Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing bets

  • York Dante Festival Day 2 Bets | Lighting up the Alley

    York Dante Festival Day 2 Bets | Lighting up the Alley

    Day two of the York Dante Festival is here, so here’s a quick review of day one.

    Chillingham returned EW money yesterday, and he did well to do that in fairness as he found himself out the back of a slowly run race, so his performance deserves plenty of credit.

    The less said about Wahraan the better as he dramatically missed the brake again and Mortlake failed to land a blow, though he still ran well. He’ll come on for that.

    So, let’s dive into day two on what is a tough betting card.

     

    2:15 York – Alligator Alley @ 9/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Starting in the opening handicap of the day, Alligator Alley is down to a mark that makes him dangerous at a track he has acted on before.

    The seven-year-old is very race-fit thanks to a winter all-weather campaign, one that failed to produce any victories despite some solid runs.

    Because of this, he’s on a mark of 89, two pounds below his last winning mark which occurred in the Racing League when he was a facile winner at Newcastle.

    Furthermore, when he finished second to Equilateral in a York heritage handicap in August 2023, he had a rating of 92, so he’s well-in on that run.

    His rating of 89 is a career-low, so hopefully he makes use of that.

     

    2:45 York – Symbol Of Light @ 25/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    I’m taking a chance in the second race that Symbol Of Light takes to the turf as well as he’s taken to the all-weather.

    The five-year-old sported the silks of Godolphin in his early years, though after an extended break from the track, he joined Julie Camacho under the ownership of Martin Hughes.

    With one turf run so far for Camacho, that occurred after a break on soft Doncaster ground, so a slightly better York surface should suit him better.

    So far for Camacho, he has faced trouble in two of his last four runs, one of which occurred at Kempton in November when behind Choisya (Listed runner-up on her next start) and the other happened at Newcastle when behind Dear My Friend (now rated 16lbs higher).

    Therefore, a more open York track should give him a better chance of coming off the pace and connections have given the son of Shamardal a wind-op in the run-up to this race. He also sports a set of first-time cheekpieces.

    With a turf rating that is five pounds below his all-weather mark, he has a chance to prove himself on Thursday and I hope he can as he deserves to land a good pot.

  • York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    Saturday’s column covering the action at Ascot and Lingfield regained the losses obtained from Chester last week, so we sit in profit ahead of the York Dante Festival.

    Fair play to the ground staff at York Racecourse for their frequent and detailed updates on the ground, so it looks as if the ground will start on good, good to firm in places.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    2:15 York – Chillingham @ 7/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the opener, there are a few reasons to think Chillingham could run well under Callum Rodriguez.

    Trainer Edward Bethell applies the first-time cheekpieces to his five-year-old by Ulysses today, and based on his recent performances, this should help as he wandered slightly when second at Wolverhampton three starts ago.

    Speaking of that run, that marked his first dive into a 14-furlong race and P J McDonald decided to stride on with him early into the race, so he did well to remain in contention at the line on his first start at the extended distance.

    Prydwen (who has improved 14lbs since) won the race and Zealandia (rated 4lbs higher) finished third; Zealandia beat stablemate Enemy two starts later, a piece of form that looks strong as Enemy beat Military Order (2023 Lingfield Derby Trial winner) at Southwell before finishing second to Tower Of London in the Group 3 Red Sea Turf Handicap.

    The recent rain will help take the sting out of the ground, so he’ll have no excuses in that department, and a mark of 96 is 1lb below the mark he was on when he finished a close second at Ripon in a Class 2 0-105 handicap.

     

    4:15 York – Mortlake @ 8/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    If Ralph Beckett has Mortlake ready to go on his first start of the season, there is a lot to like about his profile in this handicap.

    The three-year-old has to shoulder top weight, but he deserves to based on his juvenile season.

    The 100,000gns purchased bolted up by five lengths at Leicester on his second start of the season before he contested the Group 3 Solario Stakes.

    He came home in fifth that day, beaten just over two lengths, but the third (Devil’s Point) finished second in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes on his next start.

    Furthermore, he shaped nicely behind horses that day and Rossa Ryan had to momentarily stop riding one furlong from home as his mount moved tight to the rail.

    Connections have gelded him since and he drops into handicap company for the first time, so his mark of 96 looks interesting.

     

    5:20 York – Wahraan @ 9/2 with William Hill (6 places) – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the finale, despite his quirky character, Wahraan gets the nod in the Class 4 0-85 handicap.

    The six-year-old has had his fair share of issues so far during his career as he had a total of 786 days away from the track between September 2021 and December 2023.

    However, having started his career with Sir Michael Stoute, the six-year-old by Le Havre is under the guidance of Jamie Osborne and has scope in his mark to improve.

    Firstly, the chestnut gelding once had a rating of 96 – admittedly, in 2021 – but his time on the sidelines and a few poor runs have pushed his mark down to 82.

