Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing bets

  • Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle weekend always provides a good level of clues for the Cheltenham Festival as it’s one of the final stops before jump racing’s Olympics.

    Although rain has decimated racing at both Warwick and Uttoxeter, Newbury and Naas are fit to continue and, as such, I have a few fancies to consider.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Emitom @ 9/2 with William Hill Win

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    Despite his age of 10 and the fact he was once rated 155, no one can fault the form that Emitom is in.

    Since joining Alan King’s yard from Warren Greatrex, the Grade 1-placed gelding has improved 10 pounds from one victory and two seconds.

    His success on stable debut at Newbury in March 2023 saw him beat Hyland, a horse who has improved 13 pounds since, and his second to Saint Davy last time out has received a form boost as the winner won the valuable Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown last weekend.

    Up just two pounds for that effort at Ludlow in January, he has a great Newbury record (two wins and one second) and should relish soft conditions.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Our Champ @ 33/1 with William Hill EW

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    At the start of the week, I highlighted Our Champ as an interesting outsider for the Betfair Hurdle, and my opinion of him has failed to change.

    The six-year-old has improved markedly since joining Chris Gordon from Paul Henderson, notably due to his two successes towards the start of the season.

    The final one of the pair occurred at Cheltenham when he danced in under Freddie Gordon – who was claiming three pounds due to the conditions of the race – off a mark of 117.

    Three slightly underwhelming runs since has the Champs Elysees gelding back on a mark of 124, though Freddie Gordon is able to claim five pounds today.

    A return to that Cheltenham form is required, but connections have hopefully sorted out a small wind issue as today is his first run after a wind-op and he is also racing with a tongue tie.

    If he handles the ground, which is a slight unknown, then he can certainly outrun his odds.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Altobelli @ 7/1 with William Hill EW

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    However, although Our Champ deserves a big shout for the Betfair Hurdle, this week’s large quantity of rain means Altobelli is also one to keep onside.

    Unfortunately for Harry Fry and connections, the ground turned to be a bit too quick at Ascot on his last start, yet he ran a belter to finish second to Luccia and Impose Toi, two top-class Nicky Henderson horses.

    The Betfair Exchange Trophy was certainly his season-long plan, so his promising second on seasonal debut was a pleasant surprise.

    Furthermore, ignoring his disappointing effort in a Grade 1 at Aintree, the Maxios gelding is still unexposed and he even beat Ginny’s Destiny in an Exeter bumper which is good form.

    Seven places with William Hill is generous, so a double-pronged attack of him and Our Champ is my angle into the Betfair Hurdle.

     

    3:40 Naas – Riviere D’Etel @ 7/2 with BetVictor Win

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    Anyone who knows a little bit about my cliff horses will appreciate the love I have for Riviere D’etel, so I’m excited to see her back out today.

    She caused a slight surprise – based on the market – to bolt up at Fairyhouse on her last start, though her form with Captain Guinness from the last two renewals of the Fortria Chase puts her in the mix for any high-level mares’ chase.

    Furthermore, although a return to a left-handed track isn’t ideal, she ran well in last year’s Grade 2 Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before falling and she has good form at Leopardstown from her novice chasing season.

    Her jumping to the right is accounted into the price, but her form over two miles puts her right there and both Allegorie De Vassy and Maskada need to answer some questions.

     

    3:50 Newbury – Hometown Boy @ 8/1 with William Hill EW

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    Although his career has had its bumps in the road, there’s a chance that Hometown Boy could make use of his current rating of 135.

    The nine-year-old had 929 days off the track between his Aintree success off 137 over hurdles in April 2021 and his chase debut at Carlisle in October 2023.

    His 22-length defeat may look bad on paper, but he was travelling well at the front of the field before he overreached at the fourth-last.

    Stuart Edmunds and the team have given him plenty of time after his seasonal reappearance which should negate any ‘bounce factor’, and his novice hurdle form when second to McFabulous could make him well-treated off his current mark.

    The ground should be no issue – his half-brother, Walkinthewoods, produced his best form on soft ground – and he even comes from the same family as Simon, John Spearing’s 2007 Racing Post Trophy winner who achieved a peak rating of 152.

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    The Dublin Racing Festival is on our doorstep in what is the final signpost on the road toward the Cheltenham Festival.

    Ireland’s top trainers have prepared their top horses for two top days of entertainment, all kicking off with the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle.

    With Sandown’s Grade 1 card on the same day, here are a few horses to keep onside on Saturday.

    1:20 Leopardstown – Predators Gold @ 13/8 with William Hill

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    In the opener, Predators Gold is a horse I have had on my radar all season and connections have opted to step the five-year-old back up in trip to a more suitable distance.

    After his debut success over hurdles, jockey Paul Townend said he got a feel that made him think he was a Grade 1 horse and that was put to the test on his next start when he finished second to Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

    The conditions that day were attritional, though he dealt with them well and showed that he is a horse who can compete at this level.

    Of his five rivals, none have proven Grade 1 form in the book, though the horse who could improve to outrun his odds is Stellar Story who beat both Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter in the two-mile bumper.

