Best Of Bets

Tag: newmarket

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend and the Cesarewitch. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    It’s Not Winter Yet

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    3:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (GROUP ONE) – The Lion In Winter @ 10/11 (General)

    I was incredibly taken when seeing him last time out in the Acomb Stakes at York. It’s never really known as a trial race, but sometimes it is used before races like the Champagne Stakes or the National in Ireland. The Lion In Winter has been given a good break since then, and the form has worked out perfectly. Steady on with backing him for the 2000 Guineas yet, but I feel he has this race in the bag.

     

    And Are We?

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    3:40 – Ceasrewitch Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ndaawi @ 12/1 (General)

    An incredibly competitive handicap, but my main pick has been let off lightly. Ndaawi ran an impressive second to Nurburgring in the Galway hurdle, but is down a pound for running seventh in the Ascot Stakes on ground he didn’t like. With ground like this in the Autumn, he can make the light weight on his back work. Jumps trainers are getting an ever increasing affection for this race, like Willie and Emmet Mullins, etc.

    Talking of the latter, Jacovec Cavern represents one of the fancier being backed for the race. He finished close up to Busselton at the Galway Festival, which is often a great pointer to the latter Autumn marathons. He’s only been risen three pounds for his close run back in July and as a result is right down the weights. Hayley Turner can deliver on a big day and make it back-t-back wins in the race for E. Mullins at 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred).

    One who is surprisingly well-in on the handicap is Premiere Ligne. He’s been incredibly consistent all season, with one win and five places to his name, four of them seconds. He hasn’t been beaten by more than two lengths in his previous six runs and comes from the Cesarewitch Trial. An even bigger plus is the five pounds been taken off by an in-form claimer. Great each-way price at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    Strike It Hot

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    2:40 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Strike Red @ 13/2 (Betfred)

    A surprisingly disappointing season for Strike Red. He has only finished in the places once, but hasn’t had anything to show for last season’s performance. However, he loves York. One win and one place in four runs at the track shows that he isn’t bad. He also performs late on in his season, with four of his career wins coming in either September or October. He’ll love the soft ground and should finally get his elusive win. He also won this race in 2022 off a pound lower mark.

    The Bell Conductor may have most of his wins over five furlongs, but shaped well when winning over six at Chester last time out. He has a clear preference for soft ground and has progressed well enough to this level. He’s only been raised two pounds for the run and has a nice draw towards the stand side, which usually is a slight bias on soft ground. Well worth 25/1 (General).

    Hyperfocus is also one not to discount. It was a similar story last year when he finished second, despite the long odds, and history might repeat itself. Plus the softer it is for him, the better. He has won twice this season, albeit at class four level, but it shows that the 10 year-old has some fight in him left, and fought for second off a three pound higher mark last year. I’m not abandoning him at 33/1 (General).

     

    Chepstow

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    Beach Baby

    2:45 – Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Springwell Bay @ 7/2 (General)

    It seemed the natural progression for Springwell Bay to go over the bigger obstacles after a great season. The former staying hurdler drops back in trip, but should progress further in time. Another benefit is having Jonjo (& AJ) O’Neill as the trainer, with Jonjo, in the last five seasons, one of the more prolific trainers in Monmouthshire. Good pedigree for fences, he should be perfect first time out in the Autumn.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    A Magical Dance

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    3:35 – Fillies’ Mile (GROUP ONE) – Ballet Slippers @ 14/1 (General)

    Writing this, I am still racking my brains over why Ryan Moore has ditched Ballet Slippers in favour of January. Ballet Slippers has soft ground form, which could be useful at this time of year. She’s bred magnificently out of the champion Magical and by super sire Dubawi, and her pedigree is top notch. And the form from her Ascot maiden has been franked when the second went and won last week at Haydock. She has the perfect blueprint to win this race and is an unbelievable price.

     

    York

    Who Are Ya?

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    2:40 – William Hill Finale Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Who’s Glen @ 13/2 (General)

    This small field looks a bit competitive, and I think I’ve spotted some value. Who’s Glen ran a very long way clear of a similar distance at Chester last time out, and won by 14 lengths. The handicapper has given him a fair weight to carry. He’s also trained by York’s current top trainer, Andrew Balding, who is currently +30 to £1 this season. An incredible record and has the beating of the top two in the market.

