Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    We are over the hump and on the downhill run to the end of this glorious meeting as it’s Royal Ascot Day 4.

    For the first two selections yesterday, COLTRANE was a tough pill to swallow in the Gold Cup and BLESS drifted across the track which didn’t aid her chances. TOIMY SON missed the break in the last race and despite staying on at the line, David Menuisier’s charge couldn’t regain the distance.

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    Anyway, it was a tough day, but hopefully, we can have some more success today.

     

    Albany Stakes – Soprano @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opening race of the day is the Albany Stakes for two-year-old fillies over six furlongs, a race that is always competitive, but it’s SOPRANO that gets my vote of confidence.

    George Boughey hasn’t had the best of weeks at Ascot so far, but this Starspangledbanner filly by Lealas Daughter, a half-sister to three-time Grade 1-winning Obviously, gives him his best hope of a winner.

    Having been bought at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales in October for 100,000GNS, he made his Newmarket debut a winning one over five furlongs, a race he was hurried along in from two furlongs out.

    However, the turn of foot he showed once he got going was impressive and with his 49-day break from the track, it seems connections have had this race over six furlongs in mind for a while.

    In what isn’t a vintage crop for the Albany, Soprano could be the best of the lot.

     

    Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Aimeric @ 10/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    Roger Varian has yet to have a winner at Royal Ascot 2023, however, day four is where I’m hoping that changes as AIMERIC will be carrying my money (the instant curse) at 10/1 with William Hill.

    This Frankel half-brother to none other than Aclaim, the 2017 Prix de la Foret winner turned sire standing at Manton Park, has raced seven times on the track, winning on three occasions.

    The most recent victory came 21 days ago at Doncaster, his first run after a wind and gelding operation.

    That return to form was promising to see as he once beat El Habeeb in a maiden at Chester over 1m4f, a horse who is now rated 110 and ran an eyecatching race behind Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month.

    The handicapper only brandished him with a four-pound rise in the weights for his run last time out and if he can continue to improve on his second run after a wind-op (the age-old cliché), then off a mark of 96, this four-year-old is an interesting way into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

     

    Sandringham Stakes – Jackie Oh @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt WIN

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    An angle into handicaps I always like to follow is the class horse at the top of the weights.

    In this year’s race, JACKIE OH is the one that can hopefully continue Aidan O’Brien’s incredible form this week.

    Having been supplemented into the Irish Guineas for €50,000, she ran a great race behind Tahiyra and Meditate last time out despite the massive hike in class from a Listed event to Group 1 company.

    She seemed to enjoy the better ground last time out and by Galileo out of Jacqueline Quest, a 1000 Guineas runner-up, she has good relations to Line Of Duty (Breeders’ Cup Turf Juvenile winner), Secret State (110-rated Godolphin four-year-old) and Onassis (two-time Listed winner for Charlie Fellowes).

    Hopefully, she will be able to defy her mark of 102 and can continue O’Brien’s streak of Royal Ascot success.

     

    Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes – Rocket Rodney @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    And finally, this series is called ‘The Top Three’, but with the difficulty of splitting these four selections, I’m including them all on the P&L.

    In the finale over five furlongs, ROCKET RODNEY looks wildly overpriced at 22/1 with William Hill.

    Keeping this short and sweet, he looked brilliant in the preliminaries before last year’s Windsor Castle and gave Little Big Bear a great race WHEN beaten by a neck; that form is worth its weight in gold and could receive another boost if O’Brien’s stable star obliges in the Commonwealth Cup.

    He also beat Eddie’s Boy three times last season, a subsequent Group 3 winner, and even put four lengths between himself and Rumstar, another subsequent Group 3 winner, in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown in July.

    If you can ignore his last run of the season on ground that didn’t suit and his seasonal reappearance when he needed the run, returning to a favourable course and distance should benefit his chances and the handicapper has dropped him six pounds in two runs.

    Off 99, with all of that Group-level form, George Scott’s Dandy Man colt is a great each-way chance in the last.

     

    Other fancies for the day (not including on P&L):

    • Little Big Bear 11/10 & Shaquille 9/1 (3:05)
    • Arrest 7/2 (5:35)
  • Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks – The Top Three

    Without trying to sound too much like Racing Twitter, today was tough, very tough.

    The day started well with a nice place at 9/1 with TARRABB in the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, but a disappointing effort from QUEEN AMINATU in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and PEROTTO’s lack of importance in the Royal Hunt Cup ended the day on a negative note.

    That gives us a P&L of -2.2 points from day two, annoying, but not outright horrendous.

    Stick around though as day three includes one of my top three bets of the week, a 66/1 shot, and a 25/1 play in the competitive Britannia Stakes.

     

    Gold Cup (4:20) – Coltrane @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    As much as the Gold Cup can be a tough contest to work out, this year, in my mind, didn’t take too long to work out.

