Best Of Bets

Tag: racing tips

  • 12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    So, about last week. A story of hard luck.

    The best bet of the week, GET AHEAD, probably saw his best chances diminish when the lashing of rain came down though his sixth behind the runaway winner Vadream was still good and the handicapper has dropped him two pounds for the run. One to watch on better ground.

    And with LITTLE BIG BEAR, the Guineas experiment, plus the fact he was struck into and found to be lame post-race, saw his chances of a Classic disappear as well. A shame, but that is horse racing.

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    Despite that, we kick on into the Chester May Festival that is on ITV this week, and alongside Lingfield Derby and Oaks Trials on Saturday, this week is one to be excited by.

     

    No Bluff with his chances

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    I’m starting with the Chester Cup this week and although it may not be an ante-post play by the time this goes up, it still warrants me putting him up as CALL MY BLUFF at 12/1 is top of my shortlist.

    For starters, he is a proven horse around Chester thanks to his second in the Watergate Cup behind Emiyn last September on good to soft ground and his win at Chester in June 2021 also builds on the idea that he can handle the course well.

    That form on Good to Soft from September is also useful information as it is set to be slow ground throughout the meeting thanks to the rain expected on Thursday and Friday.

    Furthermore, his run last time out behind a Novel Legend, the ante-post favourite for the race who has missed out on a run by one place, reads well as the winner was race-fit coming into the contest while the six-year-old was coming off a 195-day break.

    His trainer, Dominic Ffrench Davis, has a 25% strike rate currently and John Egan, his rider when second at Chester three starts ago, is booked to do the steering.

    Taking that all in, 16/1 is a fair price.

     

    Sweet as a Rose

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    I have just the two horses to highlight this week and I’m going to Lingfield for the Oaks Trial on Saturday for my final fancy as SEA OF ROSES at 5/1 holds lots of interest.

    The field is full of unknowns and this Sea The Moon three-year-old is one of them having finished a good second behind the exciting Pensee Du Jour at the start of April in the Group 3 Prix Penelope.

    That run was very encouraging over 1m2f and she was running well to the wire on soft ground, hopefully meaning the 1m3f on Saturday in worsening conditions should be fine.

    Furthermore, she beat Infinite Cosmos at the backend of last season at Doncaster over a mile, form that looks very good after the Sir Michael Stoute three-year-old bolted up at Newmarket on her next start and is now the 7/1 second favourite.

    The Andrew Balding team like this three-year-old, who is very closely related to Chris Waller’s Group 3 winner Desert Icon, and with the in-form Oisin Murphy set to get the leg-up, SEA OF ROSES is a good play at 5/1.

  • Racing at Sandown: BestBets

    Racing at Sandown: BestBets

    As the Punchestown Festival rounds off in County Kildare, so on Saturday sees one of the final National Hunt racecards of the season at Sandown.

    Headlined by the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase, the Oaksey Chase and another Grade 1 contest are on the menu in the suburbs of the capital.

    With some recent big performers in town looking for a big win to cap the term, who should punters look to?

    So with seven races over the jumps, here are our picks.

     

    13:40: Editeur Du Gite: Celebration Chase, (1m7½f)

    As the first of two Grade 1 races on Saturday, the Celebration Chase kicks off 75 minutes of elite competition as the irrepressible Jonbon will go off the strong favourite.

    However, we can’t but help go back to the appeal of Editeur Du Gite.

    A horse who likes the suburban London tracks, the 9yo’s win at Kempton over Christmas in the Desert Orchid still shines like a beacon.

    Jonbon won here at Sandown on this trip back in December by eight lengths, but will be more sorely tested in a bigger field of better racers – unlike his 43-length romp at Aintree.

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    This looks a really competitive contest with both Rachael Blackmore and Harry Cobden in the field; that should propel Editeur Du Gite to a big race.

    The gelding who toppled both Edwardstone and Energumene on Cheltenham Trials weekend, Niall Houlihan usually gets the best from his mount in a stellar field.

    We feel that should occur again and at 11/2 with Betfred carries ample value.

     

    14:15: Certainly Red: Gold Cup Handicap Chase, (3m4½f)

    In the main event of Saturday, Kittys Light is the understandable favourite after winning the Scottish National at Ayr last weekend.

    However, over the modified trip here, the 7yo of Christian Williams is untested at this distance.

    Instead, for a little more value, Certainly Red‘s more recent form is worthy of merit.

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    Having won three of the last four contests, the Venetian Lad-owned runner was less than impressive last time out at Ascot, but has a win at Sandown this term.

    Though, like Kittys Light, there may be concerns – this time over a few furlongs greater – but has form figures of 241111 over Chase starts.

