Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • Breeders Cup | Carla’s Way on the highway

    Breeders Cup | Carla’s Way on the highway

    With weather-related abandonments sweeping across the UK and Ireland this weekend, the one meeting we can rely on is the glorious Breeders’ Cup.

    Hosted at Santa Anita, with a scenic view in the backdrop, the next two days of American action should entice all fans of racing whether you prefer the jumps or the Flat.

    Three juvenile Grade 1 races take place on the Santa Anita turf course this evening and I have three fancies to bring you down below, though one occurs in a Listed contest earlier in the card.

     

    7:40 Santa Anita – Elm Drive @ 5/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Although this isn’t a Grade 1, the Listed Senator Ken Maddy Stakes at 7:40 over six-and-a-half furlongs has caught my attention as Elm Drive is the one I’m with.

    White Moonlight represents Saeed bin Suroor at the head of the market, a horse I backed in defeat at Goodwood last time out, and today’s trip is her first career try at the distance.

    Despite her form when beating Heredia at Musselburgh in June, I’m happy to let her win at 11/4 on her first start for 93 days.

    Because of this, Elm Drive looks like a worthy second-favourite to take her on with as Philip D’Amato’s four-year-old by Mohaymen has good course and distance form from her decisive victory over Honey Pants in May 2023.

    Following that run on the turf, she switched to the dirt for her next three outings, two of which proved to be valiant performances in defeat when third in the Grade 2 Great Lady M Stakes in July and third in the Grade 1 Clement L Hirsch Stakes in August.

    The latter of which occurred over eight-and-a-half furlongs, a trip that looked to be slightly too far as she faded in the final few furlongs; the winner, Adare Manor, bolted up by five-and-a-quarter lengths on her next start to frank the form.

    At 5/1, it’s a classic scummy each-way play, but that’s how I’ll play the race.

     

    9:00 Santa Anita – Crimson Advocate @ 4/1 with Boylesports – 1pt Win

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    George Weaver came to Royal Ascot this year and walked away with the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes in his clutches thanks to Crimson Advocate, and he’ll be hoping to build on that success in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Now sporting the colours of Wathnan Racing, the Nyquist filly hasn’t been seen since that success here in the UK, so one might hold a small amount of worry coming into today off a 135-day break, though surely connections will have her spot on for a race as prestigious and valuable as this.

    At first glance, the Juvenile Turf Sprint looks to have plenty of pace as Big Evs, No Nay Mets, Cherry Blossom, and Slider all have the ability to race prominently.

    Crimson Advocate also made all on her second start of the season at Gulfstream in May and led the field from the one-furlong pole to the line at Ascot, so she could do something similar from stall one if breaking well.

    That being said, if she breaks slower than some of her competitors, there will be a strong pace ahead of her to aim at and with her experience over five furlongs on quick ground around a bend, she could make a late charge to the wire under John Velazquez.

    As much as I would love to see Big Evs land the spoils for Mick Appleby and Tom Marquand, Crimson Advocate looks like a strong contender and with 4/1 available, that looks like a good price.

     

    10:20 Santa Anita – Carla’s Way @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As explained yesterday on X, I’m a big fan of Carla’s Way for Simon & Ed Crisford and hopefully, today can be her time to land a Grade 1 contest.

    The Starspangledbanner filly picked up her second victory of the season in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket in late September, a race that has worked out well in the form books as Ylang Ylang and Shuwari filled out the first two places in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile on their next start.

    Visually, the manner of her success over seven furlongs at HQ impressed me the most as she sat prominently throughout alongside the early pacesetter Spiritual, clocking furlongs of 11.26, 11.04, and 11.06 between the one-furlong and four-furlong poles.

    As Spiritual began to fade back – partly due to her ability and the early pace – James Doyle’s mount continued to press on, leaving Shuwari and Ylang Ylang with work to do.

    Inevitably, they didn’t catch Carla’s Way who needed little encouragement to win by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

    As stated in a piece for The Irish Field (shameless plug) and in the tweet above, her pedigree – Starspangledbanner out of Sulaalaat – does worry me for her staying a mile, though a fast-paced American race should be a nice introduction to eight furlongs ahead of next season.

    All in all, she looks like the best horse on paper and if she can navigate the task of stall nine, hopefully she will have a Grade 1 success next to her name by the end of today.

  • Four To Follow: Cheltenham Crackers

    Four To Follow: Cheltenham Crackers

    Cheltenham. Is. Back. And it looms a cracker of a card, and it’s only the first meeting of the season. Plenty of clues with the novice divisions already taking shape, and some handicaps to savour too. Plus we, might, have the final Group One on the flat at Doncaster that may see an upset on the boggy ground. It’s Saturday, it’s Four to Follow.

