Best Of Bets

Tag: newmarket

  • Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting | Weld’s Classic form is key

    Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting | Weld’s Classic form is key

    Today is a brilliant day for sport with the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting on ITV and day one of the Ryder Cup taking centre stage.

    Despite the constant flicking between the golf and racing channels throughout the day, my full attention turned to the racecards yesterday and as a result, two horses have grabbed my attention, so let’s see who they are.

     

    1:50 Newmarket – Tarawa @ 13/2 General – 1pt EW

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    The Listed Rosemary Stakes opens today’s Newmarket action on ITV and I’m hoping Irish raider Tarawa can get her long-awaited head in front.

    Sporting the first-time cheekpieces, the Dermot Weld-trained three-year-old has been a regular runner this year thanks to her six outings since the start of May; in five runs, she ran to an RPR in excess of 104, showing her consistency in quality races.

    Tarawa is a horse that entered my tracker after her second run of the season in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas where she found herself tucked away under Billy Lee for the majority of the race before staying on towards the finish behind stablemate Tahiyra (a four-time Group 1 winner), Meditate, and Comhra.

    Furthermore, the supplemented Jackie Oh (now rated 107) finished two lengths behind her in fifth and Breege, the Sandringham Stakes runner-up, was even further back in seventh, so the form of the Irish 1000 Guineas looks above average.

    Her held-up style of racing came to the fore again last time out in the Group 2 Dullingham Park Stakes at Leopardstown earlier this month, a contest that saw her complete the race in fifth while powering through the line from the rear of the field.

    If her usual tactics are repeated today – something that has differed in the past, as shown by her third in the Group 2 Romanised Minstrel Stakes in July – she should have a few horses to aim at thanks to the prominent running styles of Queen For You and Quick Change.

    Tarawa looks a strong contender in the second race at Newmarket today and with Shane Lowry lighting up Rome in the Ryder Cup, hopefully, another Irish star can rise to the top on overseas soil.

     

     

    2:25 Newmarket – Novakai @ 6/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Novakai is a horse that I’ve managed to avoid backing on her last two runs which has worked out both positively and negatively.

    The first of these misses came in late July when she made a big impression in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes under Sam James to sprint clear by nearly five lengths; this occurred on her first start at 12 furlongs, so she seemed to relish the new trip.

    The form of this race received a boost two weeks ago as the fourth, Lmay, notably improved to finish a good third to Sumo Sam in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    On her next start, the Karl Burke-trained three-year-old received plenty of market support in the 24 hours leading up to the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks and even hit a low price of 7/1 in the morning of the contest.

    However, the market corrected itself before the off and despite her starting price of 10/1, she disappointed to finish seventh, though she began to rally in the final furlong.

    If you ignore her 11th in the Group 1 Prix de Diane earlier this year, her second to Soul Sister in the Group 3 Musidora stands out amongst the crowd and her runners-up medal in last season’s Group 1 Fillies’ Mile is also a great piece of form.

    With conditions set to suit and in receipt of weight from her elders, Voodoo Queen and Peripatetic, her price of 6/1 looks fair for the reasons stated above.

  • Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    After the Goodwood rain comes the Curragh sun. Regular racing is back for a couple of weeks, and it’s that time of the season where the attention begins to turn to the youngsters, as the first 2-Y-O Group One, the Phoenix Stakes, takes place over in Ireland. There’s also juvenile action from Newmarket, and interesting renewal of the Rose of Lancaster in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Shar To Dash

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    3:25 – Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Shartash @ 9/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood Surprisingly this season, the British have dominated group sprint races at the Curragh.

    Commanche Falls and Art Power are the two who have lit up Ireland’s premier flat course. But Shartash isn’t without hope. The allowance is crucial for him and allows her to become one of the highest rated horses in the race, and the better ground may suit him better.

    He may be drawn in the centre of the track, but he’s surrounded by plenty of pace, which should give him a nice gallop to latch on to.

     

    Unanswered Questions

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    4:40 – Phoenix Stakes (Group One) – Unquestionable @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Both Bucanero Fuente and Unquestionable deserved to have another go at each other again. It was a fantastic race with only a head separating them in the Railway Stakes. Both sons of Wootton Bassett look inseparable, but I think Unquestionable can reverse the result from last time out.