    Hovering in the region of 10/1 with BoyleSports, Certainly Red and Caoilin Quinn can put on a definitive big-race showing this weekend.

     

    14:50: Hewick: Oaksey Chase, (2m6½f)

    Looking to win on Sandown Gold Cup Day for the second year running, Hewick looks a good bet for the Oaksey.

    Winner of last year’s Gold Cup at 16/1, having sidestepped the Punchestown Gold Cup won sensationally by 28/1 shot Fastorslow, the focus of trainer JJ Hanlon is all on this.

    Also pulled out of Cheltenham due to the ground, this will be Hewick’s first outing since an impressive trip in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    On that day back in March, despite falling late on was prominent and looked set for a top-three finish at another big price.

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    His win in the US National beforehand saw entry for the big one in Gloucestershire and the Irish gelding will be champing at the bit.

    A far shorter shorter price this time around though, could a certain ms. Blackmore get the best from him?

    Hewick is currently 6/5 with BetVictor.

  • 2023 Coral Scottish Grand National: BestBets at Ayr

    2023 Coral Scottish Grand National: BestBets at Ayr

    As National Hunt season winds down, April still has two main acts to play.

    Before the Punchestown Festival begins on Tuesday with five days of Class 1 evening racing in County Kildare, Saturday sees the third National of the month.

    Just as I Am Maximus at Fairyhouse and Corach Rambler rode to victory last weekend at Aintree, Saturday sees Ayr’s turn in the spotlight for the Coral Scottish Grand National.

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    With three fences (27) and 2f less (4m) than its Merseyside sister race, the Scottish National was last year claimed by Rob James on board 13/2 Win My Wings at a canter.

    With 23 runners currently pencilled in for the weekend, who might be prominent in Western Scotland for the £112,000 prize?

    Here are our picks.

     

    Your Own Story

    J: Derek Fox, T: Lucinda Russell

    A narrative dream, could Derek Fox and Lucinda Russell complete a unique National tale with Your Own Story?

    The team who saw Corach Rambler storm to Randox Grand National glory, the duo will buoyant of their chances north of the border.

    Even so, the last horse to win both Scottish and Grand Nationals was Earth Summit in 1994 and victory for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ ride win was a platform to his Aintree win four years later.

    Twiston-Davies was also the last trainer to win both races and has won at Ayr three times – most recently in 2009 with Hello Bud.

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    Here, Lucinda Russell could win her second after Mighty Thunder in 2021.

    Your Own Story has been runner-up four times in seven runs this term, with a winner in last month’s Long Distance Wetherby Handicap.

    With three runs at Ayr to date, a third, fifth and most recently second in the Marlene McPherson, the 7yo is ready to step up.

    Looking to write his own script, Your Own Story is currently 8/1 across the board.

     

    Flash Collonges

    J: Harry Cobden, T: Paul Nicholls

    Well it wasn’t quite Harry Cobden‘s day at Aintree, but could he fare better on board Flash Collonges?

    Having travelled well on Coko Beach last weekend for 3m of the Grand National, Gordon Elliott’s fancied 28/1 8yo was eventually pulled up at the penultimate fence.

    After a superb National Hunt campaign, it feels like Cobden needs one final marquee win to cap his season off and it could come at Ayr.

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    For a trainer in Paul Nicholls who won this race back-to-back in 2017 and 2018 with Vicente – only the third horse to have done so in post-war times – the Gloucestershire native also knows how to come out on top.

    The 8yo of the Gi-Gi Syndicate won last time out at Newbury and his other more recent form reads third and two runners-up spots at Exeter and Chepstow.

    A gelding who has a happy record in Scotland with a prior win in the bet365 Handicap Hurdle at Kelso two years back, Flash Collonges can deliver a trip at a shortening 14/1 with William Hill.

     

    Cap Du Nord

    J: Nick Scholfield, T: Christian Williams

    Looking to win successive Scottish Nationals, Christian Williams has a double shot 12 months on in the form of last year’s runner-up, favourite Kittys Light and Cap Du Nord.

    We are hedging for bigger value with the latter.

    Three years Kittys Light’s senior, the 10yo was an eye-catcher in winning the Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot back in February.

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    His only win of the season and a horse who struggles on the firmer turf, the expected rain to come in Ayr should suit well.

    A gelding who will prefer the tackier ground, he won last year’s National Trial at Kempton in the Coral Trophy, when, conveniently, Cap Du Nord beat his rival stablemate at 11/2

    Having ridden just once on Scottish soil in March 2021 when pulled-up, Cap’ will be looking for better favour and has the pedigree to impress.

