewhurst Stakes last year, I immediately said that Royal Scotsman would win the 2000 Guineas. It was an eye-catching run, from a horse who was fiercely campaigned at two. He’s by Kingman, but will get the speed from his dam’s side. Surprisingly, horses that head straight for the Guineas have a great record in recent years, and Royal Scotsman has, rightly, had no prep run. He should turn the form around against Chaldean (who ran on well despite jockey-less in the Greenham). He’s been my ante-post pick since last October and I still don’t have any doubts about him.
Two horses that could run a big race at a big price are Craven Stakes winner Indestructible and Godolphin’s Noble Style. Indestructible has baffled Kevin Stott, in terms of how big he is in the betting. A Craven winner who; more than handled the track, has one of the most in form combinations in racing and can perform on the going is 28/1 with Boylesports. Surely the punters will back him in by this afternoon.
Noble Style has only had three runs, and no prep run. But I’d much prefer him to his compatriot Silver Knott. He is by Kingman, a proven miler, and out of Eartha Kitt, who wasn’t a bad sprinter. And Noble Style’s damsire produced Addeybb, so breeding isn’t problem for me. The form from the Gimcrack Stakes is incredible, with winners left, right and centre. Noble Style is worth a good poke at 16/1 general price.
The very best of luck!
Tune in tomorrow for another Four To Follow for the 1000 Guineas.
It’s the final jumps fixture of the season, and what a day it could turn out to be. Kitty’s Light reappears in the bet365 Gold Cup, Hewick aims to end his season on a high and Jonbon makes an appearance too. Here are four to look out for on a smashing Sandown card.
Killaloan has rather fallen under the radar for the Paul Nicholls brigade, but looks like a progressive young horse. Winning his last three, impressing last time out winning off top weight. It’s a big step up in grade, but the way Killaloan is going, he should be able to handle it. Plus, winning ground on soft is a big plus today.
Holetown Hero also have to be given a shout for the Nicholls team. Second to Inneston last time out, he’s finished in the top four in all starts this season. He should perform on the ground after his performance at Newton Abbot, only losing by a length.
Kansas Du Berlais is also worth a shout, after progressing through his last two runs. He turns out quickly after winning at Fontwell last week by 16 lengths. A good win on heavy ground shows this Gary Moore horse is versatile and should handle the track well.
No prices are out yet on the without market, but Captain Guinness has to finish either behind, or in front, of Jonbon. It’s the first time Jonbon is stepping into open company, but this is the time to do it. He obliterated the field at Aintree and this is going to be a tougher test against seasoned chasers. Captain Guinness has improved no end this season. Second behind Energumene in the Champion Chase and second at the Dublin Racing Festival. Soft ground won’t be a problem and may just get the better of Greaneteen into second.
I’ve seen the light. Kitty’s Light is one of the best handicap horses, possibly, of the season. Winning the Eider and the Scottish National aren’t easy feats, and a slight drop in distance will not trouble him. And if Christian Williams is happy turning him out in the space of a week, then he must be trusted. He also races off the same mark of 140, five pounds lower than last year (he finished third), and a pound bigger than the 2021 run (he finished a narrow second). Escaping the penalty is a massive plus.
Nicholls has been rather bullish about Enrilo. He says that he’s back to his best, after four poor performances, but he’s had a layoff and he could come back with a bang. He was rated 145 last year, and pulled up, but was first past the post in 2021 off 143. This time he’s way down to 137, and if Nicholls is to be trusted, he may go and beat Kitty’s Light.
Solo, in terms of the prices, is the pick of the race. Hewick is far too short and looks at tad too unreliable after falling at Cheltenham. He had a great win at Sandown last year in the bet365 Gold Cup, but with the unseat at Listowel and the fall at Cheltenham. He’s just a tad to unreialbe to be as short as he is. Solo has had a great season after winning at Kempton last time out, but he started his campaign at the Esher track, on similar conditions. Nicholls always aims and places his horses well, and loves this meeting, which draws me in to back him at a more respectable price than Hewick’s.
After a successful Saturday, and a profitable Aintree, the action turns to Ayr for the third National in less than two weeks. All eyes are on the Scottish National, and I’ve four horses on the card to watch for.
Always a good little contest and I’m looking for the value in the race. Frere D’Armes looks to be a deserved favourite, improving all the time in the season, but the price he has is far too short to side with him. Instead I’m going with Return Ticket at 7/1, who won the contest last year. He was off a mark of 137 last year and is a pound lower this time around. Conditions will suit and can provide some stiff competition to the short-priced favourite.
