Best Of Bets

Tag: 1000 guineas

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Yesterday, we saw a shock as City Of Troy checked out of the 2000 Guineas in a major disappointment. Today will be a trickier challenge with the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. A rather open field with plenty due for improvement, so who takes the nod in today’s four to follow?

     

    Blast-Off

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    1:50 – William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) – Kalpana @ 7/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Kalpana blew everyone at the Craven meeting, winning in handicap company by 10 lengths. That kind of form is useful when stepping up into Listed company, and should beat the field, who are somewhat either exposed or inexperienced. She has plenty of staying pedigree in her family so shouldn’t have a problem with the trip again.

    At a price, a horse I loved last season, Carolina Reaper. It’s hard to say if she will improve from two to three, but she is a Group Three winner (albeit in Germany). It’s a hike in distance and more of a fact-finding mission today, and breeding suggests overall a mile will be best. But her dam did get a mile-and-a-quarter when three years old, so 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) may be worth a little punt.

     

    Alert And Awake

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    2:25 – William Hill Dahila Stakes (Group Two) – Stay Alert @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Stay Alert may be a little underestimated in the field. She wasn’t successful at Group One level, and this may more to her taste. She’s won twice going fresh plus she’ll get her ground. Also stepping down a touch to a mile and a furlong might bring the best out of her. Plus, she’s top rated without having to give any weight away which makes her price all the more appealing.

    Caernarfon was an Oaks horse, many people forget. And she finished third. She did get stepped down to a mile and a quarter, but never produced her best. Her last win came over a mile, and she’s only a furlong above that. Plus, a course win only enhances her chances further. She’s a little shorter than I expected, but she should go well. 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Golden Ring

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    3:00 – William Hill Handicap (Heritage) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Bague D’or is a horse who can go really well fresh, with two wins and two seconds. A slight negative is he is off the same mark as he was at the end of last season. But he did only race twice last season and this run may bring about more improvement. Mickael Barzalona is a really interesting jockey booking and may deliver a first win in less than two years.

    Adjuvant is another horse who can go well fresh with a win and two places. He inexplicably had a brief campaign over hurdles during the Winter, but he’s definitely a flat horse. He drops two pounds to a mark he finished second at the Goodwood Festival last year, where he was nearly two lengths ahead of third. Adjuvant won over C&D last May off a higher mark but has every right to hit the frame. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Struth is a really interesting character. He’s won twice off a break, including on debut. He finished third over 1m 6F at Haydock last season, which is his only experience over the trip, so is still a bit unexposed. 96 is a mark he can give or take, but given he’s won two races in his career in the spring, now may be the time to back him. 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A Classic Renewal

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    1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 100/30 (General)

    Yesterday, we all thought we knew how the first Classic of the season would go. Now the second Classic is here, it’s opened up enormously. However, a Group One winner in Fallen Angel should not be discounted. Brilliant backs the form up from her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season, but so does her win in the Sweet Solera. Bred from a Group Mile winner, she should have it in her to win this race.

    It may be a surprise that Porta Fortuna turns up here, but she almost won at the Breeders’ Cup. She came within half a length at a distance that she had not experienced that season, which shows a massive improvement at a young age. She should get the distance now she’s three, and her dam won over further in her career. Definitely a watch at 14/1 (Unibet).

    Darnation lit up my eyes when watching her live at Thirsk breaking her maiden. She achieved Group success since, but just failed in the Criterium for Fillies and Longchamp. She’s a proven Group winner over the distance which should stand her in good stead, despite her being 33/1 (William Hill, 10Bet).

    The very best of luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

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    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

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    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

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    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • 14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    It’s Irish Guineas weekend and I’m looking forward to the next few days, not just for the action at the Curragh, but some great races from Haydock and York have perked my interest.

    But first, let’s take a look back at last week’s The Top Three article.

    Hands up, I got My Prospero wrong. The return to a mile wasn’t his gig, unfortunately, and the way he stayed on to the line having looked a lost cause at the two-furlong pole suggested to me that he will be tough to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    https://twitter.com/simonmilham/status/1659962615441833985

    And as for Loyal Touch, my sole representative in the London Gold Cup after Silver Sword was declared a non-runner, he finished just three lengths off the winner, who looks like a very good horse, in ninth; we didn’t get paid out on the day, but I’ll be keen to keep with him on his next start.