    However, with this uncertainty about the rest, Predators Gold looks like the one who could stamp his mark on the staying novice hurdle division.

    3:00 Leopardstown – Joyeux Machin @ 20/1 with William Hill

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    Paul Nolan’s Joyeux Machin is returning to Leopardstown for the first time since his second to Facile Vega in a bumper back in December 2021, and he could be well treated off 136.

    The seven-year-old has run over fences since the middle of 2023, though he has failed to reach the heights that he promised as a novice hurdler.

    Although returning from fences to hurdles isn’t necessarily positive, his third behind Inthepocket from his debut over hurdles is a nice piece of form and it’s only been six months since he last ran over hurdles.

    His opening success over obstacles saw him finish strongly to beat Viva Devito, a horse who bolted up on his next start in a maiden hurdle, over two miles and he is still unexposed over three miles having won by seven lengths in May 2023 before his second to Minella Crooner over fences.

    He has to put his last race well behind him, but his stint over fences has yet to convince, so a return to hurdles could see him put his best foot forward.

    4:10 Leopardstown – The Folkes Tiara @ 6/1 with Boylesports

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    Although he benefitted from the departure of Path D’Oroux, the way The Folkes Tiara he won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day was very taking.

    He jumped beautifully coming into the home straight and did well to see it out with a few fast-approaching rivals in behind.

    Furthermore, the eight-year-old was second to Final Orders over course and distance before he improved 17 pounds in December 2022 and he was then a good third to Dinoblue – a subsequent Grade 1 winner – in a two-mile handicap at Punchestown.

    He is a nice improver and could continue to go that way off a workable mark.

    4:10 Leopardstown – Grey Diamond @ 18/1 with William Hill

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    Not many horses have moved from Sam Thomas to Gordon Elliott, though Grey Diamond is one who fits that criteria and could hit the frame at a big price.

    The 10-year-old last won off a mark of 135 when bolting up at Haydock in facile fashion, so his mark of 136 – as well as Danny Gilligan’s five-pound claim – puts him on a competitive mark.

    He was given plenty to do from the rear on his first two starts over in Ireland, though his last outing was promising as Jack Kennedy wasn’t asking many questions on the turn for home.

    The Gris De Gris gelding is a good horse on his day, as shown by his third to Amarillo Sky and Fugitif at Cheltenham in November 2022, and he should be a fresh and firing horse on his third run for Elliott. Although this means I am putting up two horses in one race, both are big enough to play each-way.

    British Runners

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    As for the racing over in the UK, three horses look interesting over at Sandown.

    The first comes in the 1:25 at Sandown as Diplomatic Ash looks like a big price at 16/1. The five-year-old is having his handicap debut and showed plenty of promise in novice hurdles behind Walks Like The Man and Idy Wood. A mark of 115 looks lenient and he has a nice pedigree as his mare, Carrigeen Lechuga, is a half-sister to Minella Indo and also achieved a rating of 130 on the track.

    Over an hour later, I think Hermes Allen (11/8) could be too good in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at 2:35. His run in the Kauto Star was good behind Il Est Francais and a drop back to two-and-a-half miles shouldn’t be a worry. He is the Saturday NAP.

    Finally, in the £100,000 handicap hurdle at 3:10, I’m a fan of Transmission at 7/1 for Neil Mulholland. Of course, the recovery of Joe Anderson took all the limelight after his success at Plumpton, but the nature of his overall performance was very good. His maiden hurdle form with Inthepocket and Joyeux Machin suggests 125 is a lenient mark.

  • Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    The last seven days have seen national hunt racing fall victim to the elements, though the final day of the Lingfield Winter Millions meeting should provide a good deal of entertainment.

    Protektorat, L’Homme Presse, and JPR One are horses to be excited about in Britain while a clash between Allaho and Appreciate It would water the mouth of any jumps fan.

    So, let’s get stuck into the action.

     

    Win Bets

    1:15 Lingfield – Master Chewy @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Any loyal followers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel (love you all) might have seen me speak about the Grade 2 Lightening Novices’ Chase at Lingfield and suggest Matata was a “fair enough price” at 8/1.

    At the time, this was a very correct statement, and he is one I think can go well, but at the current prices, my finalised first-choice fancy would go to Master Chewy for the Twiston-Davies team of Sam and Nigel.

    My reason for jumping ship is I took a deeper dive into Master Chewy’s success in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton.

    His overall time was quicker than the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase, won by the 159-rated Editeur Du Gite, and although he carried five fewer pounds (which I’ve taken into consideration), his finishing effort was notably quicker as well.

    His runs this season have shown he can sit handily behind a front-running leader and pounce with speed in the final few furlongs, so with a good pace to aim at thanks to stablemate Matata, Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to have a good hand.

     

    1:50 Lingfield – Saint Segal @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as we love to tune our minds into thinking where certain horses are heading for specific Cheltenham Festival handicaps, sometimes it’s easier to ignore that and stick to focusing on one day at a time.

