Category: Horse Racing

As 2024 ends, the year’s final column previews the first raceday of 2025; Cheltenham New Year’s Day.

As many of you will know, despite this being a free column for people to read, I keep a P/L for two reasons.

Firstly, it gives me a point of reference. In my spreadsheet, I can see we had a bad March and April, but June and October were months to remember.

I can also see that despite picking up 16.2pts of profit on Boxing Day, and despite finishing December in profit by 17.35pts, I managed to give back 6.8pts across the 27^th and 28^th of December.

Secondly, and very similarly to my first point, it gives you a point of reference.

I know P/Ls are usually saved for paid services, but you take up your time to hear what a guesser like me has to say, so it’s only fair that I keep a record of results.

Now, as we turn into 2025, we sit on a total profit of 59.8pts (March-December) at an ROI of 10.3%. I hope those numbers are nice for you all to see.

Going forward, I don’t know whether to reset the P/L or continue, so if any of you could let me know in the comments of my Twitter post or in my DMs, I would be greatly appreciative.

Happy New Year everyone, and let’s dive in.

1:30 Cheltenham – Bowtogreatness @ 15/2 with BetVictor (2 places) – 1pt EW

We’re starting 2025 with a horse who plagued me throughout 2024. That’s right, hello, Bowtogreatness.

I had no money on the day he won at Newbury off 129 two starts ago for two reasons. Firstly, I thought it was a quick turnaround (12 days) from his seasonal reappearance and secondly, I thought the good ground was against him.

He proved me wrong that day, but he ran like a drain on similarly good conditions at Newcastle in late November which makes me think he does have an affinity for softer ground.

Bowtogreatness holds off Destroytheevidence to bounce back to winning ways for @BenJone04644251 and @benpauling1! pic.twitter.com/mkNKkGNmq3

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) November 7, 2024

When looking through the form book, he won on heavy ground at Leicester, heavy ground at Ffos Las, and he finished a good third in the Coral Trophy off 132 on soft ground.

The form of that race looks fine as the second, Al Dancer, bolted up in the Badger Beer two starts later and the fifth, Sam Brown, won a veterans chase at Ascot before finishing third in the Charlie Hall Chase.

Off 132, I think he can win some nice races with this rating and I’m keen to see what he can do on a slower surface.

1:45 Musselburgh – Liari @ 13/8 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

Liari has taken a bit of money this season already, but I hope I can cash in on his return to Musselburgh.

He won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle last year around the course quite easily, and he also got the better of Knight Of Allen at Aintree who is now rated 123 having finished a good third in a valuable 2m3f Haydock handicap hurdle.

The track is set to be hit by rain on Wednesday morning as well, and that will help soften up the surface which is going to help his chance.

Ben Bromley is the pilot of choice with Harry Cobden on duty at Cheltenham, and with Bromley’s valuable 5lb claim, he runs here off an effective mark of 124.

I think that’s a really good mark for this horse, and I think Wednesday is the day he returns to the winners’ enclosure.

2:05 Cheltenham – Colonel Harry @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

I opposed Colonel Harry in the Coral Gold Cup due to ground reasons, but with imminent rain forecaste for Prestbury Park, I think he’s the answer to the feature 2m4f handicap chase.

If, and I hope my ‘calculations are correct’, we get soft ground by the time this race rolls around, I would have ground concerns for Springwell Bay, Gemirande, Midnight River, and Lisnamult Lad.

They can all go on the surface, but are they at their best? Unsure.

Colonel Harry, on the contrary, has won on soft and heavy to his name, and arguably his best piece of form comes when beating Trelawne in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase on soft ground last season.

Trelawne has a rating of 152 now and the 20-length third, The King Of Ryhope, finished a close fourth in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase subsequently.

The handicapper kindly dropped him 2lbs for a poor Coral Gold Cup effort to a mark of 146, and on what is his second start in handicap company over fences, I’ll keep him in the book.

The Challow Novices Hurdle looks like one of the most interesting British races of the Christmas period, and the supporting card at Newbury is nice as well.

Although Boxing Day went well, yesterday was a bit of a lull, so hopefully today’s form can continue.

Let’s dive in.

 

12:05 Newbury – Sunset Marquesa @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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I’d be surprised if Sunset Maquesa isn’t better than her current mark of 114, so I’m happy to back her on handicap debut.

Her bumper form with Diva Luna (Grade 2 winner), Listentoyourheart (Listed winner), Baby Kate (winner of hot Naas maiden hurdle), and Rula Bula (9.5 lengths maiden hurdle winner) is nice for a horse rated in the mid-110s.

