Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • York Ebor Festival Day Two: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Two: Selections and Naps

    We are off to a winning start, sort off, at York. Continuous put us in pole position ahead of Paddington. But Frankie had other ideas, and delivered a ride to finally knock Paddington off his perch. Today we focus on the ladies as the Yorkshire Oaks takes centre stage. Aidan O’Brien holds a strong card, and we’ll be delving into more detail below.

    Ready to Rally

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Relief Rally @ 2/1 (General)

    Relief Rally raised a few eyebrows when she went to the Weatherbys Super Sprint, instead of going down a group race route. But William Haggas has come to the Ebor and has directed Relief Rally to go down the top level route. She makes the step up to six, but she won’t mind it given her breeding. And, even by her win at Newbury when she just waltzed away from the opposition. Haggas didn’t have a winner at his boyhood track, on his birthday, yesterday but will have his best chance with this daughter of Kodiac.

    Heating Up at York

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W Bet: Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) – Warm Heart @ 6/1 (General)

    Savethelastdance may hog the headlines, but Warm Heart has a real chance going into this. She might not be the number one for Aidan O’Brien but she’s won on firm ground, unlike her stablemate. Her run in the Irish Oaks didn’t suit, namely the ground but it was quite slow. Expect plenty of pace up front and for Warm Heart to pick her rivals off one by one, and may even get the better of her stablemate too.

    O’Meara Of Course

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Clipper Logistics H’cap (Heritage) – Orbaan @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    David O’Meara loves a good handicap, whether it’s at Ascot or York. And Orbaan is one of those horses that keeps cropping up in these types of races. He’s been campaigned thoroughly and has found himself dropping to a 5lb lower mark than in last year’s race, where he finished a good fourth. That drop in the handicap, plus ideal ground conditions and drawn next to Spirit Catcher who will want to be prominent, points him as the ideal candidate.

    As I explained in yesterday’s column, Northern trainers love the Ebor meeting. And Ed Bethell looks to have campaigned Point Lynas with this race in mind. His best result this season came over C&D, losing by a head to Croupier. He’s been given a break since disappointing at Royal Ascot which may play into his hands. A career high mark of 96 doesn’t put me off backing him at 12/1 (BetVictor), as he’s finished second twice at York.

    La Trinidad was in my tracker right at the start of the season and has had a very light campaign so far. Only three runs, including a win on firm ground at Doncaster, gives him a mark of 94. But with Jonny Peate claiming three pounds, he’s only on a 2lb higher mark than his previous win of 89. Which came over C&D. He has to overcome an outside draw in stall 20, but drawn next to pace may prove to be a stroke of luck. A nice big price at 28/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Relief Rally (NAP) @ 2/1 (General)

    14:25 – Premier Yearling Stakes – Dapperling @ 12/1 (William Hill)

    15:00 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage) – Orbaan (H’cap Best) @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Point Lynas @ 12/1 (BetVictor), La Trinidad @ 28/1 (General)

    15:35 – Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) – Savethalastdance @ 9/2 (General), Warm Heart (E/W) @ 6/1 (General)

    16:10 – Galtres Stakes (Listed) – Sea Theme @ 4/1 (General)

    16:45 – EBF Stallions Nursery – Aragon Castle @ 5/1 (General), Expert Choice @ 6/1 (General)

    17:20 – Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage) – Unequal Love @ 100/30 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    Yesterday was an enjoyable opening day of the York Ebor Festival for a few reasons.

    Firstly, The Top Three began the meeting in good form thanks to two winners on the Knavesmire, a welcome sight for regular readers.

    Secondly, despite the small field (and my inner fandom for Paddington), the Juddmonte International did not disappoint, giving racing fans a truly classic spectacle to savour.

    Looking ahead to day two, here are my three main plays for today’s feature action.

     

    Group 2 Lowther Stakes (1:50 York) – Relief Rally @ 7/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Beginning with the first race on day two of the York Ebor Festival, although this is not new news, it’s hard to look past William Haggas’ Relief Rally at 7/4.

