Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Ahead of Sun Chariot Day on ITV Racing, The Top Three is in a good run of form following the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe card last week.

    All three of Sunday’s selections returned profit and the weekly column finally found a big-priced winner as Kelina fought off the challenge of Kinross to win the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at 16/1.

    Hopefully this can continue on what is an action-packed Saturday as I have three horses to consider from Ascot and Newmarket.

     

    1:50 Ascot: Emaraaty Ana @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s always hard to walk away from one of your cliff horses as you always ask yourself the question of ‘what if’.

    Luckily, coming into the 2023 Flat season I had managed to shake my attachment to Emaraaty Ana, however, I’ve fallen off the wagon and now firmly believe he is the most likely winner of the Listed Rous Stakes at Ascot at 11/4.

    The seven-year-old stalwart returns to five furlongs for the first time since his third in the 2022 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes behind Highfield Princess and The Platinum Queen, though he did finish a very good second in the most recent Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint behind Caravel over five-and-a-half furlongs.

    Add his second to Winter Power in the 2021 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes and facile victory at Hamilton in July 2021 into the mix and his record over the minimum distance begins to read favourably.

    Despite his age and 31 runs under rules, Kevin Ryan’s Shamardal gelding appears to be in good form based on his neck second to Lezoo – a Group 1 Cheveley Park winner – in the Listed Hopeful Stakes earlier this season as well as his fair third in the Listed Garrowby Stakes at York last month.

    Admittedly, I did question if I was missing something when I saw his price of 11/4 this morning, but his draw in stall two appears to be accounted into his price as high draws were benefitting on the straight course at Ascot yesterday.

    I’m hopeful that his class and a bit of luck can make up for his draw because if this happens, Emaraaty Ana holds a strong chance to return to the winners’ enclosure for the first time in over two years.

     

    2:40 Newmarket: Queen Emma @ 5/2 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Despite my constant barrage of Tony Carroll propaganda, the William Haggas stable ranks quite highly on the list of my favourite trainers in the Flat game.

    From the jockeys they use to how Haggas is in post-race interviews and everything in between, there’s a lot to like.

    Somerville Lodge has eight runners across four tracks to keep an eye on today, though Queen Emma is the one I’m most excited to see in the 1m4f fillies’ handicap at Newmarket.

    The three-year-old by Saxon Warrior comes into her third handicap contest in good form following two victories and a second in her last three races.

    One of those successes came at Goodwood in late August where she travelled smartly into the race and, after a bit of encouragement from Adam Farragher, showed her three rivals a clean set of heels; the second, Madame Ambassador, bolted up by four lengths at Newmarket on her next start, suggesting the form is reliable.

    Furthermore, she was equally as impressive during her first victory of the season as she came four-wide around the bend at Lingfield and managed to make up the five-length deficit between her and the runner-up Marmara Sea with ease; similarly to her Goodwood win, the form looks good as Marmara Sea won on handicap debut at Haydock less than two months later.

    Although she failed to make it a hat-trick last time out, the softer conditions potentially stumped her chances slightly, so the return to a better surface should suit today.

    All in, the booking of Frankie Dettori can only be a positive move for Queen Emma who looks to hold a brilliant chance in the 2:45 at Newmarket.

     

    4:45 Ascot: Existent @ 11/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    I’ve stuck with the theme of horses running in yellow and black silks at Ascot today as in the finale, Existent deserves a chance at 11/1 with Boylesports.

    On paper, plenty would suggest that trusting Stuart Williams’ five-year-old by Kingman is a brave move considering the last time he found the winners’ enclosure was 20 runs ago, yet I’m reluctant to leave him alone thanks to his well-handicapped nature.

    That’s because his official rating of 90 is 10 pounds below his Goodwood second in August, 12 pounds below his promising fifth over course and distance last month and four pounds below his last winning mark.

    That is an incredible fall through the weights for a horse who finished fourth in the Group 2 Temple Stakes in late May, just half a length behind the subsequent Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner Live In The Dream.

    Out of stall 10, Existent is the best horse in this race on bare form and with Hector Crouch, a jockey who knows him, back in the saddle, he looks a decent each-way play in the final race at Ascot.

  • Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Another week, another Group One. This time it’s the Sun Chariot Stakes over on the Rowley Mile, whilst the two-year-olds are in action in the Tattersalls October Sales Race. There’s also the Two-Year-Old Trophy up North at Redcar, and the handicap action comes from Ascot with the Challenge Cup. It’s those races we focus on for this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Newmarket

    Running in the dark

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    2:05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes – Midnite Runner @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    An interesting fact about this fairly new sales race is the Northern trainers have a good record in the race. David Barron, Julie Camacho and Les Eyre have all won this race in the past nine renewals. And it’s another Northern trainer that looks to have some potential to cause an upset to the odds-on favourite. Despite racing green in the early stages, Midnite Runner rallied well in the final quarter mile to win my one-and-a-half lengths. The form hasn’t been thoroughly tested, so Michael Dods looks to have a horse with potential here.

