Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • King George VI Day Best Bets – The Top Three

    King George VI Day Best Bets – The Top Three

     

    The last few weeks for The Top Three column have been frustrating.

    Losses for Tower Of London and Rosscarbery were tough pills to swallow and last week’s NAP, Lezoo, was a non-runner on account of the ground.

    This weekend, if you read Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, you could be sitting on one nice slip ahead of Saturday’s Valiant Stakes (she will be one of the bets included below) and if you backed Simca Mille for the King George before he was taken out of the race by connections, then I do feel for you.

    Personally, when looking through Simca Mille’s form and pedigree, I had him down as a ground versatile horse who had performed a career-best effort on Good to Soft.

    Of course, connections know the horse best and he won on Good ground last time out, but his scratching from Ascot’s feature race came as a surprise.

    Anyway, with one dart fired incorrectly, let’s plough on into this week’s The Top Three.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Random Harvest @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Starting with the aforementioned Group 3 Valiant Stakes, Random Harvest looks like a standout bet at 10/3 with William Hill.

    At an ante-post stage on Wednesday, Ed Walker’s five-year-old was 8/1 in a field where Prosperous Voyage was still in; now more than half the price, I’m still keen to keep her on the side.

    Firstly, Roger Varian’s Ameynah is the money horse of the race (10/3 from 9/2), however, having her first run for 454 days on an unproven going description would put me off, especially due to the fact her dam, Tazffin, won on Good twice and placed in a Listed event on Good to Firm.

    In fairness, Random Harvest isn’t the biggest mudlark in the world as her best run to date came in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge on Good and she was a promising second in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Good to Firm before that.

    However, her last victory came on Soft over in Italy, so she could just be a ground versatile type, and hopefully, if she can deal with the conditions, she will come out on top.

     

    3:00 Ascot – Baradar @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Another horse mentioned in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis was Baradar in the International Stakes at 3:00pm.

    The George Boughey-trained five-year-old loves Soft ground, as shown by his third in the Lincoln when getting to the front too soon, as well as his victory on Heavy when beating the race’s favourite, Biggles, in November.

    Furthermore, a look at her pedigree shows that his dam, Go Lovely Rose, was third on Heavy and second on Soft, so this half-brother to Roseman, the runner-up in the 2020 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, should love every bit of give in Ascot’s going.

    Also, on his second-last run at Ascot in the Victoria Cup, the Muhaarar gelding dwelt out of the stalls, shifted across the track to the nearside rail, and made up plenty of ground when beaten by five lengths; Perotto, who won two starts later, finished one place behind and Spycatcher, a Group 3 winner in France after, completed the race in fourth.

    Off a lenient mark of 96, if everything falls into place, Kevin Stott could be on for an Amo Racing double depending on King Of Steel’s performance in the King George.

     

    3:15 Ascot – My Prospero @ 6/5 with BoyleSports – 5pt Win

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    Finally, as shown by my five-point outlay, my NAP of July is over at York with My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.

    Last year, a William Haggas and Tom Marquand horse forced me to tears as Dubai Honour lost at odds-on to Sir Busker, so this time around, hopefully, there isn’t a repeat.

    The Iffraaj colt was comfortably Haggas’ second-best horse in the yard last year behind the incredible Baaeed, however, he has yet to get off the mark this season in two attempts.

    That wouldn’t worry me too much as the races he has lost in included a Lockinge Stakes over the wrong distance and a hot renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes where he drifted before the off and stayed on at the finish.

    In a quieter Group 2 race, the four-year-old would have to seriously disappoint in order not to win and, like I said on the Only Fools Love Horses preview on Wednesday, this could be a ‘penalty kick’.

    I’ve jinxed it, haven’t I?

  • King George VI Stakes – Ante-post analysis

    King George VI Stakes – Ante-post analysis

     

    Do you remember Christmas time as a kid?

    The endless build-up for weeks and weeks just so you can wake up bright and early in anticipation of an amazing day.

    Right now, amongst endless train journeys to and from London, there is only one race I can think about and that is this weekend’s King George VI Stakes.

    15 of the best 1m4f horses from the UK and France clashing at Ascot; how can you not love that?