    While it may not be groundbreaking news to you all, COLTRANE is a very good horse and deserves his big day in the sun.

    That being said, deserving a race doesn’t mean you have to back the horse, but in this case, he looks like the obvious bet.

    On last season’s form alone, his fourth in the Goodwood Cup behind Kyprios, Stradivarius, and Trueshan would be good enough to win this race before you even begin to consider the idea that he has progressed in the 11 months since.

    Although plenty of others in here are also improving types – Eldar Eldarov, Emily Dickinson, Courage Mon Ami – Andrew Balding’s six-year-old is no different and in a year that is lacking big guns, he could be the one to take up the mantle.

    The 7/2 with William Hill looks like a very fair price in a field that he can hopefully get the better of.

     

    Britannia Stakes (5:00) – Bless @ 22/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    No French runner has ever won the Britannia Stakes, though that hasn’t stopped me from backing their sole representative in the shape of BLESS at 22/1 with BetVictor.

    Firstly, I will preface this selection with the fact that three-year-old handicaps at this stage of the season are always a nightmare, let alone on the straight course at Ascot with a potential draw bias to deal with.

    However, with jockey Stephane Pasquier flying over to take the ride, this Toronado colt can go close off a mark of 93.

    Looking through his French form, he nearly beat Marhaba Ya Sanafi, a future French 2000 Guineas winner and French Derby third, three starts ago at Chantilly off level weights.

    Furthermore, a look into his second-last run at Longchamp reveals he only finished a head behind Mario Baratti’s Angers, a Seabhac colt who would go on to bolt up by six lengths on his next start in the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas.

    Even his two-year-old maiden victory at Chantilly in November 2022 has seen the form franked thanks to Duc De Kent, who would go on to win two races after that and finish second in a Listed event on his latest start.

    That is some very solid form behind Bless’ chances, and despite his last three races occurring on softer conditions, his pedigree (by Toronado with Le Havre as the damsire) would suggest there is improvement to come on better ground.

    Whether the ground is too rattling quick for his liking or the draw bias is still favouring high draws tomorrow is the danger, but that is accounted into his odds of 22/1 and I’m very intrigued to see how Fabrice Chappet’s three-year-old can perform in the Britannia Stakes.

     

     

    Buckingham Palace Stakes (6:10) – Toimy Son @ 66/1 with William Hill – 0.5pts EW

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    Regular readers of The Top Three column will recognise that I put up TOIMY SON for the Victoria Cup at massive odds last month.

    My case for her last time out revolved around her returning to seven furlongs on soft ground with Cristian Demuro booked to do the steering off a mark of 102.

    Unfortunately, she never really got into the race from the centre of the track.

    However, and rightly so, the handicapper dropped her three pounds for the disappointing effort and with Oisin Murphy back on board, she is one I’m hopeful for at a bit of a price.

    My one worry is the ground. Her pedigree and previous form suggest that softer conditions suit her better, however, there have been murmurs that the David Menuisier team wanted to try her on quicker ground and with the first-time blinkers applied, at 66/1, I will take the chance at her returning to form.

  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us and we will get straight into the selections after looking at yesterday’s results.

    Although the Twitter fancies were good, we made a small loss of 0.9 points yesterday after CALLING THE WIND was placed in the Ascot Stakes to add to the losses of INDESTRUCTIBLE and BOBSLEIGH. That has us on a P&L of 27.75 points profit from 38 points stakes.

    Looking to find pick up tomorrow, let’s get started.

    Duke Of Cambridge Stakes – Queen Aminatu @ 10/1 with Boylesport – 1pt EW

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    Finally, QUEEN AMINATU is going to run.

    Despite being entered a few times after her promising third to Sacred in the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes last time out, connections are now unleashing her at the Berkshire track.

    This filly by Muhaarar has been on my agenda for a while, but the run at Lingfield in May confirmed to me why I liked her so much as she showed great determination and stamina to stay on behind an on-song Sacred, who on her day, can compete in Group 1-level races.

    Although her record on the turf reads 0-6, three of her last five races were successful outings and she will be race fit for tomorrow having raced three races already this year.

    William Haggas’ four-year-old looks like she can step up to the higher levels against the mares and at 10/1 for the Duke Of Cambridge, let’s hope tomorrow is the day.

    Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap – Tarrabb @ 9/1 with Boylesport – 1pt EW

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    If I fancy Queen Aminatu, which is a Group 3 contest, then on collateral form, I am also backing TARRABB in the race directly before at 9/1 with Boylesport.

    This Exceed And Excel filly got the better of my previous fancy in a handicap at Haydock when giving away two pounds and has gone on to run well in two handicaps since.

    Fast forward to this season, Owen Burrows’ four-year-old ran a good race on reappearance at Chelmsford under tomorrow’s jockey, William Buick, and that run should mean she’ll be ready for a tilt at Royal Ascot.

