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  • Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm – The Top Three

    Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm – The Top Three

    Ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend, The Top Three could be on for a potential four-in-a-row if all three selections win later today.

    This is thanks to Liberty Lane’s victory at Doncaster last week as my final selection of the St Leger Festival, a race that certainly raised my heart rate higher than I had previously expected.

    Securing a 100%-win rate from four selections isn’t easy, but I thought I’d start this week’s piece with a little bit of humorous hope.

    Away from my beckoning career as a stand-up comedian, three horses look like interesting candidates at both Ayr and Newbury today including a 14/1-shot in the opening Scottish contest.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Stormbuster @ 14/1 General – 1pt EW

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    There’s something about three-year-olds in open grade handicaps that always catches my eye and the same goes for Stormbuster at 14/1 in the opening one-mile contest at Ayr.

    The well-bred Dubawi colt is out of Barshiba, a Group 2 Lancashire Oaks winner in 2010, making him a full-brother to the 2015 Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes victor Arabian Queen.

    So far, the Andrew Balding-trained colt hasn’t shown that genetic ability too well on the track, however, he bolted up by five lengths on his fourth start as a two-year-old and finished third to Isaac Shelby on debut; he was even sent off 7/1 for the Group 1 Vertem Futurity and ran well for a long time despite being on the wrong side of the track in attritional conditions.

    This year, just six rivals have finished behind him in four races, however, there are excuses for these performances.

    Firstly, his first two runs occurred over 10 furlongs, a distance he has yet to truly see out, and in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester in May, he travelled well before colliding with two horses and soon stopped quickly.

    Two poor performances in quicker conditions are understandable as he has a preference towards softer ground, something connections agree with as he was a non-runner at Salisbury earlier this month for the unsuitable official going of good to firm.

    Back on a slower surface and off a lowly mark of 89, with his four-pound three-year-old allowance, today could be the day to catch him in a winnable handicap.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Nymphadora @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt win

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    The well-known colours of St Albans Bloodstock Limited make up two of the five runners in the Group 3 World Trophy Stakes at Newbury, yet it’s the longer-priced runner of the duo, Nymphadora, that I’m siding with.

    Firstly, soft ground and five furlongs are what she thrives off, as shown by her two victories this season at Chester and York; she even tried to Live In The Dream, a future Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner, four pounds in weight at Chester last year when second on good-to-soft ground.

    This liking towards soft ground is an unknown for her owner-mate, Sense Of Duty, who heads the market despite drifting out to 2/1 from 5/4 throughout the week.

    Due to a setback, the last time Sense Of Duty appeared on track was at Newcastle over six furlongs when an impressive winner of the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes; connections have their eyes on the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes in October, so this race looks like a nice preparation to get her 100% for that target.

    Sense Of Duty has yet to race over five furlongs or soft ground, and with her dam, Margaret’s Mission, a one-mile winner on good-to-firm, it would take a braver man than myself to be backing her today.

    With that in mind, both Raasel and Nymphadora are the horses that will enjoy the ground, with preference falling to the younger filly who should be fresher and receives three pounds from Michael Appleby’s six-year-old gelding.

     

    3:00 Ayr – Navassa Island @ 4/1 with William Hill – 3pt win

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    Readers of the Ante-post Analysis column or watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast could be sat on a nice ante-post docket for Navassa Island in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at 3:00 today.

    Of course, you can’t eat value, but the Michael O’Callaghan-trained two-year-old has more than halved in price to 4/1 for the £40,000 contest.

    For full reasoning behind her chances, click here for the link to Wednesday’s piece, but now we know the full field, let’s see what the pace of the race could be like.

    The likely pace angles look to be provided through Exponista (stall five), Dorothy Lawrence (stall six) and Imperiality (stall seven) while the likes of Bellarchi (stall three) and Raqiya (stall two) have made all with success in the past.

    That is plenty of pace in a nine-runner juvenile field, something that should benefit Navassa Island as her second to Porta Fortuna on debut came from an off-the-pace ride.

    Hopefully, I have done my calculations correctly because if I have, Navassa Island looks like an exciting prospect in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde.

  • Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Following a break last week due to the Doncaster St Leger meeting, today sees a return for the Ante-post Analysis column ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend. 

    Two horses are on my agenda ahead of tomorrow’s declarations for the Scottish track, so let’s dive in. 

     

    Island could be in paradise 

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    In 2011, the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde went the way of Roger Sez for Tim Easterby and 12 years on, her filly by Territories, Navassa Island, will be hoping to emulate her dam. 

    The Michael O’Callaghan-trained two-year-old caught the eye on debut in May when second in the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas. 

    She finished just a neck behind Porta Fortuna that day despite experiencing a tough route through the race; the winner has since won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot before a runners-up medal in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and a good third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes. 

    Fast forward two months and Navassa Island stepped up in trip to an extended seven furlongs at the Curragh where she ran well but seemingly didn’t see out the distance. 