     

    Chepstow

    Blast Off

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    3:15 – Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ryan’s Rocket @ 2/1 (General)

    At long last, the jumps are finally back! With a tricky little contest to get us underway. With no Paul Nicholls featuring, the winner could come from anywhere. But I think Ryan’s Rocket has every right to be favourite. He’s got plenty of form in the book, particularly from his maiden win at Taunton. He’s a half-brother to former Fergal O’Brien hurdler Greenlagh Girl, who is now a stayer of point-to-points. The only way is up for this exciting gelding.

     

    The Best Boy

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    3:50 – Unibet Veterans’ H’cap Chase – Good Boy Bobby @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    We love the old boys do their thing in these veterans’ chases. And one horse looks primed for this opening bout. Good Boy Bobby won this race off a pound lower mark last year, so is well-handicapped. His record fresh is seven from 12, and his record in October is four from six. To make that even more impressive, he’s unbeaten at the track in his three starts. Not just a good boy, but a good bet.

    Another Chepstow lover is Wayfinder. In 2022, he completed a hattrick at the track, and has since not been able to replicate that form. But he still boasts a four wins from nine starts record, which also includes two seconds. He has a decent record fresh and acts well early on in the season. Still a bit of value at 13/2 (William Hill).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – A Trés French Weekend

    Four To Follow – A Trés French Weekend

    It’s a big weekend for Europe as all eyes train to France for a plethora of French Group One’s, culminating in tomorrow’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Today there’s not just two Group One’s in France, but one at Newmarket. Plus big handicap action at Ascot. Plenty of action on a busy Saturday.

     

    Longchamp

    King Of Europe

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    1:33 – Prix du Cadran (GROUP ONE) – Kyprios @ 4/11 (BetVictor)

    There’s only one horse to consider. It’s just a question of name the distance, given that Kyprios won the Cadran by 20 lengths when he won the race in 2022. William Hill will pay 3/1 for Kyprios to win over five lengths and that seems like a better bet than just an outright win for one of Europe’s top stayers.

    If you fancy the forecast, Trueshan makes a lot of sense. Despite only winning the Listed Coral-Marathon this year, Trueshan has won the Cadran twice in the last three years. He’s capable at the distance and soft ground suits him to a ‘T’.

     

    Vive La France

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    4:00 – Prix de Royallieu (GROUP ONE) – Caius Chorister @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Despite training in West Sussex, David Menusier is as French as they come. Which is why he’s targeted his star filly to win in his native country. Caius Chorister came close to winning two Group Three’s at the start of the season and ran a good race at Chester last time out. She won over the same distance on similar ground last season at Saint-Cloud and has been targeted at this race by the trainer. It looks a weak Group One on paper and Caius Chorister possess a lot of talent.

     

    Newmarket

    French Fever

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    2:40 – Sun Chariot Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Tamfana @ 9/4 (General)

    Surface matters at this stage in the season, which, for me, rules out Inspiral and Nashwa who like firmer conditions. Tamfana could make it a big weekend for Mr Menusier. She dominantly won the Group Three Atalanta last time out, and the second, Doha, won yesterday so the form back up. She’s raced behind Sosie, who won next time out too and looks to be a Group One winner in the making.

     

    Ascot

    A Bit More European

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    3:35 – Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Germanic @ 6/1 (General)

    Three-year-olds do seem to perform better towards the end of the season in handicaps. Particularly if there a couple of pounds well-in on the handicap. Germanic is exactly that. He comes into this race two pounds well-in after finishing a close third to Telemark at Doncaster last time out. It’s clear he can handle soft ground which is another plus for him and can produce a similar run off an advantageous mark.

    Another horse off an advantageous mark is Golden Mind, who finished within a neck to Telemark in the same race. It’s clear he can handle both trip and distance and Northern trainers have a decent record in this race with David O’Meara and David Barron winning for the North in the last four renewals. Richard Fahey will be eager to add his name. 10/1 (General).

    One at a price to be considered is Popmaster. Despite a winless season, he’s only raced in one handicap this season. Clearly he isn’t a strong horse at Group level, but dropped from a Group Three could work out. Plus he finished a neck down in the same contest last year and is two pounds lower from that. He looks very overpriced at 20/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Three – Four To Follow

    Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Three – Four To Follow

    It’s a busy weekend full of competitive two-year-old action, all culminating in the big Cambridgeshire handicap. Today is the feature day, with two Group One’s for the two-year-olds and the big handicap of the week, the Cambridgeshire.