    For a Godolphin-bred filly who only made her debut as a three-year-old, like her sire, Exceed And Excel, and damsire, Pivotal, hopefully, she can continue to get better with age and I will be backing her off a mark of 91.

    Royal Hunt Cup – Perotto @ 7/1 with William Hill – 2pts WIN

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    There is no messing around with this fancy; he either wins or he bombs out.

    I put PEROTTO up earlier in the week on my Ante-post Analysis piece, which went live on Friday, and his price has stayed the same at a general 7/1 with William Hill.

    Having won the Britannia Stakes in 2021 off a three-pound higher mark, a small leap of faith is required to hope that Roger Varian’s five-year-old is back to his best, but efforts behind Triple Time last September, a now Group 1 Queen Anne winner, and Chindit last July, a Group 1 Lockinge Stakes runner-up, showed encouragement towards one big run.

    Back on better ground and using his falling handicap mark to his advantage, his claims are obvious for the Royal Hunt Cup, as explained in the Ante-post Analysis piece, and he should run a good race.

  • Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips – The Top Three

    Five days. 35 races. Five articles.

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    Royal Ascot 2023 is upon us and despite my sheer excitement for the first flag fall, the nerves for my daily articles are in the back of my mind.

    Over the last five weeks, from 32 points stakes, 28.65 points of profit have been achieved at a return of investment of just under 90%.

    That is a lovely feeling, but the Royal meeting is the true acid test and I’m taking it in my stride, approaching the challenge head-on.

    So, let’s dive into Tuesday’s The Top Three article on Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    Coventry Stakes (3:05) – Bobsleigh @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pts EW

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    I feel almost like an uninvited guest to an ultra-exclusive party by talking about a horse that isn’t Asadna or River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes.

    The story of the week on Racing Twitter has been the debate surrounding these two horses involving some of the biggest profiles on the app and of course, a few people took liberties in creating some funny tweets.

    But steering away from this and the top two in the market, I believe BOBSLEIGH at 20/1 with William Hill offers up a little bit of value.

    Like River Tiber and Givemethebeatboys, the two-year-old by Elzaam is unbeaten in two runs and already has the experience of performing on the biggest stage, winning the opening contest on Epsom Oaks day.

    Although Haatem’s misfortune at the starting stalls benefited him, Richard Hannon’s thrice-raced colt headed for home first over Bobsleigh yet found himself comfortably passed in the final furlongs.

    Jockey Charlie Bishop was always confident on his mount despite being six lengths off the pace at the three-furlong pole and I think that a first start on an arrow-straight track could see him continue to progress as at both Epsom and Brighton, he showed inexperience around a bend.

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    There are bigger talking horses in the race who could have a bigger potential, but as for right here, right now, Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner could be one to cause a small upset in the first two-year-old race of the meeting.

     

    St James’s Palace Stakes (4:20) – Indestructible @ 50/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    If you thought 20/1 was big about Bobsleigh, the 50/1 about Indestructible in the feature race of the day is massive in my eyes.

    When you consider that, Kevin Stott, his rider, admitted that “nothing really went his way in the 2000 Guineas as he was bumped out of the stalls, got in behind horses, and he didn’t love the ground” in his latest William Hill blog, I think forgiving his last run is acceptable.

    Then just a small look back to his win in the Craven Stakes victory shows that both The Foxes and Mostabshir won on their next start with the latter now a general 9/1 shot for the same race.

    Although Chaldean beat him twice as a two-year-old, soft ground contributed to his second loss and the other saw them separated by just half a length, so the price difference is too big.

    In that same article quoted above, Stott went on to say: “I think Indestructible has got a massive race in him at Ascot – I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets very close.”

    Bold words for a 50/1 shot and it’s something I can’t get enough of on Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    Ascot Stakes (5:00) – Calling The Wind @ 12/1 with Boylesport – 1.5pt EW

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    My final fancy of the three on Royal Ascot Day 1 comes in the big handicap of the day.

    Without recycling words from Friday’s Ante-post Analysis piece, CALLING THE WIND provides a good betting angle in the Ascot Stakes Handicap.

    The one piece of information that I didn’t have on Friday is the draw from this Authorized gelding and out of stall 13, there should be no worries about him getting a fair trip through the 2m4f contest.

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    Once rated 105, Richard Hughes’ seven-year-old runs off 99 on Tuesday and with Billy Loughnane’s claim on his side as well, that’s a mark of 96, six pounds below his second in the valuable November Handicap at Doncaster in November 2021.

    Back at a fairer track of Ascot and on better ground, the chance of Calling The Wind is obvious with his falling handicap mark and having been as big as 25/1 ante-post, it seems the market also agrees.

