Best Of Bets

Tag: newmarket

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day Two of the July Festival

     

    Trip To Paris

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    1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Chantilly @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The form from the London Gold Cup has once again proven itself to be a hot piece of guidance. Chantilly came third in that race and underperformed at Ascot last time out. However, give him the excuse of firm ground and he should be a better match today. He also steps down in trip which will suit him, as he’s closely related to milers in his family.

    Sun God is likely to be a major threat in this race and has been found out by the market, but is still backable. A half-brother to Lillie Langtry and Park Hill winner Sumo Sam, Sun God is likely to go well at both the surface and the trip at this stage in his career. He also showed positive signs when just being held off by Black Run back in May. Exciting prospect at 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Heavens Gate

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    2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Heavens Gate @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Heavens Gate showcased a lot of potential despite being second choice behind Fairy Godmother in the Albany at Royal Ascot. She set the pace pretty much all the way and was just succumbed to Fairy Godmother coming over the top. She will have soft ground in her pedigree and should be able to handle this test.

    Fiery Lucy is also one I favour. Her run at Fairyhouse has seen the second back up the form next time out at Bellewstown and comes into the race. Despite not being out of an affirmed sire and only related to one black type horse she might not have the best pedigree for a Group Two. But her form and performances are worth noting. 11/1 (General).

     

    Golden Band

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    3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Bague D’Or is very consistent in handicaps, particularly when winning on his first start of the season. He’s a modest four pounds above that previous winning mark. There may be a slight negative that he hasn’t won on any ground worse than good, but his record in handicaps is so consistent I can’t look past him.

    Knightswood makes an appeal at a price. The Johnston stable has a decent record in the race having recently won it back in 2022. With the market just preferring Knightswood over the other two in the race, there has to be something right with him. A classic stayer and steadily rising up the weights, he turns up with a low weight on his back and looks versatile on the ground. 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Favour Or Fortuna

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    3:35 – Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 6/4 (William Hill)

    With the form from both the 1000 Guineas Stakes working out superbly well, the ideal pick is someone who has benefitted. Porta Fortuna won the Coronation Stakes after being nosed off by Elmalka in the 1000 Guineas. And with none of her rivals turning up here, the talented Porta Fortuna can scorch away and do us all a favour by handing us a profit.

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day One of the July Festival

     

    Lunar Hero

    1:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Space Legend @ 2/1 (William Hill)

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    Ancient Wisdom is clearly the better rated, but has been underwhelming in his first two starts as a three-year-old. He never handled the track at Epsom, and was well beaten at York. Space Legend has been a little more consistent. He was well beaten on firm ground at Royal Ascot, but was almost two lengths clear of the rest of the field. With staying pedigree, his clear target is the St Leger and this is often a quiet trial.

     

    Whistle While You Work

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    2:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 5/4 (General)

    If you look back at Whistlejacket’s run at Royal Ascot, he never ran badly. He consistently led his group down the centre of the course, but the clear negative for him was the firm ground. Which is understandable, previous form backs it up. Had it been firmer ground today, it would be a far more open race. But with only few horses having experience on soft ground, Whistlejacket is a clear pick

     

    Soft Sprinter

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    3:00 – Bet Boost Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Moswaat @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Three-year-old handicaps still annoy me a little bit at this time of year. But we plug on and look for a sprinter who can handle the soft ground. Moswaat fits the bill for me. His first three runs this season have been disappointing, but he has only won previously on soft ground. He’s been dropped three pounds for his run at Royal Ascot and is down the weights today. Silvestre De Sousa has been on fine form since returning from Hong Kong and always catches the eye on board.

    Palmar Bay had a nice two-year-old season, winning twice and placed twice. He hasn’t seemed to handle the step up to seven furlongs, so the drop back to six will be a big positive. Again, he’s been dropped three pounds on conditions he will relish. He can also go forward on his side of the draw, and on soft ground might not be caught either. 14/1 (General).

     

    Scots Aren’t Soft

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    3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Hamish @ 10/11 (William Hill, Betfred)

    If there’s one horse you want to win over a mile-and-a-half and on soft ground. Call on Hamish. Coming off the back of an admirable run at Epsom, he’s back in more comfortable surroundings with a possible eye to the King George at the end of the month. Giavellotto steps down in trip, which could be a hindrance with a penalty on board and Arrest is far too inconsistent to consider so Hamish is the answer

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    After the come-down of Royal Ascot, we focus on a couple of Derby’s. Today, it’s the Pitman’s Derby up at Newcastle, or the Northumberland Plate as it is more formally known. Then on Sunday we have the Irish Derby, with the Epsom Derby’s second and third re-opposing. It’s a rare Saturday Five To Follow!

