Irish Derby Weekend: Best Group One And Handicap Picks
Welcome to our expanded race guide for Irish Derby Weekend, focusing on three informed fancies and practical betting context.
This content is for readers aged 18+ and encourages responsible gambling at all times.
It’s Irish Derby Weekend and our The Top Three column had a good time of things in the English equivalent a few weeks ago.
Although Waipiro didn’t handle the test of the Derby at Epsom, victory for Prosperous Voyage in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and a placed effort for Silver Sword in the Lester Piggott Handicap made it a profitable day.
After a tough Royal Ascot, the P&L is still positive at +2.85 points and with a good weekend of racing ahead, here are my three best fancies.
12:20 Newcastle – BATAL DUBAI @ 13/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW
Racing starts early at 12:20 this week on ITV Racing and it’s Harry and Roger Charlton’s BATAL DUBAI that caught my attention in the opener.
The Profitable three-year-old colt has only raced five times so far, winning three of them, and has former champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle for the first time.
Sprinter to follow – Batal Dubai is an easy winner for @CliffordleexLee and @RogerCharlton at @NewcastleRaces… pic.twitter.com/Kfs3Lt2hD6
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) September 2, 2022
Although disappointing on his last two runs, one took place on heavy ground at Newbury and the over saw him miss the break at Windsor.
Furthermore, the £30,000 handicap contest gives three-year-olds a six-pound allowance and both he and Animate will benefit from it.
With race fitness on his side and, in my books, still relatively unexposed at six furlongs on quick ground, the 13/2 with BoyleSports is attractive for Batal Dubai.
12:55 Newcastle – MOUNT ATHOS @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win
At an ante-post stage, El Caballo at 4/1 was my main interest in the Chipchase Stakes, as discussed on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast.
However, as mentioned in my Ante-post Analysis article on Wednesday, the best value in the race was MOUNT ETHOS at 8/1.
Fast-forward two days and that has turned into a truthful statement as James Tate’s four-year-old is a best-priced 9/2 with William Hill for this weekend.
Wow! 👀
Mount Athos picks up from where he left off after 161 days off track as the Dark Angel colt powers to a dominant victory in the 25% Boost On Darts Profits @unibet Handicap, picking up stylishly on the front end under @the_doyler for trainer James Tate 🏆 pic.twitter.com/jsLJBCxO7Q
— Kempton Park Racecourse (@kemptonparkrace) March 29, 2023
My explanation behind his chance this weekend is included in the Ante-post Analysis article, which you can read to see why I like him as a 50/1 shot for the July Cup.
Now that declarations are in for the Chipchase Stakes, I see that he could be the likely pace angle in the contest.
Of the dead-eight runners, the Dark Angel colt won both of his starts at Kempton when racing from the front and only Brad The Brief and Prince Of Pillo look like horses who could lead, but most of their success has come from sitting in-behind leaders.
Therefore, if Mount Athos gets an easy lead from the front, he could be hard to peg back on his return to six furlongs under Neil Callan.
3:25 Curragh – ABOVE THE CURVE @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 3pt Win
My final fancy comes in the first Group 1 of the weekend as I’ve turned to ABOVE THE CURVE in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh.
Although she is the current favourite at 5/2, if she had opened up at 7/4, I wouldn’t have looked twice as she is the proven best horse in the race
Although she is the only Group 1 winner in the race, won a Group 2 with ease last time out, and will be partnered by the best jockey in the world, Ryan Moore, she seems underestimated in the market.
Above The Curve wins the Group 2 Prix Corrida!
Victory at Saint-Cloud for @JosephOBrien2 and Maxime Guyon as Nashwa is only fourth… pic.twitter.com/55cOla0RHg
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 28, 2023
Admittedly, Via Sistina was very impressive at Newmarket last time out, however, I would like to see her do it again before trusting the performance especially due to the fact she will be racing on a much quicker surface.
She does have good ground form, but it hasn’t been at this level and by Fastnet Rock, I’d have a concern on that side of things.
VIA SISTINA bolts up in The G2 Dahlia Stakes @NewmarketRace under @JPSPENCER1980 – well done to Mrs R G Hillen pic.twitter.com/EQMYcMez5y
— George Boughey Racing (@gbougheyracing) May 7, 2023
Then at 5/1 is Never Ending Story, a horse Moore would have had the option to ride, but he is jumping on Joseph O’Brien’s contender rather than siding with the younger Dubawi filly for Joseph’s dad, Aidan.
