Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • Four To Follow: A Poor Turnout

    Four To Follow: A Poor Turnout

    It’s the first domestic Grade One of the season, the Betfair Chase at Haydock, featuring a high-class, yet small, field. It’s a poor turnout for Ascot’s two Grade Two races, which includes the return of a certain Shishkin. The handicap highlight is an intriguing three-mile contest, so let’s get stuck in to this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Haydock

    Lord of the ‘Dock

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    2:20 – “Serial Winners” Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Lord Snootie @ 9/1 (Boylesports)

    Crambo is a very likeable type, but no favourite has won this race in 13 years. Therefore 11/4 offers no value at all.

    Lord Snootie is back in the UK after two runs in Ireland, one credible fifth at Punchestown. Trewlawne beat Lord Snootie at Uttoxeter on his previous British start, and has backed the form with a winning chase debut. The two-pound is lenient and, despite being lightly raced, the ground will be ideal with a three mile point-to-point win coming on similar ground.

    Goshhowposh is another that makes some appeal. A good handicap mark of 121 will suit, after four career runs. His run at Exeter saw him win, going away from the field and the step up in trip will suit. He has never finished outside the top four, and can manage a four pound rise to be up there at the finish. 11/1 (William Hill)

    Emitom seems to have found a new lease of life after to moving to Alan King. A win first time out for the new stable, and a second on seasonal reappearance, he’s got something in the tank for a nine-year-old.

    He was a winner of the Rendlesham Hurdle, back in 2020, over C&D, but fell off the ladder before moving stable. A mark of 127 won’t trouble him and a decent price of 12/1 (General) is one to take.

     

    Man Against Boys

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    3:00 – Betfair Chase (Grade One) – Bravemansgame @ 4/5 (William Hill, BetUK)

    It seems self-explanatory. If Bravemansgame didn’t feature, it would be a poor Grade One. It’s a poor turnout anyway, but Bravemansgame should outclass the field.

    Dan Skelton’s runners aren’t firing first time out, which casts doubt over Protektorat. Royale Pagaille will want it much softer than advertised. It will be interesting to see what Corach Rambler does in Grade One company, and he’s a likeable figure. Best bet for me would be a tricast of Bravemansgame, Corach Rambler and Royale Pagaille.

     

    Ascot

    Smashing Shish, Poor Pic

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    1:30 – 1965 Chase (Grade Two) – Shishkin @ 4/6 (General)

    1965 was the year that Ascot introduced jump racing to the track. What is a premier racing track/venue should have bulging field sizes. Today 39 runners (pre non-runners) will take part. It’s an incredibly poor turnout, but it’s made up by the return of Shishkin. When people thought he was avoiding a tough trip first time out, I think were wrong. This a perfect race to get his season started, and a déjà vu match with Pic D’orhy too.

     

    The Other Stage

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    2:05 – Coral Hurdle (Grade Two) – Theatre Glory @ 11/4 (BetUK)

    Nicky Henderson has been particularly bullish about this horse, and I can support him on that view. Goshen is always inconsistent and won a low-class renewal last season. Blueking D’Oroux was a decent winner at Cheltenham in October but was hardly tested. Strong Leader was hugely disappointing in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. And, Sceau Royal has his best races behind him. By process of elimination, Theatre Glory is the pick.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Sweet Ending – November Meeting Day Three

    Four To Follow: A Sweet Ending – November Meeting Day Three

    After the fortunes of Day One, comes the losses of Day Two. It’s been an up and down couple of days for Four To Follow, but we aim to end on a high with some competitive Sunday action. The Greatwood Hurdle takes centre stage, with some interesting picks. Here’s a rare Sunday Four To Follow.

     

    What’s The Name?

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    1:10 – mallardjewllers.com Maiden Hurdle – Tellherthename@ 2/1 (General)

    The Kemble Brewery was a great winner in the last race at the Showcase Meeting and shows over hurdles for the first time here. But I think some experience is needed when it comes to these races, and Tellherthename has made a good account of himself. Nosed off at Ascot, when leading in the final 150yds, his performance on soft ground can’t go unnoticed here.

    And Cannock Park seems to love a bit of cut, judging by his win at Bangor last time out. The form hasn’t worked out well for Cannock Park, but sometimes a four-length win says enough. He’s a worth a place at 9/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK).

     

    Brightening Up

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    2:20 – Jewson H’cap Chase (Premier) – Cloudy Glen @ 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    A proper stayer’s race deserves a proper stayer. And whenever I see those colours of the late Trevor Hemmings, my eyes light up. Cloudy Glen unseated at the first in the Grand National, so scratch that race and focus on his previous performances.

