Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips | Running back to glory

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us following a great opening day to the royal meeting on Tuesday, one that saw the column finish in profit.

    After the first three selections, we looked slightly up against the ropes, but Israr (the best bet) winning the Listed Wolferton Stakes and Lmay finishing second at 25/1 in the Copper Horse Handicap turned the day around.

    Let’s hope for a bit more success today.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Illinois @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    Similar to fancying Israr yesterday, I think Illinois could have too much for his rivals in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase Stakes.

    The three-year-old by Galileo is regally bred as he is a half to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and King George winner Danedream (who handled quicker surfaces) and is a full brother to the Group 1-placed Venice Beach who also won on good ground.

    Therefore, despite his prior form on heavy and soft ground, a sounder surface at Ascot should suit.

    The Coolmore homebred won on debut and has failed to repeat that feat since, but he was a staying-on second to Ambiente Friendly (the Epsom Derby runner-up) in the Lingfield Derby Trial and the third, Meydaan, has won the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes since.

    Before that, he ran a sound race on dire ground in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown having finished third in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final start as a two-year-old.

    The form of that race looks good as the winner (Los Angeles) won the Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial Stakes on his next start, the fourth (Ramadan) was fifth in the French Guineas, and the fifth (Bracken’s Laugh) finished second in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester.

    The step up in trip should work and, ultimately, he looks like the best horse in this field.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Running Lion @ 10/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With my frequently-used ‘forgiving hat’ on, I’m making a case for Running Lion returning back to her best in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes.

    The four-year-old had a muddling season last year as she looked like a world-beater in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes but then failed to recreate that form in four subsequent runs.

    That day, she beat Sumo Sam (a subsequent two-time Group 2 winner) by four-and-a-half lengths on ground officially described as soft, though the time of the race suggests it was slightly better than that.

    Connections tried her over 1m2f on her next two starts, the best effort of which came at Salisbury when second to State Occasion, and then stepped her up to 1m4f for her final two runs of the year.

    At Newmarket in the Group 3 Dubai Stakes, she hung a bit to her left (as she did on her seasonal return in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes this year) and could only manage third, and in the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, she probably found the extended trip on soft ground too much for her.

    Her tendency to hang to her left is interesting as her most notable case of it came at the start of this year.

    Considering she seemed fine when she winning around a right-handed bend at Kempton last year, there’s an argument to suggest that today’s assignment on the Ascot round course might help keep her mind on the job.

    If she does, bits of her form looks better than most of her rivals in this field and her pedigree leans towards better ground, something she gets today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Streets Of Gold @ 18/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    The Royal Hunt Cup is a tricky handicap to get a hold of in most years, though I’d happy to take a small chance on Streets Of Gold.

    The four-year-old has contested three handicaps in his career, winning one of them and finishing a good sixth on his latest start in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs.

    He travelled with a wet sail that day under three-pound claimer Georgia Dobie and the handicapper has dropped him one pound for his effort, a welcome sight.

    Based on his pedigree, it’s fairly remarkable that he’s adapted himself so well to these shorter distances as he comes from the family of Treasure Beach (the 2011 Irish Derby winner), Elidor (a 1m6f Listed winner), and Count Octave (runner-up in the 2018 Group 2 Lonsdale Cup to Stradivarius).

    So, his pedigree suggests that a step up in trip could work out for him, and the form of his third in last year’s Group 3 Jersey Stakes is solid.

    With Charlie Bishop back in the saddle, he can outrun his odds in the Royal Hunt Cup.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Rowayeh @ 14/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Kensington Palace Stakes takes place on the straight course for the first time in its history and all of the last three renewals have gone to a four-year-old, serving as a small nod of confidence to Rowayeh.

    The Dubawi filly progressed nicely as a three-year-old as she finished third in her opening race of the season to Silver Lady, a future Group 2 Cape Verdi winner in Meydan.

    After that, she won at Beverley and then won on handicap debut at Sandown, a race that has worked out well as the second (Mystic Pearl) won a Listed race on her next start and finished third in this race last year.

    Following that, her form continued to improve as she finished third at Goodwood to Choisya (now rated 100) in a Class 3 handicap, another race that looks good in the form book as the second (Novus) has improved 21 pounds to a rating of 107 and the fourth (Royal Dress) has improved 16 pounds to a mark of 102.

    One can argue that her final start of the season came at the end of a congested campaign, and there are plenty of positives to take from her seasonal reappearance against the boys at Newmarket when you consider that she needed the run.

    Although she has form on good to soft ground, she is by Dubawi and out of a War Front mare whose relations all preferred soft ground.

    Furthermore, her dam (Alaflaak) is a War Front half to the dam of Baaeed, Hukum, and Naqeeb which is a nice pedigree point.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Pont Neuf @ 10/1 with Bet365 (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The only two-year-old bet I had yesterday didn’t work out too well, but I haven’t lost faith in all juveniles yet as I’m a fan of Eve Johnson Houghton’s Pont Neuf in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes.

