Best Of Bets

Author: Ashley Symonds

  • 16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    Well, last week’s ante-post analysis turned out to be a profitable one, something that is always brilliant.

    THE FOXES delivered in the Dante Stakes at 13/2 to put readers in clover with CLARENDON HOUSE just missing out of the places and SILVER SWORD a late non-runner from the London Gold Cup.

    And despite a frustrating week for The Top Three article (more on that this Friday), we are heading full steam ahead into a regular week of good racing on the weekend with the Irish Guineas meeting at the Curragh taking centre stage.

    So, let’s dive into my early ante-post interests.

    O’Brien masterclass… again? 

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    It’s been six years since Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish 2000 Guineas, a stat that comes as a surprise considering the firepower the master of Ballydoyle usually has at his disposal.

    And it’s not like it has been through a lack of trying as the master trainer has sent 18 horses to the one-mile Curragh contest since Churchill’s win in 2017, with the most (6) coming in 2020 and the least (1) occurring last season.

    That stat does make you wonder why O’Brien is sending fewer horses to the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. It could be a change of tactics employed by Ballydoyle to only send ones with winning chances and the drop in regularity of pacemakers in these Group 1 contests over the last few seasons, or the effects of Galileo’s progeny production winding down before he passed away in 2021 could be accountable for this.

    However, it seems like we could see a couple more runners for O’Brien in this year’s renewal with Paddington, Age Of Kings, and Cairo all still in the race at the time of writing (Wednesday), but it is the latter who has caught my eye.

    By Quality Road, a four-time Grade 1 winner in the US at one-mile plus, out of a Galileo mare called Cuff, who won a Listed contest at six furlongs and is a full sister to Mars, Gustav Klimt, and Friendly, Cairo looks to have a pedigree that is promising and should suit the one-mile test well having already won at that trip twice.

    If you can forgive the three-year-old’s last run in the UAE Derby over nine-and-a-half furlongs, his two-length win at Dundalk was one with plenty of promise to build on his impressive victory at the end of last season in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes.

    The interesting thing about his Dundalk win is that Ryan Moore came over for the ride in early March and has only ever ridden at the track 16 times, winning on 10 of those occasions, so that would potentially suggest that he comes over for the useful horses.

    With all of this brought together, the 12/1 with William Hill is one that looks like a good price to me and I will be backing CAIRO for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    Able to Silence favourite backers 

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    Although the 2000 Guineas is a tough problem to work out, the Fillies’ equivalent could be cut and dry.

    Tahiyra was second in the Newmarket Guineas to a very good Mawj, pulled a long way clear of the rest, and could theoretically come on for the run.

    So this is simple, right? Well, there could be a bit more under the surface to discover.

    Firstly, she won’t be getting her soft ground conditions that she has received on her last two starts. This isn’t too much of a worry because she won on good to yielding on debut and her pedigree would say that good ground should be fine.

    Secondly, I have a small concern about why she didn’t pass Mawj last time out. She looked for all the world like she would glide by without any hindrance, however, she slightly hung her head into the winner and looked a small bit reluctant to move past.

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    And thirdly, that Guineas was run in attritional conditions and would have been a very, very hard race for a horse who was making their first start for eight months. Having received just a 21-day break, the bounce factor is a possibility.

    Can I see Tahiyra winning? Absolutely. Will I be backing her at 4/7? No, and I have an angle to take her on with.

    I’m going with a similar form line to the odds-on favourite as the ETERNAL SILENCE, third in the Moyglare Stakes behind Dermot Weld’s filly, is an exciting bet at 16/1 with William Hill.

    If you analyse her last run at the Curragh, Shane Foley was keen to drop her to the rear of the pack to try and settle this daughter of War Front into the race.

    That does occur and when she gets a clear route to the finish, Foley kicks for home and finishes best of the rest behind Tahiyra and Meditate, staying on over the seven-furlong trip.

    The step back up to a mile for the Irish 1000 Guineas, a distance she was third over two starts ago, should suit and on pedigree, she should be a better three-year-old as her dam, Princess Highway, won the 2012 Ribblesdale as a three-year-old.

    I’m hoping to see some improvement, which is required, but she looks to have the scope to do so.

    As mentioned on the recent Only Fools Love Horses video, her at 16/1 and Meditate at 7/1 will be the two plays for me, with the case for the latter being a return to front-running tactics and better ground could see her reverse the Newmarket and Curragh form with Tahiyra.