    The juvenile by Kodiac has been a model of consistency in the famous double green colours of Simon Munir & Isaac Souede this season and steps up to six furlongs for the first time later today.

    That shouldn’t be an issue based on how she has shaped in some of her races, most notably last time out in the Super Sprint where she powered through the good-to-soft conditions and hit the line well under Tom Marquand.

    This victory at Newbury followed a desperately unlucky second in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes where the 58,000 guineas purchase ate up the ground between herself and the winner, Crimson Advocate, however, she was on the wrong side of the head-bobbing finish and settled for a runners-up medal.

    Both Flora Of Bermuda (6/1) and Beautiful Diamond (7/1) were behind her on that occasion, and while they could take a step up and improve past, that would seem unlikely.

    This year’s Lowther Stakes is one to be excited about as it’s a deep race, but Relief Rally is the one who gets the nod at the head of the market.

     

    Clipper Handicap (3:00 York) – Northern Express @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Moving on to the ever-competitive Clipper Handicap at 3:00, Michael Dodds could have a strong hand in the contest with Northern Express at a fair price of 6/1.

    With regular rider Paul Mulrennan booked to do the steering, the Zoffany five-year-old has been bumping heads with improving handicappers all season despite consistently running good races.

    He showed to good effect in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race won by Witch Hunter at 50/1 for Richard Hannon who has since won the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.

    From that race two months ago, the fourth, Spangled Mac, was victorious in a Newbury handicap on Saturday, the sixth, Bopedro, won at Newmarket on Friday, and the ninth, Biggles, bolted up in the Bunbury Cup on his next start.

    Furthermore, it’s not just that race that has seen the form franked either, as horses from his victory at York two starts ago and third at the same course in May have won since.

    Northern Express has been remarkable this season and although he is rated as high at 101, he is officially two pounds well in and will hopefully get his big day in the sun at the York Ebor meeting.

    Listed Galtres Stakes (4:10 York) – One Evening @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The final selection on day two of the York Ebor Festival comes in the concluding contest shown on ITV, the Listed Galtres Stakes, as I’m taking a chance on One Evening to continue her progression for John & Thady Gosden.

    The four-year-old has to give weight away to the younger prospects in the race – Scenic, Sea Time, and Spring Fever notably – but a look through her form suggests she could be able to do this successfully.

    Beginning with her seasonal opener, the Galileo filly attempted to make all in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes, the first time connections deployed these tactics, on her first start at 14 furlongs.

    Unsurprisingly, she didn’t see out the trip and finished a fair fifth, five lengths behind her well-fancied stablemate Mimikyu.

    However, One Evening travelled like the winner when turning for home before fading under Danny Tudhope, so she still showed plenty of promise in a quality field despite losing.

    Fast forward nearly a month and she was pitched into the Listed Castle Fillies’ Stakes where she raced in the rear of the field for the majority of the race before making eye-catching progress up the far rail to finish a valiant second.

    Voodoo Queen, who has good form in the book, won the race with Ching Shih, a subsequent runner-up in Saturday’s Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes to Arrest, one length behind in third.

    To my eye, over 12 furlongs and on good ground, she is still an unexposed type and with Ryan Moore in the plate to steer her home, she has a good chance on the Knavesmire today.

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    All the waiting is finally behind us as the first day of the York Ebor meeting is here.

    Paddington vs Mostahdaf, competitive handicaps, and the return of Gregory will all be on our TV screens throughout the day, an exciting prospect to look forward to.

    Embed from Getty Images

    With last week’s best bet for The Top Three, Arrest in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, proving to be a successful one, here are my three fancies for day one of the York Ebor meeting.

     

    Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (3:00) – Continuous @ 11/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Group 2 Great Voltigeur has only attracted a field of five to the race, yet it is still a contest I want to bet in and it’s Aidan O’Brien’s sole representative, Continuous, that I’m on the side of at 11/4.

    The Heart’s Cry colt has been an interesting prospect for Ballydoyle since his debut victory over seven furlongs in August 2022 as the prominent team has raced him in France twice already; once when victorious in the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon as a two-year-old and the other time when a disappointing eighth in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club this season.