    With this mentality onboard, Saint Segal is a horse I’m a big fan of and I think he can win a competitive renewal of the Godstone Handicap Chase.

    I believe that the six-year-old would go well in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off his current mark of 139, but today’s contest will be weaker than any Cheltenham handicap and today’s winner receives a healthy cheque for £26,405.

    Therefore, why wouldn’t connections want to go for a race like this, especially with a horse who was in the process of beating Boothill at Ascot last time out before falling at the final flight?

    Unfortunately, the handicapper has given him three pounds for that effort but there is still wiggle room off his current official rating and trainer Jane Williams is operating at a 30% strike rate from her last 10 runners.

     

    2:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    With Cheltenham in mind, it’s interesting that Dan Skelton has given Nurse Susan an entry for both the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle and Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle at this year’s Festival.

    The seven-year-old has good form with Love Envoi since early 2022 and managed to get herself back into the winners’ enclosure at Prestbury Park in December thanks to a gritty performance in a handicap.

    Up just four pounds for the success to 129, she could feasibly still be well-handicapped off that mark and she’s tackling 2m7f for the very first time, something which could see her improve further.

    Skelton and the team have always rated her as a decent animal, so with her rating still at a workable level, hopefully she can continue her progress at Lingfield today.

     

    Each-way Bet

    3:35 Lingfield – Notachance @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    As for the each-way bet today, I’m taking a chance on Notachance off what is a very reasonable mark.

    The 10-year-old hasn’t lived up to his ability since his third in last year’s Warwick Classic Chase, though as such he has dropped 10lbs since to 122.

    He is a proven stayer for Alan King and some of his good performances have received a nice form boost, notably that Classic Chase third as Mr Incredible subsequently finished third in the King Muir and the fourth, Guetapan Collonges, has improved nine pounds since.

    A spark of revival is needed, but his last few heavy defeats haven’t done him justice and he is a tasty-enough price today in order to take a chance.

  • Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    After last weekend’s underwhelming quality of racing, Warwick Classic Chase Day and Graded action from Kempton is a welcome addition to the next few days.

    Da Capo Glory’s success at 4/1 helped the Best Of Bets selections last week, and I’ll be hoping to continue the form today.

     

    Win Bets

    12:40 Warwick – Klitschko @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Starting in the second race at Warwick, I think that Klitschko could be ahead of his mark of 118.

    Today is his second start in a handicap having tried his hand in this company at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance when he probably needed the run.

    The full brother to Henry de Bromhead’s Arctic Bresil looked smart at Plumpton in February to get off the mark, one run after he finished second on soft ground to Jupiter Du Gite at Newbury; both the third and fourth have improved into the mid-120s which has franked the form.

    With the idea that he’ll come on for his last run, Klitschko has the right attributes to land a knockout blow on Warwick Classic Chase Day.

     

    1:49 Warwick – Mel Monroe @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Although Gordon Elliott doesn’t have the greatest record of winning Pertemps Qualifiers, Mel Monroe has the form in the book to change that trend today.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner has finished behind Encanto Bruno, a good horse for Gavin Cromwell, stablemate Croke Park, and Jessica Harrington’s Jetara this season, all three of which are Graded horses.

    Although we don’t know the strength of this year’s novices and how their form translates into open company, one could guess that it is a step above some of the other pieces of form in today’s Pertemps Qualifier.

    Off 132, if Elliott has Pertemps ambitions with this Walk In The Park mare, she would have to go close to winning today in order to ensure her place in the final.

    Furthermore, the step up in trip is something she has been crying out for and soft ground should be no problem.

     

    3:00 Warwick – Malina Girl @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I may have missed the 8/1 ante-post boat with Malina Girl, but her chances are still as good at 3/1 as they were when she was a bigger price.

    Off top weight, the seven-year-old should be well-suited to a staying trip on soft ground based on her Cheltenham form this season.

    The Gavin Cromwell-trained mare bolted up in November off 135 and was in the process of running a mighty race last month before falling at the third-last, though the handicapper was unable to change her mark because of where she fell.

    Following her run in November at the home of jump racing, the Grand National was briefly mentioned by Sean Flanagan, so she is seemingly well-regarded within the stable.

    With Conor Stone-Walsh claiming a valuable five pounds off her back today. Malina Girl is a rightful favourite and one of my favourite horses from this season.

     

    12:55 Kempton – Gentle Slopes @ 13/8 with William Hill – 2pt Win NAP

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    The NAP of the day comes from Kempton as Gentle Slopes should be too good for the opposition in the two-mile novice hurdle.

    Having switched yards to Nicky Henderson, he scored impressively at Cheltenham in November and was talked up as a potential Challow Hurdle horse for previous trainer Milton Harris, though he decided to calm his ambitions and send him back to Cheltenham in December.

    He disappointed there, as he did at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but his bumper form is ahead of his opposition today and sufficient time away from the track – and a new trainer – could feasibly see him back to his best.

    Hopefully, this is the case as connections once thought plenty of him and today’s seasonal reappearance is a winnable race.

