Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • 14/1 Irish Oaks Weekend Pick – Ante-post Analysis

    I think it’s fair to say that we have two horses to really look forward to following the Newmarket July Festival.

    With City Of Troy and Shaquille, Flat racing eagerly awaits both of their next moves because right now, there are two promising stars in two different divisions at two different ages. What a brilliant sight.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Therefore, to walk out of last week with this marks a good time for horse racing, irrespective of backing winners or losers.

    Now, with that covered, the Irish Oaks takes centre stage this weekend from the Curragh, but away from there, it is two horses running in the UK that have grabbed my attention for this week’s ante-post analysis.

     

    Return of Lanfranco

    Embed from Getty Images

    Frankie Dettori is set to leave the sidelines this weekend as horse racing’s most famous jockey is back in the saddle at Newbury Racecourse, and at 4/1 with William Hill, LEZOO is an interesting betting angle into the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at 3:00.

    Firstly, she is the second-highest rated horse in the race with just Garrus one pound ahead of her, however, she receives 11 pounds from Charlie Hills’ runner and Tiber Flow, eight pounds from Curragh winner Commanche Falls, and six pounds from fellow three-year-old Cold Case.

    Embed from Getty Images

    That puts her clear at the weights by a good margin, partly due to being a three-year-old filly as well as being without the hindrance of a penalty in the race, something that is different for Cold Case as he shoulders a three-pound penalty for winning a Group 3 in May.

    Furthermore, a look back at her two-year-old form, specifically that Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes where she beat Mawj, Meditate, and Swingalong, reads extremely well in this Group 3 setting who are yet to break it onto the Group 1 stage.

    Hopefully, this Zoustar filly can give the returning Dettori a win this weekend in what is her easiest test of the last 12 months.

     

    Long live summer jumping

    Embed from Getty Images

    This weekend marks one of the feature events of the summer jump racing calendar, Market Rasen’s Summer Plate Day.

    Despite the competitiveness of the feature event, it is the race directly before that has piqued my interest, however, as LUTTRELL LAD at 16/1 with BetVictor is an interesting runner in the two-mile handicap hurdle.

    Trained by Tom Lacey and ridden by stable jockey Stan Sheppard, the seven-year-old’s first run of this year occurred at Kelso in March before his defeat by only seven lengths in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival off a mark of 133.

    Fast-forward to this weekend and following three runs since jump racing’s Olympics, his rating is officially 123, a full 10 pounds below his mark in March.

    That is a big swing in the weights for a horse who was finishing close to the likes of Pied Piper, Filey Bay, Sharjah, Ballyadam, and Highway One O Two.

    Furthermore, this weekend’s conditions could suit him better than others in the field as the ground could be riding on the softer side of good, something he has previous form with.

    At 16/1, I’d be willing to take a chance that he can still run to his County Hurdle ability off a very lenient mark.

  • Five To Follow: Super Saturday

     

    It’s one of the busiest, craziest and most hectic days of the racing calendar. It’s Super Saturday. Newmarket, York, Ascot, even Chester, have big races on offer.

    Including the July Cup, Bunbury Cup and the John Smith’s Cup, it’s a punters’ paradise. Let’s take you through the three big meetings, and find the Best Bets.

     

    Newmarket

    Truth Be Told

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – Great Truth @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    This is one of the top two-year-old races of the season, and Godolphin have a great record in recent years. Native Trail and Master Of The Seas came from this race, and we all know what Native Trail did as a three-year-old. He has staying pedigree on both sides of his family, which won’t be a problem staying seven furlongs at two.

    On his debut, he was a little green at Leicester, but he won with plenty in hand, and you can’t discount a 5-and-a-half-length win. On past trends, and breeding, Great Truth has sold me.

     

    Two Blessed

    Embed from Getty Images

    16:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Bless Him @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Bless Him is now a nine-year-old, and has bucked the trends for this race as winners usually are between four and six. But he can still hack it at the top level, with an encouraging fifth in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. And he is only two pounds higher than his winning mark in last year’s race.

    It’s worth noting that Jamie Spencer is not riding on Saturday, so Callum Shepherd gets the leg up.

    Star Of Orion has been quite a consistent horse this season, with two seconds at the start of the season. But Ralph Beckett seems to have laid him out for this race, electing not to go to Royal Ascot, and keeps his handicap mark at 92. Which is six pounds lower than last season’s mark.