    However, it’s his two runs over in the UK that appeal the most on form, as he began this season with a promising third in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York over 1m2f where he travelled well into the race and maintained that momentum through the line.

    Two starts after that, he moved over to Royal Ascot for the Group 2 Queen’s Vase, a race that saw him fall victim to the monster King Of Steel who would subsequently finish third in the Group 1 King George VI Stakes on his next start.

    Both of those performances were promising in defeat and his form behind good horses certainly stacks up.

    Due to Gregory’s three-pound penalty, Continuous is best at the weights on official ratings and thanks to his solidity in form, he gets my vote of confidence.

     

    Class 2 Fillies’ Handicap (4:45) – Designer @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1.5pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Although it’s not the most common thing to see horses win the same competitive handicap two years in a row, Designer is attempting to do that for John Butler in the fillies’ handicap at 4:45.

    By Pearl Secret, she was a two-length victor in last year’s renewal of the five-furlong sprint handicap when defeating Pink Crystal, a horse who has improved 15 pounds since.

    Following that success, she positively finished last season with a close fifth in the Listed Rous Stakes – a contest that included top sprinters Manaccan, Annaf, and Korker – before a good effort when runner-up to Fast Response, now rated 103, at Doncaster in October.

    This season, the four-year-old was slightly disappointing in her first three efforts of the year, however, she returned to somewhere near her best at Goodwood last time out when fourth in the Coral Handicap won by Lord Riddiford.

    During that race, she had traffic issues until the one-furlong pole, but when she saw open space, she stayed on behind the well-handicapped winner.

    Although some of her best form is on softer ground, her victory in this race last year was officially on good, and she ran a huge race in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2022 on a good-to-firm surface.

    Good horses act on any ground and I’m hoping today is the correct day to catch Designer.

     

    Class 2 Nursery Handicap (5:20) – Ziggy’s Queen @ 11/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Finally, in the concluding race on day one of the York Ebor festival, I’m inclined to take a chance on a Richard Fahey runner, however, it’s not the shorter-priced Blue Prince, as Ziggy’s Queen gets the nod at 11/1.

    By Invincible Spirit out of an Exceed And Excel mare, the handicapper gave her an opening mark of 80 after three promising runs so far this season.

    The first of which came at Nottingham on June 7th where she had a good educational experience under Oisin Orr to finish a staying on third.

    The winner that day, Beautiful Diamond, would go on to finish third in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, while the fourth, fifth, and sixth have all come out and won since.

    Furthermore, she showed the same level of encouragement on her next two starts at Ripon and Beverley to finish second.

    Both the third and fourth from her Ripon race have franked the form while the winner of her Beverley performance was successful on her next start at Thirsk.

    On handicap debut off what seems like a lenient opening mark, hopefully, today’s step up in trip can see Ziggy’s Queen at her best.

  • York Ebor Festival Day One: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s the best Festival of the Summer as the stars head up North to York for the Ebor Festival. Day One has plenty in store, with the highlight the Juddmonte International. A race won by a pantheon of greats down the years, and this year may see another star win the biggest prize on the Knavesmire. There’s plenty of handicaps to get stuck into as well, so let’s take a look at Day One’s selections.

    Everyone’s Favourite

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Juddmonte International Stakes (Group One) – Paddington@ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Paddington is all the rage this year, and I’m still convinced he hasn’t faced a stern test yet. But that’s about to change as he faces some tough rivals who hold quality cards. Mostahdaf has had another break after stepping down in trip to win the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground; Nashwa is back on preferred ground after disappointing in the Nassau; and The Foxes is back at the scene of his Dante win, and off the back of a loss over in America.

    It may look easy, but it’s anything but for Paddington. There may be a worry for the ground as he has never run on it, but the way Paddington is produced in a race suits firm ground runners at York, as they are very hard to catch when out in front (just ask Quickthorn).