    On his last start, he wore a hood for the first time and dropped into a Class 4 handicap for the second time, and despite giving up nearly eight lengths at the start, he stayed on past horses to finish a close third.

    That wasn’t the first time he displayed issues at the starting stalls but it was the most pronounced event of his career.

    His actions out of the gates are a concern for today, but he is riddled with talent and he even comes from the same family as Was (2012 Epsom Oaks winner), Douglas Macarthur (2017 Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial winner), and Amhran Na Bhfiann (2020 Epsom Derby third).

    All things considered, I’ll give him a chance today.

  • Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    After keeping our head above the water through the first two days of the Chester May Festival, I was hopeful that we could head into Lingfield Derby Trial Day in a nice position.

    However, yesterday didn’t go to the script as Boardman stayed on past horses in the opener, Mashhoor went too hard too soon in the Huxley Stakes, and both of the Chester Cup fancies (despite the late support for Too Friendly) failed to fire.

    To round up the day, Chillhi pulled four-and-a-half lengths clear of the third but found the Tony Carroll-trained Oman too good. That hurt.

    So, let’s pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off as here are my main plays for Saturday.

     

    1:30 Ascot – King Of The Plains @ 11/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the opener at Ascot, King Of The Plains holds plenty of intrigue on his first start for James Horton.

    Starting with his form, he ran into Banderas (a horse who was third to Saint George and Sweet William at Southwell in April 2023) at Chester on his debut before a solid second to Ghara when giving weight away.

    The winner that day now has a rating of 93 and finished fourth in the Listed Lingfield Oaks before that race, so that form looks solid.

    By Roaring Lion out of the two-time Group 1 winner Golden Lilac, he is entitled to improve massively now he is a four-year-old as he didn’t race at two and he looks like a big-framed gelding.

    However, one of the more interesting things is the fact that Qatar Racing sold him 47,000gns at the Tattersalls HIT Sale in October, though David Redvers – the racing manager to Qatar Racing – is still one of the part-owners.

    Redvers is also the racing manager to David Howden, one of the other part-owners, and today is the day that Oisin Murphy (one of the retained riders for Qatar Racing) is having his first ride for Horton.

    I’ll give a quick word to Tony Calvin who highlighted this first in his Betfair Racing column. He worked this all out and I’m just passing on the information here, but this is all very interesting nonetheless.

    Off a mark of 82, he should have some improvement to come and today’s assignment looks like an ideal place to start that progress.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Strong Impact @ 11/2 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Moving onto the second race at Ascot, Strong Impact is a horse that can improve past her mark of 81 in this £45,000 fillies’ handicap.

    The four-year-old by Saxon Warrior had a decent three-year-old campaign as she ran into Infinite Cosmos – the Group 3 Musidora Stakes third – on her second career start before a good second over 1m4f at Newmarket.

    That race got a form boost when Sumo Sam won the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster and even the fourth, Marmara Sea, won a handicap off 75 at Haydock in September.

    Since then, she bolted up at Epsom in a race she was entitled to win (though she clocked some fast sectionals this day) and then she blew off the cobwebs at Chelmsford in April.

    Although she’s unsuccessful in two handicap contests, she finished second in the first one at Sandown where she ran into a Sir Mark Prescott horse who had recently stepped up in trip.

    Strong Impact was also boxed in for a while and the winner got the first run on her, so his performance was better than the bare result.

    Back on the turf, the return to eight furlongs is interesting as her dam won on good to firm over a mile, so this change in distance doesn’t put me off.

     

    2:40 Ascot – The Wizard Of Eye @ 7/1 with Bet365 (6 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the Victoria Cup, the trainer change from Stan Moore to Charlie Fellowes makes The Wizard Of Eye extremely interesting off a career-low mark of 99.

    Still with the same connections as before (minus former trainer Stan Moore), the five-year-old is a Group-level performer who struggled to land a blow last season.

    The Galileo Gold chestnut has had a gelding operation since his last run in September 2023 and he has a good record when fresh as his two best performances on RPRs came when returning from a break.

    He also ran in last season’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and he was one of the last to come off the bridle, but Kieran Shoemark found himself in too much traffic, so ninth was the best he could secure.

    The conditions of a Victoria Cup (strong pace, good ground, straight seven furlongs) should play to his strengths and if Fellowes has got any improvement out of him, he has plenty of scope to do damage of a mark of 99.

     

    3:50 Haydock – Indian Run @ 13/2 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Finally, in order not to make this an Ascot-exclusive betting column, I’m chancing the three-year-old Indian Run in the Listed Spring Trophy Stakes at Haydock.

    Although a three-year-old hasn’t scored in this race over the last 10 years, Holguin nearly won last year’s renewal and Happy Power ran a good race in 2019.

