Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing bets

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    All the waiting is finally behind us as the first day of the York Ebor meeting is here.

    Paddington vs Mostahdaf, competitive handicaps, and the return of Gregory will all be on our TV screens throughout the day, an exciting prospect to look forward to.

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    With last week’s best bet for The Top Three, Arrest in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes, proving to be a successful one, here are my three fancies for day one of the York Ebor meeting.

     

    Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (3:00) – Continuous @ 11/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Group 2 Great Voltigeur has only attracted a field of five to the race, yet it is still a contest I want to bet in and it’s Aidan O’Brien’s sole representative, Continuous, that I’m on the side of at 11/4.

    The Heart’s Cry colt has been an interesting prospect for Ballydoyle since his debut victory over seven furlongs in August 2022 as the prominent team has raced him in France twice already; once when victorious in the Group 3 Prix Thomas Bryon as a two-year-old and the other time when a disappointing eighth in the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club this season.

    However, it’s his two runs over in the UK that appeal the most on form, as he began this season with a promising third in the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York over 1m2f where he travelled well into the race and maintained that momentum through the line.

    Two starts after that, he moved over to Royal Ascot for the Group 2 Queen’s Vase, a race that saw him fall victim to the monster King Of Steel who would subsequently finish third in the Group 1 King George VI Stakes on his next start.

    Both of those performances were promising in defeat and his form behind good horses certainly stacks up.

    Due to Gregory’s three-pound penalty, Continuous is best at the weights on official ratings and thanks to his solidity in form, he gets my vote of confidence.

     

    Class 2 Fillies’ Handicap (4:45) – Designer @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1.5pt EW

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    Although it’s not the most common thing to see horses win the same competitive handicap two years in a row, Designer is attempting to do that for John Butler in the fillies’ handicap at 4:45.

    By Pearl Secret, she was a two-length victor in last year’s renewal of the five-furlong sprint handicap when defeating Pink Crystal, a horse who has improved 15 pounds since.

    Following that success, she positively finished last season with a close fifth in the Listed Rous Stakes – a contest that included top sprinters Manaccan, Annaf, and Korker – before a good effort when runner-up to Fast Response, now rated 103, at Doncaster in October.

    This season, the four-year-old was slightly disappointing in her first three efforts of the year, however, she returned to somewhere near her best at Goodwood last time out when fourth in the Coral Handicap won by Lord Riddiford.

    During that race, she had traffic issues until the one-furlong pole, but when she saw open space, she stayed on behind the well-handicapped winner.

    Although some of her best form is on softer ground, her victory in this race last year was officially on good, and she ran a huge race in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2022 on a good-to-firm surface.

    Good horses act on any ground and I’m hoping today is the correct day to catch Designer.

     

    Class 2 Nursery Handicap (5:20) – Ziggy’s Queen @ 11/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in the concluding race on day one of the York Ebor festival, I’m inclined to take a chance on a Richard Fahey runner, however, it’s not the shorter-priced Blue Prince, as Ziggy’s Queen gets the nod at 11/1.

    By Invincible Spirit out of an Exceed And Excel mare, the handicapper gave her an opening mark of 80 after three promising runs so far this season.

    The first of which came at Nottingham on June 7th where she had a good educational experience under Oisin Orr to finish a staying on third.

    The winner that day, Beautiful Diamond, would go on to finish third in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, while the fourth, fifth, and sixth have all come out and won since.

    Furthermore, she showed the same level of encouragement on her next two starts at Ripon and Beverley to finish second.

    Both the third and fourth from her Ripon race have franked the form while the winner of her Beverley performance was successful on her next start at Thirsk.

    On handicap debut off what seems like a lenient opening mark, hopefully, today’s step up in trip can see Ziggy’s Queen at her best.

  • Newbury Tips – Arrest to Deal knockout blow – The Top Four

    Newbury Tips – Arrest to Deal knockout blow – The Top Four

    Although this weekend’s action is a pleasurable sight, competition is high.