    In behind, The Foxes makes most appeal. His Dante win was likeable, he was very tough to fend off a determined White Birch, and it was clear that Epsom didn’t suit him. He just couldn’t make up the ground in the Belmont Derby, but he’s back on home turf and can certainly run a big race. I’d have the two on a reverse forecast.

    Continue To Push

    Embed from Getty Images

    Next Best Bet: Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous @ 9/4 (General)

    It’s hard to have an each-way bet in the other two group races at York because of the small field sizes. But for the lack in size makes up in the quality. I’m surprised Gregory comes to this race after his win over further in the Queen’s Vase, which he carries a penalty for.

    I much rather prefer Continuous, who I thought would be Derby winner, but has steadily improved throughout the season. Whilst King Of Steel showed his class at Ascot, Continuous wasn’t disgraced in second and has had a good break since. He came close in the Dante, so the track will suit.

    Fast Through The Forest

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Sky Bet and Symphony Group (Heritage H’cap) – Jm Jungle @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    If there is one rule when betting on handicaps at York it’s this. Always back Northern trainers. Northern trainers target these handicaps from April. And it works. Only Tony Carroll and Dean Ivory have broken through the Northern barricade in the last ten runnings of the race.

    And Jm Jungle is a horse who has been consistent throughout the season. On what could be a very good week for John Quinn and Jason Hart, Jm Jungle’s form figures this season has read 3324211. He faces another 5lb rise after his last win, which he can handle fine as he did with his last win. Another plus is he’s near the far side rail, but a small negative is he’s not near pace. But Jm Jungle can continue his progression and scalp his biggest win here.

    Another tip at York is back Tim Easterby in sprints. And he has a class outfit in Manila Scouse, who is becoming a typical York sprinter. Despite never winning on firm ground, his breeding suggests he is ground versatile. After his success in the racing league she comes here in fine fettle and can continue an upward progression in a big York sprint handicap at 10/1 (General).

    Small stakes for Shalaa Asker who will relish the firm ground, and could run a big race at 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet and Symphony Group H’cap (Heritage) – Jm Jungle (H’cap Best) @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports), Manila Scouse 10/1 (General), Shalaa Asker @ 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    14:25 – Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Cogitate @ 10/3 (General)

    15:00 – Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous (Next Best) @ 9/4 (General)

    15:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group One) – Paddington (NAP) @ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    16:10 – Stayers’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Themaxwecan @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Charging Thunder @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

    16:45 – IRE Fillies’ H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Radio Goo Goo @ 10/1 (BetUK), Lady Hamana @ 14/1 (General)

    17:20 – Nursery H’cap – Zabriskie Point @ 15/2 (William Hill), Mayo Neighs @ 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rare Visit to Ripon

    Four To Follow: Rare Visit to Ripon

    It wasn’t a great week, but we maintain high spirits as we build our Ebor week pot today. And there are some competitive races on offer across the country. The Hungerford and Geoffrey Freer are two challenging group races, we visit Ripon for the Great St. Wilfrid Handicap and a couple of juveniles takes the eye over in Ireland to make up our Four to Follow this week.

     

    Newbury

    Half and Half Alike

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group Three) – Klondike @ 4/1 (General)

    It’s a little known fact that Klondike and Kemari are half-siblings, out of the same mare Koora. And I’ve settled with the latter for this contest. Only three runs to his name he won on his debut here and then has ran into quality horses on his next two starts.

    The firm ground could be an amicable excuse for his run in the Bahrain Trophy, and has it good-to-soft today. He’s rather unexposed, stepping into open company for the first time and recives a big weight allowance for the in-form William Haggas and Tom Marqaund combination.

     

    Maarbye he’ll Chin’em

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group Two) – Chindit @ 11/4 (General)

    Last year Chindit produced a rare performance over his favourite Newbury straight track. But this year he has shown his quality and, dare I say, Group One ability. Second in the Lockinge was his career-best performance, and his run at Ascot wasn’t that bad when he weakened up the hill. Dropping down in distance is a positive, having won the Greenham over C&D, and he won’t mind the ground either, unlike some in the field.