A competitive contest, made more competitive thanks to it being a limited handicap. Colonel Mustard is the favourite, but he can be taken on due the handicap nature of the race. Soaring Glory doesn’t look fantastic on recent form, but his last winning mark was 143. He had a good run in the 2022 Betfair Hurdle, and has raced only twice since. The mark should pay dividends and conditions won’t be a problem. Milkwood, who won the 2021 edition, is 4lbs lower than her win in this race and presents the each-way value.
Balco Coastal has been there or thereabouts this season, but the form from the Scilly Isles has, just about, worked out. The Grade One hopes haven’t worked out, so this seems to be more to his level Three pounds better than the next best at 150, he’s the one to beat. Telmesomethinggirl, for me, is overpriced with her weight allowance. She’s used to racing against other mares, but may just sneak into the placings ahead of Thunder Rock.
3:35 – SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – Your Own Story @ 7/1 (General)
Monbeg Genius and Kitty’s Light have been fancied for this race for a long time, but I think they can be opposed. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox won the Grand National last week, and I fancy them to do the double with Your Own Story. Marathon runners are the ones to side with, and Your Own Story loves a big trip. Won a marathon race at Wetherby, and nearly won one at Haydock last time out. The handicapper has been kind raising him 4lbs, and makes him very light in the weights. He’s the one for me at 7/1.
Manothepeople for Fergal O’Brien, who’s had a stellar season, is also one who’s been hammered in. Was around 25/1 in the week, has halved in price to 12/1 generally. He’s had a great novice season, and looks to be a marathon runner for the future. I’ve seen his two wins at Chepstow in person, and he was very eye-catching. The weight makes him appealing to back, and there’s 14/1 prices available, with BetUK.
Half Shot could do something at a massive price. The race that catches the eye was his run at Kelso last month, finishing a head behind Bill Baxter. Bill Baxter franked the form at Aintree, the third has finished second and won on its next two starts. Fourth finished second next time out, and the fifth won on her next start. And Half Shot finished second in his next race, but was 8-and-a-half-lengths clear of the rest. His mark may have inflated, but he could deliver some good prize money for a yard who have had a terrible time of late. 50/1, with Betfred, is worth a small each-way tickle.
This weekend sees us go from Aintree to Ayr as we turn our attention to a Scottish rendition of the Grand National, a race brilliantly won last year by Christian Williams’ Win My Wings.
After the high-drama issues and performances both on and off the track over the weekend at horse racing’s biggest singular day, the Scottish Grand National homes into view to draw our attention away from the regular debates occurring between us and those of an opposing view.
With that being said, I have three horses at 6/1, 14/1, and 14/1 to highlight for BestofBets.com that are set to run in Scotland on Saturday.
My first fancy for the weekend comes in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase and I’ll be taking a swing at Dan Skelton’s SAIL AWAY at 6/1 to continue his progression.
Having finished second when giving six pounds away to the future two-time Ultima winner and Grand National successor, Corach Rambler, in October 2021, this gallant grey looks like he’ll relish a good three miles at a course that promotes precise jumping, something Sail Away has locked down.
When receiving his correct conditions of better ground and three miles, the Martaline gelding has finished second to Dusart in a novice chase at Leicester, third in a competitive handicap chase at Aintree, and easily won a three-runner Warwick contest.
His second to Jetoile last time out reads well considering it was over the wrong distance on slow ground and that run last month should have him 100% for Ayr on Saturday.
At 6/1, taking into account the horses he has run into and the performances he has consistently been putting in for nearly two years, Sail Away looks like a solid proposition in the second race of the day.
I’m going to the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2:25 for the second ante-post fancy of the weekend and it looks to be a very competitive field thanks to Colonel Mustard, Nemean Lion, and Iceo.
Before I give my fancy, I think ANNA BUNINA at 8/1 has got a good chance. She has constantly been improving from her win in this race last year and back on better ground, her form with Gaelic Warrior and Queens Brook reads well off a mark of 142.
However, it’s the 2021 champion MILKWOOD who gets the nod from me at 14/1.
He pulled up on his last start in the County Hurdle on ground that wouldn’t have been too favourable and with the surface set to be quick enough on Saturday, he should get his correct conditions.
Neil Mulholland’s nine-year-old won this race two years ago off a four-pound higher mark and was a not-too-distant fifth in the 2022 renewal of the contest off a 12-pound higher mark.