    York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    Whether it’s through the exciting Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, the 20-runner Great St Wilfrid Handicap, or the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet over in Deauville, there is something for everyone over the next few days.

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    With that in mind, below are a few Newbury tips to consider for today, as well as one Ripon selection.

     

    1:50 Newbury – Arrest @ 6/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    I’m not the first, I won’t be the last, and I’m certainly not the most prominent person to tell you this, but with the rain that has hit Newbury over the last 24 hours, Arrest looks a good bet in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

    As I admitted on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, following his dominant Group 3 Chester Vase victory in May, I backed this Frankel colt for the Arc in October at 25/1.

    Although that didn’t eloquently display my ability to be a good judge, the performance shown around the tight track warranted a high level of respect as he swept aside Adelaide River, a subsequent Irish Oaks and Grand Prix de Paris runner-up.

    Two runs since on good-to-firm ground in the Group 1 Epsom Derby and Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, the latter behind King Of Steel, haven’t seen him to the greatest effect, however, John & Thady Gosden have freshened him up since and, most importantly, the ground will be on the softer side of good.

    This step-up in trip shouldn’t cause too many issues, and with the weight-for-age allowance in full force, Arrest is my horse to open up the Newbury tips.

     

    2:25 Newbury – Whenthedealinsdone @ 15/2 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    In the very next race, Whenthedealinisdone looks like a standout contender at 8/1 in the Highclere Castle Gin Handicap.

    The Roger Teal-trained five-year-old is on his lowest ever mark of 87 having only been rated this leniently back during his two-year-old season in October 2020.

    The handicapper has obviously taken a strong view on his recent runs this season as he has dropped 11 pounds in six starts for a five-year-old who still contains his original ability.

    This was displayed in his second-placed effort at Windsor when behind King Of Bavaria and ahead of the future Epsom Dash winner, Navello.

    The Dark Angel gelding has a good record towards the middle parts of the season after a few runs under his belt and now he is three pounds below his last winning mark – and 11 pounds below his rating when third to Fast Response at Doncaster – today could be the day to catch him.

     

    3:00 Newbury – Hodler @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, the Heart Bingo Summer Sizzler Handicap is under the microscope and as the biggest price of the three Newbury tips, Jim Boyle’s Hodler at 12/1 looks like an interesting bet.

    Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the 25/1 early price has dissipated to a skinnier 12/1, however, there’s plenty of reason to suggest why.

    Putting his disappointing effort on good-to-firm ground on Epsom Oaks day to one side, the Sea The Moon four-year-old defeated Charlie Fellows’ Gorak by two lengths on soft ground at Chester when officially rated two pounds higher than the runner-up.

    Following that run, Gorak won a Haydock handicap 17 days later before he finished just two lengths behind Jumby in the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, a performance that saw the handicapper raise him 19 pounds to a mark of 105, 23 pounds higher than his Chester second.

    Furthermore, Paws For Thought crossed the line in third during that previously mentioned Chester race, a horse who went on to win three on the bounce later this season, while the fourth, Broken Spear, was a winner Leicester on his next start and the fifth, Another Batt, has since completed a quickfire double.

    On that Chester race alone, Hodler looks well-handicapped off 89 even before you look at his final start of last season where he finished second to Astral Beau, a horse that has improved 24 pounds since.

    Out of stall four on Saturday, there should be pace around him thanks to Isla Kai in five and Top Secret in three, and I hope that the five-pound claim of jockey Luke Catton can help Hodler make it two wins from three races.

     

    Bonus Fancy: 2:40 Ripon – Holbache @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, away from Newbury, today’s card at Ripon is certainly one to be excited by with the Great St Wilfrid looking as competitive as ever, but in the race directly before, Holbache is a horse I can’t let go off unbacked at 9/1.

    The five-year-old by Coach House has been a loyal servant for the Worcestershire-based team during his three years on the track, a run that has included six wins from 27 outings.

    Two of those victories have occurred in his last five races and in both of those successes on the all-weather last year, he delivered a very impressive front-running performance.

