Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Four To Follow: Babouche Babouche

    Four To Follow: Babouche Babouche

    After the thrill of Glorious Goodwood, we calm down a little before the Ebor Festival in a couple of weeks time. Today, it’s Group One action over in Ireland with the Phoenix Stakes. The highly exciting Whistlejacket takes on the unbeaten Babouche, in a fascinating contest. Plus three races from the UK, to make it a regular four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Running Up That Hill

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    4:35 – Phoenix Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Babouche @ 5/2 (General)

    Despite Whisltejacket being a full brother to Little Big Bear who won this race two years ago, there still is chinks in the armour that can be exploited. Babouche is the one who can exploit those minor faults. She was a much better finisher than Camille Pissaro and should step up in trip in the very near future. In recent years, Aidan O’Brien has loosened his chokehold on the race and Ger Lyons can pounce with this exciting filly

     

    Haydock

    Shadwell Shining

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    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Anmaat @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    Despite being very, very lightly raced, Anmaat is a horse with fantastic ability. Owen Burrows seems to bring him out at particular moments of the season, including this race which he won in 2022. He was last seen winning a French Group One. In May 2023. He’s incredibly consistent, goes well fresh and has gone well on good-to-firm. Clearly the one to beat and the one to side with.

     

    Good Chois

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    4:45 – Dick Hern Stakes (Listed) – Choisya @ 9/1 (General)

    This Listed race has the potential to be the race of the day across the UK and Ireland. Some talented fillies take to the track, but only a couple of them go on firm ground. An it’s those horses to side with in a tight race like this.

    Choisya hasn’t been seen since May at Goodwood, with that race producing a winner at Goodwood and a winner in Ireland in the months since. Her last win on turf was on good-to-soft but won on good-to-firm ground at Haydock in her only other win on turf in her career. Simon & Ed Crisford are again in decent form and her price seems overpriced.

    Dora Milaje may be the outsider, but is one who relishes firm ground. She has made a great step up in class from class four handicaps to listed contests. She steps down in distance on her preferred ground, and may have been her excuse when finishing fourth in the Pomfet Stakes at Pontefract last month. Still a good each-way price considering she’s an outsider at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Sweet Splash

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    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Lake Victoria @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Lake Victoria is one from one after edging her maiden win ahead of Red Letter. Since then Red Letter has followed up and franked the form, plus the fifth placed horse has too. With form on her side, plus good pedigree related to former O’Brien stable Bluegrass. She might not have the hopes of Ballydoyle to become a future star, but experience doesn’t count for nothing.

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day Five – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day Five – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today it’s the Stewards’ Cup as the sprinters, once again, take their turn to thunder down the hill on the Sussex Downs. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Glorious Ghost

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    1:50 – Glorious Stakes (Group Three) – Phantom Flight @ 11/4 (BetVictor)

    A small contest, with plenty of tactics. But, due to the lack of firm ground performers I settle with Phantom Flight. He’s the only horse with firm ground form, and beat Al Aasy on it too. Aimeric also acts on good ground but has never won it and neither Lion’s Pride nor Relentless Voyager have either. Ground preference is crucial, particularly when five horses are separated by a point in the market.

     

    Fair Weather

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    2:25 – Summer Handicap – Fairbanks @ 3/1 (General)

    Fairbanks has come alive this season in handicaps. Two wins and a second in five runs shows how consistent he is. If you add on his sixth start, a one-and-a-half mile handicap on firm ground make it three wins. He’s consistently on the upgrade and, despite a six pound rise, shows great promise stepping up to a mile-and-six.

    Charlie Johnston has only managed one winner at Goodwood this week, with Arisaig in a class three fillies handicap. However, if he wants to carry on his father’s tradition of winning big handicaps at Goodwood this is his last chance. He has two in this race, and I favour what the market determine as his weaker horse, Knightswood. He won twice last season, including once on firm ground. He’s dropped a pound after finishing fourth to Fairbanks at Newmarket, but his weight in the race in near the bottom, which makes him competitive at 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Course Choir

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    3:00 – Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group Two) – Caius Chorister @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    Two years ago, Caius Chorister sent punters flying when she won five-in-a-row, culminating in a handicap at Goodwood. She then went and finished second in a Melrose at York, but since then she’s morphed herself into an underestimated, staying filly. Dropping well back to 14 furlongs will suit her better than the marathon trip of two-and-half miles, and she has firm ground which she loves. That win in 2022 at the Glorious meeting also gives her another positive.