  • 33/1 Royal Ascot 2023 Tip – Ante-post analysis

    33/1 Royal Ascot 2023 Tip – Ante-post analysis

    Royal Ascot 2023. The premier Flat racing meeting of the year is only a few days away and with plenty of questions requiring answers on the track, I’ve taken a deep dive into the big races to provide five, yes five, ante-post selections.

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    The five-day meeting is a showcase of the sport’s best worldwide talent and this year should be no different.

    I’m excited for it to start and without any hesitation, let’s begin!

     

    Craven winner overpriced?

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    At 33/1 with BetVictor for a Craven winner after running poorly on ground that wouldn’t have suited, INDESTRUCTIBLE looks overpriced to me in the St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Karl Burke’s colt by Kodiac was very impressive at Newmarket in April having made most of his running from the middle of the track on a day where the far side rail looked to be an advantage.

    Furthermore, in the opening furlong of the Craven, they were a bit slow, but by the time the three-pole rolled around, Kevin Stott was unable to stop his mount from pulling to the front at an even pace, so if the likely pace angle of Mostabshir sets a nice pace we could see a better performance from Indestructible.

    And looking at that Craven form alone, The Foxes in second would go on to win the Dante Stakes at York and Mostabshir, the 7/1 fourth-favourite for the St James’s Palace, was back in fifth place before he bolted up in a novice race at York one month later.

    Of course, I respect the two Guineas winners at the top of the market, more so Chaldean over Paddington, and I think GALERON can be dangerous for Charlie Hills after a promising run in the Irish 2000 Guineas, but at the top of my list for value is Amo Racing’s charge at 33/1 with BetVictor.

     

    Calling on a former fancy

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    Last month’s Chester Cup was a near miss for my two BestOfBets.com selections. Call My Bluff was a good third behind the winner, Metier, and CALLING THE WIND looked like an eyecatcher in sixth.

    I’m siding with one of them again for the Ascot Stakes at 5:00 on Tuesday and it is the latter who gets my vote at 14/1 with BetVictor.

    Last time out, Jamie Spence gave Richard Hughes’ seven-year-old a canny ride to be one of the last off the bridle at Chester, though he wasn’t able to make this count as he found himself in a pocket around the bend.

    Once a gap opened up, he showed a good turn of foot, but Rajinsky moving across him in the final few strides didn’t help and he eased up to the line.

    Despite this great run, the handicapper dropped him one pound for the run and with Billy Loughnane on board next week, he will effectively run off a four-pound lower mark.

    Furthermore, better ground might see him at his best as his third in last year’s Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot and third to Coltrane at Sandown after that suggests he is versatile.

    Calling The Wind is my first handicap bet of the five at 14/1, though he isn’t the last.

     

    Big enough price

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    I start this fancy off with a tone of annoyance.

    Earlier this week, I looked at the early entry handicap races and PEROTTO at 12/1 was an attractive bet in the Royal Hunt Cup.

    Since then, top tipsters Paul Kealy and Rory Delargy have put him up and his price has halved to 7/1 with BetVictor, however, as the title suggests, the price is big enough to still back him.

    In his two years since his Britannia Stakes win in 2021, Roger Varian’s New Bay gelding has yet to return to the winners’ enclosure, which is a small worry, but his runs behind Baaeed, Megallan, Benbatl, My Oberon, Triple Time, and Sir Busker is very good form.

    Now running off his last winning mark of 99, he will be primed for one of the feature handicap contests.

     

    Experience to the fore

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    Moving on to the final day of action at Royal Ascot, I’m taking a chance with EMARAATY ANA at 40/1 with BetVictor to upset the Australian brigade at the top of the market.

    Although he is seven, Kevin Ryan’s Shamardal gelding still showed plenty of life at the Breeders’ Cup when second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint on firm ground over five-and-a-half furlongs.

    The Group 1 winner has only run at Royal Ascot once in his career when disappointing in last year’s renewal of the Jubilee Stakes, however, his record when running after a 50+ day break is 1/11 so the run at York last month should have him set for a big run this time around.

    Although Highfield Princess, if she turns up, has already beaten him at York over five furlongs, Emaraaty Ana was actually ahead of her when they last met in that Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and if they were to meet over six furlongs, that would play to his strengths.

    He may be coming towards the end of his career, but recent runs suggest he is as good as ever and 40/1 is a massive price about Emaraaty Ana.

     

    The best bet

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    And finally, in one of the concluding races of the week, ORAZIO is the NAP at 8/1 with BetVictor in the Wokingham Stakes.

    The four-year-old by Caravaggio was very impressive over course and distance last time out when showing a good turn of foot to comfortably defeat his seven other rivals.

    That Ascot performance directly followed a gutsy effort at Newmarket the month before so he couldn’t be in any better form.

    The promising thing about his recent wins is that it obviously took the yard a bit of time to get him right as shown by his 17-month break from the track at the end of 2021, so now he is winning with confidence, he is finally showing everyone what his £215,000 yearling price tag promised.