    So, the 4/7 favourite is one I am taking on. Am I making a rod for my own back? Most probably. Do I have an issue with that? No, who doesn’t love taking a bit of an exciting risk?

  • York Dante & Lockinge – Ante-post analysis

    York Dante & Lockinge – Ante-post analysis

    Some would call it the first day of the summer, others are just happy to see some good, competitive racing on our TV screens.

    And who could blame them for being excited; the Dante and Lockinge in the same week is always a tremendous sight.

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    As always, I will dive into my best long-range plays for the upcoming week, but only one of them is ante-post due to how the timings of everything happening this week. Apologies, however, the prices are still very decent.

    Trying to roll with the momentum of Call My Bluff’s third in the Chester Cup (advised at 12/1, went off 11/4), here is my look at both York and Newbury this week.

     

    Flying back home

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    The first horse to talk about comes in the opening race of day two at the York Dante Meeting as I’m taking a swing at http://gty.im/540676544  at 12/1 with William Hill.

    The Lindum York Handicap over the fast five furlongs is a competitive race, as would be expected with £18,039 on offer to the winner, but there are a few at the top of the market I would be keen to take on.

    Whenthedealinsdone seems to have his best form on softer ground, the same goes for Designer, and Korker won at York last year but is five pounds higher today.

    Plenty in here could easily hit the frame, but at the top of my list is the Robert Cowell-trained five-year-old sporting the infamous colours of Middleham Park Racing.

    Although he is halfway to double digits in age, he is still relatively lightly raced having not taken to the track until he was a three-year-old.

    He comes into tomorrow fresh having not raced since last September which works well considering he was second to Raasel on seasonal reappearance last year and he won his first two races on the track as a three-year-old; he actually gave away five pounds to Raasel in that Goodwood race before the Michael Appleby competitor would go on to achieve a career-high mark of 108 just two months later.

    As for Clarendon House, he is only three pounds higher than he was at the start of last year and he looks to be well-handicapped with conditions in his favour on Dante day.

     

    The fantastic Foxes

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    I’m sticking with day two at York and it’s the festival’s namesake, the Group 2 Dante Stakes, where I’m heading to next as THE FOXES at 13/2 with William Hill is a good play.

    Firstly, I better mention that I will also be playing DANCING MAGIC at any price north of 20/1 (28/1 is currently available) as he has the ability to step up with this increased distance, however, Andrew Balding’s charge is the main play for me.

    The Churchill three-year-old made a good start to the season in the Craven at Newmarket last month having beaten Dubai Mile, a subsequent Guineas fifth, at HQ at the end of last year.

    He steps up to 1m2f tomorrow, something that suits him best on pedigree as he is a full brother to Aidan O’Brien’s Perotan and is a half-brother to Bangkok, Tactic, and Matterhorn who all got further.

    It’s well known how high connections rate this horse, as shown by his name of ‘The Foxes’ for King Power Racing, and with a few unknowns in the field, he is the horse I like in the Dante.

     

    Live by the Sword

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    And finally, one of the big betting heats of the week is the ultra-competitive London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury on Saturday and I’m siding with SILVER SWORD at 10/1 with William Hill.

    Early-season three-year-old handicaps are always difficult to decipher as you always have to ask yourself the same questions. Have they trained on? Are they good when fresh? Is the two-year-old form actually that good?

    Luckily, the Dylan Cunha-trained grey answers all of those questions well.

    Firstly, sometimes it’s hard to tell if horses have trained on unless you have seen them yourself, but luckily Silver Sword has already been seen on track this season as he bolted up in a Southwell maiden 32 days ago.

    Furthermore, a scan of his pedigree would also suggest he should be better at three than at two as his sire, Charm Spirit, won three Group 1s as a three-year-old and his damsire, Rip Van Winkle, was a different animal at three thanks to his trio of efforts behind Sea The Stars in the Guineas, Derby, and Eclipse as well as his Sussex Stakes victory at Goodwood.

    Also, a look back at his two-year-old form proves to be a fruitful one as his fifth at odds of 250/1 to Military Order, the Epsom Derby ante-post second favourite, at Newmarket in October and second to Empress Wu, a 12/1 shot for today’s Musidora Stakes, at Lingfield in November reads well for a horse who has been given an opening mark of 82 by the handicapper.

    He is a standout bet in my eyes and hopefully can get Lockinge Day off to a good start.

  • 33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    Welcome to a new weekly column of mine where I talk about my three best bets for the weekend’s action.

