Best Of Bets

Tag: ITV Racing

  • Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    After the Goodwood rain comes the Curragh sun. Regular racing is back for a couple of weeks, and it’s that time of the season where the attention begins to turn to the youngsters, as the first 2-Y-O Group One, the Phoenix Stakes, takes place over in Ireland. There’s also juvenile action from Newmarket, and interesting renewal of the Rose of Lancaster in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Shar To Dash

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    3:25 – Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Shartash @ 9/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood Surprisingly this season, the British have dominated group sprint races at the Curragh.

    Commanche Falls and Art Power are the two who have lit up Ireland’s premier flat course. But Shartash isn’t without hope. The allowance is crucial for him and allows her to become one of the highest rated horses in the race, and the better ground may suit him better.

    He may be drawn in the centre of the track, but he’s surrounded by plenty of pace, which should give him a nice gallop to latch on to.

     

    Unanswered Questions

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    4:40 – Phoenix Stakes (Group One) – Unquestionable @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Both Bucanero Fuente and Unquestionable deserved to have another go at each other again. It was a fantastic race with only a head separating them in the Railway Stakes. Both sons of Wootton Bassett look inseparable, but I think Unquestionable can reverse the result from last time out.

    Firstly, Unquestionable is drawn nearer to the stand-side rail, and it’s quite hard from a horse in stall one to make the journey over to grab it. There’s a good pace angle from Givemethebeatboys on Unquestionable’s outside, and if he gets over to the rail there’s a pacemaker for Bucanero Fuente to latch on to.

    Finally, the Phoenix Stakes dictate that Aidan O’Brien is never far away from the winner’s enclosure, with 17 wins in the race, including with the recently retired Little Big Bear last year.

     

    Newmarket

    Scorch The Turf

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    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Carolina Reaper @ 4/1 (General)

    Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the last ten years. In fact his record since 2014 is 1211231, with no runners in ‘16 & ’17. That’s a strike rate of 71% in the race for nine years. Carolina Reaper is this year’s offering from the Johnston team and looks really attractive.

    She finally broke her maiden in style last time out over C&D, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. Form-wise, the second came and won next time out at Lingfield and the third goes in the second race on the same card today.

    The rail helped her on her maiden win, but today she is drawn towards the centre of the track. She does have pace to latch on to in the stall to her outside, and in form jockey with Jack Mitchell can see her over the line.

     

    Haydock

    Shady Customer

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    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Midnight Mile @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Fillies haven’t got a great record in this race. In fact, a filly hasn’t won this race since Braiswick in 1989, 34 years ago. Surely this year will buck the trend when the exciting Midnight Mile is introduced.

    She won stylishly at York last time out, and the ground will be perfect for her this time around. A hefty allowance will put her up as one of the highest rated, and Oisin Orr is one of the jockeys to keep an eye on with a 22% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    We’ve had some bad luck in the past couple of days. But now we know; the ground will be soft on Friday, and yesterday’s racing showed where the better ground is. Blue Rose Cen couldn’t find a gap as all the jockeys poured to the far side rail to deny her a British Group One. But that was yesterday, and today we are back, with four more at Goodwood.

     

    SITTIN’ ON THE DOCK

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    2:25 – Thoroughbred Stakes (Group Three) – Docklands @ 9/2 (General)

    Docklands has been on an upwards trajectory this season. Winning the Brittania at Royal Ascot meant he climbed up the weights again and now finds himself in group company. However, it was over soft ground where he made his biggest impact, winning by six-and-a-half lengths at Ascot in May.

    And he won’t mind the sharpness of the Goodwood track, having conquered Kempton and lost by a neck at Haydock as a two-year-old. With Nostrum odds-on, and he has never raced on ground softer than good, he makes perfect sense.

    Keep an eye on Jessie Harrington’s Bold Discovery in stall four, as he has performed well at similar levels on soft/heavy ground over in Ireland, and 14/1 (General) looks too big of a price.