     

    Newcastle

    Northern Success

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    2:04 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Kinross @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Clearly, this is a prep race for Kinross in search of July Cup glory. Kinross missed Royal Ascot last week, which was a peculiar move by Ralph Beckett since heb seems to thrive on the heath. But clearly, bigger things are in store for the impressive multiple Group One winner. Starting things off in a Group Three has all the rest of the field vying for places.

     

    Duke’s Derby

    3:10 – Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) – Duke Of Oxford @ 11/1 (William Hill)

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    Duke Of Oxford has every right to be shorter than he is. He has a better record on the all-weather than he does on turf. He’s won at the distance and can easily manage the weight he has been given for a true stamina test. At Newcastle he has a record of second and third, and is back to the mark he was for second on All-weather Finals day. His run at Chester was underwhelming, but has put him back in contention for the Pitman’s Derby.

    Sir Mark Prescott’s power of handicapping awareness cannot go understated. He won last night Hoppings Fillies Stakes, so has already prepped himself for an onslaught of Newcastle. He has two for the Pitman’s Derby. But I fancy his second string True Legend, an each-way pick. He has already won at Newcastle and is a progressive sort after just losing out at Goodwood last time out. He should make a good account of himself at 12/1 (BetVictor).

    Forza Orta hasn’t been in the best of form lately. But could this be the mastermind of trainer Kevin Ryan. He wasn’t exactly in the best of form coming into his most recent win at York, with a second at Hamilton behind him. He’s only a pound above that mark today and is low in the weights too. A clear stayer and this race may have been quietly in mind. Too big to ignore at 25/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Back To His Best

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    3:25 – Criterion Stakes (Group Three) – Nostrum @ 4/1 (General)

    Nostrum has had some excuses of late. At the end of last season he scoped lame, and at the start of this season he “raced awkwardly”. With an extended break, Sir Michael Stoute has hopefully fixed the problem for the 2022 Dewhurst third and has Charyn to back up the form from the April race this season.

    Witch Hunter has just kept running into good horses of late. Although his Group One performances have brought dividends. He finished third in the Lockinge and fourth in the Queen Anne, outperforming his odds both times. With a small field, and ground he can perform on, he’s got an each-way shout at 7/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh – Saturday

    No Blue Feelings

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    3:30 – Pretty Polly Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Bluestocking @ 15/8 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Four British raiders are over for this Group One. And the favourite takes the fancy. Emily Upjohn has plenty of things not in her favour, particularly going off her last performance at Epsom. Stay Alert will not want the ground firm, which looks like she won’t get. And Tasmania is a bit of an unknown in the hands of Sir Mark Prescott, who will have yes on Newcastle. Bluestocking obliterated the Middleton field at York and will perform on similar ground at the Curragh.

     

    Curragh- Sunday

    Race Of Angels

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    4:05 – Irish Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 7/4 (General)

    After his third in the Epsom Derby, it was clear Los Angeles was a stayer and this was the next logical target. I’m still not taken by Ambiente Friendly, even though he finished more than three lengths in front of Los Angeles. I still think that stamina may be a challenge for him. Particularly when Los Angeles is out of a Derby winner and a full brother to two black type winners with a mile-and-a-half in their pedigree.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Yesterday, we saw a shock as City Of Troy checked out of the 2000 Guineas in a major disappointment. Today will be a trickier challenge with the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. A rather open field with plenty due for improvement, so who takes the nod in today’s four to follow?

     

    Blast-Off

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    1:50 – William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) – Kalpana @ 7/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Kalpana blew everyone at the Craven meeting, winning in handicap company by 10 lengths. That kind of form is useful when stepping up into Listed company, and should beat the field, who are somewhat either exposed or inexperienced. She has plenty of staying pedigree in her family so shouldn’t have a problem with the trip again.

    At a price, a horse I loved last season, Carolina Reaper. It’s hard to say if she will improve from two to three, but she is a Group Three winner (albeit in Germany). It’s a hike in distance and more of a fact-finding mission today, and breeding suggests overall a mile will be best. But her dam did get a mile-and-a-quarter when three years old, so 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) may be worth a little punt.

