Best Of Bets

Tag: ITV Racing

  • Four To Follow: Aye Aye Captain – November Meeting Day One

    Four To Follow: Aye Aye Captain – November Meeting Day One

    The first highlight of the Winter months, the November meeting at Cheltenham is always a great watch. Three days of unrivalled action on the toughest testing ground. The first day sees some intriguing novice action to keep an eye on for the season ahead, plus the Cross-Country track is in action for the first time this season. Here’s a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Talk of the Trade

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    1:45 – Mucking Brilliant H’cap Chase – Triple Trade @ 9/2 (General)

    The ground is always key to betting, and Cheltenham, as of writing, has changed its ground from soft to good-to-soft after being forecast rain but no sign of any. This makes it an, almost, level playing field for everyone involved.

    And Triple Trade stands out. An incredibly progressive horse, he hasn’t finished outside the top two since the 2022 EBF Final, although unseated at Kempton last year. The consistency this horse has is brilliant and has only been raised a pound for finishing second at the October meeting last time out. Joe Tizzard has hit some good form, and his horses are well worth backing.

    Despite only having one winner at this meeting last season, Dan Skelton loves this meeting and is often a litmus test for his season ahead. Walk In Clover is also rather progressive and has the ability to compete at this level.

    She fell when at the rear of four last time out at Cheltenham, although she wouldn’t have been beaten too far. Her mark is attractive, particularly with a five-pound claim and can produce a clean run today. 11/1 (General) is worth a small poke.

     

    The Obvious One

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    2:20 – Arkle Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – JPR One @ 6/4 (General)

    This race shows how weak this division is in the UK. Safe to say none of these will win the Arkle. A disappointing turnout makes the appeal for JPR One all the more enticing. A good winner of three on heavy ground at Newton Abbot, he’s acted of better ground and is capable of further improvement.

     

    Diesel Downing Delta

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    2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross County H’cap Chase – Diesel D’Allier @ 8/1 (General)

    Despite the appeal of the two Gordon Elliott horses, Diesel D’Allier will have been aimed at this race too. His mark is appealing, two pounds under his last win in December 2021. His best performances have come on better ground and he has every right to cause a mini upset.

    Francky Du Berlais ran a cracker race barring the last fence at the Festival. His form looks inconsistent, but he’s back down to a mark close to his last winning one. His mark of 135 produced a good fourth in a Topham chase and this can be the cup final for the 10-year-old. 16/1 (General) is worth having against the two favourites.

     

    Captain My Captain

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    3:30 – Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Captain Teague @ 4/6 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Paul Nicholls is extremely excited about this novice. And why shouldn’t he be? We were all excited about Hermes Allen last season at this time last season too and could go down the well-trodden path with Captain Teague. First time out in a novice hurdle was also a Grade Two, which shows the talent he possesses at such a young level.

    Minella Missile also excites me at a big price for Evan Williams. Another Chepstow graduate, he beat fellow Nicholls’ favourite Don’t Tell Su. He’s a half-brother to Monbeg Genius who has turned out to be a really useful chaser and is up for improvement against the top-class Captain Teague. At 12/1 (General) he’s worth an eachway shot, or on the place and w/o fav markets.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Cheers To The Beers

    Four To Follow: Cheers To The Beers

    It’s Badger Beers Day at Wincanton, which is always a great handicap to watch early in the season. There’s a strong contingent from the Paul Nicholls’ stable at his local track to look out for. A bit further up North, we’ve action over the National fences at Aintree and the rescheduled November handicap at Newcastle.

     

    Wincanton

    The Old Ones Are Best

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    2:25 – 62nd Badger Beers Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Frodon @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    Frodon performed so well in the Badger Beers last year, you feel as though this is the best opportunity to get a win this season. The 12-Y-O is possibly one of the most loved horses in racing and it will be sad when he leaves the scene. For today, he’s back on the same wining mark as he was last year and can go on any ground at all. I think Nicholls’ other runner, Threeunderthrufive, will be aiming for bigger prizes later this season.