    Grateful only had one race as a two-year-old, but has had three wins at three, including a Group Three over the distance. Her pedigree is astonishing. By Galileo and out of a six time Group One winner Tepin, who won the Queen Anne, Woodbine Mile and Breeders’ Cup mile, she has some expectation. To see her priced at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) is frankly an insult to her bloodline.

     

    Goodwood Gallop

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    3:35 – Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Purosangue @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Purosangue is made for this race. He’s won on firm ground before, and Andrew Balding has experience of winning the race with a three-year-old before. He ran a great race, just pipped by Makarova at Sandown. He’s handicapped well, despite having a rating of 101. Drawn right in the middle of the track, he has plenty of options to decide where the pace lies. Particularly with Oisin Murphy on board. A brilliant combination.

    Lethal Levi came second last time out over seven furlongs, but is a sprinter at heart. He won over six furlongs back in May at Newbury. Since then he’s gone up seven pounds in four runs, which is respectable and reapplies the blinkers again today. He hasn’t won off a mark of 98, but he’s low in the weights and has acts on firm ground. Player at 11/1 (William Hill).

    Rumstar came second back in May at Newbury and wasn’t impressive at Royal Ascot this season. He unseated in this race last season, but has won at Goodwood in a nursery on firm ground. So long as he doesn’t trip out of the stalls, he should have a good chance. Particularly when drawn next to a key area of pace. Value at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day Four – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day Four – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today the sprinters take their turn to thunder down the hill on the Sussex Downs. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Super Stayers

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    1:50 – Goodwood Handicap – Super Superjack @ 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    One of the most unique flat handicaps, taking place in possibly the best scenery of them all, no wonder the race is named after the course. But who can win this marathon trip?

    Super Superjack hadn’t been seen at all last season and has already had two runs this season. Both have been underwhelming, but he’s down to an attractive mark at a race he’s been aimed at. Don’t forget he came near second in this race 2 years ago, on similar ground. He has every right to go for it again.

    The horse who beat Super Superjack also returns to this race on an attractive mark. Master Milliner also took an elongated break and finished well back in the field on his previous two starts. He’s now three pounds lower than his win in 2022, and it’s clear he’s been aimed to regain his title in the race. Worth an each-way play at 12/1 (William Hill).

     

    Tricky Group Three

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    2:25 – Thoroughbred Stakes (Group Three) – Al Musmak @ 3/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Over the seven furlongs, and horses coming from all different directions, this is possibly the hardest race to work out this week. I’ve gone with the favourite, Al Musmak. Some may question his ability on the ground but he came second as a two-year-old on firm ground, and his latest experience on firm ground at Ascot was too far for him. Dropped down to seven, on firmish conditions may suit him better and looks versatile between seven furlongs and a mile.

    One who should act on the ground, at a price, is Boiling Point. He was beaten in a narrow finish, but didn’t act himself at Ascot in the Jersey Stakes. That being said, he may was outpaced by other firm liking horses, and finished well enough down the field. Despite the wide draw, he can act on the ground and bounce back to the form he showed in the King Charles II Stakes in May. 16/1 (General).

     

    Golden Horse

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    3:00 – Golden Mile Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Perotto @ 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    All the mile handicap specialists you know and love are back for this fascinating contests. Good old Perotto hardly lets anyone down when he’s on his day. Today, just looks like that. Two runs this season have seen him come third each time, and he’s now up to mark of 102. Whilst some might say that’s high, he’s only gone up four pounds in four runs, showing his consistency. He has form winning at Goodwood, which helps his cause even further.

    Orbaan is another really likeable miler. He has been disappointing on the big stage, particularly last year when everything went wrong. He’s been dropped down into class four company, and found form this season winning the Carlisle Bell on firm ground. With a low weight on his back, in a decent nick of form, he can find his way back into the big time. 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    Big & Fast

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    3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group Two) – Big Evs @ 9/4 (General)

    Firm ground, fast course, middle draw and alongside pace. What can go wrong for Big Evs? With Michael Appleby carding up with Big Mojo on Wednesday, surely that had to be amuse-bouce before the big race today. He ran creditably at Ascot behind Asfoora, who will face the question marks as Goodwood isn’t as conventional as Ascot is.