    Firstly, Unquestionable is drawn nearer to the stand-side rail, and it’s quite hard from a horse in stall one to make the journey over to grab it. There’s a good pace angle from Givemethebeatboys on Unquestionable’s outside, and if he gets over to the rail there’s a pacemaker for Bucanero Fuente to latch on to.

    Finally, the Phoenix Stakes dictate that Aidan O’Brien is never far away from the winner’s enclosure, with 17 wins in the race, including with the recently retired Little Big Bear last year.

     

    Newmarket

    Scorch The Turf

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    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Carolina Reaper @ 4/1 (General)

    Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the last ten years. In fact his record since 2014 is 1211231, with no runners in ‘16 & ’17. That’s a strike rate of 71% in the race for nine years. Carolina Reaper is this year’s offering from the Johnston team and looks really attractive.

    She finally broke her maiden in style last time out over C&D, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. Form-wise, the second came and won next time out at Lingfield and the third goes in the second race on the same card today.

    The rail helped her on her maiden win, but today she is drawn towards the centre of the track. She does have pace to latch on to in the stall to her outside, and in form jockey with Jack Mitchell can see her over the line.

     

    Haydock

    Shady Customer

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    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Midnight Mile @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Fillies haven’t got a great record in this race. In fact, a filly hasn’t won this race since Braiswick in 1989, 34 years ago. Surely this year will buck the trend when the exciting Midnight Mile is introduced.

    She won stylishly at York last time out, and the ground will be perfect for her this time around. A hefty allowance will put her up as one of the highest rated, and Oisin Orr is one of the jockeys to keep an eye on with a 22% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow: Super Saturday

     

    It’s one of the busiest, craziest and most hectic days of the racing calendar. It’s Super Saturday. Newmarket, York, Ascot, even Chester, have big races on offer.

    Including the July Cup, Bunbury Cup and the John Smith’s Cup, it’s a punters’ paradise. Let’s take you through the three big meetings, and find the Best Bets.

     

    Newmarket

    Truth Be Told

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    15:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – Great Truth @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    This is one of the top two-year-old races of the season, and Godolphin have a great record in recent years. Native Trail and Master Of The Seas came from this race, and we all know what Native Trail did as a three-year-old. He has staying pedigree on both sides of his family, which won’t be a problem staying seven furlongs at two.

    On his debut, he was a little green at Leicester, but he won with plenty in hand, and you can’t discount a 5-and-a-half-length win. On past trends, and breeding, Great Truth has sold me.

     

    Two Blessed

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    16:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Bless Him @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Bless Him is now a nine-year-old, and has bucked the trends for this race as winners usually are between four and six. But he can still hack it at the top level, with an encouraging fifth in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. And he is only two pounds higher than his winning mark in last year’s race.

    It’s worth noting that Jamie Spencer is not riding on Saturday, so Callum Shepherd gets the leg up.

    Star Of Orion has been quite a consistent horse this season, with two seconds at the start of the season. But Ralph Beckett seems to have laid him out for this race, electing not to go to Royal Ascot, and keeps his handicap mark at 92. Which is six pounds lower than last season’s mark.

    He’s versatile on all grounds, and is good value each-way player at 12/1 (General)

     

    Little Too Big

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    16:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 4/1 (General)

    When the odds came out for the race, I was shocked that Little Big Bear was at 4/1.

    He got beat at Ascot, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad horse. He’s a super sprinter! In fact he does have a good omen on his side, most recent winners have come from the Commonwealth Cup, but they didn’t win it.

    Only Muhuraar has done the double, which doesn’t put Shaquille in a good spot. Plus the allowance that Little Big Bear is getting, puts him as the best rated horse in the race. For me, I wouldn’t be surprised if punters take advantage of this, and he’s backed down.

     

    York

    Saturday Spirit

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    15:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Spirit Dancer @ 9/1 (General)

    This year’s edition of the John Smith’s Cup is probably one of the best.