     

    Alert And Awake

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    2:25 – William Hill Dahila Stakes (Group Two) – Stay Alert @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Stay Alert may be a little underestimated in the field. She wasn’t successful at Group One level, and this may more to her taste. She’s won twice going fresh plus she’ll get her ground. Also stepping down a touch to a mile and a furlong might bring the best out of her. Plus, she’s top rated without having to give any weight away which makes her price all the more appealing.

    Caernarfon was an Oaks horse, many people forget. And she finished third. She did get stepped down to a mile and a quarter, but never produced her best. Her last win came over a mile, and she’s only a furlong above that. Plus, a course win only enhances her chances further. She’s a little shorter than I expected, but she should go well. 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Golden Ring

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    3:00 – William Hill Handicap (Heritage) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Bague D’or is a horse who can go really well fresh, with two wins and two seconds. A slight negative is he is off the same mark as he was at the end of last season. But he did only race twice last season and this run may bring about more improvement. Mickael Barzalona is a really interesting jockey booking and may deliver a first win in less than two years.

    Adjuvant is another horse who can go well fresh with a win and two places. He inexplicably had a brief campaign over hurdles during the Winter, but he’s definitely a flat horse. He drops two pounds to a mark he finished second at the Goodwood Festival last year, where he was nearly two lengths ahead of third. Adjuvant won over C&D last May off a higher mark but has every right to hit the frame. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Struth is a really interesting character. He’s won twice off a break, including on debut. He finished third over 1m 6F at Haydock last season, which is his only experience over the trip, so is still a bit unexposed. 96 is a mark he can give or take, but given he’s won two races in his career in the spring, now may be the time to back him. 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A Classic Renewal

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    1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 100/30 (General)

    Yesterday, we all thought we knew how the first Classic of the season would go. Now the second Classic is here, it’s opened up enormously. However, a Group One winner in Fallen Angel should not be discounted. Brilliant backs the form up from her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season, but so does her win in the Sweet Solera. Bred from a Group Mile winner, she should have it in her to win this race.

    It may be a surprise that Porta Fortuna turns up here, but she almost won at the Breeders’ Cup. She came within half a length at a distance that she had not experienced that season, which shows a massive improvement at a young age. She should get the distance now she’s three, and her dam won over further in her career. Definitely a watch at 14/1 (Unibet).

    Darnation lit up my eyes when watching her live at Thirsk breaking her maiden. She achieved Group success since, but just failed in the Criterium for Fillies and Longchamp. She’s a proven Group winner over the distance which should stand her in good stead, despite her being 33/1 (William Hill, 10Bet).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    And we’re off with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. After all the hype could we finally see City Of Troy become a world beater or will Rosallion, quotes as one of the best Richard Hannon has trained, snatch victory. Plus a terrific undercard too. It’s a two-parter Newmarket Guineas Four to Follow.

     

    The Classic Chairman

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    1:45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage) – Chairmanoftheboard @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Being at least a pound well in a handicap like this can make all the difference. And that is what exactly Chairmanoftheboard is. He was only beaten by a head at the Craven meeting and hasn’t moved off his mark of 86. Surely with the downpour everyone has had in the country has hit Newmarket too and should have enough dig to have his preferred ground and will have a good go at this.

    An interesting quote from Richard Hannon about this horse is “The more trouble he gets in the better.” Mums Tipple didn’t have that much of a successful season last year, with only a win at Chelmsford in March. However, his all-weather mark and turf mark are five pounds apart, with the turf mark more appealing. Plus he seems to act well at the start of the season as well, so should go near at 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

    It’s also worth giving a mention at a big price for Desert Cop. He’s been dropped a full ten pounds from his last turf appearance in the Ayr Gold Cup. He was last seen finishing last whilst finishing top weight at Kempton and the significant drop might signal some improvement from a horse who’s won early on in the season before. 22/1 (General).

     

    Catch A Dutchman

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    2:20 – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Dutch Decoy @ 15/2 (General)

    For a horse who finished within a neck last time out and is a pound well in on the handicap, it’s hard to figure out why Dutch Decoy is the price that he is. He’s higher in the weights than last year, but not by much showing that he is an improving horse. Johnston horses love to make the running and with everything in favour for Dutch Decoy, most will be playing catch me if you can.