    Marbaan shouldn’t be discounted in this race. He ran a great race into third, when Kinross and Isaac Shelby went far clear in the Lennox. He’s been racing over six furlongs, and it hasn’t suited him at all, and the step up to seven will be much better. And without the two top class performers over the unique distance, he has room to progress and run a big race at 8/1 (General)

     

    Ripon

    Windy St. Wilfrid

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:15 – William Hill Great St. Wilfrid H’cap – Bay Breeze @ 14/1 (BetUK)

    This is one of the best handicaps in season. It’s at one of my favorutie courses, Ripon, and has the best name (Just who was Wilfrid?). And it’s a Northern race, won by Northern trainers. The last Southerner to win this race was Henry Candy in 2009 with Markab. And Tim Easterby has won this race three times, notably with Staxton in 2020 for favourite backers.

    The ground will be on the softer side of good, so winners usually come down the far side rail. Bay Breeze is drawn in five, and comes off the back of a narrow win over C&D and similar ground. His record at Ripon is phenomenal; six runs, four wins, one place. That record, and the trainer, and his recent run, should put him up there.

    Another Ripon returnee is Twelfth Knight, making his stable debut for Paul Midgley. He’s been moved from Ruth Carr’s stable, and has performed very well for her this season. His record at Ripon is two wins (both on soft ground), two seconds and two thirds. He finished behind Bay Breeze, but only by a half-a-length in a bunch finish. Drawn in stall nine, he’s nearer to the centre, but can still have the advantage if he breaks well. 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor) is a great each-way price.

    One more for the big handicap just takes time. It Just Takes Time, looks like he doesn’t have the right draw, but he’s on the right handicap with Jonny Peate claiming three pounds. He’s ground versatile, but he might in too high a class. That aside, he has things in his favour to give him a squeak at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    The Curragh

    Snell Snell Snell

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:00 – Debutante Stakes (Group Two) – Snellen @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    A Royal Ascot winner, and unbeaten. There’s not much that Snellen has done wrong this season. She managed to hold off Pearls And Rubies in the Chesham and has been given a break by Gavin Cromwell. The one thing that may let her down is the ground, given that she’s won both her races on good-to-firm. But she’s out Illumined who handled the soft very well, and it doesn’t discount Snellen getting it too.

    But I think that Dollerina is the wrong price. She finished second to Ylang Ylang on debut, and the form from that race is one to keep an eye on. Three winners and two places next time out from the twelve runners can’t be looked past. She’s by Terretories, who handled soft ground and should be backed in from 8/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Newbury Tips – Arrest to Deal knockout blow – The Top Four

    Newbury Tips – Arrest to Deal knockout blow – The Top Four

    Although this weekend’s action is a pleasurable sight, competition is high.

    York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    Whether it’s through the exciting Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, the 20-runner Great St Wilfrid Handicap, or the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet over in Deauville, there is something for everyone over the next few days.

    Embed from Getty Images

    With that in mind, below are a few Newbury tips to consider for today, as well as one Ripon selection.

     

    1:50 Newbury – Arrest @ 6/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    I’m not the first, I won’t be the last, and I’m certainly not the most prominent person to tell you this, but with the rain that has hit Newbury over the last 24 hours, Arrest looks a good bet in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

    As I admitted on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, following his dominant Group 3 Chester Vase victory in May, I backed this Frankel colt for the Arc in October at 25/1.

    Although that didn’t eloquently display my ability to be a good judge, the performance shown around the tight track warranted a high level of respect as he swept aside Adelaide River, a subsequent Irish Oaks and Grand Prix de Paris runner-up.

    Two runs since on good-to-firm ground in the Group 1 Epsom Derby and Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, the latter behind King Of Steel, haven’t seen him to the greatest effect, however, John & Thady Gosden have freshened him up since and, most importantly, the ground will be on the softer side of good.

    This step-up in trip shouldn’t cause too many issues, and with the weight-for-age allowance in full force, Arrest is my horse to open up the Newbury tips.

