Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day Two of the July Festival

     

    Trip To Paris

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    1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Chantilly @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The form from the London Gold Cup has once again proven itself to be a hot piece of guidance. Chantilly came third in that race and underperformed at Ascot last time out. However, give him the excuse of firm ground and he should be a better match today. He also steps down in trip which will suit him, as he’s closely related to milers in his family.

    Sun God is likely to be a major threat in this race and has been found out by the market, but is still backable. A half-brother to Lillie Langtry and Park Hill winner Sumo Sam, Sun God is likely to go well at both the surface and the trip at this stage in his career. He also showed positive signs when just being held off by Black Run back in May. Exciting prospect at 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Heavens Gate

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    2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Heavens Gate @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Heavens Gate showcased a lot of potential despite being second choice behind Fairy Godmother in the Albany at Royal Ascot. She set the pace pretty much all the way and was just succumbed to Fairy Godmother coming over the top. She will have soft ground in her pedigree and should be able to handle this test.

    Fiery Lucy is also one I favour. Her run at Fairyhouse has seen the second back up the form next time out at Bellewstown and comes into the race. Despite not being out of an affirmed sire and only related to one black type horse she might not have the best pedigree for a Group Two. But her form and performances are worth noting. 11/1 (General).

     

    Golden Band

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    3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Bague D’Or is very consistent in handicaps, particularly when winning on his first start of the season. He’s a modest four pounds above that previous winning mark. There may be a slight negative that he hasn’t won on any ground worse than good, but his record in handicaps is so consistent I can’t look past him.

    Knightswood makes an appeal at a price. The Johnston stable has a decent record in the race having recently won it back in 2022. With the market just preferring Knightswood over the other two in the race, there has to be something right with him. A classic stayer and steadily rising up the weights, he turns up with a low weight on his back and looks versatile on the ground. 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Favour Or Fortuna

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    3:35 – Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 6/4 (William Hill)

    With the form from both the 1000 Guineas Stakes working out superbly well, the ideal pick is someone who has benefitted. Porta Fortuna won the Coronation Stakes after being nosed off by Elmalka in the 1000 Guineas. And with none of her rivals turning up here, the talented Porta Fortuna can scorch away and do us all a favour by handing us a profit.

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day One of the July Festival

     

    Lunar Hero

    1:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Space Legend @ 2/1 (William Hill)

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    Ancient Wisdom is clearly the better rated, but has been underwhelming in his first two starts as a three-year-old. He never handled the track at Epsom, and was well beaten at York. Space Legend has been a little more consistent. He was well beaten on firm ground at Royal Ascot, but was almost two lengths clear of the rest of the field. With staying pedigree, his clear target is the St Leger and this is often a quiet trial.

     

    Whistle While You Work

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    2:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 5/4 (General)

    If you look back at Whistlejacket’s run at Royal Ascot, he never ran badly. He consistently led his group down the centre of the course, but the clear negative for him was the firm ground. Which is understandable, previous form backs it up. Had it been firmer ground today, it would be a far more open race. But with only few horses having experience on soft ground, Whistlejacket is a clear pick

     

    Soft Sprinter

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    3:00 – Bet Boost Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Moswaat @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Three-year-old handicaps still annoy me a little bit at this time of year. But we plug on and look for a sprinter who can handle the soft ground. Moswaat fits the bill for me. His first three runs this season have been disappointing, but he has only won previously on soft ground. He’s been dropped three pounds for his run at Royal Ascot and is down the weights today. Silvestre De Sousa has been on fine form since returning from Hong Kong and always catches the eye on board.

    Palmar Bay had a nice two-year-old season, winning twice and placed twice. He hasn’t seemed to handle the step up to seven furlongs, so the drop back to six will be a big positive. Again, he’s been dropped three pounds on conditions he will relish. He can also go forward on his side of the draw, and on soft ground might not be caught either. 14/1 (General).