    Majestic is a big Newmarket lover. A winner of the Cambridgeshire, he didn’t exactly follow up but put in a good shift at the start of last season in this race. He returns at a lower mark and conditions should be in his favour. He was only beaten a length into fifth last time out at the Craven meeting so he should be in and around the finish according to the handicapper. 9/1 (William Hill).

    If there’s one jockey that everyone should take note of, it’s Saffie Osborne. A hugely talented rider, and she gets the leg up on Mustazeed. A horse who, last season, began really well. However, he’s been on a mark of 88 for a while and has only come down after a poor performance at the end of last season. His last win came on good ground so conditions may suit for a big run. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Mit-Baah Humbug

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    2:55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group Three) – Mitbaahy @ 100/30 (Unibet)

    Three-year-olds don’t have a great record early on in the Palace House so I’ve looked to the more experienced type. Mitbaahy wasn’t too far away in the Abernant during the Craven meeting, and sometimes needs a run before he needs to be considered. Whilst not a Group One horse, he’s certainly a horse who can act at this level.

     

    Definitely Not Wooden

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    2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 8/11 (William Hill, Unibet)

    If there’s one horse that everyone has been waiting for this flat season, it’s City Of Troy. Everyone has waited for this horse to compete in the Guineas after his win in the Dewhurst Stakes, often a great pointer to this race. Rosallion does have good form behind him, but City Of Troy has rather better.

    Alyanaabi finished second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst and has his form boosted by Boiling Point, from the Tattersalls Stakes, winning yesterday at Newmarket. He’s bred by Too Darn Hot, which means he will certainly get a mile. It may be a question of ground after winning twice on firmer surfaces. But Shadwell usually gets their breeding right. 18/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    It’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival, a week that has certainly had its fair share of varying results.

    As for yesterday, this column managed to get Brides Hill across the line, though there was a bit of bad luck through Flanking Maneuver and Lifetime Ambition.

    Still, with action from Punchestown and Newmarket to look forward to, let’s dive in.

     

    1:15 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW (3 places)

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    Over in the opener at Newmarket, Heritage House gets the allowances from her elders and she has some nice two-year-old form in the book.

    The three-year-old by Dark Angel is out of Global Light, a half-sister to the top sire Mehmas, and she ran in the Listed Nell Gwyn Stakes last month on her first start at seven furlongs, though she was a bit keen and had a troubled passage through the race.

    The Nell Gywn looks like solid form as she stayed on behind the Guineas-bound Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence.

    Before that, she finished fourth to Romantic Style (Charlie Appleby’s Night Of Thunder three-year-old who beat Ramatuelle in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence) in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes, a race that also included Adaay In Devon (rated 100) and Navassa Island.

    With two bits of solid form at Newmarket and race fitness in the book, she looks likely to run a big race.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Neveradullmoment @ 9/1 with SkyBet (1pt EW) & Bowtogreatness @ 28/1 with Bet365 (0.5pt EW) (6 places)

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    Two horses look likely to hit the frame in the second race at Punchestown, the first of which is Neveradullmoment.

    He’s tried three miles once before and ran a good race but was hampered at the second-last fence, yet he still stayed on.

    The step up to nearly four miles can encourage improvement, and he has form behind Intense Raffles (the Irish Grand National winner) and Where It All Began (Grand National Trial winner) from a novice chase at Fairyhouse in January.

    He was also behind owner-mate Perceval Legallois on chase debut over 2m2f and he has form on ground varying from yielding to heavy.

    As for Bowtogreatness, he’s a slightly sentimental bet, but Ben Pauling has made no secret in the regard that he holds him in.

    Although he disappointed in the Kim Muir, the race came just 18 days after his big run in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase which was maybe on the sharp side in hindsight.

    Furthermore, although his recent form comes on decent ground, his novice hurdle form came on soft and heavy ground and there’s no reason to suggest he’ll hate any softening in the surface.

    As for his mark, a rating of 130 is very lenient and Ben Pauling wouldn’t bring him to Punchestown for no reason.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Minella Crooner @ 25/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW (5 places)

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    Gordon Elliott’s Minella Crooner has always promised to land a big race over fences, and I’m hoping this theory occurs today.

    The eight-year-old finished second in the 2022 Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind this year’s Bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner.

    He also split Journey With Me and Kilcruit over 2m4f in a maiden hurdle, two pieces of strong form.