    Further down the market, Drama makes some appeal for James Ferguson and Saffie Osborne. He didn’t perform in the Somerville Auction Stakes on the July course, but you could excuse that to firm ground. His only win came on similar ground, in a novice stakes at Windsor. With Saffie continuing her great form for the season, Drama may be one to consider at 16/1 (Betfred)

    Another for the shortlist is Lieutenant Rascal. Bred by U S Navy Flag, he is the speedy type. But on evidence on his last two runs, he would like the slight step up in trip to six furlongs. He’s had a busy season, even finishing towards the rear in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. His last two performances are the evidence to go on, and can end a barren run for trainer George Scott. 22/1 (Betfred).

     

    On the quiet

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    3:15 – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group One) – Meditate @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    People have been easy to dismiss this horse. She’s always fallen to her superior rival Tahiyra and underperformed in the Prix Jean Prat. But, with no Tahyira and what looks like a weakish Group One on paper, she can certainly hit the frame. In recent renewals, the favourite has been overturned and that makes me prefer Meditate over Inspiral.

     

    Ascot

    Sweet and Smoky

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    3:35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Hickory @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Hickory comes into this in good form. A consistent performer over seven furlongs, he started to enter the conversation with two placed efforts over C&D. Trainer James Fanshawe has aimed him for this handicap, and got in on the bottom weight, which is a big bonus. He wasn’t too far behind Baradar, who reopposes him here, and neither Quinault last time out, who also features. The ground will be to his liking, and is drawn to the far side, which can help him.

    Three-year-olds start to come alive at this time in the season and a youngster who has a chance is Glenfinnian. He’s won over C&D in a classified stakes race and didn’t perform on the ground last time out. He comes in on a nice low weight, and a handy stand-side draw. Andrew Balding has tasted success recently over C&D with Alsakib, and has another live chance here at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Redcar

    Action stations

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    2:45 – William Hill Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) – Action Point @ 17/2 (General)

    Dragon Leader is the overwhelming favourite. And whilst favourites do have a good record, he can be opposed. And Action Point looks to be that rival. He drops in Grade from a French Group Three to a Listed contest, which was the last class of race he won at. The ground will be perfect for him, as he ran creditably on similar ground at Chantilly last time out, but far too firm at York. This should be an interesting race, as Dragon Leader won’t have the ground to his usual rattling preference.

    The very best of luck!

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Day one of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe began well yesterday as the best bet of the day, VANDEEK, obliged in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, further improving his reputation and my love for him.

    Today, the feature event takes place at 3:05 and I have a fancy to share as well as two other horses to consider.

    It’s set to be a brilliant day today and I can’t wait for the action to begin.

     

    3:05 Longchamp: Westover @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As is the nature of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, no one would be knocked off their feet if any of the 15 runners passed the famous winning post in front.

    Remember, it’s only been two years since Torquator Tasso won the prestigious 1m4f contest at odds of 72/1, so anything can truly happen.

    I’m hoping that won’t happen this year as Westover is my number one Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe horse.

    The four-year-old colt by Frankel has performed brilliantly all season in four separate Group 1 races; his worst run of the year occurred when second to Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup at Epsom which says a lot.

    Ralph Beckett’s stable star began the season with a massive run in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Meydan behind the world-class Equinox; three horses who finished behind Westover in the Sheema Classic – Zagrey, Russian Emperor, and Mostahdaf – have all won Group 1 races since with the latter succeeding in the Prince Of Wales’s and Juddmonte International.

    Following his fine effort at Epsom in June, he swept aside Zagrey in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before his valiant effort when second to Hukum in the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes on his most recent outing.

    The reason why I’m with Westover rather than Hukum is due to the difference in the draw – stall one for Westover against stall 14 for Hukum – and there seems to be an aroma around Owen Burrows’ Sea The Stars entire that he doesn’t want rattling fast ground.

    With this in mind, Westover will have no problems with the official going of good, good to firm in places, and at 7/1, he is my bet in the season-defining race.

     

    3:50 Longchamp: Lumiere Rock @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Opera is a tricky puzzle to work out as many questions require answers ahead of the 10-furlong fillies and mares contest.

    Will Blue Rose Cen bounce back on the ground? Can we forgive Al Husn for York? Why has Tony Carroll not got a runner in the race?