     

    Scots Aren’t Soft

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    3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Hamish @ 10/11 (William Hill, Betfred)

    If there’s one horse you want to win over a mile-and-a-half and on soft ground. Call on Hamish. Coming off the back of an admirable run at Epsom, he’s back in more comfortable surroundings with a possible eye to the King George at the end of the month. Giavellotto steps down in trip, which could be a hindrance with a penalty on board and Arrest is far too inconsistent to consider so Hamish is the answer

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: No Real Surprise

    Four To Follow: No Real Surprise

    We’re on a Group One roll at the moment, with the Irish Derby and Royal Ascot behind us. We now focus on Sandown and the Eclipse, won by greats like Sea The Stars and Golden Horn. Can a certain City Of Troy add his name to the roster, or is there a surprise in store? Find out in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Dreaming Of Winners

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    1:50 – Charge Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Live In The Dream @ 3/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    When you’re rated six pounds better than the rest, you’re expected to perform. And Live In The Dream is bound to do that today. He had an excuse at Haydock last time out after stumbling out of the stalls and was closing in on Kerdos in the Temple Stakes. Eyes may be on a retaining the Nunthorpe and this is a decent warm-up, particularly with a good outside draw.

    To finish in behind, Purosangue is back to a level he can perform at. He’s coming back from a poor showing, but out of his depth, in the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and to a level he can perform at. Good to Firm ground won’t suit him, so the added moisture in the ground is a plus with an outside draw too. 12/1 (General).

     

    No Wooden Surprise

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    3:35 – Eclipse Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 4/11 (William Hill)

    If you think that either Dancing Gemini or Ghostwriter can surprise the Derby winner, you’re wrong. This has to be one of the weakest renewals of a prestigious Group One, you’d expect City Of Troy to win on the bridle. With the International Stakes and a possible Breeders’ Cup challenge in sight, there’s more challenging races to come.

     

    Haydock

    Sir Mark’s Superstar

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    2:40 – Lancashire Oaks (Group Two) – Tiffany @ 9/4 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Tiffany is rightly favourite for this race, after her dominant win in last week’s Hopping’s Fillies Stakes. Going down the classic Sir Mark Prescott route, she was a handicapper last year before dominantly winning two Listed contests, then last week at Newcastle. Only three years ago Prescott won this race with Alpinista, and Tiffany aims to sparkle in her footsteps.

    Forest Fairy also deserves a shout in her first race back after the Oaks. She never ran a bad race at Lingfield, but just didn’t suit Epsom. On a flatter track, with plenty of allowances on her back, Forest Fairy may be able to conjure something up at 17/2 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Chilly In July?

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    3:15 – Old Newton Cup Handicap – Chillingham @ 7/1 (William Hill)

    This is always a very competitive handicap at this time of year. Chillingham is the pick for me in this year’s contest. He ran well last time out at York, despite the big margin between him and the top two. However, he’s still on a respectable mark, ground conditions will no doubt favour him and he can make haste from a wide draw over a mile-and-a-half.

    Maghlaak is an incredibly well-bred horse and shouldn’t have been the plan to go handicapping at first. However, this half brother to Mutanasseq has been well-raced and won earlier on this season before a poor showing at Redcar. But he now has first time blinkers on and hopefully Saffie Osborne can be quick out of the gates to get some cover. Low in the handicap and a little overlooked at 12/1 (General).

    Flash Bardot also won earlier on this season, and is back down to a respectable weight, two pounds above his last winning mark with a claimer on board. He’s been denied some clear runs in his next couple of starts and maybe a low weight in a big field handicap, plus a wide draw will help his chances. Long shot surprise at 25/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    After the come-down of Royal Ascot, we focus on a couple of Derby’s. Today, it’s the Pitman’s Derby up at Newcastle, or the Northumberland Plate as it is more formally known. Then on Sunday we have the Irish Derby, with the Epsom Derby’s second and third re-opposing. It’s a rare Saturday Five To Follow!

     

    Newcastle

    Northern Success

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    2:04 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Kinross @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Clearly, this is a prep race for Kinross in search of July Cup glory. Kinross missed Royal Ascot last week, which was a peculiar move by Ralph Beckett since heb seems to thrive on the heath. But clearly, bigger things are in store for the impressive multiple Group One winner. Starting things off in a Group Three has all the rest of the field vying for places.