    Comparably, this year’s rendition looks like a winnable race and Indian Run made a good impression at York last year when he won the Group 3 Acomb Stakes.

    He beat Ballymount Boy that day, form that looks good as he won a Listed race on his next start and he was second to Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.

    Furthermore, his debut run has worked out well as the winner, Starlust, finished third in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint behind Big Evs and the second, Array, subsequently won the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

    With a few in here wanting slightly softer conditions, he’ll like the quick ground and he gets 12lbs from his elders.

  • Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Day two at the Chester May Festival was a crossbar-hitting day as Witness Stand recovered EW money when second to Never So Brave but Bracken’s Laugh couldn’t reel in Capulet in the Dee Stakes.

    Still, the EW return from Witness Stands’ 18/1 price covered the outlay from the rest of the day by 0.5pts, so let’s roll into the final day of the Chester May Festival.

     

    1:30 Chester – Boardman @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the opening contest, Boardman is trying to win this race for the first time having finished fifth in the last two renewals.

    Although stall 10 does hinder his chances slightly, the last two renewals occurred on soft and good-to-soft ground, so today’s better ground is a benefit to the eight-year-old by Kingman.

    Down to a mark of 94, he is three pounds below his last winning mark (which came over course and distance) and one pound below his last winning before then (which also came over course and distance).

    Furthermore, this is the time of year to catch him (seven from nine in the month of May) and he’s had a preparation run at Haydock on ground too soft for him to put in a solid effort.

    Jockey Phil Dennis guided him to his last success and he returns to the saddle, so he has a few things in his favour to put in a solid showing here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Mashhoor @ 10/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Although Hamish is an absentee from the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, the contest is a wide-open betting heat and Mashhoor stands out to me at 10/1.

    Johnny Murtagh’s six-year-old by Kingman hasn’t had the easiest career to date as he was late onto the scene as a two-year-old and has only raced 15 times for his age, but he seems as good as ever.

    He won three races on the bounce last season, though the most notable win came in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh where he beat Al Riffa by nearly five lengths while giving five pounds away.

    Although that was Al Riffa’s first start of the season, the runner-up ran into Ace Impact – the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner – in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano and then finished a close fourth on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Prix Ganay last month.

    After that, Mashhoor went to the Group 2 York Stakes and ran well to finish fifth of five, though only four lengths covered the field and both Alflaila and Royal Champion franked the form in Group/Grade 1 races subsequently.

    Although he finished sixth in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on his last start of the season, it was his first try at 1m4f and he did the donkey work from the front, so it’s easy to forgive him for that.

    With a run under his belt, Murtagh has probably brought him over to Chester for a reason and he holds an entry for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

    If he navigates stall eight well (he’s a natural front-runner, so he could well do this easily), he can outrun his odds.

     

    3:40 Chester – Too Friendly @ 12/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Spirit Mixer @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW both

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the Chester Cup, two horses have caught my attention, the first of which is Too Friendly for James Owen.

    Although the majority of his last runs have occurred over obstacles, that doesn’t hinder his chances as Metier won this race last year and he had a similar profile.

    As for Too Friendly, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 having won snugly at Kempton two starts ago, though his form over jumps shows he is clearly a good horse.

    As a juvenile, he was fifth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle behind Brazil and Gaelic Warrior and this season he finished just under three lengths behind Rubaud in a Listed hurdle over two miles.

    Rubaud ran into both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth after that, so the form looks strong.

    His profile is an interesting one, though so is the profile of Spirit Mixer for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

    By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, he finished second to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate in 2022 off a mark of 97, so his rating of 94 (and Callum Hutchinson’s three-pound claim) make him well-handicapped here.

    He’s had a few issues during his career, but a return to better ground will help and one can imagine this had been a plan.

     

    4:50 Chester – Chillhi @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    In the penultimate race, Chillhi has plenty in his favour at a course he has previous form at.

    The four-year-old had a decent juvenile season in 2022 as he won snugly twice and then ran in the hot £100,000 British EBF 2YO Series Final in October 2022.

    That race produced Streets Of Gold (rated 105), Legend Of Xanadu (rated 98), and Shouldvebeenaring (rated 112).

    As for his three-year-old season, his luck ran out, but most of his runs occurred in Class 3 and Class 2 contests, so today’s Class 4 assignment will be a welcome drop in grade.

    The one time he did contest a Class 4 came over the same course and distance as today from stall six; he made up plenty of ground that day, so the task of stall one is welcomed.

    Finally, his current rating of 78 is eight pounds lower than that day and William Pyle takes off three pounds, making him well-handicapped.

  • Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Action on the Roodee kicked off yesterday, though day 1 at the Chester May Festival ended with sadness after the awful incident involving Hidden Law after the line in the Chester Vase.

    For many, as the Dubawi three-year-old kicked clear from Aidan O’Brien’s Agenda, we looked at his performance and gave him plenty of credit for the effort.