    He’s versatile on all grounds, and is good value each-way player at 12/1 (General)

     

    Little Too Big

    Embed from Getty Images

    16:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 4/1 (General)

    When the odds came out for the race, I was shocked that Little Big Bear was at 4/1.

    He got beat at Ascot, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad horse. He’s a super sprinter! In fact he does have a good omen on his side, most recent winners have come from the Commonwealth Cup, but they didn’t win it.

    Only Muhuraar has done the double, which doesn’t put Shaquille in a good spot. Plus the allowance that Little Big Bear is getting, puts him as the best rated horse in the race. For me, I wouldn’t be surprised if punters take advantage of this, and he’s backed down.

     

    York

    Saturday Spirit

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Spirit Dancer @ 9/1 (General)

    This year’s edition of the John Smith’s Cup is probably one of the best.

    Each horse has strong claims, but I’ve gone for a regular at York. Spirit Dancer has been in the top four for the past five races, and his rating has only gone up five pounds in that period. He loves the firm ground, although the weather may set in at the weekend, as heavy showers are forecast. But he is versatile, as he can run well on good-to-soft ground.

    Northern trainers always do well at York, particularly Richard Fahey, and he will have had this race in mind since he came fourth in last year’s renewal.

    I also like the chances of Millebosc, who makes his reappearance on the track after 227 days. Horses who have been off the track have won the past three renewals of this race, and Haggas will have set out this horse for the race.

    He’s only had one run in the UK, a fifth on the Lingfield all-weather. His record shows that his only win came on debut, but he did come third in a Prix du Jockey Club, behind St. Mark’s Basilica, so his Group  form could come through. 12/1 (General) is a respectable price.

     

    Ascot

    The Mighty Mighty

    Embed from Getty Images

    14:20 – Summer Mile (Group Two) – Mighty Ulysees @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    Another horse who has been laid off the track is Mighty Ulysees. He came ever so close in last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes, but didn’t kick on in his final two starts. Now he’s back, and he is rated as one of the best in the field, which must be taken note. He’s drawn wide, which shouldn’t be a problem for Robert Havlin. He can land another big Saturday winner for the Gosdens, who are operating at a 29% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day Two

     

    A disappointing Day One for Four To Follow, but we aim to make it up in the next two days, as TWO Group Ones’ rattle towards us. Here are my tips for Day Two at the July Festival.

     

    Newmarket

    Seen It, Did It

    Embed from Getty Images

    13:50 – bet365 Heritage Handicap – Seendid @ 15/2 (BetVictor, 10Bet)

    William Haggas and Tom Marquand are having a, somewhat, quiet season. But I feel they’ve laid this horse out perfectly for its big test. Seendid is by Dubawi and is out of a middle-distance mare, so has plenty of stamina. He also has crucial course and distance experience, after breaking his maiden on the July course at the back-end of June. He made all that day, but given that there are a few more horses to contest with, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marquand drops him in behind the leader and lead the rest home in the straight. He’s good value too at the top of the market.

    And don’t knock off Knockbrex for Charlie Johnston. His father Mark has an incredible record in the race, winning the race four times on the spin between 2013and 2016. He then won it in 2020 with Zabeel Champion. I’m sure Charlie will have heeded some advice from his father, and Knockbrex will not be without hope. Winning from the front can be done on the July course, ask Seendid. If he learns to settle, he’ll be a good each-way shout, especially with some past form behind Royal Ascot winner Gregory, at 10/1 (General)

     

    Dream of a Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Live Your Dream @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Live Your Dream has almost been a revelation since returning to the track. Placed twice, including a second at the Royal meeting, you feel he’ll be too much class for the field in this race. On pure ratings, he’s the only horse rated at 104 which is top weight. But class horses can defy the top weight, and he has been improving all the time. Today should be his day to shine.

    One at a better price is Ravens Ark. He’s a quite a consistent stayer, with two seconds to his name already this season. He seems to be versatile on all grounds, and a mark of 81 is only a pound higher than his previous winning one. It’s a bit of a disappointing ‘heritage handicap’, but Ravens Ark represents some value at 11/1 (General)

     

    Remarkable July

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Remarquee @ 4/1 (General)

    I’ve always viewed this race as a bit of a faux pas Group One. It hasn’t been won by the greats in recent times, and I can’t imagine we’ll see a great come out of this race either. But Remarquee does stand out to me. She was only a length behind Tahiyra at Ascot, which is a big result considering how the race panned out. She gets a nine pound allowance, which will be massively beneficial to her. Via Sistina is a good horse, but the ground will come into question. And it’ll be interesting to see Nashwa stepping down in trip for her reappearance, and I think the Gosdens will be looking to the Nassau, and this is just a prep race. That makes Remarquee the stand out for me.