    Blackjack Magic was an very progressive chaser last season, and goes well fresh too. He won’t want the ground drying out too much, as he is a mud lover. But I think we’ll be seeing much more of Blackjack Magic in these types of races this season and is certainly interesting at 9/1 (BetUK)

    Ballygriffincottage was on my radar at the start of last season, but things went awry, and we never saw him at his best. His jumping wasn’t great on seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot and needs to rediscover his form from Haydock this time last year. He’s off the same mark as that win and can give a good account of himself if he jumps well. 16/1 (William Hill) is a fair price.

     

    Maybe Not Nicholls

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    2:25 – Elite Hurdle (Grade Two) – Hansard @ 7/4 (William Hill, Betfred)

    This isn’t a Grade Two by any standards. With four runners, and two of them far clear of the other pair. It’s a match with Rubaud, who shaped well at Kempton last time out. But Hansard is a talented individual as well, and has beaten good-looking chaser Master Chewy over timber. He won’t mind the conditions, and can reverse the form from the Dovecote in February.

     

    Aintree

    Banging The Drum

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    2:45 – Boylesports Grand Sefton H’cap Chase – Percussion @ 8/1 (BetUK)

    This race is for the mud lovers, as the National course passed a 9AM inspection yesterday. Percussion is 1/1 on heavy ground, in a bizarre finish at Fontwell (Well worth a watch). Percussion also has the added advantage of competing over the National fences, finishing third in this race last year and the Becher Chase. He’s on a lower mark than both of those races and can be up there at the elbow.

    Frero Banbou is another that catches the eye. Despite not competing over the National fences, and only once over two-and-a-half miles, he looks the sort that could relish the conditions. Venetia Williams is hitting a purple patch of form, and she has one that can perform on the conditions. Similar price to the main selection, 9/1 (General)

     

    Newcastle

    A Wily Choice

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    3:45 – November Handicap – Teumessias Fox @ 6/1 (General)

    Teumessias Fox has a great record on the All-weather; two wins and two thirds. So, it’s safe to say he’ll be up there. He comes in the race fresh and has Callum Hutchinson claiming a crucial three pounds, which brings him down to the level he was in the Spring. Top weight won’t be much of a problem and can land the last big prize handicap of the flat.

    Chillingham for Ed Bethell is another runner I find interesting for this contest. He both finished and started his seasons with wins in 22/23 and could do the same here. His form on soft ground will suit the tapeta and is only a pound higher than a narrow loss at Ripon in July. Off a break, he’s another that could go well on the Tapeta; one race, one third. 13/2 (General) is a price to be had.

    Further down the market, Struth makes a bit of appeal. An established front-runner, he may face problems up the run-in. He’s down to a likeable mark, at which he was headed off the line at Ascot in August. If he runs a hot race, he may be hard to peg back. Unexposed on AW. 18/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    It’s action from the North, the South and across the Atlantic this weekend as the Breeders’ Cup takes place in Santa Anita. A little further North, back home, it’s Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby with Bravemansgame making his reappearance alongside Ahoy Senor. Ascot also has a good handicap card to get stuck into too. A intriguing weekend for Four To Follow.

     

    Wetherby

    The Girls are alright with me

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    1:50 – Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) – Kateira @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    Kateira is still new to hurdles but is no longer a novice and comes into a tricky race, after finishing runner-up in a Grade One last April. But she loves to race fresh, with figures after a 50+ break reading 5112. She’s constantly on the upgrade and will love the soft ground up at Wetherby. Expect more progression from this horse throughout the season.

    Stainsby Girl represents the value in the race for me. An established front-runner, it’s her first foray into level weights. And she comes in with one of the highest marks in the field at 138, she’s not one to be dismissed. She’s a mud-lover and could be hard to peg back if she’s given some racing room in front. 7/1 (General) is a nice price.

     

    Drashing through the mud

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    2:25 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Dashel Drasher @ 9/4 (Betfred)

    Another tricky contest, but I’m surprised the 10-year-old isn’t favourite for the race. He has a consistent reappearance record, never finishing outside the top three, and loves soft ground. Thyme Hill is the one to oppose and comes back to hurdling after a season over fences didn’t work out.