    He’s been off a tough mark for a while and is down to a more workable mark of 142. His record in November reads 14113, so it’s clear that this is the time to catch him is now.

    Wayfinder is one of those horses I enjoy watching. He was a Chepstow regular but has switched to try and become a Cheltenham regular. He’s versatile on all grounds and performed admirably on racecourse reappearance at the Showcase meeting. 14/1 (General) is not a bad price.

    Dom Of Mary makes appeal on the soft ground, with his last win coming on heavy ground. He ran well in his previous two starts, considering the ground wasn’t to his liking.

    Remaining on the same mark of 118 with five pounds taken off makes appeal at 16/1 (General). Needs to be up to a career best to win at a track he’s never been at before.

     

    Oh Jonny Boy

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    2:55 – Shloer Chase (Grade Two) – Jonbon @ 8/13 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Jonbon is by a far and away the best in, what is, a high-class renewal of the race. Despite there being four runners, all are top graded winners.

    Edwardstone looks to be going over further. Nube Negra is looking to win the race for a third time (and looks like his only opportunity this season) and Editeur Du Gite looks overpriced after an inexplainable race at Exeter last time out.

    Reverse Forecast on Jonbon and Editeur Du Gite might be the angle to go with for this race.

     

    As Cold As Ice-cream

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    3:30 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Knickerbockerglory @ 11/1 (Unibet, BetUK)

    The case for Knickerbockerglory is an interesting. He carries a penalty, which is immediately taken off by Tristan Durrell. But he is two pounds well in on his mark, and the only one who is in the field. A difference like that can change everything in a handicap of this nature. The five-pound rise seems fair, but soft ground is once again in his favour and can deliver another big performance.

    In what has been a successful week for Sir Alex Ferguson, Sonigino has another crack at the Greatwood. Last year, it was ran on good ground and missed out two flights which didn’t make it a true test.

    This year it’s the complete reverse. Soft ground will provide a stern jumping test, which Sonigino will relish, and Freddie Gingell’s allowance brings his mark to within a pound of his last winning mark. Maybe a little too high in the market, but still worth backing at 11/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

    Punctuation is another I fancy, and one I had a good look at York on reappearance on the flat. He loves to be held up, especially with the soft conditions to catch the keen going ones who prefer it firmer. He’s only two pounds higher than Knickerbockerglory, which means he can’t be that far away from his rival on the run to the line. A good each-way shot at 14/1 (Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: An Unexpected Twist? – November Meeting Day 2

    Four To Follow: An Unexpected Twist? – November Meeting Day 2

    What a way to get started to the November meeting Cheltenham. An unexpected winner in Minella Missile (tipped up here) and Triple Trade making some money for the column. However, Saturday is the big day. The Paddy Power Gold Cup takes centre stage, plus a multitude of handicaps to get stuck into. This week’s Four To Follow is…

     

    Not A Big Risk

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    1:45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Good Risk At All @ 15/8 (BetVictor)

    Sam Thomas is one of the emerging target trainers, meaning he targets certain races well. And with Good Risk At All he has placed him in good company. Some may argue that he got lucky at Carlisle when Giovinco fell. But I beg to differ. He was more stronger going to the line, with plenty in hand. I can’t trust Mister Coffey, not with his last win coming in 2019.

    Alaphilippe is one to consider for the place, or w/o, market. His record at Cheltenham is not half bad, despite his runs being on the new course. But a tighter track may suit going over stiffer fences, and 13/2 (William Hill) is something I can’t leave alone.

     

    You’re Invited!

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    2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup – Unexpected Party @ 11/2 (Unibet, Boylesports, BetUK)

    As soon as Dan Skelton announced he had this race in mind for Unexpected Party after his victory at Chepstow last month, I had to have him. I had a rare antepost bet with Unexpected Party as soon he beat Knappers Hill, who was a class act last week at Wincanton. His record on similar surfaces is perfect and has competed on the Old Course coming second. I hope the form and conditions play into his favour.

    A second selection is Easy As That. As soon as I saw what price he was during the week, I thought to back it. Now I look at his price, I regret it. But I will still back him at an each-way price. His reappearance record is astonishing; 1124211. With four wins and two places, who am I to argue against a Venetia Williams horse first time out at 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    And I have to give a mention to Il Ridoto. He is a regular over this C&D, or is since last season, and it’s his bread and butter. With Harry Cobden jocked aboard Stage Star, the exciting Freddie Gingell gets the call up for Chris Giles’ horse. With seven pounds taken off him, he falls to under a pound of his last winning mark which was here on Trials Day. 10/1 (Unibet) is a really attractive price.

