The end of this week is a real treat thanks to the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, and this article highlights my fancies for HQ as well as my Punchestown Festival 2025 Day 4 selections.
Shock, like Aintree and Cheltenham, Punchestown is causing a bit of displeasure. Petit Tonnerre winning yesterday’s two-mile handicap chase at 16/1 having finished a dismal ninth at Aintree (with my money on) was certainly a kick in the teeth.
The great game.
Anyway, I’ll put the miny violin down and pick out a few more horses for Friday.
Punchestown Festival 2025 Day 4 Selections
2:35 Goodwood – Toca Madera @ 11/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW
Although there’s great action at Punchestown and Newmarket, Toca Madera makes good appeal over at Goodwood with their competitive card.
The four-year-old by Bated Breath started his season positively two weeks ago when second to Regal Envoy at Newmarket, and he should come on for the effort fitness-wise.
He won a Windsor handicap in the Racing League last season on good to firm ground off a mark of 94, so his rating of 96 looks workable, and Tommie Jakes’ 5lb claim puts him in a nice spot at the weights.
Including Jakes’ claim, he gets an 11lb swing in the weights with Shagraan based on their Goodwood clash in August 2024, and all that separated them that day was one length.
The pair met each other again at Haydock when Shagraan beat him by two lengths, but again, Toca Madera gets a 9lbs swing in the weights.
A look back at his two-year-old form is pleasing as well, as he finished a fine third to Vandeek on soft ground in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, and he was also third in the Group 2 July Stakes to Jasour (rated 109) and Lake Forrest (rated 110).
With race fitness and a workable mark, he can get his head in front here.
4:05 Newmarket – Ambiente Friendly @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Looking at James Owen’s comments in the Racing Post, it seems like Ambiente Friendly has “come on a hell of a lot” for his first run of the season, so with this in mind, I’d fancy him to win the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes.
He stepped down to nine furlongs when running in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes 17 days ago, and with no pace in the race, he tried to make all.
He ran a fine race, but he was a sitting duck at the front end and was passed with two furlongs to go. However, Richard Hannon said that the Earl Of Setfon was Persica’s Gold Cup, and he was a much fitter horse on the day.
So, with race fitness now on Ambiente Friendly’s side, he looks like a bet in this, and his form from last season looks great.
He bolted up in the Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes, finished second in the Epsom Derby, finished third in the Irish Derby, and finished a fine fifth in the Prix Niel on soft ground.
The form of that Prix Niel got a boost last month when Sosie won the Group 1 Prix Ganay, and running into the likes of City Of Troy and Los Angeles last season is not bad at all.
The tongue tie returning is an interesting move, but I’ll keep him on side here
4:15 Punchestown – Viroflay @ 11/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Olive Nicholls sends Viroflay to the 3m½f Champion Hunters Chase, and in an open race, he could be the answer.
I’ve had a good knack of backing horses who have been held up all week at Punchestown, and that really hasn’t gone well, but I’m confident this won’t be the case with this improving eight-year-old.
He went from the front when second at Stratford, and he jumped well apart from the seventh fence. They went a slow gallop that day, and he was done by Barton Snow when it turned into a sprint in the home straight.
Barton Snow is a horse who raced over two miles under rules, so he probably just had more speed, and Barton Snow is a horse I fancy to win the opener at Cheltenham later this evening.
Viroflay put that behind him to bolt up at Kempton at short odds earlier this season, and returning to three miles on good ground should really suit based on his point-to-point successes.
The eight-year-old by Air Chief Marshal looked quite smart when winning a Wincanton juvenile hurdle in 2020 for Paul Nicholls, but he was then put on the sidelines for 770 days.
He looks to have retained that ability, and with his age, one can easily say he’s improved. I fancy him.
6:05 Punchestown – The Yellow Clay @ 13/8 with William Hill – 2pt Win
It’s hard to be confident at these prices with the current run of form, but putting that to one side, The Yellow Clay should win the Grade 1 Alanna Homes Champion Novice Hurdle.
The Turners Novices’ Hurdle turned into a bit of a speed test at Cheltenham, and The New Lion eventually reeled him in on the run to the line.
On that form line, he has Final Demand beat, and I’m not overly sold on Final Demand racing over this distance on a sharper track. He looks like more of a stayer to me.
The Yellow Clay is a stayer for the future as well, but he doesn’t lack gears.
His form with Fleur In The Park, both when beating him by 12 lengths in November and a neck in December, looks stronger now after what he did earlier in the week, and he finished a good second at the course to Redemption Day in a bumper last year.
He should win this, but of course, this is a novice race. A few could improve.