     

    3:15 Kempton – Cap Du Mathan @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Completing the win fancies for today is Paul Nicholls’ Cap Du Mathan in the penultimate race at Kempton.

    This season has not been up to scratch thanks to two pulled-up efforts, though his fourth at Ascot over 2m1f is a good piece of form.

    Boothill went on to win another handicap and was in the process of running a good race in the Desert Orchid before falling, First Flow performed brilliantly when second at Chepstow to Quel Destin, and Saint Segal looked like a winner at Ascot on his next start before falling.

    So, in what was a race that was probably too short for him, he ran a cracker.

    Down three pounds since that race, he is just one pound above his last winning mark and Kempton is a track the nine-year-old has previous form around.

    If he can put his last run behind him, today should be an easier test to get back in the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Each-way Bet

    2:42 Kempton – Aucunrisque @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Having thought all season that the Betfair Hurdle is his target, Aucunrisque failed to get an entry for Newbury’s feature handicap hurdle next month.

    Although this is an interesting move from connections, it does suggest that today’s Lanzarote Hurdle has been the long-term target.

    With an official rating of 140, just two pounds above his Betfair Hurdle-winning mark, the eight-year-old has good form with the likes of Jetoile (now rated 150), Boothill, and Datsalrightgino.

    The No Risk At All gelding is, in my eyes, a Graded animal that trainer Chris Gordon has managed to get back down to a workable mark, and today’s step up in trip could feasibly see him improve.

    Gordon was one place away from winning this race in 2022 with Highway One O Two, so I’m sure he would like to go one better this year.

  • New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    What better way to kick off 2024 than some New Year’s Day Racing across the likes of Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, and Tramore?

    As many will know, Cheltenham is a local track of mine and as such, I’ll be attending Monday’s meeting, but horses are running in both the UK and Ireland that I’m keen to keep onside.

    So, for the first column in 2024, here are my full fancies.

     

    Win Bets

    12:30 Tramore – Belle The Lioness @ 4/1

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    Anyone who took note of my pre-Cheltenham Festival chat around the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle will know my love for Belle The Lioness.

    She didn’t live up to my hype when it came to March, but with a summer on her back and race fitness on her side, I’m backing her to return to the winners’ enclosure on her handicap debut.

    The seven-year-old first came onto my radar after her staying-on second to Liberty Dance, a 131-rated mare, at Thurles in December. The Model Kingdom was back in third, who is also rated in the 130s, and she managed to get relatively near Impaire Et Passe on her next start at Punchestown.

    Although she was disappointing at Wexford in November, her run suggests that she either badly needed it or hated the ground. With form on soft to heavy from her bumper victory in April 2022, one would suggest that it was her lack of race fitness that contributed to her defeat.

    Hopefully, Henry de Bromhead has her back because off a mark of 119, I think she could be well-handicapped.

     

    2:10 Exeter – Geezer Rockstar @ 7/4

    Over at Exeter, another horse who I’ve been excited to see this season is Geezer Rockstar and he is set to make his second start over hurdles.

    Harry Fry’s five-year-old was slightly disappointing on hurdles debut at Taunton last-time-out, but I’m not willing to give up on him based on what he showed at Taunton in a bumper in April.

    Furthermore, the opposition at Exeter doesn’t look the strongest; Pentire Head is probably his best rival based on his second to Johnnywho at Taunton in March, but he is still a work in progress and will likely be better next season.

    With this in mind, Geezer Rockstar deserves respect and has plenty of scope to return to the winners’ enclosure.

     

     

    3:50 Cheltenham – La Marquise @ 5/2

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    In the last at Cheltenham, La Marquise impressed immensely on her first start at Stratford in early November.

    Having spoken to Jamie Snowden prior to her first run, he was hoping for a good run though she was always going to come on for her debut outing.

    She certainly did produce a “good run” as the four-year-old by Beaumec De Houelle, a first-season sire who beat Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres in 2018, quickened away nicely on soft ground to win by two lengths. Gavin Sheehan only required one use of the whip at Stratford, so there should be more to come.

    Both the second, Love Tree, and the fifth, Dameofthecotswolds, have won since, so hopefully La Marquise can oblige in receipt of weight from the boys.

     

    Each-way Bets

    1:20 Catterick – Chase A Fortune @ 12/1

    Small fields have made each-way options difficult at Cheltenham, though there’s a chance that Chase A Fortune could be well-handicapped over at Catterick.

    The Chris Grant-trained six-year-old has underperformed in handicap company this season which has been slightly surprising based on his 15-length maiden hurdle success over course and distance in February.

    Looking at his previous form in novice hurdles, the Cannock Chase gelding was racing against eventual 120-rated horses like Chapel Green, Don Hollow, and Astromachia.

    Since then, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 105 and with his previous form on soft ground, today could see him return to his best.

     

    2:40 Cheltenham – My Bobby Dazzler @ 12/1

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    In a race full of questions – namely, if a few improving horses can handle a rise in the weights – it looks as if My Boby Dazzler could do some damage off a handy mark of 119.

    Mel Rowley’s nine-year-old has a fair record around Prestbury Park based on his two fourth-place efforts in the 2021-22 season.