     

    Spring In Autumn

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    3:30 – Intermediate H’cap Hurdle – Springwell Bay @ 2/1 (General)

    There’s a question why Springwell Bay has been dropped three pounds for finishing mid division in a Grade One. He’s back to a winning mark as a novice, on ground which he relishes, with a trainer who is in decent form. Jonjo O’Neill will want to leave with a winner at this meeting and this is possibly his best chance.

    Londonofficecallin looks like he has gotten off lightly by the British handicapper. Rated the lowest weighted in the field, yet raised 16lbds, he has been on the upgrade all Summer for Emmet McNamara. Despite being three pounds out of the handicap, he’s still bottom weight and has place value at 11/2 (General)

     

    How Easy?

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    4:05 -Mares’ Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) – Easy Peasy @ 11/2 (General)

    I can’t believe that Willie’s in the bumper is favourite for this race. If we are going on what happened at the October meeting, this Mullins flat horse has just been sent over for some sort of practise and won’t be seen at the Festival. Easy Peasy has won both of her starts by a combined margin of five-and-a-half-lengths and can adapt to more tacky conditions to give de Boinville and Henderson a back-to-back Lucky Last.

    Although, we’ll be on the karaoke if Disco Daisy wins the bumper. She’s got good value, especially when three horses she has beat have been placed in future runs. With Minella Missile using Chepstow to her advantage, could we see Emma Lavelle training a similar type for the future? 10/1 (William Hill, 888Sport) is a price I can get involved in.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Aye Aye Captain – November Meeting Day One

    Four To Follow: Aye Aye Captain – November Meeting Day One

    The first highlight of the Winter months, the November meeting at Cheltenham is always a great watch. Three days of unrivalled action on the toughest testing ground. The first day sees some intriguing novice action to keep an eye on for the season ahead, plus the Cross-Country track is in action for the first time this season. Here’s a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Talk of the Trade

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    1:45 – Mucking Brilliant H’cap Chase – Triple Trade @ 9/2 (General)

    The ground is always key to betting, and Cheltenham, as of writing, has changed its ground from soft to good-to-soft after being forecast rain but no sign of any. This makes it an, almost, level playing field for everyone involved.

    And Triple Trade stands out. An incredibly progressive horse, he hasn’t finished outside the top two since the 2022 EBF Final, although unseated at Kempton last year. The consistency this horse has is brilliant and has only been raised a pound for finishing second at the October meeting last time out. Joe Tizzard has hit some good form, and his horses are well worth backing.

    Despite only having one winner at this meeting last season, Dan Skelton loves this meeting and is often a litmus test for his season ahead. Walk In Clover is also rather progressive and has the ability to compete at this level.

    She fell when at the rear of four last time out at Cheltenham, although she wouldn’t have been beaten too far. Her mark is attractive, particularly with a five-pound claim and can produce a clean run today. 11/1 (General) is worth a small poke.

     

    The Obvious One

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    2:20 – Arkle Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – JPR One @ 6/4 (General)

    This race shows how weak this division is in the UK. Safe to say none of these will win the Arkle. A disappointing turnout makes the appeal for JPR One all the more enticing. A good winner of three on heavy ground at Newton Abbot, he’s acted of better ground and is capable of further improvement.

     

    Diesel Downing Delta

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    2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross County H’cap Chase – Diesel D’Allier @ 8/1 (General)

    Despite the appeal of the two Gordon Elliott horses, Diesel D’Allier will have been aimed at this race too. His mark is appealing, two pounds under his last win in December 2021. His best performances have come on better ground and he has every right to cause a mini upset.

    Francky Du Berlais ran a cracker race barring the last fence at the Festival. His form looks inconsistent, but he’s back down to a mark close to his last winning one. His mark of 135 produced a good fourth in a Topham chase and this can be the cup final for the 10-year-old. 16/1 (General) is worth having against the two favourites.

     

    Captain My Captain

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    3:30 – Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Captain Teague @ 4/6 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Paul Nicholls is extremely excited about this novice. And why shouldn’t he be? We were all excited about Hermes Allen last season at this time last season too and could go down the well-trodden path with Captain Teague. First time out in a novice hurdle was also a Grade Two, which shows the talent he possesses at such a young level.

    Minella Missile also excites me at a big price for Evan Williams. Another Chepstow graduate, he beat fellow Nicholls’ favourite Don’t Tell Su. He’s a half-brother to Monbeg Genius who has turned out to be a really useful chaser and is up for improvement against the top-class Captain Teague. At 12/1 (General) he’s worth an eachway shot, or on the place and w/o fav markets.

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    It’s always a good weekend when Prestbury Park is alive with action, especially when the headline event is the Cheltenham November Meeting.