    Anyway, let’s stop talking because here are my ante-post picks for Saturday.

     

    Nothing Random about her chances

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    Beginning with 2:25 at Ascot, Random Harvest looks to be a few points too big at 8/1 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes.

    Taking a small scan at her opponents, Prosperous Voyage wouldn’t want soft ground, Grande Dame needs to put last time out behind her, and Ameynah hasn’t run since her third in the 2022 1000 Guineas.

    Then if you look back to Ed Walker’s five-year-old and read her form, her second at Royal Ascot to Rogue Millenium was very good and she gave three pounds away to Prosperous Voyage when second at Epsom in conditions that suited Ralph Beckett’s Group 1 winner better.

    Back with some dig underneath her feat, ground she won on in a Group 3 in France on soft ground, she should go close at 8/1.

     

    Purple Rain

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    The race proceeding the feature event, the International Stakes Handicap, looks like a competitive contest to work out, however, the purple colours of Baradar at 7/1 with William Hill shine very brightly.

    Working on the basis of good to soft/soft ground for the weekend if Ascot receives its intended rain on Thursday and Saturday, that will suit George Boughey’s five-year-old right down to the ground.

    Firstly, the Muhaarar gelding beat Biggles, the 6/1 ante-post favourite, on heavy going at Doncaster last November when receiving six pounds; on Saturday, he will receive seven pounds from Ralph Beckett’s six-year-old following his Newmarket win recently.

    Secondly, his third in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster in April can be upgraded as, in my opinion, jockey Kevin Stott got to the front too early, allowing Migration and Awaal to sneak by.

    Down to a workable mark of 96, I think this race looks almost perfect for Baradar, so hopefully, he can do the business.

     

    The French supercar

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    Looking at the 15-strong field, initially, I wanted to know what Simca Mille meant and after some research, the Simca 1000 (Mille) was an inexpensive, modern car that was sold in France between 1961 and 1978.

    Admittedly, this wasn’t a supercar as my subtitle suggests, but this Saturday, I’m hoping that Stephane Wattel’s version of the saloon vehicle can power to success in style at 33/1 with William Hill in the King George VI Stakes.

    Like Baradar, the Tamayuz four-year-old will relish any rain that comes down based on his second in the Group 1 Prix Ganay in April and his previous win in the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt.

    Furthermore, his victory last year in the Group 2 Prix Niel on soft ground over 12 furlongs when seemingly green as grass after hitting the front early is promising in a field like this as not many have proven themselves – or had the chance to prove themselves – at 1m4f in worsening conditions.

    Are there classy animals in the race? Yes. Will it be tough to give Auguste Rodin nine pounds? Yes. However, these pieces are all about discovering ante-post value, and from my point of view, he is exactly that.

  • 14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    After the onslaught of Royal Ascot, the Irish Derby, and the Newmarket July Festival, this weekend looks like a comparatively calm few days.

    That being said, the Group 1 Irish Oaks is still a race to look forward to, and yet, this week’s The Top Three features three horses away from the feature event.

    Before we dive into those picks, here’s a quick look at the current P&L.

    Despite the near miss of Tower Of London and the win for Swingalong last week, a nine-point loss on Saturday has put us in the red by 8.9 points.

    With a big week needed, here is a look at my fancies from the Curragh, Newbury, and Market Rasen.

    3:00 Newbury – Lezoo @ 5/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    In an instance of deja vu from Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, LEZOO at 5/1 with William Hill is my big hope for the weekend.

    For my full reasoning on her chances, please click on the link to this week’s recent piece, but now with just one day to go, we can analyse how conditions may suit her.

    My worry on Wednesday was the idea of soft conditions, but with a lack of rain over the last 48 hours and just a few showers expected tomorrow, the surface at Newbury should be good racing ground.

    That will only benefit Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old filly and may even inconvenience a few others in the race.

    The closer I get to Saturday, the more I find it hard not to see her as the winner – though of her competitors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shartash outrun his odds at 14/1 – and hopefully, she can kick off the weekend positively.

