Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Well, the tides have certainly turned on the Sussex Downs, and by tides, I actually mean a monsoon of rain over the last 24 hours.

    The official going touched heavy on the round course following consistent rain all day, something that caused a few horses to bounce on the conditions.

    However, all of the rain has passed through – until at least Saturday anyway – so let’s try and find a few soft-ground lovers.

     

    1:50 Goodwood – Promoter @ 17/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opening contest is for three-year-olds over the 1m2f test of Goodwood and in a field full of horses that could be anything, the Ralph Beckett-trained PROMOTER is an interesting each-way angle at 17/2.

    Having raced five times so far in his career, he broke his maiden tag on his second start on soft ground over seven furlongs at Chepstow when he gave seven pounds away to Racingbreaks Ryder and won eased down at the finish; the runner-up that day has since won four races on the trot and officially improved 18 pounds, so that race looks like good form.

    Following two more runs at seven furlongs, he stepped up to 1m2f on Derby day at Epsom and was a big eyecatcher in the Lestor Piggott Handicap to finish a staying-on fifth on good-to-firm ground, a surface that wouldn’t have been preferable.

    This week’s run is his first since that day at Epsom, suggesting that connections have kept one eye on this race for a while, and out of the Dubawi mare Hereawi, a two-time winner on soft ground, he should power through the heavy conditions on Glorious Goodwood Day 3.

    Plenty here will find the softer surface to their dislike based on their pedigree, so siding with one who should be okay with conditions is a safe play.

     

    2:25 Goodwood – Vandeek @ 7/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    In the proceeding race, the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, there will need to be a good animal in the field to beat VANDEEK at the top of the market.

    Trained by Simon & Ed Crisford, who could have a good day if Chesspiece runs as well as I think he can in the Gordon Stakes, the Havana Grey colt was very impressive last time out at Nottingham to win by just under a length.

    That may not sound world-class, however, he blew the start under Andrea Atzeni, who retains the ride, made a lot of ground up through the pack and won going away in good-to-soft ground.

    Although he is by Havana Grey, a sire who wouldn’t be known for his soft ground progeny, his damsire is Exceed And Excel who isn’t averse to adding soft ground ability to any pedigree and his dam is siblings with the 113-rated Sirocco Breeze, a soft ground winner on debut as a three-year-old.

    This year’s renewal of the Richmond Stakes looks an average one at best and this could be easy pickings for Vandeek.

     

    5:55 Goodwood – Rogue Spirit @ 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, I’m taking a swing on one returning to form in the lucky last with ROGUE SPIRIT at 12/1 with William Hill.

    Although he has been beaten a collective 38 lengths on his last four starts, this three-year-old last visited the winners’ enclosure at Haydock in September 2022 when beating Al Dasim on good-to-soft ground.

    Including the seven-pound claim of Connor Planas on that day, Tom Clover’s contender received nine pounds from the runner-up who has gone on to improve 19 pounds thanks to a Group 3 victory in Meydan earlier this year.

    Since then, Rogue Spirit has yet to race on softer conditions, something that is beneficial to his chances as a Dark Angel gelding out of a New Approach mare.

    Hopefully, the heavy going, first-time blinkers, and booking of Tom Marquand will spark improvement as he looks well-handicapped off 87.

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

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    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

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    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

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    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    Due to the frustrating results on the Sussex Downs yesterday for Bestofbets.com readers, only one place could help me wind down for the evening.

    Yes, that’s right, if you were looking for somewhere to watch Harry Cobden hose up on an odds-on nag, Fergal O’Brien hit the target with one runner, and the famous Sam Twiston-Davies drive, then Worcester Racecourse was the course to be at.

    In all seriousness, we dipped our toe into the five-day meeting yesterday with two agonising seconds, so with hope for better results today, let’s dive into my Glorious Goodwood Day 2 bets.

     

    1:50 Goodwood – Amleto @ 2/1 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Starting with the opening contest of the day, I believe that AMLETO will oblige at the top of the market for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.

