Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    It’s the turn of the future stars of the track at the Curragh today, as Day Two of the Irish Champions Festival dawns upon us. Two heavyweights of the O’Brien stable tussle each other in the National Stakes, whilst it looks a bit more open in the Moyglare. Here’s a Sunday Special of Four to Follow.

     

    Power Over Princess

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    2:55 – Flying Five Stakes (Group One) – Art Power @ 5/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    For some time on Best Of Bets, Highfield Princess has been the go-to horse for us. The story, the speed, all of it she’s been a revelation of the sprinting world. But she’s been hitting the frame this year, and I’m more interested in winners and that leads me to Art Power. Unbeaten at the Curragh, that course form is significant above the other horses.

    He’s five from five, and has performed at Group One level too, his best performance was finishing third in the 2021 Diamond Jubilee. With all that in mind, and with Highfield Princess just not cutting the mustard in three Group One’s this season, Art Power is the perfect Curragh champion.

     

    Fortuna Favours The Brave

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    3:25 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

    Ylang Ylang is all the talk, but looking on her performance in the Silver Flash didn’t look as convincing as it might have seen. She made all but Vespertillo was closing all the time, and without pace in the race Yland Ylang is vulnerable. Porta Fortuna isn’t.

    A Royal Ascot winner, beating Matrika who won the Airlie Stud Stakes next time out, she finished well behind the colt Bucanero Fuerte in the Phoenix Stakes. Stepping up in trip will be beneficial, and with no boys to face she may have an easier task. Frankie Dettori is always an eye-catching booking, and won’t want to leave Ireland empty handed.

     

    Fuerte To Forte

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    4:00 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group One) – Bucanero Fuerte @ 9/2 (888Sport)

    Who is the only Group One winner in the field? Bucanero Fuerte. Who won by four lengths in a Group One? Bucanero Fuerte. Who is massively overpriced for the race? Bucanero Fuerte. For me he holds all the aces. Even if Aidan O’Brien has two fantastic looking two-year-olds, according to Seamie Heffernan, they’re not. To accentuate my point further, O’Brien hasn’t won this race since Churchill back in 2016. The fact that a Group One winning two-year-old is bigger 3/1 makes no sense to me. It’ll be a fascinating race nonetheless.

     

    King Of The Curragh

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    4:35 – Irish St. Leger (Group One) – Kyprios @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    We’ve missed Kyprios this year in the staying division. His talents last season were incredible, and there seems to be a void needing to be filled this year. Courage Mon Amis never came on from the Ascot Gold Cup, and we’ve had a lack of dominance. But the return for Kyprios heralds a return to normality, and even at 90% he can put his stablemate Emily Dickinson into submission. Aidan O’Brien might have a great crop of two-year-olds, but he has a shining jewel here, and Kyprios is back to defend his Irish St. Leger title the Curragh.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend has already been one to remember, not just because of the horses, but purely thanks to Jerry Hannon’s commentary for the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes.

    All jokes aside, yesterday was an enjoyable watch from post to pillar and for The Top Three readers, we were a head away from landing an 8/1 winner in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes.

    Alas, it wasn’t to be and with Gallant Lion’s slight disappointment at Ascot alongside Urban Sprawl’s tame effort in the last at Leopardstown, we are searching for a winner today.

    So, with some brilliant races ahead of us, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Curragh – Insinuendo @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first Group race of the day is the Blandford Stakes and back for another bite at the cherry is Insinuendo having run into Above The Curve – a future four-time Group 1-placed mare for Aidan O’Brien – in last year’s renewal.

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    The six-year-old by Gleneagles has been the stable star for Willie McCreery for several years and over the last 12 months, she has taken connections to Champions Day at Ascot and as well as the Bahrain International Trophy.

    Despite her age in a contest that includes eight three-year-olds, meaning she will give away six pounds to them, she is the one with the best form in the book.

    Firstly, she gave five pounds away to Luxembourg – a future Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes winner – in last year’s Group 3 Royal Whip when only beaten by a neck.

    Two months later, she rocked up at 80/1 in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes and put in a remarkable effort on a slightly unfavourable good-to-soft surface to finish third to Emily Upjohn.

    Following an average run in the Bahrain International Trophy, she began this season with a comfortable success over a mile on soft-to-heavy ground at the Curragh; considering her best form is over 10 furlongs on good ground, this run can be marked up.

    With two victories at the course and some good efforts in defeat over course and distance, Insinuendo looks to be a cracking each-way bet in the Blandford Stakes and thanks to her two-month break from the track, she should be fresh and ready to go.

     

    3:25 Curragh – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes is a fascinating contest with nine runners set to head under the starter’s orders.