Joe Tizzard highlighted her as a horse to follow at the start of this season, so it was disappointing to see her beaten comfortably at Uttoxeter at the start of November.

She put that behind her to win at Wincanton by 11 lengths in an easy race, but still, it was nice to see.

The ground will work for her and I’m happy to keep her on side today.

 

1:12 Newbury – Ballybreeze @ 7/1 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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It’s been a while, but Ballybreeze is back on my betting list after a decent amount of time away from the game.

I backed him at Cheltenham in November 2023 and my pain was short-lived as Robbie Dunne was sent out of the side door at the first fence. Ouch.

He ran off 120 that day and I was very keen on him, so today’s mark of 114 naturally makes him a bit more interesting.

He had a year off the track after that Cheltenham appearance before he ran over hurdles at Leicester last month.

Hopefully, that was a prep run to get some fitness and confidence on his side for today, and this 0-125 contest is a much easier task than that 0-150 Cheltenham handicap he contested last year.

Considering he bolted up of 110 on chase debut at Chepstow in October 2022, I think he’s well-handicapped with a four-pound higher mark and any ground should suffice.

 

1:45 Newbury – Go To War @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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All of last season, Fergal O’Brien kept talking up Go To War as a nice horse, and his final two wins of the campaign backed up his thinking.

He won at Ludlow in December and then defied a three-month lay-off to beat Court In The Act at the same track in March.

The runner-up from that race looked really smart when bolting up at Market Rasen this season, so the form has been franked, and the pair pulled miles clear of the third despite their respective 7lb penalties.

Although he was half-expected to win at Taunton on his second start of last season and he failed to do so, the second, Matterhorn, improved 17lbs over fences by winning four races subsequently, and even the winner from that race (Ballee) is rated 135 now.

Since switching to Nicky Henderson, he’s had a pipe-opener earlier this month and is now stepping up in trip.

He’s thoroughly unexposed and has some nice form in the book, so I’ll chance him here.

 

2:00 Leopardstown – Hewick @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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It’s an interesting call from connections to send Hewick to this race, but I think they’ve made a pretty solid call.

That King George was a hot race, and although he would have had his chance, the Savills Hurdle looks a bit easier for him to contest.

Based on yesterday’s times, the Leopardstown ground is riding on the good side, and we know that Hewick is a fan of this surface.

He also has decent hurdles form having finished second in the French Champion Hurdle to Lossange Bleu in May, so this step back over the smaller obstacles is fine.

As for his other form, finishing second to Envoi Allen in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase is good and his third in the Punchestown Gold Cup to Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs is also nice form.

With a few potentially needing the run, I’m happy to chance Hewick at the prices.

 

3:35 Newbury – Moon d’Orange @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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Having backed him at Cheltenham earlier this month, the return to 2m6f should suit Moon d’Orange.

He ran a really good race at Presbury Park two weeks ago as he jumped nicely from the front and travelled powerfully, however, the extended 3m1f was a touch too far.

If he matches that performance at Newbury today, he should go quite close, and Freddie Gordon is booked in the saddle to claim 5lbs.

With that claim and his rating of 128, he gets a nice 9lbs from Shanagh Bob, a horse who beat him by just four lengths on soft ground at Cheltenham last December.

That seems like a fair swing and John McConnel’s six-year-old is in good form.

Well, as Christmas presents go, yesterdays were nicely gift-wrapped ahead of Welsh Grand National Day.

The column found three winners at 9/2, 7/1, and 13/8 as well as place money on L’Homme Presse from the King George.

I’ll update the P/L another day – this is Christmas, after all – so let’s roll into today’s selections.

 

1:05 Chepstow – Le Milos @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Whisper it quietly, but Le Milos has been on my cliff horses list since I started backing him in the Bet365 Gold Cup.

He ran a good race at Sandown that day, and in his two runs since this season, he’s done the same thing.

My in-running comments on him for both his Cheltenham and Newbury efforts would include the phrases ‘travelled strongly’ and ‘weakened late-on’, but the first comment is why I’m giving him another chance.

I expected this at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance, but Newbury surprised me, as did his tactics.

He led, which is a tactic he didn’t employ in his Coral Gold Cup win or his Grand National run, so I’m hoping that he returns to his off-the-pace style instead.

He’s well-handicapped based on his Coral Gold Cup success off 146, that goes without saying, and I hope this race is a winnable one for him.

 

1:10 Leopardstown – Found A Fifty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Well, I’ve flown the Found A Fifty flag for a number of weeks regarding the Grade 1 Paddy’s Rewards Club Chase, and today we get to see how wrong I’ve been.

Well, I hope I’m right, and there’s a fair case to suggest why Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old can beat Gaelic Warrior.