    Lord Almighty

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    2:25 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Lord Accord @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Neil Mulholland’s star won this race last year, and is back to do it all again on the Old Course. The big statistic that has made him been backed in, is he is only one pound higher than last year’s mark. The ground will not be a bother, and his running style suits the trip and course to a T. I just can’t look past him, even if he might be too short for a handicap.

    Twig is another to consider for the Ben Pauling team, who had an emotional winner with Mole Court yesterday. Twig has won his last tow starts, over both hurdle and chase classes, at this level. The handicap has given him a five pound rise, which Beau Morgan immediately takes off with the claim. The ground is good, whilst a little rain softened, which is perfect for a nice swing at 9/1 (William Hill).

    And with extra places on offer with bookmakers, the third pick is an Irish raider. Henry de Bromhead and Gordon Elliott always bring a string over to every Cheltenham meeting, and they’re not just there for peanuts. De Bromhead saddles Whacker Clan who won’t mind the good-ish ground, despite a win on soft ground last time out. Down in the handicap and a big price at 16/1 (William Hill).

    A New Pick

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    3:00 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle – Hugos New Horse @ 15/2 (Unibet)

    Ah, the Pertemps. One of jumps racing’s greatest creations. But I can’t really understand why Hugos New Horse is as big as he is. He’s only been raised two pounds for a rather convincing win at Ayr on his final start last season and makes him quite well handicap. In the colours of the Stewart Family, which carries some credibility, Paul Nicholls can get a Cheltenham winner on the board with this eye-catcher.

    Syd Hosie had an incredible win on Trials Day last year with Rock My Way, which prompted some wild celebrations in the winners’ enclosure. Fate didn’t repeat itself at the Festival but comes to this race well handicapped. Whilst he might not have won on ‘good’, it might ride a little softer today which will benefit. He loves Cheltenham, and is worth to take on at 14/1 (BetVictor)

    And I can’t really get past Party Business at 18/1 (Betfred). He’s coming off a run and a wind operation but is a regular runner over good-to-soft ground. He’s been waiting to get an attractive mark it looks lie he’s got it. He’s two pounds higher than his previous winning mark, which was at Aintree in 2022, and he could run a big race here.

    Eh Laddie

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    3:45 – William Hill Novices’ Hurdle – Lisnamult Lad @ 6/1 (General)

    Whilst Antrim Coast is odds-on for beating a non-favourite Willie Mullins horse last time out (And the Keith Donoghue Cheltenham factor), I’m unsure why John McConnell’s horse is 6/1. The trainer has sent the winner out twice in the last three years, and this horse seems like a wild thing. Three out of four over hurdles, his last two winning margins are a combined 44 ½ lengths. He has licence to step up in trip and can overturn the market.

    Doing A Donny Rain Dance

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    Doncaster 2:10 – KAMEKO Futurity Trophy (Group One) – Dancing Gemini @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    This meeting could be called off, so ignore this if it is. But I still think that Dancing Gemini would still win in the swimming turf. Breeding-wise, Camelot won the Irish Derby on soft/heavy ground and won the Flying Scotsman on soft ground by 4 ½ lengths. Ice Max is the only one who has franked the form, but form goes out the window when the ground gets as bottomless as it is in South Yorkshire.

    Just keep an eye out for Devil’s Point at 22/1 (888Sport). David Menusier won a Group One 2-Y-O race at Saint-Cloud on Sunday, and Devil’s Point has heavy ground in his breeding thanks to New Bay. He can run a big race on bottomless.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • British Champions Day | Awaal or nothing – The Top Three

    British Champions Day | Awaal or nothing – The Top Three

    British Champions Day is the annual finale to the Flat turf season here in the UK, and what a year we have had.

    From Mostahdaf’s defiant performance in the Juddmonte International to Paddington’s string of Group 1s; Aidan O’Brien’s two British Classics and Tony Carroll’s Racing League winner, 2023 has experienced plenty of uplifting moments.

    Soft ground is on the menu for British Champions Day this year and with this in mind, three horses stand out as good plays for the season-crowing raceday, so let’s dive in.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Bluestocking @ 8/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Bluestocking is a horse that I have dodged all season, something that has produced good success most of the time, however, that will all change this weekend as she is the one I’m backing in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes.

    Ralph Beckett’s Camelot filly has been a consistent horse for connections thanks to her five consecutive top four performances this season.

    She began her year at Newbury when second by a head to Warm Heart, a subsequent two-time Group 1 winner, in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes.

    Following that, she finished third to Warm Heart again in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot on ground that was probably too quick for her, something that can also be said for her fourth-place effort in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks in August.

    Splitting both of these runs was her second to Savethelastdance in the Group 1 Irish Oaks on soft ground, a race that saw her beat Lumiere Rock and Warm Heart who admittedly didn’t have her ideal conditions.