    The better ground shouldn’t be a worry and Orazio is the NAP of Royal Ascot.

  • ITV Racing Best Bets – The Top Three

    ITV Racing Best Bets – The Top Three

    Although we are in the no man’s land between the Derby and Royal Ascot, ITV Racing are heading to Haydock to cover a decent day at the northern track.

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    The racing isn’t vintage, yes, but there are some standout bets for this week’s The Top Three column.

    But first, let’s review last week.

     

    Derby Weekend Review

    It’s the fourth week of the series and with 22.40 points of profit from 23 points staked at a ROI of 97%, I am feeling happy about how things have gone.

    Last week saw PROSPEROUS VOYAGE (7/4) made it two from two for the best bets over the last two weeks and thanks to a good second from SILVER SWORD (12/1) in the Lester Piggott Handicap, last week produced a profit of 5.65 points after we staked one point on WAIPIRO (20/1) in the Derby.

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    It’s been a good first three weeks and we are looking ahead to Haydock on ITV Racing to continue the run going.

     

    1:15 Haydock – EQUILATERAL at 3/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    Two weeks ago, DRAMATISED represented the best bet of the week in the Temple Stakes and this week, the runner-up from that day will be the same in the Listed Achilles Stakes.

    He was the flag bearer in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis article at 5/1 and even though he is now 3/1 with William Hill, I’m still with EQUILATERAL in the opener.

    Two weeks ago, the advantageous high-draw bias at Haydock helped Charlie Hills’ Equiano gelding and out of stall 10 this Saturday, that same thing could occur again.

    Also, he gave 11 pounds away to the winner last time out when unfancied in the market and Frankie Dettori gave him an easy-enough ride having only used the whip twice before a hands and heels ride in the final three-quarters of a furlong.

    It will be tough to stop Lanfranco and EQUILATERAL in the opener on Saturday and he is the best bet of the ITV Racing action.

     

    1:50 Haydock – SILVER SAMURAI at 8/1 with BetVictor – 1.5pt EW

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    I’m going to the following race for my next bet and SILVER SAMURAI looks a good price at 8/1 on BetVictor.

    The Cable Bay six-year-old is a Haydock winner as well as placing over a mile at the course in June 2020 so the track will suit.

    Looking at more recent form, Marco Botti’s competitor last won in May 2022 on good ground off a three-pound lower mark, a day where he bolted up under Ben Curtis in facile fashion.

    He improved to a mark of 97 after the victory, but following two mediocre runs in May of this year, he now has an official rating of 95.

    Despite Botti’s poor run of form recently, the 8/1 with BetVictor is a good price and he will be tough to beat if back to his best.

     

    3:35 Haydock – JUMBY at 11/4 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    How many times can a horse who finished second-last in a 12-runner race impress you?

    The answer to that question is not many. However, that did occur in the Lockinge and because of that, amongst other reasons, I will be backing JUMBY at 11/4 with William Hill in the John Of Gaunt Stakes.

    Looking at the Lockinge alone where the five-lowest drawn horses finished 8th, 10th, 11th, and 12th, the New Bay entire (drawn four) was running a great race for seven furlongs of the Group 1 contest before fading late in which was his second-ever race at a mile.

    Therefore, the return to seven furlongs this weekend will suit well having won three times at the trip, all on quick ground.

    Furthermore, in his season-opener at Newmarket, he missed the break catastrophically and stayed on well over six furlongs when beaten by three lengths.

    Saturday’s feature at Haydock is the weakest field he would have faced since his third in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket eight runs ago and with race fitness and conditions on his side, Eve Johnson Houghton’s stable star has a great chance to start his season off well.

  • 16/1 Royal Ascot Tip – Ante-post analysis

    16/1 Royal Ascot Tip – Ante-post analysis

    Last week at Epsom was a surreal experience. The moments before, during, and after were ones filled with nerves, not because of the horses I had backed, but of whether we would have a ‘normal’ Derby.

    Despite one small bit of trouble, we were and I think we all let out a big sigh of relief.

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    This week felt like horse racing clawed one point back against the backlash thrown our way and hopefully, this can continue on to the premier Flat meeting of the year in Royal Ascot.

    Speaking of the five-day Royal meeting, with this weekend’s action unlikely to be a vintage crop, I’ve decided to provide one fancy for Ascot which starts in just under two weeks as well as one EW selection for Saturday.

    Thanks to two good seconds from last week’s Ante-post Analysis piece, let’s roll on to the fancies.

     

    In Aidan we trust

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    Both Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are in some serious form at the moment and it’s great to see.

    The master trainer is operating at a 31% strike rate and his stable jockey is a shade better at 38% following their lethal partnership in the Derby on Saturday.

    Looking ahead to Royal Ascot, Ballydoyle has a plethora of Royal Ascot entries with Luxembourg, The Antarctic, and Little Big Bear the standouts.

