It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend and the Cesarewitch. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.
Newmarket
It’s Not Winter Yet
3:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (GROUP ONE) – The Lion In Winter @ 10/11 (General)
I was incredibly taken when seeing him last time out in the Acomb Stakes at York. It’s never really known as a trial race, but sometimes it is used before races like the Champagne Stakes or the National in Ireland. The Lion In Winter has been given a good break since then, and the form has worked out perfectly. Steady on with backing him for the 2000 Guineas yet, but I feel he has this race in the bag.
And Are We?
3:40 – Ceasrewitch Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ndaawi @ 12/1 (General)
An incredibly competitive handicap, but my main pick has been let off lightly. Ndaawi ran an impressive second to Nurburgring in the Galway hurdle, but is down a pound for running seventh in the Ascot Stakes on ground he didn’t like. With ground like this in the Autumn, he can make the light weight on his back work. Jumps trainers are getting an ever increasing affection for this race, like Willie and Emmet Mullins, etc.
Talking of the latter, Jacovec Cavern represents one of the fancier being backed for the race. He finished close up to Busselton at the Galway Festival, which is often a great pointer to the latter Autumn marathons. He’s only been risen three pounds for his close run back in July and as a result is right down the weights. Hayley Turner can deliver on a big day and make it back-t-back wins in the race for E. Mullins at 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred).
One who is surprisingly well-in on the handicap is Premiere Ligne. He’s been incredibly consistent all season, with one win and five places to his name, four of them seconds. He hasn’t been beaten by more than two lengths in his previous six runs and comes from the Cesarewitch Trial. An even bigger plus is the five pounds been taken off by an in-form claimer. Great each-way price at 14/1 (General).
York
Strike It Hot
2:40 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Strike Red @ 13/2 (Betfred)
A surprisingly disappointing season for Strike Red. He has only finished in the places once, but hasn’t had anything to show for last season’s performance. However, he loves York. One win and one place in four runs at the track shows that he isn’t bad. He also performs late on in his season, with four of his career wins coming in either September or October. He’ll love the soft ground and should finally get his elusive win. He also won this race in 2022 off a pound lower mark.
The Bell Conductor may have most of his wins over five furlongs, but shaped well when winning over six at Chester last time out. He has a clear preference for soft ground and has progressed well enough to this level. He’s only been raised two pounds for the run and has a nice draw towards the stand side, which usually is a slight bias on soft ground. Well worth 25/1 (General).
Hyperfocus is also one not to discount. It was a similar story last year when he finished second, despite the long odds, and history might repeat itself. Plus the softer it is for him, the better. He has won twice this season, albeit at class four level, but it shows that the 10 year-old has some fight in him left, and fought for second off a three pound higher mark last year. I’m not abandoning him at 33/1 (General).
Chepstow
Beach Baby
2:45 – Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Springwell Bay @ 7/2 (General)
It seemed the natural progression for Springwell Bay to go over the bigger obstacles after a great season. The former staying hurdler drops back in trip, but should progress further in time. Another benefit is having Jonjo (& AJ) O’Neill as the trainer, with Jonjo, in the last five seasons, one of the more prolific trainers in Monmouthshire. Good pedigree for fences, he should be perfect first time out in the Autumn.
Best of Luck!