    Following a slightly disappointing second at Chester last time out, connections have applied first-time cheekpieces and the slower conditions should suit her better than a few others.

    8/1 seems like a good price for a horse who has run into Group 1-level horses all season, many of which are not up against her on Saturday.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Paddington @ 9/4 General – 2pt Win

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    Forgive me if I’ve missed something, but I can’t believe Paddington is as big as 9/4 for the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    Admittedly, this is the second-toughest field that the Siyouni colt has taken on all year, but how much is there to worry about regarding his market rivals?

    Tahiyra is a horse he has yet to face this season and in the current form she is in, you can understand her well-fancied nature.

    However, her form with Meditate, Remarquee, and Rogue Millenium is below the level of horses Paddington has battled with this season and trainer Dermot Weld did state at the start of the month that he wanted the ground to be “suitable” and not “too heavy” if Tahiyra was to run, so this week’s deluge hasn’t helped her chances.

    In my eyes, Nashwa is the biggest danger to Aidan O’Brien’s 125-rated three-year-old based on her third to Auguste Rodin in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes and her second in the Group 1 Juddmonte International.

    Although she finished ahead of Paddington at York, I think those placings can be reversed as this was Paddington’s first start on good to firm ground and he was racing just 21 days after a gruelling effort in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes on soft ground.

    Furthermore, Paddington kept close to Mostahdaf’s powerful gallop in second place for the majority of the contest whereas Nashwa bided her time in third and picked up the pieces late on, so she had an easier route through.

    With the benefit of nearly two months on the sidelines, Paddington will be a fresh horse and everything in his breeding suggests slow ground should be no problem, making the 9/4 about him an attractive price.

    4:25 Ascot – Awaal @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    The Balmoral Handicap is always a tough race to decipher and this year’s soft going on Ascot’s straight course doesn’t help the puzzle at all.

    Plenty in here hold interesting profiles and should handle the ground – The Gatekeeper, Baradar, and Bennetot as examples – but Awaal at 9/1 is the one who has turned my head.

    Simon & Ed Crisford have experienced a season to remember in 2023 thanks to recent victories in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, Group 2 Rockfel Stakes, and Group 3 Prix Quincey as well as the Group 1 accolades picked up with Vandeek.

    Awaal is unlucky not to have landed another big pot for the yard having placed in the Lincoln, Royal Hunt Cup, Bunbury Cup, and Guisborough Stakes.

    Despite his consistently good performances, the handicapper has looked leniently upon the Lope De Vega gelding as his official rating of 104 looks more than fair considering the horses he has run into.

    The likes of Migration, Jimi Hendrix, Sonny Liston, and Biggles have all finished ahead of him this year, and although a few of these reappear on Saturday, Awaal should have the ability to win a race like this off his current mark whereas Migration and Sonny Lison have a few extra pounds in the handicap to carry.

    With conditions set to suit, Awaal could be dangerous breaking out stall 22 and if he gets a clear route, he looks a fair each-way bet at 9/1.

  • Chepstow Jumps Opener | Molly Wishing for Silver Trophy success

    Chepstow Jumps Opener | Molly Wishing for Silver Trophy success

    It was really good to be back at the Chepstow Jumps Opener yesterday, not just because of the thrill of proper national hunt racing, but also due to the fact I got to see a stunning chasing debut with my own eyes.

    Chianti Classico provided BestofBets readers with some tidy profit yesterday as Kim Bailey’s six-year-old jumped like an experienced chaser and won snugly under David Bass.

    His win made up for the agonising defeat of Aye Right in the opener, so it really was a day of mixed emotions yesterday.

    Looking at today, fewer horses stand out as clearly as they did yesterday, however, three horses still grabbed my attention for the second day of action at the Welsh course.

     

    3:10 Chepstow – Collectors Item @ 10/1 General – 1pt Win

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    Heavy ground is on the menu at Chepstow today after yesterday’s deluge, something that can only benefit the chance of Collectors Item in the Listed Novices’ Chase at 3:10.

    The Jonjo O’Neill-trained six-year-old won on this card last year in the two-mile novice hurdle to beat Hugos New Horse by two-and-a-quarter lengths; Hugos New Horse went on to win four races after this run to frank the form.

    This performance over the minimum distance surprised connections as they always thought he would be better over a further distance, though his victory at this track and second at Newbury over two miles in a bumper shows that he has plenty of speed.

    After the turn of the new year, the £115,000 purchase won on his first start at three miles to beat Makin’yourmindup, though Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old reversed the form in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle one month later.

    When speaking to Jonjo O’Neill Jnr last season, he said that “whatever he does this year is a bonus as he will definitely go over fences” and that he was still growing into his frame at the start of this year.