     

    Marionette Man

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    1:50 – Royal Lodge Stakes (Group Two) – Puppet Master @ 4/1 (General)

    There’s plenty to like about Puppet Master in the Royal Lodge. The first being is that Ryan Moore, unsurprisingly, rode out of his skin yesterday winning the first three races. Secondly, he dominated in his maiden win at Galway winning by four lengths on soft ground.

    Furthermore, the form from his debut at Killarney has backed up after the winner won at Deauville and has a great chance in the 3:45 at The Curragh today. He’s also closely related to True Cyan, a winner on this card in the Blandford maiden 12 months ago. Surprised he isn’t shorter for this contest.

    Law Of Design makes great appeal at an each-way price after winning over seven furlongs at Ascot last time out on testing ground. The form has worked out, with the second winning at Newcastle this week. He has a bit of black-type in his pedigree and is bred by an interesting sire in Arc winner Sottsass. Worth backing at 12/1 (William Hill).

     

    French Fancies

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    2:25 – Cheveley Park Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Daylight @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    I have doubts about the favourites. Babouche, whilst can handle the distance and a proven Group One winner has big question marks over the ground. Despite being a sister to the very talented, and soft-loving, Zarinsk, we haven’t yet seen the versatility of surface from her three runs so far.

    As for Lake Victoria, I have questions as to why she’s stepping down in trip. Aidan O’Brien has been quoted saying they’ve had this race in their minds before the Moyglare. But after winning that, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to drop her down before either the Prix Marcel Boussac or the Fillies’ Mile.

    But, if there’s one type of horse to have on your side, in these conditions, it’s a Frenchie. And today we just have that. Daylight rather dominated a Group Three at Deauville, going clear inside the final furlong to assert. She wasn’t disgraced into third behind Whistlejacket and Rashabar, and the Prix Morny can act as the form race to either the Cheveley or Middle Park Stakes. She’ll be used to the ground, unlike the two other favourites.

     

    Grab Your Coat

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    3:00 – Middle Park Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Whistlejacket @ 8/11 (General)

    A trend that still holds up in this race is the winner of the Prix Morny wins this. Perfect Power, Blackbeard and Vandeek were all victorious in the famous French Group One. And Whistlejacket can keep the trend running. He looks like a talented sprinter for Ballydoyle, which they’ve not had many in recent years. Soft ground won’t bother him either, given he broke his maiden on a similar surface.

     

    Causing Havoc

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire (Heritage H’cap) – Norwalk Havoc @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Soft ground horses are the one to get behind here. Norwalk Havoc won on soft ground as a three-year-old and has proved to be ground versatile after his close second in the Colm Quinn Mile. He’s been raised a respectable three pounds for this run and goes in with a good chance. Those drawn in the 20s have had most of the luck in the last ten renewals. Norwalk Havoc is drawn 26.

    Bopedro is another with a good chance. He ran a cracking third in last year’s Cambridgeshire and is a huge nine pounds lower than last year. He just turned back to form when a near second in a class two handicap at Doncaster. If he can carry on this slight upward turn in form, he has another huge chance. 14/1 (General).

    Empirestateofmind looks to be targeted for this race. Although he hasn’t had the best of seasons. His two runs have not seen him at the front of the pack and his mark lingers at a respectable 90. However, he does like the ground soft underfoot and is drawn well. It is clear when you look back at his career, his best runs often come late on in the season. Not a write off at 50/1 (William Hill, Boylesports).

    Best of Luck!

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting | Rain Gives Sea of Roses Dubai Stakes Shot

    Cambridgeshire Meeting | Rain Gives Sea of Roses Dubai Stakes Shot

    As flat season winds down, interest is growing in Sea of Roses making a play in Friday’s Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes.

    With the rain tumbling down on Day 1 of the Cambridgeshire Meeting at Newmarket, turf which has largely been good or good to firm since July, has taken a turn.

    Now officially soft, the Suffolk going has been shaken up, with Ryan Moore and Time Lock still the pick for Friday’s feature race.

    However, with the ground a good deal juicier now, could Oisin Murphy throw his hat in the ring?