    Alongside my ante-post analysis piece that is released on Wednesdays looking at any potential early angles into marquee races, this regular content will be released on Fridays with all the confirmed weather and declarations information available to me to make my final judgments.

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    I’ve given myself a ‘points’ staking plan to keep track of how I have done and how confident each play will be, all of which will be recorded and put at the bottom of every article. No pressure then!

    So with the admin out of the way, let’s get into the action.

     

    ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 12/1 – 3:15 Haydock – 0.5pt EW

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    It may be the Flat season right now, but the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock has taken a small amount of my interest as I will be having a 0.5pt EW play on ONEMOREFORTHEROAD for Neil King and Jack Quinlan.

    Although his last win came in December 2021 in the Intermediate Hurdle, the eight-year-old has only raced seven times since and his third to Anna Bunina in the 2022 Scottish Champion Hurdle reads well considering John McConnell’s mare has improved 16lbs since.

    Although his last two efforts on Good ground have been poor, he has been dropped six pounds for them and he did most of his winning on Good ground in the early parts of his career.

    With a rating of 127, which is nine pounds below that third at Ayr in 2022 and his last winning mark, King’s charge in the highlight handicap hurdle is my main fancy in the contest.

     

    TOIMY SON 33/1 – 2:40 Ascot – 1pt EW

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    My second biggest play of the weekend comes in the ever-tricky Victoria Cup and I’m giving the rank-outsider of the field, TOIMY SON, a chance at 33/1 with William Hill.

    I backed this four-year-old Twilight Son colt last time out in the Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile and he looked to be too keen which ultimately downplayed his chances of winning the race.

    I was quite confident of a big run last month, unfortunately, the market was not in agreement with me as he drifted out on the exchanges and was sent off at an SP of 40/1.

    So, why am I giving him a chance this week in the Victoria Cup?

    Firstly, there is only a small window of opportunity to run this horse as he needs soft ground, something he will get at Ascot this week, but as the summer rolls into full view, that chance of rain and slower conditions will diminish.

    Secondly, he is back down in trip to seven furlongs, the distance he was last seen winning at in Longchamp last May and hopefully, he won’t be so keen over a shorter trip.

    And finally, French jockey Cristian Demuro is jocked up on the bay for his only ride of the day which is a big jockey booking from David Menusier as he was the pilot that guided Toimy Son to success in that Longchamp race last year, a race where he beat Txope who went on to win the German 1000 Guineas on her next start.

    Taking this all in and harking back to his runners-up effort behind Mangoustine, a future French 1000 Guineas winner, as a two-year-old, I think he can run a big race off a workable mark of 102 in the Victoria Cup.

     

    ANGEL BLEU 15/8 – 3:50 Haydock – 3pt Win

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    This position was taken by Sea Of Roses for the Lingfield Oaks Trial but the switch to all-weather has meant she was not declared, however, ANGEL BLEU is a more than worthy substitute.

    If you can ignore his last run in France, I think he should be odds-on and not just a shade below 2/1.

    Firstly, the ground at Haydock is set to be the best in the country as the official going description is Good to Soft with no rain in sight.

    Despite his win at Saint-Cloud in October 2021 on Very Soft ground, I think his best form comes on better surfaces as his four-length fifth to Baaeed in last year’s Sussex Stakes and third to Perfect Power in last year’s Greenham Stakes would suggest.

    His pedigree would back this statement up being by Dark Angel (the 2007 Middle Park winner on Good ground) out of a Galileo mare.

    Now a four-year-old and still at somewhere near his best as shown by his unlucky runners-up effort to Berkshire Shadow at Wolverhampton two starts ago, Ralph Beckett’s contender is best at the weight by six pounds to his nearest market rival, Al Mubhir, and with a sounder surface under his feet than his run last time out, I think he will be tough to beat at 15/8.

  • 12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    So, about last week. A story of hard luck.

    The best bet of the week, GET AHEAD, probably saw his best chances diminish when the lashing of rain came down though his sixth behind the runaway winner Vadream was still good and the handicapper has dropped him two pounds for the run. One to watch on better ground.

    And with LITTLE BIG BEAR, the Guineas experiment, plus the fact he was struck into and found to be lame post-race, saw his chances of a Classic disappear as well. A shame, but that is horse racing.

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    Despite that, we kick on into the Chester May Festival that is on ITV this week, and alongside Lingfield Derby and Oaks Trials on Saturday, this week is one to be excited by.

     

    No Bluff with his chances

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    I’m starting with the Chester Cup this week and although it may not be an ante-post play by the time this goes up, it still warrants me putting him up as CALL MY BLUFF at 12/1 is top of my shortlist.

