The last few weeks for The Top Three column have been frustrating.
Losses for Tower Of London and Rosscarbery were tough pills to swallow and last week’s NAP, Lezoo, was a non-runner on account of the ground.
LEZOO a non-runner. A non-losing NAP is a great sight.
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) July 22, 2023
This weekend, if you read Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, you could be sitting on one nice slip ahead of Saturday’s Valiant Stakes (she will be one of the bets included below) and if you backed Simca Mille for the King George before he was taken out of the race by connections, then I do feel for you.
Personally, when looking through Simca Mille’s form and pedigree, I had him down as a ground versatile horse who had performed a career-best effort on Good to Soft.
Would be an odd take from connections this, given he has G1 soft ground form, and it'll probably be good to soft by Saturday,
— Tony Calvin (@tony_calvin) July 27, 2023
Of course, connections know the horse best and he won on Good ground last time out, but his scratching from Ascot’s feature race came as a surprise.
Anyway, with one dart fired incorrectly, let’s plough on into this week’s The Top Three.
2:25 Ascot – Random Harvest @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win
Starting with the aforementioned Group 3 Valiant Stakes, Random Harvest looks like a standout bet at 10/3 with William Hill.
At an ante-post stage on Wednesday, Ed Walker’s five-year-old was 8/1 in a field where Prosperous Voyage was still in; now more than half the price, I’m still keen to keep her on the side.
📝 King George VI Stakes – Ante-post Analysis via @BestOfBetsUK
With beeping excitement on my face, I’ve put forward three bets to consider.
33/1 King George play plus 8/1 and 7/1 fancies.
Take a look and good luck 😃https://t.co/2gYNMCtIfE
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) July 26, 2023
Firstly, Roger Varian’s Ameynah is the money horse of the race (10/3 from 9/2), however, having her first run for 454 days on an unproven going description would put me off, especially due to the fact her dam, Tazffin, won on Good twice and placed in a Listed event on Good to Firm.
In fairness, Random Harvest isn’t the biggest mudlark in the world as her best run to date came in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge on Good and she was a promising second in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Good to Firm before that.
Frankie Dettori's LAST EVER ride at Epsom is a winner 🎉
He wins the Princess Elizabeth Stakes on PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 💯#DerbyFestival pic.twitter.com/3KUHz9MDnD
— Epsom Downs Racecourse (@EpsomRacecourse) June 3, 2023
However, her last victory came on Soft over in Italy, so she could just be a ground versatile type, and hopefully, if she can deal with the conditions, she will come out on top.
3:00 Ascot – Baradar @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW
Another horse mentioned in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis was Baradar in the International Stakes at 3:00pm.
The George Boughey-trained five-year-old loves Soft ground, as shown by his third in the Lincoln when getting to the front too soon, as well as his victory on Heavy when beating the race’s favourite, Biggles, in November.
Furthermore, a look at her pedigree shows that his dam, Go Lovely Rose, was third on Heavy and second on Soft, so this half-brother to Roseman, the runner-up in the 2020 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, should love every bit of give in Ascot’s going.
Also, on his second-last run at Ascot in the Victoria Cup, the Muhaarar gelding dwelt out of the stalls, shifted across the track to the nearside rail, and made up plenty of ground when beaten by five lengths; Perotto, who won two starts later, finished one place behind and Spycatcher, a Group 3 winner in France after, completed the race in fourth.
A winner at the Craven meeting and now a Victoria Cup winner!
Rebel Territory wins the Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup!#ITVRacing | @Ascot | @JimCrowley1978 | @Coombelands pic.twitter.com/4xYHIXtuK3
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 13, 2023
Off a lenient mark of 96, if everything falls into place, Kevin Stott could be on for an Amo Racing double depending on King Of Steel’s performance in the King George.
3:15 Ascot – My Prospero @ 6/5 with BoyleSports – 5pt Win
Finally, as shown by my five-point outlay, my NAP of July is over at York with My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.
Last year, a William Haggas and Tom Marquand horse forced me to tears as Dubai Honour lost at odds-on to Sir Busker, so this time around, hopefully, there isn’t a repeat.
I'm off to cry myself to sleep, see you all in October 👋 https://t.co/sXPTqzVEOc
— Ash Symonds Journalism (@ASymondsJourno) July 23, 2022
The Iffraaj colt was comfortably Haggas’ second-best horse in the yard last year behind the incredible Baaeed, however, he has yet to get off the mark this season in two attempts.
That wouldn’t worry me too much as the races he has lost in included a Lockinge Stakes over the wrong distance and a hot renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes where he drifted before the off and stayed on at the finish.
Extremely tough! My Prospero and @TomMarquand are Group 2 winners from the front at Saint-Cloud for William Haggas… pic.twitter.com/H13C7JYnk3
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) July 16, 2022
In a quieter Group 2 race, the four-year-old would have to seriously disappoint in order not to win and, like I said on the Only Fools Love Horses preview on Wednesday, this could be a ‘penalty kick’.
🚨 KING GEORGE STAKES PREVIEW🏇
The OFLH lads take a look at a brilliant weekend in the Flat calendar as the Group 1 King George Stakes takes centre stage.
– Big prices galore from Lee ‼️
– 25/1 King George fancy ✅
– Ash's "penalty kick" NAP🤩Enjoy: https://t.co/o9D8Byl416 pic.twitter.com/RpThu8HvRG
— Only Fools Love Horses Racing (@OFLHracing) July 26, 2023
I’ve jinxed it, haven’t I?