     

    Sea of fortune?

    Despite a wetter than average summer for UK racegoers and punters, the last few months, have remained largely dry.

    However, the the first deluge of Autumn this week have not only seen a change of season but a dramatic switch in conditions.

    That could play handsomely in the direction of Sea of Roses.

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    For a Group 1 race, on soft ground there is little in the way of form to go by, but Andrew Balding’s 4yo is one of the few runners not lightly raced.

    Not only that, the daughter of Sea The Moon comes here with a win at Windsor last month on soft ground, taking down Deira Mile – who went on to finish fourth in the St Leger a fortnight ago.

    As Oisin Murphy jumps aboard for a sixth time, the Irishman and filly are yet to win together, but the rain will only serve them well.

     

    Ryan may not be Lock

    Of course, Time Lock goes in the Dubai Stakes as favourite and with good reason as defending champ after last year’s four-length romp.

    However, could the ground now make things a little bit interesting?

    The 9/2 winner 12 months ago – the 5yo’s last race win – the deck was a lot firmer and with half her career wins on faster turf, there is just a little question mark hanging over Ryan Moore.

    Trainer Harry Charlton has been met with frustration twice this term at Newmarket, and finishing flat last of a small field in the Coronation Cup, has critics to answer.

    Time Lock may be the class of the 8 runners here in terms of pedigree, but does she really want it enough? Quite literally, only time will tell.

     

    Challengers

    Aside from the two in the spotlight, Billy Loughnane and Divina Grace loiter to throw a spanner in the works.

    A two-time winner at HQ, the 4yo filly won at the Cambridgeshire Meet last term but is yet to race on any turf that could be described as softer ground.

    That is not to rule her chances out – far from it – after a campaign of six races, finishing at worst 5th.

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    At similarly longer prices, firstly, Francophone has a outside shot after winning on debut on good to soft, but as a 7f contest, this trip looks a step to far for the moment.

    Meanwhile, Hollie Doyle and Sinology – friendless in the markets at 33/1 with William Hill – have all but been dismissed on current form.

    Yet, as a winner over 1m2f on softish turf at Newbury back in April, has perhaps a better shot than the bookies think.

     

    The Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Stakes takes place on Friday at 2:25pm UK time.

  • Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Two – Four To Follow

    Cambridgeshire Meeting | Day Two – Four To Follow

    It’s a busy weekend full of competitive two-year-old action, all culminating in the big Cambridgeshire handicap. Today is a slightly subdued, yet competitive day of action featuring the milers in the Joel Stakes. Plus two-year-old action in the Rockfel Stakes.

     

    The Spirit Is Strong

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    1:50 – Rosemary Stakes (Listed) – Spiritual @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Quite possibly one of the most competitive Listed contests this year, as the fillies compete of the Rowley Mile. And as its autumn soft ground likers come to the fore. Which is why I’m on Spiritual. Her only victory this season came over a mile on soft ground, in a listed contest. She’s also one of three horses who perform on soft ground, and excuse her last couple of runs for ground complaints, and she’s a solid pick.

     

    Soft Day At Sea

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    2:25 – Princess Royal Stakes (Group Three) – Sea Of Roses @ 11/2 (General)

    Sea Of Roses managed to end her near miss sequence by winning at Windsor in the August Stakes last time out. She was tough in the end of her race that day and can now start to build on it. With the ground set to get softer, she can begin to relish in the fact that her record on the surface reads 2-2-1, two wins, two places and a loss. At the top of the market Time Lock and Mistral Star have neither performed on the surface, which will open it up for soft specialist Sea Of Roses.

     

    Smart Dress

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    3:00 – Rockfel Stakes (Group Two) – Formal @ 6/5 (William Hill)

    Two from two, and an eye-catching winner on soft ground, there’s no wonder that Formal is favourite. To make it even better it seems that Formal is ground versatile. He could provide Sir Michael Stoute with a stunning finish to his career. He’s well-bred by Cheveley Park out of Veracious, who won the Atalanta and Falmouth Stakes. He could  see his price shortened for the 2000 Guineas.

    At the prices, Duty First looks attractive having finished second to Ashnoda at Goodwood in the Prestige Stakes. Form from Goodwood is often useful in the Rockfel with three of the last four winners coming from Goodwood last time out. What’s more is that he showed he is capable of testing ground, which it will be on the Rowley Mile and is drawn towards the stand side which can be an advantage. Interesting at 8/1 (William Hill).