    A lot seems to be on the side of this Sea The Stars thee-year-old over the 1m4f test of the Coral Handicap, most of which the soft ground following a downpour of rain overnight; the thrice-raced gelding won on soft ground last time out, so he should handle conditions.

    Furthermore, a well-reported fact is Amleto’s stunning pedigree as he is a full brother to the 2018 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-up Sea Of Class and a half-brother to last year’s Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville.

    Of course, relations aren’t always destined to be as good as each other, however, there is some encouragement behind the strength of his family as his dam, Holy Moon, has produced 12 offspring that have gone on to achieve an RPR of at least 90, which is impressive.

    The 240,000GNS yearling purchase is definitely well-regarded by all connected, something that was backed up by jockey Tom Marquand after his Chester win, as he said: “That’s why you rush yourself back, to ride horses that are exciting for the future – Amleto is a horse that’s learning and building on what he’s been doing and he’s certainly going the right way.”

    Therefore, although he is a short price, I hope that will be justified by the time the opener concludes.

     

    2:25 Goodwood – White Moonlight @ 7/1 with BetVictor – 1.5pts EW

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    The Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes is always a difficult race to work out and this year is no different as I have made cases for at least five runners throughout the last few days.

    After deliberation, WHITE MOONLIGHT is the one I’ve landed on at 8/1 with BetVictor.

    Two horses represent Godolphin in this contest at similar prices with her and Dream Of Love, who initially caught my attention thanks to her second to Mawj on soft ground in Meydan, however, her back-class doesn’t immediately suggest that she could run to a rating of around 110 to win here today.

    Whereas, the Saeed bin Suroor-trained White Moonlight could be a very good mare in the field who, despite being the oldest in the field, can improve and continue her rich vein of form.

    Since returning to the track in June 2022 after a 971-day lay-off, she has a plethora of good form with fellow owner-mates Soft Whisper and Wild Beauty (both rated 106) as well as her close second to the 112-rated Saratoga Oaks winner With The Moonlight earlier this year.

    After that, she returned to the UK and following an easy run at Lingfield, she beat Heredia on good-to-firm ground at Musselburgh before her massive effort to succeed over the well-fancied Queen Aminatu on the all-weather at Chelmsford.

    Those two runs put her on a great trajectory to perform well this week and considering her dam, Fitful Skies, placed in a Listed event on very soft during her racing career, she can feasibly be a better horse in slower conditions.

     

    3:00 Goodwood – Baheer @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Finally, to complete the trio of fancies from the first three races, I can’t let BAHEER slip past me in the Group 2 Molecomb Stakes.

    When I did the Only Fools Live Horses Goodwood preview on Monday evening, Richard Hannon’s two-year-old by Mehmas was an 11/1 poke with some firms, and although I did expect to see some price movement before flag fall at 3:00 today, I wasn’t expecting him to half in price.

    Saying that, Herridge Racing Stables regarded him as the best two-year-old before the season began and although he disappointed on his first start at Newbury, he quickly put that aside to win in early July.

    He looks to be a horse who has plenty of speed over six, so today’s drop back to five furlongs shouldn’t be a worry, and in what looks like a beatable Molecomb field, I’m with Baheer under Pat Dobbs.

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    The Top Three is back in profit!

    Following the success of Random Harvest at 10/3 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes – who was 8/1 when highlighted on last week’s Ante-post Analysis column – and Baradar at 7/1 (with an SP of 16/1) in the International Stakes, the P&L is in profit of 0.435 after taking into account My Prospero’s loss.

    So, with the wind in our sails, here are my bets for Glorious Goodwood Day 1.

     

    3:25 Goodwood – Iberian @ 13/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    The first fancy of the day comes in the opening Group race at Glorious Goodwood and it is IBERIAN under champion jockey William Buick that has grabbed my interest.

    Two-year-old contests at this time of the year can be tough to work out due to experienced juveniles meeting unexposed rivals who could be anything, and in today’s Vintage Stakes, the once-raced Lope De Vega colt is the one I’m siding with.