    Connections agreed with this view as they brought her back to six furlongs last month and was a comfortable winner at the Curragh; the second, She’s Quality, bolted up on her next start at Sandown and the third, Letsbefranksboutit, succeeded in the Group 3 Round Table Stakes 13 days later.

    A look through her pedigree suggests that soft ground could be fine, though this is an unknown, and at 10/1, I’m hopeful of a big run from Navassa Island. 

     

    Group horse in a handicap 

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    This Flat season, high-rated horses have dropped into handicaps with a decent weight on their back to good effect; Ancient Rome at Glorious Goodwood and Equilateral at York instantly spring to mind.

    Although Rohaan has a slightly different profile to both mentioned examples, he still holds a good chance in Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1. 

    Firstly, the David Evans-trained five-year-old is four pounds wrong at the weights off a mark of 104 as the handicapper has dropped his mark since the entry stage thanks to two disappointing efforts.

    Despite this, with the rain set to hit the South Ayrshire track ahead of their premier Flat race of the year, he still holds good merit towards the top of weights.

    Once rated 116, the Mayson gelding last visited the winners’ enclosure in October when a comfortable winner of the Group 3 Bengough Stakes on good-to-soft ground.

    Before that, he was a surprise victor of the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on heavy and also won his first Wokingham Stakes off a mark of 112 on soft in 2021.

    Although Rohaan’s form this season leaves a bit to desired, he bounced back to his best having raced poorly ahead of last year’s Wokingham Stakes victory, so there is precedent for him to improve considerably.

    At 14/1, he is a classy animal and could easily be the best horse on Saturday.

  • St Leger Festival | You’re my Wonderwall – The Top Three

    St Leger Festival | You’re my Wonderwall – The Top Three

    It’s day two of the 2023 St Leger Festival and having kept my powder dry yesterday, three horses are firmly on my agenda to finish off the working week in good style.

    Hopefully, this year’s three-day event at Doncaster can prove to be as equally profitable as the York Ebor festival because if this is the case, we should have no problems.

    So, here are the three horses to consider today.

     

    1:50 Doncaster – War Rooms @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I’m starting the St Leger Festival with a confident play as there’s no getting away from War Rooms at 2/1 in the Listed Flying Childers Stakes.

    Trained by Owen Burrows, an operation that doesn’t waste many bullets at these big festivals, this Churchill colt is one of two once-raced two-year-olds in the contest having shown a great turn of foot over course and distance on soft ground in late July.

    What was striking from this victory was how he was able to pull nearly five lengths clear of the second within the final furlong-and-a-half in the conditions.

    Furthermore, although his sire Churchill was a ground versatile horse, the American-bred side of his pedigree initially suggests that quicker ground would be more to his liking, especially with a damsire of Aptitude.

    However, his three winning siblings – Herring Island, Rhinestone, and Aduna – all have great soft ground form; Rhinestone was even a valiant runner-up on soft in the 2018 Grade 2 Future Stars Bumper at Leopardstown.

    War Rooms’ breeding suggests that he could stay further in time, so today’s seven furlongs on rain-softened ground should be right up his street, making him a good play in the second race at Doncaster.

     

    3:20 Chester – Wonderwall @ 6/4 General – 3pt Win

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    Over at Chester, a horse that will be popular with Oasis fans is Wonderwall at the head of the market for the two-mile handicap.

    The multi-purpose gelding by Yeats has been a regular in the national hunt scene for the last few years, notably when successful over the now 142-rated City Chief by three lengths in a maiden hurdle at Doncaster before his fall at the last hurdle in the 2022 Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle when looking like a winner.

    Connections gave him a 288-day lay-off from the track until the Grade 2 Coral Racing Club Novices’ Chase at Newbury in late 2022 where he travelled extremely well into the race before fading on a quick ground.

    So, in the jumps code, he is a very classy horse. Even when racing in bumpers as a four and five-year-old, he won on debut at Ascot on soft, finished third to Knappers Hill on soft in a Listed bumper at the same course and then ran a good race to finish seventh behind the likes of Sir Gerhard, Kilcruit, Three Stripe Life and Grangee in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper.

    Since switching to the Flat, all three of his runs since the start of July have been over an inadequate trip of 12 furlongs, so this hike in distance to two miles should see him to best effect.

    Wonderwall holds a Cesarewitch entry for later this year and is currently 33/1 for that, so if today goes well, connections could be packing their bags for a trip to Newmarket in October.

     

    3:35 Doncaster – Quantum Leap @ 6.1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, the concluding race on ITV from Doncaster today is the £60,000 Mallard Handicap, a contest that should set up nicely for the slow-starting Quantum Leap under Callum Rodriguez.

    The four-year-old by New Approach must be a frustrating horse for trainer Edward Bethell – who is running at a 43% strike rate and recently won the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock – as in all four of his appearances on track, he has failed to break from the stalls with any intent.

    Despite this, the 19,000gns purchase has been successful in 50% of his races to date, most recently at Haydock on good-to-soft ground when making up a plethora of lengths to win comfortably.