    The two losses put us at a small loss heading into week three on the P&L, but it is early stages and we are down 0.375 to a one-pound level stake.

    Anyway, let’s dive into Irish Guineas weekend with four horses to shout about.

    3:15 Haydock (today) – GET AHEAD at 15/8 with BetUK – 3pt win

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    Kicking off Irish Guineas weekend, I’m with a horse who I have mentioned for Bestofbets.com before and I’m retaining the faith, as well as slightly cheating by putting up a horse for Friday rather than Saturday, but she is my best bet of the weekend so it’s only right to be on this list.

    GET AHEAD was the NAP for me at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes and having been put up at double-figure odds before shortening to 7/1, the four-year-old went off at 10/1 due to the late rain that dampened her chances.

    Still, only being beaten four lengths by Vadream is not a bad result.

    Fast forward to today and she is set to make a step up in trip to six furlongs and run on the good to firm ground of Haydock, something that is music to my ears.

    I won’t go over her case again in the same detail as I did before, though you can click here to read the explanation from last time out, but it looks like conditions seem to be in her favour today and that step up in trip should suit well on pedigree (she is a half-sister to the Guineas winner Chaldean).

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    She has also shaped like a horse who wouldn’t mind the test of six furlongs son at 7/4, Get Ahead is the best bet of the weekend for me.

    2:40 York (Saturday) – ZARZYNI at 14/1 with BetVictor – 0.5pt EW

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    If Get Ahead makes us proud today, this could have a link to the chances of ZARZYNI in the valuable five-furlong handicap at York tomorrow as Silky Wilkie, the four-year who was ahead of Get Ahead at Newmarket, beat Zarzyni on his last start. That is collateral form, admittedly, but it still counts for something.

    Unfortunately for myself, and others who have had enough of me talking about horse racing, this David & Nicola Barron-trained six-year-old is a cliff horse of mine, however, I think today could be the day to catch him.

    Examining his last run on good to soft, a going description he maybe isn’t the most effective on, he had a horrid run through from the rear of the field and once it opened up, Silky Wilkie was too far gone and Ben Curtis was able to guide him home to finish a staying-on fifth.

    The handicapper kindly dropped him one pound for the run and he rocks up to York on Saturday with an official rating of 96, three pounds below his last winning mark.

    Therefore, with a run under his belt and race fitness hopefully at 100%, the 14/1 for Zarzyni is attractive and is worth the each-way bet at York.

    3:00 Haydock (Saturday) – Little Big Bear at 7/4 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Little Big Bear is the joint-shortest-priced horse I will be backing this weekend and again, he is another whom I have mentioned in a Bestofbets.com article, however, that time it was for the Guineas and tomorrow, he returns to a former-winning distance of six furlongs.

    The run at Newmarket was too bad to be true; he was keen from the start, had to deal with soft ground (which is still a small unknown), was trying a mile for the first time, and he was struck into, something that resulted in him being lame after the race. Pick and choose which excuse you want to use for the Guineas because he does have them, and they are real excuses.

    I’ve seen a few people wonder if the son of No Nay Never has trained on from his superstar two-year-old season, and I see no reason to suggest why he wouldn’t have.

    His dam, Adventure Seeker, only raced as a three-year-old, as did his half-brother American Graffiti, and she won a Listed event in France on her penultimate start.

    Of course, his sire was unbeaten as a juvenile before losing on his first start at three, but he still won the Group 3 Woodford in Keeneland before finishing second in a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, a run that was his career-best performance on RPRs.

    Aidan O’Brien’s European champion two-year-old has already beaten Bradsell, who reappears tomorrow in the Sandy Lane, and there aren’t many others in the contest that would worry me, so I’m hoping that ‘The Bear’ can put in a performance to savour at Haydock tomorrow for the Irish on their Guineas weekend.

    3:30 Haydock (Saturday) – Dramatised at 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Remember when we all thought Dramatised was a world-beater after her Royal Ascot win in the Queen Mary?