    Having won impressively at Newbury last time out, only two of the 12 rivals behind him that day have come out and won since, something that is a worrying statistic, however, the manner in which he powered away from the field should still hold merit.

    Furthermore, although he was a non-runner on the weekend due to unsuitable ground, I wouldn’t be too concerned about slower conditions as Lope De Vega’s are usually ground-versatile and his dam, Bella Estrella, was a winner on yielding as a three-year-old.

    In a not-so Vintage Stakes, this 200,000GNS purchase from the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale is well regarded within his yard and holds plenty of interest at a nice price.

     

    4:00 Goodwood – Isaac Shelby @ 11/4 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Directly following the first Group race for two-year-olds is the Lennox Stakes and Brian Meehan’s ISAAC SHELBY is the one I’ll be siding with.

    The Night Of Thunder colt has been a consistent type this season thanks to his win on soft ground in the Greenham Stakes first time out, his second in the French Guineas behind Marhaba Ya Sanafi, and fourth in a competitive renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    All three of those runs look to be the best form on display in this contest and the three-year-old will receive a six-pound weight-for-age allowance against his elders which has him best at the weights on official ratings.

    Although one would have to respect last year’s runner-up, Kinross, at the top of the market, I’ve been slightly underwhelmed by his runs so far this season and personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing him on a better surface.

    Therefore, defending the honour of the three-year-olds, I’m hoping that Isaac Shelby can put in a blinder in the Lennox.

     

    5:05 Goodwood – Stormy Sea @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, in the penultimate contest of the day, the well-bred STORMY SEA will carry my money going into the 19-strong fillies’ handicap.

    Firstly, the second-favourite, Rowayeh, is one who should be feared as the form of his victory over Mystic Pearl at Sandown last month has been franked with the runner-up winning the Listed Coral Distaff next time out.

    However, with the slightly softer ground on the agenda today, I’m preferring to side with the half-sister to Bay Bridge who should handle any give in the ground.

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    Firstly, her Group 1-winning relation has his best form on soft ground – as shown by his win in the 2022 Group 1 Champion Stakes – so the official going description of good to soft, good in places, will suit.

    Secondly, if you can ignore her run last time out in Listed company, her success on seasonal reappearance at Haydock was visually very impressive and the second, Lmay, has since won a maiden and finished fourth in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

    All in all, Stormy Sea has plenty on her side today and on a tough day of punting, she would be the NAP.

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day One

    What a Saturday for Four To Follow.

    Three winners, at big prices, it couldn’t have gone much better. It sets up a fantastic week for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival, a midsummer’s treat.

    Here are four to look out for from both sides of the Irish Sea.

     

    Goodwood

    Hot Hot Hot

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    3:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – Iberian @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Vintage Stakes is always throwing up some useful two-year-olds.

    Highland Reel, Expert Eye and Pinatubo have all won this race in recent years. But the best thing is not one outfit has dominated the race, which makes the betting heat wide open.

    I’ve chosen Iberian because I liked what I saw when he won on debut, travelling smartly to the two pole when everyone around him was being hurried, and looked very professional.

    Charlie Hills isn’t going well at the moment, but he seems to have a knack with his two-year-olds, who have delivered a £27.50 profit to a £1 stake. The horse itself is out of Lope De Vega, so shouldn’t have a problem getting the seven furlong trip.

     

    Keen On Ross

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    4:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 5/4 (General)

    I love Kinross. I loved him at the back-end of last season when he won three seven-furlong races on the spin. It is his true trip.

    He won the Lennox two years ago, fending off Creative Force by a neck, on soft ground. He then got chinned himself when losing to Sandrine last year on good ground.

    With the ground expected to be soft, and Frankie on board, I’m expecting another big performance from Kinross, and maybe we might see a repeat of last year’s feat.

     

    Don’t Rane On His Parade

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    4:35 – Goodwood Cup (Group One) – Coltrane @ 10/3 (Unibet)

    Courage Mon Amis was extremely impressive at Royal Ascot. Extremely impressive.