    3:15 Market Rasen – Killer Clown @ 11/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    With the five places on offer at BetVictor for this year’s Summer Plate at Market Rasen, KILLER CLOWN at 11/1 looks like a good bet.

    Unlike Newbury, rain will hit the Lincolnshire track overnight and they could pick up another downpour on raceday tomorrow, so the ground might creep into some description of soft.

    Plenty of the 16 runners in the Summer Plate will want good, summer ground, however, any mention of soft in the going description should play into the hands of Emma Lavelle’s nine-year-old.

    Officially rated 138, two pounds below his last winning mark of March 2022, the lightly-raced Getaway gelding had a wind surgery before his staying-on third at Uttoxeter last time out.

    The age-old stereotype of ‘second run after a wind op’ will be on his side tomorrow and, now he is seemingly well-handicapped, I think he should be feared in the 3:15 at Market Rasen and he is my main Summer Plate bet.

    4:20 Curragh – Rosscarbery @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, over the water at the Curragh, the race directly after the Irish Oaks is the Group 2 International Curragh Cup and ROSSCARBERY will carry my money.

    The favourite in the race is Emily Dickinson, and although she is obviously a good horse, I’m struggling to work out why this is the case.

    Paddy Twomey’s mare by Sea The Stars has faced the Dubawi filly twice in 13 months and has had the beating of her every single time.

    The first of which was at Leopardstown in the Group 3 Stanerra Stakes where she gave 17 pounds away and beat her by a short head, and the second came in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where she finished fifth behind Emily Upjohn, half-a-length ahead of Emily Dickinson while giving six pounds away.

    That level of form reads well and although rain will hit the Curragh on Saturday, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old loves, Rosscarbery doesn’t mind the mud.

    Off level weights tomorrow and in receipt of weight from a few of the geldings in the race, my faith is with the second-favourite Rosscarbery under Billy Lee.

  • 14/1 Irish Oaks Weekend Pick – Ante-post Analysis

    I think it’s fair to say that we have two horses to really look forward to following the Newmarket July Festival.

    With City Of Troy and Shaquille, Flat racing eagerly awaits both of their next moves because right now, there are two promising stars in two different divisions at two different ages. What a brilliant sight.

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    Therefore, to walk out of last week with this marks a good time for horse racing, irrespective of backing winners or losers.

    Now, with that covered, the Irish Oaks takes centre stage this weekend from the Curragh, but away from there, it is two horses running in the UK that have grabbed my attention for this week’s ante-post analysis.

     

    Return of Lanfranco

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    Frankie Dettori is set to leave the sidelines this weekend as horse racing’s most famous jockey is back in the saddle at Newbury Racecourse, and at 4/1 with William Hill, LEZOO is an interesting betting angle into the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at 3:00.

    Firstly, she is the second-highest rated horse in the race with just Garrus one pound ahead of her, however, she receives 11 pounds from Charlie Hills’ runner and Tiber Flow, eight pounds from Curragh winner Commanche Falls, and six pounds from fellow three-year-old Cold Case.

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    That puts her clear at the weights by a good margin, partly due to being a three-year-old filly as well as being without the hindrance of a penalty in the race, something that is different for Cold Case as he shoulders a three-pound penalty for winning a Group 3 in May.

    Furthermore, a look back at her two-year-old form, specifically that Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes where she beat Mawj, Meditate, and Swingalong, reads extremely well in this Group 3 setting who are yet to break it onto the Group 1 stage.

    Hopefully, this Zoustar filly can give the returning Dettori a win this weekend in what is her easiest test of the last 12 months.

     

    Long live summer jumping

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    This weekend marks one of the feature events of the summer jump racing calendar, Market Rasen’s Summer Plate Day.

    Despite the competitiveness of the feature event, it is the race directly before that has piqued my interest, however, as LUTTRELL LAD at 16/1 with BetVictor is an interesting runner in the two-mile handicap hurdle.

    Trained by Tom Lacey and ridden by stable jockey Stan Sheppard, the seven-year-old’s first run of this year occurred at Kelso in March before his defeat by only seven lengths in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 133.

    Fast-forward to this weekend and following three runs since jump racing’s Olympics, his rating is officially 123, a full 10 pounds below his mark in March.