    As with juvenile races at this time of the year, plenty in here could unleash potential ability that they have yet to fully show, however, without knowing what will happen for sure, Porta Fortuna is the solid option at 15/2.

    Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, she has the unenviable task of taking on his dad’s Ylang Ylang at the head of the market as well as Willie McCreery’s Vespertillo who was second to today’s even-money favourite before her success in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes last month.

    That being said, Porta Fortuna is definitely the form horse of the contest thanks to her second to Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time out, a performance that can be marked up as she raced predominantly on the near side which was slightly unfavourable throughout the day.

    Prior to that run, she was sent off a well-backed 5/1 for the Group 3 Albany Stakes and won impressively under Frankie Dettori – who will get the leg up today – and the form of that race has been boosted thanks to Matrika’s Group 2 win on her next start.

    Furthermore, out of the Holy Roman Emperor mare Too Precious, a winner over 1m4f, today’s seven-furlong trip looks a step in the right direction and even though her sire is the brilliant sprinter Caravaggio, he has had more runners and winners between seven and nine furlongs than in the sprinting distances since his first crop hit the track in 2021.

    Of course, the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes looks like a tough race to win, but the form horse is Porta Fortuna and she is a big price at 13/2.

     

    4:00 Curragh – Bucanero Fuerte @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes is my race of the weekend based on pure excitement levels as the potential clash of City Of Troy, Bucanero Fuerte, and Henry Longfellow is mouthwatering.

    Although the Aidan O’Brien-trained first-string is a well-fancied favourite, I’m willing to go against the Ballydoyle pair with Bucanero Fuerte.

    Although City Of Troy’s performance to beat Haatem by six lengths in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes was visually impressive, I think that the form of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes victory is better and Adrian Murray’s Wootton Bassett colt he made all on his side of the track – despite the attempted implementation of a pacemaker with stablemate Launch – was no small feat.

    Luckily for connections, owner and stablemate Cuban Thunder is next to Bucanero Fuerte in stall four today, so he will have an easy lead into the contest.

    So on form, he has a good chance, but what about his step up to seven furlongs?

    A glance at his pedigree shows that his full-brother Wooded started life as a seven-furlong horse and was successful on his second start at the trip, finished fourth to Pinatubo in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, and then won the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye over five furlongs on his final career start.

    His other half-brother, Beat Le Bon, won the 2019 edition of the valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood and has since placed over two miles in America over hurdles, so his pedigree would suggest today’s trip should be no problem.

    At 4/1 against a 4/7 favourite, he looks like a good price for his quality and hopefully, he can produce a stunning performance at the Curragh.

  • Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    As we approach the end of the season (and the start of the jumps!), the stars are all reappearing for one final hurrah! First up is Irish Champions weekend, and we head to Leopardstown for a tasty looking Irish Champion Stakes. There’s also the small matter of the Sprint Cup at Haydock as well. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Long Time, No Tah-see

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    2:45 – Coolmore ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (Group One) – Tahiyra @ Evs (General)

    Tahiyra is an undoubtable talent, but she’s only ran three times this season. Which makes her return to the track all the more tantalising. However, the Matron Stakes has the habit to throw up some real surprises. No favourite has won since Legatissimo in 2015, and has been the only favourite to win in the last 10 years. But Tahiyra is clear on ratings, versatile on ground with a slight bias to firmness, and has every right to be favourite, even after a period off the track.

    To follow her in, Just Beautiful looked as though she could become a talking horse when winning the Lanwades Stud Stakes all the way back in May. But she’s been off the track for some time, and is making a crucial step up to Group One level. Her previous form says she’ll get the ground, and has a couple of decent formlines. Interesting at 9/1 (William Hill)

     

    Not Just The Boys

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    3:20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 11/2 (General)

    This looks, on paper, one of the races of the season. Two three-year-olds who have captured the racing world, plus plenty of Group One experience in the mix as well. But it’s Nashwa I’m drawn to after her performance in the International Stakes. Many people disregarded her, but she finished in between, arguably, the two best horses in the race. She was Only beaten by a length that day, and comes to Leopardstown with conditions on her side, plus John Gosden’s record in the race in recent years puts her in the frame and make the race her own.

    Spare a thought for Luxembourg who seems to be totally disregarded, despite having a good career, three Group One’s including the race last year. He wasn’t up to standard, but you could argue he drops to a preferred trip here. And just because Ryan Moore is on the other horse, doesn’t necessarily means he’s on the right one. Each-way claims at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Too E-Aasy

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    4:30 – Paddy Power Stakes (Group Three) – Al Aasy @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    It beggars belief how Al Aasy is second favourite. His performances, whilst at Listed level, have been eye-catching and he steps up in trip for the first time since his reappearance in the Fred Archer. But he has narrowly been denied at the top level, and it’s that previous Group One experience that may just put him over the line against Adelaide River, who hasn’t won this season, or since his debut. Whilst Adelaide River has disappointed, Al Aasy has made smooth progress and can follow up here at Leopardstown.