     

    York

    Swinging In Summer

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:40 – Summer Stakes (Group Three) – Swingalong @ 15/8 (General)

    Swingalong is back at the scene of her last win, in the Lowther. York over six furlongs was a great match for Swingalong, and Karl Burke will know that. She is a high-class filly, and could easily turn into a top rated sprinter, given she also finished third in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot. And with 14 winners so far in July for Burke, this race could not come at a better time for an in-form stable. I’m surprised she’s odds against, frankly.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day One

     

    After a brief break, Four To Follow is back, with three days of fantastic racing to be had at Newmarket’s beautiful July course.

    Day One sees the favourites holding all the aces.

     

    Answer a Prayer

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    13:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Saint George @ 11/4 (Unibet)

    Over at the ‘The Top Three’, Ash has stuck with the favourite.

    However, this is the first race that really will test the form. And with Gregory been given an entry in the Goodwood Cup, it seems that the top six may become group horses out of it. It looks positive.

    We know that he gets his staying power out of his dam’s side, and Roaring Lion has had a 13% strike rate of progeny winners this season.

    Tower Of London, faces a steep rise in rating, whilst we know that Saint George can perform at this level, and that’s why he’s my pick.

     

    Summer Breeze

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    14:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Purosangue @ 9/4 (Unibet)

    I first came across this Andrew Balding colt when having a peruse one evening, and found out that I knew this horses mother.

    Avon Breeze ran for the Whitaker stable, who my family still own horses with, and was a fantastic edition to the stable.

    She wasn’t a filly that performed at the top level, but she did win a class two handicap at Ripon in 2016. Her daughter Liberty Breeze also runs for the Whitaker’s, and is having a good season so far.

    I watched Purosangue’s debut and thought that he was a smart horse, and won with plenty in hand. This horse seems to be heading in the right direction, and can prove his class for the Balding team.

     

    Height Of July

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    15:00 – bet365 Heritage H’cap – Washington Heights @ 5/1 (General)

    Sooner or later, this horse has to win a race. He’s got closer to the winning line with each run, being denied by a head on his last run at York.

    He finished second to the now-Group One winner Shaquille at the start of the season, and downed twice by Quinault.

    Firm ground seems to be his preference, which puts me in a difficult position. We won’t’ know how the ground is performing until the first race, because the Newmarket grounds-team are irrigating tonight.

    The ground is officially good to firm at time of writing, but whether it’ll stay that way is an unknown.

    But a big plus for this horse is the booking of Ryan Moore, who has to be the best jockey in the world. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a jockey with a 41% strike rate.

    Eminency is the each-way appeal in the race for me.

    She finished fourth in the same York sprint handicap as Washington Heights, and has only been raised a pound. Once again, ground will be a concern if it’s not firmer ground, but as explained in the first selection, we’re playing the waiting game.

    Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which I always see as a positive, and John Fahy and Clive Cox are both just starting to turn the formbook heading into July. Nice bet at 10/1 (General)

     

    One for the Acca

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    15:40 – Princess of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Adayar @ 1/2 (Boylesports, 10Bet)

    It’s a simple equation really. One is rated nine pounds better than the next best, dropping a grade below, and only has four runners to contend with.

    Israr is the clear threat, but Israr hasn’t performed at Group Two level, let alone win. In fact he hasn’t won a class one race yet, which puts Adayar in the driving seat.

    Adayar is definitely one for the multiples, and a banker on day one of the July meeting.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    Four To Follow: Northumberland Plate & Irish Derby

    We’re all on the come-down from Royal Ascot this week, but there is still top-class action to be had. There’s big handicap action up at Newcastle, with the Northumberland Plate the feature on Saturday, and two Group One’s over at The Curragh this weekend. Here are four Best Bets over the weekend.

    KEEP IT BRIEF

    Embed from Getty Images

    12:55 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Brad The Brief @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    Brad The Brief is making his seasonal reappearance for Hugo Palmer, a little later than predicted. The ground on the all-weather at Newcastle is Standard to slow, which does give an advantage to those horses that prefer it a bit softer on turf. Secondly, his record fresh isn’t bad, winning twice out of five, those two coming in similar contests. He hasn’t run on the UK all-weather since a two-year-old at Wolverhampton. Price represents good value, against a horse who has an excellent record on the All-weather, in Tiber Flow.