    For starters, he is a proven horse around Chester thanks to his second in the Watergate Cup behind Emiyn last September on good to soft ground and his win at Chester in June 2021 also builds on the idea that he can handle the course well.

    That form on Good to Soft from September is also useful information as it is set to be slow ground throughout the meeting thanks to the rain expected on Thursday and Friday.

    Furthermore, his run last time out behind a Novel Legend, the ante-post favourite for the race who has missed out on a run by one place, reads well as the winner was race-fit coming into the contest while the six-year-old was coming off a 195-day break.

    His trainer, Dominic Ffrench Davis, has a 25% strike rate currently and John Egan, his rider when second at Chester three starts ago, is booked to do the steering.

    Taking that all in, 16/1 is a fair price.

     

    Sweet as a Rose

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    I have just the two horses to highlight this week and I’m going to Lingfield for the Oaks Trial on Saturday for my final fancy as SEA OF ROSES at 5/1 holds lots of interest.

    The field is full of unknowns and this Sea The Moon three-year-old is one of them having finished a good second behind the exciting Pensee Du Jour at the start of April in the Group 3 Prix Penelope.

    That run was very encouraging over 1m2f and she was running well to the wire on soft ground, hopefully meaning the 1m3f on Saturday in worsening conditions should be fine.

    Furthermore, she beat Infinite Cosmos at the backend of last season at Doncaster over a mile, form that looks very good after the Sir Michael Stoute three-year-old bolted up at Newmarket on her next start and is now the 7/1 second favourite.

    The Andrew Balding team like this three-year-old, who is very closely related to Chris Waller’s Group 3 winner Desert Icon, and with the in-form Oisin Murphy set to get the leg-up, SEA OF ROSES is a good play at 5/1.

  • Newmarket Guineas Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Newmarket Guineas Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    The tweed jackets are back in the wardrobe and the chequered three-piece suits are beginning to get excited. That can only mean one this; the Flat is back.

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    Just looking at the pedigrees of unraced maidens has been filling my levels of enthusiasm for the summer and without even thinking about it, the first Classics are upon us.

    Newmarket hosts some brilliant Group races alongside the two feature events as well and the three-day event is already shaping up to be a good betting prospect, so let’s dive into my two ante-post plays of the opening weekend in May.

     

    Cox looking to Get Ahead

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    The first Group race of 2000 Guineas Day is a spicy contest with 17 entered at the time of writing and the betting market is at 4/1 the field.

    Plenty in here made the shortlist – Equality stepping out of handicap company and Arecibo in a lower-grade Group race were the main ones – but it’s Clive Cox’s GET AHEAD at 16/1 with William Hill that I am most interested in.

    Looking back on her last run, a race she was backed in for having opened up at 15/2 before going off 11/2, she broke out the stalls and instantly met trouble in behind some runners causing her to lose some lengths.

    However, she miraculously made up ground around the outside of the pack at Bath with its long, sweeping bend to finish a good third behind Happy Romance who finished sixth in a Group 1 over in Meydan the race before Bath.

    In her two-year racing career, she beat Eve Lodge, a subsequent Group 3 winner, and Wild Beauty, a subsequent Canadian Grade 1 winner, on debut over five furlongs at Ascot before her sixth in the Queen Mary the following month.

    Two good races behind White Lavender, now rated 108, and Mitbaahy, now rated 109, in her three-year-old career read well, but it is her last victory in a handicap at Goodwood that was the most impressive as she gave seven pounds away to Silky Wilkie, who reappears on Saturday, to win by two lengths – the runner-up would go on to win a handicap off a 15lb higher mark running to an RPR of 114.

    Now in receipt of three pounds from the Karl Burke four-year-old and with Rossa Ryan booked to do the steering, I think the four-year-old son of Showcasing is worthy of this Group 3 challenge.

     

    Beware of the Bear

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    Over the last few months, there has been one horse who gathered all of the pre-Guineas chat.

    Quotes about the infamous triple-crown have been thrown about before he has even hit the track this year but it seems like Auguste Rodin is the Ballydoyle hopeful for this year.

    His Vertem Futurity win was good, admittedly, but there is a case to be made that the horses in behind didn’t run their true race and the hustle and bustle of a Guineas could just find him out.

    Of course, he is good, but at 7/4, I am inclined to look away.

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    And where I am looking is not too far away as I’m with his stablemate LITTLE BIG BEAR at 11/2 with William Hill.