     

    WE’VE GONE AWAAL

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    3:00 – Golden Mile H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Simon & Ed Crisford have had a very quiet season, but they’ve a well-handicapped runner here. Awaal has a great record on soft/heavy ground, running in second in the Lincoln in March. He then went on to finish third in his next two British races, and now has a useful claimer on board in Harry Davies. Cheeckpieces are on him for the first time, which will sharpen him up and give him a solid chance, if he can overcome stall 12 and get to the far side in the straight.

    David O’Meara has a great record in the Golden Mile, winning two out of the last three. And he is determined to keep that record going with six runners in the race. The one I’m siding with is Bopedro. He’s been racing over seven furlongs in the first half of the season, but steps up to a mile when the ground has got softer. His mark of 100 might not be a winning one, but conditions are suitable for him to be up there at the finish, and a solid each-way chance at 20/1 (Boylesports).

    There’s also some chance for Johan, making his seasonal reappearance. It seems the conditions haven’t been ideal for him, and now William Haggas has felt the time is right. Whilst Lattam takes the limelight, Johan could run similar to his 2022 Lincoln win which came off a pound lower than his mark today. 28/1 (William Hill) is a steal of a price.

     

    THE GOODWOOD SPRINT QUEEN

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    3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group Two) – Highfield Princess @ 10/11 (General)

    Highfield Princess is a top quality horse. But she hasn’t been showing it on bare form. But she was unlucky up at York, and both runs at Ascot. The drop down in class will help, and the soft ground won’t be a problem to her. She’s drawn near the pace in stall three, with Ponntos in stall five. With Highfield Princess drawn near towards where the better ground may be, she has fantastic chance to get her first win of the season.

    Keep an eye out for Nymphadora, who is improving all the time, and showed her class at Sandown. Soft ground won’t be a problem, and can make a good step up in class and keep improving. 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) is a cracking price.

     

    SCOTCH IN SUSSEX

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    4:10 – L’Ormarins King’s Plate Glorious Stakes (Group Three) – Hamish @ 4/5 (General)

    Hamish avoided the clash of the generations last week, and has opted to come here. Which gives him a much better chance, and his ideal conditions. Hopefully it won’t be long before we see him step up to Group Two’s and One’s later this season.

    Finishing in behind him, Epictetus has got first time cheeckpieces on, and should relish this lower grade, and softer conditions are good to him, even though he ran a stellar race at York on good-to-firm.

    And Epic Poet was a consistent runner in France, before moving to Freddie and Martyn Meade’s. His run at Newbury was a bit of blow out, but could bounce back over a further trip on soft ground and a sharper test at Goodwood.

    Those three could make a valuable tricast.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

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    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

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    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

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    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

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    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day One

    What a Saturday for Four To Follow.

    Three winners, at big prices, it couldn’t have gone much better. It sets up a fantastic week for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival, a midsummer’s treat.

    Here are four to look out for from both sides of the Irish Sea.

     

    Goodwood

    Hot Hot Hot

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    3:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – Iberian @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Vintage Stakes is always throwing up some useful two-year-olds.

    Highland Reel, Expert Eye and Pinatubo have all won this race in recent years. But the best thing is not one outfit has dominated the race, which makes the betting heat wide open.

    I’ve chosen Iberian because I liked what I saw when he won on debut, travelling smartly to the two pole when everyone around him was being hurried, and looked very professional.

    Charlie Hills isn’t going well at the moment, but he seems to have a knack with his two-year-olds, who have delivered a £27.50 profit to a £1 stake. The horse itself is out of Lope De Vega, so shouldn’t have a problem getting the seven furlong trip.

     

    Keen On Ross

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    4:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 5/4 (General)

    I love Kinross. I loved him at the back-end of last season when he won three seven-furlong races on the spin. It is his true trip.

    He won the Lennox two years ago, fending off Creative Force by a neck, on soft ground. He then got chinned himself when losing to Sandrine last year on good ground.