    After a winter break, he returned to the track last month with a promising seasonal opener at York under today’s jockey Connor Beasley, a run that should have him spot-on for today.

    Thanks to the handicapper dropping him two pounds for the run last time out, he can certainly make a mark of 71 work, so the hopes are high for a good run today.

  • York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    The Ebor meeting at York Racecourse is the next big summer festival for Flat racing fans to be excited for.

    With a fair track for competition, tight-nit races, and highly-anticipated clashes, the four-day event on the Knavesmire next week is one not to miss.

    With that in mind, I already have an ante-post fancy for the event as well as one horse who is running at Ripon this weekend in the valuable Great St Wilfid Handicap.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    York Beq-ons for Shadwell star

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    Next Friday’s Group 2 City Of York Stakes has the quality of a proper top-class contest, and rightly so with York racecourse offering up £500,000 in prize money.

    Plenty in here have strong claims, but the 10/1 available with William Hill for MUTASAABEQ looks like a good each-way price from an ante-post perspective.

    Charlie Hills’ five-year-old has experienced a mixed season so far this year as he burst back onto the scene with a dominating three-length victory in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Newmarket before an average performance in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes when drawn on the wrong side of the track just 15 days later.

    Following a below-par outing in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes, when he failed to deploy his usual front-running tactics, connections have freshened him up for the Knavesmire next week whilst also stepping him down in trip to seven furlongs.

    As a strong traveller, which he clearly is, the one-furlong drop in distance should be no problem for the Invincible Spirit entire.

    On his day, he is very close to a Group 1 animal when conditions are right, and with this freshen-up set to have him 100%, 10/1 looks to be a nice price.

     

    Grey shouldn’t Mis Wilfrid opportunity

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    Back to the more immediate future and looking at Saturday’s Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon, I’m looking to take a chance on ARAMIS GREY at 20/1 with William Hill.

    Although the six-year-old is entered for the Listed Flying Fillies’ Stakes on Sunday at Pontefract, hopefully, Rae Guest and connections swerve that race and come here instead.

    Why? Well, officially rated 95, a career-high mark, the Gutaifan mare was third at Haydock two starts ago in the Listed Cecil Frail Stakes when behind Get Ahead, a horse who would go on to place in the Group 2 Prix du Gros-Chene next time out.

    Before that, she finished just a length behind the 103-rated Queen Aminatu over seven furlongs on the all-weather and beat Vadream, a Listed and Group 3 winner since, at Lingfield two months before then.

    Furthermore, Aramis Grey received an entry to the Ayr Gold Cup earlier this week, so if they fancy their chances in the big race – rather than the Silver or Bronze Cup – she should be running well this weekend whether she turns up.

    Hopefully, based on her form in the book, the experienced mare can make use of her well-handicapped status in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap.

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Well, the tides have certainly turned on the Sussex Downs, and by tides, I actually mean a monsoon of rain over the last 24 hours.

    The official going touched heavy on the round course following consistent rain all day, something that caused a few horses to bounce on the conditions.

    However, all of the rain has passed through – until at least Saturday anyway – so let’s try and find a few soft-ground lovers.

     

    1:50 Goodwood – Promoter @ 17/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opening contest is for three-year-olds over the 1m2f test of Goodwood and in a field full of horses that could be anything, the Ralph Beckett-trained PROMOTER is an interesting each-way angle at 17/2.

    Having raced five times so far in his career, he broke his maiden tag on his second start on soft ground over seven furlongs at Chepstow when he gave seven pounds away to Racingbreaks Ryder and won eased down at the finish; the runner-up that day has since won four races on the trot and officially improved 18 pounds, so that race looks like good form.

    Following two more runs at seven furlongs, he stepped up to 1m2f on Derby day at Epsom and was a big eyecatcher in the Lestor Piggott Handicap to finish a staying-on fifth on good-to-firm ground, a surface that wouldn’t have been preferable.

    This week’s run is his first since that day at Epsom, suggesting that connections have kept one eye on this race for a while, and out of the Dubawi mare Hereawi, a two-time winner on soft ground, he should power through the heavy conditions on Glorious Goodwood Day 3.

