Best Of Bets

Tag: ITV Racing

  • Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Day Four was an up and down day at Royal Ascot. Tahiyra, tipped up by me three times, won in a messy race. And King of Steel proved his run in the Derby wasn’t a fluke. Today is the final day of what has been an incredible meeting, let’s finish on a high. Here are my Day Five picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ROYAL REPEAT

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    NAP: Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Rohaan always seems to come alive at the Royal meeting. Two Wokingham’s, two wins. But now he’s too high for the handicap, but those two were just as good as Group One performances, and shouldn’t’ have trouble here. People may say that he is punching above his weight with the likes of the Aussie Artorius, and the Hong Kong raider Wellington, but I think he holds his own, especially when he’s at Ascot. His record is 4 wins out of six at the Berkshire track, and he finished fourth in a Group One last year. And, dare I say, the draw might suit him.

    Watch out for Kinross, who had a stellar season last year with many trips over the seven furlongs. He dropped back to six in the Champions Sprint Stakes here and wowed with an eye-catching performance. He’s been overtaken in the market by the two international raiders, and Highfield Princess, but he shouldn’t be discounted, particularly now with Frankie on form. Fourth-best in the market at 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill).

    PYLE IN TOP GEAR

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    E/W BET: Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – Pyledriver @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    I can’t accept that Pyledriver is at that price, at course he loves, on ground he loves. He hasn’t been seen since winning the King George last year due to injuries and various setbacks, but William Muir and Chris Grassick love this horse, and won’t have run him unless he was 100% fit. He’s has lost to Hukum before, but he bounced back in the King George last year. He has some sketchy form when coming back of a break, but recently he’s been winning, and there’s no reason to say he can’t here.

    HAGGAS IN THE HANDICAP

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    Handicap Best: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Khanjar @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

    Looking at the pace map, it’s all over the shop, so draw may not matter. There is some pace coming out of stalls 25-28, and Khanjar can lock on to it from 24. Haggas has only sent out three runners, and ended up with a winner in Desert Hero. And the combination of Haggas, Crowley and Shadwell in a handicap should strike fear into their rivals. Plus his form makes for good reading; ran a good race at Hamilton (stiff track) and finished a length behind the winner. The cheek-pieces are on to sharpen him up, which is always a good sign. Plus a bit of C&D can’t go amiss.

    Looking further down the market First Folio for James Ferguson makes appeal at 25/1 (General). He has won a heritage handicap, the Macmillan Sprint at York in 2021 and finished sixth in last year’s Wokingham. He’s been given the same handicap rating as he did, but Taylor Fisher takes 5lbs off him and might give him a chance to finish a bit closer than he did last time.

    Another big price fancy is Kape Moss, who could provide a first Royal winner for Billy Loughnane. He rides for his father David, and claims a crucial 3lbs. Kape Moss may not have top class handicap form, but her last two races have been in listed company, and couldn’t just get to the winner at Haydock last time out. She’s well handicapped, and with a talented rider on board, she could spring a surprise at 28/1 (General).

    Selections:

    14:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) – La Guarida @ 7/1 (Boylesports)

    15:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – Olivia Maralda @ 6/1 (10Bet, Betfred, Boylesports, BetGoodwin)

    15:40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN (NAP) @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK), Kinross e/w @ 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    16:20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – PYLEDRIVER (E/W) @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    17:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – KHANJAR (H’CAP) @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill), First Folio e/w @ 25/1 (General), Kape Moss e/w @ 28/1 (General)

    17:35 – Golden Gates H’cap – Lion Of War @ 6/1 (General)

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    18:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – Stratum @ 5/2 (Unibet, Betfred, BetVictor), Falcon Eight e/w @ 15/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

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    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

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    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

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    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    What a difference a day makes! Royal Ascot Day Two saw Mostahdaf light up the turf and beat the NAP Luxembourg, but not after giving him a mention. And the E/W Bet, Rogue Millennium stepped down in trip and delivered in the Duke of Cambridge. Thursday is Gold Cup Day, but the card isn’t overly attractive. But I’ve managed to dig through to hopefully find some winners on Day Three.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ELDAR TO GRAB THE GOLD

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    NAP: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Named after the famous MMA fighter, Eldar Eldarov has done nothing but impress. Last season he delivered an eye-catching run at the Royal meeting, in the Queen’s Vase which set him up for the St Leger. This season, he’s started rather well. A narrow second at York on firm ground was good prep for this marathon contest. He’s the highest rated horse, which is no surprise. The Gold Cup doesn’t look as sexy as we have had in previous years, and it’s Eldar’s for the taking.