     

    Haydock

    Slam Dunk Finish

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    3:35 – Sprint Cup (Group One) – Shaquille @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Shaquille has very much picked up the gauntlet as the top sprinter of the season. From one Northern horse (Highfield Princess) to another, Shaquille has impressed with the turn of foot unlike any other sprinter at the top level. He may dwell at the start, but his jet engine propels him to the front to pick of those who are no match for him. And on paper, it looks another open and shut case.

    Or does it? Sacred was incredibly unlucky at Royal Ascot when denied by 80/1 shot Khaadem, and has been out for revenge since. Whilst previous form suggests his best distance is over seven, on quicker ground it’s much better over six. It was evident when disappointing in the City of York Stakes last time out, and the quick turnaround plus drop in trip may give him a chance to spoil Shaq’s shindig. Next best in the field at 17/2 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    d he looked Is anyone else eager with excitement for Irish Champions Weekend?

    Across both the UK and Ireland, there are 14 Group-level contests across three tracks, seven of which are Group 1s as well as competitive handicaps like the Old Borough Cup at Haydock, Lavassa Stakes at Ascot, and the Pentingo at Leopardstown.

    That is an insane quantity of quality that horse racing fans should be licking their lips for.

    With that in mind – though definitely without the same worldwide level of anticipation – I have three horses to consider for Saturday with a bonus column for Sunday’s action potentially in the works.

    So, let’s not delay anymore and get onto the matter at hand.

     

    3:10 Ascot – Gallant Lion @ 5/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As any follower of me on social media knows, I am a sucker for Tony Carroll-trained horses.

    Whether they are walking around the parade ring ahead of a 0-50 Classified Stakes at Brighton or competing in a competitive handicap around Wolverhampton, at least one of my eyes is always on them.

    Thankfully, this season has been an enjoyable one for the Mill House Racing faithful and it could get even better on Saturday if Gallant Lion obliges in the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot.

    The three-year-old by the late Roaring Lion has been in the tracker ever since my interview with Tony in April where the experienced trainer gave a nice – though not gushing – word for him ahead of his three-year-old campaign.

    “We bought him at the Horses In Training sales and he is a nice, sound horse who was gelded by his previous trainer, Mr Bell.”

    Maybe the Brighton specialist was keeping his cards close to his chest because the beautiful grey has won four races in a row at four different tracks under four different jockeys on three varying ground conditions, most recently at Windsor in the Racing League.

    The handicapper rewarded connections with just three pounds for his neck victory over The Whipmaster, a potentially lenient view as he had to do the hard work from the front and was a gutsy winner.

    Although a drop of rain could potentially benefit his chances, the gelding has won on good-to-firm twice and a look at his pedigree (Roaring Lion out of a Lando mare) wouldn’t immediately suggest that soft ground is a necessity.

    My whole heart will be wishing Gallant Lion home at Ascot tomorrow and with good reason as the 5-1-shot has a good chance to make it five from five.

     

    3:25 Kempton – Seven Questions @ 8/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Away from Ascot and over on the all-weather, the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes is a race that, although not always, can produce a decent horse.

    Mischief Magic was successful 12 months ago on his Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint success, so there is some decent heritage to this six-furlong event.

    Although this year’s renewal doesn’t look vintage on first viewing, the race could set up for Seven Questions under Callum Shepherd.

    The Kodiac two-year-old has been a busy gelding this season thanks to six track appearances and three victories for George Scott.

    In all three of his wins, the £58,000 purchase was impressive on the eye over both five and six furlongs on alternating ground conditions.

    As the age-old stereotype goes, good horses win on any ground and the experienced juvenile is a lovely galloper when there is open air to do so.

    However, he was unable to show this trait last time out at Ripon in the Listed Two Yrs Old Trophy Stakes when third behind the well-fancied Task Force.

    Although he broke nicely from stall five, he was quickly shoved into a pocked between horses and it wasn’t until the one-furlong pole flew past that Darragh Keenan could begin to get serious, but his attempt at a race-winning move was too late and he settled for a bronze medal.

    In isolation, that race can be marked up as the winner is a regally bred Frankel colt who I personally rate highly and the horses around him – notably Shagraan, Bombay Bazar, and Asdana – had all shown good qualities heading into the race.

    Last year, the first four home were all drawn in stall eight or higher, so out of trap number nine, Seven Questions is the play in the Sirenia Stakes.