     

    Duke’s Derby

    3:10 – Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) – Duke Of Oxford @ 11/1 (William Hill)

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    Duke Of Oxford has every right to be shorter than he is. He has a better record on the all-weather than he does on turf. He’s won at the distance and can easily manage the weight he has been given for a true stamina test. At Newcastle he has a record of second and third, and is back to the mark he was for second on All-weather Finals day. His run at Chester was underwhelming, but has put him back in contention for the Pitman’s Derby.

    Sir Mark Prescott’s power of handicapping awareness cannot go understated. He won last night Hoppings Fillies Stakes, so has already prepped himself for an onslaught of Newcastle. He has two for the Pitman’s Derby. But I fancy his second string True Legend, an each-way pick. He has already won at Newcastle and is a progressive sort after just losing out at Goodwood last time out. He should make a good account of himself at 12/1 (BetVictor).

    Forza Orta hasn’t been in the best of form lately. But could this be the mastermind of trainer Kevin Ryan. He wasn’t exactly in the best of form coming into his most recent win at York, with a second at Hamilton behind him. He’s only a pound above that mark today and is low in the weights too. A clear stayer and this race may have been quietly in mind. Too big to ignore at 25/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Back To His Best

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    3:25 – Criterion Stakes (Group Three) – Nostrum @ 4/1 (General)

    Nostrum has had some excuses of late. At the end of last season he scoped lame, and at the start of this season he “raced awkwardly”. With an extended break, Sir Michael Stoute has hopefully fixed the problem for the 2022 Dewhurst third and has Charyn to back up the form from the April race this season.

    Witch Hunter has just kept running into good horses of late. Although his Group One performances have brought dividends. He finished third in the Lockinge and fourth in the Queen Anne, outperforming his odds both times. With a small field, and ground he can perform on, he’s got an each-way shout at 7/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh – Saturday

    No Blue Feelings

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    3:30 – Pretty Polly Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Bluestocking @ 15/8 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Four British raiders are over for this Group One. And the favourite takes the fancy. Emily Upjohn has plenty of things not in her favour, particularly going off her last performance at Epsom. Stay Alert will not want the ground firm, which looks like she won’t get. And Tasmania is a bit of an unknown in the hands of Sir Mark Prescott, who will have yes on Newcastle. Bluestocking obliterated the Middleton field at York and will perform on similar ground at the Curragh.

     

    Curragh- Sunday

    Race Of Angels

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    4:05 – Irish Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 7/4 (General)

    After his third in the Epsom Derby, it was clear Los Angeles was a stayer and this was the next logical target. I’m still not taken by Ambiente Friendly, even though he finished more than three lengths in front of Los Angeles. I still think that stamina may be a challenge for him. Particularly when Los Angeles is out of a Derby winner and a full brother to two black type winners with a mile-and-a-half in their pedigree.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Five: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Five: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Who is today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Down The Royal River

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    NAP: Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – River Tiber @ 13/8 (Unibet, Boylesports)

    This year’s Jersey Stakes looks a very nice renewal. Haatem, recently purchased by high-flying Wathnan, drops grades and a furlong here. But I think River Tiber will suit over the specialist trip. He finished a good third behind Rosallion in the Irish 2000 Guineas, of which he backed up nicely on Tuesday. Another big plus for River Tiber is the fact that a few of last year’s Royal Ascot winners have won again this week and River Tiber can follow that trend for the evergreen duo of O’Brien and Moore.

     

    History Repeating

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    E/W Bet: Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Khaadem @ 20/1 (William Hill)

    Dr Jim Hay said that both of his horses will run well in this race. Particularly Khaadem, who shocked Royal Ascot at 80/1. A few things haven’t gone right for him since. His run on firm ground was too short over five furlongs, and his runs over six haven’t come on the rattling ground he wants. Today, it’s déjà vu for Khaadem and the market haven’t caught on to it. Pace-wise, he looks like he’s on the wrong side, but he still can’t be ignored at a big price when conditions are in his favour.