    Can be snagged at 18/1 with most bookies.

     

    Half Shot

    J: Conor O’Farrell, T: Iain Jardine

    Finally, if you are after a big-price punt, Half Shot might be one to consider given his good form in the land of the Saltire.

    With two wins in six outings this term, Iain Jardine has trained his 9yo to runners-up spot in the last three races – twice at Kelso.

    Having won a Handicap at Perth almost a year to the day, two victories on Scottish shores is a promising history to come into this contest with.

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    Carrying less into this race, this is still a big step-up in trip having going over 3m just one time before – his last outing at Kelso.

    Nevertheless, if he does travel well, he could catch a few off guard.

    Unlike his handicap here, at a weighty 40/1 with Betfred, Half Shot may not have his glass half-full this weekend.

  • 14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    This weekend sees us go from Aintree to Ayr as we turn our attention to a Scottish rendition of the Grand National, a race brilliantly won last year by Christian Williams’ Win My Wings.

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    After the high-drama issues and performances both on and off the track over the weekend at horse racing’s biggest singular day, the Scottish Grand National homes into view to draw our attention away from the regular debates occurring between us and those of an opposing view.

    With that being said, I have three horses at 6/1, 14/1, and 14/1 to highlight for BestofBets.com that are set to run in Scotland on Saturday.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    Sailing to success

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    My first fancy for the weekend comes in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase and I’ll be taking a swing at Dan Skelton’s SAIL AWAY at 6/1 to continue his progression.

    Having finished second when giving six pounds away to the future two-time Ultima winner and Grand National successor, Corach Rambler, in October 2021, this gallant grey looks like he’ll relish a good three miles at a course that promotes precise jumping, something Sail Away has locked down.

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    When receiving his correct conditions of better ground and three miles, the Martaline gelding has finished second to Dusart in a novice chase at Leicester, third in a competitive handicap chase at Aintree, and easily won a three-runner Warwick contest.

    His second to Jetoile last time out reads well considering it was over the wrong distance on slow ground and that run last month should have him 100% for Ayr on Saturday.

    At 6/1, taking into account the horses he has run into and the performances he has consistently been putting in for nearly two years, Sail Away looks like a solid proposition in the second race of the day.

     

    The former champion is back

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    I’m going to the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2:25 for the second ante-post fancy of the weekend and it looks to be a very competitive field thanks to Colonel Mustard, Nemean Lion, and Iceo.

    Before I give my fancy, I think ANNA BUNINA at 8/1 has got a good chance. She has constantly been improving from her win in this race last year and back on better ground, her form with Gaelic Warrior and Queens Brook reads well off a mark of 142.

    However, it’s the 2021 champion MILKWOOD who gets the nod from me at 14/1.

    He pulled up on his last start in the County Hurdle on ground that wouldn’t have been too favourable and with the surface set to be quick enough on Saturday, he should get his correct conditions.

    Neil Mulholland’s nine-year-old won this race two years ago off a four-pound higher mark and was a not-too-distant fifth in the 2022 renewal of the contest off a 12-pound higher mark.

    He has been performing well this season and looked to be going well in the competitive Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May before falling two-out, so at a course he seems to thrive off, on ground that will be suitable, and with a workable handicap mark, 14/1 seems a reasonable price for this former winner.

     

    A Steel of a price

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    And finally, following his victory over Coral Gold Cup victor Le Milos last time out, EMPIRE STEEL is the horse for me in the feature race of the weekend, the Scottish Grand National, at 14/1.

    I always thought this horse was waiting to land a big handicap event so to see him win a Listed race when beating the Dan Skelton runner at Kelso when seven pounds wrong at the weights was surprising, however, the handicapper has potentially let him off with one by only raising him four pounds for the effort.

    This gallant grey was second to the useful Potterman in March 2022 off a one-pound higher mark in a race that was run over 3m2f on good ground; he kept on at the finish that day which shows promise that he could handle a marathon trip on decent ground.

    Furthermore, not too long ago, this nine-year-old beat Protektorat in a novice chase at Kelso in the same year that he fell at the fourth-last in the 2021 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby when clearly going the best.

    Empire Steel is in the best form of his life and off a mark of 145, he is capable of producing a career-best effort when he needs it the most.

  • 2023 Randox Grand National: BestBets

    2023 Randox Grand National: BestBets

    So here we go again. The most famous Steeplechase – nay horse race – on the planet: Ladies and gentlemen, the 2023 Randox Grand National.

    A race that officially stretches back to 1839, the single-biggest test of equine endurance over 4m2½f brings even the rarest of punters to the table.