Firstly, I think Gaelic Warrior is a machine. I backed him in the Arkle, and he would have been my King George fancy if he went. However, around a left-handed track over 2m1f, I’m happy to take him on.

Found A Fifty, on the other hand, runs well around Leopardstown and he’s shown good form already this season, notably when giving 14lbs away to Pinkerton on seasonal reappearance.

He was only just beaten by Il Etait Temps at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this year, form that looks strong, and he won the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase before that.

I hope he can catch Gaelic Warrior today and win this contest.

 

2:10 Chepstow – Madaket @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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Seeing the purple and gold silks of the Louisville Syndicate gives me flashbacks to Zanza, which is not a thought I want to have too often.

I don’t think I’ve backed any other horse in these silks bar the aforementioned Denman Chase winner, so Madaket is making a bit of history today.

He’s still fairly unexposed with 10 runs under the belt and he won on handicap debut in October 2023 having bombed out in all three of his maiden/novice hurdle starts, which is always a promising sign.

That win came off 102, and the form of the race is looking tasty.

Immortal Flame, the second, has improved 12lbs since, Gaye Legacy, the third, has improved 13lbs since, and The Scorpion King, the fourth, has won three times since.

Admittedly, he won off 102 that day and he now has a rating of 120, but he showed promise at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance.

The soft ground at Chepstow will suit him and I think he can run well.

 

2:50 Chepstow – Iwilldoit @ 14/1 with Coral (5 places) – 1pt EW

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The Welsh Grand National is a tough race to find the winner usually, well I’ve never found the winner.

I’m taking a small chance, but I think Iwilldoit can replicate his 2021 success.

He goes well fresh as he won the 2021 Welsh Grand National Trial off a 226-day break and the 2023 Classic Chase off a 383-day break, so today’s 314-day break is not a worry.

His win in the Welsh National came off 140 and his Classic Chase success came off 147, so today’s rating of 147 alongside Callum Pritchard’s seven-pound claim gives him a good chance at the weights of winning here.

Conditions are in his favour and he’s a well-handicapped stayer. That’s enough filled criteria for me to back him.

 

3:00 Leopardstown – Desertmore House @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

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Finally, I’m having a stab at the Paddy Power Chase with Desertmore House, the 2023 Kerry National winner.

He won that off 135 when beating a good field by a decent margin, a field that included Salvador Ziggy, Authorized Art, The Goffer, Chemical Energy, Stumptown, Ain’t That A Shame, Life In The Park, Hurricane Georgie, and Foxy Jacks.

Since then, he’s not shown his best form, but there’s been glimmers of hope this season so far.

He finished a decent fourth in the Grade 3 BetVictor Chase two months ago behind French Dynamite, Minella Indo, and Hewick (a runner-up in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase on his next start).

Martin Brassil gave him a run over hurdles last month to prep him for this race without affecting his handicap mark, and that run was a fine one to finish third of 15.

This has hopefully been a plan and I hope he runs well.

Yes, King George Day is upon us. Boxing Day is a special 24 hours for horse racing fans with more action on our TVs than empty chocolate wrappers.

It’s a big day, and like most horse racing fans, I’m hoping to not give any away to the bookies. There are lots of races to digest, and that could cause danger.

Anyway, best of luck, and let’s begin.

 

11:55 Aintree – Lavida Adiva @ 9/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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Starting with the very first race at Aintree and just the fourth contest of the whole day, I’m sweet on the chances of Lavida Adiva.

The ground at Aintree is interesting as it’s good to soft currently but the surface should dry a little bit ahead of flag fall.

Either way, this five-year-old by Champs Elysees is ground versatile and she has some nice form in the book.

On her final start of last season, she chased home Pretending in a mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham, form that looks solid as the winner won at Uttoxeter subsequently.

She qualified for that series final by finishing third at Market Rasen in the qualifier, and this race at Aintree is another qualifier, so if connections want to head back to the final in April, a good run here will secure that.

As for her novice form, she finished third to One More Strike and Yes Day at Catterick in January, the latter of which finished third in a Pertemps Qualifier to Cuthbert Dibble and Lord Snootie.

On her second hurdles start, she chased home The Kalooki Kid (rated 131 over fences) at Musselburgh and also finished ahead of the subsequent Listed hurdle runner-up Ottizzini.

With a generous rating of 113, I think Lavida Adiva can run a big race back against her own gender after two runs in hot handicaps against the boys.

 

12:45 Kempton – Leader In The Park @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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With a race under his belt, Leader In The Park can get back in the winners’ enclosure in Kempton’s opener.