     

    Three For The Sprint

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    Handicap Best: Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Harry Three @ 9/1 (Unibet)

    Pace is everything in the Wokingham. And much like the Jubilee, it looks like the far side is where you want to be. Yet the better handicapped horses are over on the other side so it makes it a bit difficult when picking a horse in the shorter odds to back. Harry Three seems the better handicapped of the principles. In 2022 he achieved a hattrick of wins from May to July, but came unstuck on the worser ground towards the end of the season. He’s back on firm ground today and has dropped an astonishing six pounds in just two runs.

    Unequal Love sits where the pace is and comes into this race on a decent patch of form. She won her last handicap race at Pontefract before going into open company and winning at Newmarket at the start of the season. She didn’t run too badly at Group Two level at the Curragh last time out and drops back into handicap company. And, she can manage all types of ground which makes her value at 16/1 (Boylesports).

    Desert Cop is still relatively unexposed on firm ground. He has only one run on the fast ground in a big field handicap at Newmarket with a big weight on his back. He wasn’t great over seven furlongs last time, and has a note of inconsistency about him. He’s over on the far side, which makes him near the pace and has a nice weight on his back. Long shot of the race at 25/1 (Unibet).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) – Bedtime Story @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    15:05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous @ 2/1 (Unibet), Isle Of Jura e/w @ 12/1 (Unibet)

    15:45 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Shartash @ 7/1 (Boylesports), Washington Heights e/w @ 12/1 (General), KHAADEM (E/W) @ 20/1 (William Hill)

    16:25 – Jersey Stakes (Group Three) – RIVER TIBER (NAP) @ 13/8 (Unibet, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – HARRY THREE (HB) @ 9/1 (Unibet), Unequal Love e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports), Desert Cop e/w @ 25/1 (Unibet)

    17:40 – Golden Gates Stakes – Old Faithful @ 13/2 (Unibet, Betfred), Approval e/w @ 15/2 (Unibet, Betfred), Dambuster 14/1 e/w (General)

    18:15 – Queen Alexandra Stakes – Queenstown @ 3/1 (General), Uxmal e/w @ 7/1 (General)

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Four: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Four: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Who is today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Royal Redemption

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    NAP: Coronation Stakes (Group Two) – Ramatuelle @ 9/2 (BetVictor)

    The form of the English 1000 Guineas gets its big test today. The 1-2-3 from the race turn up here, and I’m siding with the unlucky loser of the trio. Ramatuelle did everything right bar win, and was squeezed out on both sides by Porta Fortuna and Elmalka. I think Elmalka is still a bit too inexperienced and will get found out today, Porta Fortuna will want the pace to be quick and I’m still not convinced by Opera Singer’s credentials. Oisin Murphy is having a good week and it makes sense the trainer Christopher Head has booked him.

     

    French Fancy

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    E/W Bet: King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – Calandagan @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    This looks like one of the trickiest races to decipher at the Royal meeting this week. Usually a top class race filled with Epsom Derby would-be’s. It makes sense to look for one with a nice price, and I think Calandagan has been unfairly treated. He’s been acting well this season, winning two Group Three’s, but missed the Prix du Jockey Club and elected to come to Royal Ascot instead. Despite racing, and winning, most of his races on French heavy ground, he should be able to handle the firmer conditions through his sire Gleneagles. Voyage, who was technically first past the post in the Derby, is my win bet for the race.

     

    Diamond In The Rough

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    Handicap Best: Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) – Ethical Diamond @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    When Mullins and Moore team up, the stars align. And Ethical Diamond seems to be well-handicapped in this particular contest. His previous flat race saw him nosed off for second by Saturn at Leopardstown. The form from the handicap has since been boosted by both the winner and the third, so has no excuses for a poor showing. He also handles better ground, which may be the reason why his hurdling career didn’t quite go to plan over the Winter.