    Each horse has strong claims, but I’ve gone for a regular at York. Spirit Dancer has been in the top four for the past five races, and his rating has only gone up five pounds in that period. He loves the firm ground, although the weather may set in at the weekend, as heavy showers are forecast. But he is versatile, as he can run well on good-to-soft ground.

    Northern trainers always do well at York, particularly Richard Fahey, and he will have had this race in mind since he came fourth in last year’s renewal.

    I also like the chances of Millebosc, who makes his reappearance on the track after 227 days. Horses who have been off the track have won the past three renewals of this race, and Haggas will have set out this horse for the race.

    He’s only had one run in the UK, a fifth on the Lingfield all-weather. His record shows that his only win came on debut, but he did come third in a Prix du Jockey Club, behind St. Mark’s Basilica, so his Group  form could come through. 12/1 (General) is a respectable price.

     

    Ascot

    The Mighty Mighty

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    14:20 – Summer Mile (Group Two) – Mighty Ulysees @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    Another horse who has been laid off the track is Mighty Ulysees. He came ever so close in last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes, but didn’t kick on in his final two starts. Now he’s back, and he is rated as one of the best in the field, which must be taken note. He’s drawn wide, which shouldn’t be a problem for Robert Havlin. He can land another big Saturday winner for the Gosdens, who are operating at a 29% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day Two

     

    A disappointing Day One for Four To Follow, but we aim to make it up in the next two days, as TWO Group Ones’ rattle towards us. Here are my tips for Day Two at the July Festival.

     

    Newmarket

    Seen It, Did It

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    13:50 – bet365 Heritage Handicap – Seendid @ 15/2 (BetVictor, 10Bet)

    William Haggas and Tom Marquand are having a, somewhat, quiet season. But I feel they’ve laid this horse out perfectly for its big test. Seendid is by Dubawi and is out of a middle-distance mare, so has plenty of stamina. He also has crucial course and distance experience, after breaking his maiden on the July course at the back-end of June. He made all that day, but given that there are a few more horses to contest with, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marquand drops him in behind the leader and lead the rest home in the straight. He’s good value too at the top of the market.

    And don’t knock off Knockbrex for Charlie Johnston. His father Mark has an incredible record in the race, winning the race four times on the spin between 2013and 2016. He then won it in 2020 with Zabeel Champion. I’m sure Charlie will have heeded some advice from his father, and Knockbrex will not be without hope. Winning from the front can be done on the July course, ask Seendid. If he learns to settle, he’ll be a good each-way shout, especially with some past form behind Royal Ascot winner Gregory, at 10/1 (General)

     

    Dream of a Win

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    15:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Live Your Dream @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Live Your Dream has almost been a revelation since returning to the track. Placed twice, including a second at the Royal meeting, you feel he’ll be too much class for the field in this race. On pure ratings, he’s the only horse rated at 104 which is top weight. But class horses can defy the top weight, and he has been improving all the time. Today should be his day to shine.

    One at a better price is Ravens Ark. He’s a quite a consistent stayer, with two seconds to his name already this season. He seems to be versatile on all grounds, and a mark of 81 is only a pound higher than his previous winning one. It’s a bit of a disappointing ‘heritage handicap’, but Ravens Ark represents some value at 11/1 (General)

     

    Remarkable July

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    15:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Remarquee @ 4/1 (General)

    I’ve always viewed this race as a bit of a faux pas Group One. It hasn’t been won by the greats in recent times, and I can’t imagine we’ll see a great come out of this race either. But Remarquee does stand out to me. She was only a length behind Tahiyra at Ascot, which is a big result considering how the race panned out. She gets a nine pound allowance, which will be massively beneficial to her. Via Sistina is a good horse, but the ground will come into question. And it’ll be interesting to see Nashwa stepping down in trip for her reappearance, and I think the Gosdens will be looking to the Nassau, and this is just a prep race. That makes Remarquee the stand out for me.