    He’s unbeaten and is ridden and trained by that familiar partnership of Dettori and Gosden. He’s also won at Goodwood this season in preparation for the Gold Cup.

    Why am I against him? Purely on experience and ground. He’s 4/4 and, like the Gold Cup, he’s up against some experienced rivals.

    Coltrane is his nearest challenger and just couldn’t produce over the 2m 4F trip last time out. This time it’s a fairer two-mile trip and Coltrane loves a bit of juice. It’s hard to know what the favourite likes as his two wins on turf have come on good-to-firm ground. Coltrane represents far better value, and can finally show off his Group One potential.

    To follow him in, I’m expecting Giavelloto to be up there. Marco Botti deliberately avoided the Gold Cup and has decided to come here. He’s versatile with the ground, so that’s not a problem and Andrea Atzeni is no jockey to be sniffed at, given his two wins on Stardivarius here.

    He won the Yorkshire Cup, which is always a good early season test, and that little loinger lay-off will have him in good nick for the contest. 14/1 (William Hill) is a perfect price.

     

    Galway

    A Nice Cup For Joe

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    6:40 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile (Premier H’cap) – Joe Masseria @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    The first big highlight of the Galway Festival is the mile handicap, which is 1m 123yds.

    Last year’s winner, Soaring Monarch is rightly at the top of the betting for being set up for this race again, but I’ve decided to go down a more active route.

    Joe Masseria is a soft ground specialist and a Galway C&D winner. He finished third on yielding ground, but that was after a break of the track since the early spring. It was a good set up for this race which looks tailor-made for him. Colin Keane is back on board, and he has a 2/3 record aboard him so looks set for another big performance.

    Gavin Cromwell has a runner in the race that looks as though he has been targeted since the end of the jumps season. Mister Wilson is a C&D winner and also loves the soft ground. A mark of 83 shouldn’t trouble him at all, after narrowly losing to twice winner of the Mile handicap Saltonstall, at Tipperary. He looks a big price at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    And it wouldn’t be an Irish premier handicap without a battalion of Adrian McGuinness’ taking up nearly half the field.

    Celtic Crown catches the eye with claimer James Ryan aboard, who has a 12% strike rate which isn’t bad for a jockey with a seven-pound allowance. That takes his mark down to 84, which is a big winning mark for after he won the Emerald Mile at the Curragh in 2022 off the same mark.

    Conditions might suit, although if the ground stays heavy on the West Coast of Ireland, be wary. Small stakes at 22/1 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Huk, Line And Sinker

    Four to Follow might not be in the best of form, but last week Savethelastdance, saved our blushes and this week we start anew. It’s a cracking card at Ascot, with a King George to savour, and York is also in the limelight too. Let’s see if we can Prosper for Gold up North and Huk a Bara-load of money at Ascot. Here’s this week’s four to follow…

     

    Ascot

     

    PURPLE REIGN

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    3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Baradar @ 7/1 (William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    As soon as I looked at the declarations on Thursday morning, my attention was immediately on him. Baradar has been one of the handicap horses to follow this season, but he’s not paid the dividends. But this looks like the race for him to do it. He’s finally off his mark of 97 and dropped a pound to 96 and has first-time cheeckpieces on, which is always a positive. Conditions are ideal, given how well he ran in the mud in the Lincoln. Plus a wide stand-side draw is boosting his chances further.

    Further down the market, our old friend Escobar is in this race for David O’Meara. The man from Malton (well Upper Helmsley) loves a big Ascot handicap and has the eye-catching booking of Frankie Dettori. He’s been dropping in the weights since his last win over C&D in October, and is down to his last winning mark. Ground conditions will be similar and a good each-way play at 16/1 (William Hill)

     

    LET’S HUK’EM

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    3:40 – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – HUKUM @ 5/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Betfred)

    My colleague Neil Levrett has given you a comprehensive guide to the big race, and mentioned that Hukum won’t like the ground too much. But with little rain forecast, and a prevailing wind I think the ground could dry out to good ground by the off time. But to win this race you need stamina, and what the two three-year-olds lack is stamina. Hukum has won over further, and on similar goings. Ratings go out of the window, and the form that Hukum has can put him over the rest of the field.