    With the Paddy Power Gold Cup as the star act on Saturday, Friday is a nice introduction for a good weekend and I have three fancies for the action on ITV and Racing TV.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Ballybreeze @ 5/1 General – 2pt EW

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    The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (great name) looks like a fascinating race over two miles with Calico, the 4/1 favourite, bringing form with Jonbon to the table while Triple Trade is progressing at a good rate of knots for Joe Tizzard.

    Away from these two, Ballybreeze is a horse I’ve wanted to see for a while and he finally gets his opportunity in the shadows of Cleeve Hill.

    The seven-year-old by Schiaparelli raced just three times last season and kicked off his campaign with a facile success at Chepstow after a 218-day break.

    Following a 139-day break, connections sent Ballybreeze to the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival at 150/1.

    Although he was last home, Samual Drinkwater’s £8,000 purchase travelled at Grade 1 pace for a while – unlike Hollow Games – before fading.

    Following his Grade 1 test, Ballybreeze went to Market Rasen and looked like the winner before over-jumping the third last and falling.

    With a good summer on his back, he looks very well-handicapped off 120 and with his ability to perform well fresh, he looks like a standout bet at 11/2.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Captain Teague @ 4/6 General – 4pt Win

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    This isn’t a revolutionary or unique pick, but due to the lack of betting angles in the other races, Captain Teague makes the list as a good bet on Friday.

    The five-year-old by Doyen has a lot to like coming into the Grade 2 Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle, notably the fact he won the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle on his debut over obstacles.

    Although he looked to guess at a few hurdles, his jumping improved throughout the contest and that run was his first piece of schooling on grass due to the quick ground back in Ditcheat.

    Therefore, he will hopefully show a better level of consistency at Cheltenham and, in turn, an even higher standard of performance.

    Furthermore, the form of his third in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper continues to get better as the fourth, fifth, ninth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth have all won impressively since.

    If you are looking to take a risk for some potential value, I think Kinbara is a nice horse for John McConnell and the 4/1 straight forecast could be an interesting play, but as for the sole selection, hopefully Captain Teague can show his class.

     

    4:05 Cheltenham – Impose Toi @ 3/1 @ William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Nicky Henderson could be on for a good weekend with his JP McManus-owned horses if both Jonbon in the Shloer Chase and Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle oblige willingly.

    However, looking at the more immediate future, the trainer-owner partnership has a good chance to kick the weekend off well with Impose Toi in the finale on Friday.

    The five-year-old gelding is making his handicap debut having bolted up in a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Ludlow in May while carrying a penalty.

    That win came after an average run at Huntingdon behind Brentford Hope, though the form has worked out as Brentford Hope skated in at Newbury by 15 lengths on his seasonal reappearance last week.

    Although Impose Toi has 11-12 to carry around Prestbury Park, he is unexposed and has good form on soft ground due to his two victories in France for Daniela Mele.

    This could be a tough task on his handicap debut, but I think he could be too classy and I’m willing to take that chance at 3/1.

  • Badger Beer Chase | Fantastic day for Sam – The Top Three

    Badger Beer Chase | Fantastic day for Sam – The Top Three

    Today is a monster day for racing with the Badger Beer Chase highlighting Wincanton in the UK and the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase drawing attention at Down Royal in Northern Ireland.

    The standard for this weekly series is for three selections from three races, however, there is a change today.

    Two horses are top of my list for the Badger Beer Chase, and I don’t want to leave either out, so I’ll split the stakes and include them both.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    12:40 Wincanton – Meatloaf @ 1/1 with BetVictor – 3pt Win

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    Since 2013, Paul Nicholls has won seven renewals of the EBF Stallions “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle and Meatloaf could provide number eight for the Ditcheat-based yard.

    The four-year-old by Doctor Dino was highly tried in bumpers last season, winning two and finishing second in one.

    Looking at his two bumper victories, the first occurred at Wincanton with an impressive two-and-three-quarter length success, a race that saw both the second and fourth win their respective maiden hurdles this season.

    The second success was on his final start of last season back at the same track when he beat Classic King by one-and-a-half lengths, a horse who bolted up by 10 lengths in a Wincanton maiden hurdle last month.

    Today’s soft ground should suit well and having finished ahead of Dancing In Brazil, one of today’s rivals, at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, today looks like a perfect start to his hurdling career..

     

    2:25 Wincanton – Ballygrifincottage @ 18/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    Coming into the Badger Beer, only two horses have had a run this season and those happen to be Courtland and Ballygrifincottage.

    With the former being a horse with an unappealing profile for a test like this, I’m happy to leave him and side with the latter instead.

    Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old has experienced just three spins over fences under rules so far in his career, one of which was a facile 11-length success on soft ground at Haydock in a good time.

    Because of this impressive debut, he went off a well-backed 4/5 on his second start over fences in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby, a race won by the now 142-rated City Chief.

    Despite his price, he disappointed and pulled up after the 15th, though a post-race vet examination revealed he had bled from the nose.

    Another pulled-up effort over hurdles finished his season on a downer, a stark difference from one year prior having concluded his 2021-22 campaign with a good fourth in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

    Skelton has made it no secret this season that plenty of his horses will come on for their opening run of the campaign, something that should occur for Ballygrifincottage after his acceptable reappearance at Newton Abbot in October.

    Off a mark of just 140, he should be well-handicapped based on how highly regarded he is within Lodge Hill and with the cheekpieces applied on his second start after a wind-op, all things seem to suggest that today has been a long-term plan.

     

    2:25 Wincanton – Sam Brown @ 8/1 General – 1pt Win

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    Although Ballygrifincottage is an interesting big-priced contender, there is no getting away from the attractive nature of Sam Brown in a race like this off a workable mark of 152.

    As we saw with Frodon last year, high-rated horses can win staying handicap chases like this and it looks as if Anthony Honeyball’s 11-year-old could be well-handicapped on old form.

    13 months ago, the gelding by Black Sam Bellamy finished a brilliant third in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase to Bravemansgame, a subsequent Gold Cup runner-up, on his first run of the season.

    Following that run, connections fancied him to win the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase on his next start (according to Honeyball when I spoke to him at the Punchestown Festival) but he disappointed in a time where the yard was slightly out of form.

    Fast-forward to the Punchestown Festival in April, he had a starting price of 9/1 for the Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase and looked like the winner before his fall at the second-last fence.

    Up just two pounds for that effort, he could be dangerous off 152 if he is fully up for the task on his seasonal debut and at 8/1, I’m willing to take the chance that he is as a win-only proposition.

     

    2:45 Aintree – Fantastic Lady @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Listeners of the Only Fools Love Horses Twitter Space on Sunday or YouTube video on Wednesday will know that Fantastic Lady is a horse I’ve had pencilled in for the Grand Sefton for a few weeks.

    The eight-year-old mare has shown a good level of improvement since her first victory over fences at Warwick in January 2022 over two-and-a-half miles.

    This steady rise through the handicap saw her pitched into the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase two starts later when third behind Pic D’Orhy – now rated 162 – and the subsequent Grade 1-winning Millers Bank.

    Last season continued on the same trajectory as she bolted up over three miles to beat Zambella before a good second over the Grand National fences in the Topham in April and a promising third behind Hewick in the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase.

    Although she received weight on her last start, getting to within eight lengths of Hewick, a horse who ran very well in the Gold Cup before falling, is good form and even the second, First Flow, franked the form thanks to his second in the Byre Group Handicap Chase last week.

    This year’s Grand Sefton has apparently been the plan for a while and with trainer Nicky Henderson thinking of Grand National glory later down the line, a win today would start off Fantastic Lady’s season in a good way.

  • Four To Follow: Cheers To The Beers

    Four To Follow: Cheers To The Beers

    It’s Badger Beers Day at Wincanton, which is always a great handicap to watch early in the season. There’s a strong contingent from the Paul Nicholls’ stable at his local track to look out for. A bit further up North, we’ve action over the National fences at Aintree and the rescheduled November handicap at Newcastle.

     

    Wincanton

    The Old Ones Are Best

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    2:25 – 62nd Badger Beers Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Frodon @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    Frodon performed so well in the Badger Beers last year, you feel as though this is the best opportunity to get a win this season. The 12-Y-O is possibly one of the most loved horses in racing and it will be sad when he leaves the scene. For today, he’s back on the same wining mark as he was last year and can go on any ground at all. I think Nicholls’ other runner, Threeunderthrufive, will be aiming for bigger prizes later this season.

    Blackjack Magic was an very progressive chaser last season, and goes well fresh too. He won’t want the ground drying out too much, as he is a mud lover. But I think we’ll be seeing much more of Blackjack Magic in these types of races this season and is certainly interesting at 9/1 (BetUK)

    Ballygriffincottage was on my radar at the start of last season, but things went awry, and we never saw him at his best. His jumping wasn’t great on seasonal reappearance at Newton Abbot and needs to rediscover his form from Haydock this time last year. He’s off the same mark as that win and can give a good account of himself if he jumps well. 16/1 (William Hill) is a fair price.