    Since trying his hand over fences, he nearly beat Darrens Hope on his debut over the big obstacles (in a Grade 2 novice chase) when receiving weight before beating I Am Maximus, the 2024 Grand National winner, at Fairyhouse.

    As for this season, a victory over Joyeux Machin set a good tone before he was a fast-finishing third to Jungle Boogie (who was running well in the Gold Cup before a mistake at the third-last) and Classic Getaway in the Grade 3 Savills Chase on New Year’s Day.

    Although his last three outings haven’t made for great reading, a return to a sharper three miles around a course he’s always done well at (won a bumper, won a maiden hurdle, and ran well twice over fences) will suit and the recent rain in the last 24 hours will cause no harm as well.

    For a horse of his quality, a mark of 142 is lenient in this field.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Kargese @ 13/8 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Today is a big day for Paul Townend in his search for the jockeys’ championship, and Kargese looks like one to help him on his journey.

    Although the four-year-old by Jeu St Eloi has raced at the Dublin Racing Festival, Cheltenham, and Aintree, she showed plenty of keenness on her last start which didn’t indicate any chance of her stopping.

    Her form with Majborough and Sir Gino from the two big UK festivals is the best here and I came out of Aintree with serious respect for her ability.

    She gets weight from the geldings, but she is a tough filly and her family tended to handle their races quite well.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Monbeg Park @ 11/1 with Bet365 – 1pt EW (6 places)

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    Coming into this season, I fancied Monbeg Park to hit the frame at the top level in novice chases, but connections have decided to revert him to hurdles.

    That’s not usually something I’m too keen on, but he didn’t jump with much fluency at Punchestown on his last start and his novice hurdling form is top quality.

    He beat Spillane’s Tower (a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner) and Uncle Phil (rated 149 over fences) at the Punchestown Festival last year and he was also second to Affordale Fury (the Albert Bartlett runner-up) on his debut over hurdles.

    Having won twice around the track, my theory is connections wouldn’t bring him back this season if he wasn’t spot on because he has had well-documented joint issues in the past.

    Therefore, with a lenient mark of 135, I hope he can outrun his odds.

  • Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Whilst the entire racing public will focus in on the jumps action at Chepstow, I’m still infatuated with the flat. Some of the top jumps trainers will head to the Rowley Mile this week to contest the Cesarewitch on Saturday, but there’s also top 2-Y-O action along in the Future Champions Festival. We also get to see some old friends sprinting up at York in their final meeting of the season. Here’s this week’s Four To Follow.

    Newmarket

    A Shuwed bet

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    Friday 4:10 – Fillies’ Mile (Group One) – Shuwari @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    With a name like Sangster, a lot is expected of you. And it’s not often a first-year trainer gets a special one straight away. But Shuwari just looks like that. Bred by French Derby winner New Bay, and from a staying family, Shuwari may be one to challenge for the classics. Her run in the Rockfel came with plenty of positives. She stayed on past the line and could have been bang up there with Carla’s Way had she not dwelt the start. Stepping up to a mile won’t be a problem & she’s clearly the one to beat. Favoruites have a strong record in the race, with the last four winners all top of the shop.

    Definitely not wooden

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    Saturday 2:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (Group One) – City Of Troy @ 1/2 (William Hill)

    Sometimes form goes out the window and you go on with what you have seen. And City of Troy was probably the most impressive juvenile winner of the season. He blew the field away on the July course by six-and-a-half lengths and has been kept incredibly fresh for this contest. With plenty of black-type in his pedigree, he can certainly justify odds-on. Only one odds-on shot has been overturned in the last 17 runnings.

     

    Meade for this

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    Saturday 2:40 – Cesarewitch (Heritage H’cap) – Jesse Evans @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    The Cesarewtich is a notoriously tough handicap, but if there’s on trend to follow; back jump trainers. Only three have breached the dominance from the flat world in the last ten years. And whilst everyone is looking to Pied Piper, it’s worth noting that the former flat horse didn’t have much success at this level. Jesse Evans represents better value and has had a fantastic season this Summer. Two wins on the flat, narrowly beaten in the Galway Hurdle and almost landed the Irish version in a tight finish. There’s no doubt he will be up there again.

    Another Meade runner makes appeal further down the market. Sheishybrid finished second in the Cesarewitch Trial two weeks ago and remains on the same mark. She has been on the upgrade in her past few runs, and with three pounds taken off there may be a slight advantage over rival Grand Providence. A wide draw may be a negative, but it shouldn’t make too much difference over two miles and two furlongs. Worth a go at 20/1 (General).