    With the ground expected to be soft, and Frankie on board, I’m expecting another big performance from Kinross, and maybe we might see a repeat of last year’s feat.

     

    Don’t Rane On His Parade

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    4:35 – Goodwood Cup (Group One) – Coltrane @ 10/3 (Unibet)

    Courage Mon Amis was extremely impressive at Royal Ascot. Extremely impressive.

    He’s unbeaten and is ridden and trained by that familiar partnership of Dettori and Gosden. He’s also won at Goodwood this season in preparation for the Gold Cup.

    Why am I against him? Purely on experience and ground. He’s 4/4 and, like the Gold Cup, he’s up against some experienced rivals.

    Coltrane is his nearest challenger and just couldn’t produce over the 2m 4F trip last time out. This time it’s a fairer two-mile trip and Coltrane loves a bit of juice. It’s hard to know what the favourite likes as his two wins on turf have come on good-to-firm ground. Coltrane represents far better value, and can finally show off his Group One potential.

    To follow him in, I’m expecting Giavelloto to be up there. Marco Botti deliberately avoided the Gold Cup and has decided to come here. He’s versatile with the ground, so that’s not a problem and Andrea Atzeni is no jockey to be sniffed at, given his two wins on Stardivarius here.

    He won the Yorkshire Cup, which is always a good early season test, and that little loinger lay-off will have him in good nick for the contest. 14/1 (William Hill) is a perfect price.

     

    Galway

    A Nice Cup For Joe

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    6:40 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile (Premier H’cap) – Joe Masseria @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    The first big highlight of the Galway Festival is the mile handicap, which is 1m 123yds.

    Last year’s winner, Soaring Monarch is rightly at the top of the betting for being set up for this race again, but I’ve decided to go down a more active route.

    Joe Masseria is a soft ground specialist and a Galway C&D winner. He finished third on yielding ground, but that was after a break of the track since the early spring. It was a good set up for this race which looks tailor-made for him. Colin Keane is back on board, and he has a 2/3 record aboard him so looks set for another big performance.

    Gavin Cromwell has a runner in the race that looks as though he has been targeted since the end of the jumps season. Mister Wilson is a C&D winner and also loves the soft ground. A mark of 83 shouldn’t trouble him at all, after narrowly losing to twice winner of the Mile handicap Saltonstall, at Tipperary. He looks a big price at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    And it wouldn’t be an Irish premier handicap without a battalion of Adrian McGuinness’ taking up nearly half the field.

    Celtic Crown catches the eye with claimer James Ryan aboard, who has a 12% strike rate which isn’t bad for a jockey with a seven-pound allowance. That takes his mark down to 84, which is a big winning mark for after he won the Emerald Mile at the Curragh in 2022 off the same mark.

    Conditions might suit, although if the ground stays heavy on the West Coast of Ireland, be wary. Small stakes at 22/1 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Doing A Rain Dance

    Whilst Europe is baking, we’re stuck with typical British Summer rain. But that’s not all bad, as there are some cracking bets to be had on a subdued Saturday. Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh, whilst Newbury and Market Rasen are the focus in the UK. Here is this week’s four to follow.

     

    Newbury

    SHADWELL SHOW

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    15:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Ehraz @ 12/1 (General)

    Shadwell have had a great record in the race in recent times, winning four out of the last ten. Jim Crowley knows his way around a decent Shadwell sprinter, and has also won this race four times. Blinkers are on for the first time, which can be seen as a positive in a decent sized field like this. And a nice middle draw should also suit nicely. With the rain on its way, it ticks another box for Ehraz as his best record comes on ground worse than good to firm. For Lezoo backers, she doesn’t have a great record on ground worse than good-to-firm, which is a big concern for me.

