Best weekend horse racing tips and betting insight
We’re all on the come-down from Royal Ascot this week, but there is still top-class action to be had. There’s big handicap action up at Newcastle, with the Northumberland Plate the feature on Saturday, and two Group One’s over at The Curragh this weekend. Here are four Best Bets over the weekend.
KEEP IT BRIEF
12:55 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Brad The Brief @ 4/1 (BetVictor)
Brad The Brief is making his seasonal reappearance for Hugo Palmer, a little later than predicted. The ground on the all-weather at Newcastle is Standard to slow, which does give an advantage to those horses that prefer it a bit softer on turf. Secondly, his record fresh isn’t bad, winning twice out of five, those two coming in similar contests. He hasn’t run on the UK all-weather since a two-year-old at Wolverhampton. Price represents good value, against a horse who has an excellent record on the All-weather, in Tiber Flow.
PLATE IT UP
14:05 – NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE (Heritage H’cap) – ADJUVANT @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)
The Northumberland Plate is one of those races where you can, more often than not, find the winner. In the past 10 runnings of the race, the biggest priced winners were 33/1 and 16/1. If you head towards the market, you should land on the winner. Which is why I’ve gone with Adjuvant. He’s been kept fresh since winning a class three handicap at Newmarket, and was raised four pounds for that win. He was a regular feature in big three-year-old handicaps last year, being placed in the Melrose his best result. Talented Billy Loughnane gets the leg up, and rode a double at Bath this week, and jockey form like that can’t be ignored. And last time he was at Newcastle, he rode a treble. Step up in trip won’t be a problem, and all-weather should suit, given he’s making his debut on the surface.
Staying at the top of the shop, Omniscient for the legend that is Sir Mark Prescott can’t be ignored. Makes his reappearance, off the back of a win at the end of last season, on the all-weather. He may have had a steep rise in the handicap, but Prescott must feel that it is a fair mark for him. He’s at a 33%, which shows evidence of his shrewdness and knowledge, and has a good chance to add the Pitman’s Derby to an illustrious CV. Omniscient with each-way claims at 10/1 (General)
AN O’BRIEN FAIRYTALE
15:25 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group One) – Never Ending Story @ 5/1 (BetVictor)
Looking at this race on paper, it doesn’t scream Group One. We’ve had a few races like this, this season, and the quality doesn’t fill me with much joy. Which is why I’m taking advantage of the massive allowances that two of these fillies get. Never Ending Story is one of these, and has raced in two Group One’s this season. Both were in France, and both times she lost to Blue Rose Cen. In the Prix de Diane, she ran a second and was more suited to the trip. She may be playing second-fiddle, but I think everyone’s on the wrong O’Brien horse.
Sunday
STATE THE OBVIOUS
3:40 – IRISH DERBY (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal E/W @ 40/1 (BetVictor)
Auguste Rodin will win it. The market says so, and everyone else does. He performed to his absolute best at Epsom, and should be as on song as he was at Epsom three weeks ago. Sprewell and White Birch did run on well in behind, but I feel that Sprewell isn’t group one quality, and White Birch is second-best. But Proud And Regal at 40/1 is an each-way shout that I can’t be having. It was the wrong decision to make him step down in trip for the Irish Guineas, but hat form stood up at Royal Ascot which benefits him. He was third behind Sprewell on heavy ground over 10 furlongs, and you felt that a step up in trip would be better than stepping down. The ground will be to his liking, and he’s a Group One winner (in France), which everyone seems to have forgotten. He’s also bred for a Derby, by Galileo, and related to a few middle-distance horses.
The very best of luck!
How we pick BestOfBets weekend selections and rationale
Our selections combine form study, track-specific evidence and market context to identify value in each race. We aim to highlight angles that are often overlooked by casual punters while keeping stakes sensible and evidence-based.
All readers must be 18+ to bet and should only gamble responsibly. These notes are informational and not a promise of returns.
Reading the form: what matters for each race
Start with recent runs over similar trips and going, and give weight to runs at the same class level as the target race. Horses returning from long breaks or first-time geldings/wind operations should be treated with caution until clear evidence of improvement appears.
Look for progressive horses showing a string of improving performances and for those dropping back after a notable run in better company. Consistency in finishing positions often beats one-off eye-catching runs.
Assessing the going, draw and expected pace impact
Track configuration and going can change the race shape dramatically. At Newcastle the draw is less influential on the all-weather, but soft turf at The Curragh or heavy ground can amplify stamina questions and favour certain running styles.
Pace maps and sectional times give clues on whether a race will favour front-runners or strong closers, and that should feed into whether to back a short-priced favourite or look for each-way value.
How to judge value and sensible staking approaches
Value is about the relationship between your assessed chance and the bookmaker price, not simply backing long-priced outsiders. A consistent staking plan — for example using small fixed units or graded staking according to confidence — reduces the emotional impact of short-term variance.