    His form is the best coming into this race and his win in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last August was breathtaking to beat Persian Force, Shartash, and Bradsell.

    Of course, the big question coming into Saturday is to whether this son of No Nay Never will get the Rowley Mile.

    Taking a look through his pedigree, the speed comes from his sire’s side; he’s a No Nay Never who was a Group 1 winner over six furlongs, however, his dam, Adventure Seeker, has produced five other horses who have won races ranging from seven furlongs to two miles.

    Even his damsire, Bering, was a high-class 12-furlong horse so you would hope that the influence of his dam’s side will allow him to stay the full eight furlongs.

    The ‘will he stay’ argument can be applied to plenty more in here – Sakheer and Noble Style – but with the way he went about his races over six furlongs last year, I would be hopeful that he can apply his brilliant self to the Guineas better than a few others and he is my pick for the 2000 Guineas.

  • Punchestown Festival Day One & Two Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day One & Two Bets

    Last week was a good week for the ante-post analysis column.

    SAIL AWAY at 6/1 duly obliged in some style at Ayr thanks to a brilliant Bridget Andrews ride and both MILKWOOD and EMPIRE STEEL had good spins in their relative races.

    With Scotland’s big day now behind us, we head to Punchestown for the final big spring festival of the national hunt season and although Willie Mullins looks to have a stronghold on all five days, there are a few interesting bets.

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    Here are my angles into the first two days of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    Hopes with Paul 

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    The opening race of the week is one of the most interesting contests of the whole five-day event with the market at 11/4 the field.

    Runners who have gone to Cheltenham and Fairyhouse collide with contenders who come into this fresh and it’s Martin Brassil’s WALK WITH PAUL at 9/1 that holds my biggest interest.

    Plenty in here – Shecouldbeanything, Nikini, and The Model Kingdom – all come into the race from having run at the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and the form has taken a bit of a whacking since, so I’d be weary to be looking at these runners.

    WALK IN PAUL arrives at Punchestown having finished very close to the useful Deeply Superficial at Limerick on her last run while giving two pounds away to the winner – Deeply Superficial did run a good race at Cheltenham considering she came back lame having pulled up after the second-last.

    If you can forgive the run behind Corbetts Cross and Find A Fifty at Naas in February, a race that looks good on form anyway, then her maiden hurdle win in January was very promising, displaying a good level of speed and jumping throughout.

    Martin Brassil is a trainer whom I rate highly and he has been good at these spring festivals so far this year thanks to his two close seconds at Cheltenham, so with her in receipt of three pounds from some of the field, she could be there at the finish.

     

    A Classic winner 

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    The first Classics of the flat season are just around the corner with the Guineas at Newmarket occurring next weekend, however, my mind is on another Classic in the form of a Cheveley Park runner today as CLASSIC GETAWAY at 7/2 is the way I want to play the Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase.

    The seven-year-old hasn’t been seen since his beginners’ chase win in November, however, on bare form alone, he had JOURNEY WITH ME, a horse who reappears here, beaten at the second-last before he fell as well as finishing ahead of stablemate MINELLA COCOONER who was a runner-up twice in two Grade 1 hurdle races last season.

    I think there is plenty of scope to take on his owner and stablemate Sir Gerhard in the fact that I’m not convinced that he is a true stayer or as good as people think he is and his run behind Flame Bearer over 2m4f at Fairyhouse last time out, just 16 days ago, looked very laboured to my eye.

    Journey With Me is the worthy favourite in the fact that he is very consistent but we are still yet to see him perform in Grade 1 company and the rest of the field, bar JAMES DU BERLAIS who looks to be overpriced at 12/1, wouldn’t be to my liking.

    If he is 100% for today, which would be a small concern considering he has had more setbacks than runs in the last 12 months, I think he will take a lot of beating with the mustard man Danny Mullins in the saddle.

     

    Royalty to retain thrown 

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    And finally, day two at the Punchestown Festival is difficult in the Grade 1s but I’m turning to the 2m5f handicap chase at 7:05 for a scummy each-way play as I think ROYAL RENDEZVOUS looks very interesting back in the race he won 12 months ago.

    The 11-year-old was very good last year to sneak up the nearside rail under Paul Townend and win off a five-pound higher mark than he will have to carry this time around and it seems to be great placing from the team at Closutton to get him down from a high-mark of 165 by running him in three Graded races since – their hand was slightly forced due to his rating, however.