     

    5:40 Leopardstown – Urban Sprawl @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This couldn’t be an Irish Champions Weekend article without putting up one horse from Leopardstown on Saturday, and although this horse isn’t in one of the feature races, Urban Sprawl at 14/1 is who I’m with.

    Similar to my quoting of ‘good horses go in any ground’, I’ve gone to the racing phrasebook again and pulled out the classic line of ‘back (insert name) blind at (insert track)’.

    Although this usually applies to Tony Carroll at Brighton, I’ve adapted this version to say: ‘Back the Johnstons blind at Leopardstown.’

    This is for good reason as the Johnstons – both when the license was under Mark’s name and then with Mark & Charlie – operate at a 29% strike rate and +£17.08 profit (to a £1 level stake) at Leopardstown from 36 runners.

    That course form is an interesting statistic and tomorrow, Urban Sprawl will be the first runner under just Charlie Johnston’s name to hit the track and he looks well-handicapped off 90.

    The highly-tried chestnut colt was victorious at Goodwood in May when too good for the likes of Tafreej, Dark Thirty, Classic, and Saturnalia, four horses who have won since.

    Urban Sprawl then went to Royal Ascot and finished third in a hot renewal of the Britannia Stakes behind the winner Docklands and runner-up New Endeavour who has franked the form with his second in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury next time out.

    Three runs since over seven furlongs, two of which in softer conditions, haven’t seen him at his best, though his last outing at Goodwood when behind the well-handicapped Rhoscolyn was full of promise.

    Back to a mile and on better ground, Urban Sprawl should benefit from a six-pound three-year-old allowance and looks to have a good chance on Irish soil.

  • Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Following the immense highs of York’s Ebor meeting, Beverley and Sandown Racecourse are under the ITV spotlight this weekend for a fair day of action.

    But first, a look at how The Top Three is sitting heading into September.

    Overall, there have been 74 selections in the series since May 13th. Until the start of Royal Ascot on June 20th, the series was in profit by 28.65 points, however, after no winners through the entire week and a rough run until Glorious Goodwood, the P&L dropped into the negatives.

    Despite this, a profit of 17.45 points at the Ebor Festival means that The Top Three, after nearly four months, is in profit by 3.585 points.

    That isn’t an impressive number, but profit is profit and hopefully, this form can continue heading into the next few weeks.

    So, with that in mind, here are today’s three fancies.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Indemnify @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The first bet from Sandown Racecourse comes in the opening seven-furlong handicap and having seen plenty of money all week, today could be the day for Indemnify to return to the winners’ enclosure at 10/3.

    The four-year-old grey by Lope De Vega has raced four times this season, though his only victory of the year occurred with previous trainer Roger Varian at Sandown over a furlong further than today’s trip.

    The gelding has raced once over seven furlongs during his career when second on the all-weather at Newcastle in a novice event beaten narrowly by Baltimore Boy.

    Since then, connections opted to run him over longer distances and recently, when racing over a mile on his last three starts, jockey Kieran O’Neill has consistently dropped him out towards the rear of the field, notably when fifth to the well-handicapped Perotto on stable debut for Alice Haynes in the Coral Challenge Handicap at Sandown.

    These tactics act as a contrast to his three-year-old season where his best performances came from prominent positions.

    Potentially, you could see a reversal in racing position today to send him into a more prominent position from the start in order to use his useful stamina trait.

    Off a competitive mark of 91, Indemnify ran an eye-catching race at Sandown – a course he is very familiar with – 13 days ago and if he can take advantage of a potential lack of pace in the contest, he could be the one to side with.

     

    2:25 Sandown – Midnight Mile @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As discussed on Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis, despite the main play of Astral Beau at the prices, Midnight Mile was also on my agenda for the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes and with her still remaining in the race, she gets the nod at 13/2.

    Having been with her last time out at Haydock when third to Al Aasy in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes, she performed well under Oisin Orr for the majority of the contest before failing to see out the full 10 furlongs.

    In running, her last outing was a tricky contest as she sat more prominently than her York victory two starts ago and hit the front with two furlongs to go, so all Orr could do was press the button and see if she could withstand 400 metres at top speed.

    Unfortunately, she didn’t and was passed by Al Aasy and El Drama, but against the more experienced horses, she still ran a great race.

    Back at a mile today on rain-softened ground, she could get a nice tow into the race from Mysterious Love and Nibras Angel if connections revert to tactics and sit her in midfield.

    If returning to her best, she could be a dangerous proposition in receipt of five pounds from her elders, so with that in mind, I’ll be siding with Midnight Mile.