I backed him at the Cheltenham in November on his seasonal reappearance and it looked pretty clear-cut to me – he needed the run.

He travelled nicely for 80% of the race, but in a race on good ground, he was just caught for speed around the home bend.

Still, the case for him remains. We had Ben Pauling on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast a few months ago, and he said that this six-year-old point-to-point winner was his best novice hurdler last year without showing his true potential.

That’s a bold statement considering they had Tellherthename, a Supreme runner, Personal Ambition, and Handstands in their novice hurdle squad last season, but it’s one worth noting down.

On hurdles debut, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Farnoge and ahead of Excello who beat Solo over fences on his next start to frank the form.

Off 120 today, I think he’s fairly unexposed and he can run a big race.

 

1:05 Aintree – Potters Charm @ 13/8 with Coral – 2pt Win

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Followers of the column, Twitter, or TikTok will know my love for Potters Charm, and Boxing Day is his chance to claim his first Grade 1.

I have questions about the form of Country Mile’s win at Cheltenham earlier this month as the race rather fell into his grasp and similar doubts are placed on the heads of the bigger-priced runners.

Therefore, Potters Charm looks like the most solid option in the Formby.

Despite Valgrand’s slick jumping at Cheltenham last month, the five-year-old by Valirann kept on his hindquarters and picked him off around the bend with relative ease.

As for Potters Charm’s win in October, the second, Minella Sixo, won a novice hurdle at Thurles before finishing second in a Grade 3 Cork novice hurdle earlier this month.

He’s classy and I really think his opponents must improve to beat him, so I’m keeping him on side.

 

1:40 Aintree – Florida Dreams @ 5/2 with Coral – 1pt Win

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I backed Florida Dreams in the Greatwood Hurdle and he returned EW profit with some firms at 20/1, and the handicapper has nicely dropped him 1lb for the effort as well.

He travelled notably well down the hill before staying on well up the hill to edge out Fiercely Proud for fifth.

Speaking of Fiercely Proud, he boosted the Greatwood form by winning the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle last weekend.

The way he raced at Cheltenham last time out suggests this step up in trip could work nicely, and I’m fairly sure he’s a better horse than his rating of 126 suggests.

Yes, he’s slightly disappointed connections since his Grade 2 bumper win at Aintree in 2023, but the Blizzard Of Oz and Masaccio form is looking nice and finishing eighth in a hot renewal of the Scottish Champion Hurdle in April is also good form.

I’ll chance him here.

 

2:30 Kempton – Spillane’s Tower @ 10/3 with William Hill (1pt Win) & L’Homme Presse @ 11/1 with William Hill (0/5pt EW, 3 places)

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The King George is a competitive race this year which is great as, at one stage, it wasn’t looking too promising.

There are stronger bets across Boxing Day, though I’m still keeping Spillane’s Tower and L’Homme Presse on the team.

The former is a rightful favourite based on most of his form, and beating Monty’s Star on yielding ground at Punchestown is very relevant in the context of a good ground King George.

His runners-up effort in the John Durkan is also very good as finishing around the likes of Fact To File, Galopin Des Champs, and Fastorslow is some of the best form in the race.

He should go very close.

As for L’Homme Presse, I’m not sure how effective he is on a decent surface, but it’s hard to knock his attitude.

He’s a very honest horse and Venetia Williams’ horses have run well all season on their first starts of the campaign.

He has four good to soft victories to his name, so hopefully conditions will suit and I think he has a big run in him.

 

2:55 Leopardstown – San Salvador @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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Connections had a big chance to send San Salvador into a handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November Meeting, but they decided to send him into the Grade 2 Arkle Trial instead.

It was an interesting decision, but he still ran a good race when fourth behind the subsequent Grade 1 winner L’Eau Du Sud, so the performance is upgradeable.

He’s not tried any handicaps over fences yet, but as a hurdler, he put in a decent effort when winning a Punchestown handicap hurdle off 124 in December 2022.

He’s proven to be a much better chaser than hurdler as he has a Roscommon Grade 3 novice chase to his name.

The form of that race isn’t the strongest, but he beat Jordans in a Listowel novice chase in September who went on to beat Monbeg Park in a Punchestown Grade 3 novice chase.

Although this 2m1f handicap chase is a fairly wide-open contest, the favourite – One Last Tango – has losing distances of 23, 28, 22, 14.5, 19.5, 21, 21, 21, and 21 lengths to his name since his last success.

Furthermore, The Folkes Tiara and The King Of Prs are maybe not the best-handicapped horses in the world.

So, I think San Salvador can show his class in this field.