     

    Going Gaga

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    3:35 – Joel Stakes (Group Two) – Poker Face @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    Two horses will go head to head again, and should be the top two finish again. Ice Max and Poker Face battled it out in the Celebration Mile on very testing ground at Goodwood last time out and will go close again. However, Poker Face could overturn the result. He produced a good performance when fourth to Diego Velazquez last time out, but there wasn’t enough rain to slow the leader down. This time there is plenty of rain around and is drawn more favourably than Ice Max.

     

  • Four To Follow: Babouche Babouche

    Four To Follow: Babouche Babouche

    After the thrill of Glorious Goodwood, we calm down a little before the Ebor Festival in a couple of weeks time. Today, it’s Group One action over in Ireland with the Phoenix Stakes. The highly exciting Whistlejacket takes on the unbeaten Babouche, in a fascinating contest. Plus three races from the UK, to make it a regular four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Running Up That Hill

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    4:35 – Phoenix Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Babouche @ 5/2 (General)

    Despite Whisltejacket being a full brother to Little Big Bear who won this race two years ago, there still is chinks in the armour that can be exploited. Babouche is the one who can exploit those minor faults. She was a much better finisher than Camille Pissaro and should step up in trip in the very near future. In recent years, Aidan O’Brien has loosened his chokehold on the race and Ger Lyons can pounce with this exciting filly

     

    Haydock

    Shadwell Shining

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    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Anmaat @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    Despite being very, very lightly raced, Anmaat is a horse with fantastic ability. Owen Burrows seems to bring him out at particular moments of the season, including this race which he won in 2022. He was last seen winning a French Group One. In May 2023. He’s incredibly consistent, goes well fresh and has gone well on good-to-firm. Clearly the one to beat and the one to side with.

     

    Good Chois

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    4:45 – Dick Hern Stakes (Listed) – Choisya @ 9/1 (General)

    This Listed race has the potential to be the race of the day across the UK and Ireland. Some talented fillies take to the track, but only a couple of them go on firm ground. An it’s those horses to side with in a tight race like this.

    Choisya hasn’t been seen since May at Goodwood, with that race producing a winner at Goodwood and a winner in Ireland in the months since. Her last win on turf was on good-to-soft but won on good-to-firm ground at Haydock in her only other win on turf in her career. Simon & Ed Crisford are again in decent form and her price seems overpriced.

    Dora Milaje may be the outsider, but is one who relishes firm ground. She has made a great step up in class from class four handicaps to listed contests. She steps down in distance on her preferred ground, and may have been her excuse when finishing fourth in the Pomfet Stakes at Pontefract last month. Still a good each-way price considering she’s an outsider at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Sweet Splash

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    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Lake Victoria @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Lake Victoria is one from one after edging her maiden win ahead of Red Letter. Since then Red Letter has followed up and franked the form, plus the fifth placed horse has too. With form on her side, plus good pedigree related to former O’Brien stable Bluegrass. She might not have the hopes of Ballydoyle to become a future star, but experience doesn’t count for nothing.

    The very best of luck!

  • Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    In what is labelled as ‘Super Saturday’ in the racing world, Newmarket July Cup Day is upon us with top-class action from Newmarket, Ascot, Chester, and York to look forward to.

    With a plethora of racing on our screens today, here are my main bets.

     

    2:12 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 33/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Heritage House has taken a walk in the market this morning, but as they say, the horse doesn’t know its price and her form in the book looks interesting off a mark of 93.

    The Dark Angel three-year-old has tried handicap company on two occasions, winning one and finishing second to Chic Colombine the other time.

    Chic Colombine is a Listed winner rated 103, so that form looks fairly strong.

    As for her other runs, she finished fourth to Romantic Style – a subsequent French 1000 Guineas fourth – in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes last year and she then ran a good race on her last start.

    That race was the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle and the winner, Jabaara, franked the form yesterday by finishing second to Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.

    The James Fanshawe yard is in fair form currently, so she’s an interesting contender at a big price.

     

    2:20 Ascot – Embesto @ 14/1 with William Hill (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Over at Ascot, my main play from the course comes at a price as Embesto can outrun his odds in the Group 2 Summer Mile Stakes.