    Although he has promising form on good ground, namely when behind The Changing Man and Young Butler in a valuable handicap at Haydock in April, he bolted up on deplorable ground in December 2021 off a mark of 118.

    Connections tried their hand at fences with My Bobby Dazzler and he did well to win at Worcester in June before a good fourth at Ludlow on his last start, though the Malinas gelding is back over hurdles which should suit him.

    His last few runs have suggested the old spark is still there and if that is the case, today could be a good day to keep the faith.

  • Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Last week we had Cheltenham on our TV screens and seven days later, Long Walk Hurdle Day at Ascot provides us with a pre-Christmas cracker on Saturday.

    Despite a few unlucky results with Malina Girl, Nurse Susan got the column out of trouble in the 90th minute last Saturday, so let’s hope that form can continue.

    Before we kick on, this week’s column looks a little bit different. The first bit will cover shorter-priced ‘win’ propositions that interest me on Saturday while the second half will highlight intriguing each-way plays.

     

    Real chance for Real Stone

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    12:20 Haydock – Doyen Star @ 11/4 with BetVictor

    ITV Racing is showing action from both Haydock and Ascot over the weekend, though before the mainstream cameras turn their attention to the northern track, consideration should be given to Doyen Star in the 12:20 at Haydock.

    At the time of writing, he is the outsider of three at 11/4, though he is officially just one pound behind the market leader, Inedit Star, and he is much more unexposed than Nick Kent’s five-year-old.

    On just his second start over hurdles, the Evan Williams-trained five-year-old beat Crebilly comfortably at Chepstow over two miles; the runner-up won impressively since off 127, ran well twice at Cheltenham this season, and now has an official rating of 139.

    Although he faded in his chasing debut, that was in the Grade 2 “Rising Stars” Novices’ Chase on his first start at two-and-a-half miles, so with race fitness on his side, and returning to two miles, I think he’s overpriced.

    2:05 Haydock – Jagwar @ 15/8 with BetVictor

    Fast-forward to 2:05 and Jagwar looks a cut above the field on his handicap debut at 2/1.

    Although Inthewaterside has failed to frank the form, it was a huge run from the four-year-old over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree as he travelled with plenty of speed but was just outstayed. With an opening mark of 119, he should oblige.

    2:40 Haydock – Real Stone @ 11/8 with William Hill

    Another who should do the same is Real Stone 35 minutes later in the 2:40 at Haydock.

    He was a facile 20-length winner at Haydock in soft conditions last month and despite his eight-pound rise in the weights – which looks lenient – Tristan Durrell takes off a valuable five pounds and he is a strong favourite.

    3:35 Ascot – Altobelli @ 7/2 with William Hill

    Over at Ascot, the Betfair Exchange Trophy has been the season-long plan for Altobelli and following his good reappearance over course and distance, there’s no need to lose faith at 7/2.

    Expectations for his last start in the Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle were average as he was always going to come on for the outing, yet he ran a blinder to finish second and even the third, Bad, has since come out and finished second in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury to frank the form.

    Harry Fry is a master a readying one for a big day and hopefully, that can be the case with this son of Maxios.

     

    Haydock is right for Park

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    12:40 Ascot – Illogical Logic @ 25/1 with William Hill

    Having gone through the cards a few times over, there are a few each-way angles I’ve landed on that could outrun their odds.

    The first comes from Ascot as I’m taking a small chance of Illogical Logic in the opener for Christian Williams at 25/1.

    The five-year-old showed plenty of promise on his last start in what was his first attempt at two-and-a-half miles.

    This run came after two runs over an inadequate trip of two miles, though on all three occasions he travelled prominently yet found himself outpaced.

    Today’s step up to three miles will suit much better and with an opening handicap mark of 107, he has the scope to be better than this mark.

    1:30 Haydock – Dr Kananga @ 12/1 with William Hill

    Moving over to Haydock, an early Christmas present may be coming the way of Ben Clarke in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase as Dr Kananga (12/1) is a well-handicapped horse with suitable conditions.

    The nine-year-old is very honest having had an extended period in the point-to-point and hunter chase scene, though since running in better races, he has bolted up at Sandown off a mark of 125 and finished a good second to Eva’s Oskar at Exeter off 135.

    Last season was disappointing, though connections had the plan of preparing him in a hurdles race before a big handicap chase tilt on two occasions.

    For example, he ran in a novice hurdle at Bangor (when second to Maximilian) before a stab at the Becher Handicap Chase, and he then ran in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle before he ran in the Kim Muir.

    This didn’t work out, but he had wind issues throughout the campaign, so with a wind-op in the bag and now down to a mark of 128, he should go well in heavy ground at Haydock.

    3:15 Haydock – Bushypark @ 11/1 with William Hill

    In the Haydock finale, there’s reason to believe Bushypark could be ready to go close for Philip Kirby at 11/1.

    His first two starts of the season have lacked positivity, though the handicapper has dropped him a helpful six pounds in the handicap to a mark of 115, a full four pounds below his last winning mark.