    Keep an eye on Subjectivist, the 2021 winner. He ran a good prep race in the Dubai Gold Cup, which had been his previous prep for the 2021 edition. He’s back from a break of two years, shaped well over in Dubai and can improve from that today. Double figure price at 10/1 (10Bet, BetUK)

    ROYAL RARE-BET

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    E/W BET: Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – Caernarfon @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    I can’t wrap my head around how a top-rated horse, who finished third in the Epsom Oaks, is a double-figure price. She seems so versatile on all sorts of ground with wins on Good, soft, and placed on firm. She drops down two classes from Group One to Group Three, which might be more her level and a slight step back in trip won’t trouble her much. Jack Channon deserves something for training this horse, and hopefully he can get her over the line today.

    DAVID VS ASCOT

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    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Davideo @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    The handicaps today aren’t the best quality fields and I can’t seem to see any horse screaming out at me to make a case. Apart from Davideo. Surprisingly, recent winners haven’t come from the famous London Gold Cup, and tend to be found coming out of maidens. He has form finishing behind Mostabshir at Kempton, but hosed up at Newmarket on reappearance this season. He’s been given a fair mark of 92 and wide draw on the round course isn’t necessarily a bad thing

    Land Legend just caught my eye in this race. Chesspiece didn’t’ win his race yesterday and didn’t back up the form, but after turning to turf his form looks to have improved. A win and a second isn’t to be sniffed at, and a two-pound rise is lenient and puts him at a decent mark for the race. Each-way claims at 16/1 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Elite Status @ 11/8 (General)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – DAVIDEO @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Land Legend @ 16/1 e/w (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Al Asifah @ 8/13 (Betfred, BetUK)

    16:20 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV (NAP) @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    17:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Fort Vega @ 16/1 (General), Ramazan @ 25/1 (General) – Both e/w

    17:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – CAERNARFON @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    18:10 – Buckingham Palace H’cap – Northern Express @ 16/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Day One at Royal Ascot wasn’t a great day for the column. The NAP landed, when Paddington hacked up in the feature, but Bring On The Night got trapped and Cuban Thunder was never involved. But Royal Ascot is very much a marathon and Day Two should start to turn the tide.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    MOORE MOORE MOORE

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    NAP: Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)

    A treble for Ryan Moore yesterday took his total winners at the Royal meeting to 76 yesterday, after an astonishing treble on River Tiber, Paddington and Vauban. A £1 treble would have paid out £15.20, which shows the pull of the almost-40-year-old jockey. Today he rides Luxembourg, who’s been tipped in my Four To Follow column, when he won the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He led all the way, fending off Bay Bridge in the latter stages and there’s nothing to say he can do it again from stall one on the round course.

    Keep an eye out for Mostahdaf, who is unbeaten off a 50+ day break, and is making his UK reappearance, and seems to have a good draw on the wide outside in draw six. Both Jim Crowley and the Gosdens’ seem to have gone under in terms of winners, but this horse has to have been strategically aimed at this race, and is Group One level with a rating of 121, 2lbs lower than Luxembourg. Completely the wrong price at 20/1 (General).

    A ROYAL ROGUE

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    E/W BET: Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    I like Prosperous Voyage, and there is much debate about what the ground will be by 3:40 in the afternoon. Prosperous Voyage loves the firm ground, but any cut and she’s vulnerable. Given Ascot had a storm yesterday, it puts me off her. The next best rated is Rogue Millennium. She’s had decent form figures since the turn of the new season, 232, narrowly beaten at York last time out on the firm ground. She won’t mind the ground, and Group Two is at her true level and she’ll give Jumbly a true test on the straight track.