     

    2:40 Beverley – Silky Wilkie @ 5/2 General – 2pt Win

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    The Beverley Bullet includes a field of just seven runners this year and unfortunately for readers of Wednesday’s Ante-Post Analysis, Rage Of Bamby is not one of them.

    I can only apologise for her absence, but as a replacement, Silky Wilkie looks like a good replacement to be with at 5/2.

    The four-year-old by Mehmas has had an action-packed – but largely successful – campaign for Karl Burke and owners Middleham Park Racing having raced without a break since November 2022.

    Although there would be a small worry about him being on the go for so long, the £17,500 purchase has only finished outside of the first four on three occasions in 14 runs.

    This streak of consecutive runs includes a second to Annaf at Lingfield in January, a short-head second in the Epsom Dash, and a second in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York in July, all of which is good form.

    Silky Wilkie returned to the track after a 27-day break on Thursday for a Racing League handicap over five furlongs, a race in which he ran promisingly to finish fourth when not asked too many questions.

    His task in handicap company off a mark of 108 was tough two days ago, so today’s Listed Beverley Bullet should be more to his liking and hopefully, the hardy four-year-old can show them a clean pair of heels.

  • Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    After a fantastic Ebor week, we’re back to normal Saturday racing. But there is some fantastic betting heats, including the Beverley Bullet and the tricky Atalanta Stakes. Plus there’s a decent looking two-year-old race at Sandown too. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Aheredia of the game

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    2:25 – Atalanta Stakes (Group Three) – Heredia @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Atalanta Stake is often a hard race to decipher. There have been three double-priced winners in the last four runnings. Another stat of the race is that only one five-year-old has won this race in its history (Lady Bear in 2003). There has, also, never been a dual winner of the race.

    This draws me to Heredia, who is making the step up to Group Three level for the first time in a year. She’s been very consistent, with two seconds and a convincing win last time out. Her ability to go on all kinds of ground shows that it won’t be a problem, but an outside draw may cause a small issue. But held up off the pace, she could make a late burst up the hill late on.

     

    Written in the stars?

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    3:38 – Solario Stakes (Group Three) – Starlore @ 2/1 (General)

    Breeding suggests that Starlore will win this race, as his sire Kingman did back in 2013. And plenty of favourites have won this and gone on to better things. Masar and Too Darn Hot are probably the most notable out of the last ten years, as well as Kingman.

    But Starlore may possess star quality. It might not have been a convincing debut when idling at the finish to hold on by a nose, but the form from that race has worked out, Arabian Crown in particular stands out. With a small field, and the best jockey on board (Ryan Moore), he seems a little overprices at 2/1.

    And talking of Starlore’s debut, Devil’s Point also franked the form when winning next time out at Ffos Las in convincing fashion. On debut, he only finished within one-and-a-half lengths of the winner and might not be far behind here at 11/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Beverley

    A rocket for the Bullet

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    2:40 – William Hill Beverley Bullet (Listed) – Apollo One @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred)

    Apollo One has had a quiet, yet consistent season. Four runs and four places, that isn’t bad form considering they were all in Class 2/Heritage Handicaps. But ground versatile, and with an ideal draw in stall two there may be nothing to stop this rocket finally grabbing a much needed win.

    But spare a thought for Tis Marvellous, the dual winner of the famous race. It could be the swansong for the legend of the Westwood and what a way it would be to bow out. He’s won from stall six before, and he may have the upper hand in what looks a tactical race. 7/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

     

    Chester

    Flying to the front

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    3:20 – Chester Stakes (Listed) – Lone Eagle @ 100/30 (General)

    Lone Eagle’s best performance this season came over this C&D back in May. He finished behind Hamish, and hasn’t looked anything like that day in May since. It may be because he caught the Group One bug, disappointing in both the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

    He’s tumbled down to Listed level, which should be his bread and butter, and Ralph Beckett will want to keep his winning streak in the race going landing the last two editions on the Roodee.

    Military Order hasn’t raced since the Derby, but a hike up in distance around a tricky track like Chester doesn’t fill me with confidence. And finishing last in the Derby speaks volumes that he didn’t like the track, and Chester is often a good trial to deal with the bends.

    The very best of luck!

  • Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Although we may complain about the quality and quantity of racing from time to time, you’d find it hard to crab what was an impeccable week of racing at the York Ebor Festival.

    From Relief Rally to Warm Heart, Absurde to Mostahdaf, the four-day event on the Knavesmire truly delivered competitive action and great results.

    Yes, this week may not be vintage, but Saturdays like this are still decent betting products and they make the big weeks of Flat racing even better.

    So, with that in mind, here are my ante-post plays for this coming weekend.

     

    Bamby to Beverley

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    The Listed Beverley Bullet is one of the feature races of the weekend worth £25,000 to the winner.