    The handicapper slapped an extra five pounds onto his official rating after the run, so there seems to be plenty of wiggle room left off 87, especially when you consider that he beat Aztec Empire on debut who is now rated 93 and has good form with Sweet William.

    In what looks to be a winnable race, not many of his competitors look well-handicapped on their current mark, yet Quantum Leap does and should be feared for the in-form Bethell operation.

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Take on Ballydoyle – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend has already been one to remember, not just because of the horses, but purely thanks to Jerry Hannon’s commentary for the Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes.

    All jokes aside, yesterday was an enjoyable watch from post to pillar and for The Top Three readers, we were a head away from landing an 8/1 winner in the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes.

    Alas, it wasn’t to be and with Gallant Lion’s slight disappointment at Ascot alongside Urban Sprawl’s tame effort in the last at Leopardstown, we are searching for a winner today.

    So, with some brilliant races ahead of us, let’s begin.

     

    2:25 Curragh – Insinuendo @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first Group race of the day is the Blandford Stakes and back for another bite at the cherry is Insinuendo having run into Above The Curve – a future four-time Group 1-placed mare for Aidan O’Brien – in last year’s renewal.

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    The six-year-old by Gleneagles has been the stable star for Willie McCreery for several years and over the last 12 months, she has taken connections to Champions Day at Ascot and as well as the Bahrain International Trophy.

    Despite her age in a contest that includes eight three-year-olds, meaning she will give away six pounds to them, she is the one with the best form in the book.

    Firstly, she gave five pounds away to Luxembourg – a future Group 1 Irish Champions Stakes winner – in last year’s Group 3 Royal Whip when only beaten by a neck.

    Two months later, she rocked up at 80/1 in the Group 1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes and put in a remarkable effort on a slightly unfavourable good-to-soft surface to finish third to Emily Upjohn.

    Following an average run in the Bahrain International Trophy, she began this season with a comfortable success over a mile on soft-to-heavy ground at the Curragh; considering her best form is over 10 furlongs on good ground, this run can be marked up.

    With two victories at the course and some good efforts in defeat over course and distance, Insinuendo looks to be a cracking each-way bet in the Blandford Stakes and thanks to her two-month break from the track, she should be fresh and ready to go.

     

    3:25 Curragh – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes is a fascinating contest with nine runners set to head under the starter’s orders.

    As with juvenile races at this time of the year, plenty in here could unleash potential ability that they have yet to fully show, however, without knowing what will happen for sure, Porta Fortuna is the solid option at 15/2.

    Trained by Donnacha O’Brien, she has the unenviable task of taking on his dad’s Ylang Ylang at the head of the market as well as Willie McCreery’s Vespertillo who was second to today’s even-money favourite before her success in the Group 2 Debutante Stakes last month.

    That being said, Porta Fortuna is definitely the form horse of the contest thanks to her second to Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes last time out, a performance that can be marked up as she raced predominantly on the near side which was slightly unfavourable throughout the day.

    Prior to that run, she was sent off a well-backed 5/1 for the Group 3 Albany Stakes and won impressively under Frankie Dettori – who will get the leg up today – and the form of that race has been boosted thanks to Matrika’s Group 2 win on her next start.

    Furthermore, out of the Holy Roman Emperor mare Too Precious, a winner over 1m4f, today’s seven-furlong trip looks a step in the right direction and even though her sire is the brilliant sprinter Caravaggio, he has had more runners and winners between seven and nine furlongs than in the sprinting distances since his first crop hit the track in 2021.

    Of course, the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes looks like a tough race to win, but the form horse is Porta Fortuna and she is a big price at 13/2.

     

    4:00 Curragh – Bucanero Fuerte @ 4/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes is my race of the weekend based on pure excitement levels as the potential clash of City Of Troy, Bucanero Fuerte, and Henry Longfellow is mouthwatering.

    Although the Aidan O’Brien-trained first-string is a well-fancied favourite, I’m willing to go against the Ballydoyle pair with Bucanero Fuerte.

    Although City Of Troy’s performance to beat Haatem by six lengths in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes was visually impressive, I think that the form of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes victory is better and Adrian Murray’s Wootton Bassett colt he made all on his side of the track – despite the attempted implementation of a pacemaker with stablemate Launch – was no small feat.

    Luckily for connections, owner and stablemate Cuban Thunder is next to Bucanero Fuerte in stall four today, so he will have an easy lead into the contest.

    So on form, he has a good chance, but what about his step up to seven furlongs?

    A glance at his pedigree shows that his full-brother Wooded started life as a seven-furlong horse and was successful on his second start at the trip, finished fourth to Pinatubo in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, and then won the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye over five furlongs on his final career start.

    His other half-brother, Beat Le Bon, won the 2019 edition of the valuable Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood and has since placed over two miles in America over hurdles, so his pedigree would suggest today’s trip should be no problem.

    At 4/1 against a 4/7 favourite, he looks like a good price for his quality and hopefully, he can produce a stunning performance at the Curragh.

  • Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    Irish Champions Weekend: Appropriately named Lion – The Top Three

    d he looked Is anyone else eager with excitement for Irish Champions Weekend?

    Across both the UK and Ireland, there are 14 Group-level contests across three tracks, seven of which are Group 1s as well as competitive handicaps like the Old Borough Cup at Haydock, Lavassa Stakes at Ascot, and the Pentingo at Leopardstown.

    That is an insane quantity of quality that horse racing fans should be licking their lips for.

    With that in mind – though definitely without the same worldwide level of anticipation – I have three horses to consider for Saturday with a bonus column for Sunday’s action potentially in the works.

    So, let’s not delay anymore and get onto the matter at hand.

     

    3:10 Ascot – Gallant Lion @ 5/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As any follower of me on social media knows, I am a sucker for Tony Carroll-trained horses.

    Whether they are walking around the parade ring ahead of a 0-50 Classified Stakes at Brighton or competing in a competitive handicap around Wolverhampton, at least one of my eyes is always on them.

    Thankfully, this season has been an enjoyable one for the Mill House Racing faithful and it could get even better on Saturday if Gallant Lion obliges in the Lavazza Stakes at Ascot.

    The three-year-old by the late Roaring Lion has been in the tracker ever since my interview with Tony in April where the experienced trainer gave a nice – though not gushing – word for him ahead of his three-year-old campaign.

    “We bought him at the Horses In Training sales and he is a nice, sound horse who was gelded by his previous trainer, Mr Bell.”

    Maybe the Brighton specialist was keeping his cards close to his chest because the beautiful grey has won four races in a row at four different tracks under four different jockeys on three varying ground conditions, most recently at Windsor in the Racing League.

    The handicapper rewarded connections with just three pounds for his neck victory over The Whipmaster, a potentially lenient view as he had to do the hard work from the front and was a gutsy winner.

    Although a drop of rain could potentially benefit his chances, the gelding has won on good-to-firm twice and a look at his pedigree (Roaring Lion out of a Lando mare) wouldn’t immediately suggest that soft ground is a necessity.

    My whole heart will be wishing Gallant Lion home at Ascot tomorrow and with good reason as the 5-1-shot has a good chance to make it five from five.

     

    3:25 Kempton – Seven Questions @ 8/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Away from Ascot and over on the all-weather, the Group 3 Sirenia Stakes is a race that, although not always, can produce a decent horse.

    Mischief Magic was successful 12 months ago on his Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint success, so there is some decent heritage to this six-furlong event.

    Although this year’s renewal doesn’t look vintage on first viewing, the race could set up for Seven Questions under Callum Shepherd.

    The Kodiac two-year-old has been a busy gelding this season thanks to six track appearances and three victories for George Scott.

    In all three of his wins, the £58,000 purchase was impressive on the eye over both five and six furlongs on alternating ground conditions.

    As the age-old stereotype goes, good horses win on any ground and the experienced juvenile is a lovely galloper when there is open air to do so.

    However, he was unable to show this trait last time out at Ripon in the Listed Two Yrs Old Trophy Stakes when third behind the well-fancied Task Force.

    Although he broke nicely from stall five, he was quickly shoved into a pocked between horses and it wasn’t until the one-furlong pole flew past that Darragh Keenan could begin to get serious, but his attempt at a race-winning move was too late and he settled for a bronze medal.

    In isolation, that race can be marked up as the winner is a regally bred Frankel colt who I personally rate highly and the horses around him – notably Shagraan, Bombay Bazar, and Asdana – had all shown good qualities heading into the race.

    Last year, the first four home were all drawn in stall eight or higher, so out of trap number nine, Seven Questions is the play in the Sirenia Stakes.

     

    5:40 Leopardstown – Urban Sprawl @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This couldn’t be an Irish Champions Weekend article without putting up one horse from Leopardstown on Saturday, and although this horse isn’t in one of the feature races, Urban Sprawl at 14/1 is who I’m with.

    Similar to my quoting of ‘good horses go in any ground’, I’ve gone to the racing phrasebook again and pulled out the classic line of ‘back (insert name) blind at (insert track)’.

    Although this usually applies to Tony Carroll at Brighton, I’ve adapted this version to say: ‘Back the Johnstons blind at Leopardstown.’

    This is for good reason as the Johnstons – both when the license was under Mark’s name and then with Mark & Charlie – operate at a 29% strike rate and +£17.08 profit (to a £1 level stake) at Leopardstown from 36 runners.

    That course form is an interesting statistic and tomorrow, Urban Sprawl will be the first runner under just Charlie Johnston’s name to hit the track and he looks well-handicapped off 90.

    The highly-tried chestnut colt was victorious at Goodwood in May when too good for the likes of Tafreej, Dark Thirty, Classic, and Saturnalia, four horses who have won since.

    Urban Sprawl then went to Royal Ascot and finished third in a hot renewal of the Britannia Stakes behind the winner Docklands and runner-up New Endeavour who has franked the form with his second in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury next time out.