     

    Market Rasen

    AN OLD FAVORUITE

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    15:15 – Summer Plate H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Francky Du Berlais @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    It’s great to see a bit of Summer jumps action at Market Rasen, and at Cartmel too, and it’s also great to see a familiar name in their premier race. Francky Du Berlais has won this race for the previous two years, and won a right ding-dong against La Domaniale last year. La Domaniale is up 12 pounds from last year’s nose-off, but has improved massively since then and is a fair mark. Whereas Francky hasn’t won since, and goes off a mark one pound higher than last year’s winning mark. But he loves the track, and seems to come into his own in the Summer months. It could be a legendary three-peat for a legendary horse.

    Keep an eye out for Killer Clown, who came third off the back of a wind operation for the Emma Lavelle team. He suits the profile of a Summer horse, preferring good ground throughout the Winter, and his mark of 138 will suit him, condiering he came second in the Greatwood Gold Cup off the same. A nice 12/1 shot (10Bet, BetUK)

     

    Curragh

    WILD WEATHER

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    14:35 – Scurry Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Hurricane Ivor @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    There are two good reason why I’ve gone with this horse. One is because of the name, keeping the theme of the weather. And the other is because of this horse’s record in the rain. It has won five races out of 13 on ground ranging between good-to-soft and heavy, which isn’t a bad strike rate for a sprinter. His previous two starts at the Curragh have reulted in a win and a third, before not taking to the ground in the Wokingham. The other thing is that he is off a workable mark of 99 and a nice inside draw in four. There are lot of positives to this horse, even with the weather.

    Another horse who likes the rain is Blairmayne. His last two starts have been on soft/heavy ground and have resulted in a win and a tight third. He sprung up the handicap from a mark of 82 to 89, but is back to a mark of 85 and Blairmayne can take full advantage. Wide draws, aren’t necessarily a bad thing at the Curragh either. 14/1 is a fair each-way shout (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

     

    DANCING IN THE RAIN

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    15:45 – IRISH OAKS (GROUP ONE) – SAVETHELASTDANCE @ EVENS (BetVictor)

    The simple fact is on her four starts, three of them have come on soft to heavy ground and she has won two of them. She won one of them at Chester by 22 lengths, she ran a great race despite finishing second to Soul Sister, who didn’t back up the form in the Grand Prix de Paris. She has everything in her favour, including three stablemates to guard her so she can waltz home and pick up Aidan O’Brien’s third classic of the season.

    Azazat could be worth a punt on the without market. She has also won on soft to heavy ground and wasn’t too far behind Savethelastdance at Leopardstown. She is by a Derby winner, so there is no worry about the trip and could have won the Munster Oaks if she wasn’t bumped at the finish by Rosscarberry. She’s tough and might get a place if she’s lucky. 14/1 (William Hill) is her best price outright.

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow: Super Saturday

     

    It’s one of the busiest, craziest and most hectic days of the racing calendar. It’s Super Saturday. Newmarket, York, Ascot, even Chester, have big races on offer.

    Including the July Cup, Bunbury Cup and the John Smith’s Cup, it’s a punters’ paradise. Let’s take you through the three big meetings, and find the Best Bets.

     

    Newmarket

    Truth Be Told

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    15:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – Great Truth @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    This is one of the top two-year-old races of the season, and Godolphin have a great record in recent years. Native Trail and Master Of The Seas came from this race, and we all know what Native Trail did as a three-year-old. He has staying pedigree on both sides of his family, which won’t be a problem staying seven furlongs at two.

    On his debut, he was a little green at Leicester, but he won with plenty in hand, and you can’t discount a 5-and-a-half-length win. On past trends, and breeding, Great Truth has sold me.

     

    Two Blessed

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    16:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Bless Him @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Bless Him is now a nine-year-old, and has bucked the trends for this race as winners usually are between four and six. But he can still hack it at the top level, with an encouraging fifth in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. And he is only two pounds higher than his winning mark in last year’s race.

    It’s worth noting that Jamie Spencer is not riding on Saturday, so Callum Shepherd gets the leg up.