    Starlust managed to regain himself by winning the Listed City Walls Stakes at York after disappointing at Group One level at Ascot. Firm ground is a question mark, having disappointed at Ascot before, but he may have been out of his depth that day, and it’s worth having another go at him today, to try and find that extra place. 8/1 (William Hill, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Three – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Three – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today the best fillies take their turn to roll around the course, with a couple of three-year-olds looking to continue the electric form from the 1000 Guineas. There’s also the big Galway Hurdle this evening too. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Goodwood

    Hurricane Season

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Tropical Storm @ 9/2 (General)

    Tropical Storm is still a maiden, but is improving run by run. He’s a half-sister to black-type sprinter Purosangue, another horse I really like at the moment. He ran a cracker of a Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, managing to get within a length of the winner. The form from that race has been boosted by Whistlejacket winning at Newmarket. Firm ground will suit, as will the step up in distance.

     

    Renaissance Stayer

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Jan Brueghel @ Evs (William Hill)

    Still a three-year-old, unbeaten, and the potential to enter the stayers division later this year. Jan Brueghel has been magnificent, and it begs the question why he has been steadily on the drift. The rest of the field have all come from the Derby, apart from one who was a consistent handicapper. The Derby form, bar City Of Troy has not worked out at all, and Jan Brueghel is unexposed at this trip and ground. Exciting.

     

    The Fat Lady Sings

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    3:35 – Nassau Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Opera Singer @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt in recent years this race has favoured three-year-olds. Nashwa and Winter are notable three-year-old winners, and this year’s crop look extra special. Opera Singer was agonisingly close at Royal Ascot, and was backed up when Porta Fortuna won at Newmarket. Despite the majority of her family all milers, she does have staying power from her sire Justify. Top rated and bags of talent, she can finally find her elusive win this season.

    Or can Elmalka repeat her Guineas shock again. She was also involved in the race that Porta Fortuna won, but a wide draw may have let her down in the early stages. Despite only four runs, she is still improving, I think. And she won’t have a problem stepping up in distance either as she is a half-sister to Dubai Turf winner Benbatl. Great price at 8/1 (General).

     

    Galway

    Bed Bugs Bite

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Daddy Long Legs @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    One trainer has dominated this race. And no prizes for guessing who. Nicky Henderson may be bringing an English challenger over, but hardly any English horses win at Galway. Daddy Long Legs was tipped to go to the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, but didn’t and has since won at Punchestown. He wasn’t at his best at Tipperary when he stopped racing after three out. Things should be in better order today.

    Jesse Evans was only beaten by a head in last year’s contest and could complete an historic Galway Plate and Hurdle double, after Pinkerton won yesterday. Taking Connor Stone-Walsh’s claim on, he ends up being a pound lower than last year. Which makes his each-way price of 14/1 (BetVictor) an absolute steal.

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Two – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Two – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today the best milers take their turn to roll around the course, with one horses looking to right his wrongs. There’s also the big Galway Plate this evening too. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Goodwood

    Climbing Up The Mountain

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    2:25 – Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Kathmandu @ 4/1 (General)

    An lightly raced filly, who is interesting at the price. She wasn’t up to scratch in the Prix Jean Prat, but came so close in the French 1000 Guineas. Kathmandu has grown up since her third in the Nell Gwyn stakes, and firmer ground should be a more comfortable challenge for her. Dropping down from Group One’s may suit her even better.

    Pretty Crystal hasn’t had the best seasons since winning the Nell Gwyn, but has never really had her ground. She seemed to be more of a sprinter than a miler, but was found out at York. She may prefer the step up to seven, particularly on firmer ground. The form from the 1000 Guineas works in her favour too. Nice price at 14/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Quick Flowering

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Celandine @ 6/1 (General)

    Celandine should not be double the price of Aesterius. She’s won twice out of two on good-to-firm ground and was a close third in the Prix Robert Papin. She has a weight allowance on Aesteris too. The formline from the Empress Fillies’ Stakes has worked out too, with Arabian Dusk winning next time out. Unbeaten on ground and good form all round, she deserves to be shorter.

    Vingegaard was tipped up for the Weatherbys Super Sprint 11 days ago, and was agonisingly close in the finish. The trip suits to a ‘T’, particularly if there’s plenty of pace on offer. And looking back at the Windsor Castle, he just lost fourth going in the final 50 yards up the hill. Plenty of reasons to like him at 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    Poetry In Motion

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    3:35 – Sussex Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Henry Longfellow @ 6/4 (General)

    After a disappointing start in the French 2000 Guineas, his run at Royal Ascot was far better and much more of what we expected. He comes up against 2000 Guianeas winner Notable Speech who was very below par at Ascot. With no legitimate excuse, ground could be blamed in part, which is why I prefer Henry Longfellow, who proved to go well on it last time out.