    Dashel Drasher was ultra consistent last season, with four seconds, including narrowly losing to Sire Du Berlais in the stayers. I expect him to be favourite at the off.

     

    Ascot

    Mucho macho man

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    3:45 – Sodexo Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Mucho Mas @ 6/1 (General)

    Mucho Mas a progressive chaser for Ben Pauling having competed at the levels below Premier chases last season. But he was entered for the Sandown Gold Cup but was scratched due to the ground. This may be a big ask, but the ground is a big plus for him. A four-pound rise looks lenient given the missed end of season targets and can run a big race. He’s certain to feature in similar events throughout the season, nonetheless.

    A former winner of the race also puts forward an intriguing case. Larry won the 2021 edition off a mark of 132. This year it’s only 135 on soft ground. He also loves Ascot at this time of year with two wins over C&D in the last two years. Ground won’t be a problem, and can break the Moore’s poor run of form at 11/1 (General).

     

    Breeders’ Cup

    Rodin’ the wave

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    Santa Anita 9:50 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade One) – Auguste Rodin @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    It’s the race that he has been preparing for all season. His avoidance of a tilt at the Arc and the Champion Stakes made sure that this would be his destination. Auguste Rodin is ready to be the star of Tinseltown. It was a gutsy, yet impressive, win in the Irish Champion which puts him at the head of the market.

    King Of Steel was the big impresser at Ascot, but just how much did that race take out of him for him to be running two weeks later?

    Mostahdaf has the US media talking on his final start, but his best form comes over 10 furlongs. Can making it a fairytale end to his career?

    I think the dual Derby and Irish Champion has the race to lose, and add to Ballydoyle’s excellent Breeders’ Cup success.

    War Like Goddess is a peach of a price at 14/1 (William Hill), after finishing third in the contest last year. She won a Grade One at Belmont in some style to prep herself for her tilt to go two better this year.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Cheltenham Crackers

    Four To Follow: Cheltenham Crackers

    Cheltenham. Is. Back. And it looms a cracker of a card, and it’s only the first meeting of the season. Plenty of clues with the novice divisions already taking shape, and some handicaps to savour too. Plus we, might, have the final Group One on the flat at Doncaster that may see an upset on the boggy ground. It’s Saturday, it’s Four to Follow.

    Lord Almighty

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    2:25 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Lord Accord @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Neil Mulholland’s star won this race last year, and is back to do it all again on the Old Course. The big statistic that has made him been backed in, is he is only one pound higher than last year’s mark. The ground will not be a bother, and his running style suits the trip and course to a T. I just can’t look past him, even if he might be too short for a handicap.

    Twig is another to consider for the Ben Pauling team, who had an emotional winner with Mole Court yesterday. Twig has won his last tow starts, over both hurdle and chase classes, at this level. The handicap has given him a five pound rise, which Beau Morgan immediately takes off with the claim. The ground is good, whilst a little rain softened, which is perfect for a nice swing at 9/1 (William Hill).

    And with extra places on offer with bookmakers, the third pick is an Irish raider. Henry de Bromhead and Gordon Elliott always bring a string over to every Cheltenham meeting, and they’re not just there for peanuts. De Bromhead saddles Whacker Clan who won’t mind the good-ish ground, despite a win on soft ground last time out. Down in the handicap and a big price at 16/1 (William Hill).

    A New Pick

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    3:00 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle – Hugos New Horse @ 15/2 (Unibet)

    Ah, the Pertemps. One of jumps racing’s greatest creations. But I can’t really understand why Hugos New Horse is as big as he is. He’s only been raised two pounds for a rather convincing win at Ayr on his final start last season and makes him quite well handicap. In the colours of the Stewart Family, which carries some credibility, Paul Nicholls can get a Cheltenham winner on the board with this eye-catcher.