    Shadow Dance comes into this race fresh. Which to some may be a help, rather than a hinderance. Last time we saw him was back in October, beaten half-a-length by Alsakib in the Old Rowley Cup. Despite a five pound rise in the weights, he seems fairly treated by the handicapper. And a wide stall is another positive when coming down the hill at Ascot. 7/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Deakin is another horse I really respect. A liking for firm ground, and comes into the race off the back of some good performances. He has been raised nearly 20 pounds since his win back in September but has not felt a big pinch by the handicapper when beaten by a neck at the Curragh last time out. Distance winner, ground preference and an outside stall puts him at a nice price of 15/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Albany Stakes (Group Three) – Fairy Godmother @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    15:05 – Commonwealth Cup (GROUP ONE) – Jasour @ 5/1 (William Hill), Starlust e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    15:45 – Coronation Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Ramatuelle @ 9/2 (BetVictor), Rouhiya e/w @ 11/1 (General)

    16:25 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Ethical Diamond (HB) @ 5/2 (William Hill), Shadow Dance e/w @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Deakin e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Sandringham Stakes – Indelible @ 9/2 (William Hill), Forever Blue e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports), Asian Daze e/w @ 25/1 (William Hill)

    17:40 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group Two) – Voyage @ 9/1 (General), Calandagan (E/W) @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    18:15 – Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes – Vantheman @ 8/1 (Betfred), Mukaafah e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill), Pilgrim e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips | Musmak makes appeal

    Royal Ascot Day 3 Tips | Musmak makes appeal

    Royal Ascot Day 3 is here and so far, the week has gone well for the column.

    Tuesday kicked off with Israr and a 25/1 place returning profit and yesterday continued the good form thanks to Illinois, Running Lion, and EW profit on Rowayeh.

    Let’s hope the rest of the week is more of the same.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Cogitate @ 22/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Connections of Cogitate were probably sick when they saw stall one next to their horse’s name for the Brittania Stakes as if he had a better draw, he’d have a brilliant chance in this contest.

    The three-year-old by Churchill looked very good on debut at Newbury as he beat Boiling Point, now rated 107, by two lengths under Hollie Doyle who returns to the saddle.

    The form of that race looks strong as even the third, Maximum Dividend, was a head-second to Starlore on debut at Sandown coming into that Newbury contest.

    Cogitate disappointed at York in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes, but his seasonal return at Southwell when behind Karl Burke’s Night Raider was promising.

    Charlie Hills is looking forward to running Cogitate here, though he has a tough task from his draw. Still, his profile warrants a bet at the prices.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Al Musmak @ 18/1 with BetVictor (4 places)  – 1pt EW

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    The ‘forgiving hat’ provided success yesterday as Running Lion won the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and I’m using it again today thanks to Al Musmak in the Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes.

    On his seasonal return, he was sent off 4/1 for the Group 2 Dante Stakes at York and finished seventh of seven, though trainer Roger Varian subsequently reported that “his bloods were off”.

    His last run is therefore excused and based on his two-year-old form, he has a right chance in this company.

    On debut, he won at Ascot over seven furlongs on ground that was on the softer side and he then finished second in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes to Rosallion.

    The winner has franked the form massively since, though he also beat Ancient Wisdom (subsequent Group 1 Futurity Stakes winner), Alyanaabi (subsequent Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes runner-up), Dancing Gemini (subsequent Group 1 French 2000 Guineas runner-up), and Sunway (subsequent Group 1 Criterium International winner).

    That’s good form, and he also won the Listed Ascendant Stakes on his next start before finishing second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes on his final start of 2023.

    To my eye, he’s wanted a race over further than a mile for a while, so it is a shame we didn’t get to see his full capabilities in the Dante Stakes in May.

    However, his pedigree would offer some hope regarding today’s 10 furlongs assignment as his dam, Parton, is a half-sister to the 1m4f winner Boltaway.

    Furthermore, his grand-dam (Proviso) won four Grade 1 races in America on firm ground, so he is likely to enjoy today’s faster conditions.

    If he recreates any of that two-year-old form today, he could make his 20/1 price look silly.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Alzahir @ 22/1 with William Hill (6 places) & The X O @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW for both

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    In the Buckingham Palace Stakes that concludes the card, I’m taking two chances at slightly lower stakes, the first of which is Alzahir.

