As flat season winds down, interest is growing in Sea of Roses making a play in Friday’s Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes.
With the rain tumbling down on Day 1 of the Cambridgeshire Meeting at Newmarket, turf which has largely been good or good to firm since July, has taken a turn.
Now officially soft, the Suffolk going has been shaken up, with Ryan Moore and Time Lock still the pick for Friday’s feature race.
However, with the ground a good deal juicier now, could Oisin Murphy throw his hat in the ring?
Sea of fortune?
Despite a wetter than average summer for UK racegoers and punters, the last few months, have remained largely dry.
However, the the first deluge of Autumn this week have not only seen a change of season but a dramatic switch in conditions.
That could play handsomely in the direction of Sea of Roses.
For a Group 1 race, on soft ground there is little in the way of form to go by, but Andrew Balding’s 4yo is one of the few runners not lightly raced.
Not only that, the daughter of Sea The Moon comes here with a win at Windsor last month on soft ground, taking down Deira Mile – who went on to finish fourth in the St Leger a fortnight ago.
As Oisin Murphy jumps aboard for a sixth time, the Irishman and filly are yet to win together, but the rain will only serve them well.
Ryan may not be Lock
Of course, Time Lock goes in the Dubai Stakes as favourite and with good reason as defending champ after last year’s four-length romp.
However, could the ground now make things a little bit interesting?
The 9/2 winner 12 months ago – the 5yo’s last race win – the deck was a lot firmer and with half her career wins on faster turf, there is just a little question mark hanging over Ryan Moore.
Time Lock is out and clear! 🔥
She fulfils her promise from the early part of the season to win the Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld, Dubai Stakes 🥇#ITVRacing | @RogerCharlton pic.twitter.com/Wab1RtQ56Q
— ITV Racing (@itvracing) September 29, 2023
Trainer Harry Charlton has been met with frustration twice this term at Newmarket, and finishing flat last of a small field in the Coronation Cup, has critics to answer.
Time Lock may be the class of the 8 runners here in terms of pedigree, but does she really want it enough? Quite literally, only time will tell.
Challengers
Aside from the two in the spotlight, Billy Loughnane and Divina Grace loiter to throw a spanner in the works.
A two-time winner at HQ, the 4yo filly won at the Cambridgeshire Meet last term but is yet to race on any turf that could be described as softer ground.
That is not to rule her chances out – far from it – after a campaign of six races, finishing at worst 5th.
At similarly longer prices, firstly, Francophone has a outside shot after winning on debut on good to soft, but as a 7f contest, this trip looks a step to far for the moment.
Meanwhile, Hollie Doyle and Sinology – friendless in the markets at 33/1 with William Hill – have all but been dismissed on current form.
Yet, as a winner over 1m2f on softish turf at Newbury back in April, has perhaps a better shot than the bookies think.
The Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Stakes takes place on Friday at 2:25pm UK time.