    That is a big swing in the weights for a horse who was finishing close to the likes of Pied Piper, Filey Bay, Sharjah, Ballyadam, and Highway One O Two.

    Furthermore, this weekend’s conditions could suit him better than others in the field as the ground could be riding on the softer side of good, something he has previous form with.

    At 16/1, I’d be willing to take a chance that he can still run to his County Hurdle ability off a very lenient mark.

  • July Festival Day 3 – The Top Three

    July Festival Day 3 – The Top Three

     

    Well, we are back in profit.

    As we head into July Festival Day 3, the P&L is at +1.275 points; admittedly, that isn’t a groundbreaking number, but seeing that number in the green after a small drop into the red is a pleasing sight.

    With rain affecting courses up and down the country, today could be a tough card, but here are my three fancies for July Festival Day 3.

     

    2:20 Ascot – Aldarry @ 9/4 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    Something that made Swingalong the NAP of yesterday at Newmarket was the fact I didn’t think the race was that strong behind the favourite.

    And although it’s not to the same level as yesterday, this year’s Summer Mile Stakes at Ascot isn’t a vintage renewal, making ALDAARY a good bet in the race.

    All season, connections have been entering and not declaring their five-year-old by Territories because the ground was too quick, so when they did eventually send him to the Criterion Stakes last time out on good ground, I was slightly surprised.

    On his first run for nearly 13 months on unsuitable ground at a sharp trip, he ran a great race before fading late on.

    Now with conditions in his favour and race fitness on his side, it’s understandable why the market has him as the well-backed favourite.

    On his three runs before his latest start, the 116-rated gelding ran to 119, 119, and 117 on RPRs alongside his good times on the clock in soft conditions.

    With a few in here needing to answer questions about soft ground and ability, Aldaary could be a Group 1 horse in time, and if he is, he should win today.

     

    3:10 York – Millebosc @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The in-form William Haggas stable will hopefully have a good day today based on two of my selections as in the John Smith’s Cup, Millebosc is my big fancy on his second start for the Newmarket-based operation.

    The five-year-old by Le Havre made his introduced to UK racing at the end of last season as he finished a staying-on fifth on the all-weather at Lingfield.

    Before that, he raced in France for Stephanie Nigge and had some classy three-year-old form thanks to his third to St Mark’s Basilica, a six-time Group 1 winner for Aidan O’Brien, in a race that also had Sealiway, an Ascot Champion Stakes successor, in second.

    The majority of his French form came on softer ground, something he will get at York, and Haggas has fired in three of the last 12 winners in this race, so for him to be his sole representative could be a tip in itself.

    Therefore, at 10/1 off a mark of 97, he looks well-handicapped on old form.

     

    4:00 Newmarket – Streets of Gold @ 7/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt EW

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    Although the Bunbury Cup is notoriously hard to work out, I recently said on the Only Fools Love Horses podcast that Streets of Gold was my NAP of the meeting.

    Having been 14/1 at one point, the three-year-old by Havana Gold is still a decent price at 8/1 and with the ground set to be riding on the easier side of good to soft, he is ground versatile based on his win on soft at the Curragh last September.

    Officially, Eve Johnson Houghton’s contender, who was unbeaten as a two-year-old in five starts, is the second-highest-rated horse in the field off a mark of 105.

    However, with an eight-pound weight-for-age allowance in his favour, the relatively experienced colt will carry just nine stone on his back.

    As well as that, due to a close third-place finish in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, he is officially four pounds well in as his handicap mark is actually 109, but because the Bunbury Cup is an early-closing race, he still gets to run off his previous rating of 105.

    Hopefully, Streets Of Gold’s ground versatility will put him in good shape to be challenging in one of the major handicaps of the day on July Festival Day 3.

  • July Festival Day 2 – The Top Three

    July Festival Day 2 – The Top Three

     

    For the first time in 12 weeks, after 72 points staked (and thanks to the whopping 25.80 points loss of Royal Ascot) the P&L has dropped into the minuses at -0.65 after yesterday’s two losses.