    AN INTELLOGENT BET

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    Handicap Best: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Intellogent @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Perotto is the favourite, and every punter has said in every preview ‘Perotto is my bet of the week.’ Well, well done tipsters he’s now 7/1. So, it tempts me to look elsewhere. I looked underneath Perotto in the betting and Intellogent stood out. Ran a stormer last year off 105, and lost by half a length. He’s rated 104 this  and that mark that makes him appealing; he’s versatile on all grounds; and, he’s drawn one off the stand side rail in 31. James Doyle has a nice 26% strike rate to back it up.

    Ghaly also caught the eye. Not just in the formbook, but when I saw him in person at York last year. He kept on in a four-runner handicap at York, beating Blue For You by a neck, which was his second run off a massive break. He then beat King Of Conquest, and the race threw up great formlines. He’s on the other side f the track in stall eight, but Saeed bin Suroor had hit a sweet spot, and Oisin Murphy is always eye-catching. Next best at 10/1 (William Hill)

    Chasing Aphrodite also gave off good each-way vibes. Won the trial for this race at the Trials meeting, and the handicapper has raised him four pounds for a length-and-a-half win. Versatile ground-wise, with wins on Good and Good-to-firm ground and Hayley Turner always turns up at Royal Ascot. Prepare for an excitable Ed Chamberlain if Hayley’s victorious. Decent claims at 16/1 (William Hill)

    One more for the Hunt Cup, and Dunum represents good Irish form. Narrowly beaten when favourite in the Emerald Mile, but has been consistent throughtou his career. 1111212 read his form figures and a 4lbs rise will mean nothing to him, having defied 6lb and 9lbs rises before. Bookies have the main Irish raider at 14/1 (10Bet, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two) – Got To Love A Grey @ 10/1 (General), Bundchen e/w @ 16/1 (General)
    15:05 – Kensington Palace Fillies’ H’cap – Adelaise @ 7/1 (General)
    15:40 – Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Jumbly @ 9/4 (General), ROGUE MILLENNIUM E/W @ 12/1 (Betfred)
    16:20 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG (NAP) @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)
    17:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – INTELLOGENT @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill), Ghaly (10/1) Chasing Aphrodite (16/1) & Dunum (14/1) all e/w
    17:35 – Queen’s Vase (Group Two) – Peking Opera @ 6/1 (General)
    18:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Bombay Bazaar @ 10/1 (General)
  • Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s that time of year. The sun is shining, the suits are hired, it must be Royal Ascot. Top hats galore and top-class action from all around the world. Australia and America join in today, along with British and Irish. Day One is set to be a cracker. Here are my selections and naps for the one of the best meetings of the Summer.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    PADDINGTON TO BEAR THE BRUNT

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    NAP: St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    There are many races this week which punters are saying are ‘the races of the week’. This is one of them, with the English and Irish Guineas winners facing off. Chaldean is 3lbs higher than his Irish counter-part, 119 to 116. But there is one thing that lets the Frankel colt down. The draw. Since the turn of the millennium, four winners have come from stall one. Many horses are boxed in on the rail and haven’t room to move. Paddington is drawn wide in eight, and if he can get a better start he had in the Irish Guineas, he’ll be hard to get past. Read more on his chances on Best Of Bets.

    Keep an eye out for Indestructible, the Craven winner. He’s already tipped up on Best of Bets, and he isn’t without hope. He underperformed in the English Guineas but has been kept fresh for this race. Firm ground will suit him, given he won by five-and-a-half lengths as a two-year-old on the surface, and a good outside draw in stall nine. 50/1 (General) seems overpriced.

    And don’t discount Isaac Shelby, who’s a decent each-way price of 9/1 (General). He won the Greenham Stakes, where Chaldean unseated. He almost made up for it when narrowly losing in the French Guineas. The ground will be a little firmer, and could go well, with a half-decent draw in stall three.

    PERFECT STORM IN THE COVENTRY

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    E/W BET: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Cuban Thunder @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)

    I feel Cuban Thunder is overlooked. He’s experienced enough with two races under his belt, including a win last time out, which came in the Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes. Lusail, Repartee and Queen Olly are recent winners of the race who haven’t had bad careers since then. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a good record when prepping Amo Racing’s two-year-olds. Kevin Stott has chosen to ride Bucanero Fuerte, but Rossa Ryan isn’t a bad substitute. Stand-side draw might be where the winners come on the straight course this week, worth to keep an eye on.