    Each of those questions is as pertinent as one another, though the horse who seems to hold most of the answers is Joseph O’Brien’s Lumiere Rock at 6/1.

    The chestnut filly by Saxon Warrior is no stranger to competitive, high-class races thanks to her five consecutive attempts in Group-level contests since the start of May.

    The three-year-old, purchased for just 55,000gns at the 2021 Tattersalls October Yearlings Sale, got her head in front for the first time this season in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes last time out.

    Again, one could question where Jackie Oh, who reappears today, might have finished if her path to the line was clear, yet let’s take nothing away from the eventual winner who looked like the winner for the majority of the contest.

    Furthermore, her second in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot reads favourably thanks to two subsequent Group 1 victories for the winner, Warm Heart; Bluestocking (3rd) ran well on her next two starts in Group 1 company and even the eighth, Lmay, finished third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster recently.

    She is likely to appreciate the better ground and with the cheekpieces remaining on for today’s task, Lumiere Rock should be a lively contender in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

     

    5:00 Longchamp: Kelina @ 16/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    My persistence to take on Kinross at every station this season has experienced its ups and downs, though my bank account is beginning to get worried after his two victories at York and Goodwood recently.

    Despite his obvious claims, the 16/1 floating about for Kelina in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret is too big to leave alone as an each-way proposition.

    The three-year-old filly by Frankel receives a handy four pounds from her older rivals and has progressed nicely for trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias this season.

    Her 2023 kicked off with a nice second in a one-mile event at Longchamp on soft ground in April before a valiant effort to finish fourth in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches behind Blue Rose Cen, a future Group 1 Prix de Diane winner.

    After that, she dropped down in class for the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham where she easily dismissed Sauterne, one of the market principles for the Prix de l’Opera, on her only start on good ground.

    This race is key as looking at her knee action for both her French 1000 Guineas fourth and this success, she seemingly likes to glide into her races rather than using a big stride like Blue Rose Cen has, suggesting today’s good ground should be preferable.

    Although she disappointed at Deauville in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild, that occurred on soft ground so excuses can be made and her effort in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin last time out was respectable.

    Back on faster ground and dropping in trip to seven furlongs, Kelina looks like a fair each-way bet at 16/1.

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The Best is Yet to Come

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The Best is Yet to Come

    Every year, there’s a buzz around the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe that is tough to describe.

    Boil the race down and it’s a 1m4f European Group 1, the same type of race we see at the big racing festivals throughout the Flat season.

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    But the Arc is so much more than that; there’s history, nearly £4.5 million in prize money, and an international interest that attracts horses from the UK, Ireland, Germany, France, and even Japan.

    This year’s race looks wide open, and I’ll discuss my fancy in a bonus BestofBets.com column tomorrow, but as for today, there are three horses that I want to be with on Saturday from both Newmarket and Longchamp.

    With good ground expected at both tracks, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Newmarket: Sacred Angel @ 9/2 General – 2pt Win

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    My interest in this year’s Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes took a hit yesterday when the news came out about Relief Rally’s lack of involvement due to a dirty scope.

    As much as the news was sad, my second look at the fillies-only six-furlong contest saw me land on Sacred Angel for Charlie Johnston and James Doyle.

    The Dark Angel filly has raced four times for the Middleham-based yard, winning two of them in commanding fashion from a prominent position.

    The first of these victories came on the Newmarket July Course when a dominant winner of a six-furlong maiden on good to firm ground; she beat Ornellaia (3rd) that day, a horse who won at Glorious Goodwood, finished second in a Group 2 in Deauville, and third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes since.

    Despite the manner of her win, she rocked up to the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes in July as a 16/1-shot and blew the field apart under Jason Hart.

    On collateral form, she put four-and-a-quarter lengths between herself and Symbology who went on to finish a length-and-a-quarter behind Relief Rally in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes next time out.

    Following that victory, connections sent her against the colts in the Group 1 Morny on her first start in softer conditions; despite the slow surface, she showed great character to finish fourth behind Vandeek, Ramatuelle, and River Tiber, potentially some of the most exciting juveniles in the division.

    Today, she has a low draw to overcome which could hinder her chances, but her ability is apparent and 5/1 is a fair price for Sacred Angel in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes.

     

    3:00 Newmarket: Vandeek @ 13/8 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    If I’m a fan of Sacred Angel in the proceeding race then I can’t let Vandeek go off unmentioned in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes.

    The Simon & Ed Crisford-trained two-year-old is three from three this year, a run that includes the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time out.

    Of the two, his performance in the Group 1 contest impressed me the most as the ground was officially described as very soft, yet Andrea Atzeni still rode a calm race from the rear of the pack and bided his time.