    You’d have to say that even though he has yet to show too much promise in his three runs since, a good pipe-opener last time out at Fairyhouse should have him spot-on for the €100,000 contest and with William Hill going 6/1 about him on a very workable mark, he sets the standard in this nine-runner field and looks to be a sneaky each-way play on a tough day of racing at Punchestown.

     

  • Scottish Grand National Preview

    Scottish Grand National Preview

    The latest Only Fools Love Horses video, sponsored by BestofBets.com, is now live on YouTube as the lads provide you with their Scottish Grand National Preview.

    All three have double-figure fancies for the marquee race at Ayr on Saturday and Lee is hoping that Lucinda Russell can complete a memorable Grand National double after Corach Rambler’s success in the Aintree rendition of this contest.

    The Scottish Champion Hurdle is another big race on ITV this weekend and Ash believes a former winner of the race can make use of his lower handicap mark to reclaim his title.

    14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    Having not been seen for 168 days, Harry is on the side of a 10/1 shot in the Future Champion Novices’ Chase who should relish the better ground.

    Make sure to like the Scottish Grand National Preview video, subscribe to the channel, and comment down below your fancy for the weekend on Ayr’s biggest day of the jumps season.

  • 14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    This weekend sees us go from Aintree to Ayr as we turn our attention to a Scottish rendition of the Grand National, a race brilliantly won last year by Christian Williams’ Win My Wings.

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    After the high-drama issues and performances both on and off the track over the weekend at horse racing’s biggest singular day, the Scottish Grand National homes into view to draw our attention away from the regular debates occurring between us and those of an opposing view.

    With that being said, I have three horses at 6/1, 14/1, and 14/1 to highlight for BestofBets.com that are set to run in Scotland on Saturday.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    Sailing to success

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    My first fancy for the weekend comes in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase and I’ll be taking a swing at Dan Skelton’s SAIL AWAY at 6/1 to continue his progression.

    Having finished second when giving six pounds away to the future two-time Ultima winner and Grand National successor, Corach Rambler, in October 2021, this gallant grey looks like he’ll relish a good three miles at a course that promotes precise jumping, something Sail Away has locked down.

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    When receiving his correct conditions of better ground and three miles, the Martaline gelding has finished second to Dusart in a novice chase at Leicester, third in a competitive handicap chase at Aintree, and easily won a three-runner Warwick contest.

    His second to Jetoile last time out reads well considering it was over the wrong distance on slow ground and that run last month should have him 100% for Ayr on Saturday.

    At 6/1, taking into account the horses he has run into and the performances he has consistently been putting in for nearly two years, Sail Away looks like a solid proposition in the second race of the day.

     

    The former champion is back

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    I’m going to the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2:25 for the second ante-post fancy of the weekend and it looks to be a very competitive field thanks to Colonel Mustard, Nemean Lion, and Iceo.

    Before I give my fancy, I think ANNA BUNINA at 8/1 has got a good chance. She has constantly been improving from her win in this race last year and back on better ground, her form with Gaelic Warrior and Queens Brook reads well off a mark of 142.

    However, it’s the 2021 champion MILKWOOD who gets the nod from me at 14/1.

    He pulled up on his last start in the County Hurdle on ground that wouldn’t have been too favourable and with the surface set to be quick enough on Saturday, he should get his correct conditions.

    Neil Mulholland’s nine-year-old won this race two years ago off a four-pound higher mark and was a not-too-distant fifth in the 2022 renewal of the contest off a 12-pound higher mark.

    He has been performing well this season and looked to be going well in the competitive Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May before falling two-out, so at a course he seems to thrive off, on ground that will be suitable, and with a workable handicap mark, 14/1 seems a reasonable price for this former winner.

     

    A Steel of a price

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    And finally, following his victory over Coral Gold Cup victor Le Milos last time out, EMPIRE STEEL is the horse for me in the feature race of the weekend, the Scottish Grand National, at 14/1.

    I always thought this horse was waiting to land a big handicap event so to see him win a Listed race when beating the Dan Skelton runner at Kelso when seven pounds wrong at the weights was surprising, however, the handicapper has potentially let him off with one by only raising him four pounds for the effort.

    This gallant grey was second to the useful Potterman in March 2022 off a one-pound higher mark in a race that was run over 3m2f on good ground; he kept on at the finish that day which shows promise that he could handle a marathon trip on decent ground.

    Furthermore, not too long ago, this nine-year-old beat Protektorat in a novice chase at Kelso in the same year that he fell at the fourth-last in the 2021 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby when clearly going the best.