Avoid recovery chasing and size stakes so they remain affordable. Treat tips as information to inform a personal plan rather than a prompt to increase exposure.
Navigating markets: win, each-way and specials
Each-way markets can be the sensible route in larger handicaps like the Northumberland Plate where place terms are generous. In small fields and elite Group Ones, a win-only approach often matches market intent and value better.
Specials and forecast/exacta markets suit those who want to reduce variance but they require a clear probability view. Use them sparingly and always compare prices between bookmakers.
Why all-weather form can differ from turf form
All-weather surfaces tend to be more consistent and often favour horses who stay on strongly rather than those who rely on a turf kick. Check past performances specifically on Tapeta, Polytrack or AW rather than assuming turf form translates directly.
Interpreting jockey and trainer recent trends
Short-term form for jockeys and trainers can be informative, especially when a rider has been in good touch or a trainer targets specific meetings. Consider course-specific stats and how a stable rides out its horses for a clearer picture.
Practical pre-race checks and on-the-day considerations
On race day check the official going update, any confirmed non-runners and verified rider bookings. Late rain, scratchings and small adjustments in race pace can materially alter value and are worth a quick re-evaluation before committing stakes.
Race-by-race tactical notes and angles to watch
Chipchase Stakes — favour horses that handle a drop in grade and have shown a liking for the all-weather surface. Brad The Brief’s fresh form and ability to act on Standard-to-slow going are positive angles to monitor.
Northumberland Plate — this is a stamina test with typical late improvers and lightly raced younger horses making an impact. Adjuvant’s fresh condition and a progressive rider booking make him a credible player at his price.
How currents trends at The Curragh influence Group One outcomes
At The Curragh, horses that act on a fast, drying turf and have proven Group-level form are generally favoured. Never Ending Story’s pattern of running well in French Group Ones suggests she handles pressure and the step back to a mile and a quarter may suit.
In the Irish Derby the strength of the Auguste Rodin form is clear, but longer-priced each-way options like Proud And Regal appeal when breeding and previous Group form indicate a genuine stamina profile.
Where to find the best bookmaker prices and how to compare them
Compare a handful of reputable UK bookmakers to find the best odds and terms for each-way places, cash-out availability and promotional offers. Small price differences matter over time, especially with a structured staking approach.
You can explore current bookmaker offers and compare free bets using our dedicated comparison tools to find the best terms while betting responsibly.
Using comparison tools to spot better each-way terms
Each-way terms vary between firms and can swing value significantly in big-field handicaps. Look for providers offering extra places on big handicaps or enhanced each-way terms on selected races.
Checking non-runner and market-move information
Non-runners and late market moves often reveal insider confidence or fitness issues. A steady drift or sudden shortening should trigger a re-check of form and any late trainer notes before placing a wager.
Keeping records and reviewing long-term performance
Maintain a simple log of bets and results so you can assess which strategies are working and which are not. Over time, that evidence is the best way to refine approach and understand where you have identified genuine edges.
Responsible gambling and safety reminders for readers
All betting content is for readers aged 18+. Gambling carries risk and should never be viewed as a way to solve financial problems or improve lifestyle.
Set limits, stick to an affordable staking plan and seek help if gambling stops being fun. Organisations such as GamCare and BeGambleAware provide free, confidential advice and support.
You can explore our top recommended sports bookmakers and compare current free bet offers at BestOfBets free bets to find suitable terms for new customers. For casino bonus comparisons and current affiliate offers visit our casino offers page at BestOfBets casino bonuses.
How should I approach betting on all-weather races?
Focus on horses with proven AW form and recent runs on similar footing; adjust expectations versus turf form. Keep stakes modest and avoid overcommitting to single selections.
What is a sensible staking plan for weekend tips?
Use fixed small units or graded stakes based on confidence; never bet more than you can afford to lose. Sticking to a plan reduces emotional decisions after wins or losses.
How do trainer and jockey form affect selections?
Trainer-jockey combinations in form and with course-specific success increase the likelihood of a strong performance. Note recent winners and stable patterns rather than relying on long-term reputations alone.
When is each-way betting the more sensible choice?
Each-way is sensible in big handicaps or large-field races where place terms are generous and the market is competitive. Avoid each-way on small Group races with few runners unless place terms are widened.
Are there specific checks before placing a bet on race day?
Check the official going update, non-runners, any late jockey changes and weather forecasts. Small details can materially alter race shape and value opportunities.
How can I compare bookmaker offers safely and fairly?
Compare odds, each-way terms and promotion T&Cs across several regulated UK bookmakers to find the fairest value. Use comparison tools and prioritise firms with clear terms and responsible gambling protections.
What responsible gambling steps should I take before betting?
Set deposit and loss limits, decide on staking units in advance, and never chase losses. If gambling causes harm, seek support from recognised UK services like BeGambleAware and GamCare.