    Although Tower Of London’s loss will continue to haunt me all week, we shall kick on into day two on what looks like a competitive day all around.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – LOCAL DYNASTY @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt WIN

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    Yesterday, the opening race didn’t go the way I planned with Tower Of London finishing second; today, I hope my fortune can change with Local Dynasty.

    Although I’m taking a chance on the apparent Godolphin second-string, something that is a difficult game at times, I am a bigger fan of this three-year-old by Dubawi over his stablemate Tagabawa, the 7/2 favourite.

    Last time out, Local Dynasty ran in the Golden Gates Stakes and finished a good third following a rear-of-the-field ride, forcing him to make up at least six lengths after the bend.

    Furthermore, his run in the Dee Stakes at Chester two starts ago was another pleasing contest on soft ground.

    With the late San Antonio and Donnacha O’Brien’s Alder ahead of him, that form looks strong and it shows he ground versatile if the rain does hit today.

    Hopefully, he is the classic ‘Group horse in a handicap’ as he will need to be off a mark of 101, but that feat should be accomplishable and he is my opening bet for the second day of the July Cup meeting.

     

    2:40 York – SWINGALONG @ 15/8 with BetVictor – 3pt WIN

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    Coverage on ITV Racing today also comes from York alongside HQ and in their feature race of the day, the Group 3 Summer Stakes, the favourite, Swingalong, is the NAP.

    Firstly, on pure numbers, Karl Burke’s contender is the second-highest rated in the race while also receiving a three-year-old and fillies allowance, putting her best at the weights by two pounds to the second-favourite, Mammas Girl.

    That is a good start to her claim, and her case gets even stronger based on her form thanks to her big-odds third in the Commonwealth Cup last time out, second to Remarquee three starts ago, and fourth in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at the end of last season.

    The return to six furlongs at Royal Ascot has seemingly brought this Showcasing filly back to her best and with this being one of her easiest assignments of the last 11 months, hopefully, she can oblige in due fashion.

     

    3:35 Newmarket – REMARQUEE @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    And finally, after much consideration of this selection, Remarquee is the final player in the team for the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.

    There is a lot of impending rain about to hit Newmarket, something that made me take out my pencilled fancy of Persuasion in the penultimate race, but now she is out, Ralph Beckett’s filly is her replacement.

    The Kingman three-year-old receives a nine-pound weight allowance from the favourite, Via Sistina, which does put her best at the weights on official ratings.

    That mark of 111 is thanks to her remarkable second in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot where she was stopped in her tracks one furlong from home, but still managed to rally down the outside to only be beaten by one length to Tahiyra.

    The favourite, seeking her second Group 1 in less than two weeks, has a question to answer about her suitability dropping back down to a mile whereas Remarquee should have no problems with the trip or any potential soft ground.

    Hopefully, a three-year-old can win this race for the second time in a row under a double-seeking Rob Hornby after his memorable victory 12 months ago on Prosperous Voyage.

  • July Festival Day 1 – The Top Three

    July Festival Day 1 – The Top Three

     

    Following a week’s absence, The Top Three is back to take a look at the July Festival Meeting live on ITV Racing.

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    In the lead-up to this year’s highlight meeting at the Newmarket July course, clerk of the course, Michael Prosser, has irrigated 12mm onto the track with some showers expected to hit over the next 24 hours, something that makes betting difficult because there is an unknown about how the course will ride until that first race is done.

    Anyway, hopefully, the ground remains good for my two fancies on day 1 in Newmarket.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – TOWER OF LONDON @ 15/8 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    The opening race of the meeting is the Bahrain Trophy Stakes and the favourite, Tower of London, is a horse I like a lot.

    By the super-sire Galileo out of Dialafara, making him a full-brother to the St Leger winner Capri and Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle victor Brazil, this Aidan O’Brien-trained three-year-old was impressive in the Ulster Derby last time out.

     

    He won that 1m5f contest off a mark of 99, and even with Killian Hennessy claiming seven pounds off his back he still ran to a good number on RPR ratings so on that alone, he has to have a great chance.

    His biggest danger by far is Saint George based on that second to Gregory in the Queen’s Vase, however, I don’t know how strong the form is yet and he was a bit weak in the finish at Royal Ascot.