    Empire Steel is in the best form of his life and off a mark of 145, he is capable of producing a career-best effort when he needs it the most.

  • Grand National 2023: Ante-post analysis

    Grand National 2023: Ante-post analysis

    Well, Cheltenham has been and gone like the revolving circus that it is and the national hunt season is slowly, but surely, dwindling away as we head into the height of the summer.

    Royal Ascot and the Epsom Derby seem like they are arriving quicker than anyone would like, however, we still have Aintree’s Grand National extravaganza to look forward to.

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    With the meeting becoming its own mini ‘Festival’ now, here are the horses from the three-day event that Ash Symonds of BestofBets.com will be looking to keep on the side of.

     

    Grand National: Roi Mage 50/1 

    We are starting with my captain of the meeting, the horse that will be leading the troops into battle, and the competitor that if it wins, I’ll be talking about for many years to come.

    That’s right, I will be on the side of Patrick Griffin’s ROI MAGE for the blue-ribboned event, the Grand National.

    Now, I wouldn’t blame you for not knowing this horse very well, however, there is a strong case to be made.

    Before this 11-year-old moved to Griffin in 2022, he ran some very good races over the water in some of the top races in France for his previous trainer, a stint that included a good fourth in the 2021 Grade 2 Grand Steeple-Chase de Compiegne when giving weight away and a facile win in the Listed Prix The Stomp Chase at Compiegne.

    Since moving over to Ireland, he beat Augusta Gold and Samcro at Down Royal in March 2022 when wrong at the weights, finished a good third in the 2022 Grand Steeple-Chase-Cross-Country de Compiegne, was running a good race at Cheltenham Trials Day before falling at the 20th, and he gave five pounds away to Longhouse Poet and Burrows Saint at Down Royal when finishing a close second.

    The form looks very favourable in my eyes and will carry 10-8, his lowest racing weight for five years.

    All things considered, 50/1 is massive and connections are quite sweet on his chances, as shared by assistant trainer James Griffin in the recent Only Fools Love Horses video sponsored by us at BestofBets.com (23:30-36:00).

     

    Liverpool Hurdle: Champ 7/1

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    I’m interested in CHAMP for the Liverpool Hurdle due to the power of deduction.

    Time and time again, we see horses who have had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival underperform at Aintree – looking at just last year, L’Homme Presse, Thyme Hill, Protektorat, and even Champ all ran well below their best having performed at a good level the month before.

    Looking at the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle, Teahupoo, Flooring Porter, Sire Du Berlais, Dashel Drasher, and Home By The Lee all ran in the Stayers Hurdle whilst Marie’s Rock ran in the Mares’ Hurdle and Thyme Hill ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.

    All of these horses could show up at Aintree for the three-mile Grade 1 hurdle having run at Cheltenham which leaves just Champ who hasn’t run since his third to Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle on Boxing Day.

    The Nicky Henderson-trained gelding has an impeccable record when fresh, a stat that reads 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 when running after a 70+ day layoff.

    With that in mind, this relatively lightly-raced 11-year-old could outrun his odds of 7/1 if he is on song again, however, I would be fearful of Teahupoo from the market rivals as he is probably the best horse in the race and if he turns out well from Cheltenham, a Stayers’ Hurdle that was run in attritional conditions, he could be the one to upset Champ’s party and if you are happy to back both in the same race, I wouldn’t put you off that.

     

    Aintree Bowl: Conflated 9/2

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    This year’s Aintree Bowl over three miles could be one of the hottest renewals of the contest for the last few years as Shishkin, Ahoy Senor, Bravemansgame, Conflated, and A Plus Tard are all prominent in the betting market at the time of writing.

    The former would be stepping up to this distance for the first time in his career and all of the others ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, with Bravemansgame finishing a good second to Galopin Des Champs.

    All will go to the race with live chances, but I’d be keen to give Conflated a chance at 9/2.

    Taking in the conditions of the race, I’d say Gordon Elliott’s runner is the second-best horse of the group and is still improving, as shown by his good third in the blue-ribboned event at the Festival when finding a bit of trouble in running under Sam Ewing, a jockey who only knew he was going to be riding him 20 minutes before the race after Davy Russell stood himself down for the day.

    The one query I’d have about his run last time out is I wasn’t sure how well he saw out the 3m2f of the Cheltenham test, but back to three miles on a flat track in a race he was second in last year (he should have won if he was more prominent), I think all things lead to him running a good race.