    The former John & Thady Gosden-trained Sea The Stars gelding has had three runs for David O’Meara, though the best of his runs for his new yard came at Chester on his first start of the season.

    From stall eight, he got into a nice position, though he was fairly keen early on and he potentially paid for that in the final stages.

    That run showed promise and he’s likely to come on for it, and if he does, his form from the early parts of his career reads well.

    He finished second to Brave Emperor in a Kempton conditions stakes in March 2023, form that looks good as the winner has a rating of 114 having won two Group 2s and three Group 3s since. The fourth, Killybegs Warrior, also franked the form in some decent Class 2 handicaps subsequently.

    As for The X O, connections stepped him up to seven furlongs on his last start, and I actually thought he handled this new trip well.

    He raced on the outside at Epsom throughout most of the race, though when Rossa Ryan delivered his challenge just before the one-furlong pole, he stuck at it well.

    Having placed in last year’s Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial, he has classy form in the book, and the return to a straight track will help him here.

    He’s also likely to relish the good to firm ground compared to the good to soft conditions he experienced on Epsom Oaks Day.

    So, off a lenient mark of 95, I’ll chance him here.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Who is today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Royal Jacket

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    NAP: Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 6/5 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    It might seem a bit foolhardy putting the trust and faith in a two-year-old. But when you are a full brother to Royal Ascot winner Little Big Bear and dominated you’re last win, you have to uphold some reputation. Whistlejacket won by three-and-three-quarter lengths in the First Flier in May. That was on soft ground, but there will be more expected of him now on good-to-firm. Just like his brother, expect plenty of pace and not for catching.

     

    Rane On The Parade

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    E/W Bet: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Coltrane @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    On paper, this looks like one of the most competitive renewals of the Gold Cup in recent years. Coltrane, for me, looks overpriced. His record at Ascot reads an impressive 121251. This includes a second in the Gold Cup last year. He’s won on firm ground before, in last season’s Lonsdale Cup. His price is too big, considering Gregory has not landed a big prize since last year’s Queen’s Vase. And, Kyprios is on a vengeance mission against Trawlerman to try and reagin his Royal crown, the latter of which is my pick to land the big prize. But Coltrane will not be far from the frame.

     

    No Need To Ponder

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    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Poniros @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Only one race is worth looking at for this contest. The London Gold Cup. And whilst the winner is going up into Group company, the rest show up here. Poniros is the one who comes here looking to uphold the form. It already has by Persica at Epsom and hopefully is the first positive indicator of how good the form is from the race. Poniros should relish the step up in trip after being bred by Golden Horn and looks a good pick at the initial prices.

    Fouroneohfever is on a four timer. Each race he has run this season, he seems to have grown in confidence, if you look at the winning distance. He’s already won over the winning distance of one-and-a-half miles so has got the engine. Despite not winning on firm ground, his sire Too Darn Hot will provide him with that ability. Decent each-way chance at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

    An outsider that may be a little overlooked is City Burglar for Ralph Beckett. He came into this season with a narrow defeat over 10 furlongs at Ayr, which shows he is open to improvement over further. The draw may be a little negative on the inside rail, but Silvestre De Sousa is experienced enough to navigate a way through. 33/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – WHISTLEJACKET (NAP) @ 6/5 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – PONIROS (HB) @ 15/2 (William Hill), Fouroneohfever e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor), City Burglar e/w @ 33/1 (BetVictor)

    15:45 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Diamond Rain @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    16:25 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – Trawlerman @ 6/1 (General), COLTRANE (E/W) @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Volterra @ 7/1 (Boylesports), Dashing Darcey e/w @ 12/1 (General), Mickley e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    17:40 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – King’s Gambit @ 13/8 (William Hill, Boylesports), Jayarebe e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    18:15 – Buckingham Palace Stakes – Kings Time @ 12/1 (William Hill), Divine Libra e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill), Billyjoh e/w @ 2/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!