    Plenty here will find the softer surface to their dislike based on their pedigree, so siding with one who should be okay with conditions is a safe play.

     

    2:25 Goodwood – Vandeek @ 7/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    In the proceeding race, the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, there will need to be a good animal in the field to beat VANDEEK at the top of the market.

    Trained by Simon & Ed Crisford, who could have a good day if Chesspiece runs as well as I think he can in the Gordon Stakes, the Havana Grey colt was very impressive last time out at Nottingham to win by just under a length.

    That may not sound world-class, however, he blew the start under Andrea Atzeni, who retains the ride, made a lot of ground up through the pack and won going away in good-to-soft ground.

    Although he is by Havana Grey, a sire who wouldn’t be known for his soft ground progeny, his damsire is Exceed And Excel who isn’t averse to adding soft ground ability to any pedigree and his dam is siblings with the 113-rated Sirocco Breeze, a soft ground winner on debut as a three-year-old.

    This year’s renewal of the Richmond Stakes looks an average one at best and this could be easy pickings for Vandeek.

     

    5:55 Goodwood – Rogue Spirit @ 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, I’m taking a swing on one returning to form in the lucky last with ROGUE SPIRIT at 12/1 with William Hill.

    Although he has been beaten a collective 38 lengths on his last four starts, this three-year-old last visited the winners’ enclosure at Haydock in September 2022 when beating Al Dasim on good-to-soft ground.

    Including the seven-pound claim of Connor Planas on that day, Tom Clover’s contender received nine pounds from the runner-up who has gone on to improve 19 pounds thanks to a Group 3 victory in Meydan earlier this year.

    Since then, Rogue Spirit has yet to race on softer conditions, something that is beneficial to his chances as a Dark Angel gelding out of a New Approach mare.

    Hopefully, the heavy going, first-time blinkers, and booking of Tom Marquand will spark improvement as he looks well-handicapped off 87.

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    Due to the frustrating results on the Sussex Downs yesterday for Bestofbets.com readers, only one place could help me wind down for the evening.

    Yes, that’s right, if you were looking for somewhere to watch Harry Cobden hose up on an odds-on nag, Fergal O’Brien hit the target with one runner, and the famous Sam Twiston-Davies drive, then Worcester Racecourse was the course to be at.

    In all seriousness, we dipped our toe into the five-day meeting yesterday with two agonising seconds, so with hope for better results today, let’s dive into my Glorious Goodwood Day 2 bets.

     

    1:50 Goodwood – Amleto @ 2/1 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Starting with the opening contest of the day, I believe that AMLETO will oblige at the top of the market for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.

    A lot seems to be on the side of this Sea The Stars thee-year-old over the 1m4f test of the Coral Handicap, most of which the soft ground following a downpour of rain overnight; the thrice-raced gelding won on soft ground last time out, so he should handle conditions.

    Furthermore, a well-reported fact is Amleto’s stunning pedigree as he is a full brother to the 2018 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-up Sea Of Class and a half-brother to last year’s Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville.

    Of course, relations aren’t always destined to be as good as each other, however, there is some encouragement behind the strength of his family as his dam, Holy Moon, has produced 12 offspring that have gone on to achieve an RPR of at least 90, which is impressive.

    The 240,000GNS yearling purchase is definitely well-regarded by all connected, something that was backed up by jockey Tom Marquand after his Chester win, as he said: “That’s why you rush yourself back, to ride horses that are exciting for the future – Amleto is a horse that’s learning and building on what he’s been doing and he’s certainly going the right way.”

    Therefore, although he is a short price, I hope that will be justified by the time the opener concludes.

     

    2:25 Goodwood – White Moonlight @ 7/1 with BetVictor – 1.5pts EW

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    The Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes is always a difficult race to work out and this year is no different as I have made cases for at least five runners throughout the last few days.

    After deliberation, WHITE MOONLIGHT is the one I’ve landed on at 8/1 with BetVictor.