    The only horse that might just have the edge over him is Bravemansgame and it seems like connections are lining up this contest for their King George winner, however, I’d have a small query about how hard a race he had in the Gold Cup and whether he can bounce back to that form again.

    Conflated should be fine reappearing at Aintree so soon after Cheltenham as he did the same last year when falling in the Ryanair at the penultimate fence before finishing second in this race.

    So, it’s my cliff horse that gets the nod for me.

     

    Mersey Novices’ Hurdle: Letsbeclearaboutit 14/1

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    To finish off my Grade 1 fancies, I’ll be taking a swing at Letsbeclearaboutit for Gavin Cromwell in the Mersey on Saturday.

    He is trying 2m4f for the very first time having won a bumper nicely as a six-year-old over two miles as well as a good second to American Mike over 2m6f in 2022.

    Since then, he has ran into the top staying novices in the hurdling division this season over three miles and he ran a great race in the Albert Bartlett for all he maybe didn’t truly see out the trip.

    He has shown plenty of gears from his bumper victory and throughout all his races this season and even in his 22-length victory two starts ago, there is obviously a good power unit there.

    At this new trip that I think could bring out improvement, I’ll be siding with him alongside DARK RAVEN at 13/1 for Willie Mullins who has been crying out for a step up in trip and he ran a belting race in the Supreme for 80% of the race before being caught for a bit of speed at the finish.

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    An extra four furlongs will be perfect for him, in my opinion, so those two horses are where I’ll be keeping my faith with.

    Handicap fancies

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    There are also a few in handicaps that are grabbing my interest.

    In the Topham Handicap Chase over the national fences, I’ll be chancing PHOENIX WAY at 16/1 for JP McManus.

    He’s down to a low mark of 138 having finished second to Annsam in December 2021, a horse who has now improved 15lbs since, before an easy win at Ascot in January 2022 off 140.

    Back to a middle-distance trip of the Topham and off this low mark, he should be very competitive at 16/1.

    And finally, and stick with me on this one, I think that JASON THE MILITANT could be ready to step back to his former glory in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 2:20 on Friday.

    Having been a Grade 1 horse at one point in his career, he moved from Henry de Bromhead to Philip Kirby at the start of the year and has now dropped down to a mark of 146.

    Joe Williamson is set to claim five pounds off his back and if the ground turns up soft, something that could happen with the incoming rain on Thursday, this horse off an effective mark of 141, having run a super race on Trials Day off an eight-pound higher mark over the wrong distance, is big enough at 66/1 for me to take a swing.

  • Only Fools Love Horses: Easter Weekend Racing Preview

    Only Fools Love Horses: Easter Weekend Racing Preview

    This week’s Only Fools Love Horses YouTube video is sponsored by us over here at BestofBets.com, a video that covers racing action from top to bottom over the Easter period.

    Ash Symonds, Harry Beard, and Lee Gibson take a look at the all-weather finals that are taking place at Newcastle on Friday before moving onto the ITV Racing action from Musselburgh for the Queen’s Cup Heritage Handicap in Scotland.

    Here’s why you should watch the channel, from Ash.

    If you aren’t familiar with us Only Fools Love Horses lads, we are three enthusiastic racing fans who have been doing YouTube for just over a year and our big Cheltenham Festival Preview had some brilliant guests that included Upping The Ante’s Johnny Dineen, Emma Nagle from Irishracing.com, and Paul Callaghan from The Irish Field.

    Our big aim is to try and get a new audience into horse racing because this is a sport that we love and a sport that we hope others can begin to enjoy.

    This week, Harry has a massive 50/1 fancy in the feature race on Saturday, Lee has set his eyes on Leopardstown as a certain Allegorie De Vassy could be making her first start since the Cheltenham Festival and I’ve made a strong case for an ex-Aidan O’Brien sprinter in the Scottish Sprint Cup that could still be unexposed.

    Moving on to Sunday and it’s full steam ahead to the Grade 1 action at Leopardstown as I’m still keeping the faith in the market leader for the very competitive Honeysuckle Mares’ Novice Hurdle whilst also sharing an interesting each way angle into the race at a massive 20/1.

    Finally, the trio of us have a good look at the €500,000 Boylesports Irish Grand National that headlines the bank holiday weekend. The team throw up double-figure prices left, right, and centre and Lee gives a good word for an 80/1 shot that could outrun its odds in a big way.

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    Make sure to check out the video, like, comment, and subscribe and use the link in the description to check out our exclusive Grand National page at BestofBets.com to see brilliant analysis and tips ahead of Aintree.