 

3:40 Kempton – Mahons Glory @ 9/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Yes, I’m back on the Mahons Glory train after last year’s exploits in the 2023 renewal of this contest.

He won off 126 last year when bucking out from the front under Sam Twiston-Davies, and although his rating of 132 is 6lbs higher, Dylan Johnston claims a valuable 3lbs off his back to give him a competitive mark.

The form is working out nicely as well. Emailandy, the second, finished third in a valuable Sandown handicap and then won a Plumpton handicap off 129. Even the fourth, Mark Of Gold, won a Grade 2 novice chase last week.

Patrick Neville sent him over fences at the start of this season, and while his first effort behind Hyland was solid, the final two left a bit to be desired.

That Hyland form looks nice now as he went on to win twice at Cheltenham subsequently, the latter of which in a Listed race.

I must admit, this year’s renewal is hotter than 12 months ago, but he is nicely handicapped and will like the good ground.

The Long Walk Hurdle headlines the action from Ascot today, and the surrounding card is very nice.

Very quickly, the P/L sits on 12.85pts for the month at an ROI of 49%, so the overall column is 54.9pts in profit at an ROI of 10%.

Anyway, let’s dive in.

 

1:50 Ascot – Fil Dor @ 13/2 with Betfair – 1pt Win

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The graduation chase at Ascot on Saturday is a great race that includes three Irish horses, and I think Fil Dor could take this.

He’s race-fit, something Jungle Boogie and James Du Berlais lack, and I’ve always thought he would need a trip in time.

When running in juvenile races, he showed plenty of stamina, notably when staying-on behind Vauban in the 2022 Triumph Hurdle, but connections have waited to step him probably up in trip.

They milled about at two miles over fences for a while, and when he did step up in trip, he ran over hurdles in the 2023 Coral Cup.

Last season went better for him as he finished second to both Dinoblue and El Fabiolo over two miles, though the second half of the campaign petered out slightly.

Conditions should work and I’m happy to chance him at the prices.

 

2:25 Ascot – Blueking d’Oroux @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Blueking d’Oroux produced a nice run on seasonal reappearance last month and, much like my selection in the last race, I’m hopeful he’ll come on for the run.

He finished around some nice horses in the Ascot Hurdle last month and he did well considering the race occurred on good ground over 2m3f.

Lucky Place, fourth in the Coral Cup, won the contest with the talented Golden Ace back in fourth when getting 10lbs from Blueking d’Oroux.

Although he won on seasonal reappearance last campaign, he produced a much better performance when beating Strong Leader over 2m3f on his next start which is obviously strong form.

He’s now five, so he could still improve, and I think he can turn into a lovely stayer this season.

He seems like a solid each-way prospect.

 

2:25 Ascot – Kateira @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

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However, I also want Kateira on my side as she can progress enough to win this.

Her Jango Baie form from Aintree is very good, and that specific form line got a little boost yesterday as Personal Ambition, the horse who beat him in the Grade 2 Premier Novices’ Hurdle last season, should have won the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot yesterday if not for his final fence mistake.

As a novice hurdler, she finished second in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle to Irish Point, and she was ahead of Hermes Allen, Letsbeclearaboutit, You Wear It Well, Springwell Bay, and Crambo that day.

The slightly better ground will suit her and I’m hoping the nature of Ascot will allow her to get three miles here.

 

3:00 Ascot – Flegmatik @ 11/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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Based on yesterday, it looked like a sound surface at Ascot, and that should play into the hands of Flegmatik off a good mark.

His last winking mark was 137, but Tristan Durrell claimed 3lbs that day, so today’s rating of 134 has him well-handicapped.

He beat a nice horse during his last win as Chianti Classico, the subsequent Ultima winner, finished second to him at Kempton in January on good to soft ground.

He also ran well off 140 twice last season in the Coral Trophy and another Kempton handicap, so three miles around Ascot will work.

Dan Skelton may have bigger targets for him in the new year, but he’s well-weighted to go nicely here and the conditions suit him.

 

3:35 Ascot – Kabral Du Mathan @ 4/1 with William Hill\ – 1pt Win

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At an ante-post stage, Kabral Du Mathan looked a nice price, but his price has become tight now.

Still, much like when you’re pot-committed in poker, I’m calling to see what he produces.

He’s wildly unexposed for Paul Nicholls as he’s won all three of his starts, two of which for his current connections.

In a time when Nicholls’ horses have come on for their runs, the four-year-old looked smart when winning off 123 on handicap debut at Kempton last month.

Hopefully, he comes on for that even further, because if he does, he could well turn into a Graded animal in no time at all.

With a generous rating of 131 now, many horses have to give this classy horse weight and the better ground conditions should work.