    Three runs since over seven furlongs, two of which in softer conditions, haven’t seen him at his best, though his last outing at Goodwood when behind the well-handicapped Rhoscolyn was full of promise.

    Back to a mile and on better ground, Urban Sprawl should benefit from a six-pound three-year-old allowance and looks to have a good chance on Irish soil.

  • Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Sandown Racecourse Tips – Mile Back To a Mile – The Top Three

    Following the immense highs of York’s Ebor meeting, Beverley and Sandown Racecourse are under the ITV spotlight this weekend for a fair day of action.

    But first, a look at how The Top Three is sitting heading into September.

    Overall, there have been 74 selections in the series since May 13th. Until the start of Royal Ascot on June 20th, the series was in profit by 28.65 points, however, after no winners through the entire week and a rough run until Glorious Goodwood, the P&L dropped into the negatives.

    Despite this, a profit of 17.45 points at the Ebor Festival means that The Top Three, after nearly four months, is in profit by 3.585 points.

    That isn’t an impressive number, but profit is profit and hopefully, this form can continue heading into the next few weeks.

    So, with that in mind, here are today’s three fancies.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Indemnify @ 10/3 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    The first bet from Sandown Racecourse comes in the opening seven-furlong handicap and having seen plenty of money all week, today could be the day for Indemnify to return to the winners’ enclosure at 10/3.

    The four-year-old grey by Lope De Vega has raced four times this season, though his only victory of the year occurred with previous trainer Roger Varian at Sandown over a furlong further than today’s trip.

    The gelding has raced once over seven furlongs during his career when second on the all-weather at Newcastle in a novice event beaten narrowly by Baltimore Boy.

    Since then, connections opted to run him over longer distances and recently, when racing over a mile on his last three starts, jockey Kieran O’Neill has consistently dropped him out towards the rear of the field, notably when fifth to the well-handicapped Perotto on stable debut for Alice Haynes in the Coral Challenge Handicap at Sandown.

    These tactics act as a contrast to his three-year-old season where his best performances came from prominent positions.

    Potentially, you could see a reversal in racing position today to send him into a more prominent position from the start in order to use his useful stamina trait.

    Off a competitive mark of 91, Indemnify ran an eye-catching race at Sandown – a course he is very familiar with – 13 days ago and if he can take advantage of a potential lack of pace in the contest, he could be the one to side with.

     

    2:25 Sandown – Midnight Mile @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    As discussed on Wednesday’s Ante-post Analysis, despite the main play of Astral Beau at the prices, Midnight Mile was also on my agenda for the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes and with her still remaining in the race, she gets the nod at 13/2.

    Having been with her last time out at Haydock when third to Al Aasy in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes, she performed well under Oisin Orr for the majority of the contest before failing to see out the full 10 furlongs.

    In running, her last outing was a tricky contest as she sat more prominently than her York victory two starts ago and hit the front with two furlongs to go, so all Orr could do was press the button and see if she could withstand 400 metres at top speed.

    Unfortunately, she didn’t and was passed by Al Aasy and El Drama, but against the more experienced horses, she still ran a great race.

    Back at a mile today on rain-softened ground, she could get a nice tow into the race from Mysterious Love and Nibras Angel if connections revert to tactics and sit her in midfield.

    If returning to her best, she could be a dangerous proposition in receipt of five pounds from her elders, so with that in mind, I’ll be siding with Midnight Mile.

     

    2:40 Beverley – Silky Wilkie @ 5/2 General – 2pt Win

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    The Beverley Bullet includes a field of just seven runners this year and unfortunately for readers of Wednesday’s Ante-Post Analysis, Rage Of Bamby is not one of them.

    I can only apologise for her absence, but as a replacement, Silky Wilkie looks like a good replacement to be with at 5/2.

    The four-year-old by Mehmas has had an action-packed – but largely successful – campaign for Karl Burke and owners Middleham Park Racing having raced without a break since November 2022.

    Although there would be a small worry about him being on the go for so long, the £17,500 purchase has only finished outside of the first four on three occasions in 14 runs.

    This streak of consecutive runs includes a second to Annaf at Lingfield in January, a short-head second in the Epsom Dash, and a second in the Listed City Walls Stakes at York in July, all of which is good form.

    Silky Wilkie returned to the track after a 27-day break on Thursday for a Racing League handicap over five furlongs, a race in which he ran promisingly to finish fourth when not asked too many questions.

    His task in handicap company off a mark of 108 was tough two days ago, so today’s Listed Beverley Bullet should be more to his liking and hopefully, the hardy four-year-old can show them a clean pair of heels.

  • Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Ante-post Analysis: Rage Could Be a Machine

    Although we may complain about the quality and quantity of racing from time to time, you’d find it hard to crab what was an impeccable week of racing at the York Ebor Festival.

    From Relief Rally to Warm Heart, Absurde to Mostahdaf, the four-day event on the Knavesmire truly delivered competitive action and great results.

    Yes, this week may not be vintage, but Saturdays like this are still decent betting products and they make the big weeks of Flat racing even better.