    It’s not a vintage renewal on paper, but the four-year-old by Roaring Lion progressed nicely as a three-year-old and has form in the book that makes him interesting in this company.

    As much as he failed to fire subsequently, finishing second to Nostrum in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes looks like good form and he then showed great attitude to force a dead-heat in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury.

    Following a good fourth to Poker Face (second to Charyn at the start of this year) and Isaac Shelby (Classic form from last season) in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, he has had a murky start to his 2024 campaign.

    One can forgive him for his first run of the season and then he had a troubled route through the Group 3 Diomed Stakes, so he has had excuses for the efforts.

    If he puts his best foot forward – which he should do thanks to a bit more race fitness – I can see him having a good chance of causing a surprise.

     

    3:45 York – Al Qareem @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    With eight runners declared for the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes at York, the race looks ripe for an each-way play, but I can’t get away from Al Qareem at the head of affairs.

    Conditions look pretty decent for the five-year-old by Awtaad as he is racing over 1m6f at York on good to soft ground.

    He’s won at York over 1m4f before, but he did win the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over 1m7f in 2022, so the trip is not too much of a worry.

    Ignoring his 2022 form (which looks good on paper having run alongside Eldar Eldarov and Deauville Legend), his 2023 form is the best in the race.

    Having had a stint abroad in early 2023, he returned to the UK with a victory over Bluestocking in the Listed Stand Cup Stakes at Chester before beating Israr in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

    Subsequently, he has finished behind Hamish on two occasions, once in the 2023 Group 3 St Simon Stakes and once at the start of this season in the Group 3 Surprise Stakes.

    So, with all that form in the book, let’s hope he translates that to the track.

     

    4:35 Newmarket – River Tiber @ 8/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is a good renewal of the July Cup, I’m chancing River Tiber for a stable that does well in this contest with horses dropping in trip.

    Aidan O’Brien won the race with U S Navy Flag in 2018 and Ten Sovereigns in 2019, two horses who started the season at eight furlongs.

    That is the same profile as River Tiber who ran a great race when third to Rosallion in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the end of May.

    Furthermore, one could argue that the Irish Guineas turned into a bit of a sprint as the early sectionals were on the slow side and the front three flew home with wet sails.

    With my frequently-used forgiving hat on, he potentially bounced in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and there was plenty of confidence behind him that day.

    Of course, one has to respect Vandeek and Inisherin at the head of the market, but 8/1 seems like a fair price for a horse of River Tiber’s quality and I’m happy to back him.

  • Newmarket July Festival | Khaadem eyes July Cup Group 1 double

    Newmarket July Festival | Khaadem eyes July Cup Group 1 double

    As Saturday sees the July Festival wrap up at Newmarket, the July Cup has Khaadem seeking a Group 1 season double.

    On the heels of two days of flat racing at HQ, the ground has held up well enough, but as rain arrives overnight in Suffolk, that could thrown the form book asunder.

    And as Charlie Hills look to keep a good thing going, will the rain help or hinder Khaadem and Billy Loughnane?

     

    Surprise defender

    Now 8yo, through he may only have nine careers wins from 34, Khaadem remains a horse for the big occasion.

    A two-time Group 1 winner, the son of Dark Angel once again stunned Royal Ascot to storm home and retain the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last month.

    Only a second win since winning the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood in July 2022, said two victories bucked both trend and form.

    With entries in the Sprint Cup and Nunthorpe Stakes to follow in the coming weeks, can Khaadem prove a consistent performer in elite company?

     

    HQ omen?

    We mention the King George two years back, that day was the first and only time Khaadem has put together back-to-back career wins.

    His victory prior was at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes at the start of that season, so though cynics might suggest the presence of a one-course wonder, Khaadem can get it done at HQ.

    Perhaps the bigger question surrounds the ground for Saturday, as the going looks set to switch from good to good to soft, but more likely, soft.

    Khaadem’s three biggest wins have all come on faster ground but has proven a liking for the juicy turf in the past, albeit some six years ago.

    So there is a good deal of uncertainty to his chances, but if it comes down the form, Khaadem is still a player at 20/1.

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    A ‘Sher thing?

    A good deal off the top billing, the favourite to to take the winning post in the July Cup is currently Inisherin.