    After all, he was very good at Newbury, it was just whether he could step up to a better grade and transform his form.

    Well, he did, so it was incredibly sad what happened to him moments after the line, and all we can do is give our best wishes to those closely connected to the horse.

    Just a quick line on yesterday’s results from the column; Al Shabab Storm returned place money at 7/1 (though he was unlucky not to win) and Cadogan Place finished fifth of sixth in the Chester Vase.

     

    2:35 Chester – Witness Stand @ 18/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Kicking off the action in the third race of the day, Witness Stand can outrun his odds back at a course he knows well.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye won a maiden on debut at the course from stall six of seven before he went straight into Group 2 company for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

    He did the donkey work that day, but still ran with credit to finish sixth in a race won by Haatem (subsequently 3rd in the 2000 Guineas). Iberian, Mountain Bear, and Son also franked the form subsequently.

    Having finished third on heavy ground behind Orne at Newmarket to finish the season, he blew off the cobwebs at Kempton when fifth to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) at the start of last month, something that will put him spot on for this.

    Going from Group and top-class company to a Class 2 0-105 will benefit Witness Stand, so he has a good chance to put in a display here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Bracken’s Laugh @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Something about the performance of Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford in April caught my eye, and I’m hoping he continues that progress here at Chester.

    The three-year-old by Zoffany has a strong pedigree behind him as he is from the family of Getaway and Guadalupe, a Group 1-winning mare.

    As for his Chelmsford success, although Capulet probably needed the run and could outrun his odds on Thursday, he beat a race-fit Orne who was sporting first-time cheekpieces.

    The top three in the market deserve plenty of respect, but Bracken’s Laugh gets the nod as his class has the ability to prevail.

     

    4:10 Chester – Dream Harder @ 8/1 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The form of the Ian Williams stable is moderate at the moment (13% strike rate over the last two weeks) which offers extra confidence behind Dream Harder’s chances in the penultimate race.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is highly tried but he also knows how to win having found the winners’ enclosure five times in his last 16 runs since switching to Williams from Jamie Osborne.

    One of those successes came at Chester off a mark of 85, just three pounds below his current rating, and his win that day looked easy at the line.

    Since then, he finished fourth in a Windsor Racing League handicap, a race won by Spirit Dancer, who subsequently won the Bahrain International Trophy and Neom Turf Cup.

    Furthermore, Tiffany (now rated 15lbs higher having won a Listed race in Hanover) and Tregony (a subsequent Listed winner now rated 15lbs higher) filled out the two places ahead of him, and Dream Harder had a troubled passage through the race that day. Even the fifth, Teumessias Fox, won a handicap on his next start.

    As for this season, he finished a staying-on third behind Intinso – an eye-catcher on his latest start in a £100,000 Newmarket handicap – at Wolverhampton before bombing out at Kempton on his last start.

    If you can forgive his last run, he looks to have a solid chance on paper and Jim Crowley gets the leg up.

  • Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    The Flat season is now well into gear following Punchestown and the Guineas last weekend, and the first day of the Chester May Festival is a good way to mark this changing of the guard.

    After a good amount of time spent talking about three-mile chasers (which is my passion) through the winter, my inner Flat brain is eager to see some rapid sprinters and Classic contenders.

    Chester is a tough place to bet due to the nature of the course, so the volume of fancies through this week won’t match that of the Punchestown Festival from last week.

    Speaking of the final big jumps meeting of the year, this column struggled to kick into gear over the first few days, but a helping hand from Minella Crooner on the final day pushed last week’s P&L to 18.5pts in profit. The overall P&L is slightly lower at 10pts.

    Considering the recent form over the last few months, a positive number in the P&L column is a welcome sight, so let’s not give it all back.

     

    1:30 Chester – Al Shabab Storm @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Starting with the opener, the Andrew Balding team have hit the ground running this Flat season (23% strike rate over the last two weeks) and that form can continue with Al Shabab Storm.

    The one negative against his name is stall 10, but his form is well above a few in here and he can make use of that if he gets a nice early position under Oisin Murphy.

    The three-year-old by Advertise debuted at Leicester in September 2023, but his best run of the month came 17 days later on much quicker ground at Newmarket when he ran into Accumulate.

    He hung left that day in the closing stages which allowed Accumulate to win, though the form of that race has worked out well as the winner won at Lingfield on his next start and the third, Native Warrior, ran into the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in April 2024.

    After that, he ran a good race on heavy ground at Doncaster when fourth behind Ballymount Boy, a good yardstick thanks to his form with Vandeek.

    Back to six furlongs is a positive, though his starting gate is the only worry.

     

    3:40 Chester – Cadogan Place @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    This year’s Chester Vase is an interesting puzzle to decipher, but the 15/2 price of Cadogan Place is one of great interest.