    In the last decade especially, the National continues year-on-year to find a big-price winner, with the shortest in 2019 when the mighty Tiger Roll defended the crown as 4/1f.

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    Currently one of just two horses to win back-to-back Nationals – the great Red Rum being the other – Noble Yeats could become the third this year.

    Carrying greater weight here however, staying the trip could be an issue.

    So, of the 40 runners currently penned for the start line, we’ve picked six names that could go well in Saturday’s big race at varying prices.

     

    Delta Work

    Corach Rambler is perhaps rightly set to go off as this year’s favourite after defending the Ultima but at the top end of the market, Delta Work appears ready to challenge also.

    Adorning the famous Gordon Elliott colours, many predicted this horse to follow in the hooves of stablemate Tiger Roll last year, but could only finish third.

    A year wiser however, the 10yo has now leapfrogged the defending Noble Yeats into second favourite in the betting.

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    Commanding in the Cross Country at Cheltenham for a second year last month, Delta Work continues to shorten in the markets.

    The softer turf this year should suit one of the best stayers around down to the ground.

    In his first outing with Delta Work, jockey Keith Donohue was the perfect foil and the duo have every chance, now at 8/1 with BoyleSports.

     

    Any Second Now

    Marginally longer in price, will it be third time lucky for Mark Walsh and Any Second Now?

    After picking up a win with the ever-improving Zenta in the Jewson on Thursday, the colours of JP McManus appear in fine fettle.

    Twelve months on from being sensationally nosed out in 2022, some are talking up the chances of revenge for the son of Oscar.

    And to say both Walsh and this plucky 11yo have unfinished Grand National business is an understatement.

    Two trips may be enough for some but not this horse.

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    Third to the sensational Rachael Blackmore and Minella Times in 2021 also, his record reads 3rd and 2nd for the last two Nationals.

    One needn’t be a mathematician to work out what comes next in a cumulative sequence, but will it finally be glory this year?

    Now at a higher ranking and with a bigger handicap, he could suffer over the final furlongs but nevertheless, you could have FAR worse 18/1 punts with William Hill.

     

    Our Power

    After a late withdrawal from the Ultima at Cheltenham, could it be Our Power to make it three wins-in-a-row and in spectacular fashion?

    Set to drop in to Gloucestershire fresh from wins in the London Gold Cup and Coral Trophy, his absence from the Festival last month could easily be forgotten here.

    Set to run in not only an Aintree but National debut, the Sam Thomas-owned gelding was a real stayer last time out at Kempton.

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    With Sam Twiston-Davis in the saddle, father Nigel looks for his third victory in this race following Earth Summit in 1998 and 20/1 Bindaree four years later.

    Twiston-Davis Jr has been bullish of his ride’s chances and stated in his William Hill Blog that not only had he ‘schooled well over the fences’ but believes Our Power a ‘thorough stayer’.

    It would be hard to refute that claim and at 20/1 with PariMatch, represents real potential value.

     

    Coko Beach

    Meanwhile, a name tipped up heavily by ITV Racing’s Mark Johnson, might Coko Beach grab a fifth career win?

    Eighth in the National last year, Harry Cobden is now confirmed to be on board for the first time; that is huge to the French gelding’s hopes.

    Before arriving at Punchestown last time out, the 8yo had yet to give Gordon Elliott a win since switching from Denise Foster in October 2021.

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    However, finally, Coko Beach beach delivered in some style in winning the QuinnBet Handicap Trial two months ago.

    For many, a corner had been turned but this will be the litmus test.

    But with Cobden now in tow, Coko Beach looks a shrewd punt.

    Indeed, at 33/1 with 888Sport, here, Elliott has another decent alternative shot at a fourth National win.

     

    Sam Brown

    What of the fellow old guard in this year’s running?

    Sam Brown might be poised to run a big race.

    Returning to the Mildmay course for the second time this season, the 11yo was fifth out a field of six in the Many Clouds, but won the Betway Handicap 12 months back at a banging 28/1.

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    In what will be his fourth run at Aintree, trainer Anthony Honeyball saw his ride make a strong fist of things at Uttoxeter last time out.

    A career highlighted by five wins in his first six, last year’s victory was a rare heyday for the old boy but can again rise to the occasion here.

    A full and weighty 66/1 with BetUK.

     

    Fortescue

    The second of two bigger price picks and the final of our sextet, Fortescue will be looking to make greater inroads in his own second National trip.

    Any horse that was unseated last year might be unlikely to make the grade for a punter, but the signs are there that 2023 could be different.

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    Harry Nugent placed in fourth on his return trip to Aintree in the Becher in December – having also done so in three of four contests this term.