     

    Maybe Not Nicholls

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    2:25 – Elite Hurdle (Grade Two) – Hansard @ 7/4 (William Hill, Betfred)

    This isn’t a Grade Two by any standards. With four runners, and two of them far clear of the other pair. It’s a match with Rubaud, who shaped well at Kempton last time out. But Hansard is a talented individual as well, and has beaten good-looking chaser Master Chewy over timber. He won’t mind the conditions, and can reverse the form from the Dovecote in February.

     

    Aintree

    Banging The Drum

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    2:45 – Boylesports Grand Sefton H’cap Chase – Percussion @ 8/1 (BetUK)

    This race is for the mud lovers, as the National course passed a 9AM inspection yesterday. Percussion is 1/1 on heavy ground, in a bizarre finish at Fontwell (Well worth a watch). Percussion also has the added advantage of competing over the National fences, finishing third in this race last year and the Becher Chase. He’s on a lower mark than both of those races and can be up there at the elbow.

    Frero Banbou is another that catches the eye. Despite not competing over the National fences, and only once over two-and-a-half miles, he looks the sort that could relish the conditions. Venetia Williams is hitting a purple patch of form, and she has one that can perform on the conditions. Similar price to the main selection, 9/1 (General)

     

    Newcastle

    A Wily Choice

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    3:45 – November Handicap – Teumessias Fox @ 6/1 (General)

    Teumessias Fox has a great record on the All-weather; two wins and two thirds. So, it’s safe to say he’ll be up there. He comes in the race fresh and has Callum Hutchinson claiming a crucial three pounds, which brings him down to the level he was in the Spring. Top weight won’t be much of a problem and can land the last big prize handicap of the flat.

    Chillingham for Ed Bethell is another runner I find interesting for this contest. He both finished and started his seasons with wins in 22/23 and could do the same here. His form on soft ground will suit the tapeta and is only a pound higher than a narrow loss at Ripon in July. Off a break, he’s another that could go well on the Tapeta; one race, one third. 13/2 (General) is a price to be had.

    Further down the market, Struth makes a bit of appeal. An established front-runner, he may face problems up the run-in. He’s down to a likeable mark, at which he was headed off the line at Ascot in August. If he runs a hot race, he may be hard to peg back. Unexposed on AW. 18/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Breeders Cup Day 2 History books await for Caravel

    Breeders Cup Day 2 History books await for Caravel

    It’s time for the highly-anticipated second night of the Breeders’ Cup after the fireworks of yesterday.

    The British and Irish charge proved to be deadly yesterday, though my three selections for tonight’s action come from three different continents.

     

    7:10 Santa Anita – Warm Heart @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Warm Heart has been my long-term fancy, alongside many others on Racing X, for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and with the race just a few minutes away, there’s no chance I can ditch her now.

    The challenge of Inspiral, who just shades favouritism, will be a difficult task, though both horses are running over a different distance to their usual trip.

    John & Thady Gosden’s four-year-old tackles 10 furlongs for the first time in her career and a quick scan at her pedigree shows that Celestran, a Dansili half-brother to Inspiral, won over 10 furlongs and even tackled 12 furlongs during his career, so she might be okay with the step up in trip.

    As for Warm Heart, she has a 100% record at 10 furlongs including a victory in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury earlier this year, suggesting the step down in distance is nothing to worry about.

    Furthermore, master trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race last year with Tuesday, a similar-type horse who had her best form over 12 furlongs before her Breeders’ Cup victory.

    On form, her victories over Sea Silk Road, a future Group 1 Prix de Royallieu winner, Lumiere Rock, a future Group 1 Prix de l’Opera third, and Bluestocking, a subsequent Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes runner-up, all read nicely.

    Although State Occasion did initially pique my interest – and at 40/1, I wouldn’t put you off backing her – due to her progressive profile, Warm Heart is now hampered by the penalty of having my money onboard as she is my main hope.

     

    8:30 Santa Anita – Songline @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The Breeder’s Cup Mile doesn’t look like a race brimming with class, so the one who could be too good is Songline representing Japan.

    The three-time Grade 1 winner is a proven quick ground horse and comes into tonight’s £1.5 million contest with the benefit of a nice break between the start of June and the start of October.

    Toru Hayashi’s five-year-old got back into the swing of things in the Grade 2 Mainichi Okan in early October over nine furlongs, a race that saw her positioned on the outside for the majority of the contest before her interrupted charge towards the line.

    Once a gap opened up, she stormed on but couldn’t get past Elton Barows who had a facile route on the nearside rail.

    Although she has stall 10 today, she showed good gate speed during her victory from a wide draw in the Group 1 Yasuda Kinen and if she does the same today, Songline could negate her outside draw.