    The Frankel two-year-old started his career with a victory over Hidden Law at Southwell in late March, and although he got the first run over Godolphin’s Dubawi colt, the ease at which Oisin Murphy travelled through the race was eye-catching.

    On paper, that form looks strong as the runner-up bolted up at Newbury on his next start and is the 5/2 second-favourite in this field.

    After all, that was his first run and it was on the all-weather, so he is entitled to come on for it now on the turf.

    He was well-backed on the day, which is an interesting fact, and he is a full brother to Quadrilateral, the 2017 Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner who was also third to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas.

    Considering all of this, I’m happy to chance him at 15/2.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    It’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival, a week that has certainly had its fair share of varying results.

    As for yesterday, this column managed to get Brides Hill across the line, though there was a bit of bad luck through Flanking Maneuver and Lifetime Ambition.

    Still, with action from Punchestown and Newmarket to look forward to, let’s dive in.

     

    1:15 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW (3 places)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Over in the opener at Newmarket, Heritage House gets the allowances from her elders and she has some nice two-year-old form in the book.

    The three-year-old by Dark Angel is out of Global Light, a half-sister to the top sire Mehmas, and she ran in the Listed Nell Gwyn Stakes last month on her first start at seven furlongs, though she was a bit keen and had a troubled passage through the race.

    The Nell Gywn looks like solid form as she stayed on behind the Guineas-bound Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence.

    Before that, she finished fourth to Romantic Style (Charlie Appleby’s Night Of Thunder three-year-old who beat Ramatuelle in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence) in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes, a race that also included Adaay In Devon (rated 100) and Navassa Island.

    With two bits of solid form at Newmarket and race fitness in the book, she looks likely to run a big race.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Neveradullmoment @ 9/1 with SkyBet (1pt EW) & Bowtogreatness @ 28/1 with Bet365 (0.5pt EW) (6 places)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Two horses look likely to hit the frame in the second race at Punchestown, the first of which is Neveradullmoment.

    He’s tried three miles once before and ran a good race but was hampered at the second-last fence, yet he still stayed on.

    The step up to nearly four miles can encourage improvement, and he has form behind Intense Raffles (the Irish Grand National winner) and Where It All Began (Grand National Trial winner) from a novice chase at Fairyhouse in January.

    He was also behind owner-mate Perceval Legallois on chase debut over 2m2f and he has form on ground varying from yielding to heavy.

    As for Bowtogreatness, he’s a slightly sentimental bet, but Ben Pauling has made no secret in the regard that he holds him in.

    Although he disappointed in the Kim Muir, the race came just 18 days after his big run in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase which was maybe on the sharp side in hindsight.

    Furthermore, although his recent form comes on decent ground, his novice hurdle form came on soft and heavy ground and there’s no reason to suggest he’ll hate any softening in the surface.

    As for his mark, a rating of 130 is very lenient and Ben Pauling wouldn’t bring him to Punchestown for no reason.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Minella Crooner @ 25/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW (5 places)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Gordon Elliott’s Minella Crooner has always promised to land a big race over fences, and I’m hoping this theory occurs today.

    The eight-year-old finished second in the 2022 Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind this year’s Bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner.

    He also split Journey With Me and Kilcruit over 2m4f in a maiden hurdle, two pieces of strong form.

    Since trying his hand over fences, he nearly beat Darrens Hope on his debut over the big obstacles (in a Grade 2 novice chase) when receiving weight before beating I Am Maximus, the 2024 Grand National winner, at Fairyhouse.

    As for this season, a victory over Joyeux Machin set a good tone before he was a fast-finishing third to Jungle Boogie (who was running well in the Gold Cup before a mistake at the third-last) and Classic Getaway in the Grade 3 Savills Chase on New Year’s Day.

    Although his last three outings haven’t made for great reading, a return to a sharper three miles around a course he’s always done well at (won a bumper, won a maiden hurdle, and ran well twice over fences) will suit and the recent rain in the last 24 hours will cause no harm as well.

    For a horse of his quality, a mark of 142 is lenient in this field.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Kargese @ 13/8 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Today is a big day for Paul Townend in his search for the jockeys’ championship, and Kargese looks like one to help him on his journey.

    Although the four-year-old by Jeu St Eloi has raced at the Dublin Racing Festival, Cheltenham, and Aintree, she showed plenty of keenness on her last start which didn’t indicate any chance of her stopping.

    Her form with Majborough and Sir Gino from the two big UK festivals is the best here and I came out of Aintree with serious respect for her ability.

    She gets weight from the geldings, but she is a tough filly and her family tended to handle their races quite well.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Monbeg Park @ 11/1 with Bet365 – 1pt EW (6 places)

    Embed from Getty Images

    Coming into this season, I fancied Monbeg Park to hit the frame at the top level in novice chases, but connections have decided to revert him to hurdles.