    Syd Hosie had an incredible win on Trials Day last year with Rock My Way, which prompted some wild celebrations in the winners’ enclosure. Fate didn’t repeat itself at the Festival but comes to this race well handicapped. Whilst he might not have won on ‘good’, it might ride a little softer today which will benefit. He loves Cheltenham, and is worth to take on at 14/1 (BetVictor)

    And I can’t really get past Party Business at 18/1 (Betfred). He’s coming off a run and a wind operation but is a regular runner over good-to-soft ground. He’s been waiting to get an attractive mark it looks lie he’s got it. He’s two pounds higher than his previous winning mark, which was at Aintree in 2022, and he could run a big race here.

    Eh Laddie

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    3:45 – William Hill Novices’ Hurdle – Lisnamult Lad @ 6/1 (General)

    Whilst Antrim Coast is odds-on for beating a non-favourite Willie Mullins horse last time out (And the Keith Donoghue Cheltenham factor), I’m unsure why John McConnell’s horse is 6/1. The trainer has sent the winner out twice in the last three years, and this horse seems like a wild thing. Three out of four over hurdles, his last two winning margins are a combined 44 ½ lengths. He has licence to step up in trip and can overturn the market.

    Doing A Donny Rain Dance

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    Doncaster 2:10 – KAMEKO Futurity Trophy (Group One) – Dancing Gemini @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    This meeting could be called off, so ignore this if it is. But I still think that Dancing Gemini would still win in the swimming turf. Breeding-wise, Camelot won the Irish Derby on soft/heavy ground and won the Flying Scotsman on soft ground by 4 ½ lengths. Ice Max is the only one who has franked the form, but form goes out the window when the ground gets as bottomless as it is in South Yorkshire.

    Just keep an eye out for Devil’s Point at 22/1 (888Sport). David Menusier won a Group One 2-Y-O race at Saint-Cloud on Sunday, and Devil’s Point has heavy ground in his breeding thanks to New Bay. He can run a big race on bottomless.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Whilst the entire racing public will focus in on the jumps action at Chepstow, I’m still infatuated with the flat. Some of the top jumps trainers will head to the Rowley Mile this week to contest the Cesarewitch on Saturday, but there’s also top 2-Y-O action along in the Future Champions Festival. We also get to see some old friends sprinting up at York in their final meeting of the season. Here’s this week’s Four To Follow.

    Newmarket

    A Shuwed bet

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    Friday 4:10 – Fillies’ Mile (Group One) – Shuwari @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    With a name like Sangster, a lot is expected of you. And it’s not often a first-year trainer gets a special one straight away. But Shuwari just looks like that. Bred by French Derby winner New Bay, and from a staying family, Shuwari may be one to challenge for the classics. Her run in the Rockfel came with plenty of positives. She stayed on past the line and could have been bang up there with Carla’s Way had she not dwelt the start. Stepping up to a mile won’t be a problem & she’s clearly the one to beat. Favoruites have a strong record in the race, with the last four winners all top of the shop.

    Definitely not wooden

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    Saturday 2:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (Group One) – City Of Troy @ 1/2 (William Hill)

    Sometimes form goes out the window and you go on with what you have seen. And City of Troy was probably the most impressive juvenile winner of the season. He blew the field away on the July course by six-and-a-half lengths and has been kept incredibly fresh for this contest. With plenty of black-type in his pedigree, he can certainly justify odds-on. Only one odds-on shot has been overturned in the last 17 runnings.

     

    Meade for this

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    Saturday 2:40 – Cesarewitch (Heritage H’cap) – Jesse Evans @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    The Cesarewtich is a notoriously tough handicap, but if there’s on trend to follow; back jump trainers. Only three have breached the dominance from the flat world in the last ten years. And whilst everyone is looking to Pied Piper, it’s worth noting that the former flat horse didn’t have much success at this level. Jesse Evans represents better value and has had a fantastic season this Summer. Two wins on the flat, narrowly beaten in the Galway Hurdle and almost landed the Irish version in a tight finish. There’s no doubt he will be up there again.