    Furthermore, Joe Williamson, who has ridden him to success on two occasions, claims a valuable five pounds off his back.

    Although he may be regressing slightly, there’s no denying the fact he is very well-handicapped on all of his old form and his 2/3 around Haydock.

    If he can get an easy lead from the front, he could sail through the soft conditions and be hard to catch.

  • Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    It’s been a tough time to be a Jumps fan recently with abandonments and poor weather sweeping the country, though help is on the way thanks to Tingle Creek Day on Saturday.

    Eight races from Sandown plus a good Aintree card makes this weekend one to enjoy, and that’s before we even think about the return of El Fabiolo in the Hilly Way on Sunday.

    As usual, a few horses are grabbing my attention ahead of the start of play, so let’s talk about them.

     

    1:30 Aintree – Brave Seasca @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The fifth race at Aintree on Saturday could experience a case of Déjà vu as Brave Seasca is looking to win the contest for the second year in a row.

    The eight-year-old won last year’s renewal off a mark of 146 in a comfortable manner on ground that was probably as quick as he would have liked it.

    12 months on, Venetia Williams’ experienced chaser returns to the scene of the crime off a one-pound lower mark thanks to a nice display of leniency from the handicapper.

    Furthermore, he comes into Saturday’s task with the benefit of race fitness on his side after a run in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter where he raced the widest of them all before fading due to a lack of fitness.

    With the yard in a fair level of form at the moment, Brave Seasca is a classy horse and looks well-handicapped on last season’s evidence.

     

    1:50 Sandown – JPR One @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As mentioned on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, JPR One was highlighted as one of my best bets for the weekend at an ante-post stage.

    Not much has changed since I said this as I still believe he is the most likely winner based on what he has shown over fences so far.

    The improving six-year-old won on heavy ground at Newton Abbot to start the season before his promising effort at Cheltenham when he infamously unshipped Brendan Powell after the last fence.

    Although a few people questioned why he was given 11 pounds by the handicapper, a penalty of somewhere in that region is understandable as he would have seemingly bolted up if not for his mistake.

    Furthermore, JPR One has good form from his time over hurdles and even finished a close second to Datsalrightgino, this season’s Coral Gold Cup winner, at Cheltenham in December 2021.

    Although conditions will likely suit Colonel Harry, soft ground should be no issue for JPR One and he deserves his big-race success.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Fontaine Collonges @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    This year’s renewal of the London National is a tight handicap as nine of the top 10 horses in the handicap are within seven pounds of each other.

    So, who looks like the best horse at the top of the handicap? In my eyes, with soft ground on the agenda, Fontaine Collonges is the one I’m keeping onside for an across-the-card Venetia Williams double.

    The eight-year-old progressed nicely last season with three victories on good to soft, soft, and heavy ground.

    The latest of these occurred in November 2022 on her first start of the season where she beat The Big Breakaway at Haydock; Joe Tizzard’s stable star went on to finish second in the Welsh Grand National to frank the form.

    Following an eye-catching fourth to Remastered at Kempton and two poor runs to finish the season, Williams has given her a wind-op over the summer ahead of her seasonal reappearance on Saturday.

    For a horse who clearly goes wells fresh, Ned Fox will take off a valuable five pounds in the saddle to add to her lenient handicap mark of 133, all of which suggests Fontaine Collonges has a great chance to pick up her fifth career success.

  • Coral Gold Cup Meeting Day 1 | Kid’s Time to shine

    Coral Gold Cup Meeting Day 1 | Kid’s Time to shine

    The Coral Gold Cup – or Hennessy for those vintage racing fans – is an event that I enjoy for many reasons. 

    Firstly, the feature contest is usually a competitive betting heat with plenty holding strong claims and secondly, the supporting card on both days is top class. 

    From Graded action to interesting maiden hurdles, novice events to intriguing handicaps, these two days at Newbury have a lot to offer. 

    With this in mind, three horses have caught my attention for Friday’s card at the Berkshire track, so let’s dive in. 

     

    12:40 Newbury – Persian Time @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    Nicky Henderson’s recent strike rate speaks for itself thanks to 11 winners from his last 34 runners, and with Constitution Hill set to give him a nervous few nights of sleep, hopefully, Persian Time can help settle any pre-Fighting Fifth jitters in the 12:40 at Newbury on Friday. 

    Owned by the McNeill and Stone Family, the five-year-old is making his debut over fences on Friday and is the choice of stable jockey Nico de Boinville over the more experienced Russian Ruler. 

    When we last saw Persian Time, he finished second to Paul Nicholls’ Hugos New Horse at Ayr when looking like the winner for the majority of the race. 

    Arguably, hitting the front at the third-last was a bit too soon as the winner passed him late on when A P Heskin’s mount started to fade. 

    Although he didn’t win, the Califet gelding showed great promise having pulled up in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle one month prior. 

    This race, as well as two previous runs, were over two-and-a-half miles, though this drop back to two miles looks like a wise decision as this horse isn’t short of speed and a stiff test around Newbury should play to his strengths. 

