Best Of Bets

Tag: Royal Ascot

  • Royal Ascot weekend pointers: 25/1 Wokingham punt impresses

    Royal Ascot weekend pointers: 25/1 Wokingham punt impresses

    With a week to go until the most famous race meeting on the planet begins, anticipation for this year’s Royal Ascot is simmering.

    As trainers around the globe put their final preparations toward the trip to Berkshire, both Haydock and Goodwood threw up some interesting results.

    But what caught caught our eye?

     

    Raatea roused

    The big winner of the weekend came in the SkyBet Reverence Handicap as Raatea threw his Top Hat into the ring for the Wokingham.

    As 9/4f and June specialist Mr Wagyu floundered, Julie Camacho would have been delighted with her gelding.

    With fellow big-shots Emperor Spirit and Nomadic Empire following Raatea home at 13/2, his backers would have taken note.

    Though a first win in almost a year, the now 6yo has flourished in the summer months in previous terms.

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    Indeed, in four June outings, he has now been beaten only once.

    With the latest 6f dash to come Saturday week, Raatea has proved a liking for the firmer and faster ground.

    Though Orazio remains the favourite for this particular sprint, you may not find a better punt during Royal Ascot 2023.

    A long price at 25/1 with BetVictor but far from a no-hoper.

     

    Candleford cold

    At the other end of the market, it was not the ideal outing for William Haggas hopeful, Candleford.

    He came home only third behind Peripatetic and Charlie Appleby’s First Ruler.

    Set to line-up in the Hardwicke Stakes – also a week on Saturday – the 5yo who won the Duke of Edinburgh 12 months ago, struggled on the baked turf.

    As Goodwood broiled, the ground become similar to that of last summer.

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    Admittedly, that was the same good to firm going that brought the gelding a six-length victory, but that win at Ascot was his last.

    It’s now six trips for the son of Kingman without taking the winning post first.

    Candleford is currently fifth in the betting to complete an Ascot double on successive years.

    However, taking on the likes of Adayar and AP O’Brien’s Broome-Bolshoi Ballet double, this was not a good marker to lay.

     

    Equilateral shaping up

    Returning to Merseyside meanwhile, Frankie Dettori may have gone winless at Haydock this weekend, but Equilateral showed promise.

    Runner-up for the second race on the spin, trainer Charlie Hills would have been pleased even if a beaten favourite.

    Equilateral is set to take on the mighty Highfield Princess and the burgeoning Dramatised in the Kings Stand.

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    Though the early antepost price is hefty – an even bigger one than Raatea – he will still be worth looking at.

    It stands to reason that Equilateral has his doubters; all three of his wins since 2020 have come at Meydan.

    However, if the rains don’t come in the next week – and they aren’t expected – he looks a fantastic long-price shot.

    On his day, Equilateral is a fast finisher and if in touch with the pack, may bolt up at a huge 50/1 with BetUK.

  • Four To Follow: Northern Territory

    Four To Follow: Northern Territory

    This week is the come-down from Epsom, and the build-up starts for Royal Ascot. But there is still racing to be run, and this Saturday the action comes from up North. The John of Gaunt is the feature at Haydock, whilst at Beverley it’s early two-year-old action on Hilary Needler Day. Here is Saturday’s Four To Follow.

    The Forza Is Strong

    Haydock: 2:25 – Better Betting With Sky Bet Handicap – Forza Orta @ 15/2 (Boylesports, Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

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    Kevin Ryan hasn’t had a winner since the Dante Festival, which is odd for trainer like him. He’s normally a shrewd operator, but maybe the handicapper has just got the better of him of late. But Forza Orta represents a great chance for the Hambleton trainer. The firm ground won’t be problem for Forza Orta, with one win and two seconds on the going. Plus he’s on a respectable mark, one pound higher than his last winning mark. It was also the same rating when he was eighth in last year’s race, but the ground wasn’t rattling that day. It will be today so be prepared to watch him fly.