    One can deduce from these comments that he slightly overperformed expectations last year and, interestingly, connections are sending him into this Listed contest on his first run over fences.

    Admittedly, Collectors Item has to find a bit on ratings with Knappers Hill and Unexpected Party, however, there’s a chance that Paul Nicholls’ Grade 2-winning hurdler prefers better ground and Dan Skelton’s second-season novice still needs to prove himself over fences.

    Although today’s task is over 2m3f, Collectors Item is a proven stayer over further and with conditions set to be in his favour, this unexposed type could take a big step forward today.

     

    4:15 Chepstow – Molly Ollys Wishes @ 8/1 General – 1pt EW

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    The £70,000 Wasdell Group Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle highlights the second day of the Chepstow Jumps Opener and plenty here have interesting profiles.

    Both Uncle Bert and Sign From Above lured me in for a prolonged look into their form, though the one I couldn’t get away from was Molly Ollys Wishes at 8/1.

    Despite her victory in the Listed bet365 Mares’ Hurdle in October, the nine-year-old mare had a season to forget last year as she was unfound in her five subsequent runs, although three of them can be forgiven due to trip and ground reasons.

    Having started last season on an official mark of 143, Dan Skelton’s experienced hurdler rocks up to today’s Silver Trophy off a mark of 134 and with Tristan Durrell’s valuable five-pound claim, she is very well-handicapped on all known form.

    Admittedly, one has to go back to December 2020 for her last handicap victory when successful off a mark of 130 under Harry Skelton at Kempton, but from there, Molly Ollys Wishes was pitched into 11 straight level-weights contests and managed to win the Grade 2 SBK Mares’ Hurdle in January 2022 and three Listed-level races.

    Of these four most recent victories, all of them came off a break of at least 50 days and two of them were on her seasonal reappearance, so her record when fresh is impeccable.

    Furthermore, all four of these victories came on ground varying from good to soft (Wetherby) to heavy (Warwick), so today’s heavy conditions should suit well.

    As suggested, a few unexposed types in here could show vast improvement, but with the well-handicapped nature of Molly Ollys Wishes, it’s hard to leave her alone.

     

    4:50 Chepstow – Despereaux @ 7/1 General – 1pt EW

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    Since the non-runner announcement of Afadil yesterday, Chepstow’s penultimate race turned into an interesting betting contest and the one that appeals the most is Despereaux at 7/1.

    Jane Williams’ four-year-old comes into his seasonal reappearance as an unexposed prospect having raced just five times last season.

    He showed plenty of greenness during his first run in a junior national hunt hurdle at Ffos Las, so much so that he ran himself out before the final flight.

    This exuberance continued into his second start at Huntingdon in November, though David Noonan managed to hold him together after the last and guided him home to what was an impressive half-a-length success.

    After Christmas, the Great Pretender gelding rocked up to a hot Class 2 juvenile hurdle at Huntingdon and despite what the eight-length third may suggest, he performed well in the circumstances.

    In a race won by Perseus Way, a Gary Moore-trained gelding that went on to finish second in the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle on his next start, Despereaux jumped the last hurdle one-length behind the eventual winner, however, he made a big blunder which cost him any chance at winning the race.

    Even with this final flight mistake, he ran through the line well under Noonan to finish five lengths behind the second, Samuel Spade; Ben Pauling’s four-year-old bolted up by 16 lengths on his next start, further franking the form.

    Following an impressive two-length victory at Taunton in March and a disappointing effort in the big Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, Despereaux finds himself on a workable mark of 116, the second-lowest rating in the race.

    I find it hard to believe he is the second-worst horse in today’s four-year-old hurdle, so for this reason, taking a swing at 7/1 looks like an exciting idea.

  • Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Whilst the entire racing public will focus in on the jumps action at Chepstow, I’m still infatuated with the flat. Some of the top jumps trainers will head to the Rowley Mile this week to contest the Cesarewitch on Saturday, but there’s also top 2-Y-O action along in the Future Champions Festival. We also get to see some old friends sprinting up at York in their final meeting of the season. Here’s this week’s Four To Follow.

    Newmarket

    A Shuwed bet

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    Friday 4:10 – Fillies’ Mile (Group One) – Shuwari @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    With a name like Sangster, a lot is expected of you. And it’s not often a first-year trainer gets a special one straight away. But Shuwari just looks like that. Bred by French Derby winner New Bay, and from a staying family, Shuwari may be one to challenge for the classics. Her run in the Rockfel came with plenty of positives. She stayed on past the line and could have been bang up there with Carla’s Way had she not dwelt the start. Stepping up to a mile won’t be a problem & she’s clearly the one to beat. Favoruites have a strong record in the race, with the last four winners all top of the shop.