    MOORE AND MULLINS TO BRING IT

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    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Bring On The Night @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Willie Mullins is operating at a 57% strike rate. Over the jumps, in the off season. He’s a genius. He has a good record at the Royal meeting as well with four winners in this race. Those four winners came in a period of six years between 2012 – 2018. Ryan Moore was on three of them. Moore is currently operating at a 33% strike rate and has also won leading rider at Royal Ascot nine times. Bring On The Night has been raised 4lbs since last year’s second, and hasn’t been seen since. Bring on the Ascot Stakes I say!

    Keep an eye out for Themaxwecan who loves the firmer ground. He raced in last year’s race, finishing midfield off a mark of 97. After that race he went and won a race at Ascot over two miles on firm ground with Jamie Spencer on board. This time he’s 92, 5lbs lower than last year’s mark. He hasn’t got a great record over two miles, but with a good mark and good conditions he could certainly get a place at 40/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Modern Games @ 9/4 (Unibet, William Hill), Chindit e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Givemethebeatboys @ 4/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK), CUBAN THUNDER E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
    15:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Highfield Princess @ 5/2 (Unibet), Twilight Gleaming e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

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    16:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON (NAP) @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor), Indestructible e/w @ 50/1 (General)
    17:00 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) BRING ON THE NIGHT @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill), Themaxwecan e/w @ 40/1 (General)
    17:35 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Francesco Clemente @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor)
    18:10 – Copper Horse Handicap – Absurde @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • ITV Racing Best Bets – The Top Three

    ITV Racing Best Bets – The Top Three

    Although we are in the no man’s land between the Derby and Royal Ascot, ITV Racing are heading to Haydock to cover a decent day at the northern track.

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    The racing isn’t vintage, yes, but there are some standout bets for this week’s The Top Three column.

    But first, let’s review last week.

     

    Derby Weekend Review

    It’s the fourth week of the series and with 22.40 points of profit from 23 points staked at a ROI of 97%, I am feeling happy about how things have gone.

    Last week saw PROSPEROUS VOYAGE (7/4) made it two from two for the best bets over the last two weeks and thanks to a good second from SILVER SWORD (12/1) in the Lester Piggott Handicap, last week produced a profit of 5.65 points after we staked one point on WAIPIRO (20/1) in the Derby.

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    It’s been a good first three weeks and we are looking ahead to Haydock on ITV Racing to continue the run going.

     

    1:15 Haydock – EQUILATERAL at 3/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    Two weeks ago, DRAMATISED represented the best bet of the week in the Temple Stakes and this week, the runner-up from that day will be the same in the Listed Achilles Stakes.

    He was the flag bearer in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis article at 5/1 and even though he is now 3/1 with William Hill, I’m still with EQUILATERAL in the opener.

    Two weeks ago, the advantageous high-draw bias at Haydock helped Charlie Hills’ Equiano gelding and out of stall 10 this Saturday, that same thing could occur again.

    Also, he gave 11 pounds away to the winner last time out when unfancied in the market and Frankie Dettori gave him an easy-enough ride having only used the whip twice before a hands and heels ride in the final three-quarters of a furlong.

    It will be tough to stop Lanfranco and EQUILATERAL in the opener on Saturday and he is the best bet of the ITV Racing action.

     

    1:50 Haydock – SILVER SAMURAI at 8/1 with BetVictor – 1.5pt EW

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    I’m going to the following race for my next bet and SILVER SAMURAI looks a good price at 8/1 on BetVictor.

    The Cable Bay six-year-old is a Haydock winner as well as placing over a mile at the course in June 2020 so the track will suit.

    Looking at more recent form, Marco Botti’s competitor last won in May 2022 on good ground off a three-pound lower mark, a day where he bolted up under Ben Curtis in facile fashion.

    He improved to a mark of 97 after the victory, but following two mediocre runs in May of this year, he now has an official rating of 95.