     

    2:25 Newbury – Whenthedealinsdone @ 15/2 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the very next race, Whenthedealinisdone looks like a standout contender at 8/1 in the Highclere Castle Gin Handicap.

    The Roger Teal-trained five-year-old is on his lowest ever mark of 87 having only been rated this leniently back during his two-year-old season in October 2020.

    The handicapper has obviously taken a strong view on his recent runs this season as he has dropped 11 pounds in six starts for a five-year-old who still contains his original ability.

    This was displayed in his second-placed effort at Windsor when behind King Of Bavaria and ahead of the future Epsom Dash winner, Navello.

    The Dark Angel gelding has a good record towards the middle parts of the season after a few runs under his belt and now he is three pounds below his last winning mark – and 11 pounds below his rating when third to Fast Response at Doncaster – today could be the day to catch him.

     

    3:00 Newbury – Hodler @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Finally, the Heart Bingo Summer Sizzler Handicap is under the microscope and as the biggest price of the three Newbury tips, Jim Boyle’s Hodler at 12/1 looks like an interesting bet.

    Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the 25/1 early price has dissipated to a skinnier 12/1, however, there’s plenty of reason to suggest why.

    Putting his disappointing effort on good-to-firm ground on Epsom Oaks day to one side, the Sea The Moon four-year-old defeated Charlie Fellows’ Gorak by two lengths on soft ground at Chester when officially rated two pounds higher than the runner-up.

    Following that run, Gorak won a Haydock handicap 17 days later before he finished just two lengths behind Jumby in the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, a performance that saw the handicapper raise him 19 pounds to a mark of 105, 23 pounds higher than his Chester second.

    Furthermore, Paws For Thought crossed the line in third during that previously mentioned Chester race, a horse who went on to win three on the bounce later this season, while the fourth, Broken Spear, was a winner Leicester on his next start and the fifth, Another Batt, has since completed a quickfire double.

    On that Chester race alone, Hodler looks well-handicapped off 89 even before you look at his final start of last season where he finished second to Astral Beau, a horse that has improved 24 pounds since.

    Out of stall four on Saturday, there should be pace around him thanks to Isla Kai in five and Top Secret in three, and I hope that the five-pound claim of jockey Luke Catton can help Hodler make it two wins from three races.

     

    Bonus Fancy: 2:40 Ripon – Holbache @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Finally, away from Newbury, today’s card at Ripon is certainly one to be excited by with the Great St Wilfrid looking as competitive as ever, but in the race directly before, Holbache is a horse I can’t let go off unbacked at 9/1.

    The five-year-old by Coach House has been a loyal servant for the Worcestershire-based team during his three years on the track, a run that has included six wins from 27 outings.

    Two of those victories have occurred in his last five races and in both of those successes on the all-weather last year, he delivered a very impressive front-running performance.

    After a winter break, he returned to the track last month with a promising seasonal opener at York under today’s jockey Connor Beasley, a run that should have him spot-on for today.

    Thanks to the handicapper dropping him two pounds for the run last time out, he can certainly make a mark of 71 work, so the hopes are high for a good run today.

  • York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    The Ebor meeting at York Racecourse is the next big summer festival for Flat racing fans to be excited for.

    With a fair track for competition, tight-nit races, and highly-anticipated clashes, the four-day event on the Knavesmire next week is one not to miss.

    With that in mind, I already have an ante-post fancy for the event as well as one horse who is running at Ripon this weekend in the valuable Great St Wilfid Handicap.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    York Beq-ons for Shadwell star

    Embed from Getty Images

    Next Friday’s Group 2 City Of York Stakes has the quality of a proper top-class contest, and rightly so with York racecourse offering up £500,000 in prize money.

    Plenty in here have strong claims, but the 10/1 available with William Hill for MUTASAABEQ looks like a good each-way price from an ante-post perspective.

    Charlie Hills’ five-year-old has experienced a mixed season so far this year as he burst back onto the scene with a dominating three-length victory in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Newmarket before an average performance in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes when drawn on the wrong side of the track just 15 days later.