    Definitely not wooden

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    Saturday 2:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (Group One) – City Of Troy @ 1/2 (William Hill)

    Sometimes form goes out the window and you go on with what you have seen. And City of Troy was probably the most impressive juvenile winner of the season. He blew the field away on the July course by six-and-a-half lengths and has been kept incredibly fresh for this contest. With plenty of black-type in his pedigree, he can certainly justify odds-on. Only one odds-on shot has been overturned in the last 17 runnings.

     

    Meade for this

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    Saturday 2:40 – Cesarewitch (Heritage H’cap) – Jesse Evans @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    The Cesarewtich is a notoriously tough handicap, but if there’s on trend to follow; back jump trainers. Only three have breached the dominance from the flat world in the last ten years. And whilst everyone is looking to Pied Piper, it’s worth noting that the former flat horse didn’t have much success at this level. Jesse Evans represents better value and has had a fantastic season this Summer. Two wins on the flat, narrowly beaten in the Galway Hurdle and almost landed the Irish version in a tight finish. There’s no doubt he will be up there again.

    Another Meade runner makes appeal further down the market. Sheishybrid finished second in the Cesarewitch Trial two weeks ago and remains on the same mark. She has been on the upgrade in her past few runs, and with three pounds taken off there may be a slight advantage over rival Grand Providence. A wide draw may be a negative, but it shouldn’t make too much difference over two miles and two furlongs. Worth a go at 20/1 (General).

    And it wouldn’t be a Cesarewitch without a Willie Mullins runner. And one at a price is Zenon. She returned off a break of nearly three years to dust the cobwebs off at Bellewstown. Zenon looks to have a preference for softer ground, so conditions may not be ideal. But with 33 rivals around, there’s chance to get a piece of luck somewhere. It’s a big call up for Saffie Osborne, but she’s had a stellar season and can top it off with a big win. 28/1 (William Hill).

     

    York

    No Wobbling about

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    Saturday 2:25 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Wobwobwob @ 10/1 (Betfred)

    Wobwobwob enjoyed success last time out at Ayr winning the Silver Cup. But I feel that the race was a stepping stone to bigger things. And this looks like the target. His past three runs have all been brilliant, from second on heavy Goodwood ground to two pleasing runs in this company. Adrian Paul Keatley will be following a very positive trend of Northern trained winners of the race. Wobwobwob looks primed and ready.

    In behind, Kevin Ryan saddles four runners. This shows how seriously he takes this race, and I think a couple will be at their best today. Firstly, Bielsa who has had a spread out campaign. But he started the season off with a win over C&D and is only three pounds higher in the weights.  It’s also the mark he won off in his Ayr Gold Cup victory in 2021. He looks more than an each-way shout at 14/1 (Betfred).

    The second Kevin Ryan runner I’m suited by is Magical Spirit. Stable jockey Tom Eaves gets the leg up yet finds himself down in the market. He finished third behind Bielsa after a winning start at Doncaster. Now he’s a pound lower than that winning mark and can display a similar performance to that in May. Take a chance at 33/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • Chepstow Jumps Opener | Right place, Right time

    Chepstow Jumps Opener | Right place, Right time

    Yes, there is Group 1 action at Newmarket on Friday, but tomorrow is the Chepstow jumps opener and I can’t contain my excitement.

    In isolation, the action at Chepstow wouldn’t knock your socks off, but it’s the wider picture of the ‘proper’ national hunt season starting today that I can’t stop thinking about.

    Ahead of flag-fall at the Welsh track, today’s The Top Three includes three horses to consider on the curtain-raiser of the winter jumps campaign.

     

    1:35 Chepstow – Aye Right @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I always find veteran chases interesting contests to try and find a bet in as experienced, lovable characters get to compete against horses of a similar ability at their grand age. What more can you ask for?

    The opening race at Chepstow includes a nice flurry of nostalgia and of the 10-runner field, it’s Aye Right that makes the most appeal.

    The highest-rated horse in the race is down to a mark of 150 which seems lenient considering he finished second in last year’s Edinburgh Gin Chase when officially rated six pounds higher.

    The form of Kelso’s feature race of the year has worked out well as the winner, Sounds Russian, finished second to Ahoy Senor in the 2023 Cotswold Chase and is now rated 11 pounds higher and the sixth, Eva’s Oskar, won a valuable Cheltenham handicap two months later.

    Speaking of the Cotswold Chase, you don’t have to go back too far through the form book to see Aye Right’s third-place effort in the 2022 renewal behind the two-time Grade 1 winner Chantry House and the lovable Santini.

    In a veterans chase like this against some horses who would appreciate better ground, Aye Right will enjoy the rain-softened Chepstow ground and with a healthy first-time-out record on his side, 4/1 seems a fair price.