    Two horses represent Godolphin in this contest at similar prices with her and Dream Of Love, who initially caught my attention thanks to her second to Mawj on soft ground in Meydan, however, her back-class doesn’t immediately suggest that she could run to a rating of around 110 to win here today.

    Whereas, the Saeed bin Suroor-trained White Moonlight could be a very good mare in the field who, despite being the oldest in the field, can improve and continue her rich vein of form.

    Since returning to the track in June 2022 after a 971-day lay-off, she has a plethora of good form with fellow owner-mates Soft Whisper and Wild Beauty (both rated 106) as well as her close second to the 112-rated Saratoga Oaks winner With The Moonlight earlier this year.

    After that, she returned to the UK and following an easy run at Lingfield, she beat Heredia on good-to-firm ground at Musselburgh before her massive effort to succeed over the well-fancied Queen Aminatu on the all-weather at Chelmsford.

    Those two runs put her on a great trajectory to perform well this week and considering her dam, Fitful Skies, placed in a Listed event on very soft during her racing career, she can feasibly be a better horse in slower conditions.

     

    3:00 Goodwood – Baheer @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Finally, to complete the trio of fancies from the first three races, I can’t let BAHEER slip past me in the Group 2 Molecomb Stakes.

    When I did the Only Fools Live Horses Goodwood preview on Monday evening, Richard Hannon’s two-year-old by Mehmas was an 11/1 poke with some firms, and although I did expect to see some price movement before flag fall at 3:00 today, I wasn’t expecting him to half in price.

    Saying that, Herridge Racing Stables regarded him as the best two-year-old before the season began and although he disappointed on his first start at Newbury, he quickly put that aside to win in early July.

    He looks to be a horse who has plenty of speed over six, so today’s drop back to five furlongs shouldn’t be a worry, and in what looks like a beatable Molecomb field, I’m with Baheer under Pat Dobbs.

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    The Top Three is back in profit!

    Following the success of Random Harvest at 10/3 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes – who was 8/1 when highlighted on last week’s Ante-post Analysis column – and Baradar at 7/1 (with an SP of 16/1) in the International Stakes, the P&L is in profit of 0.435 after taking into account My Prospero’s loss.

    So, with the wind in our sails, here are my bets for Glorious Goodwood Day 1.

     

    3:25 Goodwood – Iberian @ 13/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    The first fancy of the day comes in the opening Group race at Glorious Goodwood and it is IBERIAN under champion jockey William Buick that has grabbed my interest.

    Two-year-old contests at this time of the year can be tough to work out due to experienced juveniles meeting unexposed rivals who could be anything, and in today’s Vintage Stakes, the once-raced Lope De Vega colt is the one I’m siding with.

    Having won impressively at Newbury last time out, only two of the 12 rivals behind him that day have come out and won since, something that is a worrying statistic, however, the manner in which he powered away from the field should still hold merit.

    Furthermore, although he was a non-runner on the weekend due to unsuitable ground, I wouldn’t be too concerned about slower conditions as Lope De Vega’s are usually ground-versatile and his dam, Bella Estrella, was a winner on yielding as a three-year-old.

    In a not-so Vintage Stakes, this 200,000GNS purchase from the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale is well regarded within his yard and holds plenty of interest at a nice price.

     

    4:00 Goodwood – Isaac Shelby @ 11/4 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Directly following the first Group race for two-year-olds is the Lennox Stakes and Brian Meehan’s ISAAC SHELBY is the one I’ll be siding with.

    The Night Of Thunder colt has been a consistent type this season thanks to his win on soft ground in the Greenham Stakes first time out, his second in the French Guineas behind Marhaba Ya Sanafi, and fourth in a competitive renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    All three of those runs look to be the best form on display in this contest and the three-year-old will receive a six-pound weight-for-age allowance against his elders which has him best at the weights on official ratings.

    Although one would have to respect last year’s runner-up, Kinross, at the top of the market, I’ve been slightly underwhelmed by his runs so far this season and personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing him on a better surface.

    Therefore, defending the honour of the three-year-olds, I’m hoping that Isaac Shelby can put in a blinder in the Lennox.