    This paid off as the beautiful mover cruised into the contest behind the well-backed Ramatuelle and just did enough in time to get up on the line.

    That run completed a hat-trick of wins in softer conditions, though a look through his pedigree suggests that better ground could see him improve further.

    By Havana Grey, a sire who has seen the majority of his offspring race successfully on good or better ground, his Mukhadram half-brother, Mine’s A Double, won three times in a row on good to firm ground, so that offers hope to the idea that he can handle a quicker surface.

    In what is a competitive race that could see the likes of Task Force and Lake Forest outperform their odds, Vandeek is a worthy favourite and should be respected.

     

    4:08 Longchamp: Embesto @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    It really is a shame that Roaring Lion is no longer around to continue what should have been a long and fruitful stallion career because this year has been a standout year for his progeny.

    Running Lion, Saint George, and Valiant King have all performed to great ability over the summer without landing a Group-level race, something that Embesto has achieved.

    The Roger Varian-trained three-year-old dead-heated with Mighty Ulysses last time out in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes when showing plenty of promise; Mighty Ulysses is a hardy colt for John & Thady Gosden who finished a close fifth in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes behind Coroebus in 2022 and even beat Alflaila, a horse who would go on to win four races in a row, by just over a length in the Listed Pomfret Stakes.

    Furthermore, Regal Reality crossed the line in third that day and has since finished a staying-on second to Mutasaabeq in the Group 2 Joel Stakes yesterday.

    On that form, he requires respect and he is one of the few in this field that prefers better ground unlike some of the market principles ahead of him.

    Admittedly, Isaac Shelby could show us all what he promised in defeat to the likes of Kinross and Paddington this season, but on the chance that he doesn’t appreciate the ground, the each-way angle of Embesto intrigues me at 6/1.

  • Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    It’s a great weekend for sports fans. The Ryder Cup is in full swing, another great weekend of Premier League football and the Rugby World Cup continues. Plus, it’s Arc weekend. For two days Europe’s elite head to ParisLongchamp for Europe’s biggest prize named after one of the city’s most famous landmark. Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? And there’s the small matter of the Cambridgeshire too.

    Saturday – Newmarket

    A Pot of Fortuna

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    2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally is a really unfortunate non-runner, as she has been the standout this season. But the race opens up and, despite the market headed by a talented French filly, I think one at a price can nab this. Porta Fortuna has been placed twice in her two Group One races and steps back to a more suitable six furlongs. She’ll appreciate the firmness at Newmarket today and jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on her once again.

    Another filly that will appreciate the quickness of the ground is Symbology. She’s ran green a few times, and didn’t help her cause at Salisbury last time out. She wasn’t too far away in the Lowther, which is the form you have to consider for this race, and Clive Cox does have a decent crop of two-year-olds in his stable. Not without hope at 22/1 (William Hill)

     

    Take Them To Task

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    3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group One) – Task Force @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    As of last night, Task Force has been backed in to single figures. And with good reason. Already a Listed winner by winning the Ripon 2-Y-O Trophy, he is bred to act on the ground.

    He may be by Frankel, but his Dam, Special Duty, won the Cheveley Park Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground. If that’s not an omen for this seventh foal of hers, I don’t know what is. Seven Questions is the next best horse to come out of the race and he can really act to beat the two big guns today.

    Jasour is another I really fancy. He’s proven on firm ground, with two wins including a Group Two on the quick stuff. He disappointed in the Prix Morny and led all the way, which showed he was green on the day. He has won races before from the rear of the field, which may be the way to ride him on the Rowley Mile. Double-figure price at 10/1 (William Hill)

     

    Identify This Winner

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire Heritage H’cap – Dual Identity @ 11/1 (General)

    When it comes to a 35-runner handicap, there shouldn’t be a 7/2 favourite. Ever. So I’ve immediately discounted Greek Order from my thinking for this race. And it didn’t take me long to find my main pick. Dual Identity had a great third in last year’s race and has only risen four pounds up the weights since then. A fantastic performance at Sandown aimed him squarely for this race, and looks in ideal nick to go better this time around.

    Majestic won last year’s event, and in some fashion too. Young Aiden Brooks has been overtaken by Benoit de la Sayette for this year’s crack, and won’t be too far away this time round. He will carry more weight this year, but a mark of 89 is suitable, particularly since he has been in the 90’s all this season.

    His best performance came at Epsom when second to Cadillac on firm ground, so has that in his favour this year too. He could become the first horse since Prince De Galles in 1970 to win the race back to back, 14/1 (Betfred, William Hill) says he doesn’t.