     

    3:23 Chepstow – Chianti Classico @ 11/4 General – 2pt Win

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    As someone who lives in Gloucestershire and covers the sport for Gloucestershire Live, it seems fitting that on the elected ‘first day of the national hunt season’, I should put up Chianti Classico for the Andoversford-based Kim Bailey.

    I spoke to Bailey at the end of last season and one horse we spoke about was this gelding by Shantou who he holds in high regard at Thorndale Farm, so much so that he ran him in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

    Unfortunately for connections, he pulled up before the last flight in a messy renewal of the staying novice hurdle, though a vet assessment revealed he had post-race heat stress which could explain parts of the run.

    Before that, the six-year-old bolted up on good to soft ground at Wincanton by 24 lengths under David Bass to beat Stoner’s Choice, who went on to win 107 days later for Fergal O’Brien, and the brilliant galloper also has course form on his side thanks to his length-and-a-quarter victory over Henri The Second last October.

    With an official rating of 133, it’s interesting that connections are sending him into a novices’ handicap chase tomorrow rather than a standard novice chase on his first start over fences.

    With the yard in good form – two winners from eight runners in the last 14 days – and having his first start after a wind-op, Chanti Classico is an unexposed type who should be a cracking chaser this season.

     

    3:58 Chepstow – Politacus @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It looks as if the Fergal O’Brien yard is back on song following three winners over the last two days, one of which was an impressive debut over hurdles performance from Kamsinas at Worcester.

    With this in mind, taking a swing at Politacus on her first public outing over obstacles doesn’t look like a bad idea.

    In what will be the first and final piece of self-promotion in The Top Three, I went down to Ravenswell Farm last week to talk to O’Brien ahead of the season starting and one horse we discussed was his five-year-old mare by Epaulette.

    The esteemed trainer explained that he thought her fourth in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at the Aintree Grand National Festival behind stablemate Dysart Enos showed good promise and the stamina she displayed over an extended two-mile trip is something to be excited about.

    Therefore, today’s step up in trip to 2m3f should work well and the rain that Chepstow will receive overnight will also benefit her chances.

    Furthermore, Politacus has impressed in her schooling work at home and when asked about how good she could be this year, O’Brien said: “If Politacus shows on the track what she has been showing at home, she won’t be a million miles behind [Dysart Enos].”

    Today’s task for Politacus won’t be simple thanks to the inclusion of Florencethemachine, a £120,000 purchase for Paul Nicholls, and Similar Story, a £32,000 buy for Suart Coltherd who bolted up by 12 lengths on her last point-to-point start, but my faith in her remains in conditions that should suit.

  • Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Ahead of Sun Chariot Day on ITV Racing, The Top Three is in a good run of form following the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe card last week.

    All three of Sunday’s selections returned profit and the weekly column finally found a big-priced winner as Kelina fought off the challenge of Kinross to win the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at 16/1.

    Hopefully this can continue on what is an action-packed Saturday as I have three horses to consider from Ascot and Newmarket.

     

    1:50 Ascot: Emaraaty Ana @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s always hard to walk away from one of your cliff horses as you always ask yourself the question of ‘what if’.

    Luckily, coming into the 2023 Flat season I had managed to shake my attachment to Emaraaty Ana, however, I’ve fallen off the wagon and now firmly believe he is the most likely winner of the Listed Rous Stakes at Ascot at 11/4.

    The seven-year-old stalwart returns to five furlongs for the first time since his third in the 2022 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes behind Highfield Princess and The Platinum Queen, though he did finish a very good second in the most recent Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint behind Caravel over five-and-a-half furlongs.

    Add his second to Winter Power in the 2021 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes and facile victory at Hamilton in July 2021 into the mix and his record over the minimum distance begins to read favourably.

    Despite his age and 31 runs under rules, Kevin Ryan’s Shamardal gelding appears to be in good form based on his neck second to Lezoo – a Group 1 Cheveley Park winner – in the Listed Hopeful Stakes earlier this season as well as his fair third in the Listed Garrowby Stakes at York last month.

    Admittedly, I did question if I was missing something when I saw his price of 11/4 this morning, but his draw in stall two appears to be accounted into his price as high draws were benefitting on the straight course at Ascot yesterday.

    I’m hopeful that his class and a bit of luck can make up for his draw because if this happens, Emaraaty Ana holds a strong chance to return to the winners’ enclosure for the first time in over two years.

     

    2:40 Newmarket: Queen Emma @ 5/2 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Despite my constant barrage of Tony Carroll propaganda, the William Haggas stable ranks quite highly on the list of my favourite trainers in the Flat game.

    From the jockeys they use to how Haggas is in post-race interviews and everything in between, there’s a lot to like.

    Somerville Lodge has eight runners across four tracks to keep an eye on today, though Queen Emma is the one I’m most excited to see in the 1m4f fillies’ handicap at Newmarket.