    Hamish is another horse I can fully get behind in the each-way market. Hamish has plenty of stamina, winning over a mile-and-six last time out. And, as mentioned before, stamina is crucial. C&D winner back in October is also a tick. But he isn’t a Group One horse, and his best success can often be found around Group Three. But with stamina, ground and trainer in form, there’s nothing stopping him causing a shock at 50/1 (General)

     

    York

     

    GIMME GIMME THE GOLD

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    2:40 – Sky Bet Dash H’cap – Aberama Gold @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Aberama Gold has been supremely well handicapped and can build on her fifth last time out up at Ayr. Mark Winn is one of my favourite jockeys at the moment, and his crucial three pound claim can make the difference. With three pounds taken off, a winning mark of 85 comes into play. O’Meara will know that and also will know that he can perform on any sort of ground. A wide draw will help too and puts Aberama Gold closest to the money.

    Tim Easterby is another who likes to get involved with the big handicaps and has a decent hand here. Hyperfocus is the one that I’m intrigued in, as he’s great on anything with soft in the going, and a mark of 94 is doable, particularly when he finished second in a York sprint on the same mark two years ago. 16/1 (Boylesports) is too bigger price to ignore.

     

    WALKING AWAY, WITH IT

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    3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group Two) – My Prospero @ Evs (10Bet, BetUK)

    William Haggas will have has this race lined up more than seven days in advance for My Prospero. We’ve seen the Haggas team have a bit of a rise and fall this season, not producing winners at Ascot, but starting to get back on track. He ain’t giving up. You have to rewind back to 2013 when he last won this race, but York is in his DNA. My Prospero will love the ground, and can build on his two Group One runs this season, by dropping down a grade. If he doesn’t win, I shall be suffering from Insomnia for weeks.

    In other news Craig David is performing afterwards (spot the references above)

    The very best of luck!

  • King George VI Day Best Bets – The Top Three

    King George VI Day Best Bets – The Top Three

     

    The last few weeks for The Top Three column have been frustrating.

    Losses for Tower Of London and Rosscarbery were tough pills to swallow and last week’s NAP, Lezoo, was a non-runner on account of the ground.

    This weekend, if you read Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, you could be sitting on one nice slip ahead of Saturday’s Valiant Stakes (she will be one of the bets included below) and if you backed Simca Mille for the King George before he was taken out of the race by connections, then I do feel for you.

    Personally, when looking through Simca Mille’s form and pedigree, I had him down as a ground versatile horse who had performed a career-best effort on Good to Soft.

    Of course, connections know the horse best and he won on Good ground last time out, but his scratching from Ascot’s feature race came as a surprise.

    Anyway, with one dart fired incorrectly, let’s plough on into this week’s The Top Three.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Random Harvest @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Starting with the aforementioned Group 3 Valiant Stakes, Random Harvest looks like a standout bet at 10/3 with William Hill.

    At an ante-post stage on Wednesday, Ed Walker’s five-year-old was 8/1 in a field where Prosperous Voyage was still in; now more than half the price, I’m still keen to keep her on the side.

    Firstly, Roger Varian’s Ameynah is the money horse of the race (10/3 from 9/2), however, having her first run for 454 days on an unproven going description would put me off, especially due to the fact her dam, Tazffin, won on Good twice and placed in a Listed event on Good to Firm.

    In fairness, Random Harvest isn’t the biggest mudlark in the world as her best run to date came in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge on Good and she was a promising second in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Good to Firm before that.

    However, her last victory came on Soft over in Italy, so she could just be a ground versatile type, and hopefully, if she can deal with the conditions, she will come out on top.

     

    3:00 Ascot – Baradar @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Another horse mentioned in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis was Baradar in the International Stakes at 3:00pm.