     

    Galway

    Let’s Go Galway

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    7:10 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Lets Go Champ @ 7/1 (BetVictor)

    Heading over to the West coast of Ireland, the Galway Plate is the feature of the Festival at Ballybrit. Won by a plethora of top trainers, this year should be no different. Henry de Bromhead last won this race with Balko Des Flos and looks to have a progressive staying chaser on his hands.

    Lets Go Champ form took a rocket boost from his first start over fences when Fact To File won at Cheltenham, which saw him win at the Punchestown Festival. It’s become clear he’s a horse who prefers better ground. And whilst he’s up nine pounds, he’s still well weighted and should go near.

    Life In The Park hasn’t had the best season over fences, but I don’t think he’s ever had his ground. His best results have come on good ground and was racing on soft all season. He didn’t run well in the Topham, but is down the weights in this contest. He came to form in the Plate at Cheltenham, and with the better ground is at least an each-way shout. 20/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day One – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day One – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today it’s the turn of the stayers in the Goodwood Cup, and a familiar name is back headlining the race. There’s also a familiar name trying to make it three wins in the Lennox Stakes too. Don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Say Hello To My Little Friend

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    1:50 – Chesterfield Cup Handicap – Tony Montana @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    With Enfjaar short in the market, I’m tempted to look elsewhere for a bit of value in the first race of the festival. Tony Montana finished third in the form race, the John Smith’s Cup at York. He ran on really well that day, finishing strong down the outside of the field. He’s only up a pound for a good run he can improve on, and he’s still only three pounds higher than his previous winning mark at Windsor this season.

    Stay Well didn’t race in the John Smith’s Cup, but has two races filled with form. Wadacre Gomez beat Stay Well at Chelmsford, then reversed the form next time out, before the former notched up another win. His latest run at Chelmsford saw him finish runner up to Enfjaar, and remains on the same mark. His form on turf may not look much from last season, but his performances this season suggest he has done a lot of improving. Interesting at 16/1 (William Hill).

    One trainer to follow in this race is Charlie Johnston. He and his father Mark have managed to notch up four of the last 10 winners. He has three runners today, but Killybegs Warrior should have his moment. Off the back of three really disappointing runs, he returns to very competitive mark, two pounds lower than his previous winning mark last year at Newmarket. Knowing how well the Johnston’s target their races, the market may be overlooking this one. 16/1 (William Hill).

     

    Goodwood Greek

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    2:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Highland Reel, Pinatubo and Haatem are just some of the recent winners of the race. This year looks very competitive. But I’m siding with the master Aidan O’Brien. The Parthenon finished well first time out, considering he was straight into a Group Three, and managed to back it up with a win at Gowran going away up the hill. Down the hill at Goodwood, he could win by further.

    An Outlaw’s Grace presents as an interesting opponent. His last start was in the Prix Robert Papin, where he finished a close fourth. He likes drying ground and may suit an extra furlong, despite being by a sprinter. Richard Hannon can follow up last year’s victory with an interesting horse that may be well worth following at three. 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Noble Quest

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    3:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Noble Dynasty @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Noble Dynasty has made big strides this season. From cosily winning a handicap, beating today’s second favourite English Oak, to winning his first group race at Newmarket last time out. He has shown incredible talent this season, and comes into the race top rated. Two-time Lennox winner Kinross hasn’t looked himself, and may be lacking the Frankie factor. It may be time for Noble Dynasty to pick up the crown.

     

    Guess Who’s Back?

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    3:35– Goodwood Cup (GROUP ONE) – Kyprios @ 4/9 (General)

    The 2022 Goodwood Cup winner, who trounced Stradivarius and Trueshan in a flying finish is finally back. Kyprios taken his time, but after his win in the Ascot Gold Cup he looks ready for anything. His nemesis Trawlerman doesn’t come here, but will be kept honest by the likes of Sweet William and Coltrane. But this should be a slightly easier test than the Gold Cup and will justify his odds-on price.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow Who Will Be King?

    Four To Follow Who Will Be King?