    Many of the 11 entries deserve respect – including York handicap winner Equilateral and last year’s victor Tis Marvellous – but it’s Rage Of Bamby at a general price of 14/1 that has grabbed my attention.

    Eve Johnson-Houghton’s daughter of Wootton Bassett is one of the few unexposed types at the distance as she finished a good second last time out in a fillies handicap win by Designer at York on her first start at five furlongs.

    She sat in midfield for the majority of the contest before Charlie Bishop sent her to win the race up the far side rail, and although she hit the front with over a furlong to go, her well-handicapped rival collared her on the line.

    The run was a bit surprising as for the majority of her career, she has been campaigned over longer trips, notably when second to Commissioning, a future Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner, in the seven-furlong Group 2 Rockfel Stakes.

    If you watch back that run and stop the replay two furlongs from home, she looks like the obvious winner, however, she didn’t quite see out the trip, so this season’s drop in distance has been beneficial.

    Although her pedigree wouldn’t scream that five furlongs is her optimum trip, her damsire is Sakhee’s Secret who was a classy sprinter on his day, so there are glimmers to suggest the testing five-furlong course at Beverley could suit.

    With the added bonus of a five-pound three-year-old fillies’ allowance against the older colts and geldings, she is officially the best at the weights and if she can reproduce her York run, she has a good chance to return back to the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Beau on weather watch

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    It’s always difficult to know what the ground will be like days away from a raceday, however, a quick scan of the forecast predicts a washout day at Sandown on Thursday with potential spells of rain on Friday.

    This rain-softened surface could play into the hands of Astral Beau in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes, a general 9/1-shot.

    Fresh from a 50-day break, the four-year-old by Brazen Beau has improved from winning a handicap off a mark of 81 as a three-year-old to performing in top-class Group-level races.

    If conditions do take a turn for the worst, her Listed Doncaster Mile Stakes victory at the start of the season puts her in a good place to handle it, yet if for any reason Sandown misses the incoming rain – which shouldn’t happen – then her third in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on good-to-firm ground behind the Group 1-winning Prosperous Voyage also reads well.

    As for her other two starts this season, she‘a been unlucky to run into several fillies who are at the top of the division.

    Firstly, she finished third to Via Sistina in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes, a horse who has won the Group 1 Irish Oaks since, with Al Husn, a subsequent Group 1 Nassau Stakes winner, less than a length ahead of her in second.

    Fast-forward to her last start in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, she was a good fourth behind the progressive Isaac Shelby (2nd) and Nashwa (1st).

    Nashwa has since finished second to Mostahdaf in the Group 1 Juddmonte International on her latest outing, franking the form of that race.

    Dropped in class for this weekend at the stiff one-mile Sandown course, Astral Beau looks a fair price at 9/1.

     

    Can’t leave Midnight Mile

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    Despite the strong case made for Astral Beau, I think Midnight Mile at 6/1 could be a dangerous rival for the Richard Fahey team.

    She performed with admiration in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes over an extended 10.5 furlongs at Haydock last time out where she probably hit the front too soon and was soon overtaken by El Drama and Al Aasy, two good horses.

    Before that, the way she swept past her rivals in the Listed Lyric Stakes in July was impressive and she has good form behind Oaks winner Soul Sister from this season’s Musidora.

    Returning to a stiff mile on soft ground should see the best out of her, so if you don’t mind backing two horses at each-way prices, both Midnight Mile and Astral Beau deserve respect.

  • York Ebor Festival Day Four: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Some big winners yesterday, with Marhaba The Champ and Coltrane in the first two races. Highfield Princess just couldn’t catch Live In The Dream, and the gamble failed on Kevin Ryan’s two-year-old. But today’s a new day, and we aim to end on a high. Some interesting handicaps, plus the returns of Kinross in the City Of York Stakes.

     

    A Frankie Flourish

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    NAP: City Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 2/1 (BetVictor)

    Kinross is starting to get into the swing of things once again. That Lennox Stakes win proved that he is the best top-class seven furlong specialist, even if Isaac Shelby posed a threat. But last year he produced his most eye-catching win on the Knavesmire before snaffling Europe’s big prizes over 1400 metres. Trainer Ralph Beckett has said that he suits York, and the similar firm conditions won’t be a problem, much like last year. It will be a perfect send-off for one Llanfranco Dettori at one of his favourite meetings, aboard, surely, one of his favourite horses.

     

    From South To North

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    E/W Bet: Strensall Stakes (Group Three) – Chichester @ 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Nostrum is the pick, but Chichester is intriguing. Trawling through the form of each of the six runners that enjoys the firmer ground, with three wins on it in his career. And with some handicappers coming into the race, Chichester can improve on his Listed win over C&D in June, when winning by almost two lengths. He has the Group form and the ground and he could sneak a surprise second, not the first at York this week.