    The George Boughey-trained five-year-old loves Soft ground, as shown by his third in the Lincoln when getting to the front too soon, as well as his victory on Heavy when beating the race’s favourite, Biggles, in November.

    Furthermore, a look at her pedigree shows that his dam, Go Lovely Rose, was third on Heavy and second on Soft, so this half-brother to Roseman, the runner-up in the 2020 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, should love every bit of give in Ascot’s going.

    Also, on his second-last run at Ascot in the Victoria Cup, the Muhaarar gelding dwelt out of the stalls, shifted across the track to the nearside rail, and made up plenty of ground when beaten by five lengths; Perotto, who won two starts later, finished one place behind and Spycatcher, a Group 3 winner in France after, completed the race in fourth.

    Off a lenient mark of 96, if everything falls into place, Kevin Stott could be on for an Amo Racing double depending on King Of Steel’s performance in the King George.

     

    3:15 Ascot – My Prospero @ 6/5 with BoyleSports – 5pt Win

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    Finally, as shown by my five-point outlay, my NAP of July is over at York with My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.

    Last year, a William Haggas and Tom Marquand horse forced me to tears as Dubai Honour lost at odds-on to Sir Busker, so this time around, hopefully, there isn’t a repeat.

    The Iffraaj colt was comfortably Haggas’ second-best horse in the yard last year behind the incredible Baaeed, however, he has yet to get off the mark this season in two attempts.

    That wouldn’t worry me too much as the races he has lost in included a Lockinge Stakes over the wrong distance and a hot renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes where he drifted before the off and stayed on at the finish.

    In a quieter Group 2 race, the four-year-old would have to seriously disappoint in order not to win and, like I said on the Only Fools Love Horses preview on Wednesday, this could be a ‘penalty kick’.

    I’ve jinxed it, haven’t I?

  • King George VI Stakes – Ante-post analysis

    King George VI Stakes – Ante-post analysis

     

    Do you remember Christmas time as a kid?

    The endless build-up for weeks and weeks just so you can wake up bright and early in anticipation of an amazing day.

    Right now, amongst endless train journeys to and from London, there is only one race I can think about and that is this weekend’s King George VI Stakes.

    15 of the best 1m4f horses from the UK and France clashing at Ascot; how can you not love that?

    Anyway, let’s stop talking because here are my ante-post picks for Saturday.

     

    Nothing Random about her chances

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    Beginning with 2:25 at Ascot, Random Harvest looks to be a few points too big at 8/1 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes.

    Taking a small scan at her opponents, Prosperous Voyage wouldn’t want soft ground, Grande Dame needs to put last time out behind her, and Ameynah hasn’t run since her third in the 2022 1000 Guineas.

    Then if you look back to Ed Walker’s five-year-old and read her form, her second at Royal Ascot to Rogue Millenium was very good and she gave three pounds away to Prosperous Voyage when second at Epsom in conditions that suited Ralph Beckett’s Group 1 winner better.

    Back with some dig underneath her feat, ground she won on in a Group 3 in France on soft ground, she should go close at 8/1.

     

    Purple Rain

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    The race proceeding the feature event, the International Stakes Handicap, looks like a competitive contest to work out, however, the purple colours of Baradar at 7/1 with William Hill shine very brightly.

    Working on the basis of good to soft/soft ground for the weekend if Ascot receives its intended rain on Thursday and Saturday, that will suit George Boughey’s five-year-old right down to the ground.

    Firstly, the Muhaarar gelding beat Biggles, the 6/1 ante-post favourite, on heavy going at Doncaster last November when receiving six pounds; on Saturday, he will receive seven pounds from Ralph Beckett’s six-year-old following his Newmarket win recently.

    Secondly, his third in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster in April can be upgraded as, in my opinion, jockey Kevin Stott got to the front too early, allowing Migration and Awaal to sneak by.

    Down to a workable mark of 96, I think this race looks almost perfect for Baradar, so hopefully, he can do the business.