     

    5:05 Goodwood – Stormy Sea @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, in the penultimate contest of the day, the well-bred STORMY SEA will carry my money going into the 19-strong fillies’ handicap.

    Firstly, the second-favourite, Rowayeh, is one who should be feared as the form of his victory over Mystic Pearl at Sandown last month has been franked with the runner-up winning the Listed Coral Distaff next time out.

    However, with the slightly softer ground on the agenda today, I’m preferring to side with the half-sister to Bay Bridge who should handle any give in the ground.

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    Firstly, her Group 1-winning relation has his best form on soft ground – as shown by his win in the 2022 Group 1 Champion Stakes – so the official going description of good to soft, good in places, will suit.

    Secondly, if you can ignore her run last time out in Listed company, her success on seasonal reappearance at Haydock was visually very impressive and the second, Lmay, has since won a maiden and finished fourth in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

    All in all, Stormy Sea has plenty on her side today and on a tough day of punting, she would be the NAP.

  • King George VI Day Best Bets – The Top Three

    King George VI Day Best Bets – The Top Three

     

    The last few weeks for The Top Three column have been frustrating.

    Losses for Tower Of London and Rosscarbery were tough pills to swallow and last week’s NAP, Lezoo, was a non-runner on account of the ground.

    This weekend, if you read Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, you could be sitting on one nice slip ahead of Saturday’s Valiant Stakes (she will be one of the bets included below) and if you backed Simca Mille for the King George before he was taken out of the race by connections, then I do feel for you.

    Personally, when looking through Simca Mille’s form and pedigree, I had him down as a ground versatile horse who had performed a career-best effort on Good to Soft.

    Of course, connections know the horse best and he won on Good ground last time out, but his scratching from Ascot’s feature race came as a surprise.

    Anyway, with one dart fired incorrectly, let’s plough on into this week’s The Top Three.

     

    2:25 Ascot – Random Harvest @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Starting with the aforementioned Group 3 Valiant Stakes, Random Harvest looks like a standout bet at 10/3 with William Hill.

    At an ante-post stage on Wednesday, Ed Walker’s five-year-old was 8/1 in a field where Prosperous Voyage was still in; now more than half the price, I’m still keen to keep her on the side.

    Firstly, Roger Varian’s Ameynah is the money horse of the race (10/3 from 9/2), however, having her first run for 454 days on an unproven going description would put me off, especially due to the fact her dam, Tazffin, won on Good twice and placed in a Listed event on Good to Firm.

    In fairness, Random Harvest isn’t the biggest mudlark in the world as her best run to date came in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge on Good and she was a promising second in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Good to Firm before that.

    However, her last victory came on Soft over in Italy, so she could just be a ground versatile type, and hopefully, if she can deal with the conditions, she will come out on top.

     

    3:00 Ascot – Baradar @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Another horse mentioned in Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis was Baradar in the International Stakes at 3:00pm.

    The George Boughey-trained five-year-old loves Soft ground, as shown by his third in the Lincoln when getting to the front too soon, as well as his victory on Heavy when beating the race’s favourite, Biggles, in November.

    Furthermore, a look at her pedigree shows that his dam, Go Lovely Rose, was third on Heavy and second on Soft, so this half-brother to Roseman, the runner-up in the 2020 Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, should love every bit of give in Ascot’s going.

    Also, on his second-last run at Ascot in the Victoria Cup, the Muhaarar gelding dwelt out of the stalls, shifted across the track to the nearside rail, and made up plenty of ground when beaten by five lengths; Perotto, who won two starts later, finished one place behind and Spycatcher, a Group 3 winner in France after, completed the race in fourth.

    Off a lenient mark of 96, if everything falls into place, Kevin Stott could be on for an Amo Racing double depending on King Of Steel’s performance in the King George.

     

    3:15 Ascot – My Prospero @ 6/5 with BoyleSports – 5pt Win

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    Finally, as shown by my five-point outlay, my NAP of July is over at York with My Prospero in the Group 2 York Stakes.