     

    Going for Hat Trick Gold

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    Handicap Best: Constantine H’cap (Heritage) – Aberama Gold @ 8/1 (General)

    Six furlong sprints are what it’s all about at York. And Aberama Gold knows all about it. In a breakout year he’s won a class two handicap by a neck, and then the Stewards’ Cup. Manila Scouse has backed up the form twice, disappointing earlier in the week however, and has claimer on board to take the heavy five pound rise in the weights down to a mere two. There has been no bias in the draw, if slightly mid-to-high, and can do the business of the rail from stall one.

    The Green Man finished third to Aberama Gold at York a month ago and has been kept fresh for the race by trainer Joseph Parr. A winner on firm ground lower down in the classes, he produced a career best with Danny Muscett on board to finish within two lengths of the winner. With the form backed up, and a five pound claimer who knows the horse well, expect the green man to cross the line in the places at 10/1 (General)

    And spare a thought for Anthem National who pulled out of the Great St. Wilfrid due to the soft ground. But at least we know he should get the ground here. Second last time out to Commanche Falls, who followed up again at Newbury, he shouldn’t be discounted just because he’s running for Philip Kirby for the first time. He can outrun his odds at 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Strensall Stakes (Group Three) – Nostrum @ 11/10 (Betfred), Chichester (E/W) @ 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    14:25 – Melrose H’cap (Heritage) – Lordship @ 4/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Vaguely Royal @ 11/1 (888Sport, BetVictor), Fox Journey @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    15:00 – City Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross (NAP) @ 2/1 (BetVictor)

    15:35 – Ebor H’cap (Heritage) – Live Your Dream @ 10/1 (General), Adjuvant @ 12/1 (Boylesports, BetUK), Berkshire Rocco @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

    16:10 – Constantine H’cap (Heritage) – Aberama Gold (HB) @ 8/1 (General), The Green Man @ 10/1 (General), Anthem National @ 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    16:45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Purosangue @ 7/4 (General)

    17:20 – Finale H’cap (Heritage) – Astro King @ 6/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Betfred), Killybegs Warrior @ 16/1 (General), Marie’s Diamond @ 40/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Although there is definitely a chance to turn this around, The Top Three has been in good form during the York Ebor meeting.

    Despite missing Warm Heart thanks to early morning price reasons, all three horses from yesterday’s column made money as Relief Rally won the Lowther Stakes and both Northern Express and One Evening placed at each-way prices.

    Today is a tough day, but hopefully, I’ve found a few to be on the correct side of.

     

    Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes (3:00 York) – Haatem @ 7/1 General – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Gimcrack Stakes is a tough puzzle to work out as already we have experienced juveniles facing new, unexposed rivals at the York Ebor Festival.

    Plenty have the chance to make a massive step up in Group 2 company today, but I’m sticking with the six-time-raced Haatem at 8/1.

    Although there’s the chance that Richard Hannon’s colt by Phoenix Of Spain could still be feeling the effects of his Group 2 Vintage Stakes victory at Goodwood on good-to-soft ground, his form in the book is miles clear of the rivals.

    Last time out, he beat Iberian, a horse connections think highly of, over seven furlongs when seemingly doing enough once he hit the front.

    Prior to then, he was a good second in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes behind Aidan O’Brien’s future Guineas horse City Of Troy and he produced a good performance in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes behind the likes of River Tiber and Bucanero Fuerte.

    Although he has to shoulder a three-pound penalty today, Haatem should be a solid play in a field full of unknowns.

     

    Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35 York) – Aesop’s Fables @ 28/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Call me mad and wishing for a bit too much, but there’s a chance that Aesop’s Fables could return to his best and spring a surprise in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes this afternoon.

    There is precedent from this season to suggest that these once highly-touted Aidan O’Brien horses can turn things around on the biggest stage, after all, he was successful in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot with Age Of Kings who went off as big as 22/1.

    As for today’s hopeful in the Nunthorpe, I’ve been patiently waiting for this three-year-old by No Nay Never to be tried at five furlongs on good ground and for a while, I thought Ballydoyle might find a lower-level race to ease him into things.

    But no, connections have bravely selected the Group 1 Nunthorpe.

    On the face of it, he does have to improve, but he has the ability to do that over this trip as five-and-a-half furlongs is the shortest distance he has ever tried.

    His first run at the trip occurred during his two-length Navan victory on debut, and the second was in April 2023 when he breezed beautifully into the Listed Committed Stakes but found the heavy ground too tough of a task.