     

    The French supercar

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    Looking at the 15-strong field, initially, I wanted to know what Simca Mille meant and after some research, the Simca 1000 (Mille) was an inexpensive, modern car that was sold in France between 1961 and 1978.

    Admittedly, this wasn’t a supercar as my subtitle suggests, but this Saturday, I’m hoping that Stephane Wattel’s version of the saloon vehicle can power to success in style at 33/1 with William Hill in the King George VI Stakes.

    Like Baradar, the Tamayuz four-year-old will relish any rain that comes down based on his second in the Group 1 Prix Ganay in April and his previous win in the Group 2 Prix d’Harcourt.

    Furthermore, his victory last year in the Group 2 Prix Niel on soft ground over 12 furlongs when seemingly green as grass after hitting the front early is promising in a field like this as not many have proven themselves – or had the chance to prove themselves – at 1m4f in worsening conditions.

    Are there classy animals in the race? Yes. Will it be tough to give Auguste Rodin nine pounds? Yes. However, these pieces are all about discovering ante-post value, and from my point of view, he is exactly that.

  • Four To Follow: Doing A Rain Dance

    Whilst Europe is baking, we’re stuck with typical British Summer rain. But that’s not all bad, as there are some cracking bets to be had on a subdued Saturday. Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh, whilst Newbury and Market Rasen are the focus in the UK. Here is this week’s four to follow.

     

    Newbury

    SHADWELL SHOW

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    15:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Ehraz @ 12/1 (General)

    Shadwell have had a great record in the race in recent times, winning four out of the last ten. Jim Crowley knows his way around a decent Shadwell sprinter, and has also won this race four times. Blinkers are on for the first time, which can be seen as a positive in a decent sized field like this. And a nice middle draw should also suit nicely. With the rain on its way, it ticks another box for Ehraz as his best record comes on ground worse than good to firm. For Lezoo backers, she doesn’t have a great record on ground worse than good-to-firm, which is a big concern for me.

     

    Market Rasen

    AN OLD FAVORUITE

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    15:15 – Summer Plate H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Francky Du Berlais @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    It’s great to see a bit of Summer jumps action at Market Rasen, and at Cartmel too, and it’s also great to see a familiar name in their premier race. Francky Du Berlais has won this race for the previous two years, and won a right ding-dong against La Domaniale last year. La Domaniale is up 12 pounds from last year’s nose-off, but has improved massively since then and is a fair mark. Whereas Francky hasn’t won since, and goes off a mark one pound higher than last year’s winning mark. But he loves the track, and seems to come into his own in the Summer months. It could be a legendary three-peat for a legendary horse.

    Keep an eye out for Killer Clown, who came third off the back of a wind operation for the Emma Lavelle team. He suits the profile of a Summer horse, preferring good ground throughout the Winter, and his mark of 138 will suit him, condiering he came second in the Greatwood Gold Cup off the same. A nice 12/1 shot (10Bet, BetUK)

     

    Curragh

    WILD WEATHER

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    14:35 – Scurry Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Hurricane Ivor @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    There are two good reason why I’ve gone with this horse. One is because of the name, keeping the theme of the weather. And the other is because of this horse’s record in the rain. It has won five races out of 13 on ground ranging between good-to-soft and heavy, which isn’t a bad strike rate for a sprinter. His previous two starts at the Curragh have reulted in a win and a third, before not taking to the ground in the Wokingham. The other thing is that he is off a workable mark of 99 and a nice inside draw in four. There are lot of positives to this horse, even with the weather.

    Another horse who likes the rain is Blairmayne. His last two starts have been on soft/heavy ground and have resulted in a win and a tight third. He sprung up the handicap from a mark of 82 to 89, but is back to a mark of 85 and Blairmayne can take full advantage. Wide draws, aren’t necessarily a bad thing at the Curragh either. 14/1 is a fair each-way shout (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

     

    DANCING IN THE RAIN

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    15:45 – IRISH OAKS (GROUP ONE) – SAVETHELASTDANCE @ EVENS (BetVictor)

    The simple fact is on her four starts, three of them have come on soft to heavy ground and she has won two of them. She won one of them at Chester by 22 lengths, she ran a great race despite finishing second to Soul Sister, who didn’t back up the form in the Grand Prix de Paris. She has everything in her favour, including three stablemates to guard her so she can waltz home and pick up Aidan O’Brien’s third classic of the season.