    PLATE IT UP

    Embed from Getty Images

    14:05 – NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE (Heritage H’cap) – ADJUVANT @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    The Northumberland Plate is one of those races where you can, more often than not, find the winner. In the past 10 runnings of the race, the biggest priced winners were 33/1 and 16/1. If you head towards the market, you should land on the winner. Which is why I’ve gone with Adjuvant. He’s been kept fresh since winning a class three handicap at Newmarket, and was raised four pounds for that win. He was a regular feature in big three-year-old handicaps last year, being placed in the Melrose his best result. Talented Billy Loughnane gets the leg up, and rode a double at Bath this week, and jockey form like that can’t be ignored. And last time he was at Newcastle, he rode a treble. Step up in trip won’t be a problem, and all-weather should suit, given he’s making his debut on the surface.

    Staying at the top of the shop, Omniscient for the legend that is Sir Mark Prescott can’t be ignored. Makes his reappearance, off the back of a win at the end of last season, on the all-weather. He may have had a steep rise in the handicap, but Prescott must feel that it is a fair mark for him. He’s at a 33%, which shows evidence of his shrewdness and knowledge, and has a good chance to add the Pitman’s Derby to an illustrious CV. Omniscient with each-way claims at 10/1 (General)

    AN O’BRIEN FAIRYTALE

    Embed from Getty Images

    15:25 – Pretty Polly Stakes (Group One) – Never Ending Story @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    Looking at this race on paper, it doesn’t scream Group One. We’ve had a few races like this, this season, and the quality doesn’t fill me with much joy. Which is why I’m taking advantage of the massive allowances that two of these fillies get. Never Ending Story is one of these, and has raced in two Group One’s this season. Both were in France, and both times she lost to Blue Rose Cen. In the Prix de Diane, she ran a second and was more suited to the trip. She may be playing second-fiddle, but I think everyone’s on the wrong O’Brien horse.

    Sunday

    STATE THE OBVIOUS

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:40 – IRISH DERBY (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal E/W @ 40/1 (BetVictor)

    Auguste Rodin will win it. The market says so, and everyone else does. He performed to his absolute best at Epsom, and should be as on song as he was at Epsom three weeks ago. Sprewell and White Birch did run on well in behind, but I feel that Sprewell isn’t group one quality, and White Birch is second-best. But Proud And Regal at 40/1 is an each-way shout that I can’t be having. It was the wrong decision to make him step down in trip for the Irish Guineas, but hat form stood up at Royal Ascot which benefits him. He was third behind Sprewell on heavy ground over 10 furlongs, and you felt that a step up in trip would be better than stepping down. The ground will be to his liking, and he’s a Group One winner (in France), which everyone seems to have forgotten. He’s also bred for a Derby, by Galileo, and related to a few middle-distance horses.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish Derby Weekend Best Bets – The Top Three

    Irish Derby Weekend Best Bets – The Top Three

    It’s Irish Derby Weekend and our The Top Three column had a good time of things in the English equivalent a few weeks ago.

    Although Waipiro didn’t handle the test of the Derby at Epsom, victory for Prosperous Voyage in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and a placed effort for Silver Sword in the Lester Piggott Handicap made it a profitable day.

    Embed from Getty Images

    After a tough Royal Ascot, the P&L is still positive at +2.85 points and with a good weekend of racing ahead, here are my three best fancies.

     

    12:20 Newcastle – BATAL DUBAI @ 13/2 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Racing starts early at 12:20 this week on ITV Racing and it’s Harry and Roger Charlton’s BATAL DUBAI that caught my attention in the opener.

    The Profitable three-year-old colt has only raced five times so far, winning three of them, and has former champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle for the first time.

    Although disappointing on his last two runs, one took place on heavy ground at Newbury and the over saw him miss the break at Windsor.

    Furthermore, the £30,000 handicap contest gives three-year-olds a six-pound allowance and both he and Animate will benefit from it.

    With race fitness on his side and, in my books, still relatively unexposed at six furlongs on quick ground, the 13/2 with BoyleSports is attractive for Batal Dubai.

     

    12:55 Newcastle – MOUNT ATHOS @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    At an ante-post stage, El Caballo at 4/1 was my main interest in the Chipchase Stakes, as discussed on the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast.

    However, as mentioned in my Ante-post Analysis article on Wednesday, the best value in the race was MOUNT ETHOS at 8/1.

