14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

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After the onslaught of Royal Ascot, the Irish Derby, and the Newmarket July Festival, this weekend looks like a comparatively calm few days.

That being said, the Group 1 Irish Oaks is still a race to look forward to, and yet, this week’s The Top Three features three horses away from the feature event.

Before we dive into those picks, here’s a quick look at the current P&L.

Despite the near miss of Tower Of London and the win for Swingalong last week, a nine-point loss on Saturday has put us in the red by 8.9 points.

With a big week needed, here is a look at my fancies from the Curragh, Newbury, and Market Rasen.


3:00 Newbury – Lezoo @ 5/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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In an instance of deja vu from Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, LEZOO at 5/1 with William Hill is my big hope for the weekend.

For my full reasoning on her chances, please click on the link to this week’s recent piece, but now with just one day to go, we can analyse how conditions may suit her.

My worry on Wednesday was the idea of soft conditions, but with a lack of rain over the last 48 hours and just a few showers expected tomorrow, the surface at Newbury should be good racing ground.

That will only benefit Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old filly and may even inconvenience a few others in the race.

The closer I get to Saturday, the more I find it hard not to see her as the winner – though of her competitors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shartash outrun his odds at 14/1 – and hopefully, she can kick off the weekend positively.


3:15 Market Rasen – Killer Clown @ 11/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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With the five places on offer at BetVictor for this year’s Summer Plate at Market Rasen, KILLER CLOWN at 11/1 looks like a good bet.

Unlike Newbury, rain will hit the Lincolnshire track overnight and they could pick up another downpour on raceday tomorrow, so the ground might creep into some description of soft.

Plenty of the 16 runners in the Summer Plate will want good, summer ground, however, any mention of soft in the going description should play into the hands of Emma Lavelle’s nine-year-old.

Officially rated 138, two pounds below his last winning mark of March 2022, the lightly-raced Getaway gelding had a wind surgery before his staying-on third at Uttoxeter last time out.

The age-old stereotype of ‘second run after a wind op’ will be on his side tomorrow and, now he is seemingly well-handicapped, I think he should be feared in the 3:15 at Market Rasen and he is my main Summer Plate bet.


4:20 Curragh – Rosscarbery @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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Finally, over the water at the Curragh, the race directly after the Irish Oaks is the Group 2 International Curragh Cup and ROSSCARBERY will carry my money.

The favourite in the race is Emily Dickinson, and although she is obviously a good horse, I’m struggling to work out why this is the case.

Paddy Twomey’s mare by Sea The Stars has faced the Dubawi filly twice in 13 months and has had the beating of her every single time.

The first of which was at Leopardstown in the Group 3 Stanerra Stakes where she gave 17 pounds away and beat her by a short head, and the second came in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where she finished fifth behind Emily Upjohn, half-a-length ahead of Emily Dickinson while giving six pounds away.

That level of form reads well and although rain will hit the Curragh on Saturday, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old loves, Rosscarbery doesn’t mind the mud.

Off level weights tomorrow and in receipt of weight from a few of the geldings in the race, my faith is with the second-favourite Rosscarbery under Billy Lee.

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