     

    York

    Swinging In Summer

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    15:40 – Summer Stakes (Group Three) – Swingalong @ 15/8 (General)

    Swingalong is back at the scene of her last win, in the Lowther. York over six furlongs was a great match for Swingalong, and Karl Burke will know that. She is a high-class filly, and could easily turn into a top rated sprinter, given she also finished third in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot. And with 14 winners so far in July for Burke, this race could not come at a better time for an in-form stable. I’m surprised she’s odds against, frankly.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day One

     

    After a brief break, Four To Follow is back, with three days of fantastic racing to be had at Newmarket’s beautiful July course.

    Day One sees the favourites holding all the aces.

     

    Answer a Prayer

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    13:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Saint George @ 11/4 (Unibet)

    Over at the ‘The Top Three’, Ash has stuck with the favourite.

    However, this is the first race that really will test the form. And with Gregory been given an entry in the Goodwood Cup, it seems that the top six may become group horses out of it. It looks positive.

    We know that he gets his staying power out of his dam’s side, and Roaring Lion has had a 13% strike rate of progeny winners this season.

    Tower Of London, faces a steep rise in rating, whilst we know that Saint George can perform at this level, and that’s why he’s my pick.

     

    Summer Breeze

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    14:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Purosangue @ 9/4 (Unibet)

    I first came across this Andrew Balding colt when having a peruse one evening, and found out that I knew this horses mother.

    Avon Breeze ran for the Whitaker stable, who my family still own horses with, and was a fantastic edition to the stable.

    She wasn’t a filly that performed at the top level, but she did win a class two handicap at Ripon in 2016. Her daughter Liberty Breeze also runs for the Whitaker’s, and is having a good season so far.

    I watched Purosangue’s debut and thought that he was a smart horse, and won with plenty in hand. This horse seems to be heading in the right direction, and can prove his class for the Balding team.

     

    Height Of July

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    15:00 – bet365 Heritage H’cap – Washington Heights @ 5/1 (General)

    Sooner or later, this horse has to win a race. He’s got closer to the winning line with each run, being denied by a head on his last run at York.

    He finished second to the now-Group One winner Shaquille at the start of the season, and downed twice by Quinault.

    Firm ground seems to be his preference, which puts me in a difficult position. We won’t’ know how the ground is performing until the first race, because the Newmarket grounds-team are irrigating tonight.

    The ground is officially good to firm at time of writing, but whether it’ll stay that way is an unknown.

    But a big plus for this horse is the booking of Ryan Moore, who has to be the best jockey in the world. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a jockey with a 41% strike rate.

    Eminency is the each-way appeal in the race for me.

    She finished fourth in the same York sprint handicap as Washington Heights, and has only been raised a pound. Once again, ground will be a concern if it’s not firmer ground, but as explained in the first selection, we’re playing the waiting game.

    Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which I always see as a positive, and John Fahy and Clive Cox are both just starting to turn the formbook heading into July. Nice bet at 10/1 (General)

     

    One for the Acca

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    15:40 – Princess of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Adayar @ 1/2 (Boylesports, 10Bet)

    It’s a simple equation really. One is rated nine pounds better than the next best, dropping a grade below, and only has four runners to contend with.

    Israr is the clear threat, but Israr hasn’t performed at Group Two level, let alone win. In fact he hasn’t won a class one race yet, which puts Adayar in the driving seat.

    Adayar is definitely one for the multiples, and a banker on day one of the July meeting.

    The very best of luck!

  • Boodles July Festival 2023 picks: July Cup favourite well-set

     

    As the summer rolls on with the Royal Meeting in the books, racing returns to Newmarket this week for the 2023 Boodles July Festival.

    Three days of top-class action at HQ are headlined by Saturday’s July Cup, as rivals square off in a re-run of last month’s Commonwealth Cup.

    With 21 races on the slate, once more we have picked one to watch across across each day.

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    Quinault; bet365 Handicap, Thursday, 15:00 (Class 2, 6f)

    To say Quinault has enjoyed a dominant spring and summer would be quite the understatement.

    A gelding formerly on the books of Charlie Appleby, trainer Stuart Williams has seen eventual rousing success since taking the reins in February.

    Third and then sixth on the A/W at Chelmsford, a return to Essex in April saw a maiden win and the start of a dominant run.

     

    Then switching to the turf at Brighton in May, the horse proved his class.