    Taking this all in, the 2/1 is a fair price for Tower Of London.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – REDEMPTION TIME @ 22/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Just over an hour later, the bet365 Handicap offers plenty of value in the 17-strong field on day 1 of the July Cup meeting.

    And at 22/1 with BetVictor, Redemption Time is the horse I am a fan of at the prices.

    Although it is a competitive affair, a look back at his last run shows that he was staying on at the finish behind a few horses that reappear again, and he remains off a workable mark of 87 tomorrow.

    Furthermore, on his two-year-old form, that mark in the mid-80s looks lenient considering he got to within two lengths of the 108-rated Holguin on debut and finished third to Noble Style, with Guineas runner-up Royal Scotsman three-quarters of a length behind, at Ascot on his second start.

    That form reads extremely well and hopefully, he can be competitive at big odds for Clive Cox and Ray Dawson.

  • Irish Derby Weekend Best Bets – The Top Three

    Irish Derby Weekend Best Bets – The Top Three

    It’s Irish Derby Weekend and our The Top Three column had a good time of things in the English equivalent a few weeks ago.

    Although Waipiro didn’t handle the test of the Derby at Epsom, victory for Prosperous Voyage in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and a placed effort for Silver Sword in the Lester Piggott Handicap made it a profitable day.

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    After a tough Royal Ascot, the P&L is still positive at +2.85 points and with a good weekend of racing ahead, here are my three best fancies.

     

    12:20 Newcastle – BATAL DUBAI @ 13/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    Racing starts early at 12:20 this week on ITV Racing and it’s Harry and Roger Charlton’s BATAL DUBAI that caught my attention in the opener.

    The Profitable three-year-old colt has only raced five times so far, winning three of them, and has former champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle for the first time.

    Although disappointing on his last two runs, one took place on heavy ground at Newbury and the over saw him miss the break at Windsor.

    Furthermore, the £30,000 handicap contest gives three-year-olds a six-pound allowance and both he and Animate will benefit from it.

    With race fitness on his side and, in my books, still relatively unexposed at six furlongs on quick ground, the 13/2 with BoyleSports is attractive for Batal Dubai.

     

    12:55 Newcastle – MOUNT ATHOS @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    At an ante-post stage, El Caballo at 4/1 was my main interest in the Chipchase Stakes, as discussed on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast.

    However, as mentioned in my Ante-post Analysis article on Wednesday, the best value in the race was MOUNT ETHOS at 8/1.

    Fast-forward two days and that has turned into a truthful statement as James Tate’s four-year-old is a best-priced 9/2 with William Hill for this weekend.

    My explanation behind his chance this weekend is included in the Ante-post Analysis article, which you can read to see why I like him as a 50/1 shot for the July Cup.

    Now that declarations are in for the Chipchase Stakes, I see that he could be the likely pace angle in the contest.

    Of the dead-eight runners, the Dark Angel colt won both of his starts at Kempton when racing from the front and only Brad The Brief and Prince Of Pillo look like horses who could lead, but most of their success has come from sitting in-behind leaders.

    Therefore, if Mount Athos gets an easy lead from the front, he could be hard to peg back on his return to six furlongs under Neil Callan.

     

    3:25 Curragh – ABOVE THE CURVE @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 3pt Win

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    My final fancy comes in the first Group 1 of the weekend as I’ve turned to ABOVE THE CURVE in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh.

    Although she is the current favourite at 5/2, if she had opened up at 7/4, I wouldn’t have looked twice as she is the proven best horse in the race

    Although she is the only Group 1 winner in the race, won a Group 2 with ease last time out, and will be partnered by the best jockey in the world, Ryan Moore, she seems underestimated in the market.

    Admittedly, Via Sistina was very impressive at Newmarket last time out, however, I would like to see her do it again before trusting the performance especially due to the fact she will be racing on a much quicker surface.

    She does have good ground form, but it hasn’t been at this level and by Fastnet Rock, I’d have a concern on that side of things.