    Fast-forward two days and that has turned into a truthful statement as James Tate’s four-year-old is a best-priced 9/2 with William Hill for this weekend.

    My explanation behind his chance this weekend is included in the Ante-post Analysis article, which you can read to see why I like him as a 50/1 shot for the July Cup.

    Now that declarations are in for the Chipchase Stakes, I see that he could be the likely pace angle in the contest.

    Of the dead-eight runners, the Dark Angel colt won both of his starts at Kempton when racing from the front and only Brad The Brief and Prince Of Pillo look like horses who could lead, but most of their success has come from sitting in-behind leaders.

    Therefore, if Mount Athos gets an easy lead from the front, he could be hard to peg back on his return to six furlongs under Neil Callan.

     

    3:25 Curragh – ABOVE THE CURVE @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 3pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    My final fancy comes in the first Group 1 of the weekend as I’ve turned to ABOVE THE CURVE in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh.

    Although she is the current favourite at 5/2, if she had opened up at 7/4, I wouldn’t have looked twice as she is the proven best horse in the race

    Although she is the only Group 1 winner in the race, won a Group 2 with ease last time out, and will be partnered by the best jockey in the world, Ryan Moore, she seems underestimated in the market.

    Admittedly, Via Sistina was very impressive at Newmarket last time out, however, I would like to see her do it again before trusting the performance especially due to the fact she will be racing on a much quicker surface.

    She does have good ground form, but it hasn’t been at this level and by Fastnet Rock, I’d have a concern on that side of things.

    Then at 5/1 is Never Ending Story, a horse Moore would have had the option to ride, but he is jumping on Joseph O’Brien’s contender rather than siding with the younger Dubawi filly for Joseph’s dad, Aidan.

    And although Above The Curve has performed best on soft ground, her pedigree of American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare suggests the better surface shouldn’t be an issue and at 5/2, she could be the class act of the race.

  • Irish Derby Weekend Picks – Ante-post Analysis

    Irish Derby Weekend Picks – Ante-post Analysis

     

    Well, Royal Ascot 2023 is over.

    Many, including this series, have come out the other side battered and bruised after some of the big-priced results and although some of you following from Twitter may have picked up Khaadem or Age Of Kings, these BestOfBets articles drew close to a blank.

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    Alas, this happens and it’s time to march on and look forward to Irish Derby Weekend.

    Although the feature race itself looks a point-and-shoot for Auguste Rodin, there are a few interesting ante-post angles on this side of the Irish Sea.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    Everyone loves a Chip

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes (12:55 Newcastle) drew my attention initially and rather unusually, I want to talk about two horses in the same race.

    The first of which is EL CABALLO at 4/1 with BetVictor for Karl Burke and Clifford Lee.

    Heading into his run last time out in the John Of Gaunt Stakes, I wasn’t sure how much he liked good ground, however, his run through the race showed to me that he can be versatile on most surfaces.

    And although my fancy, Jumby, won the race, if he wasn’t sandwiched between Gorak and The Astrologist, he would have been much closer to the action and could have won the race.

     

    Coming into this a fresher horse than some of the Royal Ascot runners (Annaf, the ante-post favourite, and Prince Of Pillo), back to six furlongs should suit well with his good turn of foot and I like him for this race.

     

    A July Cup horse?

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    However, at double the price, I’ve also locked eyes on MOUNT ATHOS at 8/1 with BetVictor for James Tate and the in-form Neil Callan.

    He is a fit and fresh horse after two runs this season, most recently a second to Spycatcher on soft ground.

    By Dark Angel and out of an Iffraaj mare, he wouldn’t have bounced off the slower conditions and a return to an all-weather surface, something he is two from two on, will definitely benefit his chances.

    His final run of last season and first run of this season, both on an official going of standard to slow, showed up well on the clock to make all from the front, so much so that connections handed him a July Cup entry for next month.

     

    At 8/1 this weekend and a whopping 50/1 for the six-furlong Group 1 contest at Newmarket, both interest me for a horse who looks to have plenty of gears and with him still being relatively unexposed, I can’t drag myself away from an each-way bet on this four-year-old.

     

    Quick turnaround for ZOFFEE

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    Of the 48 still entered for the Northumberland Plate (2:05 Newcastle), 15 ran 16 or fewer days ago, a stat that includes my fancy, ZOFFEE at 7/1 with BetVictor.

    The race in question that Hugo Palmer’s seven-year-old ran in was the Ascot Stakes last Tuesday, a contest he finished a staying-on sixth in under Ben Curtis who is jocked up for the weekend.