    Another Meade runner makes appeal further down the market. Sheishybrid finished second in the Cesarewitch Trial two weeks ago and remains on the same mark. She has been on the upgrade in her past few runs, and with three pounds taken off there may be a slight advantage over rival Grand Providence. A wide draw may be a negative, but it shouldn’t make too much difference over two miles and two furlongs. Worth a go at 20/1 (General).

    And it wouldn’t be a Cesarewitch without a Willie Mullins runner. And one at a price is Zenon. She returned off a break of nearly three years to dust the cobwebs off at Bellewstown. Zenon looks to have a preference for softer ground, so conditions may not be ideal. But with 33 rivals around, there’s chance to get a piece of luck somewhere. It’s a big call up for Saffie Osborne, but she’s had a stellar season and can top it off with a big win. 28/1 (William Hill).

     

    York

    No Wobbling about

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    Saturday 2:25 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Wobwobwob @ 10/1 (Betfred)

    Wobwobwob enjoyed success last time out at Ayr winning the Silver Cup. But I feel that the race was a stepping stone to bigger things. And this looks like the target. His past three runs have all been brilliant, from second on heavy Goodwood ground to two pleasing runs in this company. Adrian Paul Keatley will be following a very positive trend of Northern trained winners of the race. Wobwobwob looks primed and ready.

    In behind, Kevin Ryan saddles four runners. This shows how seriously he takes this race, and I think a couple will be at their best today. Firstly, Bielsa who has had a spread out campaign. But he started the season off with a win over C&D and is only three pounds higher in the weights.  It’s also the mark he won off in his Ayr Gold Cup victory in 2021. He looks more than an each-way shout at 14/1 (Betfred).

    The second Kevin Ryan runner I’m suited by is Magical Spirit. Stable jockey Tom Eaves gets the leg up yet finds himself down in the market. He finished third behind Bielsa after a winning start at Doncaster. Now he’s a pound lower than that winning mark and can display a similar performance to that in May. Take a chance at 33/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Another week, another Group One. This time it’s the Sun Chariot Stakes over on the Rowley Mile, whilst the two-year-olds are in action in the Tattersalls October Sales Race. There’s also the Two-Year-Old Trophy up North at Redcar, and the handicap action comes from Ascot with the Challenge Cup. It’s those races we focus on for this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Newmarket

    Running in the dark

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    2:05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes – Midnite Runner @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    An interesting fact about this fairly new sales race is the Northern trainers have a good record in the race. David Barron, Julie Camacho and Les Eyre have all won this race in the past nine renewals. And it’s another Northern trainer that looks to have some potential to cause an upset to the odds-on favourite. Despite racing green in the early stages, Midnite Runner rallied well in the final quarter mile to win my one-and-a-half lengths. The form hasn’t been thoroughly tested, so Michael Dods looks to have a horse with potential here.

    Further down the market, Drama makes some appeal for James Ferguson and Saffie Osborne. He didn’t perform in the Somerville Auction Stakes on the July course, but you could excuse that to firm ground. His only win came on similar ground, in a novice stakes at Windsor. With Saffie continuing her great form for the season, Drama may be one to consider at 16/1 (Betfred)

    Another for the shortlist is Lieutenant Rascal. Bred by U S Navy Flag, he is the speedy type. But on evidence on his last two runs, he would like the slight step up in trip to six furlongs. He’s had a busy season, even finishing towards the rear in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. His last two performances are the evidence to go on, and can end a barren run for trainer George Scott. 22/1 (Betfred).

     

    On the quiet

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    3:15 – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group One) – Meditate @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    People have been easy to dismiss this horse. She’s always fallen to her superior rival Tahiyra and underperformed in the Prix Jean Prat. But, with no Tahyira and what looks like a weakish Group One on paper, she can certainly hit the frame. In recent renewals, the favourite has been overturned and that makes me prefer Meditate over Inspiral.

     

    Ascot

    Sweet and Smoky

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    3:35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Hickory @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Hickory comes into this in good form. A consistent performer over seven furlongs, he started to enter the conversation with two placed efforts over C&D. Trainer James Fanshawe has aimed him for this handicap, and got in on the bottom weight, which is a big bonus. He wasn’t too far behind Baradar, who reopposes him here, and neither Quinault last time out, who also features. The ground will be to his liking, and is drawn to the far side, which can help him.

