Right, now that Punchestown is basically over, I think I’m done with the jumps, and that’s a good thing as it’s Newmarket 2000 Guineas Day.
The first Classic of the year is quite competitive, and the surrounding card is very interesting as well.
So, let’s find a winner or two.
Newmarket 2000 Guineas Day Selections
2:20 Newmarket – Dutch Decoy @ 9/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
Dutch Decoy has run in the last two renewals of the Suffolk Stakes, finishing fifth and second on both occasions, but with a lower mark, he has the ability to get his head in front.
He finished second last year to Liberty Lane, a horse who improved 12lbs subsequently, and he was ahead of Torito, who finished third in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next start.
The experienced eight-year-old raced off 90 last year and 88 in 2023, so this rating of 85 is very much workable, even more so when you look at his second to Toimy Son in the Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood off 90.
His last winning mark (July 2023) was 90 as well, and he hasn’t been rated as low as 85 since July 2022. Yes, he is actually 2lbs wrong at the weights after his run at Ripon in April, but that race was purely used for race fitness, one would assume.
The Charlie Johnston yard have started to run into a bit of form, and with this very workable weight at a track he likes, Dutch Decoy could be the one.
2:35 Thirsk – Flight Plan @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places) – 1pt EW
It seems like Karl Burke has worked back from the Thirsk Hunt Cup for Flight Plan, and after a promising comeback run at this track in April, he’s one to consider.
The Night Of Thunder entire has dropped 11lbs since his opening handicap mark of last season, though he still ran creditable races in Group company, notably when behind the likes of Tiber Flow, Poker Face, and See The Fire.
His run over seven furlongs at Thirsk on April 12th was used solely as a preparation race for this, and the handicapper kindly dropped him by 1lb to a mark of 102 for his handicap debut.
For a first run of the season, he showed promise. He sat in his usual prominent position, but even when his rivals passed him, he didn’t exactly fade away. He stuck on.
Stall nine isn’t ideal, but that is probably factored into his price, and he looks like the classic Group/Listed horse lurking in handicap company.
As an each-way proposition, he is rather interesting
2:55 Newmarket – Washington Heights @ 5/1 with Betfred – 1pt Win
The Group 3 Palace House Stakes over the Newmarket five furlongs tends to suit horses who are strong stayers over five/six furlongs, which is why I think Washington Heights can take this.
He’s a horse who goes well fresh, which is positive as the five-year-old by Washington DC is having his first start in 76 days.
Previously, he won last year’s Group 3 Abernant Stakes over six furlongs off a 214-day break, and he finished second in the Dukhan Sprint at Al Uqda in February off a 133-day break.
He does stay six furlongs very well, but he also has smart form over five, notably when finishing sixth, fifth, and seventh in three five-furlong Group 1 contests last season.
That Abernant Stakes success shows he handles the Newmarket dip well, and he beat Mill Stream (Group 1 winner since), Spycatcher (Group 3 winner since), Mitbaahy (Group 2 winner since), Tiber Flow (Group 2 winner since), and Makarova (Group 1 winner since). Yep, that’s a good piece of form.
Kevin Ryan’s yard is in fair form (27% strike rate), so I think Washington Heights is the one to beat here.
3:35 Newmarket – Ruling Court @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
William Buick has chosen Ruling Court in the 2000 Guineas over Shadow Of Light, and this three-year-old by Justify is a horse I’ve liked for a while.
I, among many, was very impressed by his Sandown maiden success in July, and he put nearly six lengths between himself and the now 111-rated Stanhope Gardens.
Although he failed to win the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York, he ran into The Lion In Winter (who set a track record that day) and Wimbledon Hawkeye.
Wimbledon Hawkeye went on to win a Group 3 on his next start before finishing third in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at the end of the season. Field Of Gold did beat him in the Craven, in fairness, but John & Thady Gosden’s hope is priced accordingly.
He was entitled to win the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas at Meydan in March, but that run was still impressive, and it showed he’s trained on nicely from two to three.
On that form line with The Lion In Winter, Ruling Court must have a nice chance.