    Following a double on the Rowley Mile and a narrow win at York by a nose, Quinault now goes for a sixth win on the spin.

    Unbeaten at Newmarket, can he convert on the July course?

    Washington Heights will seek revenge from the Knavesmire and Quinault may not go off as favourite.

    Therefore, a 13/2 shot looks decent.

     

    Coppice; Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes, Friday, 15:35 (Class 1, 1m)

    Friday’s antepost punt is so far backing George Boughey’s impressive Via Sistina, but might Coppice show her hand?

    Dropping into Suffolk with a win from the Sandringham, there is slight doubt over Frankie Dettori’s presence this week.

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    Regardless of jockey, the 3yo filly is coming good, going for three-in-a-row here.

    Having won over 7f, this longer trip remains her preference.

    The slightly softer turf may be of concern for John & Thady Gosden, but with wins on varying ground, Coppice can challenge at a healthy 7/1 with William Hill.

     

    Shaquille; Pertemps Network July Cup Stakes, Saturday, 16:35 (Class 1, 6f)

    And so to the main event of the July Festival, the July Cup.

    Shaquille looks mighty indeed.

    Julie Camacho’s colt has become the pride and joy of the Hughes, Rawlings and O’Shaughnessy team.

    In seven career outings, Shaquille has been beaten just once – last August at York and like Quinault goes for six-in-a-row.

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    With three turf wins this season, victories in the Howden and Carnarvon were capped off with Group 1 success in the Commonwealth Cup.

    On that day, Shaquille came out on top over Little Big Bear.

    Renewing hostilities with the ride of AP O’Brien, last year’s Duchess of Cambridge bridesmaid, Lezoo is also in attendance.

    Arguably the NAP of the Festival, few could could make a case against Shaquille, and at 7/4 with BetVictor still carries value.

  • Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Day Three was a Royal day at Royal Ascot. His Majesty the King had the King George V winner in Desert Hero, and the King of Royal Ascot, Frankie Dettori won his final Gold Cup, to take his tally to an astonishing NINE. Today sees many bankers of the week, and it might be a day for the punters. Here are my Day Four picks.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    RIGHT ROYAL PRECESSION

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Tahyira will win. It’s as simple as that. She has faced Meditate three times in her career and has flew past her on all occasions, and there’s nothing to say she won’t here. Yes Ryan Moore is the leading rider, but I bet he wishes he was riding Tahiyra as she oozes pure class. She’s already been tipped up on my ‘Four To Follow’ page, TWICE. That just shows how talented she is. A great outside draw and she won’t see another rival in sight.

    DOUBLE DELIGHT

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    E/W BET: Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Lezoo @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & Shouldvebeenaring @ 28/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Little Big Bear is the class horse in the race, and has a perfect draw sat right next to the pace. He should win this, and is one of the certainties of the day. The question is who finishes in behind?

    Lezoo is back to her best distance. She never looked like a miler, which beggared belief when she ran in the 1000 Guineas. She won a Group One at two over six furlongs, and bagged the Princess Margaret over C&D before her Newmarket success. King Frankie has just started to get into his winning stride and loves riding for his owner friend Marc Chan. Second best horse in the field and has good stand-side draw.

    Then I have to have Shouldvebeenaring on side for this race. Bradsell flew down the centre of the course in the King’s Stand, and gave Little Big Bear and Shouldvebeenaring a big form boost, after coming out of the Sandy Lane behind these two. She is already a seasoned campaigner and remarkably consistent and can’t be left out of the places.

    Tricast: 1. Little Big Bear, 2. Lezoo, 3. Shouldvebeenaring

    OH RYAN, OH AIDAN, OH JACKIE

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    Handicap Best: Sandringham H’cap – Jackie Oh @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Once again, the handicaps are a bit of a struggle, but this immediately caught my eye. Aidan O’Brien loves putting an underperforming horse into a handicap. And Jackie Oh was disappointing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, and brings the Group One form to an underwhelming handicap. She’s perfect for the mile, as her grandsire is Rock of Gibraltar and a perfect stand side rail draw will help her progress. Plenty of questions about experience, and ground form. But Courage Mon Amis answered all those questions yesterday and Jackie Oh can do today.