And although Above The Curve has performed best on soft ground, her pedigree of American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare suggests the better surface shouldn’t be an issue and at 5/2, she could be the class act of the race.
How these three selections fit this weekend’s races
Below we expand on form, race dynamics and stake considerations for each selection to help you assess the merits of each tip.
This guidance is informational and does not promise returns; always bet responsibly and within your means.
Analysing Batal Dubai’s profile and race conditions
Batal Dubai is lightly raced with a clear two-turn sprint profile which suggests further improvement is possible over six furlongs.
The three-year-old allowance and a switch to a high-class jockey strengthen his chance on a quick surface if he reproduces best form.
How trip, draw and ground affect sprint handicaps
Sprints are often determined by early speed and ability to handle a fast break from the stalls, so draw and early pace are key variables.
Quick ground tends to favour exposed speed, while heavy going exposes stamina limitations and can conceal raw pace.
Mount Athos pace map and tactical advantage this week
Mount Athos showed front-running form at Kempton and could exploit a race lacking true leaders, which often yields a tactical edge.
If he secures an uncontested lead he can set a strong tempo and force others to chase, making his 5/1 quote attractive in that light.
Evaluating jockey bookings and trainer form cycles
Jockey selection and recent trainer performance cycles are informative signals rather than guarantees and should be weighed alongside form lines.
Neil Callan’s booking for Mount Athos suggests confidence and a clear tactical plan for a prominent ride on return to six furlongs.
Above The Curve: form, ground and Group One credentials
Above The Curve brings a Group 1 victory and a strong recent Group 2 win, which mark her as the obvious class horse in the Pretty Polly.
Concerns over ground suitability are balanced by a pedigree that handles top-class conditions, and the Ryan Moore booking is a significant endorsement.
Reading market moves and finding genuine betting value
Market shifts after declarations often reflect inside confidence; watching moves between opening and morning prices can reveal where value exists.
Value is not simply the biggest price but a rational overlay between perceived chance and the odds on offer; stay disciplined when comparing across bookmakers.
Money management and sensible stake planning for bettors
Sensible staking plans protect your bankroll and allow you to back multiple selections without risking financial pressure.
Divide stakes by confidence level and avoid chasing losses; treat tips as informed opinion rather than a promise of profit.
Bankroll approaches for casual and regular punters
Casual punters might limit exposure to small fixed stakes while regular punters can use percentage staking to align risk with their overall bankroll.
Whatever method you choose, set clear limits, stick to them and never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose.
Practical checklist before placing bets this weekend
Review final declarations, check the going updates, confirm jockeys and monitor market moves across multiple bookmakers for best value.
Use comparison tools to view available odds and remember affiliate links on this site are informational; choose offers responsibly.
Final notes on using bookmaker offers and comparisons
Bookmaker offers can add value when used correctly, but read terms and wagering requirements carefully before committing to any promotion.
You can explore current bookmaker offers through our comparison tools if you choose to bet responsibly and within legal age limits.
FAQs about these selections and responsible betting
Below are common questions readers ask about race analysis, staking and safety when following tips.
Q: Are these tips suitable for new bettors?
A: The tips are informational and suitable for readers aged 18+; new bettors should start with small stakes and familiarise themselves with basic betting markets.
Q: Do you guarantee a profit from these selections?
A: No guarantees are made; all betting carries risk and these are informed opinions rather than sure outcomes.
Q: How do I find the best odds for these picks?
A: Compare prices across reputable UK bookmakers and use our comparison pages to locate best available odds before placing a bet.
Q: What should I do if I think I have a gambling problem?
A: If gambling is causing harm, seek help from support organisations and consider self-exclusion tools; always prioritise your wellbeing.
Q: Is there value in each of the three selections?
A: Each selection presents a reasoned case based on form, race dynamics and jockey/trainer factors, but perceived value varies by market price and personal view.
Q: How much should I stake on each tip?
A: Stake according to a pre-defined plan that suits your bankroll; examples in the article suggest conservative unit sizing rather than large stakes.
Q: Are affiliate links used on this page?
A: Yes, some links are affiliate links and are provided for convenience; using them supports our site at no extra cost to you and is entirely optional.
Q: Who is this content aimed at?
A: The content is aimed at informed horse racing followers and punters aged 18+ looking for context and practical guidance rather than guarantees.
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