    Every dog – or horse – has his day and as Fortescue proved in the Swinley Chase at Ascot last year, there is very much a show in this 9yo.

    At the very least a decent shot to place – with some bookies up to seven places – 50/1 with BetVictor is another name that appeals greatly.

  • 2023 Randox Grand National Festival: BestBets at Aintree

    2023 Randox Grand National Festival: BestBets at Aintree

    With this year’s scintillating BoyleSports Irish Grand National in the books, attention now turns to Aintree and Saturday’s big one: the 2023 Randox Grand National.

    If the spectacle of the most famous horse race in the world was not enough, the coming three days in Liverpool will also see some big-names turning out.

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    Before we turn our attention to the National later in the week then, who is set to star across the 21 races from Thursday?

    Here at BestofBets, we’ve again been tirelessly studying the form and have come up with another Festival four.

     

    Scriptwriter (Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle, Thursday, 14:20, 2m1f)

    For our first trick, we are more than a little torn over in the Jewson, but whilst Zenta is a big pull, Willie Mullins’ ride remains something of an uncertainty.

    At a bigger price, it is Scriptwriter that gets the nod.

    Being pulled out of the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, it was a very game Zenta who then pushed Paul Townend and Lossiemouth for third spot.

    Now however, could be the time for Scriptwriter to leap back into the headlines.

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    Having lost to Comfort Zone on Trials weekend in prep for that particular Festival, this will be the first outing for Milton Harris’ ride since flopping at Kempton in February.

    Make make no mistake though, this gelding can still go.

    Indeed, his triple success at Sedgefield, Cheltenham and Wolverhampton earlier this season shouldn’t be forgotten.

    Scriptwriter’s favoured trip is clearly over this distance and at 17/2 with William Hill, he could be a punter pleaser.

     

    Constitution Hill (William Hill Aintree Hurdle, Thursday, 3:30, 2m4f)

    Whilst speculation continues to mount that a switch to the flat could be in the offing, for the meantime, we all get the see the wonder that is Constitution Hill for one final time this season over the jumps.

    By now, this majestic 6yo has become as sure a thing as ice turning into water and Chelsea signing a player to a seven-year deal.

    Unbeaten in six races under rules, the last time we saw Constitution Hill was when he failed to win a race by at least 10 lengths for the first time.

    Shocking.

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    A sixth win on the bounce and a second win at Cheltenham in the Champion Hurdle further cemented his growing reputation as a potential legend of the sport.

    In his eighth career outing here, Nicky Henderson hands Constitution Hill an Aintree debut against defending champion Epatante – having beaten the daughter of No Risk At All twice already this term.

    From a betting point of view, however, Nico De Boinville will jump on board at probably the shortest price in his racing career.

    A best of 1/6 with BoyleSports, do with that what you will.

     

    Fugitif (Marsh Chase, Friday, 15:30, 2m4f)

    Focus then moves to Friday’s Marsh Chase and after three successive runners-up finishes at Cheltenham, Fugitif ticks our Aintree betslip.

    Second to Seddon in the Magners Plate at 11/1, the 8yo was again the bridesmaid on Trials weekend to Il Ridoto.

    The victor at Chepstow over Christmas however, the French gelding has now given trainer Richard Jobson four wins.

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    This season has been stellar for Fugitif, so could he cap it off in style?

    Eighth on his last visit to Aintree in the Red Rum Handicap Chase 12 months ago over the same distance, having travelled well all term, Fugitif, at an 8/1 shot with BetUK looks set to impress.

     

    Tahmuras (Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle, Saturday, 15:00, 2m4f)

    Whilst the majority of Saturday’s eyes will be on the National, the three races prior to the biggie are set to form the perfect matinee entertainment.

    In the Turners’ Mersey Hurdle Tahmuras may have just slid off punters’ radars.

    Coming home 10th in the SkyBet Supreme having attracted a lot of attention in the build-up, last month was not the day for Paul Nicholls and the son of Falco.

    However, having won five of his other six races, the 6yo should be looked at here.

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    With perhaps the hottest National Hunt jockey in Harry Cobden returning for his mount, the duo won on their last trip to Merseyside last November.

    That, was then swiftly followed by a fairly comfortable win in the Tolworth at the beginning of the year.

    With a cautionary note this is his first outing over the longer trip since a debut win in May 2021, Tahmuras should be screaming his intentions loudly to Aintree punters.

    Another 8/1 shot with Betfred.

  • Lincoln Handicap Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Lincoln Handicap Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Hello all!