    Although the form may not be the strongest now, the head-to-head record between Dramatised and The Platinum Queen reads 2-0 in favour of the Karl Burke runner having also beaten tomorrow’s favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Both times, The Platinum Queen was running off the same weight as the Showcasing filly and both times she was well beaten, so with the now Roger Varian-trained three-year-old set to give five pounds away, I think there is plenty of reason to take her on with Dramatised and hope that the scoreline lengthens by the time Saturday is finished.

    Of course, there are 12 other runners for Dramatised to try and beat, but similarly, they are having to give weight away to a horse that is officially the joint-third highest-rated horse in the contest and I think the angle that she is coming into the race fresh and on the quick ground should suit very well.

    If you can get 5/1 anywhere, the each-way play doesn’t look too bad at all, but I will be siding with the 9/2 available with Betvictor for Dramatised in the Group 2 Temple Stakes as a win bet.

    P&L: -0.375 (after two weeks)

  • 16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    Well, last week’s ante-post analysis turned out to be a profitable one, something that is always brilliant.

    THE FOXES delivered in the Dante Stakes at 13/2 to put readers in clover with CLARENDON HOUSE just missing out of the places and SILVER SWORD a late non-runner from the London Gold Cup.

    And despite a frustrating week for The Top Three article (more on that this Friday), we are heading full steam ahead into a regular week of good racing on the weekend with the Irish Guineas meeting at the Curragh taking centre stage.

    So, let’s dive into my early ante-post interests.

    O’Brien masterclass… again? 

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    It’s been six years since Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish 2000 Guineas, a stat that comes as a surprise considering the firepower the master of Ballydoyle usually has at his disposal.

    And it’s not like it has been through a lack of trying as the master trainer has sent 18 horses to the one-mile Curragh contest since Churchill’s win in 2017, with the most (6) coming in 2020 and the least (1) occurring last season.

    That stat does make you wonder why O’Brien is sending fewer horses to the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. It could be a change of tactics employed by Ballydoyle to only send ones with winning chances and the drop in regularity of pacemakers in these Group 1 contests over the last few seasons, or the effects of Galileo’s progeny production winding down before he passed away in 2021 could be accountable for this.

    However, it seems like we could see a couple more runners for O’Brien in this year’s renewal with Paddington, Age Of Kings, and Cairo all still in the race at the time of writing (Wednesday), but it is the latter who has caught my eye.

    By Quality Road, a four-time Grade 1 winner in the US at one-mile plus, out of a Galileo mare called Cuff, who won a Listed contest at six furlongs and is a full sister to Mars, Gustav Klimt, and Friendly, Cairo looks to have a pedigree that is promising and should suit the one-mile test well having already won at that trip twice.

    If you can forgive the three-year-old’s last run in the UAE Derby over nine-and-a-half furlongs, his two-length win at Dundalk was one with plenty of promise to build on his impressive victory at the end of last season in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes.

    The interesting thing about his Dundalk win is that Ryan Moore came over for the ride in early March and has only ever ridden at the track 16 times, winning on 10 of those occasions, so that would potentially suggest that he comes over for the useful horses.

    With all of this brought together, the 12/1 with William Hill is one that looks like a good price to me and I will be backing CAIRO for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    Able to Silence favourite backers 

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    Although the 2000 Guineas is a tough problem to work out, the Fillies’ equivalent could be cut and dry.

    Tahiyra was second in the Newmarket Guineas to a very good Mawj, pulled a long way clear of the rest, and could theoretically come on for the run.

    So this is simple, right? Well, there could be a bit more under the surface to discover.

    Firstly, she won’t be getting her soft ground conditions that she has received on her last two starts. This isn’t too much of a worry because she won on good to yielding on debut and her pedigree would say that good ground should be fine.

    Secondly, I have a small concern about why she didn’t pass Mawj last time out. She looked for all the world like she would glide by without any hindrance, however, she slightly hung her head into the winner and looked a small bit reluctant to move past.

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    And thirdly, that Guineas was run in attritional conditions and would have been a very, very hard race for a horse who was making their first start for eight months. Having received just a 21-day break, the bounce factor is a possibility.

    Can I see Tahiyra winning? Absolutely. Will I be backing her at 4/7? No, and I have an angle to take her on with.

    I’m going with a similar form line to the odds-on favourite as the ETERNAL SILENCE, third in the Moyglare Stakes behind Dermot Weld’s filly, is an exciting bet at 16/1 with William Hill.