    Firstly, it’s worth highlighting Matt Chapman’s interview with Johnson Houghton from Windsor on Monday as her confidence behind this gelding by Cotai Glory was high.

    It’s understandable why, as he is two from two and his success at Salisbury last month was huge.

    On ground that probably wasn’t to his liking, the 24,000gns purchase dug deep and passed rivals to win by three-quarters of a length.

    The second, Kassaya, was in receipt of nine pounds from the winner and is a Nathaniel half-sister to last year’s 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean and the third, Megalithic, franked the form subsequently with a sound effort in the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom.

    Also, if you’re inclined to read into collateral form, Megalithic was second to Teej A in the Woodcote Stakes and Teej A beat yesterday’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Rashabar at Chester in May.

    With a good ground-orientated pedigree, he should relish a return to a sounder surface and the way he moved through his Salisbury win suggests a stiff five at Ascot could play to his strengths.

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Two: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day Two: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Whose today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Royal Rogue

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    NAP: Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Despite transitioning over to Ireland, Rogue Millennium is still a little inconsistent. She was hampered in the Lanwades Stud Stakes, trying to go down the inner. She switched to the outside but too late in the day. Today, she isn’t drawn much better in stall two, unlike in stall seven in last year’s race. But she performs on firmer ground, unlike some of her counterparts and she’s best rated in the field. She should, hopefully, have a little more luck in running this time around.

     

    Not A Flailed Shot

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    E/W Bet: Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Alflaila @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Whilst everyone looks to the top of the market for the race of the day, there’s some value to be had with Alflaila. He won the Group Two Strensall Stakes on firm ground, and it’s clear it’s his preferred ground. He’s relatively unexposed at Group One level, after finishing fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes, but ran best of the rest after the top four battled it out between a length. He’s one of only a few horses that will perform on this sort of ground, and can run well in behind my main pick, Inspiral.

     

    Roaring Success

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    Handicap Best: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Wild Tiger @ 9/1 (General)

    Only three favourites have won this race, which makes the price of 9/1 all the more appealing. There are plenty of chances for everyone, but drawing up a pace map and looking at the results down the straight course yesterday, there’s an advantage down the outside. Wild Tiger is in amongst it in stall 20. He’s off the back of two wins and is climbing through the rankings. Only six pounds raised from his last run and still very well handicapped, he could be the fourth favourite to win the Royal Hunt Cup.

    I also can’t escape Real Gain. He was disappointing in the Spring Cup on return, but you don’t have to go back far to realise his best performance came on firm ground. He may be feeling the effects of that win in handicap terms, but he has some advantages today. He’s drawn on the far side, which seems to be the trend on the straight course. He can come on from the run from Newbury and William Buick on board is significant. Nice price at 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    At a price, Talis Evolvere makes sense. With Joe Leavy claiming five pounds off his mark of 100, he can make a significant impact. The claimer has won on him at Newcastle and finished third with him in the Spring Cup at Newbury. Ryan Moore’s third on him last time out has kept the mark that is ideal for Talis Evolvere, but will have to tack over in the early stages to latch on to the pace. Proper each-way 18/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two) – Leovanni @ 8/1 (Unibet), Maw Lam e/w @ 33/1 (General)

    15:05 – Queen’s Vase (Group Two) – Highbury @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports), Mina Rashid e/ w @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    15:45 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – ROGUE MILLENNIUM (NAP) @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    16:25 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Inspiral @ 5/2 (William Hill) ALFLAILA (E/W) @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    17:05 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – WILD TIGER (HB) @ 9/1 (General), Real Gain e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Talis Evolvere e/w @ 18/1 (General)

    17:40 – Kensington Palace Stakes – Doha @ 10/1 (General), Azahara Palace e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill), Villanvoa Queen e/w @ 22/1 (William Hill, 888Sport, Unibet)

    18:15 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Hawaiian @ 10/1 (General), Cheval De Guerre e/w @ 20/1 (William Hill), Aviation Time e/w @ 28/1 (Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s time for the fanciest, fabulous and glamorous week of the year. Royal Ascot returns for the midsummer event of the season. Some big names take to the track to battle it out in front of royalty, dignitaries and punters alike. Whose today’s NAP? Find out below.

     

    Big Fast Bet

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    NAP: King Charles III Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Evs @ 4/1 (General)

    One horse who is an out an out sprinter is Big Evs. He’s currently on a four race winning streak after making light work of the Westow field at York in May. Despite him jumping from Listed to Group One, he is a British Group winner and a Breeders’ Cup winner too. Plus he ran at the Royal meeting last year when he blitzed a 20 runner two-year-old field by three lengths. If anyone can do it, it’s Big Evs.

     

    Royal Honour

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    E/W Bet: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Symbol Of Honour @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    It looks a very competitive renewal of the Coventry, with plenty of horses with a shout all through the market. Look out for those who have been impressive on firm ground, which includes Symbol Of Honour. A couple of horses have backed up the form, including first choice from the owners Al Qudra. However, Symbol Of Honour caught the eye at Lingfield and a firm six furlongs will suit him to a T. He’s drawn near the rail which is an added bonus.