    I was also took with Clounmacon in this race. Surprisingly this Johnny Murtagh’s only horse he is sending over to the Royal meeting, which must mean it has the best chance out of his stable, he won’t be sending her over for peanuts. Only beaten by a head in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, and she’s only been put up 2lbs. She’s nice in the weights, and a middle draw might not be too bad, as jockeys’ have said the faster ground seems to be there. Nice e/w punt at 14/1 (General)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Matrika @ 8/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 11/10 (WIN) (William Hill), LEZOO (E/W) @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill) & SHOULDVEBEENARING @ 28/1 (E/W) (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

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    15:40 – Duke of Edinburgh H’cap – Al Nafir @ 11/2 (Unibet, William Hill)

    16:20 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – TAHIYRA (NAP) @ 8/13 (Unibet, William Hill)

    17:00 – Sandringham H’cap – JACKIE OH @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports), CLOUNMACON @ 14/1 e/w (General)

    17:35 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – King Of Steel @ Evs (Boylesports)

    18:10 – Palace of Holyrood House H’cap – Frankness @ 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetGoodwin)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow Tahiyra the Talent

    Four To Follow Tahiyra the Talent

    A special Sunday Four to Follow as we take a look at 1000 Guineas Day. Last year Cachet ran them ragged, but this year we could see a return to the dominance of Ireland and Dubai. Here are four to watch out for on Sunday afternoon.

    1:15 – Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) – Adayar @ 6/5 (General) & Migration (W/O Adayar)

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    Everyone is looking forward to welcoming back Adayar to the track. It seems an age since he won the Derby, given that we have only seen him five times over two years. Charlie Appleby has said the aim for this horse is the Prince of Wales’s at Royal Ascot, and this could be a good starting point. Clear on ratings, the question is the ground. It turned to soft ground before the 2000 Guineas and there is a chance of a light shower today too. Watch out for bottomless ground.

    One who can handle the soft and the heavy is Migration, who kicked off the flat season by winning the Lincoln in testing conditions. He’s usually a handicap horse, but has run in open company before. It might look a stern test on paper, but he’s the one with the proven stamina on testing ground. No problem with stepping up in trip, particularly on soft ground.

    1:50 – Howden Handicap – Berkshire Rocco @ 11/1 (William Hill)

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    It’s another wide-open handicap over 1m 6F. It’s a tough call but I’ve gone for Berkshire Rocco. He’s ben starting to get the hang of things over on the all-weather, but 1m 6F over soft ground is ideal. And despite being third highest in the weights, he’s down to his lowest mark since the 2019 Zetland Stakes, racing as a two-year-old. It will be interesting to see how he fairs on his first return to the track in three-and-a-half-years

    I also fancy the chances of Legendary Day. He seems to be on the drift, but cleverly avoids the five-pound penalty with jockey Jamie Powell taking 5lbs off. He reappeared winning over 2m on soft ground at Ripon and is versatile on any ground. He’s been turned out quickly, but just like Kitty’s Light last week it could pay out.

    One to consider at a price is Torcello. A soft ground specialist and dour stayer. With age, he’s stepped down in trip to 1m 4F, but on soft ground he has licence to go further. He ran a strange race on reappearance this season, so hopefully we see the best of him today.

    3:00 – Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) – Astral Beau @ 11/1 (Boylesports, BetUK)

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    Astral Beau is the soft ground specialist of the field. She annihilated the field at Doncaster in a listed contest and her rating allows to make the big step up in grade. And despite being surrounded with horses who are more than capable than her, she loves the mud, and at double figure prices she’s the one to have.

    3:40 – QIPCO 1000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – Tahiyra @ 7/4 (Betfred, BetUK)

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    I’m on the Tahyira train. She is a talented filly, and it showed when she won the Moyglare on soft ground. She may be inexperienced on form, but the talent she has from both sire and dam have merged into this one and there is no reason why Tahiyra cannot win. Meditate is good, but she has some ground to make up on the favourite.