    And it wouldn’t be a Cesarewitch without a Willie Mullins runner. And one at a price is Zenon. She returned off a break of nearly three years to dust the cobwebs off at Bellewstown. Zenon looks to have a preference for softer ground, so conditions may not be ideal. But with 33 rivals around, there’s chance to get a piece of luck somewhere. It’s a big call up for Saffie Osborne, but she’s had a stellar season and can top it off with a big win. 28/1 (William Hill).

     

    York

    No Wobbling about

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    Saturday 2:25 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Wobwobwob @ 10/1 (Betfred)

    Wobwobwob enjoyed success last time out at Ayr winning the Silver Cup. But I feel that the race was a stepping stone to bigger things. And this looks like the target. His past three runs have all been brilliant, from second on heavy Goodwood ground to two pleasing runs in this company. Adrian Paul Keatley will be following a very positive trend of Northern trained winners of the race. Wobwobwob looks primed and ready.

    In behind, Kevin Ryan saddles four runners. This shows how seriously he takes this race, and I think a couple will be at their best today. Firstly, Bielsa who has had a spread out campaign. But he started the season off with a win over C&D and is only three pounds higher in the weights.  It’s also the mark he won off in his Ayr Gold Cup victory in 2021. He looks more than an each-way shout at 14/1 (Betfred).

    The second Kevin Ryan runner I’m suited by is Magical Spirit. Stable jockey Tom Eaves gets the leg up yet finds himself down in the market. He finished third behind Bielsa after a winning start at Doncaster. Now he’s a pound lower than that winning mark and can display a similar performance to that in May. Take a chance at 33/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Sun Chariot Day | King and Queen of Newmarket – The Top Three

    Ahead of Sun Chariot Day on ITV Racing, The Top Three is in a good run of form following the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe card last week.

    All three of Sunday’s selections returned profit and the weekly column finally found a big-priced winner as Kelina fought off the challenge of Kinross to win the Group 1 Prix de la Foret at 16/1.

    Hopefully this can continue on what is an action-packed Saturday as I have three horses to consider from Ascot and Newmarket.

     

    1:50 Ascot: Emaraaty Ana @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s always hard to walk away from one of your cliff horses as you always ask yourself the question of ‘what if’.

    Luckily, coming into the 2023 Flat season I had managed to shake my attachment to Emaraaty Ana, however, I’ve fallen off the wagon and now firmly believe he is the most likely winner of the Listed Rous Stakes at Ascot at 11/4.

    The seven-year-old stalwart returns to five furlongs for the first time since his third in the 2022 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes behind Highfield Princess and The Platinum Queen, though he did finish a very good second in the most recent Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint behind Caravel over five-and-a-half furlongs.

    Add his second to Winter Power in the 2021 Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes and facile victory at Hamilton in July 2021 into the mix and his record over the minimum distance begins to read favourably.

    Despite his age and 31 runs under rules, Kevin Ryan’s Shamardal gelding appears to be in good form based on his neck second to Lezoo – a Group 1 Cheveley Park winner – in the Listed Hopeful Stakes earlier this season as well as his fair third in the Listed Garrowby Stakes at York last month.

    Admittedly, I did question if I was missing something when I saw his price of 11/4 this morning, but his draw in stall two appears to be accounted into his price as high draws were benefitting on the straight course at Ascot yesterday.

    I’m hopeful that his class and a bit of luck can make up for his draw because if this happens, Emaraaty Ana holds a strong chance to return to the winners’ enclosure for the first time in over two years.

     

    2:40 Newmarket: Queen Emma @ 5/2 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Despite my constant barrage of Tony Carroll propaganda, the William Haggas stable ranks quite highly on the list of my favourite trainers in the Flat game.

    From the jockeys they use to how Haggas is in post-race interviews and everything in between, there’s a lot to like.

    Somerville Lodge has eight runners across four tracks to keep an eye on today, though Queen Emma is the one I’m most excited to see in the 1m4f fillies’ handicap at Newmarket.

    The three-year-old by Saxon Warrior comes into her third handicap contest in good form following two victories and a second in her last three races.

    One of those successes came at Goodwood in late August where she travelled smartly into the race and, after a bit of encouragement from Adam Farragher, showed her three rivals a clean set of heels; the second, Madame Ambassador, bolted up by four lengths at Newmarket on her next start, suggesting the form is reliable.