    And three-year-olds begin to come into their own in handicaps at this time of year, so it would be remiss to not back one here, despite the last youngster to win was Lord North in 2019. Terwada for Ed Walker looks interesting after a rather a good season in the form book. His first big runner handicap at York was a baptism of fire, finishing in the top half of the field.

    He’ll have to rely on a nine length win in a maiden to win here, but he’s only five pounds higher than his previous winning mark for a horse continuously improving. 18/1 (General) is a price worth having.

     

    Sunday – ParisLongchamp

    Rewrite the History Huk-s

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    3:05 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group One) – Hukum @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The last horse that was above the age of six was Motrico in 1932. The last horse to win from stall 14 was Golden Horn’s miracle win in 2014. The stats are firmly against him. But I think stats have their place. I rely on stats all the time, but when you fall in love with a horse like Hukum you can’t escape it.

    A winner over further, a tough a ready winner when he won the King George in July, he looks set for the race. He’s been kept fresh and this was the clear aim, in what could be his last race in his career. He might not go down as one of the greats, but if he wins he’ll certainly be popular.

    The very best of luck!

  • Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting | Weld’s Classic form is key

    Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting | Weld’s Classic form is key

    Today is a brilliant day for sport with the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting on ITV and day one of the Ryder Cup taking centre stage.

    Despite the constant flicking between the golf and racing channels throughout the day, my full attention turned to the racecards yesterday and as a result, two horses have grabbed my attention, so let’s see who they are.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – Tarawa @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

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    The Listed Rosemary Stakes opens today’s Newmarket action on ITV and I’m hoping Irish raider Tarawa can get her long-awaited head in front.

    Sporting the first-time cheekpieces, the Dermot Weld-trained three-year-old has been a regular runner this year thanks to her six outings since the start of May; in five runs, she ran to an RPR in excess of 104, showing her consistency in quality races.

    Tarawa is a horse that entered my tracker after her second run of the season in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas where she found herself tucked away under Billy Lee for the majority of the race before staying on towards the finish behind stablemate Tahiyra (a four-time Group 1 winner), Meditate, and Comhra.

    Furthermore, the supplemented Jackie Oh (now rated 107) finished two lengths behind her in fifth and Breege, the Sandringham Stakes runner-up, was even further back in seventh, so the form of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks above average.

    Her held-up style of racing came to the fore again last time out in the Group 2 Dullingham Park Stakes at Leopardstown earlier this month, a contest that saw her complete the race in fifth while powering through the line from the rear of the field.

    If her usual tactics are repeated today – something that has differed in the past, as shown by her third in the Group 2 Romanised Minstrel Stakes in July – she should have a few horses to aim at thanks to the prominent running styles of Queen For You and Quick Change.

    Tarawa looks a strong contender in the second race at Newmarket today and with Shane Lowry lighting up Rome in the Ryder Cup, hopefully, another Irish star can rise to the top on overseas soil.

     

     

    2:25 Newmarket – Novakai @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Novakai is a horse that I’ve managed to avoid backing on her last two runs which has worked out both positively and negatively.

    The first of these misses came in late July when she made a big impression in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes under Sam James to sprint clear by nearly five lengths; this occurred on her first start at 12 furlongs, so she seemed to relish the new trip.

    The form of this race received a boost two weeks ago as the fourth, Lmay, notably improved to finish a good third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    On her next start, the Karl Burke-trained three-year-old received plenty of market support in the 24 hours leading up to the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks and even hit a low price of 7/1 in the morning of the contest.

    However, the market corrected itself before the off and despite her starting price of 10/1, she disappointed to finish seventh, though she began to rally in the final furlong.

    If you ignore her 11th in the Group 1 Prix de Diane earlier this year, her second to Soul Sister in the Group 3 Musidora stands out amongst the crowd and her runners-up medal in last season’s Group 1 Fillies’ Mile is also a great piece of form.

    With conditions set to suit and in receipt of weight from her elders, Voodoo Queen and Peripatetic, her price of 6/1 looks fair for the reasons stated above.

  • Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm – The Top Three

    Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm – The Top Three

    Ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend, The Top Three could be on for a potential four-in-a-row if all three selections win later today.

    This is thanks to Liberty Lane’s victory at Doncaster last week as my final selection of the St Leger Festival, a race that certainly raised my heart rate higher than I had previously expected.

    Securing a 100%-win rate from four selections isn’t easy, but I thought I’d start this week’s piece with a little bit of humorous hope.

    Away from my beckoning career as a stand-up comedian, three horses look like interesting candidates at both Ayr and Newbury today including a 14/1-shot in the opening Scottish contest.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Stormbuster @ 14/1 General – 1pt EW

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    There’s something about three-year-olds in open grade handicaps that always catches my eye and the same goes for Stormbuster at 14/1 in the opening one-mile contest at Ayr.