    So, with that in mind, here are my ante-post plays for this coming weekend.

     

    Bamby to Beverley

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    The Listed Beverley Bullet is one of the feature races of the weekend worth £25,000 to the winner.

    Many of the 11 entries deserve respect – including York handicap winner Equilateral and last year’s victor Tis Marvellous – but it’s Rage Of Bamby at a general price of 14/1 that has grabbed my attention.

    Eve Johnson-Houghton’s daughter of Wootton Bassett is one of the few unexposed types at the distance as she finished a good second last time out in a fillies handicap win by Designer at York on her first start at five furlongs.

    She sat in midfield for the majority of the contest before Charlie Bishop sent her to win the race up the far side rail, and although she hit the front with over a furlong to go, her well-handicapped rival collared her on the line.

    The run was a bit surprising as for the majority of her career, she has been campaigned over longer trips, notably when second to Commissioning, a future Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner, in the seven-furlong Group 2 Rockfel Stakes.

    If you watch back that run and stop the replay two furlongs from home, she looks like the obvious winner, however, she didn’t quite see out the trip, so this season’s drop in distance has been beneficial.

    Although her pedigree wouldn’t scream that five furlongs is her optimum trip, her damsire is Sakhee’s Secret who was a classy sprinter on his day, so there are glimmers to suggest the testing five-furlong course at Beverley could suit.

    With the added bonus of a five-pound three-year-old fillies’ allowance against the older colts and geldings, she is officially the best at the weights and if she can reproduce her York run, she has a good chance to return back to the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Beau on weather watch

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    It’s always difficult to know what the ground will be like days away from a raceday, however, a quick scan of the forecast predicts a washout day at Sandown on Thursday with potential spells of rain on Friday.

    This rain-softened surface could play into the hands of Astral Beau in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes, a general 9/1-shot.

    Fresh from a 50-day break, the four-year-old by Brazen Beau has improved from winning a handicap off a mark of 81 as a three-year-old to performing in top-class Group-level races.

    If conditions do take a turn for the worst, her Listed Doncaster Mile Stakes victory at the start of the season puts her in a good place to handle it, yet if for any reason Sandown misses the incoming rain – which shouldn’t happen – then her third in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on good-to-firm ground behind the Group 1-winning Prosperous Voyage also reads well.

    As for her other two starts this season, she‘a been unlucky to run into several fillies who are at the top of the division.

    Firstly, she finished third to Via Sistina in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes, a horse who has won the Group 1 Irish Oaks since, with Al Husn, a subsequent Group 1 Nassau Stakes winner, less than a length ahead of her in second.

    Fast-forward to her last start in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes, she was a good fourth behind the progressive Isaac Shelby (2nd) and Nashwa (1st).

    Nashwa has since finished second to Mostahdaf in the Group 1 Juddmonte International on her latest outing, franking the form of that race.

    Dropped in class for this weekend at the stiff one-mile Sandown course, Astral Beau looks a fair price at 9/1.

     

    Can’t leave Midnight Mile

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    Despite the strong case made for Astral Beau, I think Midnight Mile at 6/1 could be a dangerous rival for the Richard Fahey team.

    She performed with admiration in the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes over an extended 10.5 furlongs at Haydock last time out where she probably hit the front too soon and was soon overtaken by El Drama and Al Aasy, two good horses.

    Before that, the way she swept past her rivals in the Listed Lyric Stakes in July was impressive and she has good form behind Oaks winner Soul Sister from this season’s Musidora.

    Returning to a stiff mile on soft ground should see the best out of her, so if you don’t mind backing two horses at each-way prices, both Midnight Mile and Astral Beau deserve respect.

  • York Ebor Festival Day Four: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Some big winners yesterday, with Marhaba The Champ and Coltrane in the first two races. Highfield Princess just couldn’t catch Live In The Dream, and the gamble failed on Kevin Ryan’s two-year-old. But today’s a new day, and we aim to end on a high. Some interesting handicaps, plus the returns of Kinross in the City Of York Stakes.

     

    A Frankie Flourish

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    NAP: City Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 2/1 (BetVictor)

    Kinross is starting to get into the swing of things once again. That Lennox Stakes win proved that he is the best top-class seven furlong specialist, even if Isaac Shelby posed a threat. But last year he produced his most eye-catching win on the Knavesmire before snaffling Europe’s big prizes over 1400 metres. Trainer Ralph Beckett has said that he suits York, and the similar firm conditions won’t be a problem, much like last year. It will be a perfect send-off for one Llanfranco Dettori at one of his favourite meetings, aboard, surely, one of his favourite horses.

     

    From South To North

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    E/W Bet: Strensall Stakes (Group Three) – Chichester @ 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Nostrum is the pick, but Chichester is intriguing. Trawling through the form of each of the six runners that enjoys the firmer ground, with three wins on it in his career. And with some handicappers coming into the race, Chichester can improve on his Listed win over C&D in June, when winning by almost two lengths. He has the Group form and the ground and he could sneak a surprise second, not the first at York this week.