    Furthermore, she was equally as impressive during her first victory of the season as she came four-wide around the bend at Lingfield and managed to make up the five-length deficit between her and the runner-up Marmara Sea with ease; similarly to her Goodwood win, the form looks good as Marmara Sea won on handicap debut at Haydock less than two months later.

    Although she failed to make it a hat-trick last time out, the softer conditions potentially stumped her chances slightly, so the return to a better surface should suit today.

    All in, the booking of Frankie Dettori can only be a positive move for Queen Emma who looks to hold a brilliant chance in the 2:45 at Newmarket.

     

    4:45 Ascot: Existent @ 11/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    I’ve stuck with the theme of horses running in yellow and black silks at Ascot today as in the finale, Existent deserves a chance at 11/1 with Boylesports.

    On paper, plenty would suggest that trusting Stuart Williams’ five-year-old by Kingman is a brave move considering the last time he found the winners’ enclosure was 20 runs ago, yet I’m reluctant to leave him alone thanks to his well-handicapped nature.

    That’s because his official rating of 90 is 10 pounds below his Goodwood second in August, 12 pounds below his promising fifth over course and distance last month and four pounds below his last winning mark.

    That is an incredible fall through the weights for a horse who finished fourth in the Group 2 Temple Stakes in late May, just half a length behind the subsequent Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner Live In The Dream.

    Out of stall 10, Existent is the best horse in this race on bare form and with Hector Crouch, a jockey who knows him, back in the saddle, he looks a decent each-way play in the final race at Ascot.

  • Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Four To Follow: A Day to Challenge

    Another week, another Group One. This time it’s the Sun Chariot Stakes over on the Rowley Mile, whilst the two-year-olds are in action in the Tattersalls October Sales Race. There’s also the Two-Year-Old Trophy up North at Redcar, and the handicap action comes from Ascot with the Challenge Cup. It’s those races we focus on for this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Newmarket

    Running in the dark

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    2:05 – £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes – Midnite Runner @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    An interesting fact about this fairly new sales race is the Northern trainers have a good record in the race. David Barron, Julie Camacho and Les Eyre have all won this race in the past nine renewals. And it’s another Northern trainer that looks to have some potential to cause an upset to the odds-on favourite. Despite racing green in the early stages, Midnite Runner rallied well in the final quarter mile to win my one-and-a-half lengths. The form hasn’t been thoroughly tested, so Michael Dods looks to have a horse with potential here.

    Further down the market, Drama makes some appeal for James Ferguson and Saffie Osborne. He didn’t perform in the Somerville Auction Stakes on the July course, but you could excuse that to firm ground. His only win came on similar ground, in a novice stakes at Windsor. With Saffie continuing her great form for the season, Drama may be one to consider at 16/1 (Betfred)

    Another for the shortlist is Lieutenant Rascal. Bred by U S Navy Flag, he is the speedy type. But on evidence on his last two runs, he would like the slight step up in trip to six furlongs. He’s had a busy season, even finishing towards the rear in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. His last two performances are the evidence to go on, and can end a barren run for trainer George Scott. 22/1 (Betfred).

     

    On the quiet

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    3:15 – Sun Chariot Stakes (Group One) – Meditate @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    People have been easy to dismiss this horse. She’s always fallen to her superior rival Tahiyra and underperformed in the Prix Jean Prat. But, with no Tahyira and what looks like a weakish Group One on paper, she can certainly hit the frame. In recent renewals, the favourite has been overturned and that makes me prefer Meditate over Inspiral.

     

    Ascot

    Sweet and Smoky

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    3:35 – Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Hickory @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Hickory comes into this in good form. A consistent performer over seven furlongs, he started to enter the conversation with two placed efforts over C&D. Trainer James Fanshawe has aimed him for this handicap, and got in on the bottom weight, which is a big bonus. He wasn’t too far behind Baradar, who reopposes him here, and neither Quinault last time out, who also features. The ground will be to his liking, and is drawn to the far side, which can help him.