    Then at 5/1 is Never Ending Story, a horse Moore would have had the option to ride, but he is jumping on Joseph O’Brien’s contender rather than siding with the younger Dubawi filly for Joseph’s dad, Aidan.

    And although Above The Curve has performed best on soft ground, her pedigree of American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare suggests the better surface shouldn’t be an issue and at 5/2, she could be the class act of the race.

  • Irish Derby Weekend Picks – Ante-post Analysis

    Irish Derby Weekend Picks – Ante-post Analysis

     

    Well, Royal Ascot 2023 is over.

    Many, including this series, have come out the other side battered and bruised after some of the big-priced results and although some of you following from Twitter may have picked up Khaadem or Age Of Kings, these BestOfBets articles drew close to a blank.

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    Alas, this happens and it’s time to march on and look forward to Irish Derby Weekend.

    Although the feature race itself looks a point-and-shoot for Auguste Rodin, there are a few interesting ante-post angles on this side of the Irish Sea.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    Everyone loves a Chip

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    The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes (12:55 Newcastle) drew my attention initially and rather unusually, I want to talk about two horses in the same race.

    The first of which is EL CABALLO at 4/1 with BetVictor for Karl Burke and Clifford Lee.

    Heading into his run last time out in the John Of Gaunt Stakes, I wasn’t sure how much he liked good ground, however, his run through the race showed to me that he can be versatile on most surfaces.

    And although my fancy, Jumby, won the race, if he wasn’t sandwiched between Gorak and The Astrologist, he would have been much closer to the action and could have won the race.

     

    Coming into this a fresher horse than some of the Royal Ascot runners (Annaf, the ante-post favourite, and Prince Of Pillo), back to six furlongs should suit well with his good turn of foot and I like him for this race.

     

    A July Cup horse?

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    However, at double the price, I’ve also locked eyes on MOUNT ATHOS at 8/1 with BetVictor for James Tate and the in-form Neil Callan.

    He is a fit and fresh horse after two runs this season, most recently a second to Spycatcher on soft ground.

    By Dark Angel and out of an Iffraaj mare, he wouldn’t have bounced off the slower conditions and a return to an all-weather surface, something he is two from two on, will definitely benefit his chances.

    His final run of last season and first run of this season, both on an official going of standard to slow, showed up well on the clock to make all from the front, so much so that connections handed him a July Cup entry for next month.

     

    At 8/1 this weekend and a whopping 50/1 for the six-furlong Group 1 contest at Newmarket, both interest me for a horse who looks to have plenty of gears and with him still being relatively unexposed, I can’t drag myself away from an each-way bet on this four-year-old.

     

    Quick turnaround for ZOFFEE

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    Of the 48 still entered for the Northumberland Plate (2:05 Newcastle), 15 ran 16 or fewer days ago, a stat that includes my fancy, ZOFFEE at 7/1 with BetVictor.

    The race in question that Hugo Palmer’s seven-year-old ran in was the Ascot Stakes last Tuesday, a contest he finished a staying-on sixth in under Ben Curtis who is jocked up for the weekend.

     

    Last year’s Northumberland Vase winner sat in the rear of the field for the majority of his run last time out before coming eight-wide around the bend and running through the line.

    Although my cliff horse, Calling The Wind, finished four places ahead of him in that Ascot Stakes, Richard Hughes’ seven-year-old has no prior form in backing up from a quick turnaround, something Zoffee has done before.

    I feel that if he positioned himself more prominently at Royal Ascot, he might have placed, however, he didn’t and he now comes into Saturday in good form with something to prove.

    7/1 is short, but to me, his claims are obvious for a course and distance winner.

     

    Back with a favourite

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    If I like El Caballo over at Newcastle, there’s no way I can leave JUMBY alone at 4/1 with BoyleSports.

    As we know, Eve Johnson Houghton’s five-year-old beat El Caballo last time out at Haydock when a few things went wrong for him in running.

    Although he has a three-pound penalty, Charlie Bishop said he is deadly at this level over seven furlongs and with Aldaary a potential non-runner if it remains this quick, the 4/1 about Jumby looks a good price.