     

    Going for Hat Trick Gold

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    Handicap Best: Constantine H’cap (Heritage) – Aberama Gold @ 8/1 (General)

    Six furlong sprints are what it’s all about at York. And Aberama Gold knows all about it. In a breakout year he’s won a class two handicap by a neck, and then the Stewards’ Cup. Manila Scouse has backed up the form twice, disappointing earlier in the week however, and has claimer on board to take the heavy five pound rise in the weights down to a mere two. There has been no bias in the draw, if slightly mid-to-high, and can do the business of the rail from stall one.

    The Green Man finished third to Aberama Gold at York a month ago and has been kept fresh for the race by trainer Joseph Parr. A winner on firm ground lower down in the classes, he produced a career best with Danny Muscett on board to finish within two lengths of the winner. With the form backed up, and a five pound claimer who knows the horse well, expect the green man to cross the line in the places at 10/1 (General)

    And spare a thought for Anthem National who pulled out of the Great St. Wilfrid due to the soft ground. But at least we know he should get the ground here. Second last time out to Commanche Falls, who followed up again at Newbury, he shouldn’t be discounted just because he’s running for Philip Kirby for the first time. He can outrun his odds at 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Strensall Stakes (Group Three) – Nostrum @ 11/10 (Betfred), Chichester (E/W) @ 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    14:25 – Melrose H’cap (Heritage) – Lordship @ 4/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Vaguely Royal @ 11/1 (888Sport, BetVictor), Fox Journey @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    15:00 – City Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross (NAP) @ 2/1 (BetVictor)

    15:35 – Ebor H’cap (Heritage) – Live Your Dream @ 10/1 (General), Adjuvant @ 12/1 (Boylesports, BetUK), Berkshire Rocco @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

    16:10 – Constantine H’cap (Heritage) – Aberama Gold (HB) @ 8/1 (General), The Green Man @ 10/1 (General), Anthem National @ 28/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    16:45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Purosangue @ 7/4 (General)

    17:20 – Finale H’cap (Heritage) – Astro King @ 6/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Betfred), Killybegs Warrior @ 16/1 (General), Marie’s Diamond @ 40/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Although there is definitely a chance to turn this around, The Top Three has been in good form during the York Ebor meeting.

    Despite missing Warm Heart thanks to early morning price reasons, all three horses from yesterday’s column made money as Relief Rally won the Lowther Stakes and both Northern Express and One Evening placed at each-way prices.

    Today is a tough day, but hopefully, I’ve found a few to be on the correct side of.

     

    Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes (3:00 York) – Haatem @ 7/1 General – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Gimcrack Stakes is a tough puzzle to work out as already we have experienced juveniles facing new, unexposed rivals at the York Ebor Festival.

    Plenty have the chance to make a massive step up in Group 2 company today, but I’m sticking with the six-time-raced Haatem at 8/1.

    Although there’s the chance that Richard Hannon’s colt by Phoenix Of Spain could still be feeling the effects of his Group 2 Vintage Stakes victory at Goodwood on good-to-soft ground, his form in the book is miles clear of the rivals.

    Last time out, he beat Iberian, a horse connections think highly of, over seven furlongs when seemingly doing enough once he hit the front.

    Prior to then, he was a good second in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes behind Aidan O’Brien’s future Guineas horse City Of Troy and he produced a good performance in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes behind the likes of River Tiber and Bucanero Fuerte.

    Although he has to shoulder a three-pound penalty today, Haatem should be a solid play in a field full of unknowns.

     

    Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes (3:35 York) – Aesop’s Fables @ 28/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Call me mad and wishing for a bit too much, but there’s a chance that Aesop’s Fables could return to his best and spring a surprise in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes this afternoon.

    There is precedent from this season to suggest that these once highly-touted Aidan O’Brien horses can turn things around on the biggest stage, after all, he was successful in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot with Age Of Kings who went off as big as 22/1.

    As for today’s hopeful in the Nunthorpe, I’ve been patiently waiting for this three-year-old by No Nay Never to be tried at five furlongs on good ground and for a while, I thought Ballydoyle might find a lower-level race to ease him into things.

    But no, connections have bravely selected the Group 1 Nunthorpe.

    On the face of it, he does have to improve, but he has the ability to do that over this trip as five-and-a-half furlongs is the shortest distance he has ever tried.

    His first run at the trip occurred during his two-length Navan victory on debut, and the second was in April 2023 when he breezed beautifully into the Listed Committed Stakes but found the heavy ground too tough of a task.

    Furthermore, on his last start in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes over six furlongs, he ran well to finish behind Shaquille and ahead of Noble Style which looks to be good form based on what the former has done in two Group 1s since.

    Backing Aesop’s Fables today does require bravery, but I would hate to not trust him on his first start at five furlongs on decent conditions, so for that reason, he makes the list for the third day of the York Ebor meeting.

     

    Class 2 Mile Handicap (5:15 York) – Silver Sword @ 7/1 with Unibet – 1pt EW

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    The final race of the day is a competitive three-year-old handicap with 12 runners in the field, but it’s Dylan Cunha’s Silver Sword that gets the nod.