    Star Of Orion has been quite a consistent horse this season, with two seconds at the start of the season. But Ralph Beckett seems to have laid him out for this race, electing not to go to Royal Ascot, and keeps his handicap mark at 92. Which is six pounds lower than last season’s mark.

    He’s versatile on all grounds, and is good value each-way player at 12/1 (General)

     

    Little Too Big

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    16:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 4/1 (General)

    When the odds came out for the race, I was shocked that Little Big Bear was at 4/1.

    He got beat at Ascot, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad horse. He’s a super sprinter! In fact he does have a good omen on his side, most recent winners have come from the Commonwealth Cup, but they didn’t win it.

    Only Muhuraar has done the double, which doesn’t put Shaquille in a good spot. Plus the allowance that Little Big Bear is getting, puts him as the best rated horse in the race. For me, I wouldn’t be surprised if punters take advantage of this, and he’s backed down.

     

    York

    Saturday Spirit

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    15:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Spirit Dancer @ 9/1 (General)

    This year’s edition of the John Smith’s Cup is probably one of the best.

    Each horse has strong claims, but I’ve gone for a regular at York. Spirit Dancer has been in the top four for the past five races, and his rating has only gone up five pounds in that period. He loves the firm ground, although the weather may set in at the weekend, as heavy showers are forecast. But he is versatile, as he can run well on good-to-soft ground.

    Northern trainers always do well at York, particularly Richard Fahey, and he will have had this race in mind since he came fourth in last year’s renewal.

    I also like the chances of Millebosc, who makes his reappearance on the track after 227 days. Horses who have been off the track have won the past three renewals of this race, and Haggas will have set out this horse for the race.

    He’s only had one run in the UK, a fifth on the Lingfield all-weather. His record shows that his only win came on debut, but he did come third in a Prix du Jockey Club, behind St. Mark’s Basilica, so his Group  form could come through. 12/1 (General) is a respectable price.

     

    Ascot

    The Mighty Mighty

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    14:20 – Summer Mile (Group Two) – Mighty Ulysees @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    Another horse who has been laid off the track is Mighty Ulysees. He came ever so close in last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes, but didn’t kick on in his final two starts. Now he’s back, and he is rated as one of the best in the field, which must be taken note. He’s drawn wide, which shouldn’t be a problem for Robert Havlin. He can land another big Saturday winner for the Gosdens, who are operating at a 29% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day Two

     

    A disappointing Day One for Four To Follow, but we aim to make it up in the next two days, as TWO Group Ones’ rattle towards us. Here are my tips for Day Two at the July Festival.

     

    Newmarket

    Seen It, Did It

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    13:50 – bet365 Heritage Handicap – Seendid @ 15/2 (BetVictor, 10Bet)

    William Haggas and Tom Marquand are having a, somewhat, quiet season. But I feel they’ve laid this horse out perfectly for its big test. Seendid is by Dubawi and is out of a middle-distance mare, so has plenty of stamina. He also has crucial course and distance experience, after breaking his maiden on the July course at the back-end of June. He made all that day, but given that there are a few more horses to contest with, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marquand drops him in behind the leader and lead the rest home in the straight. He’s good value too at the top of the market.

    And don’t knock off Knockbrex for Charlie Johnston. His father Mark has an incredible record in the race, winning the race four times on the spin between 2013and 2016. He then won it in 2020 with Zabeel Champion. I’m sure Charlie will have heeded some advice from his father, and Knockbrex will not be without hope. Winning from the front can be done on the July course, ask Seendid. If he learns to settle, he’ll be a good each-way shout, especially with some past form behind Royal Ascot winner Gregory, at 10/1 (General)

     

    Dream of a Win

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    15:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Live Your Dream @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Live Your Dream has almost been a revelation since returning to the track. Placed twice, including a second at the Royal meeting, you feel he’ll be too much class for the field in this race. On pure ratings, he’s the only horse rated at 104 which is top weight. But class horses can defy the top weight, and he has been improving all the time. Today should be his day to shine.