    Following a below-par outing in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, when he failed to deploy his usual front-running tactics, connections have freshened him up for the Knavesmire next week whilst also stepping him down in trip to seven furlongs.

    As a strong traveller, which he clearly is, the one-furlong drop in distance should be no problem for the Invincible Spirit entire.

    On his day, he is very close to a Group 1 animal when conditions are right, and with this freshen-up set to have him 100%, 10/1 looks to be a nice price.

     

    Grey shouldn’t Mis Wilfrid opportunity

    Embed from Getty Images

    Back to the more immediate future and looking at Saturday’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, I’m looking to take a chance on ARAMIS GREY at 20/1 with William Hill.

    Although the six-year-old is entered for the Listed Flying Fillies’ Stakes on Sunday at Pontefract, hopefully, Rae Guest and connections swerve that race and come here instead.

    Why? Well, officially rated 95, a career-high mark, the Gutaifan mare was third at Haydock two starts ago in the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes when behind Get Ahead, a horse who would go on to place in the Group 2 Prix du Gros-Chene next time out.

    Before that, she finished just a length behind the 103-rated Queen Aminatu over seven furlongs on the all-weather and beat Vadream, a Listed and Group 3 winner since, at Lingfield two months before then.

    Furthermore, Aramis Grey received an entry to the Ayr Gold Cup earlier this week, so if they fancy their chances in the big race – rather than the Silver or Bronze Cup – she should be running well this weekend whether she turns up.

    Hopefully, based on her form in the book, the experienced mare can make use of her well-handicapped status in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap.

  • Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    After the Goodwood rain comes the Curragh sun. Regular racing is back for a couple of weeks, and it’s that time of the season where the attention begins to turn to the youngsters, as the first 2-Y-O Group One, the Phoenix Stakes, takes place over in Ireland. There’s also juvenile action from Newmarket, and interesting renewal of the Rose of Lancaster in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Shar To Dash

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:25 – Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Shartash @ 9/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood Surprisingly this season, the British have dominated group sprint races at the Curragh.

    Commanche Falls and Art Power are the two who have lit up Ireland’s premier flat course. But Shartash isn’t without hope. The allowance is crucial for him and allows her to become one of the highest rated horses in the race, and the better ground may suit him better.

    He may be drawn in the centre of the track, but he’s surrounded by plenty of pace, which should give him a nice gallop to latch on to.

     

    Unanswered Questions

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:40 – Phoenix Stakes (Group One) – Unquestionable @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Both Bucanero Fuente and Unquestionable deserved to have another go at each other again. It was a fantastic race with only a head separating them in the Railway Stakes. Both sons of Wootton Bassett look inseparable, but I think Unquestionable can reverse the result from last time out.

    Firstly, Unquestionable is drawn nearer to the stand-side rail, and it’s quite hard from a horse in stall one to make the journey over to grab it. There’s a good pace angle from Givemethebeatboys on Unquestionable’s outside, and if he gets over to the rail there’s a pacemaker for Bucanero Fuente to latch on to.

    Finally, the Phoenix Stakes dictate that Aidan O’Brien is never far away from the winner’s enclosure, with 17 wins in the race, including with the recently retired Little Big Bear last year.

     

    Newmarket

    Scorch The Turf

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Carolina Reaper @ 4/1 (General)

    Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the last ten years. In fact his record since 2014 is 1211231, with no runners in ‘16 & ’17. That’s a strike rate of 71% in the race for nine years. Carolina Reaper is this year’s offering from the Johnston team and looks really attractive.

    She finally broke her maiden in style last time out over C&D, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. Form-wise, the second came and won next time out at Lingfield and the third goes in the second race on the same card today.

    The rail helped her on her maiden win, but today she is drawn towards the centre of the track. She does have pace to latch on to in the stall to her outside, and in form jockey with Jack Mitchell can see her over the line.

     

    Haydock

    Shady Customer

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Midnight Mile @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Fillies haven’t got a great record in this race. In fact, a filly hasn’t won this race since Braiswick in 1989, 34 years ago. Surely this year will buck the trend when the exciting Midnight Mile is introduced.