     

    Last year’s Northumberland Vase winner sat in the rear of the field for the majority of his run last time out before coming eight-wide around the bend and running through the line.

    Although my cliff horse, Calling The Wind, finished four places ahead of him in that Ascot Stakes, Richard Hughes’ seven-year-old has no prior form in backing up from a quick turnaround, something Zoffee has done before.

    I feel that if he positioned himself more prominently at Royal Ascot, he might have placed, however, he didn’t and he now comes into Saturday in good form with something to prove.

    7/1 is short, but to me, his claims are obvious for a course and distance winner.

     

    Back with a favourite

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    If I like El Caballo over at Newcastle, there’s no way I can leave JUMBY alone at 4/1 with BoyleSports.

    As we know, Eve Johnson Houghton’s five-year-old beat El Caballo last time out at Haydock when a few things went wrong for him in running.

    Although he has a three-pound penalty, Charlie Bishop said he is deadly at this level over seven furlongs and with Aldaary a potential non-runner if it remains this quick, the 4/1 about Jumby looks a good price.

     

    For me, Aldaary hasn’t proven himself on quick ground, Pogo disappointed on his last four runs, culminating in a bad run at Ascot in the Queen Anne, and the rest need to step up to Jumby’s level.

    Although he has only had 21 days off the track, that break actually makes him one of the fresher horses in the field and I hope he can make it a quick double in the 1:50 at Newmarket.

  • Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Day Four was an up and down day at Royal Ascot. Tahiyra, tipped up by me three times, won in a messy race. And King of Steel proved his run in the Derby wasn’t a fluke. Today is the final day of what has been an incredible meeting, let’s finish on a high. Here are my Day Five picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ROYAL REPEAT

    Embed from Getty Images

    NAP: Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Rohaan always seems to come alive at the Royal meeting. Two Wokingham’s, two wins. But now he’s too high for the handicap, but those two were just as good as Group One performances, and shouldn’t’ have trouble here. People may say that he is punching above his weight with the likes of the Aussie Artorius, and the Hong Kong raider Wellington, but I think he holds his own, especially when he’s at Ascot. His record is 4 wins out of six at the Berkshire track, and he finished fourth in a Group One last year. And, dare I say, the draw might suit him.

    Watch out for Kinross, who had a stellar season last year with many trips over the seven furlongs. He dropped back to six in the Champions Sprint Stakes here and wowed with an eye-catching performance. He’s been overtaken in the market by the two international raiders, and Highfield Princess, but he shouldn’t be discounted, particularly now with Frankie on form. Fourth-best in the market at 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill).

    PYLE IN TOP GEAR

    Embed from Getty Images

    E/W BET: Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – Pyledriver @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    I can’t accept that Pyledriver is at that price, at course he loves, on ground he loves. He hasn’t been seen since winning the King George last year due to injuries and various setbacks, but William Muir and Chris Grassick love this horse, and won’t have run him unless he was 100% fit. He’s has lost to Hukum before, but he bounced back in the King George last year. He has some sketchy form when coming back of a break, but recently he’s been winning, and there’s no reason to say he can’t here.

    HAGGAS IN THE HANDICAP

    Embed from Getty Images

    Handicap Best: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Khanjar @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

    Looking at the pace map, it’s all over the shop, so draw may not matter. There is some pace coming out of stalls 25-28, and Khanjar can lock on to it from 24. Haggas has only sent out three runners, and ended up with a winner in Desert Hero. And the combination of Haggas, Crowley and Shadwell in a handicap should strike fear into their rivals. Plus his form makes for good reading; ran a good race at Hamilton (stiff track) and finished a length behind the winner. The cheek-pieces are on to sharpen him up, which is always a good sign. Plus a bit of C&D can’t go amiss.

    Looking further down the market First Folio for James Ferguson makes appeal at 25/1 (General). He has won a heritage handicap, the Macmillan Sprint at York in 2021 and finished sixth in last year’s Wokingham. He’s been given the same handicap rating as he did, but Taylor Fisher takes 5lbs off him and might give him a chance to finish a bit closer than he did last time.

    Another big price fancy is Kape Moss, who could provide a first Royal winner for Billy Loughnane. He rides for his father David, and claims a crucial 3lbs. Kape Moss may not have top class handicap form, but her last two races have been in listed company, and couldn’t just get to the winner at Haydock last time out. She’s well handicapped, and with a talented rider on board, she could spring a surprise at 28/1 (General).

