Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

Newbury Lockinge Day

The Top Three is back in profit!

Following the success of Random Harvest at 10/3 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes – who was 8/1 when highlighted on last week’s Ante-post Analysis column – and Baradar at 7/1 (with an SP of 16/1) in the International Stakes, the P&L is in profit of 0.435 after taking into account My Prospero’s loss.

So, with the wind in our sails, here are my bets for Glorious Goodwood Day 1.

 

3:25 Goodwood – Iberian @ 13/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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The first fancy of the day comes in the opening Group race at Glorious Goodwood and it is IBERIAN under champion jockey William Buick that has grabbed my interest.

Two-year-old contests at this time of the year can be tough to work out due to experienced juveniles meeting unexposed rivals who could be anything, and in today’s Vintage Stakes, the once-raced Lope De Vega colt is the one I’m siding with.

Having won impressively at Newbury last time out, only two of the 12 rivals behind him that day have come out and won since, something that is a worrying statistic, however, the manner in which he powered away from the field should still hold merit.

Furthermore, although he was a non-runner on the weekend due to unsuitable ground, I wouldn’t be too concerned about slower conditions as Lope De Vega’s are usually ground-versatile and his dam, Bella Estrella, was a winner on yielding as a three-year-old.

In a not-so Vintage Stakes, this 200,000GNS purchase from the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale is well regarded within his yard and holds plenty of interest at a nice price.

 

4:00 Goodwood – Isaac Shelby @ 11/4 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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Directly following the first Group race for two-year-olds is the Lennox Stakes and Brian Meehan’s ISAAC SHELBY is the one I’ll be siding with.

The Night Of Thunder colt has been a consistent type this season thanks to his win on soft ground in the Greenham Stakes first time out, his second in the French Guineas behind Marhaba Ya Sanafi, and fourth in a competitive renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

All three of those runs look to be the best form on display in this contest and the three-year-old will receive a six-pound weight-for-age allowance against his elders which has him best at the weights on official ratings.

Although one would have to respect last year’s runner-up, Kinross, at the top of the market, I’ve been slightly underwhelmed by his runs so far this season and personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing him on a better surface.

Therefore, defending the honour of the three-year-olds, I’m hoping that Isaac Shelby can put in a blinder in the Lennox.

 

5:05 Goodwood – Stormy Sea @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt WIN

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Finally, in the penultimate contest of the day, the well-bred STORMY SEA will carry my money going into the 19-strong fillies’ handicap.

Firstly, the second-favourite, Rowayeh, is one who should be feared as the form of his victory over Mystic Pearl at Sandown last month has been franked with the runner-up winning the Listed Coral Distaff next time out.

However, with the slightly softer ground on the agenda today, I’m preferring to side with the half-sister to Bay Bridge who should handle any give in the ground.

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Firstly, her Group 1-winning relation has his best form on soft ground – as shown by his win in the 2022 Group 1 Champion Stakes – so the official going description of good to soft, good in places, will suit.

Secondly, if you can ignore her run last time out in Listed company, her success on seasonal reappearance at Haydock was visually very impressive and the second, Lmay, has since won a maiden and finished fourth in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

All in all, Stormy Sea has plenty on her side today and on a tough day of punting, she would be the NAP.

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