    However, it’s an improving three-year-old that I am keen to side with as the 16/1 about BERTINELLI for the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes has grabbed my attention.

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    Firstly, just looking at the race, there are potentially seven horses ahead of O’Brien’s Jusitfy colt that are unlikely to turn up, suggesting that the double-figure price is good value.

    Secondly, it was his Newbury victory in the London Gold Cup that caused me to become a fan of his as the way he stayed on over 10 furlongs, a distance that probably isn’t ideal, was very taking and O’Brien was pleasantly surprised post-race.

    If this chestnut colt can continue to improve, something that should occur, I have high hopes for a big run at Royal Ascot.

     

    In-form Frankie

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    Frankie Dettori’s farewell tour had a successful leg of the journey at Epsom thanks to a glorious treble on the Downs.

    He will hop into the saddle three times this week; once at Kempton tonight and twice at Haydock on Saturday and it’s his ride onboard EQUILATERAL at 5/1 with William Hill in the opening contest that grabs me.

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    Assuming that George Boughey’s Perdika doesn’t run (she ran in France on Sunday) then Charlie Hills’ eight-year-old is the second-best at the weights with just Prince Of Pillo ahead of him.

    Following a good return to form last time out when ridden by Dettori in the Group 2 Temple Stakes, his fifth in last season’s Group 1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot is some of the best form in the race.

    With quick ground on the horizon for Saturday at Haydock, a 5/1 EW play looks very reasonable.

  • 20/1 Epsom Derby Tip – The Top Three

    20/1 Epsom Derby Tip – The Top Three

    Since Monday, I have been waiting for Saturday and there is good reason for my constant smile. It’s Epsom Derby Weekend.

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    There is just something about the Derby that makes the inner horse racing purist come out in full. The track of Epsom, build-up, and theatrical setting on the Saturday of Derby weekend is incredible, and although this year could be marred by potential Animal Rising protests, I have been unable to hide my excitement.

    Before we dive into the three Saturday fancies, we should take a look back at last week.

    I’m not one to boom on Twitter and say that my weekend selections should be immortalised in gold, but last week was a pleasant sight.

    Dramatised, Little Big Bear, and Get Ahead all obliged while Zarzyni was unable to make the places.

    That puts the series at 16.75 points in profit on the P&L after three weeks which is, above all else, a good start.

    So, with Epsom Derby Day on the horizon, an admittedly tougher week for betting than last Saturday, let’s dive in.

     

    1:30 Epsom – WAIPIRO at 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    This year’s Betfred Derby has kept me tossing and turning at night weighing up all the contenders.

    Now without mentioning too many horses and sitting on the fence, THE FOXES is a mad price at 14/1 considering he beat two of these at York and is related to some top-class stayers, ARREST was superb at Chester though is skinny enough at 9/2, and MILITARY ORDER is a horse that I seriously rate (and beat my selection last time out at Lingfield).

    However, I’m chancing WAIPIRO at 20/1 to continue his fast progression and hit the frame for Ed Walker.

    Tom Marquand gets the ride, the jockey who won on him at Newmarket, and he looks to have some interesting attributes.

    Firstly, Hong Kong-based WAIKUKU is his half-brother who famously beat Golden Sixty in January 2022 at Sha Tin when he was 145/10 and the favourite was 1/100.

    That suggests that his pedigree is worth a fair bit and if you analyse his second in the Lingfield Derby Trial, he shaped like a horse who has a good turn of foot, a skill that is handy for Epsom.

    With Charlie Appleby slightly out-of-form (3/22), a reverse in placings with Military Order isn’t out of the question and at 20/1, I’m happy to take the chance.

     

    2:10 Epsom – PROSPEROUS VOYAGE at 7/4 with BetVictor – 3pt WIN

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    Has anyone told you that Frankie Dettori is retiring at the end of the year?

    He is certainly riding like that is the case following his Group 1 double on Oaks Day thanks to Soul Sister and Emily Upjohn and by the time the Princess Elizabeth Stakes rolls around, we could be talking about Arrest as a Derby winner.

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    Hopefully, Lanfranco’s form continues as he rides PROSPEROUS VOYAGE in the third race tomorrow.

    The case for Ralph Beckett’s filly is obvious with a return to a mile on fast ground at a speedy track all set to be in her favour.

    Furthermore, by Zoffany with Mizzen Mast as the damsire, she should continue to be a great filly as a four-year-old after her Group 1-winning season last year.

    Tomorrow is her first run back on quick ground since her victory over Insprial in the Falmouth Stakes, she is my best bet of the week at 7/4 with BetVictor.

     

    3:20 Epsom – SILVER SWORD at 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    And finally, I’m doubling down on my Ante-post Analysis fancy from Wednesday as SILVER SWORD completes my line-up.