    The well-bred Dubawi colt is out of Barshiba, a Group 2 Lancashire Oaks winner in 2010, making him a full-brother to the 2015 Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes victor Arabian Queen.

    So far, the Andrew Balding-trained colt hasn’t shown that genetic ability too well on the track, however, he bolted up by five lengths on his fourth start as a two-year-old and finished third to Isaac Shelby on debut; he was even sent off 7/1 for the Group 1 Vertem Futurity and ran well for a long time despite being on the wrong side of the track in attritional conditions.

    This year, just six rivals have finished behind him in four races, however, there are excuses for these performances.

    Firstly, his first two runs occurred over 10 furlongs, a distance he has yet to truly see out, and in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester in May, he travelled well before colliding with two horses and soon stopped quickly.

    Two poor performances in quicker conditions are understandable as he has a preference towards softer ground, something connections agree with as he was a non-runner at Salisbury earlier this month for the unsuitable official going of good to firm.

    Back on a slower surface and off a lowly mark of 89, with his four-pound three-year-old allowance, today could be the day to catch him in a winnable handicap.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Nymphadora @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt win

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    The well-known colours of St Albans Bloodstock Limited make up two of the five runners in the Group 3 World Trophy Stakes at Newbury, yet it’s the longer-priced runner of the duo, Nymphadora, that I’m siding with.

    Firstly, soft ground and five furlongs are what she thrives off, as shown by her two victories this season at Chester and York; she even tried to Live In The Dream, a future Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner, four pounds in weight at Chester last year when second on good-to-soft ground.

    This liking towards soft ground is an unknown for her owner-mate, Sense Of Duty, who heads the market despite drifting out to 2/1 from 5/4 throughout the week.

    Due to a setback, the last time Sense Of Duty appeared on track was at Newcastle over six furlongs when an impressive winner of the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes; connections have their eyes on the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes in October, so this race looks like a nice preparation to get her 100% for that target.

    Sense Of Duty has yet to race over five furlongs or soft ground, and with her dam, Margaret’s Mission, a one-mile winner on good-to-firm, it would take a braver man than myself to be backing her today.

    With that in mind, both Raasel and Nymphadora are the horses that will enjoy the ground, with preference falling to the younger filly who should be fresher and receives three pounds from Michael Appleby’s six-year-old gelding.

     

    3:00 Ayr – Navassa Island @ 4/1 with William Hill – 3pt win

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    Readers of the Ante-post Analysis column or watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast could be sat on a nice ante-post docket for Navassa Island in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at 3:00 today.

    Of course, you can’t eat value, but the Michael O’Callaghan-trained two-year-old has more than halved in price to 4/1 for the £40,000 contest.

    For full reasoning behind her chances, click here for the link to Wednesday’s piece, but now we know the full field, let’s see what the pace of the race could be like.

    The likely pace angles look to be provided through Exponista (stall five), Dorothy Lawrence (stall six) and Imperiality (stall seven) while the likes of Bellarchi (stall three) and Raqiya (stall two) have made all with success in the past.

    That is plenty of pace in a nine-runner juvenile field, something that should benefit Navassa Island as her second to Porta Fortuna on debut came from an off-the-pace ride.

    Hopefully, I have done my calculations correctly because if I have, Navassa Island looks like an exciting prospect in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde.

  • Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    As we near the end of the flat season, we’re starting to work out the best of the best. But that’s put on hold for the moment, as we head up to Ayrshire for another big sprint handicap worth its weight in Bronze, Silver and Gold. The Ayr Gold Cup takes centre stage and I’ve picked out three over the border plus one in the Mill Reef to make today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ayr

    Not Jumping just yet

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    2:25 – Ayr Silver Cup H’cap – Jump The Gun @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    Jump The Gun returns to this race 10lbs lower than last time. He hasn’t had the most stellar of seasons, tumbling down the weights until a fantastic run last time out in a handicap at Doncaster. He’s back up to a class two handicap and shouldn’t’ find it too difficult from stall 12. Last year he was denied a clear run, but a good break and a bit of luck will help him and William Pyle.