He has been performing well this season and looked to be going well in the competitive Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May before falling two-out, so at a course he seems to thrive off, on ground that will be suitable, and with a workable handicap mark, 14/1 seems a reasonable price for this former winner.
And finally, following his victory over Coral Gold Cup victor Le Milos last time out, EMPIRE STEEL is the horse for me in the feature race of the weekend, the Scottish Grand National, at 14/1.
I always thought this horse was waiting to land a big handicap event so to see him win a Listed race when beating the Dan Skelton runner at Kelso when seven pounds wrong at the weights was surprising, however, the handicapper has potentially let him off with one by only raising him four pounds for the effort.
Empire strikes back! 🏇
Le Milos traded at 1.01 in the @bet365 Premier Chase @KelsoRacecourse but his backers were floored by the fast-finishing Empire Steel who flew home late to complete a double on the afternoon for @LambdenRacing and @mania450!
This gallant grey was second to the useful Potterman in March 2022 off a one-pound higher mark in a race that was run over 3m2f on good ground; he kept on at the finish that day which shows promise that he could handle a marathon trip on decent ground.
Furthermore, not too long ago, this nine-year-old beat Protektorat in a novice chase at Kelso in the same year that he fell at the fourth-last in the 2021 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby when clearly going the best.
Empire Steel is in the best form of his life and off a mark of 145, he is capable of producing a career-best effort when he needs it the most.
All this week has been building up for this moment. 40 horses, 30 fences, 10 minutes. The wildest, most exhilarating, most watched race in the world is back. The Grand National. Everyone will have their own picks, from the colour of the silks, to one with a good name, it’s a lottery. Here are my five picks for the national, that I think will come home the strongest.
I have had my eye on this horse for a while now. The more I read into him, the more I think he’s got a shot of finishing in, at least, the top five. His run in the Grand National trial wasn’t great, but it seemed he needed it softer. Bottomless ground is his forte, and the ground should be soft on Saturday for him. That soft ground form, and the big distance he’ll run says he will stay for the whole trip. Noel Meade, the trainer, hasn’t also said that the track at Aintree will suit better than Punchestown. He has national experience, winning the Leinster National in 2022 off a mark of 137. He’s off 149, but his weight is under 11st, which is always a good sign for a debutant in the National.
He’s been antepost for such a long-time, and only was backed out of favouritism on Friday morning. But that doesn’t take away how good this horse is. Two Ultima chases, which was where the winner came from last year, and his relentless staying power makes him a fan favourite. Derek Fox will have to ride him to a career best to win the race, as usually he’s held up from the back, and sometimes you’d like to be a bit closer to the front in the National. Too far out the back can often leave you outpaced. But Corach Rambler knows his race tactics, and could deliver a performance similar to his 2022 Ultima win. Out the back at halfway, and stays on late in the day to win. The whole of Scotland will cheer on Corach Rambler in Liverpool on Saturday.
His mark might not look interesting, but then you look at his weight and suddenly it makes for a bit more appeal. 1lb lower mark than last year, but 5lbs lower in the weights than last year, may make up for his ninth placed finish. He got round the course fine, but cracked at the second last and wandered over the line. The relaxing in the weights makes a bit more appeal, and after his debut he’ll know his way round that bit better. Gordon Elliott was tight-lipped, but said he goes better over longer trips. He’s right, in a way. He finished second as a novice in the 3m 6F National Hunt Cup and likes testing ground, showing that he is an outright stayer. His weight makes appeal for him to cross the line, and finish the race better than he did last year, for me.
If you know nothing about the National, or any of the 40 horses, then this horse might make appeal. He finished second in the Welsh National this year, which is always a good sign. A horse that has competed in Nationals, or longer trips, always perform well in the National. He pulled up last toe, but that could be due the big weight he was given to carry that day. In the national he’s carrying a stone less than he did at Cheltenham, and remains at the same mark of 151. A big distance and a player on soft ground, Joe Tizzard can go one better than his father and win the Grand National.
Last year, Sam Wahley-Cohen announced he was leaving the saddle 24 hours before he was due to ride Noble Yeats. 24 hours later he won the Grand National on Noble Yeats. And history could repeat itself. Davy Russell announced a shock retirement on a mundane Sunday at Thurles. Jack Kennedy then broke his leg at Naas, prompting the two-time Grand National winner to come out of retirement until the end of the season. In what should be his last Grand National ride, he rides Galvin. He put in a sterling effort to finish behind Delta Work in the Cross-Country at Cheltenham, which has been a go to race for winners of this race. He seems to have the make-up of a National horse, but given that it his debut he doesn’t have a better jockey on board to win with than Davy Russell.