    As was the case when I put him up two weeks ago before being a non-runner at Newbury, I like his form off a mark of 82.

    His two-year-old form when fifth to Military Order at Newmarket at odds of 250/1 reads well (and could look even better after race two) and although he refused to race on his first two appearances on track, he was well-backed on debut which could suggest connections rate his ability.

    Furthermore, his second at Lingfield two starts ago shows he has a good turn of foot at a sharp track with the undulation before the home turn.

    He shouldn’t have any issues with the quicker surface (the dam side of his pedigree has plenty of good ground form) and hopefully, Dylan Cunha’s three-year-old can end Epsom Derby Day with a flourish.

  • Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    The endless weeks of build-up have drawn to a close as it is the week of the Epsom Derby.

    The two-day event around the undulations of the Surrey-based track is just a few days away and we at Bestofbets.com can’t wait.

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    For me, the last few weeks of the Ante-post Analysis series have seen some good success; THE FOXES winning the Dante and CAIRO placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas are the main highlights.

    And as for last week’s The Top Three column, well, we will be discussing that on Friday.

    I won’t get too ahead of myself as you have to take the peaks and troughs with a good degree of level-headedness in this game, so I’m sure I’ll come crashing back down to Earth sooner than I would like.

    Hopefully, it is not this week as I have a few early fancies for the Epsom Derby weekend.

     

    Keen on the Queen

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    The Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday looks to be a cracking contest at the time of writing with 10 entered for the £100,000 race.

    Although another one of my cliff horses, Prosperous Voyage, is at the head of the market, my head has been turned by a different four-year-old filly.

    QUEEN AMINATU shaped like a filly going placed last time out on the all-weather as she stayed on behind an on-song Sacred over seven furlongs at Lingfield.

    That form, in my eyes, is worth a good deal in a race like this as she was three-wide around the bend having finished third to Sandrine, a Group 2 winner, and Sacred, a horse who has all the attributes of a Group 1 filly when she is 100%.

    Furthermore, on her only start at a mile, she blitzed her competition at Lingfield, a race that included Oscula, a three-time Group 3 winner.

    Although most of her form is on the all-weather, her second on good ground over a mile at Haydock last season gives me hope that she will handle conditions on Saturday.

    If she can continue her progression, it will take a good one to beat her and the 8/1 available with BetVictor is a good price.

     

    One better than Silver

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    It’s almost like I’m living in a world of deja-vu as my next fancy was put up here two weeks ago before being declared a non-runner.

    Alas, having heard that this has always been the target, I’m willing to go back in on SILVER SWORD at 12/1.

    His case is obvious on one piece of form alone as his fifth to Military Order three starts ago reads extremely well, something that could see another boost if Godolphin’s Derby hope obliges earlier on the card.

    Following that run, a good second to Empress Wu and a facile victory at Southwell has only bolstered his claims.

    Now returning to 1m2f, something that should suit on pedigree as his dam (Aurora Grey) won three times over two miles, he could make light work of his official rating of 82.

    It is a competitive field and he does need one horse to come out to run, but hopefully that occurs and he can light up the Downs.

     

    Bring down the House

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    And finally, in a showering of repetition, my final ante-post play of Derby Weekend is a horse whom I put up at York two weeks ago.

    He finished fifth on seasonal reappearance at the Dante meeting, something I hope puts him spot on for the Dash on Saturday.

    That’s right, I’m sticking with CLARENDON HOUSE at 7/1 with William Hill.

    Despite running a career-best according to RPRs, the five-year-old was dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his last run.

    For a horse who travelled like the winner for three furlongs, received three reminders from Daniel Muscutt, and just emptied on his first start for 240 days, the run at York was very pleasing.

    On pure numbers, his second at Beverley two starts ago when eight pounds wrong at the weights with Acklam Express (3rd) was great and the second to Raasel last season, a horse who would go on to improve 15 pounds, when giving five pounds away shines brightly.

    Now rated 100, just one pound higher than his last winning mark, the test of Epsom should suit, and he is my fancy for the Dash on Epsom Derby weekend.

  • 14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    It’s Irish Guineas weekend and I’m looking forward to the next few days, not just for the action at the Curragh, but some great races from Haydock and York have perked my interest.

    But first, let’s take a look back at last week’s The Top Three article.

    Hands up, I got My Prospero wrong. The return to a mile wasn’t his gig, unfortunately, and the way he stayed on to the line having looked a lost cause at the two-furlong pole suggested to me that he will be tough to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    https://twitter.com/simonmilham/status/1659962615441833985

    And as for Loyal Touch, my sole representative in the London Gold Cup after Silver Sword was declared a non-runner, he finished just three lengths off the winner, who looks like a very good horse, in ninth; we didn’t get paid out on the day, but I’ll be keen to keep with him on his next start.