    Another horse low down in the weights who catches the eye is Aplomb for Eve Johnson Houghton. Very lightly raced this season, and returns to the Silver Cup seven pounds lower than last year’s effort in sixth. A near miss last time out at Goodwood has him in good form, and has a nice each-way price on him at 11/1 (Betfred)

    And what is a big Ayr sprint handicap with a few Jim Goldie runners. The Renfrewshire trainer saddles three here, but I like Be Proud at a big price. His best efforts coming over the six furlongs, so excuse his run in the Racing League, and he’s on softer ground today. Mark Winn may have only had one win in the last two weeks, but he takes a crucial three pounds off here and has a chance at 28/1 (William Hill)

     

    Talking ‘bout my Generation

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    3:00 – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) – Great Generation @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    This race doesn’t really produce future classic winners, but it can produce some fairly decent type fillies. She’s unbeaten and won with plenty in hand last time out at Chester. She’s by Holy Roman Emperor and will like the cut in the ground today, as she has on her previous two runs. She poses a significant danger to the favourites and I’m taking advantage of that.

     

    Raze the roof

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    3:35 – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Orazio @ 15/2 (Betfred)

    The big one is headed by Orazio, who hasn’t turned up in the big sprints. Both runs in the Wokingham and the Steward’s Cup were disappointing to say the least. But he’s back on sounder ground here for the Ayr Gold Cup. and has been kept fresh by Charlie Hills, which is a big plus in my books. He’s drawn right near the rail in stall 23, and all these positives mean I just can’t look past the favourite.

    The next best in the race doesn’t come much closer than Significantly. He ran an absolute stormer in the Portland and has been rather underestimated all season. He’s on the same mark as last week’s run and he’s low in the weights. What more could Julie Camacho want? His performances in handicaps at this level this season have been 262, which puts him bang up there at the finish. Well found in the market at 9/1 (Betfred).

    Fast Response caught my eye when the declarations came out. His mark of 103 may look too much to handle, but Brandon Wilkie’s seven pounds puts him at a workable mark of 96, a pound above his winning mark in the Wentworth. He drops in trip to six furlongs after racing at seven this term, and wasn’t too far away in the Queensferry last time out. Interesting at 12/1 (Betfred)

     

    Newbury

    A small selection

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    3:15 – Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) – Array @ 5/1 (Betfred)

    Winners of this race commonly come from a Group race last time out, particularly the Sirenia at Kempton. The one who follows that line of form is Array for Andrew Balding. He wasn’t too far behind Starlust on the Tapeta, but he’s back on a sound turf surface today. He’s by No Nay Never and plenty of black-type runs in the family. He’s improving all the time and can work the Sirenia form in his favour.

    The very best of luck!

  • Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Following a break last week due to the Doncaster St Leger meeting, today sees a return for the Ante-post Analysis column ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend. 

    Two horses are on my agenda ahead of tomorrow’s declarations for the Scottish track, so let’s dive in. 

     

    Island could be in paradise 

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    In 2011, the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde went the way of Roger Sez for Tim Easterby and 12 years on, her filly by Territories, Navassa Island, will be hoping to emulate her dam. 

    The Michael O’Callaghan-trained two-year-old caught the eye on debut in May when second in the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas. 

    She finished just a neck behind Porta Fortuna that day despite experiencing a tough route through the race; the winner has since won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot before a runners-up medal in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and a good third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes. 

    Fast forward two months and Navassa Island stepped up in trip to an extended seven furlongs at the Curragh where she ran well but seemingly didn’t see out the distance. 

    Connections agreed with this view as they brought her back to six furlongs last month and was a comfortable winner at the Curragh; the second, She’s Quality, bolted up on her next start at Sandown and the third, Letsbefranksboutit, succeeded in the Group 3 Round Table Stakes 13 days later.

    A look through her pedigree suggests that soft ground could be fine, though this is an unknown, and at 10/1, I’m hopeful of a big run from Navassa Island. 

     

    Group horse in a handicap 

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    This Flat season, high-rated horses have dropped into handicaps with a decent weight on their back to good effect; Ancient Rome at Glorious Goodwood and Equilateral at York instantly spring to mind.

    Although Rohaan has a slightly different profile to both mentioned examples, he still holds a good chance in Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1. 

    Firstly, the David Evans-trained five-year-old is four pounds wrong at the weights off a mark of 104 as the handicapper has dropped his mark since the entry stage thanks to two disappointing efforts.

    Despite this, with the rain set to hit the South Ayrshire track ahead of their premier Flat race of the year, he still holds good merit towards the top of weights.

    Once rated 116, the Mayson gelding last visited the winners’ enclosure in October when a comfortable winner of the Group 3 Bengough Stakes on good-to-soft ground.

    Before that, he was a surprise victor of the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on heavy and also won his first Wokingham Stakes off a mark of 112 on soft in 2021.

    Although Rohaan’s form this season leaves a bit to desired, he bounced back to his best having raced poorly ahead of last year’s Wokingham Stakes victory, so there is precedent for him to improve considerably.

    At 14/1, he is a classy animal and could easily be the best horse on Saturday.