    That’s not usually something I’m too keen on, but he didn’t jump with much fluency at Punchestown on his last start and his novice hurdling form is top quality.

    He beat Spillane’s Tower (a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner) and Uncle Phil (rated 149 over fences) at the Punchestown Festival last year and he was also second to Affordale Fury (the Albert Bartlett runner-up) on his debut over hurdles.

    Having won twice around the track, my theory is connections wouldn’t bring him back this season if he wasn’t spot on because he has had well-documented joint issues in the past.

    Therefore, with a lenient mark of 135, I hope he can outrun his odds.

  • Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    The third day of the 2024 Punchestown Festival began with a brilliant story thanks to Singing Banjo in the La Touche Cup, but the subsequent fatal injuries sustained by Kilbeg King and Sire Du Berlais marred the day.

    Sire Du Berlais was a warrior of a horse – his Cheltenham Festival record speaks for itself – and Kilbeg King was a personal favourite of mine who held plenty of ability and potential. Thoughts are truly with those closest to these horses.

    As for the column, from the three bets put up, we returned profit on the day as Will Do placed in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 33/1.

    I did initially think Buddy One had also returned place money after his run in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle, but Home By The Lee collared him for third on the line.

    Still, let’s roll on to the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – Zouky @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Starting at Newmarket rather than Punchestown, Zouky is worth looking at in the seven-furlong handicap on her second start of the season.

    Having run well over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton last month, she’ll come on for that and will appreciate a return to the turf.

    The four-year-old by Zoustar performed well in Listed company on two occasions last season when clashing with the likes of Queen Aminatu, Potapova, Breege, and Nine Tenths.

    However, it’s not just this form that looks good as she was second off 87 in a Doncaster handicap in September, a race that has seen Dark Thirty come out of and win subsequently.

    Furthermore, Poet Master (the winner) has improved since as shown by his nice handicap success at Newmarket earlier this year off a mark of 100.

    All in all, she has a good chance here back at seven furlongs.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Flanking Maneuver @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The first handicap race of the day from Punchestown is very interesting, and a few horses made it onto the shortlist, but Flanking Maneuver is the one I’m siding with at the prices.

    Despite his age of nine, the Beat Hollow gelding is relatively lightly raced due to his 760 days away from the track between January 2021 and February 2023, but he showed his well-being in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase last year.

    That race has worked out as Mahler Mission would have gone close in the 2023 Grade 2 National Hunt Chase if not for falling and he finished second in the Coral Gold Cup after that

    He has dipped his hoof into Grade 1 company on two occasions this season, one of which in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where he finished fourth and the other came on his last start in the WillowWarm Gold Cup.

    Arguably, he has excuses for both the runs as in the former, he travelled well but found three miles on bottomless ground a bit tough at the end, and he was badly hampered by a faller on his latest start.

    A rating of 134 is very handy when considering the excuses for his recent disappointing efforts.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Brides Hill @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Regular viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel or my X page already know the love I have for Brides Hill, and today is where she gets her preferred conditions.

    She was a non-runner at Cheltenham due to the soft conditions, so a return to a sounder surface will suit her.

    Her ability is apparent, especially on decent ground when going right-handed, and with Allegorie De Vassy’s potential preference for a slower surface, that puts Brides Hill ahead of her in my mind.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Lifetime Ambition @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    When looking at any hunter chases at the big meetings, class tends to prevail and the nine-year-old Lifetime Ambition is one who still retains that old spark.

    The Kapgarde gelding was a decent performer for Jessica Harrington as a novice and handicap chaser – notably when second to Capodanno in the 2022 Grade 1 Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase – but he switched to point-to-points in October 2023.

    Since that switch, four of his last six races resulted in a win and his most recent success came at Cork during an 11-length victory.

    He has form on better ground and he is a quality horse, which is why he should go well on Friday.

     

    7:05 Punchestown – Mighty Bandit @ 18/1 with Bet365 (four places) – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Mighty Bandit has a classic profile of a horse I like to back in races like this and the 18/1 available has helped sweeten the deal on why I’m with him.

    The four-year-old by Order Of St George gets six pounds from his elders and is arguably still unexposed as he’s had just three runs, one of which was successful.

    That came on debut at Punchestown when trained by Gordon Elliott as he beat Lark In The Morning by nine lengths, a good piece of form considering Harsh – an impressive handicap hurdle winner earlier in the week – was back in third.

    After that, he went into Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle as the 13/8 favourite but could only manage ninth. Admittedly, that was disappointing, but his wind was seemingly the issue as he had a wind-op soon after.

    Now with Warren Greatrex, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival on his first start for a while, so he’s likely to come on for that and a return to a sounder surface at an easier track will benefit him.

    He has to bounce back, and that’s why his price is so big, but the time of his Punchestown victory in November stacks up very well against the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle won by State Man (State Man was carrying 12lbs more) and he can outrun his odds.

  • Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Well, the British jumps season proper is going into hibernation very soon which means it’s time for the annual Sandown Jumps Finale Day.

    Most years, this card is a cracker, but this season in particular promises to be well-above average thanks to Willie Mullins’ multiple-pronged attack.

    El Fabiolo, Nick Rockett, and Impaire Et Passe certainly add plenty of intrigue, but here are my plays for Sandown’s Saturday card.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Court In The Act @ 11/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    The opener – as expected with a novices’ handicap hurdle finale worth £100,000 – is a proper race with 20 runners and nearly 20 different cases, but Court In The Act can take this off a lenient mark of 119.

    A few horses in here, notably Secret Squirrel and Fiercely Proud, have form that ties in with Lump Sum and Jeriko Du Reponet in one way or another but they are weighted accordingly.

    As for Court In The Act, he won a hot maiden hurdle at Kempton on good ground on Boxing Day when beating Onethreefivenotout (second to Lump Sum on undesirable heavy ground at Wincanton in November), Moon Chime, and Sea Invasion (third to Jeriko Du Reponet at Newbury on his previous start).

    Collateral form is a dangerous game to play, but when that much stacks in in one horse’s favour, it’s hard to ignore.

    Furthermore, Moon Chime was third in a hot Listed Cheltenham bumper (won by Brechin Castle) on his previous start, a race that has seen Fire Flyer come out of and beat Secret Squirrel at Taunton.

    Harry Derham is operating at a 32% strike rate currently, so as long as tomorrow morning’s rain doesn’t affect the ground too much, Court In The Act has a great chance to land the opener.

     

    2:25 Sandown – The Real Whacker @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Ah, The Real Whacker, my old friend.

    Having backed him to win the Gold Cup one too many times than I’d like to admit, he’s back into calmer waters on Saturday in what is a winnable race.

    Although he pulled up in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup, he was running well from the front for a while, but the quality of the race mixed with the soft ground saw his effort thwarted coming down the hill.

    Prior to that, he ran a good race in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase, a race in which Ahoy Senor has come out to frank the form. Furthermore, although he pulled up at both Cheltenham and Ayr, finishing ahead of Stay Away Fay is a good marker in my book.

    2m6f on better ground is something that I think will suit him whereas Hitman has had issues on good ground in the past (beaten by Zanza in last year’s Grade 2 Denman Chase) and there’s a possibility that The Real Whacker could get a freebie from the front.

     

    3:00 Sandown – Jonbon @ 2/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    El Fabiolo against Jonbon is a clash to savour, especially due to the fact it’s at a track away from Cheltenham, but there’s a lot going for the latter in order to make me back him.

    His course record is golden having won on all three of his starts, and his form is top class.

    He beat subsequent Champion Chase winner Captain Guinness in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase last year and it’s hard to ignore his duo of successes over Edwardstone who then bolted up in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February.

    It’s feasible to think that Jonbon can force a mistake or two from El Fabiolo, and when you look deeply into El Fabiolo’s form, beating Fil Dor by nearly five lengths in the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase can be questioned.

    So, it’s bold, but Jonbon is the side of the fence that I am on.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Le Milos @ 10/1 with SkyBet & Weveallbeencaught @ 14/1 with SkyBet – 0.5pts EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    As stated on the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel earlier this week, two make the most appeal in the Bet365 Gold Cup.

    The first is Le Milos who has been trained for this race by Dan Skelton, one of the sharpest operators when it comes to these big handicaps this season.

    He won the Coral Gold Cup on good ground off a mark of 146 in 2022 and he is just three pounds higher than that winning mark.

    Furthermore, the runner-up, Remastered, bolted up at Kempton on his next start while Corach Rambler and Annsam went on to better things, one more so than the other.

    As for Weveallbeencaught, his best form comes on better ground having finished third to Flooring Porter and stablemate Broadway Boy, two horses who need no introduction when it comes to their class, at Cheltenham in October.

    As a novice hurdler, he finished third to Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 novice hurdle on his first start over obstacles on good ground, so a mark of 132 could look silly by the end of Saturday.

     

    5:20 Sandown – Mahons Glory @ 14/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Patrick Neville has two horses running at Sandown on Saturday and I fancy both to hit the frame, though Mahons Glory is the biggest-priced contender of the pair.

    Like the opener, the last race is a corker, but the profile of Neville’s eight-year-old appeals to me despite his mark of 136 which wouldn’t make him the best-handicapped horse in the race.

    The Fame And Glory gelding had a plan earlier this season of running in a Graded race on his first start for a long time and then winning a handicap, as shown by his win at Kempton on Boxing Day.

    After 107 days away from the track, he bucked out like a rocket in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle two weeks ago and faded badly, much like he did in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle in December.