    One at a better price is Ravens Ark. He’s a quite a consistent stayer, with two seconds to his name already this season. He seems to be versatile on all grounds, and a mark of 81 is only a pound higher than his previous winning one. It’s a bit of a disappointing ‘heritage handicap’, but Ravens Ark represents some value at 11/1 (General)

     

    Remarkable July

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    15:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Remarquee @ 4/1 (General)

    I’ve always viewed this race as a bit of a faux pas Group One. It hasn’t been won by the greats in recent times, and I can’t imagine we’ll see a great come out of this race either. But Remarquee does stand out to me. She was only a length behind Tahiyra at Ascot, which is a big result considering how the race panned out. She gets a nine pound allowance, which will be massively beneficial to her. Via Sistina is a good horse, but the ground will come into question. And it’ll be interesting to see Nashwa stepping down in trip for her reappearance, and I think the Gosdens will be looking to the Nassau, and this is just a prep race. That makes Remarquee the stand out for me.

     

    York

    Swinging In Summer

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    15:40 – Summer Stakes (Group Three) – Swingalong @ 15/8 (General)

    Swingalong is back at the scene of her last win, in the Lowther. York over six furlongs was a great match for Swingalong, and Karl Burke will know that. She is a high-class filly, and could easily turn into a top rated sprinter, given she also finished third in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot. And with 14 winners so far in July for Burke, this race could not come at a better time for an in-form stable. I’m surprised she’s odds against, frankly.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day One

     

    After a brief break, Four To Follow is back, with three days of fantastic racing to be had at Newmarket’s beautiful July course.

    Day One sees the favourites holding all the aces.

     

    Answer a Prayer

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    13:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Saint George @ 11/4 (Unibet)

    Over at the ‘The Top Three’, Ash has stuck with the favourite.

    However, this is the first race that really will test the form. And with Gregory been given an entry in the Goodwood Cup, it seems that the top six may become group horses out of it. It looks positive.

    We know that he gets his staying power out of his dam’s side, and Roaring Lion has had a 13% strike rate of progeny winners this season.

    Tower Of London, faces a steep rise in rating, whilst we know that Saint George can perform at this level, and that’s why he’s my pick.

     

    Summer Breeze

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    14:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Purosangue @ 9/4 (Unibet)

    I first came across this Andrew Balding colt when having a peruse one evening, and found out that I knew this horses mother.

    Avon Breeze ran for the Whitaker stable, who my family still own horses with, and was a fantastic edition to the stable.

    She wasn’t a filly that performed at the top level, but she did win a class two handicap at Ripon in 2016. Her daughter Liberty Breeze also runs for the Whitaker’s, and is having a good season so far.

    I watched Purosangue’s debut and thought that he was a smart horse, and won with plenty in hand. This horse seems to be heading in the right direction, and can prove his class for the Balding team.

     

    Height Of July

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    15:00 – bet365 Heritage H’cap – Washington Heights @ 5/1 (General)

    Sooner or later, this horse has to win a race. He’s got closer to the winning line with each run, being denied by a head on his last run at York.

    He finished second to the now-Group One winner Shaquille at the start of the season, and downed twice by Quinault.

    Firm ground seems to be his preference, which puts me in a difficult position. We won’t’ know how the ground is performing until the first race, because the Newmarket grounds-team are irrigating tonight.

    The ground is officially good to firm at time of writing, but whether it’ll stay that way is an unknown.

    But a big plus for this horse is the booking of Ryan Moore, who has to be the best jockey in the world. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a jockey with a 41% strike rate.

    Eminency is the each-way appeal in the race for me.

    She finished fourth in the same York sprint handicap as Washington Heights, and has only been raised a pound. Once again, ground will be a concern if it’s not firmer ground, but as explained in the first selection, we’re playing the waiting game.

    Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which I always see as a positive, and John Fahy and Clive Cox are both just starting to turn the formbook heading into July. Nice bet at 10/1 (General)

     

    One for the Acca

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    15:40 – Princess of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Adayar @ 1/2 (Boylesports, 10Bet)

    It’s a simple equation really. One is rated nine pounds better than the next best, dropping a grade below, and only has four runners to contend with.