    The two losses put us at a small loss heading into week three on the P&L, but it is early stages and we are down 0.375 to a one-pound level stake.

    Anyway, let’s dive into Irish Guineas weekend with four horses to shout about.

    3:15 Haydock (today) – GET AHEAD at 15/8 with BetUK – 3pt win

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    Kicking off Irish Guineas weekend, I’m with a horse who I have mentioned for Bestofbets.com before and I’m retaining the faith, as well as slightly cheating by putting up a horse for Friday rather than Saturday, but she is my best bet of the weekend so it’s only right to be on this list.

    GET AHEAD was the NAP for me at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes and having been put up at double-figure odds before shortening to 7/1, the four-year-old went off at 10/1 due to the late rain that dampened her chances.

    Still, only being beaten four lengths by Vadream is not a bad result.

    Fast forward to today and she is set to make a step up in trip to six furlongs and run on the good to firm ground of Haydock, something that is music to my ears.

    I won’t go over her case again in the same detail as I did before, though you can click here to read the explanation from last time out, but it looks like conditions seem to be in her favour today and that step up in trip should suit well on pedigree (she is a half-sister to the Guineas winner Chaldean).

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    She has also shaped like a horse who wouldn’t mind the test of six furlongs son at 7/4, Get Ahead is the best bet of the weekend for me.

    2:40 York (Saturday) – ZARZYNI at 14/1 with BetVictor – 0.5pt EW

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    If Get Ahead makes us proud today, this could have a link to the chances of ZARZYNI in the valuable five-furlong handicap at York tomorrow as Silky Wilkie, the four-year who was ahead of Get Ahead at Newmarket, beat Zarzyni on his last start. That is collateral form, admittedly, but it still counts for something.

    Unfortunately for myself, and others who have had enough of me talking about horse racing, this David & Nicola Barron-trained six-year-old is a cliff horse of mine, however, I think today could be the day to catch him.

    Examining his last run on good to soft, a going description he maybe isn’t the most effective on, he had a horrid run through from the rear of the field and once it opened up, Silky Wilkie was too far gone and Ben Curtis was able to guide him home to finish a staying-on fifth.

    The handicapper kindly dropped him one pound for the run and he rocks up to York on Saturday with an official rating of 96, three pounds below his last winning mark.

    Therefore, with a run under his belt and race fitness hopefully at 100%, the 14/1 for Zarzyni is attractive and is worth the each-way bet at York.

    3:00 Haydock (Saturday) – Little Big Bear at 7/4 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Little Big Bear is the joint-shortest-priced horse I will be backing this weekend and again, he is another whom I have mentioned in a Bestofbets.com article, however, that time it was for the Guineas and tomorrow, he returns to a former-winning distance of six furlongs.

    The run at Newmarket was too bad to be true; he was keen from the start, had to deal with soft ground (which is still a small unknown), was trying a mile for the first time, and he was struck into, something that resulted in him being lame after the race. Pick and choose which excuse you want to use for the Guineas because he does have them, and they are real excuses.

    I’ve seen a few people wonder if the son of No Nay Never has trained on from his superstar two-year-old season, and I see no reason to suggest why he wouldn’t have.

    His dam, Adventure Seeker, only raced as a three-year-old, as did his half-brother American Graffiti, and she won a Listed event in France on her penultimate start.

    Of course, his sire was unbeaten as a juvenile before losing on his first start at three, but he still won the Group 3 Woodford in Keeneland before finishing second in a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, a run that was his career-best performance on RPRs.

    Aidan O’Brien’s European champion two-year-old has already beaten Bradsell, who reappears tomorrow in the Sandy Lane, and there aren’t many others in the contest that would worry me, so I’m hoping that ‘The Bear’ can put in a performance to savour at Haydock tomorrow for the Irish on their Guineas weekend.

    3:30 Haydock (Saturday) – Dramatised at 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Remember when we all thought Dramatised was a world-beater after her Royal Ascot win in the Queen Mary?

    Although the form may not be the strongest now, the head-to-head record between Dramatised and The Platinum Queen reads 2-0 in favour of the Karl Burke runner having also beaten tomorrow’s favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Both times, The Platinum Queen was running off the same weight as the Showcasing filly and both times she was well beaten, so with the now Roger Varian-trained three-year-old set to give five pounds away, I think there is plenty of reason to take her on with Dramatised and hope that the scoreline lengthens by the time Saturday is finished.

    Of course, there are 12 other runners for Dramatised to try and beat, but similarly, they are having to give weight away to a horse that is officially the joint-third highest-rated horse in the contest and I think the angle that she is coming into the race fresh and on the quick ground should suit very well.

    If you can get 5/1 anywhere, the each-way play doesn’t look too bad at all, but I will be siding with the 9/2 available with Betvictor for Dramatised in the Group 2 Temple Stakes as a win bet.

    P&L: -0.375 (after two weeks)