    It’s the big King George weekend at Ascot, with another great renewal of the top tier race. Can Auguste Rodin make up for last year’s incredible disappointment? Or can Rebel’s Romance strike through the heart? Plus a fantastic undercard to get through too. It’s a King George Four to Follow.

     

    Junior Monarch

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    1:50 – Princess Margaret Stakes (Group Three) – Handcuffed @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    Often a tricky two-year-old race in the middle of the season, there’s a good mix of talented fillies this year. Handcuffed was one of the last horses to be bred by the late Queen Elizabeth II, and she has some speedy bloodline. A half-sister to July Stakes winner Tactical, she was ridden patiently on debut, before switching to the inside and winning comfortably. With similar conditions today and a yard with good 2-Y-O form, she’s the pick for me.

     

    Bass, Baritone, Alto…

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    2:25 – Valiant Stakes (Group Three) – Soprano @ 7/2 (Betfred, BetUK)

    Another tough Group Three to pick at Ascot. In recent years, the form is with the three and four-year-olds. Soprano returns to the scene of her biggest career win, and on similar conditions too. With the big three-year-old allowance, she comes into the race top rated. Soft ground let her down last time out at Sandown, but still produced a good effort for third. But she has more favourable conditions today.

     

    Photo Finish

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    3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – New Image @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Always a competitive race, and once again I’m going for a similar pick. David O’Meara’s luck has to turn in these Ascot seven furlong handicaps, and young pretender New Image comes into the fold. A rather consistent horse since transferring from the all-weather, he enjoyed a good success at Musselburgh, before narrowly finishing behind Tolstoy at York. With a rapid rise to the top, its clear O’Meara thinks highly of this horse.

    Metal Merchant hasn’t had much luck recently. Two good handicaps at Newbury have been offset by two average performances at Ascot and Sandown. However, he is drawn next to pace in the middle of the track with Dancing Gemini and Ropey Guest. Despite not winning on firm ground, the race tactics should suit him to a ‘T’. 9/1 (William Hill).

    Northern Express has finished fourth in this race the previous two years. He’s back on the same mark for last year’s fourth and comes in off the back off three decent runs at both York and Royal Ascot. He wears first-time cheeckpieces to sharpen him up which can only be seen as a positive. Underestimate him at your peril, 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Love Is King

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    3:40 – King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (GROUP ONE) – Rebel’s Romance @ 7/2 (General)

    I just can’t trust Auguste Rodin. He has the potential to blow out with every run, yet on his day he can be ultra-impressive. But Rebel’s Romance is the horse in the race that knows a thing or two about winning. UAE 2000 Guineas, UAE Derby, Breeders‘ Cup Turf, Sheema Classic and a win in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. He’s been everywhere and pretty much done it, including last time out in Hong Kong. He’s won on firm ground before and has the potential to be king at Ascot.

    Sunway for David Menusier ran a superb race in behind Los Angeles in the Irish Derby last time out, and with the three-year-old allowance has a big say on proceedings. Despite not winning this season, he’s come close twice. Firm ground will be interesting for him, but he’s unexposed and ran well on firm-ish conditions at the Curragh last time out. Each-way potential at 14/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Another Group One meets us head on, with the Irish Oaks at The Curragh. Also it’s Newbury’s Super Sprint Day for speedy two-year-olds. And we’ve got action over the jumps too, with the Summer Plate from Market Rasen. We’re everywhere today on Four To Follow.

     

    Newbury

    Elite Sprinter

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    3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Elite Status @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Elite Status beat last year’s Super Sprint winner, Relief Rally, in his first start this season over C&D. However, I’ve always felt he would offer more at a higher level and was surprised not to see him head to Ascot. As a result his talent has just been given a cap and, with the three-year-old weight allowance, can display his talents again.

     

    A Viking Invasion

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    3:35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Vingegaard @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    It’s always a tough race to predict. A big field of two-year-olds who aren’t at the top level, often inexperienced and with different allotted weights. Looking at recent winners, you have to have broken your maiden and raced at Royal Ascot. Vingegaard won well on debut at Chepstow and finished an admirable fifth at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. He’s from a sprinter family so should have no trouble blazing a trail.