    By Charm Spirit, Silver Sword has been the flag bearer horse for the Cunha team over the last 12 months and burst onto the scene this season with a victory at Southwell over a mile back in April.

    Connections then stepped the three-year-old up in trip for the Lester Piggott Handicap on Derby Day at Epsom where he produced another good performance, however, the winner Torito just out-stayed him with his impressive stamina.

    Later in the month of June, he went over Pontefract for a one-mile three-year-old handicap in the Sky Bet Sunday Series and although it wasn’t a vintage race, he bolted up under jockey Greg Cheyne off a mark of 86.

    If you put a line through his last run at Goodwood where the combination of soft ground and 10 furlongs didn’t suit him, the gallant grey could still be well-handicapped off 93.

    In a line-up like this, the potential unknown ability of some rivals would be worrying – notably the well-supported Tafreej who is on an upward trajectory – but Silver Sword remains unexposed at a mile on good ground, and for that reason, I won’t be deserting him today.

  • York Ebor Festival – Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    York Ebor Festival – Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    Yesterday was an enjoyable opening day of the York Ebor Festival for a few reasons.

    Firstly, The Top Three began the meeting in good form thanks to two winners on the Knavesmire, a welcome sight for regular readers.

    Secondly, despite the small field (and my inner fandom for Paddington), the Juddmonte International did not disappoint, giving racing fans a truly classic spectacle to savour.

    Looking ahead to day two, here are my three main plays for today’s feature action.

     

    Group 2 Lowther Stakes (1:50 York) – Relief Rally @ 7/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Beginning with the first race on day two of the York Ebor Festival, although this is not new news, it’s hard to look past William Haggas’ Relief Rally at 7/4.

    The juvenile by Kodiac has been a model of consistency in the famous double green colours of Simon Munir & Isaac Souede this season and steps up to six furlongs for the first time later today.

    That shouldn’t be an issue based on how she has shaped in some of her races, most notably last time out in the Super Sprint where she powered through the good-to-soft conditions and hit the line well under Tom Marquand.

    This victory at Newbury followed a desperately unlucky second in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes where the 58,000 guineas purchase ate up the ground between herself and the winner, Crimson Advocate, however, she was on the wrong side of the head-bobbing finish and settled for a runners-up medal.

    Both Flora Of Bermuda (6/1) and Beautiful Diamond (7/1) were behind her on that occasion, and while they could take a step up and improve past, that would seem unlikely.

    This year’s Lowther Stakes is one to be excited about as it’s a deep race, but Relief Rally is the one who gets the nod at the head of the market.

     

    Clipper Handicap (3:00 York) – Northern Express @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Moving on to the ever-competitive Clipper Handicap at 3:00, Michael Dodds could have a strong hand in the contest with Northern Express at a fair price of 6/1.

    With regular rider Paul Mulrennan booked to do the steering, the Zoffany five-year-old has been bumping heads with improving handicappers all season despite consistently running good races.

    He showed to good effect in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race won by Witch Hunter at 50/1 for Richard Hannon who has since won the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.

    From that race two months ago, the fourth, Spangled Mac, was victorious in a Newbury handicap on Saturday, the sixth, Bopedro, won at Newmarket on Friday, and the ninth, Biggles, bolted up in the Bunbury Cup on his next start.

    Furthermore, it’s not just that race that has seen the form franked either, as horses from his victory at York two starts ago and third at the same course in May have won since.

    Northern Express has been remarkable this season and although he is rated as high at 101, he is officially two pounds well in and will hopefully get his big day in the sun at the York Ebor meeting.

    Listed Galtres Stakes (4:10 York) – One Evening @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The final selection on day two of the York Ebor Festival comes in the concluding contest shown on ITV, the Listed Galtres Stakes, as I’m taking a chance on One Evening to continue her progression for John & Thady Gosden.

    The four-year-old has to give weight away to the younger prospects in the race – Scenic, Sea Time, and Spring Fever notably – but a look through her form suggests she could be able to do this successfully.

    Beginning with her seasonal opener, the Galileo filly attempted to make all in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes, the first time connections deployed these tactics, on her first start at 14 furlongs.

    Unsurprisingly, she didn’t see out the trip and finished a fair fifth, five lengths behind her well-fancied stablemate Mimikyu.

    However, One Evening travelled like the winner when turning for home before fading under Danny Tudhope, so she still showed plenty of promise in a quality field despite losing.

    Fast forward nearly a month and she was pitched into the Listed Castle Fillies’ Stakes where she raced in the rear of the field for the majority of the race before making eye-catching progress up the far rail to finish a valiant second.

    Voodoo Queen, who has good form in the book, won the race with Ching Shih, a subsequent runner-up in Saturday’s Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes to Arrest, one length behind in third.

    To my eye, over 12 furlongs and on good ground, she is still an unexposed type and with Ryan Moore in the plate to steer her home, she has a good chance on the Knavesmire today.