    Therefore, if he takes to fences well – which can only be assumed if Henderson is running him in a novice handicap chase on his seasonal reappearance – he should be a big player. 

     

    2:25 Newbury – Kandoo Kid @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win 

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    In a recent Racing Post stable tour, Paul Nicholls said that he hadn’t “scratched the surface” yet with Kandoo Kid who makes his third start over fences in the 2m4f handicap chase. 

    The seven-year-old by Kapgarde has good course and distance form thanks to his second-place effort earlier this month to Galop De Chasse; the pair pulled 32 lengths clear of the third, Our Jet, who won at Kempton on Monday. 

    Looking back on last season, the gallant grey finished a good third to Persian Time at Ascot when giving five pounds away to the winner.

    Before that, he impressively beat Shallwehaveonemore, a horse who won at Sandown by 20 lengths on his next start before his second to Aucunrisque in the 2022 Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle, at Ascot in October 2021. 

    The ever-quickening Newbury ground will be fine having won on good to firm at Taunton on his hurdling debut and with a few of his rivals needing to prove they are well-handicapped to win, Kandoo Kid should be close at the finish. 

     

    3:35 Newbury – Hoe Joly Smoke @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win 

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    Last week, Beat The Bat and Welcome To Cartries put on a good duel at Ascot with the former coming out on top. 

    Prior to this success, Harry Fry’s exciting novice started his season with a second at Chepstow in October behind the impressive Masaccio and this weekend, the third from that contest, Hoe Joly Smoke, is looking to get a first win under rules. 

    Dan Skelton’s point-to-point winner has good form from his novice hurdling season thanks to his second to Makin’yourmindup, a Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle winner in February, at Chepstow in October 2022. 

    The five-year-old then finished second to Doyen Star, an unexposed Evan Williams-trained five-year-old, at the same course three months later.

    Also in that race was Crebilly who crossed the line in second; he has improved 11 pounds since that run and looked a likely winner at Cheltenham over fences earlier this month.

    Furthermore, his experience around Chepstow puts him in good shape for the challenge of Newbury and this step up to three miles is welcomed due to his big galloping nature. 

    As a result, Hoe Joly Smoke looks like a good each-way bet in the lucky last. 

  • Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    It’s always a good weekend when Prestbury Park is alive with action, especially when the headline event is the Cheltenham November Meeting.

    With the Paddy Power Gold Cup as the star act on Saturday, Friday is a nice introduction for a good weekend and I have three fancies for the action on ITV and Racing TV.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Ballybreeze @ 5/1 General – 2pt EW

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    The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (great name) looks like a fascinating race over two miles with Calico, the 4/1 favourite, bringing form with Jonbon to the table while Triple Trade is progressing at a good rate of knots for Joe Tizzard.

    Away from these two, Ballybreeze is a horse I’ve wanted to see for a while and he finally gets his opportunity in the shadows of Cleeve Hill.

    The seven-year-old by Schiaparelli raced just three times last season and kicked off his campaign with a facile success at Chepstow after a 218-day break.

    Following a 139-day break, connections sent Ballybreeze to the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival at 150/1.

    Although he was last home, Samual Drinkwater’s £8,000 purchase travelled at Grade 1 pace for a while – unlike Hollow Games – before fading.

    Following his Grade 1 test, Ballybreeze went to Market Rasen and looked like the winner before over-jumping the third last and falling.

    With a good summer on his back, he looks very well-handicapped off 120 and with his ability to perform well fresh, he looks like a standout bet at 11/2.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Captain Teague @ 4/6 General – 4pt Win

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    This isn’t a revolutionary or unique pick, but due to the lack of betting angles in the other races, Captain Teague makes the list as a good bet on Friday.

    The five-year-old by Doyen has a lot to like coming into the Grade 2 Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle, notably the fact he won the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle on his debut over obstacles.

    Although he looked to guess at a few hurdles, his jumping improved throughout the contest and that run was his first piece of schooling on grass due to the quick ground back in Ditcheat.

    Therefore, he will hopefully show a better level of consistency at Cheltenham and, in turn, an even higher standard of performance.

    Furthermore, the form of his third in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper continues to get better as the fourth, fifth, ninth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth have all won impressively since.

    If you are looking to take a risk for some potential value, I think Kinbara is a nice horse for John McConnell and the 4/1 straight forecast could be an interesting play, but as for the sole selection, hopefully Captain Teague can show his class.

     

    4:05 Cheltenham – Impose Toi @ 3/1 @ William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Nicky Henderson could be on for a good weekend with his JP McManus-owned horses if both Jonbon in the Shloer Chase and Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle oblige willingly.

    However, looking at the more immediate future, the trainer-owner partnership has a good chance to kick the weekend off well with Impose Toi in the finale on Friday.

    The five-year-old gelding is making his handicap debut having bolted up in a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Ludlow in May while carrying a penalty.

    That win came after an average run at Huntingdon behind Brentford Hope, though the form has worked out as Brentford Hope skated in at Newbury by 15 lengths on his seasonal reappearance last week.