    However, after his Kempton handicap success, Neville explained that “the last day just knocked some of the gas out of him”, so one can hope Aintree has done the same.

    If this is the case, I don’t think a mark of 136 has got to the bottom of his potential, and you don’t have to go too far back to see his Aintree maiden hurdle victory over the likes of Heezer Geezer (who was subsequently second to Stay Away Fay off level weights), Mexico, Ginny’s Destiny, and Young Buster.

  • Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Aintree is now firmly in the rearview mirror, and as the 2023/24 National Hunt Season comes to a close, it’s time to take a look at the races on Scottish Grand National Day.

    Last week’s Aintree Grand National meeting was successful for the column as we achieved 11.95pts of profit, helping to bring the overall tally since the start of March to 3.35pts of profit.

    No doubt, the last few months haven’t reeled in a mountain of success, but let’s hope this run of form can continue.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Persian Time @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

    Embed from Getty Images

    Sans Bruit did the job for us at Aintree and for that, we can only offer our thanks, but a 10lb hike for the success is steep as he beat horses who were towards the top of their handicap mark after getting an easy lead from the front.

    He demands respect, but Persian Time is a horse who might have a few pounds over the handicapper.

    The six-year-old has shown his class this season as he’s won twice and finished second once, though that defeat came at the hands of Djelo at Newbury on his first run of the season, and Djelo has since improved 12lbs and won a Grade 2.

    Although he benefitted from an Authorised Speed fall at Ascot, Homme Public (the runner-up) won a valuable race on his next start to frank the form

    Furthermore, both Djelo and Soul Icon – the horse he beat on his latest start at Kempton when the Nicky Henderson yard was massively out of form – have good form with Master Chewy, a horse who came a head away from beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree.

    That bodes well for Persian Time, and with his form at the track from last season’s second in a handicap hurdle, he is a nice unexposed type running off 136.

     

    1:50 Ayr – Deeper Blue @ 7/1 with William Hill & Maclaine @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW for both

    Embed from Getty Images

    The £50,000 CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase has an interesting feel about it this year as the favourite is as big as 13/2.

    However, I’m splitting my stakes here as I want both Deeper Blue and Maclaine on my side.

    Starting with the former, he represents the on-fire Harry Fry yard (40% strike rate over the last two weeks) and sports first-time cheekpieces, something Fry has a good record with.

    The eight-year-old has tended to race a bit behind the bridle this season – so the cheekpieces make sense – but his second to Henry’s Friend when receiving just 1lb looks like good form as the winner won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase on his next start.

    Furthermore, Rock My Way was five lengths behind in third and he ran into Makin’yourmindup on his next start; Makin’yourmindup won after that and then ran into a well-handicapped Cap Du Nord.

    Deeper Blue was beaten by a well-handicapped Neon Moon on his last start, but he sprinted well clear of the third and he looks ready to put in another big effort here.

    However, a horse that carries eight pounds less is Maclaine, looking to back up from last month’s facile Newbury success.

    The improving seven-year-old prefers better ground, but he comes from a family of soft ground lovers, so the described soft ground at Ayr (plus a day of dry weather) should be okay.

    The manner of his victory at Newbury was impressive – one of a progressive horse – and he ran into Prairie Wolf at Doncaster in December.

    Prairie Wolf has since finished fourth to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham and then won twice more, so the form of that race is solid.

     

    2:05 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    The big question with Relief Rally in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes is whether will she stay seven furlongs, and that’s why her price is probably bigger than it should be.

    She was a small two-year-old and showed plenty of speed, but a lot went wrong for her at York on her first start at six furlongs and she had to battle late on to get up by a length.

    That showed promise of staying further to my eye, and you don’t have to go that far back through her pedigree to find horses who won over 1m1f and even went two-mile hurdling.

    I think this filly by Kodiac is riddled with ability, and although there is doubt over whether she has trained-on to become a proper three-year-old, this is a beatable field on all known pieces of form.

     

    4:10 Ayr – Masaccio @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Embed from Getty Images

    Regular watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know my confidence behind Masaccio for the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Aintree. Still, as it turns out, it was probably a good idea to skip Aintree.

    Connections have swerved Aintree to come to Ayr instead, and they are happy to step him up in trip to three miles.

    After his Kempton success, with a wry smile, Alan King suggested during his post-race Racing TV interview that the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over three miles was under consideration, but with an unchanged mark of 129 after that easy Kempton success, they’ve found a suitable handicap option with him on a potentially better surface than that of Aintree or Kempton.

    Welcom To Cartries is a highly-touted horse for Paul Nicholls, but his rating of 130 is one-pound higher than Masaccio’s.

    On all-known form, notably when finishing a close second to Jinko Blue (now rated 140) while giving 6lbs away at Newbury, Masaccio should have a higher rating than Welcom To Cartries, but he doesn’t.

    On that evidence, he looks like a solid bet at 7/2.