    Furthermore, on his last start in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes over six furlongs, he ran well to finish behind Shaquille and ahead of Noble Style which looks to be good form based on what the former has done in two Group 1s since.

    Backing Aesop’s Fables today does require bravery, but I would hate to not trust him on his first start at five furlongs on decent conditions, so for that reason, he makes the list for the third day of the York Ebor meeting.

     

    Class 2 Mile Handicap (5:15 York) – Silver Sword @ 7/1 with Unibet – 1pt EW

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    The final race of the day is a competitive three-year-old handicap with 12 runners in the field, but it’s Dylan Cunha’s Silver Sword that gets the nod.

    By Charm Spirit, Silver Sword has been the flag bearer horse for the Cunha team over the last 12 months and burst onto the scene this season with a victory at Southwell over a mile back in April.

    Connections then stepped the three-year-old up in trip for the Lester Piggott Handicap on Derby Day at Epsom where he produced another good performance, however, the winner Torito just out-stayed him with his impressive stamina.

    Later in the month of June, he went over Pontefract for a one-mile three-year-old handicap in the Sky Bet Sunday Series and although it wasn’t a vintage race, he bolted up under jockey Greg Cheyne off a mark of 86.

    If you put a line through his last run at Goodwood where the combination of soft ground and 10 furlongs didn’t suit him, the gallant grey could still be well-handicapped off 93.

    In a line-up like this, the potential unknown ability of some rivals would be worrying – notably the well-supported Tafreej who is on an upward trajectory – but Silver Sword remains unexposed at a mile on good ground, and for that reason, I won’t be deserting him today.

  • York Ebor Festival Day Three: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Keeping the winning momentum at this week’s Ebor meeting, with three winners yesterday. Relief Rally and Warm Heart tipped up in both the NAP and E/W bet landed. Sea Theme made it three in the selections column. Day Three is Fab Friday and the Princess of speed returns to her home track. Is the Nunthorpe going to be hers once again?

    Nunthorpe Nap

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    NAP: Nunthorpe Stakes (Group One) – Highfield Princess @ 6/4 (General)

    Instead of being the winning machine, it took Highfield Princess a few go’s to hit top level. And at Goodwood she did, in some style. This is a race she was always going to come to, given her Yorkshire connections, and she won last year’s race on similar conditions with plenty in hand. Bradsell is her chief rival, and has been given a break since Royal Ascot. But, on previous form this is the part of the season where she begins to shine.

    A Fifth Crack

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    E/W Bet: Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Jehangeer @ 14/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Today we could see a big gamble on Jehangeer. Already been backed in from 33/1 on Thursday, someone knows something about this son of Kodiac and brother to Hello Youmzain. His breeding shows he will like the firm ground, and his form from his last Ayr maiden looks positive too. James Doyle has already bagged a big race at the Ebor Festival yesterday, and Kevin Ryan has picked up a prize too. Ryan has also won this race four times, and if he thinks this horse can make the massive step from class six maiden to Group Two winner, then he has every chance.

    Moore The Champ

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    Handicap Best: Sky Bet H’cap (Heritage) – Marhaba The Champ @ 11/1 (888Sport)

    Marhaba The Champs’ last win came at York in May, on firm ground. He’s just a pound higher than that mark today. Granted, he hasn’t always turned up for his races this season. He steps to a mile-and-a-half which looks a positive on evidence of his win at York earlier in the season. Again Kevin Ryan loves a winner at York, no less the Ebor Festival and he should be in top nick for today.

    Bague D’or is intriguing. Only one five-year-old has won in the last ten years, and was recently too. He’s been off the track since Glorious Goodwood 2022, when he finished behind the Ebor winner Trawlerman. It’s his first run under James Ferguson, and handles both the firm ground and the trip. His mark hasn’t changed since last year, but that’s worked out the handicapping of the race. 9/1 (Betfred, BetUK) is a good price for a horse with a big layoff.

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet H’cap (Heritage) – Marhaba The Champ @ 11/1 (888Sport), Bague D’or @ 9/1 (Betfred, BetUK)

    14:25 – Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) – Coltrane @ 11/4 (William Hill), Giavellotto @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    15:00 – Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Kings Gamble @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Jehangeer (E/W) @ 14/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    15:35 – Nunthorpe Stakes (Group One) – Highfield Princess (NAP) @ 6/4 (General)

    16:10 – Fillies’ H’cap (Heritage) – Sirona @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    16:45 – Convivial Maiden Stakes – Castle In The Sand @ 10/1 (888Sport), Sisphyean @ 9/1 (General)

    17:20 – 3-Y-O Mile Handicap (Heritage) – Bajan Bandit @ 15/2 (888Sport, BetVictor), Glenfinnan @ 9/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!