    Despite Botti’s poor run of form recently, the 8/1 with BetVictor is a good price and he will be tough to beat if back to his best.

     

    3:35 Haydock – JUMBY at 11/4 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    How many times can a horse who finished second-last in a 12-runner race impress you?

    The answer to that question is not many. However, that did occur in the Lockinge and because of that, amongst other reasons, I will be backing JUMBY at 11/4 with William Hill in the John Of Gaunt Stakes.

    Looking at the Lockinge alone where the five-lowest drawn horses finished 8th, 10th, 11th, and 12th, the New Bay entire (drawn four) was running a great race for seven furlongs of the Group 1 contest before fading late in which was his second-ever race at a mile.

    Therefore, the return to seven furlongs this weekend will suit well having won three times at the trip, all on quick ground.

    Furthermore, in his season-opener at Newmarket, he missed the break catastrophically and stayed on well over six furlongs when beaten by three lengths.

    Saturday’s feature at Haydock is the weakest field he would have faced since his third in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket eight runs ago and with race fitness and conditions on his side, Eve Johnson Houghton’s stable star has a great chance to start his season off well.

  • Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    After a Frankie Friday, it’s the big day on the Downs. Derby Day. It’s one of the most unpredictable yet. Arrest went into favouritism last night, but is he the one to win the big race? And who will win the the Dash? All those questions will be answered, as we take a look at four of the Best Bets on Derby Day.

    12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Kolasi @ 3/1

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    The aperitif to the Derby is the Diomed. And it doesn’t look the best of renewals, but Kolasi looks the best horse in the race. She is the only three-year-old, and is receiving a lot of weight from her rivals. Her form from four starts suggests that she’ll like the firm ground, and that she can handle undulation. There are plenty of unknowns and this is a step up in class. But the field, on paper at least, don’t look the best quality and are there for the taking.

    1:30 – BETFRED DERBY (GROUP ONE) – DUBAI MILE @ 18/1

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    The more I Iook at this horse, the more I think he’s overpriced. He’s a Group One winner as a two-year-old, beating Arrest by a head, and he’s versatile to the ground. On ratings, he’s only behind Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Charlie Johnston has been firing in the winners and has an excellent strike rate. Plus, Ahmad Al Shaikh, the owner, has had a decent record in the last three Derby’s, including Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal. His breeding suggests he’ll fall short of this trip, but Johnston horses always dig deep and can push further. The Dam’s sire was High Chapparal, so he does have some Epsom blood running though him. He has a decent draw in stall five, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I also like White Birch, for John Joseph Murphy. He lost by a neck to The Foxes at York and on the replay, he seems to be the one to take out of the race. Passenger looked to be staying on late, but didn’t seem to carry on much after the winning post. The Foxes looked to tough it out over the trip and not go much further. White Birch looks to be the one to take out. He’s by Ulysees, which means he will stay. His half-brother stays 1m 3F, which suggests he’ll get the trip. He’ll have to overcome a tricky-ish draw in stall two, but he looks to be one to watch at an each-way price of 12/1.

    Personally, I think the principles are hyped up. Auguste Rodin finished 12th of 14 in the Guineas. That’s the worst result of a Derby trial for any horse. How can he be deemed favourite? Favourites also have a terrible record in the Derby, in recent years. Aidan O’Brien can work miracles, but after such a disappointing run, he can’t be trusted. Arrest ran well at Chester, and he has the Frankie factor, but the ground is massively against him. John Gosden said Arrest will need a lot of rain overnight. He won’t get it.

    Which means by default, Military Order gets the nod. His stamina will be tested on firm ground, but he is a full brother to Adayar, and that points him in the right direction to win. But I think the ground might catch him out. He’ll certainly have a crack at the top three, so he gets in the tricast.

    Tricast: Dubai Mile, White Birch, Military Order

    2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Prosperous Voyage @ 11/8

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    Prosperous Voyage may not have returned well, but everything seems to be in her favour here. She relishes firm ground, she’s a course winner and the top-rated horse. She will have blown the cobwebs away at Newmarket and should be back to her best at Epsom and Frankie will make amends for Derby disappointment.