    Three-year-olds start to come alive at this time in the season and a youngster who has a chance is Glenfinnian. He’s won over C&D in a classified stakes race and didn’t perform on the ground last time out. He comes in on a nice low weight, and a handy stand-side draw. Andrew Balding has tasted success recently over C&D with Alsakib, and has another live chance here at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Redcar

    Action stations

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    2:45 – William Hill Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) – Action Point @ 17/2 (General)

    Dragon Leader is the overwhelming favourite. And whilst favourites do have a good record, he can be opposed. And Action Point looks to be that rival. He drops in Grade from a French Group Three to a Listed contest, which was the last class of race he won at. The ground will be perfect for him, as he ran creditably on similar ground at Chantilly last time out, but far too firm at York. This should be an interesting race, as Dragon Leader won’t have the ground to his usual rattling preference.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    It’s a great weekend for sports fans. The Ryder Cup is in full swing, another great weekend of Premier League football and the Rugby World Cup continues. Plus, it’s Arc weekend. For two days Europe’s elite head to ParisLongchamp for Europe’s biggest prize named after one of the city’s most famous landmark. Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? And there’s the small matter of the Cambridgeshire too.

    Saturday – Newmarket

    A Pot of Fortuna

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    2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally is a really unfortunate non-runner, as she has been the standout this season. But the race opens up and, despite the market headed by a talented French filly, I think one at a price can nab this. Porta Fortuna has been placed twice in her two Group One races and steps back to a more suitable six furlongs. She’ll appreciate the firmness at Newmarket today and jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on her once again.

    Another filly that will appreciate the quickness of the ground is Symbology. She’s ran green a few times, and didn’t help her cause at Salisbury last time out. She wasn’t too far away in the Lowther, which is the form you have to consider for this race, and Clive Cox does have a decent crop of two-year-olds in his stable. Not without hope at 22/1 (William Hill)

     

    Take Them To Task

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    3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group One) – Task Force @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    As of last night, Task Force has been backed in to single figures. And with good reason. Already a Listed winner by winning the Ripon 2-Y-O Trophy, he is bred to act on the ground.

    He may be by Frankel, but his Dam, Special Duty, won the Cheveley Park Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground. If that’s not an omen for this seventh foal of hers, I don’t know what is. Seven Questions is the next best horse to come out of the race and he can really act to beat the two big guns today.

    Jasour is another I really fancy. He’s proven on firm ground, with two wins including a Group Two on the quick stuff. He disappointed in the Prix Morny and led all the way, which showed he was green on the day. He has won races before from the rear of the field, which may be the way to ride him on the Rowley Mile. Double-figure price at 10/1 (William Hill)

     

    Identify This Winner

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    3:40 – Cambridgeshire Heritage H’cap – Dual Identity @ 11/1 (General)

    When it comes to a 35-runner handicap, there shouldn’t be a 7/2 favourite. Ever. So I’ve immediately discounted Greek Order from my thinking for this race. And it didn’t take me long to find my main pick. Dual Identity had a great third in last year’s race and has only risen four pounds up the weights since then. A fantastic performance at Sandown aimed him squarely for this race, and looks in ideal nick to go better this time around.

    Majestic won last year’s event, and in some fashion too. Young Aiden Brooks has been overtaken by Benoit de la Sayette for this year’s crack, and won’t be too far away this time round. He will carry more weight this year, but a mark of 89 is suitable, particularly since he has been in the 90’s all this season.

    His best performance came at Epsom when second to Cadillac on firm ground, so has that in his favour this year too. He could become the first horse since Prince De Galles in 1970 to win the race back to back, 14/1 (Betfred, William Hill) says he doesn’t.

    And three-year-olds begin to come into their own in handicaps at this time of year, so it would be remiss to not back one here, despite the last youngster to win was Lord North in 2019. Terwada for Ed Walker looks interesting after a rather a good season in the form book. His first big runner handicap at York was a baptism of fire, finishing in the top half of the field.

    He’ll have to rely on a nine length win in a maiden to win here, but he’s only five pounds higher than his previous winning mark for a horse continuously improving. 18/1 (General) is a price worth having.

     

    Sunday – ParisLongchamp

    Rewrite the History Huk-s

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    3:05 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group One) – Hukum @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The last horse that was above the age of six was Motrico in 1932. The last horse to win from stall 14 was Golden Horn’s miracle win in 2014. The stats are firmly against him. But I think stats have their place. I rely on stats all the time, but when you fall in love with a horse like Hukum you can’t escape it.

    A winner over further, a tough a ready winner when he won the King George in July, he looks set for the race. He’s been kept fresh and this was the clear aim, in what could be his last race in his career. He might not go down as one of the greats, but if he wins he’ll certainly be popular.

    The very best of luck!