    Azazat could be worth a punt on the without market. She has also won on soft to heavy ground and wasn’t too far behind Savethelastdance at Leopardstown. She is by a Derby winner, so there is no worry about the trip and could have won the Munster Oaks if she wasn’t bumped at the finish by Rosscarberry. She’s tough and might get a place if she’s lucky. 14/1 (William Hill) is her best price outright.

    The very best of luck!

  • 14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    After the onslaught of Royal Ascot, the Irish Derby, and the Newmarket July Festival, this weekend looks like a comparatively calm few days.

    That being said, the Group 1 Irish Oaks is still a race to look forward to, and yet, this week’s The Top Three features three horses away from the feature event.

    Before we dive into those picks, here’s a quick look at the current P&L.

    Despite the near miss of Tower Of London and the win for Swingalong last week, a nine-point loss on Saturday has put us in the red by 8.9 points.

    With a big week needed, here is a look at my fancies from the Curragh, Newbury, and Market Rasen.

    3:00 Newbury – Lezoo @ 5/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    In an instance of deja vu from Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, LEZOO at 5/1 with William Hill is my big hope for the weekend.

    For my full reasoning on her chances, please click on the link to this week’s recent piece, but now with just one day to go, we can analyse how conditions may suit her.

    My worry on Wednesday was the idea of soft conditions, but with a lack of rain over the last 48 hours and just a few showers expected tomorrow, the surface at Newbury should be good racing ground.

    That will only benefit Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old filly and may even inconvenience a few others in the race.

    The closer I get to Saturday, the more I find it hard not to see her as the winner – though of her competitors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shartash outrun his odds at 14/1 – and hopefully, she can kick off the weekend positively.

    3:15 Market Rasen – Killer Clown @ 11/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    With the five places on offer at BetVictor for this year’s Summer Plate at Market Rasen, KILLER CLOWN at 11/1 looks like a good bet.

    Unlike Newbury, rain will hit the Lincolnshire track overnight and they could pick up another downpour on raceday tomorrow, so the ground might creep into some description of soft.

    Plenty of the 16 runners in the Summer Plate will want good, summer ground, however, any mention of soft in the going description should play into the hands of Emma Lavelle’s nine-year-old.

    Officially rated 138, two pounds below his last winning mark of March 2022, the lightly-raced Getaway gelding had a wind surgery before his staying-on third at Uttoxeter last time out.

    The age-old stereotype of ‘second run after a wind op’ will be on his side tomorrow and, now he is seemingly well-handicapped, I think he should be feared in the 3:15 at Market Rasen and he is my main Summer Plate bet.

    4:20 Curragh – Rosscarbery @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, over the water at the Curragh, the race directly after the Irish Oaks is the Group 2 International Curragh Cup and ROSSCARBERY will carry my money.

    The favourite in the race is Emily Dickinson, and although she is obviously a good horse, I’m struggling to work out why this is the case.

    Paddy Twomey’s mare by Sea The Stars has faced the Dubawi filly twice in 13 months and has had the beating of her every single time.

    The first of which was at Leopardstown in the Group 3 Stanerra Stakes where she gave 17 pounds away and beat her by a short head, and the second came in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where she finished fifth behind Emily Upjohn, half-a-length ahead of Emily Dickinson while giving six pounds away.

    That level of form reads well and although rain will hit the Curragh on Saturday, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old loves, Rosscarbery doesn’t mind the mud.

    Off level weights tomorrow and in receipt of weight from a few of the geldings in the race, my faith is with the second-favourite Rosscarbery under Billy Lee.