    Selections:

    14:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) – La Guarida @ 7/1 (Boylesports)

    15:05 – Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – Olivia Maralda @ 6/1 (10Bet, Betfred, Boylesports, BetGoodwin)

    15:40 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – ROHAAN (NAP) @ 10/1 (10Bet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK), Kinross e/w @ 7/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    16:20 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – PYLEDRIVER (E/W) @ 13/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    17:00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – KHANJAR (H’CAP) @ 11/1 (BetVictor, William Hill), First Folio e/w @ 25/1 (General), Kape Moss e/w @ 28/1 (General)

    17:35 – Golden Gates H’cap – Lion Of War @ 6/1 (General)

    Embed from Getty Images

    18:10 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – Stratum @ 5/2 (Unibet, Betfred, BetVictor), Falcon Eight e/w @ 15/2 (Unibet, BetVictor)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Yes, you would be correct in thinking about what is currently on your mind. ‘What state was Ash in when the Palace Of Hollyroodhouse Stakes finished?’ Well, after a day of four selections, one place and no winners, it was safe to say I wasn’t the happiest.

    But then again, you dust yourself off, pick yourself up, and roll into Royal Ascot Day 5.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Has this week been tough for people having a bet? Yes. Did I expect good success after Triple Time won the Queen Anne in what seems like a race that took place six months ago? Yes. But these things happen and this series hadn’t accumulated an ROI of 80% pre-Ascot for no reason.

    To keep you in touch with recent results, after Tuesday, the P&L was at +27.75 at an ROI of 73%. Now, after Friday, we are +12.85 at an ROI of 24%. That is tough reading, but we have three fancies to hang our hopes on, so let’s get started.

     

    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – Wellington @ 11/2 with William Hill – 2pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Hong Kong is yet to have a runner at this year’s Royal Ascot, but today, WELLINGTON is holding their hopes and dreams.

    Trained by Richard Gibson, the six-year-old by All Too Hard is one of the world’s best sprinters, that is a fact, and he has been bumping heads with Lucky Sweynesse on multiple occasions over the last year, a horse who is the number one sprinter in the world.

    Wellington actually beat his fierce rival at Sha Tin in the Premier Bowl handicap last October when giving nine pounds away.

    Everything circulating on Twitter and social media suggests he has travelled over well and at 11/2, that is an incredible each-way price with William Hill, and I can’t wait to see this Hong Kong star at the legendary Ascot.

     

    Wokingham Stakes – Orazio @ 6/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    This horse. This is the one I can’t desert. All the chat about NAP of the week comes down to this.

    Any regular readers or viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast will know that ORAZIO for Charlie Hills has been my bet of Royal Ascot for a few weeks.

    This colt by Caravaggio bolted up over course and distance last time out following a decent win at Newmarket the month prior.

    Further before that, he missed all of 2022 and some of 2021 due to what seems like a setback and for a £215,000 purchase as a yearling, that would have been annoying, so to have him firing on all cylinders is promising to see.

    Off 102, I think the mark is still fair and if he is a Group horse in the making then a win today in the Wokingham, a difficult handicap at the best of times, should hopefully happen.

    The only thing that is a worry is the form of the yard at four winners from 33 runners, the reason why this is a win-only bet as he could either go very close or not fire at all.

    Embed from Getty Images

    I have hopes that we can see a nice performance tomorrow from stall 29, so good luck to William Buick and his connections.

     

    Golden Gates Handicap – Knockbrex @ 7/2 with BoyleSports – 3pt WIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    Although Orazio is one of my best bets of the week, KNOCKBREX has become a close second to my strength in the bet.

    His York performance thoroughly impressed me despite not winning as he made all under Andrea Ateni and forced his competitors off the bridle before being passed late on when victim to doing too much too soon.

    The form of that race has worked out nicely as well because the winner, Chesspiece, ran a good race behind Gregory in the Queen’s Vase and the second, Land Legend, was a big eyecatcher from the King George V Handicap.

    Speaking of Gregory, Charlie Johnston’s colt by Ulysses got to within two lengths of the highly-impressive John & Thady Gosden-trained horse at Haydock, a race that saw him pass horses rather than make all which shows the versatility of his running style.

    And even a look at his pedigree excites me as he is out of a Pivotal mare (an angle I love) with the dam a half-sister to the two-time Listed winner Answered and a full sister to Peripatetic, a recent winner of the Listed Tapster Stakes at Goodwood two weeks ago.