    Three-year-olds start to come alive at this time in the season and a youngster who has a chance is Glenfinnian. He’s won over C&D in a classified stakes race and didn’t perform on the ground last time out. He comes in on a nice low weight, and a handy stand-side draw. Andrew Balding has tasted success recently over C&D with Alsakib, and has another live chance here at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Redcar

    Action stations

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    2:45 – William Hill Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) – Action Point @ 17/2 (General)

    Dragon Leader is the overwhelming favourite. And whilst favourites do have a good record, he can be opposed. And Action Point looks to be that rival. He drops in Grade from a French Group Three to a Listed contest, which was the last class of race he won at. The ground will be perfect for him, as he ran creditably on similar ground at Chantilly last time out, but far too firm at York. This should be an interesting race, as Dragon Leader won’t have the ground to his usual rattling preference.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    It’s a great weekend for sports fans. The Ryder Cup is in full swing, another great weekend of Premier League football and the Rugby World Cup continues. Plus, it’s Arc weekend. For two days Europe’s elite head to ParisLongchamp for Europe’s biggest prize named after one of the city’s most famous landmark. Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? And there’s the small matter of the Cambridgeshire too.

    Saturday – Newmarket

    A Pot of Fortuna

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    2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally is a really unfortunate non-runner, as she has been the standout this season. But the race opens up and, despite the market headed by a talented French filly, I think one at a price can nab this. Porta Fortuna has been placed twice in her two Group One races and steps back to a more suitable six furlongs. She’ll appreciate the firmness at Newmarket today and jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on her once again.

    Another filly that will appreciate the quickness of the ground is Symbology. She’s ran green a few times, and didn’t help her cause at Salisbury last time out. She wasn’t too far away in the Lowther, which is the form you have to consider for this race, and Clive Cox does have a decent crop of two-year-olds in his stable. Not without hope at 22/1 (William Hill)

     

    Take Them To Task

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    3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group One) – Task Force @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    As of last night, Task Force has been backed in to single figures. And with good reason. Already a Listed winner by winning the Ripon 2-Y-O Trophy, he is bred to act on the ground.

    He may be by Frankel, but his Dam, Special Duty, won the Cheveley Park Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground. If that’s not an omen for this seventh foal of hers, I don’t know what is. Seven Questions is the next best horse to come out of the race and he can really act to beat the two big guns today.

    Jasour is another I really fancy. He’s proven on firm ground, with two wins including a Group Two on the quick stuff. He disappointed in the Prix Morny and led all the way, which showed he was green on the day. He has won races before from the rear of the field, which may be the way to ride him on the Rowley Mile. Double-figure price at 10/1 (William Hill)

     

    Identify This Winner

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire Heritage H’cap – Dual Identity @ 11/1 (General)

    When it comes to a 35-runner handicap, there shouldn’t be a 7/2 favourite. Ever. So I’ve immediately discounted Greek Order from my thinking for this race. And it didn’t take me long to find my main pick. Dual Identity had a great third in last year’s race and has only risen four pounds up the weights since then. A fantastic performance at Sandown aimed him squarely for this race, and looks in ideal nick to go better this time around.

    Majestic won last year’s event, and in some fashion too. Young Aiden Brooks has been overtaken by Benoit de la Sayette for this year’s crack, and won’t be too far away this time round. He will carry more weight this year, but a mark of 89 is suitable, particularly since he has been in the 90’s all this season.

    His best performance came at Epsom when second to Cadillac on firm ground, so has that in his favour this year too. He could become the first horse since Prince De Galles in 1970 to win the race back to back, 14/1 (Betfred, William Hill) says he doesn’t.

    And three-year-olds begin to come into their own in handicaps at this time of year, so it would be remiss to not back one here, despite the last youngster to win was Lord North in 2019. Terwada for Ed Walker looks interesting after a rather a good season in the form book. His first big runner handicap at York was a baptism of fire, finishing in the top half of the field.