    Israr is the clear threat, but Israr hasn’t performed at Group Two level, let alone win. In fact he hasn’t won a class one race yet, which puts Adayar in the driving seat.

    Adayar is definitely one for the multiples, and a banker on day one of the July meeting.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    We’re all on the come-down from Royal Ascot this week, but there is still top-class action to be had. There’s big handicap action up at Newcastle, with the Northumberland Plate the feature on Saturday, and two Group One’s over at The Curragh this weekend. Here are four Best Bets over the weekend.

    KEEP IT BRIEF

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    12:55 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Brad The Brief @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    Brad The Brief is making his seasonal reappearance for Hugo Palmer, a little later than predicted. The ground on the all-weather at Newcastle is Standard to slow, which does give an advantage to those horses that prefer it a bit softer on turf. Secondly, his record fresh isn’t bad, winning twice out of five, those two coming in similar contests. He hasn’t run on the UK all-weather since a two-year-old at Wolverhampton. Price represents good value, against a horse who has an excellent record on the All-weather, in Tiber Flow.

    PLATE IT UP

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    14:05 – NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE (Heritage H’cap) – ADJUVANT @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    The Northumberland Plate is one of those races where you can, more often than not, find the winner. In the past 10 runnings of the race, the biggest priced winners were 33/1 and 16/1. If you head towards the market, you should land on the winner. Which is why I’ve gone with Adjuvant. He’s been kept fresh since winning a class three handicap at Newmarket, and was raised four pounds for that win. He was a regular feature in big three-year-old handicaps last year, being placed in the Melrose his best result. Talented Billy Loughnane gets the leg up, and rode a double at Bath this week, and jockey form like that can’t be ignored. And last time he was at Newcastle, he rode a treble. Step up in trip won’t be a problem, and all-weather should suit, given he’s making his debut on the surface.

    Staying at the top of the shop, Omniscient for the legend that is Sir Mark Prescott can’t be ignored. Makes his reappearance, off the back of a win at the end of last season, on the all-weather. He may have had a steep rise in the handicap, but Prescott must feel that it is a fair mark for him. He’s at a 33%, which shows evidence of his shrewdness and knowledge, and has a good chance to add the Pitman’s Derby to an illustrious CV. Omniscient with each-way claims at 10/1 (General)

    AN O’BRIEN FAIRYTALE

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    15:25 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group One) – Never Ending Story @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    Looking at this race on paper, it doesn’t scream Group One. We’ve had a few races like this, this season, and the quality doesn’t fill me with much joy. Which is why I’m taking advantage of the massive allowances that two of these fillies get. Never Ending Story is one of these, and has raced in two Group One’s this season. Both were in France, and both times she lost to Blue Rose Cen. In the Prix de Diane, she ran a second and was more suited to the trip. She may be playing second-fiddle, but I think everyone’s on the wrong O’Brien horse.

    Sunday

    STATE THE OBVIOUS

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    3:40 – IRISH DERBY (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal E/W @ 40/1 (BetVictor)

    Auguste Rodin will win it. The market says so, and everyone else does. He performed to his absolute best at Epsom, and should be as on song as he was at Epsom three weeks ago. Sprewell and White Birch did run on well in behind, but I feel that Sprewell isn’t group one quality, and White Birch is second-best. But Proud And Regal at 40/1 is an each-way shout that I can’t be having. It was the wrong decision to make him step down in trip for the Irish Guineas, but hat form stood up at Royal Ascot which benefits him. He was third behind Sprewell on heavy ground over 10 furlongs, and you felt that a step up in trip would be better than stepping down. The ground will be to his liking, and he’s a Group One winner (in France), which everyone seems to have forgotten. He’s also bred for a Derby, by Galileo, and related to a few middle-distance horses.

    The very best of luck!