    Keep an eye out for Live Your Dream, representing Godolphin and Saeed bin Suroor. He’s been off the track for 609 days, last seen finishing towards the rear in the 2021 Cesarewitch. Firm ground is his preferred ground and his mark of 100 doesn’t put him at the top of the weights. Each-way swing at 12/1 (10Bet, BetVictor)

    The Stars Could Align

    Haydock: 3:35 – John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group Three) – The Astrologist @ 11/4 (William Hill)

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    Everyone’s eyes lit up when they saw an Aussie sprinter turn up at the Dante Festival. But The Astrologist didn’t ruffle any feathers finishing in the middle of the pack. On his form, he came name near to scalping a Group One sprint in Dubai, but in reality, he’s a Group Three level sprinter. And this being a Group Three, you feel that this is his level. Firm ground will help him, and the seven furlong trip won’t be a problem either, with his last win coming over seven down under. Ryan Moore has been riding out of his skin lately and gets the leg up again on the foreign raider.

    Bermuda In Bloom

    Beverley: 2:05 – Hilary Needler Fillies’ Stakes – Flora Of Bermuda @ 5/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

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    There is one rule about Beverley for anyone wanting to put a bet on. If your horse is drawn high, you can forget it. Near side horses power up the hill to win a flurry of races. But three horses bucked the trend when winning from high-drawn stalls. The other thing is that these two-year-old winners are all by sprinters. They are all bred to be sprinters, not to be classic winners. Which brings me to Flora of Bermuda; by Dark Angel (Sprint-bred); Drawn in stall two (Low Draw) and has an in-form jockey in Oisin Murphy teaming up with Andrew Balding. It’s a slight negative that Balding trains him, as the last nine winners have all been trained up North. But, clearly, Balding thinks highly of this horse to bring her to the Westwood, and she’s been dealt a decent hand.

    From Bombay to Beverley

    Beverley: 3:15 – bet365 Two Year Old Trophy – Bombay Bazaar @ 100/30 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetVictor, William Hill)

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    If we apply the small checklist for Beverley sprint winners to Bombay Bazaar he is by a sprinter, Kodiac, he is drawn low, in stall three, and he is trained up North by Richard Fahey. To make him even more appealing, he’s a C&D winner. Breaking well out of stall eight, he sat in behind the leaders, waited for a gap, got the gap and couldn’t be caught. He certainly came on from his debut at Thirsk. Stable jockey Oisin Orr gets the leg up instead of Jack Garrity, but Orr will know him well from home and should deliver another good win for the Fahey team.

    The very best of luck!

    And, FORZA INTERNAZIONALE!!

  • 16/1 Royal Ascot Tip – Ante-post analysis

    16/1 Royal Ascot Tip – Ante-post analysis

    Last week at Epsom was a surreal experience. The moments before, during, and after were ones filled with nerves, not because of the horses I had backed, but of whether we would have a ‘normal’ Derby.

    Despite one small bit of trouble, we were and I think we all let out a big sigh of relief.

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    This week felt like horse racing clawed one point back against the backlash thrown our way and hopefully, this can continue on to the premier Flat meeting of the year in Royal Ascot.

    Speaking of the five-day Royal meeting, with this weekend’s action unlikely to be a vintage crop, I’ve decided to provide one fancy for Ascot which starts in just under two weeks as well as one EW selection for Saturday.

    Thanks to two good seconds from last week’s Ante-post Analysis piece, let’s roll on to the fancies.

     

    In Aidan we trust

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    Both Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are in some serious form at the moment and it’s great to see.

    The master trainer is operating at a 31% strike rate and his stable jockey is a shade better at 38% following their lethal partnership in the Derby on Saturday.

    Looking ahead to Royal Ascot, Ballydoyle has a plethora of Royal Ascot entries with Luxembourg, The Antarctic, and Little Big Bear the standouts.

    However, it’s an improving three-year-old that I am keen to side with as the 16/1 about BERTINELLI for the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes has grabbed my attention.

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    Firstly, just looking at the race, there are potentially seven horses ahead of O’Brien’s Jusitfy colt that are unlikely to turn up, suggesting that the double-figure price is good value.

    Secondly, it was his Newbury victory in the London Gold Cup that caused me to become a fan of his as the way he stayed on over 10 furlongs, a distance that probably isn’t ideal, was very taking and O’Brien was pleasantly surprised post-race.

    If this chestnut colt can continue to improve, something that should occur, I have high hopes for a big run at Royal Ascot.

     

    In-form Frankie

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    Frankie Dettori’s farewell tour had a successful leg of the journey at Epsom thanks to a glorious treble on the Downs.

    He will hop into the saddle three times this week; once at Kempton tonight and twice at Haydock on Saturday and it’s his ride onboard EQUILATERAL at 5/1 with William Hill in the opening contest that grabs me.