    Although Impose Toi has 11-12 to carry around Prestbury Park, he is unexposed and has good form on soft ground due to his two victories in France for Daniela Mele.

    This could be a tough task on his handicap debut, but I think he could be too classy and I’m willing to take that chance at 3/1.

  • Badger Beer Chase | Fantastic day for Sam – The Top Three

    Badger Beer Chase | Fantastic day for Sam – The Top Three

    Today is a monster day for racing with the Badger Beer Chase highlighting Wincanton in the UK and the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Champion Chase drawing attention at Down Royal in Northern Ireland.

    The standard for this weekly series is for three selections from three races, however, there is a change today.

    Two horses are top of my list for the Badger Beer Chase, and I don’t want to leave either out, so I’ll split the stakes and include them both.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    12:40 Wincanton – Meatloaf @ 1/1 with BetVictor – 3pt Win

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    Since 2013, Paul Nicholls has won seven renewals of the EBF Stallions “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle and Meatloaf could provide number eight for the Ditcheat-based yard.

    The four-year-old by Doctor Dino was highly tried in bumpers last season, winning two and finishing second in one.

    Looking at his two bumper victories, the first occurred at Wincanton with an impressive two-and-three-quarter length success, a race that saw both the second and fourth win their respective maiden hurdles this season.

    The second success was on his final start of last season back at the same track when he beat Classic King by one-and-a-half lengths, a horse who bolted up by 10 lengths in a Wincanton maiden hurdle last month.

    Today’s soft ground should suit well and having finished ahead of Dancing In Brazil, one of today’s rivals, at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, today looks like a perfect start to his hurdling career..

     

    2:25 Wincanton – Ballygrifincottage @ 18/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    Coming into the Badger Beer, only two horses have had a run this season and those happen to be Courtland and Ballygrifincottage.

    With the former being a horse with an unappealing profile for a test like this, I’m happy to leave him and side with the latter instead.

    Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old has experienced just three spins over fences under rules so far in his career, one of which was a facile 11-length success on soft ground at Haydock in a good time.

    Because of this impressive debut, he went off a well-backed 4/5 on his second start over fences in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase at Wetherby, a race won by the now 142-rated City Chief.

    Despite his price, he disappointed and pulled up after the 15th, though a post-race vet examination revealed he had bled from the nose.

    Another pulled-up effort over hurdles finished his season on a downer, a stark difference from one year prior having concluded his 2021-22 campaign with a good fourth in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

    Skelton has made it no secret this season that plenty of his horses will come on for their opening run of the campaign, something that should occur for Ballygrifincottage after his acceptable reappearance at Newton Abbot in October.

    Off a mark of just 140, he should be well-handicapped based on how highly regarded he is within Lodge Hill and with the cheekpieces applied on his second start after a wind-op, all things seem to suggest that today has been a long-term plan.

     

    2:25 Wincanton – Sam Brown @ 8/1 General – 1pt Win

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    Although Ballygrifincottage is an interesting big-priced contender, there is no getting away from the attractive nature of Sam Brown in a race like this off a workable mark of 152.

    As we saw with Frodon last year, high-rated horses can win staying handicap chases like this and it looks as if Anthony Honeyball’s 11-year-old could be well-handicapped on old form.

    13 months ago, the gelding by Black Sam Bellamy finished a brilliant third in the Grade 2 Charlie Hall Chase to Bravemansgame, a subsequent Gold Cup runner-up, on his first run of the season.

    Following that run, connections fancied him to win the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase on his next start (according to Honeyball when I spoke to him at the Punchestown Festival) but he disappointed in a time where the yard was slightly out of form.

    Fast-forward to the Punchestown Festival in April, he had a starting price of 9/1 for the Palmerstown House Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase and looked like the winner before his fall at the second-last fence.

    Up just two pounds for that effort, he could be dangerous off 152 if he is fully up for the task on his seasonal debut and at 8/1, I’m willing to take the chance that he is as a win-only proposition.

     

    2:45 Aintree – Fantastic Lady @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Listeners of the Only Fools Love Horses Twitter Space on Sunday or YouTube video on Wednesday will know that Fantastic Lady is a horse I’ve had pencilled in for the Grand Sefton for a few weeks.

    The eight-year-old mare has shown a good level of improvement since her first victory over fences at Warwick in January 2022 over two-and-a-half miles.

    This steady rise through the handicap saw her pitched into the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase two starts later when third behind Pic D’Orhy – now rated 162 – and the subsequent Grade 1-winning Millers Bank.

    Last season continued on the same trajectory as she bolted up over three miles to beat Zambella before a good second over the Grand National fences in the Topham in April and a promising third behind Hewick in the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase.

    Although she received weight on her last start, getting to within eight lengths of Hewick, a horse who ran very well in the Gold Cup before falling, is good form and even the second, First Flow, franked the form thanks to his second in the Byre Group Handicap Chase last week.

    This year’s Grand Sefton has apparently been the plan for a while and with trainer Nicky Henderson thinking of Grand National glory later down the line, a win today would start off Fantastic Lady’s season in a good way.