    Another little piece of form is Richard Hannon. He’s won this race four times in the last 10 years, which is an incredible strike rate. He only saddles one for this race, which perks interest. Despite Miss Collada not racing at Royal Ascot she has two wins and a place to her name. The form might not have worked out from her run at Salisbury, but performances suggest there’s a lot to come. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Market Rasen

    Boom Boom Boom

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    3:15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier) – Boombawn @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    A little reminder that the jumps season is not too far away with the Summer Plate, summer specialists are the ones to back. Boombawn loves to have his day in the sun. He’s only just started his career as a chaser, so it says a lot when Dan Skelton puts him into a big handicap. He remains on a mark of 135 and can come on from the run from his second last time out.

    If there’s one horse that will religiously turn up to this race, it’s two time winner Francky Du Berlais. He’s nine pounds lower than last year’s race, and eight pounds lower than his lowest winning mark in the race. Despite being an old boy, he’s been placed in his last two runs, so there’s still life in the old boy yet. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh

    Oh Happy Day

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    3:40 – Irish Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General)

    Only four wins in the last ten years for Aidan O’Brien might seem good at first, but with his records in Ireland far bigger than that, it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more. Content hasn’t been impressive, but the market took not when Ryan Moore decided to ride her instead of Port Fairy. However, a relation added to her form as half-sister Bedtime Story ripped the Chesham field apart. Content also has form from the Coronation Stakes and was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly a couple of weeks ago.

    Lava Stream was ultra-impressive and almost chased down Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale. Now she steps up to group one level and may be a little underestimated by the market. She’s from a middle-distance family and can go on all sorts of ground, so good ground at the Curragh will have her suited. The English flat horses always seem to pinch a prize over in Ireland and it could be Lava Stream’s day to do so. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    In what is labelled as ‘Super Saturday’ in the racing world, Newmarket July Cup Day is upon us with top-class action from Newmarket, Ascot, Chester, and York to look forward to.

    With a plethora of racing on our screens today, here are my main bets.

     

    2:12 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 33/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Heritage House has taken a walk in the market this morning, but as they say, the horse doesn’t know its price and her form in the book looks interesting off a mark of 93.

    The Dark Angel three-year-old has tried handicap company on two occasions, winning one and finishing second to Chic Colombine the other time.

    Chic Colombine is a Listed winner rated 103, so that form looks fairly strong.

    As for her other runs, she finished fourth to Romantic Style – a subsequent French 1000 Guineas fourth – in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes last year and she then ran a good race on her last start.

    That race was the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle and the winner, Jabaara, franked the form yesterday by finishing second to Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.

    The James Fanshawe yard is in fair form currently, so she’s an interesting contender at a big price.

     

    2:20 Ascot – Embesto @ 14/1 with William Hill (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Over at Ascot, my main play from the course comes at a price as Embesto can outrun his odds in the Group 2 Summer Mile Stakes.

    It’s not a vintage renewal on paper, but the four-year-old by Roaring Lion progressed nicely as a three-year-old and has form in the book that makes him interesting in this company.

    As much as he failed to fire subsequently, finishing second to Nostrum in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes looks like good form and he then showed great attitude to force a dead-heat in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury.

    Following a good fourth to Poker Face (second to Charyn at the start of this year) and Isaac Shelby (Classic form from last season) in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, he has had a murky start to his 2024 campaign.

    One can forgive him for his first run of the season and then he had a troubled route through the Group 3 Diomed Stakes, so he has had excuses for the efforts.

    If he puts his best foot forward – which he should do thanks to a bit more race fitness – I can see him having a good chance of causing a surprise.

     

    3:45 York – Al Qareem @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    With eight runners declared for the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes at York, the race looks ripe for an each-way play, but I can’t get away from Al Qareem at the head of affairs.

    Conditions look pretty decent for the five-year-old by Awtaad as he is racing over 1m6f at York on good to soft ground.

    He’s won at York over 1m4f before, but he did win the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over 1m7f in 2022, so the trip is not too much of a worry.

    Ignoring his 2022 form (which looks good on paper having run alongside Eldar Eldarov and Deauville Legend), his 2023 form is the best in the race.

    Having had a stint abroad in early 2023, he returned to the UK with a victory over Bluestocking in the Listed Stand Cup Stakes at Chester before beating Israr in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

    Subsequently, he has finished behind Hamish on two occasions, once in the 2023 Group 3 St Simon Stakes and once at the start of this season in the Group 3 Surprise Stakes.

    So, with all that form in the book, let’s hope he translates that to the track.

     

    4:35 Newmarket – River Tiber @ 8/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is a good renewal of the July Cup, I’m chancing River Tiber for a stable that does well in this contest with horses dropping in trip.