    The three-year-old by Saxon Warrior comes into her third handicap contest in good form following two victories and a second in her last three races.

    One of those successes came at Goodwood in late August where she travelled smartly into the race and, after a bit of encouragement from Adam Farragher, showed her three rivals a clean set of heels; the second, Madame Ambassador, bolted up by four lengths at Newmarket on her next start, suggesting the form is reliable.

    Furthermore, she was equally as impressive during her first victory of the season as she came four-wide around the bend at Lingfield and managed to make up the five-length deficit between her and the runner-up Marmara Sea with ease; similarly to her Goodwood win, the form looks good as Marmara Sea won on handicap debut at Haydock less than two months later.

    Although she failed to make it a hat-trick last time out, the softer conditions potentially stumped her chances slightly, so the return to a better surface should suit today.

    All in, the booking of Frankie Dettori can only be a positive move for Queen Emma who looks to hold a brilliant chance in the 2:45 at Newmarket.

     

    4:45 Ascot: Existent @ 11/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    I’ve stuck with the theme of horses running in yellow and black silks at Ascot today as in the finale, Existent deserves a chance at 11/1 with Boylesports.

    On paper, plenty would suggest that trusting Stuart Williams’ five-year-old by Kingman is a brave move considering the last time he found the winners’ enclosure was 20 runs ago, yet I’m reluctant to leave him alone thanks to his well-handicapped nature.

    That’s because his official rating of 90 is 10 pounds below his Goodwood second in August, 12 pounds below his promising fifth over course and distance last month and four pounds below his last winning mark.

    That is an incredible fall through the weights for a horse who finished fourth in the Group 2 Temple Stakes in late May, just half a length behind the subsequent Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner Live In The Dream.

    Out of stall 10, Existent is the best horse in this race on bare form and with Hector Crouch, a jockey who knows him, back in the saddle, he looks a decent each-way play in the final race at Ascot.

  • Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Another week, another Group One. This time it’s the Sun Chariot Stakes over on the Rowley Mile, whilst the two-year-olds are in action in the Tattersalls October Sales Race. There’s also the Two-Year-Old Trophy up North at Redcar, and the handicap action comes from Ascot with the Challenge Cup. It’s those races we focus on for this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Newmarket

    Running in the dark

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    2:05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes – Midnite Runner @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    An interesting fact about this fairly new sales race is the Northern trainers have a good record in the race. David Barron, Julie Camacho and Les Eyre have all won this race in the past nine renewals. And it’s another Northern trainer that looks to have some potential to cause an upset to the odds-on favourite. Despite racing green in the early stages, Midnite Runner rallied well in the final quarter mile to win my one-and-a-half lengths. The form hasn’t been thoroughly tested, so Michael Dods looks to have a horse with potential here.

    Further down the market, Drama makes some appeal for James Ferguson and Saffie Osborne. He didn’t perform in the Somerville Auction Stakes on the July course, but you could excuse that to firm ground. His only win came on similar ground, in a novice stakes at Windsor. With Saffie continuing her great form for the season, Drama may be one to consider at 16/1 (Betfred)

    Another for the shortlist is Lieutenant Rascal. Bred by U S Navy Flag, he is the speedy type. But on evidence on his last two runs, he would like the slight step up in trip to six furlongs. He’s had a busy season, even finishing towards the rear in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. His last two performances are the evidence to go on, and can end a barren run for trainer George Scott. 22/1 (Betfred).

     

    On the quiet

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    3:15 – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group One) – Meditate @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    People have been easy to dismiss this horse. She’s always fallen to her superior rival Tahiyra and underperformed in the Prix Jean Prat. But, with no Tahyira and what looks like a weakish Group One on paper, she can certainly hit the frame. In recent renewals, the favourite has been overturned and that makes me prefer Meditate over Inspiral.

     

    Ascot

    Sweet and Smoky

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    3:35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Hickory @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Hickory comes into this in good form. A consistent performer over seven furlongs, he started to enter the conversation with two placed efforts over C&D. Trainer James Fanshawe has aimed him for this handicap, and got in on the bottom weight, which is a big bonus. He wasn’t too far behind Baradar, who reopposes him here, and neither Quinault last time out, who also features. The ground will be to his liking, and is drawn to the far side, which can help him.

    Three-year-olds start to come alive at this time in the season and a youngster who has a chance is Glenfinnian. He’s won over C&D in a classified stakes race and didn’t perform on the ground last time out. He comes in on a nice low weight, and a handy stand-side draw. Andrew Balding has tasted success recently over C&D with Alsakib, and has another live chance here at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Redcar

    Action stations

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    2:45 – William Hill Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) – Action Point @ 17/2 (General)

    Dragon Leader is the overwhelming favourite. And whilst favourites do have a good record, he can be opposed. And Action Point looks to be that rival. He drops in Grade from a French Group Three to a Listed contest, which was the last class of race he won at. The ground will be perfect for him, as he ran creditably on similar ground at Chantilly last time out, but far too firm at York. This should be an interesting race, as Dragon Leader won’t have the ground to his usual rattling preference.