    3:20 – Epsom DASH (Heritage Handicap) – Clarendon House @ 15/2

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    It’s a little bit of a lottery the Epsom Dash, and it’s the same this year. But it seems the stars have aligned for this horse. Stall two has proven to be a good draw over the years, he’ll be right up with the pace, and has won five times on firm ground. The stable are starting to turn a corner with a winner last Friday and a second during the week, and Danny Muscutt may be riding on a high from his Derby heroics. If not, he’ll want to win this race. The form from the York dash played out last week, with Mondammej just beaten narrowly by Chipstead. It could work wonders here.

    Each-way plays are the way to go for the Dash, and Lihou is one of them. Middle to high draws are the favoured places to be, Lihou is drawn in 18. Plus, he is at an advantage, winning at C&D earlier this season at the Riband meeting. That was on soft ground, but he can perform on firmer. He’s also, only 2lbs higher than that win in April, and is running fresh off a narrow second at Goodwood. A good play at 12/1.

    Another play is Look Out Louis who has things in his favour over the flying five. In September, he won in similar conditions over the five furlongs at Haydock, and is only one pound higher than that winning mark. He looks to have blown the cobwebs away since the Chester run, and can be back to his best on the Downs, from a decent draw in six, at 12/1.

    The very best of luck on Derby Day!

    (And, Come On United for the FA Cup!!)

    All prices are from Betfred, proud sponsors of the Epsom Derby

  • 2023 Betfred Derby Festival: 14/1 Epsom punt fancied by ITV pundits

    2023 Betfred Derby Festival: 14/1 Epsom punt fancied by ITV pundits

    As June blazes in, summer classic season hits top gear with this weekend’s Betfred Derby Festival at Epsom.

    In a month which concludes with Royal Ascot, first, the 1m4f trip on the Downs takes top billing.

    With 15 races sandwiched into the card, we’ve picked three to feature at varying prices.

     

    Friday 16:30 Betfred Oaks, Soul Sister – 11/4

    Beginning with Friday’s Oaks, Running Lion‘s form is impressive but without a drop of rain, Soul Sister is the filly for us.

    As Frankie Dettori galloped away to win the Musidora at York last month, the 14/1 SP of John and Thady Gosden’s promising lady was left in tatters.

    Romping away on turf that had at last firmed up, too much was placed on her form from Newbury.

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    Instead, a debut winner at Doncaster last October, the youngster proved she can handle the soft ground, but will much prefer the going good.

    Everything points to said Epsom going being Good to Firm this weekend and Soul Sister has the groove at 11/4 with William Hill.

     

    Saturday 13:30: Betfred Epsom Derby, White Birch – 14/1

    Turning to the Festival’s main event, whilst Auguste Rodin, Military Order and Passenger are jousting to be Derby favourite, White Birch is very much still our long-price fancy.

    And we have sound company in our pick.

    Indeed, ITV Racing duo Francesca Cumani and Leonna Mayor have been vocal in their support in JJ Murphy‘s pretender to the Derby crown.

    In his last outing, the colt was a storming runner-up to The Foxes in The Dante and with a few extra furlongs could have taken the win.

    A double winner on Irish turf his two races prior, he will be keen again to put a show on British soil.

    The son of Ulysses – a Juddmonte winner himself in 2016 – White Birch has the pedigree to perform on the big stage.

    At a still very tasty 14/1 with BoyleSports, the grey looks excellent value.

     

    Saturday 14:10: Princess Elizabeth Stakes, Astral Beau – 8/1

    Finally, we move to the following race on the card, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes with a good e/w consideration for Astral Beau.

    Now targeting races just over the 1m mark, the 4yo travelled well to place third in the Howden last time out.

    Of more significance perhaps, the mount of Shane Foley was a winner over the slightly shorter distance in the Doncaster Mile earlier this spring.

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    Still preferring 7f, Astral Beau has nevertheless won four of her last six  – placing in all outings.

    We just get the feeling trainer Pam Sly could be on to a good thing here.

    The four-length winning margin in Yorkshire proved there could be a stayer in this horse yet, at 8/1 with 888Sport.