     

    11:25 Santa Anita – Caravel @ 6/1 with William Hill – 2pt EW

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    Two horses, Mizdirection and Stormy Liberal, have won back-to-back Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprints since 2012 and Caravel is looking to do the same this year.

    The six-year-old sprung a surprise in last year’s renewal to beat Emaraaty Ana, Creative Force, and Highfield Princess at odds of 43/1; that form is very hot and she had a tough stall in 10 to navigate that day.

    Since then, the Mizzen Mast mare won three in a row until her defeat in the Grade 3 Troy Stakes on soft ground in August and afterwards, connections gave her a break until a good second in the Grade 2 Franklin Stakes 20 days ago.

    That run should have the Brad Cox-trained contender spot on for today’s target and from stall three, she could leave this field in her dust.

  • Charlie Hall Chase 2023 | Thyme to win for Hill

    Charlie Hall Chase 2023 | Thyme to win for Hill

    The Breeders’ Cup kicked off a good weekend of racing action last night and before they regain the baton later today, eyes will turn to Charlie Hall Chase Day at Wetherby alongside an intriguing card at Ascot.

    There are a few horses that I want to be on the side of today, so let’s dive straight in.

     

    1:15 Wetherby – Eaton Collina @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    For anyone who watched the latest Only Fools Love Horses video, you may have a nice ante-post docket for Eaton Collina at 10/1 who is now a few points shorter.

    Kerry Lee’s eight-year-old won twice as a novice chaser in early 2023, one of which was a 20-length demolition at Ascot in April and the other occurred at Chepstow in February; he beat Triple Trade, Joe Tizzard’s progressive seven-year-old that has improved 16 pounds since the run, on latter of those victories, so the form looks good.

    Although he was beaten on seasonal reappearance in 2022 and 2021, Lee has had her horses fit and firing for their first runs this season, notably with Nemean Lion in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and Kraqueline at Wincanton on October 29th.

    If this is the case, Eaton Collina looks like a typical improving type and hopefully, his mark of 118 is still workable.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Saint Segal @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The first of my selections from Ascot comes in a competitive contest over two miles, and after much deliberation, Saint Segal is the one that I’ve fallen on.

    Firstly, I appreciate the notion that horses trained by Jane Williams tend to come on for their first run of the season – as shown with this horse last season – but the market is positive for his chances and he’s had plenty of time to get ready for today.

    The five-year-old by Saint Des Saints relished fences last season with two wins and a staying-on second to his name.

    His Hereford success in early January took place on soft ground, suggesting today’s conditions will suit him well, and he even put up a good performance on quick ground at Doncaster 23 days later, showing he has a big engine.

    Reading comments from Williams in James Stevens’ 2023/24 Horses To Follow (South West Edition), connections love this horse at home and a rating of 137 looks lenient.

    With a few in here potentially at the top of their handicap mark or with bigger targets down the line, today could be the day to catch Saint Segal on his first run after a wind-op.

     

    2:25 Wetherby – Thyme Hill @ 2/1 with Betvictor – 2pt Win

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    The Grade 2 bet365 Hurdle has just six options to pick from this year, and the favourite Thyme Hill looks like the obvious one for a good reason.

    Although last season didn’t go to plan over fences, the nine-year-old still retained his ability on the track when bolting up at Exeter on his chasing debut before his commanding display in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day.

    His two losses over fences came when the ground was too quick at Newbury in November and when never firing during the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham.

    Today, he comes into the race on the back of a 189-day break, something he’s not averse to doing as he won on seasonal reappearance in 2022, 2020, and 2019 as well as his win in the 2021 Grade 1 Ryanair Stayers Hurdle at Aintree following a 112-day break.

    With his good record on soft and heavy ground – as shown by his second to Paisley Park in the 2020 Long Walk Hurdle on heavy and second to Flooring Porter in the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle on soft – a lot is seemingly in his favour today.

     

    2:40 Ascot – Ten Lengths Tom @ 5/1 General – 1pt EW

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    Betting in novice hurdles in October is risky business at the best of times, let alone when the ground is testing, but there’s plenty to like about the profile of Ten Lengths Tom for the Tom Lacey yard.

    The four-year-old ran in two bumpers last season, the first of which occurred at Sandown when sandwiched by a pair of Paul Nicholls runners on good to soft ground.

    The exciting Inthewaterside won the race, a horse who won on hurdling debut at Aintree earlier this week, with the well-regarded Wrappedupinmay eight lengths behind in third.

    The Mount Nelson gelding then went to Warwick for his next start and bolted up by five-and-a-half lengths having travelled cooly into the race under Stan Sheppard before he was asked to quicken away with just over a furlong ago.