    For those of you who may have missed this, I began writing for BestofBets just before and during the Cheltenham Festival, and having put on a flawless display of handicap fancies throughout the week (they all lost), Bestofbets has brought me back to redeem myself with my weekly column previewing the weekend’s racing from an ante-post perspective.

    Now, in my defense, four of the horses picked up each-way money with online bookmakers, but still, a disappointing effort nonetheless at jump racing’s Olympics.

    And what a week to bring me back as it’s the start of the flat season proper with Doncaster’s Lincoln Handicap taking centre stage.

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    I can’t wait for the flat season, not because I hate the jumps (I am actually a jumps man through and through), but as with every new season, the excitement of seeing what these horses can do on the big stage is a feeling that can’t quite be described.

    So, without any more delay, here are three horses I’m keen on for the Lincoln weekend beginning Saturday, April 1st.

     

    Quick into stride

    HORSE: Fast Response

    RACE: Pertemps Network Cammidge Trophy Stakes (3:00 Doncaster)

    PRICE: 14/1 with William Hill

    It’s only taken me until the third race of the turf season to nail my colours to the mast and those colours happen to be the black and white of Nick Bradley Racing as FAST RESPONSE is of good interest to me.

    The four-year-old Fast Company offspring is one of three fillies in the line-up, so she receives a five-pound allowance from the boys, however, having won a Listed race after August 31st, 2022, she has a three-pound penalty on top of that.

    Looking closer at her last run, she was very good on heavy ground over course and distance to win by two lengths.

    She was officially nine pounds wrong at the weights the third, Art Power, and 12 pounds wrong with Commanche Falls, the fifth who reappears here, because of her three-year-old and fillies allowances.

    She has yet to lose on ground slower than soft from her four runs in the conditions with one of those occurring on just her second start, a Winsdor maiden over six furlongs when she beat El Bodegon, now trained by Chris Waller, who was a Grade 1-winning juvenile.

    All form points to her and at 14/1, I will be siding with her.

     

    For King and country in the feature

    HORSE: Saga

    RACE: Pertemps Network Lincoln Handicap (3:35 Doncaster)

    PRICE: 14/1 with William Hill

    John & Thady Gosden’s SAGA is a horse I have had a mixed relationship with over the last season as I was an unfortunate backer of his when he was second by a head in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot last year.

    It maybe wasn’t Frankie Dettori’s finest ride that day, but he was still brandished with an eight-pound hike in the weights for his next run, the Porsche Handicap, where he was eighth.

    Following a mediocre Clipper Logistics run and a promising run behind Algiers, the now Dubai World Cup runner-up, at York in October, the four-year-old is now down to a mark of 102 and has the brilliant Benoit De La Sayette claiming three pounds off his back, so on Saturday, he will effectively only be two pounds higher than his Royal Ascot second.

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    The softer conditions at Doncaster for the Lincoln may not be to his absolute liking, but the team at Clarehaven Stables in Newmarket has given him a gelding operation over the winter and his form from last season to run into three eventual Guineas winners in Maljoom, Coroebus, and Modern Games reads very well.

    I’ll be in his camp for the feature.

    However, and this is a big however, if ISLA KAI gets into the race (he currently needs nine to come out ahead of him to get a run) then I will also be backing him.

    He loves softer conditions and is down to a mark of 92 – he is good first time out and if he gets a run, 40/1 is massive about this Nigel Tinkler five-year-old.

    If he doesn’t get a run, he will most likely take in the Spring Mile (the Lincoln consolation race) earlier on the card and I will be backing him for that race as soon as markets open after declarations.

     

    All-weather action

    HORSE: Sleeping Lion

    RACE: Racing TV Queen’s Prize Handicap (3:15 Kempton)

    PRICE: 12/1

    My final thoughts come from the decent action at Kempton on the all-weather and SLEEPING LION looks to have a good chance off a mark of 99.

    This eight-year-old beat Roberto Escobar, Nayef Road, and Earlofthecotswolds last year in an All-Weather Championship Qualifier over course and distance when wrong at the weights with Nayef Road by nine pounds and Roberto Escobar by five pounds.

    Harry & Roger Charlton’s gelding had a good reappearance at Kempton last month to blow the cobwebs off when he wasn’t fancied so back into handicap company off 99, I think he has the chance of running a big race.

  • Tips: Four To Follow

    Tips: Four To Follow

    Oliver Holmes brings Best of Bets’ a brand-new weekend tipping column, where he picks four horses from across the racing action each Saturday. Today, he’s going all over the world to bring you four horses, from the four biggest meetings.