    He’ll have to rely on a nine length win in a maiden to win here, but he’s only five pounds higher than his previous winning mark for a horse continuously improving. 18/1 (General) is a price worth having.

     

    Sunday – ParisLongchamp

    Rewrite the History Huk-s

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    3:05 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group One) – Hukum @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The last horse that was above the age of six was Motrico in 1932. The last horse to win from stall 14 was Golden Horn’s miracle win in 2014. The stats are firmly against him. But I think stats have their place. I rely on stats all the time, but when you fall in love with a horse like Hukum you can’t escape it.

    A winner over further, a tough a ready winner when he won the King George in July, he looks set for the race. He’s been kept fresh and this was the clear aim, in what could be his last race in his career. He might not go down as one of the greats, but if he wins he’ll certainly be popular.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    As we near the end of the flat season, we’re starting to work out the best of the best. But that’s put on hold for the moment, as we head up to Ayrshire for another big sprint handicap worth its weight in Bronze, Silver and Gold. The Ayr Gold Cup takes centre stage and I’ve picked out three over the border plus one in the Mill Reef to make today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ayr

    Not Jumping just yet

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    2:25 – Ayr Silver Cup H’cap – Jump The Gun @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    Jump The Gun returns to this race 10lbs lower than last time. He hasn’t had the most stellar of seasons, tumbling down the weights until a fantastic run last time out in a handicap at Doncaster. He’s back up to a class two handicap and shouldn’t’ find it too difficult from stall 12. Last year he was denied a clear run, but a good break and a bit of luck will help him and William Pyle.

    Another horse low down in the weights who catches the eye is Aplomb for Eve Johnson Houghton. Very lightly raced this season, and returns to the Silver Cup seven pounds lower than last year’s effort in sixth. A near miss last time out at Goodwood has him in good form, and has a nice each-way price on him at 11/1 (Betfred)

    And what is a big Ayr sprint handicap with a few Jim Goldie runners. The Renfrewshire trainer saddles three here, but I like Be Proud at a big price. His best efforts coming over the six furlongs, so excuse his run in the Racing League, and he’s on softer ground today. Mark Winn may have only had one win in the last two weeks, but he takes a crucial three pounds off here and has a chance at 28/1 (William Hill)

     

    Talking ‘bout my Generation

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    3:00 – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) – Great Generation @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    This race doesn’t really produce future classic winners, but it can produce some fairly decent type fillies. She’s unbeaten and won with plenty in hand last time out at Chester. She’s by Holy Roman Emperor and will like the cut in the ground today, as she has on her previous two runs. She poses a significant danger to the favourites and I’m taking advantage of that.

     

    Raze the roof

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    3:35 – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Orazio @ 15/2 (Betfred)

    The big one is headed by Orazio, who hasn’t turned up in the big sprints. Both runs in the Wokingham and the Steward’s Cup were disappointing to say the least. But he’s back on sounder ground here for the Ayr Gold Cup. and has been kept fresh by Charlie Hills, which is a big plus in my books. He’s drawn right near the rail in stall 23, and all these positives mean I just can’t look past the favourite.

    The next best in the race doesn’t come much closer than Significantly. He ran an absolute stormer in the Portland and has been rather underestimated all season. He’s on the same mark as last week’s run and he’s low in the weights. What more could Julie Camacho want? His performances in handicaps at this level this season have been 262, which puts him bang up there at the finish. Well found in the market at 9/1 (Betfred).

    Fast Response caught my eye when the declarations came out. His mark of 103 may look too much to handle, but Brandon Wilkie’s seven pounds puts him at a workable mark of 96, a pound above his winning mark in the Wentworth. He drops in trip to six furlongs after racing at seven this term, and wasn’t too far away in the Queensferry last time out. Interesting at 12/1 (Betfred)

     

    Newbury

    A small selection

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    3:15 – Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) – Array @ 5/1 (Betfred)

    Winners of this race commonly come from a Group race last time out, particularly the Sirenia at Kempton. The one who follows that line of form is Array for Andrew Balding. He wasn’t too far behind Starlust on the Tapeta, but he’s back on a sound turf surface today. He’s by No Nay Never and plenty of black-type runs in the family. He’s improving all the time and can work the Sirenia form in his favour.