    He showed an impressive turn of foot over two miles that day in what was deplorable conditions at Warwick, suggesting today’s deep ground at Ascot should cause no issues.

    The two horses ahead of him in the market – Jango Baie and Tellherthename – come from the point-to-point scene, so with the chance that both of them may need further in time after today’s hurdling debut, Ten Lengths Tom looks like a solid contender.

     

    3:15 Ascot – Altobelli @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The form of Harry Fry’s yard over the last few weeks makes for tough reading, though that can hopefully change with Altobelli in the 3:15 at Ascot.

    The five-year-old by Maxios was well-spoken of by connections last season as a novice hurdler to follow and his 25-length victory at Carlisle certainly showed his booming ability.

    Things didn’t go his way when sent to the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April, though I’m happy to forgive him as it was his first outing in a Grade 1 on ever-quickening Aintree ground.

    Although Fry may have one eye on the Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle over course and distance in December, his form of beating Uncle Bert (a two-time hurdles winner since) and Ginny’s Destiny (rated 135 over hurdles) last season is hard to ignore.

    Connections think Altobelli is a Graded horse in the making, so off his current mark of 131 in conditions that should suit, hopefully he is bang on to take home this £60,000 contest.

  • Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    Four To Follow: Don’t Play The Game + Breeders’ Cup Tip

    It’s action from the North, the South and across the Atlantic this weekend as the Breeders’ Cup takes place in Santa Anita. A little further North, back home, it’s Charlie Hall Day at Wetherby with Bravemansgame making his reappearance alongside Ahoy Senor. Ascot also has a good handicap card to get stuck into too. A intriguing weekend for Four To Follow.

     

    Wetherby

    The Girls are alright with me

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    1:50 – Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) – Kateira @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    Kateira is still new to hurdles but is no longer a novice and comes into a tricky race, after finishing runner-up in a Grade One last April. But she loves to race fresh, with figures after a 50+ break reading 5112. She’s constantly on the upgrade and will love the soft ground up at Wetherby. Expect more progression from this horse throughout the season.

    Stainsby Girl represents the value in the race for me. An established front-runner, it’s her first foray into level weights. And she comes in with one of the highest marks in the field at 138, she’s not one to be dismissed. She’s a mud-lover and could be hard to peg back if she’s given some racing room in front. 7/1 (General) is a nice price.

     

    Drashing through the mud

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    2:25 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Dashel Drasher @ 9/4 (Betfred)

    Another tricky contest, but I’m surprised the 10-year-old isn’t favourite for the race. He has a consistent reappearance record, never finishing outside the top three, and loves soft ground. Thyme Hill is the one to oppose and comes back to hurdling after a season over fences didn’t work out.

    Dashel Drasher was ultra consistent last season, with four seconds, including narrowly losing to Sire Du Berlais in the stayers. I expect him to be favourite at the off.

     

    Ascot

    Mucho macho man

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    3:45 – Sodexo Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Mucho Mas @ 6/1 (General)

    Mucho Mas a progressive chaser for Ben Pauling having competed at the levels below Premier chases last season. But he was entered for the Sandown Gold Cup but was scratched due to the ground. This may be a big ask, but the ground is a big plus for him. A four-pound rise looks lenient given the missed end of season targets and can run a big race. He’s certain to feature in similar events throughout the season, nonetheless.

    A former winner of the race also puts forward an intriguing case. Larry won the 2021 edition off a mark of 132. This year it’s only 135 on soft ground. He also loves Ascot at this time of year with two wins over C&D in the last two years. Ground won’t be a problem, and can break the Moore’s poor run of form at 11/1 (General).

     

    Breeders’ Cup

    Rodin’ the wave

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    Santa Anita 9:50 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade One) – Auguste Rodin @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    It’s the race that he has been preparing for all season. His avoidance of a tilt at the Arc and the Champion Stakes made sure that this would be his destination. Auguste Rodin is ready to be the star of Tinseltown. It was a gutsy, yet impressive, win in the Irish Champion which puts him at the head of the market.

    King Of Steel was the big impresser at Ascot, but just how much did that race take out of him for him to be running two weeks later?

    Mostahdaf has the US media talking on his final start, but his best form comes over 10 furlongs. Can making it a fairytale end to his career?

    I think the dual Derby and Irish Champion has the race to lose, and add to Ballydoyle’s excellent Breeders’ Cup success.

    War Like Goddess is a peach of a price at 14/1 (William Hill), after finishing third in the contest last year. She won a Grade One at Belmont in some style to prep herself for her tilt to go two better this year.

     

    The very best of luck!