Whoever you are on this Grand National the very best of luck!
Why not check out my selections for the other races on Day Three! Click the link here
All prices are with William Hill – Official Betting Partner of the Grand National.
Day Two was an each-way and places affair, but Inthepocket provided some good win money for Best of Bet’s viewers. Now it’s the big day. Grand National Day. Where the whole nation will have a flutter on 40 horses, jumping 30 fences in 10 minutes.
Just to note, I’ve written a special preview of my Grand National picks, which you can find by clicking on the link here.
This race looks as competitive as the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Which inclines me to go with Dashel Drasher. A fantastic run for second, he hasn’t finished outside the top two since November 2021, only being pulled up once. The ground won’t be a problem, and he is the fourth highest-rated horse. He has plenty of form in the book to overturn his anguish at Cheltenham last time out. His Aintree record is a first and second, and can add another one or two to his record on Saturday.
Monmiral hasn’t been the best over fences, and this feel like the right decision from Paul Nicholls. But don’t forget who he’s come up behind. Jonbon on his debut, The Real Whacker on New Year’s Day and Gerri Colombe in the Scilly Isles’. If you want to look for Grade One form, you’ve found it with Monmrial. And don’t forget, he is a Grade One winner over hurdles, at Aintree. This is over much further and in better company. But he hasn’t come to this race for nothing. Plus, Harry Cobden has had a brilliant week in the big races.
Handicap Best: West Balboa – Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle – 7/1
West Balboa missed Cheltenham, which was a surprise for some. She comes here after narrowly winning the Lanzarote at Kempton. She goes well on soft ground, and the step up in trip won’t bother her. The Skelton’s have been unlucky this week, and whilst they’ll want Le Milos to win the big one at 5:15, she should provide a nice appetiser in the second race.
Another I like is Erne River. He disappointed at Haydock, but has had a layoff and should get his ground. He’s quite high in the handicap, and has never won off a mark higher than 136. That being said, he’s always been placed. A nice couple of seconds to his name off a higher mark, makes for a good each-way appeal.
Glimpse of Gala is way down the prices after blowing out at the Cheltenham Festival, but Bradley Roberts is back on her and claiming 7lbs. Her last appearance at Aintree resulted in a narrow second off a mark of 123, with Roberts claiming eight. Roberts’ claim, off a mark of 136, puts her down to 129, which she can more than manage. Ground is also perfect for her.
All prices are William Hill – Official Betting Partner of the Grand National
Selections:
13:45 – Calico (W/O Jonbon)
14:25 – WEST BALBOA (Erne River & Glimpse of Gala e/w)
15:00 – Hermes Allen (Irish Point e/w)
15:35 – DASHEL DRASHER (NAP) (MONMIRAL E/W)
16:15 – Shakem Up’Arry (Kinondo Kwetu & Castle Robin e/w)
Day One was one of the best days of tipping. Two favourites kicked us off, an unlucky second in the third. Two blanks and then a big win in the handicap! Let’s continue that trend as we head onto Ladies’ Day at Aintree. Here’s the day two preview for Best of Bets
Fakir D’oudaires will be back to his best on Friday, I’m certain. His Ascot Chase defence wasn’t great, and Joseph O’Brien has opted for the first time cheekpieces. With Shishkin back to his best yesterday, the form is franked. Pic D’Orhy is an interesting second fav, but pulled up at Aintree last year which isn’t a great sign. With Joseph O’Brien on the card, and a sterling week for one JP McManus, Fakir holds all the aces for Friday’s feature.
A Grade Two winner, in good style, who has been purposefully aimed at this race since his Kempton win. Yes the form hasn’t worked out with Mullenbeg. But his rating is in the top 10 of the race. Four of the top 10 rated horses missed Cheltenham, including Rubaud. Good ground may be his preference, but the rain scheduled shouldn’t be a deluge and may work out for the Paul Nicholls second-string.
Two runs over the big fences puts him at a massive advantage. Finishing close seconds each time puts him at an even bigger advantage. Despite his last run, his rating of 140 is perfect. He’s been treated well in the weights and puts him in a great position to turn the tide.
National fence experience is key, and only few have competed over them. One of them is Al Dancer, who nosed off Gesskille in the Grand Sefton. He’s been kept fresh for the race, which is always a good sign. His rating is quite high at 149, but he’s won off higher at 151. Double figure price is worth a decent each-way bet.