    The very best of luck!

  • St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: Classic Charge

    St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: Classic Charge

    The winners have kept coming and coming for us in this year’s St. Leger Festival, and let’s hope the page can end on a high today with the big race itself the centrepiece of Doncaster’s season. Here’s Saturday’s Four To Follow plus St. Leger fancy.

     

    Rose Champagne

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    1:50 – Betfred Champagne Stakes (Group Two) – Rosallion @ 4/9 (William Hill)

    Down the years the Champagne Stakes has always been a good looking contest, but today it’s more of an open and shut case. Rosallion annihilated the field in the Pat Eddery at Ascot on his last start, and the form got a major boost with Dancing Gemini winning yesterday. Bred by Blue Point, he has the ability to go on softer ground and Richard Hannon’s record in recent years is also key to this horse’s chances.

     

    King Of Town Moor

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    2:25 – Betfred Portland (Heritage H’cap) – King’s Lynn @ 10/1 (Betfred)

    The Portland is always an interesting race, and this year’s renewal looks more open than ever. I’m siding with King’s Lynn, formerly of Royal ownership, for his record on soft ground. He hated the bottomless ground at Goodwood, but has better record on soft ground. He has won two Doncaster sprints before, including the 2-Y-O sales race and the Wentworth Stakes (soft) in 2021. Despite not winning a heritage handicap, the ground may play a factor to other horses who will prefer it firmer, and King’s Lynn can use the far side rail to his advantage.

    Sticking with the soft theme, Live In The Moment could make it a momentous year for De’Lemos’. The owners who won with Live In The Dream have an outside chance with this one who won a class four handicap at Goodwood last time out. He’ll want a better race here, and with the ground to a likeable soft, and with experience in top level handicaps, he can spring a surprise. Each-way shout at 16/1 (William Hill)

    One more to consider is Dakota Gold. Although you would rather be seeing him up at York, Dakota Gold and Michael Dods have a liking for any Yorkshire track. Despite Dods not winning the race, he has won a class two handicap with Dakota Gold before at their November meeting. The soft ground is to Dakota Gold’s preference, and is back to a winning mark of 100. And old reliable at 22/1 (Betfred)

     

    A Softie Spy

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    3:00 – Betfred Park Stakes (Group Two) – Spycatcher @ 6/4 (Betfred)

    There’s only two horses that have reliable soft ground form in the race. Spycatcher and Biggles. It would be worth having those two in a reverse forecast, but outright Spycatcher has the form to go on, after been beaten by a head in a French Group One last time out. His season started brilliantly with a win of seven furlongs at Thirsk on soft ground, and was placed in the Victoria Cup in May. It’s those kinds of results that make him the pick of the bunch here.

     

    Another Frankie Fairytale

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    3:35 – Betfred St. Leger Stakes (Group One) – Arrest @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    A lot of people are saying that Frankie Dettori has made the wrong choice in the St. Leger. He should have Gregory who has the ‘Group One form’. Gregory hasn’t run in a Group One, and, for me, he didn’t look like the St. Leger winner in the Queen’s Vase. He ran his worst race in the Great Voltigeur and looking back on the Queen’s Vase, he still looked quite green and inexperienced.

    But Arrest, for me, holds all the aces. He was disappointing at Epsom, because he didn’t handle the ground. The one thing we haven’t seen Gregory do is act on soft ground. Four winners in the last ten years ran in the Epsom Derby and went to win here. Arrest is the only horse in the field to have done so. His run at Newbury was a step up in distance and, albeit a warm-up, it shows that he relished the step up in trip and has more than a chance to win the final classic of the season. I say Frankie’s judgement is perfect.

    You can have a more in depth look at the St. Leger here

    The very best of luck!