  • St Leger Festival | A Hurricane is brewing – The Top Three

    St Leger Festival | A Hurricane is brewing – The Top Three

    Yesterday’s day two at the St Leger Festival didn’t go the way I had mapped out in my head.

    Wonderwall’s disappointing effort at Chester when sent off the well-backed favourite eclipsed my feelings throughout the day of much hope and yet no success.

    Today seems like a tough day at Doncaster, yet three horses stand out to me in some of the big contests of the day.

    Let’s pray for some Saturday luck to fall my way.

     

    2:25 Doncaster – Hurricane Ivor @ 20/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    There’s something brave about putting up a horse in a 22-runner sprint handicap that I can’t quite describe and after hours of looking and relooking at this race, I considered leaving this contest and moving on.

    However, seeing Hurricane Ivor at 20/1 tempted me, especially with the season that he has had for his new yard in Ireland.

    The Jessica Harrington-trained six-year-old was a regular runner in the UK between the start of 2021 and the end of 2022 for William Haggas, landing a memorable success in the 2021 renewal of the Portland Handicap off an official rating of 102, 10 pounds higher than his current mark.

    After that run, the Ivawood gelding won the Group 3 World Trophy Stakes in what turned out to be his last hurrah for Somerville Lodge.

    His poor form in 2022 saw connections switch the experienced sprinter to Harrington’s base ahead of the 2023 season, something that sparked improvement when fifth in the Listed Woodlands Stakes on soft-to-heavy in April behind Moss Tucker, a Group 1 Flying Five Stakes winner since.

    Another promising run in the Habitat Handicap at the Curragh and four slightly below-par runs since have resulted in the handicapper dropping him 11 pounds since June, a staggering fall through the weights.

    Admittedly, some may say that the former 110-rated animal is regressing, but excuses can be made for all four of his recent defeats, notably due to ground, the wrong trip, and a change in tactics that didn’t work.

    The Harrington stable tends not to waste too many darts when sending one over the water to the UK and with Hurricane Ivor, they have a proven horse in these conditions.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Arrest @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    This year’s St Leger has turned me inside out trying to work out which one to side with, and after much deliberation, Arrest is the one who comes out top of my list to land the final Classic of the year.

    Immediately following his Group 3 Geoffrey Freer victory at Newbury, his claims for Doncaster’s feature event of the year were slightly murky based on the form of the race.

    At the time, beating Ching Shih by just over a length while in receipt of three pounds from the runner-up didn’t look amazing and after David Simcock’s four-year-old finished a well-beaten fourth earlier this week in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes, further questions about that race started to grow.

    However, a second look shows that Oisin Murphy positioned Ching Shih in plumb last and benefitted from a small pace collapse while the horses that raced prominently along with Arrest from the front – Jack Darcy, Klondike, and Kemari – finished in the final three.

    Furthermore, Jack Darcy has since comfortably won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Deauville while employing similar tactics and Shandoz, who was seven lengths behind Arrest in the Geoffrey Freer, ran to an RPR of 110 on his next start when fifth behind Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes.

    Let us not forget that he put six lengths between him and Adelaide River, an Irish Derby and Grand Prix de Paris runner-up, in the Group 3 Chester Vase while also taking a wider route around the tight track.

    Today, John & Thady Gosden’s Frankel colt will race with his preferred softer ground under his hooves and with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, Arrest looks like a tailormade Leger horse.

     

    5:20 Doncaster – Liberty Lane @ 13/2 General – 2pt Win

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    The finale of the St Leger Festival, like the rest of the day, is a competitive contest on paper and despite the enticing profiles of Sonny Liston, Brunch, and Blue for You, my vote falls onto the head of Liberty Lane, one of four three-year-olds in the race.

    Although this seems like a long time ago, the three-year-old by Teofilo was a well-backed favourite for one of the concluding handicaps on Stewards’ Cup day at Glorious Goodwood before racing was called off.

    The persistent rain that day scuppered Karl Burke’s plan for a big handicap prize, however, with some juice in the ground this week, connections have set their sights on today’s £50,000 contest.

    Although the unexposed colt has yet to find the winners’ enclosure since his debut on soft at Nottingham, he was unlucky to run into Waipiro on his next start before an admiral run on slightly unsuitable ground in the Group 2 Dante Stakes.

    Although he was disappointing on good-to-firm ground at Royal Ascot, his performance at Newmarket over a mile on rain-softened ground was more like the real Liberty Lane.

    With his high knee action, today’s tacky surface should suit well and off a mark of 97 – alongside a four-pound weight-for-age allowance – Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s homebred colt is a serious player in the final race of the meeting.