    She won stylishly at York last time out, and the ground will be perfect for her this time around. A hefty allowance will put her up as one of the highest rated, and Oisin Orr is one of the jockeys to keep an eye on with a 22% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    We’ve had some bad luck in the past couple of days. But now we know; the ground will be soft on Friday, and yesterday’s racing showed where the better ground is. Blue Rose Cen couldn’t find a gap as all the jockeys poured to the far side rail to deny her a British Group One. But that was yesterday, and today we are back, with four more at Goodwood.

     

    SITTIN’ ON THE DOCK

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Thoroughbred Stakes (Group Three) – Docklands @ 9/2 (General)

    Docklands has been on an upwards trajectory this season. Winning the Brittania at Royal Ascot meant he climbed up the weights again and now finds himself in group company. However, it was over soft ground where he made his biggest impact, winning by six-and-a-half lengths at Ascot in May.

    And he won’t mind the sharpness of the Goodwood track, having conquered Kempton and lost by a neck at Haydock as a two-year-old. With Nostrum odds-on, and he has never raced on ground softer than good, he makes perfect sense.

    Keep an eye on Jessie Harrington’s Bold Discovery in stall four, as he has performed well at similar levels on soft/heavy ground over in Ireland, and 14/1 (General) looks too big of a price.

     

    WE’VE GONE AWAAL

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Golden Mile H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Simon & Ed Crisford have had a very quiet season, but they’ve a well-handicapped runner here. Awaal has a great record on soft/heavy ground, running in second in the Lincoln in March. He then went on to finish third in his next two British races, and now has a useful claimer on board in Harry Davies. Cheeckpieces are on him for the first time, which will sharpen him up and give him a solid chance, if he can overcome stall 12 and get to the far side in the straight.

    David O’Meara has a great record in the Golden Mile, winning two out of the last three. And he is determined to keep that record going with six runners in the race. The one I’m siding with is Bopedro. He’s been racing over seven furlongs in the first half of the season, but steps up to a mile when the ground has got softer. His mark of 100 might not be a winning one, but conditions are suitable for him to be up there at the finish, and a solid each-way chance at 20/1 (Boylesports).

    There’s also some chance for Johan, making his seasonal reappearance. It seems the conditions haven’t been ideal for him, and now William Haggas has felt the time is right. Whilst Lattam takes the limelight, Johan could run similar to his 2022 Lincoln win which came off a pound lower than his mark today. 28/1 (William Hill) is a steal of a price.

     

    THE GOODWOOD SPRINT QUEEN

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group Two) – Highfield Princess @ 10/11 (General)

    Highfield Princess is a top quality horse. But she hasn’t been showing it on bare form. But she was unlucky up at York, and both runs at Ascot. The drop down in class will help, and the soft ground won’t be a problem to her. She’s drawn near the pace in stall three, with Ponntos in stall five. With Highfield Princess drawn near towards where the better ground may be, she has fantastic chance to get her first win of the season.

    Keep an eye out for Nymphadora, who is improving all the time, and showed her class at Sandown. Soft ground won’t be a problem, and can make a good step up in class and keep improving. 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) is a cracking price.

     

    SCOTCH IN SUSSEX

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:10 – L’Ormarins King’s Plate Glorious Stakes (Group Three) – Hamish @ 4/5 (General)

    Hamish avoided the clash of the generations last week, and has opted to come here. Which gives him a much better chance, and his ideal conditions. Hopefully it won’t be long before we see him step up to Group Two’s and One’s later this season.

    Finishing in behind him, Epictetus has got first time cheeckpieces on, and should relish this lower grade, and softer conditions are good to him, even though he ran a stellar race at York on good-to-firm.

    And Epic Poet was a consistent runner in France, before moving to Freddie and Martyn Meade’s. His run at Newbury was a bit of blow out, but could bounce back over a further trip on soft ground and a sharper test at Goodwood.

    Those three could make a valuable tricast.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

    Embed from Getty Images

    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!