    Embed from Getty Images

    The cross of Ulysess out of a Pivotal mare is actually one that has produced the useful Holloway Boy, Gwan So, and Relentless Voyager in recent years, so off a mark of 90, I like the chances of Knockbrex in the Golden Gates Handicap.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    We are over the hump and on the downhill run to the end of this glorious meeting as it’s Royal Ascot Day 4.

    For the first two selections yesterday, COLTRANE was a tough pill to swallow in the Gold Cup and BLESS drifted across the track which didn’t aid her chances. TOIMY SON missed the break in the last race and despite staying on at the line, David Menuisier’s charge couldn’t regain the distance.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Anyway, it was a tough day, but hopefully, we can have some more success today.

     

    Albany Stakes – Soprano @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The opening race of the day is the Albany Stakes for two-year-old fillies over six furlongs, a race that is always competitive, but it’s SOPRANO that gets my vote of confidence.

    George Boughey hasn’t had the best of weeks at Ascot so far, but this Starspangledbanner filly by Lealas Daughter, a half-sister to three-time Grade 1-winning Obviously, gives him his best hope of a winner.

    Having been bought at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales in October for 100,000GNS, he made his Newmarket debut a winning one over five furlongs, a race he was hurried along in from two furlongs out.

    However, the turn of foot he showed once he got going was impressive and with his 49-day break from the track, it seems connections have had this race over six furlongs in mind for a while.

    In what isn’t a vintage crop for the Albany, Soprano could be the best of the lot.

     

    Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Aimeric @ 10/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Roger Varian has yet to have a winner at Royal Ascot 2023, however, day four is where I’m hoping that changes as AIMERIC will be carrying my money (the instant curse) at 10/1 with William Hill.

    This Frankel half-brother to none other than Aclaim, the 2017 Prix de la Foret winner turned sire standing at Manton Park, has raced seven times on the track, winning on three occasions.

    The most recent victory came 21 days ago at Doncaster, his first run after a wind and gelding operation.

    That return to form was promising to see as he once beat El Habeeb in a maiden at Chester over 1m4f, a horse who is now rated 110 and ran an eyecatching race behind Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month.

    The handicapper only brandished him with a four-pound rise in the weights for his run last time out and if he can continue to improve on his second run after a wind-op (the age-old cliché), then off a mark of 96, this four-year-old is an interesting way into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

     

    Sandringham Stakes – Jackie Oh @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt WIN

    Embed from Getty Images

    An angle into handicaps I always like to follow is the class horse at the top of the weights.

    In this year’s race, JACKIE OH is the one that can hopefully continue Aidan O’Brien’s incredible form this week.

    Having been supplemented into the Irish Guineas for €50,000, she ran a great race behind Tahiyra and Meditate last time out despite the massive hike in class from a Listed event to Group 1 company.

    She seemed to enjoy the better ground last time out and by Galileo out of Jacqueline Quest, a 1000 Guineas runner-up, she has good relations to Line Of Duty (Breeders’ Cup Turf Juvenile winner), Secret State (110-rated Godolphin four-year-old) and Onassis (two-time Listed winner for Charlie Fellowes).

    Hopefully, she will be able to defy her mark of 102 and can continue O’Brien’s streak of Royal Ascot success.

     

    Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes – Rocket Rodney @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    And finally, this series is called ‘The Top Three’, but with the difficulty of splitting these four selections, I’m including them all on the P&L.

    In the finale over five furlongs, ROCKET RODNEY looks wildly overpriced at 22/1 with William Hill.

    Keeping this short and sweet, he looked brilliant in the preliminaries before last year’s Windsor Castle and gave Little Big Bear a great race WHEN beaten by a neck; that form is worth its weight in gold and could receive another boost if O’Brien’s stable star obliges in the Commonwealth Cup.

    He also beat Eddie’s Boy three times last season, a subsequent Group 3 winner, and even put four lengths between himself and Rumstar, another subsequent Group 3 winner, in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown in July.

    If you can ignore his last run of the season on ground that didn’t suit and his seasonal reappearance when he needed the run, returning to a favourable course and distance should benefit his chances and the handicapper has dropped him six pounds in two runs.

    Off 99, with all of that Group-level form, George Scott’s Dandy Man colt is a great each-way chance in the last.

     

    Other fancies for the day (not including on P&L):

    • Little Big Bear 11/10 & Shaquille 9/1 (3:05)
    • Arrest 7/2 (5:35)