    The very best of luck!

  • Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Prix de lArc de Triomphe Weekend The hope is not Over

    Day one of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe began well yesterday as the best bet of the day, VANDEEK, obliged in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, further improving his reputation and my love for him.

    Today, the feature event takes place at 3:05 and I have a fancy to share as well as two other horses to consider.

    It’s set to be a brilliant day today and I can’t wait for the action to begin.

     

    3:05 Longchamp: Westover @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As is the nature of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, no one would be knocked off their feet if any of the 15 runners passed the famous winning post in front.

    Remember, it’s only been two years since Torquator Tasso won the prestigious 1m4f contest at odds of 72/1, so anything can truly happen.

    I’m hoping that won’t happen this year as Westover is my number one Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe horse.

    The four-year-old colt by Frankel has performed brilliantly all season in four separate Group 1 races; his worst run of the year occurred when second to Emily Upjohn in the Coronation Cup at Epsom which says a lot.

    Ralph Beckett’s stable star began the season with a massive run in the Group 1 Sheema Classic in Meydan behind the world-class Equinox; three horses who finished behind Westover in the Sheema Classic – Zagrey, Russian Emperor, and Mostahdaf – have all won Group 1 races since with the latter succeeding in the Prince Of Wales’s and Juddmonte International.

    Following his fine effort at Epsom in June, he swept aside Zagrey in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud before his valiant effort when second to Hukum in the Group 1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes on his most recent outing.

    The reason why I’m with Westover rather than Hukum is due to the difference in the draw – stall one for Westover against stall 14 for Hukum – and there seems to be an aroma around Owen Burrows’ Sea The Stars entire that he doesn’t want rattling fast ground.

    With this in mind, Westover will have no problems with the official going of good, good to firm in places, and at 7/1, he is my bet in the season-defining race.

     

    3:50 Longchamp: Lumiere Rock @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Prix de l’Opera is a tricky puzzle to work out as many questions require answers ahead of the 10-furlong fillies and mares contest.

    Will Blue Rose Cen bounce back on the ground? Can we forgive Al Husn for York? Why has Tony Carroll not got a runner in the race?

    Each of those questions is as pertinent as one another, though the horse who seems to hold most of the answers is Joseph O’Brien’s Lumiere Rock at 6/1.

    The chestnut filly by Saxon Warrior is no stranger to competitive, high-class races thanks to her five consecutive attempts in Group-level contests since the start of May.

    The three-year-old, purchased for just 55,000gns at the 2021 Tattersalls October Yearlings Sale, got her head in front for the first time this season in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes last time out.

    Again, one could question where Jackie Oh, who reappears today, might have finished if her path to the line was clear, yet let’s take nothing away from the eventual winner who looked like the winner for the majority of the contest.

    Furthermore, her second in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot reads favourably thanks to two subsequent Group 1 victories for the winner, Warm Heart; Bluestocking (3rd) ran well on her next two starts in Group 1 company and even the eighth, Lmay, finished third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster recently.

    She is likely to appreciate the better ground and with the cheekpieces remaining on for today’s task, Lumiere Rock should be a lively contender in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

     

    5:00 Longchamp: Kelina @ 16/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    My persistence to take on Kinross at every station this season has experienced its ups and downs, though my bank account is beginning to get worried after his two victories at York and Goodwood recently.

    Despite his obvious claims, the 16/1 floating about for Kelina in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret is too big to leave alone as an each-way proposition.

    The three-year-old filly by Frankel receives a handy four pounds from her older rivals and has progressed nicely for trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias this season.

    Her 2023 kicked off with a nice second in a one-mile event at Longchamp on soft ground in April before a valiant effort to finish fourth in the Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Pouliches behind Blue Rose Cen, a future Group 1 Prix de Diane winner.

    After that, she dropped down in class for the Group 2 Prix de Sandringham where she easily dismissed Sauterne, one of the market principles for the Prix de l’Opera, on her only start on good ground.

    This race is key as looking at her knee action for both her French 1000 Guineas fourth and this success, she seemingly likes to glide into her races rather than using a big stride like Blue Rose Cen has, suggesting today’s good ground should be preferable.

    Although she disappointed at Deauville in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild, that occurred on soft ground so excuses can be made and her effort in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin last time out was respectable.

    Back on faster ground and dropping in trip to seven furlongs, Kelina looks like a fair each-way bet at 16/1.