    Himself buoyant from the Commonwealth Cup, the 3yo colt is looking for a third win on the spin and has no concerns over the ground.

    Returning to Newmarket after finishing sixth in the 2000 Guineas, the 40/1 shot that day has been one of the form runners into the summer, and over 6f might take some beating.

    The softening ground may also disappoint the ever-game Swingalong, who after being pipped at the death by Khaadem at Royal Ascot will be keen to exact a dose of vengeance.

    Having placed in five of the last six outings over 6f, and leading from stalls to the brink of victory last time out, trainer Karl Burke will be quietly confident of his and his 4yo’s chances.

     

    The My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes takes place on Saturday at 4:35pm UK time.

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Three tips on Day Three of the July Festival, plus a John Smith’s Cup tip at York

     

    Newmarket

    Greek God

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    3:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Often one of the two-year-old races to watch, the Superlative has given light to the careers of Native Trail and City Of Troy in recent years. This year, there aren’t many horses to pick from impressive breeding lines so form lines are extra important. The Parthenon enjoyed a nice win at Gowran last time out, and his form line works out slightly better than his Godolphin counterpart.

    Look out for Pentle Bay who was best of the rest behind Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot. He’s one of a couple of horses to win on giving ground in his early career and has plenty of staying pedigree for the future. 5/1 (William Hill).

     

    Totally Mad

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    4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Most people would associate seven furlong handicaps with Ascot, but the Bunbury Cup is always a competitive feature of the July Festival. Awaal finished third in this race last year, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind winner Biggles. He’s back down to a mark of 102, the same when finishing second in the Lincoln handicap in 2023. He’s three pounds lower than his mark last year for this race and Simon & Ed Crisford enjoyed a double on yesterday’s card and can build on that today.

    Darkness has less success at this level of handicapping, but has one crucial thing in is favour. He’s two from two on the July course, horses for courses they say. His two wins on the course both came on firm ground, but when in France he has won of soft ground too, so there shouldn’t be any problems there. He can defy a six pound penalty today and make a good showing at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Yorkshire has two things that I really like about him. One: His name. Two: His low weight. Despite not performing at this level of handicapping in the past, he comes into this race with a win over seven furlongs already. Plus he has a versatility with ground, winning from good-to-firm to good-to-soft. Only three pounds above his last winning mark and has the weight of God’s Own County behind him. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Re-Match Point

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    4:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Vandeek @ 7/2 (Unibet)

    Plenty of rematch’s in this ultra-competitive July Cup. I’m siding with the Crisford’s once again with their stable star. Vandeek wasn’t up to his best at Haydock, but given it was his first run of the season, I’m willing to let that slide. After he missed the Royal meeting, this was the clear target for Vandeek and should put in a first-class performance.

    Mill Stream has been very consistent in sprint races this season. Out of three he’s finished 2, 1, 3 respectively. The furthest he got beat was by Khaadem at Royal Ascot last time out, and only by one-and-three-quarter lengths. He’s versatile on all ground and seems to come alive during mid-summer. 12/1 (General).

    This will be Jasour’s first time in open company, with the older horses involved. Again, he’s been quite consistent in two runs, with a win and third in the Commonwealth Cup. With a six pound allowance for three-year-olds, the younger horses are always preferred. Particularly, with 5 of the last 10 winners all three-year-olds. If he’s on his day again, he can run a big race at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    John Smith’s Keats

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    3:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Epic Poet @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Always one of the most exciting handicaps of the summer, in my opinion, the John Smith’s Cup. Epic Poet is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race, being three pounds well-in and a second last time out. He remains on the same mark of 97 and has a tendency to perform on soft ground, going on his career wins which all happened in France. He can overcome an outside draw, similar to Farraaj 10 years ago.

    Not many favourites, or single-price runners win this race. Looking down the market Paradis looks a nice each-way selection. Despite not being placed on a mark of 95, he’s down in the lower half of the weights. He loves give in the ground, and he’s got good-to-soft today. If he can overcome his big field no shows, then he has a big shout. 12/1 (William Hill).

    Dual Identity has the benefit of having a win to his name already this season. Despite being a Sandown specialist, he has won over ten furlongs. He’s down to a mark he can handle, and has the benefit of a claimer on board. He’s a little bit well-in, which may put him above some of the other runners. Can he win away from Sandown for the third time? 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!