    I also feel that Mawj deserves a big chance here, but has the bookies quoting her at double-figure prices. She had a fantastic Winter in Dubai, stepping up to the mile trip without hesitation and taking to it brilliantly. Mawj is also a half-sister to Modern Games and Modern News, who both gained blac-type over the mile trip. You could say, she’s bred for a race like this.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow A Royal Guineas at Newmarket

    Four To Follow A Royal Guineas at Newmarket

    The first big classic of the season is upon us. The 2000 Guineas always gives a good race, and some great winners. Whilst we celebrate the new King in London, there could be a royal winner at HQ. Here are four horses to follow on 2000 Guineas Day.

    2:50 – Howden Handicap – Celsius @ 20/1 (General)

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    Given that the field is around 7/1, this is a wide-open contest for the first of the big sprints of the season. It’s worth looking down the market for one at a good price and Celsius has grabbed my attention. A great record from long layoffs, including 4 wins and a second, he has the talented amateur jockey Harry Davies on board, claiming 3lbs which brings Celsius’ mark down to a winning one. He’s had one run over the Rowley Mile, finishing second, and the firm ground is a big plus.

    Paul and OIiver Cole may have a fantastic Saturday at Newmarket and have Leap Abroad running in this one. His record fresh isn’t bad, and the firm ground will also play a key role in how this horse runs. It’s also his time of the season to be backing him as he only ran three times last year between April and June.

    3:25 – Howden Suffolk Stakes – Majestic @ 5/1 (General)

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    Last season he scooped the big prize of winning the Cambridgeshire of C&D, but he performed well in difficult conditions to finish fourth in the Lincoln on reappearance this season. He stays at the same mark, with George Bass taking 3lbs off him, and in better conditions it’s hard not to see this horse finishing in the frame again.

    Turntable is my next best in the race. It’s his first run for Harry Eustace, and on his record he should fare well. His record fresh has improved throughout his career, winning first time out last year. His record on the Rowley Mile is phenomenal with three wins and a second under his belt over C&D. Kayia Fraser knows this horse well and is bidding to make it a hattrick.

    One with an outside chance is Magical Morning, formerly with the Gosden’s. He joins Amy Murphy and has wintered over in Dubai, before being narrowly defeated at Saint-Cloud. His mark has now fallen below 100, which gives him room to perform and in a field of 17 suits him well, rather than fields larger than 20.

    4:00 – Palace House Stakes (Group 3) – Twilight Calls @ 100/30 (Boylesports)

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    I can’t look past the favourite for this one. A great record fresh, and a class jockey booking in Ryan Moore. He finished fifth in last year’s contest, but hasn’t been seen since narrowly losing out to Nature Strip since Royal Ascot. I feel that that’s the target for the Henry Candy sprinter this season, and can get off to a good start here.

    4:40 – QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – ROYAL SCOTSMAN @ 9/1 (General)

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    When I watched the Dewhurst Stakes last year, I immediately said that Royal Scotsman would win the 2000 Guineas. It was an eye-catching run, from a horse who was fiercely campaigned at two. He’s by Kingman, but will get the speed from his dam’s side. Surprisingly, horses that head straight for the Guineas have a great record in recent years, and Royal Scotsman has, rightly, had no prep run. He should turn the form around against Chaldean (who ran on well despite jockey-less in the Greenham). He’s been my ante-post pick since last October and I still don’t have any doubts about him.

    Two horses that could run a big race at a big price are Craven Stakes winner Indestructible and Godolphin’s Noble Style. Indestructible has baffled Kevin Stott, in terms of how big he is in the betting. A Craven winner who; more than handled the track, has one of the most in form combinations in racing and can perform on the going is 28/1 with Boylesports. Surely the punters will back him in by this afternoon.

    Noble Style has only had three runs, and no prep run. But I’d much prefer him to his compatriot Silver Knott. He is by Kingman, a proven miler, and out of Eartha Kitt, who wasn’t a bad sprinter. And Noble Style’s damsire produced Addeybb, so breeding isn’t problem for me. The form from the Gimcrack Stakes is incredible, with winners left, right and centre. Noble Style is worth a good poke at 16/1 general price.

    The very best of luck!

    Tune in tomorrow for another Four To Follow for the 1000 Guineas.