    Aidan O’Brien won the race with U S Navy Flag in 2018 and Ten Sovereigns in 2019, two horses who started the season at eight furlongs.

    That is the same profile as River Tiber who ran a great race when third to Rosallion in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the end of May.

    Furthermore, one could argue that the Irish Guineas turned into a bit of a sprint as the early sectionals were on the slow side and the front three flew home with wet sails.

    With my frequently-used forgiving hat on, he potentially bounced in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and there was plenty of confidence behind him that day.

    Of course, one has to respect Vandeek and Inisherin at the head of the market, but 8/1 seems like a fair price for a horse of River Tiber’s quality and I’m happy to back him.

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Three tips on Day Three of the July Festival, plus a John Smith’s Cup tip at York

     

    Newmarket

    Greek God

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    3:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Often one of the two-year-old races to watch, the Superlative has given light to the careers of Native Trail and City Of Troy in recent years. This year, there aren’t many horses to pick from impressive breeding lines so form lines are extra important. The Parthenon enjoyed a nice win at Gowran last time out, and his form line works out slightly better than his Godolphin counterpart.

    Look out for Pentle Bay who was best of the rest behind Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot. He’s one of a couple of horses to win on giving ground in his early career and has plenty of staying pedigree for the future. 5/1 (William Hill).

     

    Totally Mad

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    4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Most people would associate seven furlong handicaps with Ascot, but the Bunbury Cup is always a competitive feature of the July Festival. Awaal finished third in this race last year, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind winner Biggles. He’s back down to a mark of 102, the same when finishing second in the Lincoln handicap in 2023. He’s three pounds lower than his mark last year for this race and Simon & Ed Crisford enjoyed a double on yesterday’s card and can build on that today.

    Darkness has less success at this level of handicapping, but has one crucial thing in is favour. He’s two from two on the July course, horses for courses they say. His two wins on the course both came on firm ground, but when in France he has won of soft ground too, so there shouldn’t be any problems there. He can defy a six pound penalty today and make a good showing at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Yorkshire has two things that I really like about him. One: His name. Two: His low weight. Despite not performing at this level of handicapping in the past, he comes into this race with a win over seven furlongs already. Plus he has a versatility with ground, winning from good-to-firm to good-to-soft. Only three pounds above his last winning mark and has the weight of God’s Own County behind him. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Re-Match Point

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    4:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Vandeek @ 7/2 (Unibet)

    Plenty of rematch’s in this ultra-competitive July Cup. I’m siding with the Crisford’s once again with their stable star. Vandeek wasn’t up to his best at Haydock, but given it was his first run of the season, I’m willing to let that slide. After he missed the Royal meeting, this was the clear target for Vandeek and should put in a first-class performance.

    Mill Stream has been very consistent in sprint races this season. Out of three he’s finished 2, 1, 3 respectively. The furthest he got beat was by Khaadem at Royal Ascot last time out, and only by one-and-three-quarter lengths. He’s versatile on all ground and seems to come alive during mid-summer. 12/1 (General).

    This will be Jasour’s first time in open company, with the older horses involved. Again, he’s been quite consistent in two runs, with a win and third in the Commonwealth Cup. With a six pound allowance for three-year-olds, the younger horses are always preferred. Particularly, with 5 of the last 10 winners all three-year-olds. If he’s on his day again, he can run a big race at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    John Smith’s Keats

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    3:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Epic Poet @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Always one of the most exciting handicaps of the summer, in my opinion, the John Smith’s Cup. Epic Poet is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race, being three pounds well-in and a second last time out. He remains on the same mark of 97 and has a tendency to perform on soft ground, going on his career wins which all happened in France. He can overcome an outside draw, similar to Farraaj 10 years ago.

    Not many favourites, or single-price runners win this race. Looking down the market Paradis looks a nice each-way selection. Despite not being placed on a mark of 95, he’s down in the lower half of the weights. He loves give in the ground, and he’s got good-to-soft today. If he can overcome his big field no shows, then he has a big shout. 12/1 (William Hill).

    Dual Identity has the benefit of having a win to his name already this season. Despite being a Sandown specialist, he has won over ten furlongs. He’s down to a mark he can handle, and has the benefit of a claimer on board. He’s a little bit well-in, which may put him above some of the other runners. Can he win away from Sandown for the third time? 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!