A lot further down the prices is Fantastic Lady. She unseated in last year’s race off , 137 and goes off 4lbs higher this term, which isn’t too bad. Kept fresh since New Year’s Day at Cheltenham, she should have a better crack at it this time.
All prices are William Hill – Official Betting Partner of the Grand National
Selections:
13:45 – Bronn
14:20 – Dargiannini (Sonigino e/w)
14:55 – Inthepocket (RUBAUD E/W)
15:30 – FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (NAP)
16:05 – GESSKILLE (Al Dancer & Fantastic Lady e/w)
After a long-ish layoff after sitting in the Caribbean sun, I’m back on Best of Bets with my selections for Day One of the Aintree Grand National Festival. Let’s hope for some winners, and some better luck than Cheltenham offered.
My Cheltenham Festival nap is finally back! After missing the Turners’ due to the ground, connections think that he’ll suit the better ground here. Despite the fact the forecast has given rain out for two of the three days in Liverpool. However, the form from the Irish Arkle has been backed up by El Fabiolo, and horses that missed Cheltenham seem to gain an advantage over horses that went. Stage Star, and Saint Roi fall victim, so it seems Banbridge has been primed for this race.
At one point Milton Harris thought this horse would batter the Irish in the Triumph. He would have had a job on to get into the first 10! His last run at Kempton wasn’t pretty, but I think the run can be excused. He was raced differently, being covered up on the inside instead of being produced late on. He also scoped badly after the race too which also makes more sense for his poor showing at Kempton. Harris knows how to win this race, by any means, with Knight Salute last year. Scriptwriter is a similar type, and Harry Cobden is an eye-catching jockey booking.
Handicap Best: Dancing On My Own – Red Rum Handicap Chase – 8/1
This could be the worst piece of handicapping seen on a Irish horse at this Festival. In saying that, ground was the excuses for those two runs, so should get it a bit more to his liking today. The de Bromhead stable hasn’t been flying since Cheltenham. One win from their last 30 runs isn’t good, but with everything looking bleak for this horse, things may turn out good. Each-way fancies in the race are Mackenberg, for Donald McCain. Northern trainers at Northern festivals are a massive plus and Mackenberg has fallen steadily down the handicap to find his last winning mark of 140. The other is the rank outsider Vado Forte. Another that missed Cheltenham, and despite not winning since the Galway festival, he could find one of the extra places to run a big race.
Well, Cheltenham has been and gone like the revolving circus that it is and the national hunt season is slowly, but surely, dwindling away as we head into the height of the summer.
Royal Ascot and the Epsom Derby seem like they are arriving quicker than anyone would like, however, we still have Aintree’s Grand National extravaganza to look forward to.
With the meeting becoming its own mini ‘Festival’ now, here are the horses from the three-day event that Ash Symonds of BestofBets.com will be looking to keep on the side of.
We are starting with my captain of the meeting, the horse that will be leading the troops into battle, and the competitor that if it wins, I’ll be talking about for many years to come.
That’s right, I will be on the side of Patrick Griffin’s ROI MAGE for the blue-ribboned event, the Grand National.
Now, I wouldn’t blame you for not knowing this horse very well, however, there is a strong case to be made.
Before this 11-year-old moved to Griffin in 2022, he ran some very good races over the water in some of the top races in France for his previous trainer, a stint that included a good fourth in the 2021 Grade 2 Grand Steeple-Chase de Compiegne when giving weight away and a facile win in the Listed Prix The Stomp Chase at Compiegne.
Since moving over to Ireland, he beat Augusta Gold and Samcro at Down Royal in March 2022 when wrong at the weights, finished a good third in the 2022 Grand Steeple-Chase-Cross-Country de Compiegne, was running a good race at Cheltenham Trials Day before falling at the 20th, and he gave five pounds away to Longhouse Poet and Burrows Saint at Down Royal when finishing a close second.
The form looks very favourable in my eyes and will carry 10-8, his lowest racing weight for five years.
All things considered, 50/1 is massive and connections are quite sweet on his chances, as shared by assistant trainer James Griffin in the recent Only Fools Love Horses video sponsored by us at BestofBets.com (23:30-36:00).
I’m interested in CHAMP for the Liverpool Hurdle due to the power of deduction.
Time and time again, we see horses who have had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival underperform at Aintree – looking at just last year, L’Homme Presse, Thyme Hill, Protektorat, and even Champ all ran well below their best having performed at a good level the month before.