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    Assuming that George Boughey’s Perdika doesn’t run (she ran in France on Sunday) then Charlie Hills’ eight-year-old is the second-best at the weights with just Prince Of Pillo ahead of him.

    Following a good return to form last time out when ridden by Dettori in the Group 2 Temple Stakes, his fifth in last season’s Group 1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot is some of the best form in the race.

    With quick ground on the horizon for Saturday at Haydock, a 5/1 EW play looks very reasonable.

  • 33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    Welcome to a new weekly column of mine where I talk about my three best bets for the weekend’s action.

    Alongside my ante-post analysis piece that is released on Wednesdays looking at any potential early angles into marquee races, this regular content will be released on Fridays with all the confirmed weather and declarations information available to me to make my final judgments.

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    I’ve given myself a ‘points’ staking plan to keep track of how I have done and how confident each play will be, all of which will be recorded and put at the bottom of every article. No pressure then!

    So with the admin out of the way, let’s get into the action.

     

    ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 12/1 – 3:15 Haydock – 0.5pt EW

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    It may be the Flat season right now, but the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock has taken a small amount of my interest as I will be having a 0.5pt EW play on ONEMOREFORTHEROAD for Neil King and Jack Quinlan.

    Although his last win came in December 2021 in the Intermediate Hurdle, the eight-year-old has only raced seven times since and his third to Anna Bunina in the 2022 Scottish Champion Hurdle reads well considering John McConnell’s mare has improved 16lbs since.

    Although his last two efforts on Good ground have been poor, he has been dropped six pounds for them and he did most of his winning on Good ground in the early parts of his career.

    With a rating of 127, which is nine pounds below that third at Ayr in 2022 and his last winning mark, King’s charge in the highlight handicap hurdle is my main fancy in the contest.

     

    TOIMY SON 33/1 – 2:40 Ascot – 1pt EW

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    My second biggest play of the weekend comes in the ever-tricky Victoria Cup and I’m giving the rank-outsider of the field, TOIMY SON, a chance at 33/1 with William Hill.

    I backed this four-year-old Twilight Son colt last time out in the Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile and he looked to be too keen which ultimately downplayed his chances of winning the race.

    I was quite confident of a big run last month, unfortunately, the market was not in agreement with me as he drifted out on the exchanges and was sent off at an SP of 40/1.

    So, why am I giving him a chance this week in the Victoria Cup?

    Firstly, there is only a small window of opportunity to run this horse as he needs soft ground, something he will get at Ascot this week, but as the summer rolls into full view, that chance of rain and slower conditions will diminish.

    Secondly, he is back down in trip to seven furlongs, the distance he was last seen winning at in Longchamp last May and hopefully, he won’t be so keen over a shorter trip.

    And finally, French jockey Cristian Demuro is jocked up on the bay for his only ride of the day which is a big jockey booking from David Menusier as he was the pilot that guided Toimy Son to success in that Longchamp race last year, a race where he beat Txope who went on to win the German 1000 Guineas on her next start.

    Taking this all in and harking back to his runners-up effort behind Mangoustine, a future French 1000 Guineas winner, as a two-year-old, I think he can run a big race off a workable mark of 102 in the Victoria Cup.

     

    ANGEL BLEU 15/8 – 3:50 Haydock – 3pt Win

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    This position was taken by Sea Of Roses for the Lingfield Oaks Trial but the switch to all-weather has meant she was not declared, however, ANGEL BLEU is a more than worthy substitute.

    If you can ignore his last run in France, I think he should be odds-on and not just a shade below 2/1.

    Firstly, the ground at Haydock is set to be the best in the country as the official going description is Good to Soft with no rain in sight.

    Despite his win at Saint-Cloud in October 2021 on Very Soft ground, I think his best form comes on better surfaces as his four-length fifth to Baaeed in last year’s Sussex Stakes and third to Perfect Power in last year’s Greenham Stakes would suggest.

    His pedigree would back this statement up being by Dark Angel (the 2007 Middle Park winner on Good ground) out of a Galileo mare.

    Now a four-year-old and still at somewhere near his best as shown by his unlucky runners-up effort to Berkshire Shadow at Wolverhampton two starts ago, Ralph Beckett’s contender is best at the weight by six pounds to his nearest market rival, Al Mubhir, and with a sounder surface under his feet than his run last time out, I think he will be tough to beat at 15/8.