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    14:40 – Newbury – Royale Dance @ 17/2 (Betfair, BetVictor)

    This Mares’ Novice Handicap Hurdle is always a tough race to find a winner, but Harry and Dan Skelton are always one to be with for the big races on Saturday. They run Royale Dance, who has never finished outside the top two in her career. The winner of her last race finished second by a head on her next start. She’s only been put up four pounds, and in the context of the race she looks a really good bet at 17/2 with Betfair and BetVictor.

    15:00 – Kelso – Bonttay @ 9/4 (BetUK)

    Another Mares’ Handicap Hurdle, but it seems a little simpler with Bonttay at the top of the shop. Better ground than soft seems to suit her, as does a two-mile trip. The cheekpieces are on for the first time, to help her jumping. Given that it is a two-mile trip, and given her past and the cheeckpieces now, she should class the field. Give a mention to the trainer Fergal O’Brien who’s had a magnificent season, and does well with first time headgear. The favourite’s best price is 9/4 with BetUk. Walk of No Shame also makes each-way appeal for the O’Neills at 11/1 with BetVictor.

    15:25 – Curragh – Comfort Line @ 18/1 (William Hill)

    The current ground over in Ireland is soft to heavy, which opens the race wide open. Low draws are favoured over the mile trip at the Curragh. Occupying an inside stall is Comfort Line, running for Adrian McGuinness for the first time. Last season he came second from an extremely high stall off a mark of 84, with a claimer taking 7lbs off. He’s now at a mark of 85, and there’s form for him over soft/heavy ground. It looks like there could be a winner at a price for this year’s renewal and Comfort Line is 18/1 with William Hill. Look out for Current Option and Maud Gonne Spirit for each-way selections.

    16:45 – Meydan – Vela Azul @ 11/1 (Boylesports, BetUK)

    The Japanese have had a stellar Winter in the big races, notably winning the Saudi Cup with Panthalassa. But it’s Vela Azul, who is the best rated horse in the Dubai World Cup at 122. He came 10th on Christmas Day, losing to the supremely talented Equinox. The drop down in trip should suit him better. But he is a Grade One winner, beating the talked up Shahryar in the Japan Cup last November. Best rated horses are worth a try at a big price, and Vela Azul is 11/1 with BetUK and Boylesports.

    I’m also very sweet on another Japanese horse in the feature race in Dubai, Geoglyph. The trend shows that four- and five-year-olds have a very good record in the race, and Geoglyph is the highest rated out of all the younger horses in the race. He came fourth in the Saudi Cup, and didn’t lose by much. His best form comes over 10 furlongs, and beat Equinox last April. He’s drawn right in the middle, so should be an interesting each-way angle at 14/1 generally.

  • Henry de Bromhead glory at Cheltenham Festival

    Henry de Bromhead glory at Cheltenham Festival

    Three is the magic number for Envoi Allen as the nine-year-old comfortably took the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival for Henry de Bromhead.

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    The former Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Bumper winner had finished 51 lengths behind Bravemansgame in the King George at Christmas, however, the fan-favourite bounced back to form on Thursday to take secure his eighth Grade 1 contest.

    The victory gave trainer de Bromhead his third winner of the week following success with Honeysuckle on day one and Maskada on day two.

    “I kept saying it to Richard (Thompson, owner) that he was good as he was before going to Kempton (for the King George) and I was really happy with him but he just never showed up,” explained the Gold Cup-winning trainer.

    “I had three, A Plus Tard, himself, and Arctic Bresil that came over here (earlier in the season) and they were all disappointing, but he was in such good form at home (ahead of today) and everyone was delighted with him – I was hoping he would put his best foot forward and he duly did.”

    The future is still very much open as to what they do with Envoi Allen next, as he continued: “I’m not sure what we do – he stayed three miles and the Gold Cup is the race. I’d say if A Plus Tard wasn’t in it, he would have possibly run in it, but we will see what we do next and just enjoy today.”

    The day of surprises continued into the following race as two-time Cheltenham Festival winner Sire Du Berlais returned to his glorious self and won the Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle.

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    He beat Dashel Drasher by just under a length, however, the placings between the second and third were reversed after the stewards’ deemed there to have been an interference between the third-placed Teahupoo, who went off as the 9/4 favourite.

    “We were kind of training him for the Pertemps but he came over here to qualify and for some reason, he didn’t run,” said owner JP McManus. “I don’t think he travelled over well or something so Gordon didn’t run him and as a result, he has ended up in the Stayers’ Hurdle. I thought he had a little chance.

    “I’ve not had too many 33/1 winners old but old Creon (2004 Pertemps Final 50/1) won at a big price and Kadoun (2006 Pertemps Final 50/1) but this one I’m afraid went unbacked but still we will just enjoy it just the same.