     

    For me, Aldaary hasn’t proven himself on quick ground, Pogo disappointed on his last four runs, culminating in a bad run at Ascot in the Queen Anne, and the rest need to step up to Jumby’s level.

    Although he has only had 21 days off the track, that break actually makes him one of the fresher horses in the field and I hope he can make it a quick double in the 1:50 at Newmarket.

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Yes, you would be correct in thinking about what is currently on your mind. ‘What state was Ash in when the Palace Of Hollyroodhouse Stakes finished?’ Well, after a day of four selections, one place and no winners, it was safe to say I wasn’t the happiest.

    But then again, you dust yourself off, pick yourself up, and roll into Royal Ascot Day 5.

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    Has this week been tough for people having a bet? Yes. Did I expect good success after Triple Time won the Queen Anne in what seems like a race that took place six months ago? Yes. But these things happen and this series hadn’t accumulated an ROI of 80% pre-Ascot for no reason.

    To keep you in touch with recent results, after Tuesday, the P&L was at +27.75 at an ROI of 73%. Now, after Friday, we are +12.85 at an ROI of 24%. That is tough reading, but we have three fancies to hang our hopes on, so let’s get started.

     

    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – Wellington @ 11/2 with William Hill – 2pt EW

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    Hong Kong is yet to have a runner at this year’s Royal Ascot, but today, WELLINGTON is holding their hopes and dreams.

    Trained by Richard Gibson, the six-year-old by All Too Hard is one of the world’s best sprinters, that is a fact, and he has been bumping heads with Lucky Sweynesse on multiple occasions over the last year, a horse who is the number one sprinter in the world.

    Wellington actually beat his fierce rival at Sha Tin in the Premier Bowl handicap last October when giving nine pounds away.

    Everything circulating on Twitter and social media suggests he has travelled over well and at 11/2, that is an incredible each-way price with William Hill, and I can’t wait to see this Hong Kong star at the legendary Ascot.

     

    Wokingham Stakes – Orazio @ 6/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    This horse. This is the one I can’t desert. All the chat about NAP of the week comes down to this.

    Any regular readers or viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast will know that ORAZIO for Charlie Hills has been my bet of Royal Ascot for a few weeks.

    This colt by Caravaggio bolted up over course and distance last time out following a decent win at Newmarket the month prior.

    Further before that, he missed all of 2022 and some of 2021 due to what seems like a setback and for a £215,000 purchase as a yearling, that would have been annoying, so to have him firing on all cylinders is promising to see.

    Off 102, I think the mark is still fair and if he is a Group horse in the making then a win today in the Wokingham, a difficult handicap at the best of times, should hopefully happen.

    The only thing that is a worry is the form of the yard at four winners from 33 runners, the reason why this is a win-only bet as he could either go very close or not fire at all.

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    I have hopes that we can see a nice performance tomorrow from stall 29, so good luck to William Buick and his connections.

     

    Golden Gates Handicap – Knockbrex @ 7/2 with BoyleSports – 3pt WIN

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    Although Orazio is one of my best bets of the week, KNOCKBREX has become a close second to my strength in the bet.

    His York performance thoroughly impressed me despite not winning as he made all under Andrea Ateni and forced his competitors off the bridle before being passed late on when victim to doing too much too soon.

    The form of that race has worked out nicely as well because the winner, Chesspiece, ran a good race behind Gregory in the Queen’s Vase and the second, Land Legend, was a big eyecatcher from the King George V Handicap.

    Speaking of Gregory, Charlie Johnston’s colt by Ulysses got to within two lengths of the highly-impressive John & Thady Gosden-trained horse at Haydock, a race that saw him pass horses rather than make all which shows the versatility of his running style.

    And even a look at his pedigree excites me as he is out of a Pivotal mare (an angle I love) with the dam a half-sister to the two-time Listed winner Answered and a full sister to Peripatetic, a recent winner of the Listed Tapster Stakes at Goodwood two weeks ago.

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    The cross of Ulysess out of a Pivotal mare is actually one that has produced the useful Holloway Boy, Gwan So, and Relentless Voyager in recent years, so off a mark of 90, I like the chances of Knockbrex in the Golden Gates Handicap.