    If you analyse her last run at the Curragh, Shane Foley was keen to drop her to the rear of the pack to try and settle this daughter of War Front into the race.

    That does occur and when she gets a clear route to the finish, Foley kicks for home and finishes best of the rest behind Tahiyra and Meditate, staying on over the seven-furlong trip.

    The step back up to a mile for the Irish 1000 Guineas, a distance she was third over two starts ago, should suit and on pedigree, she should be a better three-year-old as her dam, Princess Highway, won the 2012 Ribblesdale as a three-year-old.

    I’m hoping to see some improvement, which is required, but she looks to have the scope to do so.

    As mentioned on the recent Only Fools Love Horses video, her at 16/1 and Meditate at 7/1 will be the two plays for me, with the case for the latter being a return to front-running tactics and better ground could see her reverse the Newmarket and Curragh form with Tahiyra.

    So, the 4/7 favourite is one I am taking on. Am I making a rod for my own back? Most probably. Do I have an issue with that? No, who doesn’t love taking a bit of an exciting risk?

  • Four To Follow Tahiyra the Talent

    Four To Follow Tahiyra the Talent

    A special Sunday Four to Follow as we take a look at 1000 Guineas Day. Last year Cachet ran them ragged, but this year we could see a return to the dominance of Ireland and Dubai. Here are four to watch out for on Sunday afternoon.

    1:15 – Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) – Adayar @ 6/5 (General) & Migration (W/O Adayar)

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    Everyone is looking forward to welcoming back Adayar to the track. It seems an age since he won the Derby, given that we have only seen him five times over two years. Charlie Appleby has said the aim for this horse is the Prince of Wales’s at Royal Ascot, and this could be a good starting point. Clear on ratings, the question is the ground. It turned to soft ground before the 2000 Guineas and there is a chance of a light shower today too. Watch out for bottomless ground.

    One who can handle the soft and the heavy is Migration, who kicked off the flat season by winning the Lincoln in testing conditions. He’s usually a handicap horse, but has run in open company before. It might look a stern test on paper, but he’s the one with the proven stamina on testing ground. No problem with stepping up in trip, particularly on soft ground.

    1:50 – Howden Handicap – Berkshire Rocco @ 11/1 (William Hill)

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    It’s another wide-open handicap over 1m 6F. It’s a tough call but I’ve gone for Berkshire Rocco. He’s ben starting to get the hang of things over on the all-weather, but 1m 6F over soft ground is ideal. And despite being third highest in the weights, he’s down to his lowest mark since the 2019 Zetland Stakes, racing as a two-year-old. It will be interesting to see how he fairs on his first return to the track in three-and-a-half-years

    I also fancy the chances of Legendary Day. He seems to be on the drift, but cleverly avoids the five-pound penalty with jockey Jamie Powell taking 5lbs off. He reappeared winning over 2m on soft ground at Ripon and is versatile on any ground. He’s been turned out quickly, but just like Kitty’s Light last week it could pay out.

    One to consider at a price is Torcello. A soft ground specialist and dour stayer. With age, he’s stepped down in trip to 1m 4F, but on soft ground he has licence to go further. He ran a strange race on reappearance this season, so hopefully we see the best of him today.

    3:00 – Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) – Astral Beau @ 11/1 (Boylesports, BetUK)

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    Astral Beau is the soft ground specialist of the field. She annihilated the field at Doncaster in a listed contest and her rating allows to make the big step up in grade. And despite being surrounded with horses who are more than capable than her, she loves the mud, and at double figure prices she’s the one to have.

    3:40 – QIPCO 1000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – Tahiyra @ 7/4 (Betfred, BetUK)

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    I’m on the Tahyira train. She is a talented filly, and it showed when she won the Moyglare on soft ground. She may be inexperienced on form, but the talent she has from both sire and dam have merged into this one and there is no reason why Tahiyra cannot win. Meditate is good, but she has some ground to make up on the favourite.

    I also feel that Mawj deserves a big chance here, but has the bookies quoting her at double-figure prices. She had a fantastic Winter in Dubai, stepping up to the mile trip without hesitation and taking to it brilliantly. Mawj is also a half-sister to Modern Games and Modern News, who both gained blac-type over the mile trip. You could say, she’s bred for a race like this.

    The very best of luck!