    Last year, a William Haggas and Tom Marquand horse forced me to tears as Dubai Honour lost at odds-on to Sir Busker, so this time around, hopefully, there isn’t a repeat.

    The Iffraaj colt was comfortably Haggas’ second-best horse in the yard last year behind the incredible Baaeed, however, he has yet to get off the mark this season in two attempts.

    That wouldn’t worry me too much as the races he has lost in included a Lockinge Stakes over the wrong distance and a hot renewal of the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes where he drifted before the off and stayed on at the finish.

    In a quieter Group 2 race, the four-year-old would have to seriously disappoint in order not to win and, like I said on the Only Fools Love Horses preview on Wednesday, this could be a ‘penalty kick’.

    I’ve jinxed it, haven’t I?

  • 14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    14/1 Summer Plate Bet – The Top Three

    After the onslaught of Royal Ascot, the Irish Derby, and the Newmarket July Festival, this weekend looks like a comparatively calm few days.

    That being said, the Group 1 Irish Oaks is still a race to look forward to, and yet, this week’s The Top Three features three horses away from the feature event.

    Before we dive into those picks, here’s a quick look at the current P&L.

    Despite the near miss of Tower Of London and the win for Swingalong last week, a nine-point loss on Saturday has put us in the red by 8.9 points.

    With a big week needed, here is a look at my fancies from the Curragh, Newbury, and Market Rasen.

    3:00 Newbury – Lezoo @ 5/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    In an instance of deja vu from Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis column, LEZOO at 5/1 with William Hill is my big hope for the weekend.

    For my full reasoning on her chances, please click on the link to this week’s recent piece, but now with just one day to go, we can analyse how conditions may suit her.

    My worry on Wednesday was the idea of soft conditions, but with a lack of rain over the last 48 hours and just a few showers expected tomorrow, the surface at Newbury should be good racing ground.

    That will only benefit Ralph Beckett’s three-year-old filly and may even inconvenience a few others in the race.

    The closer I get to Saturday, the more I find it hard not to see her as the winner – though of her competitors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shartash outrun his odds at 14/1 – and hopefully, she can kick off the weekend positively.

    3:15 Market Rasen – Killer Clown @ 11/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    With the five places on offer at BetVictor for this year’s Summer Plate at Market Rasen, KILLER CLOWN at 11/1 looks like a good bet.

    Unlike Newbury, rain will hit the Lincolnshire track overnight and they could pick up another downpour on raceday tomorrow, so the ground might creep into some description of soft.

    Plenty of the 16 runners in the Summer Plate will want good, summer ground, however, any mention of soft in the going description should play into the hands of Emma Lavelle’s nine-year-old.

    Officially rated 138, two pounds below his last winning mark of March 2022, the lightly-raced Getaway gelding had a wind surgery before his staying-on third at Uttoxeter last time out.

    The age-old stereotype of ‘second run after a wind op’ will be on his side tomorrow and, now he is seemingly well-handicapped, I think he should be feared in the 3:15 at Market Rasen and he is my main Summer Plate bet.

    4:20 Curragh – Rosscarbery @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, over the water at the Curragh, the race directly after the Irish Oaks is the Group 2 International Curragh Cup and ROSSCARBERY will carry my money.

    The favourite in the race is Emily Dickinson, and although she is obviously a good horse, I’m struggling to work out why this is the case.

    Paddy Twomey’s mare by Sea The Stars has faced the Dubawi filly twice in 13 months and has had the beating of her every single time.

    The first of which was at Leopardstown in the Group 3 Stanerra Stakes where she gave 17 pounds away and beat her by a short head, and the second came in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes where she finished fifth behind Emily Upjohn, half-a-length ahead of Emily Dickinson while giving six pounds away.

    That level of form reads well and although rain will hit the Curragh on Saturday, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old loves, Rosscarbery doesn’t mind the mud.

    Off level weights tomorrow and in receipt of weight from a few of the geldings in the race, my faith is with the second-favourite Rosscarbery under Billy Lee.