    “You better ask somebody else why he is so good around Cheltenham and Gordon has done some job on him.”

    Despite a 5-2 thrashing from the Irish on the day, British champion trainer Paul Nicholls began the day in flying form by landing the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase with Stage Star for the Owners Group and jockey Harry Cobden.

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    The success was Nicholls’ first win in three renewals of the Festival and he enjoyed every minute of the race, as he said: “We’ve had a great time here over the years but it is hard to get those horses back but we are building them up again.

    “We have got heaps like him to come through and I think the next few years will be positive. It is hard to win here and we haven’t got the numbers the Irish trainers have and we are up against it all the time but we can only do our best.

    “I thought travelling into the straight he was going well and I knew what Harry (Cobden) was doing but to go and win like that from a horse that we started in bumpers, which is a new thing we do to bring horses through, was fantastic. It is good for everybody at home and Harry.

    “He will be aiming for the Ryanair next year and that is what I’ve always thought – he would get three miles but he has got plenty of boot and he jumps well – but I was always hoping he might be a Ryanair horse after his last run but he had to win today to be a Ryanair horse.”

    The only other British winner on the day came through Jamie Snowden’s You Wear It Well in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, a horse that Snowden admitted he was looking forward to running and she duly obliged for connections.

    A tilt at the Mares’ Hurdle next year could be on the cards, as he said: “We have followed the Love Envoi route so far, Honeysuckle is retiring, and she is going to want a trip.

    “She will jump a fence in time – she jumps great – but we will enjoy today and see where we go.”

  • Cheltenham Festival: Day three handicaps

    Cheltenham Festival: Day three handicaps

    We are past the halfway stage and Ash Symonds has taken a look at the three handicap races on the Thursday of the Cheltenham Festival for Bestofbets.

    THURSDAY – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

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    I’m with the British in this race as I think Nicky Henderson could be starting off the day extremely well.

    WALKING ON AIR (10/1) was my Ballymore horse last season from an ante-post perspective before being ruled out of the race – a disappointment at Aintree at the end of the season and two further poor performances in December this season had me questioning whether he was as good as I once thought.

    However, his victory in a Pertemps Qualifier at Exeter on his last run was extremely good – Nico de Boinville was virtually hands-and-heels on him after the last and the handicapper has only given him a five-pound penalty, a lenient one in my books, so I think he could be one to look forward to next season, and he has a great chance in this year’s Pertemps.

    I’d also give a small shout to LEVEL NEVERENDING and HECTOR JAVILEX at two bigger prices.

    The former is 20/1 with William Hill and was a good staying-on third at Warwick in the Pertemps Qualifier and was just behind Perceval Legallois in a 2m4f maiden hurdle 11 months ago, some people’s idea of the winner in this race before connections decided not to declare him.

    As for the latter, he bolted up over course and distance on soft ground on New Year’s Day and got himself qualified by finishing fourth last time out – Charlie Longsdon thinks this is his best chance of the week and he could hit the frame at 16/1 with William Hill.

    THURSDAY – Plate Handicap Chase

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    We move on to one of my favourite handicap races of the week, the Festival Plate Handicap Chase.

    I have just one Irish horse on my radar this year and it’s MARVEL DE CERISY at 16/1 with William Hill.

    This six-year-old is one of the most unexposed horses in the line-up if you can forgive his 47-length defeat at Fairyhouse in December, he has to be right there.

    He started the calendar year of 2022 by finishing second in a big field maiden hurdle to the now 149-rated Meet And Greet by three lengths before bolting up by 19 lengths on his next start.

    On his first start over fences, he was set to be the runner-up to Impervious at Wexford on heavy ground before falling at the last, something he quickly put behind him by gliding home on his next start to beat the nifty Aarons Day.

    If he can bounce back at a distance he seems to relish, he can be very competitive off 142 for Henry de Bromhead having been given a break of 85 days to freshen him up.

    THURSDAY – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

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    There’s a horse at the top of the market I like for the Kim Muir, and it’s my first Willie Mullins horse.

    I will be taking a chance on MR INCREDIBLE off top weight as I believe he is one of the most unexposed horses in the line-up.

    He has had a weird season so far having been brought down in the Paddy Power Chase when well-backed to 7/1 at the fifth fence two starts ago – before that, he pulled himself up at Tramore in April and refused to race in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase in December 2021.

    However, on his most recent start in the Warwick Classic Chase, he was staying on extremely well behind Iwilldoit and finished just three lengths away off a mark of 142 – now rated 145, Mullins believes he could be a Grand National horse, and if they decide to send him to the Kim Muir, he will be a horse carrying my money.