Looking at the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle, Teahupoo, Flooring Porter, Sire Du Berlais, Dashel Drasher, and Home By The Lee all ran in the Stayers Hurdle whilst Marie’s Rock ran in the Mares’ Hurdle and Thyme Hill ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.
All of these horses could show up at Aintree for the three-mile Grade 1 hurdle having run at Cheltenham which leaves just Champ who hasn’t run since his third to Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle on Boxing Day.
"National Hunt racing at its very best" 🐎🏆@RichardHoiles
The Nicky Henderson-trained gelding has an impeccable record when fresh, a stat that reads 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 when running after a 70+ day layoff.
With that in mind, this relatively lightly-raced 11-year-old could outrun his odds of 7/1 if he is on song again, however, I would be fearful of Teahupoo from the market rivals as he is probably the best horse in the race and if he turns out well from Cheltenham, a Stayers’ Hurdle that was run in attritional conditions, he could be the one to upset Champ’s party and if you are happy to back both in the same race, I wouldn’t put you off that.
This year’s Aintree Bowl over three miles could be one of the hottest renewals of the contest for the last few years as Shishkin, Ahoy Senor, Bravemansgame, Conflated, and A Plus Tard are all prominent in the betting market at the time of writing.
The former would be stepping up to this distance for the first time in his career and all of the others ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, with Bravemansgame finishing a good second to Galopin Des Champs.
All will go to the race with live chances, but I’d be keen to give Conflated a chance at 9/2.
Taking in the conditions of the race, I’d say Gordon Elliott’s runner is the second-best horse of the group and is still improving, as shown by his good third in the blue-ribboned event at the Festival when finding a bit of trouble in running under Sam Ewing, a jockey who only knew he was going to be riding him 20 minutes before the race after Davy Russell stood himself down for the day.
The one query I’d have about his run last time out is I wasn’t sure how well he saw out the 3m2f of the Cheltenham test, but back to three miles on a flat track in a race he was second in last year (he should have won if he was more prominent), I think all things lead to him running a good race.
The only horse that might just have the edge over him is Bravemansgame and it seems like connections are lining up this contest for their King George winner, however, I’d have a small query about how hard a race he had in the Gold Cup and whether he can bounce back to that form again.
Conflated should be fine reappearing at Aintree so soon after Cheltenham as he did the same last year when falling in the Ryanair at the penultimate fence before finishing second in this race.
To finish off my Grade 1 fancies, I’ll be taking a swing at Letsbeclearaboutit for Gavin Cromwell in the Mersey on Saturday.
He is trying 2m4f for the very first time having won a bumper nicely as a six-year-old over two miles as well as a good second to American Mike over 2m6f in 2022.
Since then, he has ran into the top staying novices in the hurdling division this season over three miles and he ran a great race in the Albert Bartlett for all he maybe didn’t truly see out the trip.
Hugely impressive! @donoghue_keith won't ride many easier winners than this – the classy Letsbeclearaboutit makes the most of a good opportunity and bolts up at @punchestownrace 👏
He has shown plenty of gears from his bumper victory and throughout all his races this season and even in his 22-length victory two starts ago, there is obviously a good power unit there.
At this new trip that I think could bring out improvement, I’ll be siding with him alongside DARK RAVEN at 13/1 for Willie Mullins who has been crying out for a step up in trip and he ran a belting race in the Supreme for 80% of the race before being caught for a bit of speed at the finish.
There are also a few in handicaps that are grabbing my interest.
In the Topham Handicap Chase over the national fences, I’ll be chancing PHOENIX WAY at 16/1 for JP McManus.
He’s down to a low mark of 138 having finished second to Annsam in December 2021, a horse who has now improved 15lbs since, before an easy win at Ascot in January 2022 off 140.
Back to a middle-distance trip of the Topham and off this low mark, he should be very competitive at 16/1.
And finally, and stick with me on this one, I think that JASON THE MILITANT could be ready to step back to his former glory in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 2:20 on Friday.
Having been a Grade 1 horse at one point in his career, he moved from Henry de Bromhead to Philip Kirby at the start of the year and has now dropped down to a mark of 146.
Joe Williamson is set to claim five pounds off his back and if the ground turns up soft, something that could happen with the incoming rain on Thursday, this horse off an effective mark of 141, having run a super race on Trials Day off an eight-pound higher mark over the wrong distance, is big enough at 66/1 for me to take a swing.
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