     

    No Catching The Rat Catcher

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    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Pied Piper @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    It’s a jumper’s summer paradise, which can create Cheltenham winners into Royal Ascot champions. Pied Piper is hoping to fit into that bracket. It’s clear he’ll get the distance and prefers firmer ground when going in the winter. He only finished three-quarters of a length down in the Cesarewitch in September which is a massive plus in my book and doesn’t seem to be that affected by the handicapper raising him four pounds.

    Another firm going jumper is Nusret. He won a Race To The Ebor race last Summer, but was hugely disappointing in the Irish Cesarewitch, due to soft ground. But his run at Punchestown over hurdles gave some promise and it’s clear that Joseph O’Brien will have aimed this horse here. He has a nice weight on his back, and loves going right-handed. Nice each-way chance at 16/1 (William Hill).

    Only Master Milliner has a really good liking for firm ground. He wasn’t great in the 2022 Queen Alexandra, but the proceeded to double up, including winning the Goodwood handicap. Hasn’t been seen since the back end of 2022, though it’s worth-noting why Emma Lavelle has decided he should reappear here. Big ask at 66/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Rock @ 13/2 (William Hill), Docklands e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports)

    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Catalyse @ 12/1 (William Hill), SYMBOL OF HONOUR E/W @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    15:45 – King Charles III (GROUP ONE) – BIG EVS (NAP) @ 4/1 (General)

    16:25 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Rosallion @ 4/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports), Alyanaabi e/w @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

    17:05 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – PIED PIPER (HB) @ 8/1 (William Hill), Nusret e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill), Master Milliner e/w @ 66/1 (General)

    17:40 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Israr @ 7/2 (General), Astro King e/w @ 11/1 (Betfred, Boylesports), Checkandchallenge e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    18:15 – Copper Horse Handicap – Belloccio @ 100/30 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred), Alsakib e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Beamish e/w @ 25/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot 2024 | Day 1 Tips | Baeda’s brother in the last

    Royal Ascot Day 1 is upon us and the excitement levels are extremely high.

    In the lead-up to the royal meeting, the ground was causing a few issues as many forecasts had predicted nearly 20mm of rainfall ahead of the Queen Anne Stakes.

    However, that didn’t materialise and the course has artificially added 5mm onto the straight and round courses.

    So, with quick ground accounted into the studying, here are my plays for Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    2:30 Ascot – Dolayli @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Queen Anne has many big names to consider.

    Facteur Cheval, Charyn, Big Rock, Royal Scotsman, and Audience all set a good standard, but the one that appeals to me the most is Dolayli who has a different profile from most in the race.

    Of the five-year-old’s last six races, four have occurred on the all-weather, the most recent of which happened in March when he beat Junko by five lengths.

    Admittedly, Junko was having his first run for 89 days, but he won the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase and Group 1 Grosser Preis von Bayern in the space of a month prior to that reappearance which is a solid standard of form.

    Furthermore, Junko won the Group 2 Grand Prix de Chantilly at the start of this month to further frank the form.

    In Dolayli’s two runs subsequently, he finished third in the Group 2 Prix du Muguet and then improved to finish fourth in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan.

    As for the strength of that piece of form, the winner (Mqse De Sevigne) was third in last season’s Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and won two other Group 1 contests before that, the second (Horizon Dore) chased home King Of Steel in the 2023 Group 1 Champion Stakes, and the third (Haya Zark) had just won the Group 1 Prix Ganay.

    Furthermore, the fifth (Blue Rose Cen) won three Group 1s last season and the sixth (Marhaba Ya Sanafi) won the Group 3 Prix Bertrand du Breuil recently.

    Finally, just to add to his case, his pedigree is ludicrous on paper.

    His dam (Dolniya) won the 2015 Group 1 Sheema Classic and he is by the super-sire Siyouni.

    A strongly-run straight mile should suit and he’ll appreciate the faster ground.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Cowardofthecounty @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’m not one to bet in two-year-old races too often, but Cowardofthecounty produced a performance so striking on debut that is hard to ignore.

    His win at the end of April came on soft to heavy ground, but he put two-and-a-half lengths between himself and Whistlejacket (Aidan O’Brien’s full brother to Little Big Bear) who franked the form on his next start as he won the Listed First Flier Stakes.

    Will he like the fast ground? Well, he is by Kodi Bear who produces a fair amount of fast ground horses, his half-brother Cassy O won three times on good to firm, and his grand-dam produced Junia Tepzia, the 2009 Listed Premio Coolmore winner on good ground.

    That pedigree analysis offers a good bit of confidence behind him liking the ground and following his win at the Curragh, Kevin Blake (race planner to Joseph O’Brien) was full of praise on the Betfair Weighed-In podcast.

    Hopefully, he justifies his market position with a nice performance in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes.

     

    3:40 Ascot – Diligent Harry @ 16/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    In the newly-named Group 1 King Charles III Stakes, Diligent Harry looks too big of a price to leave alone.

    Trainer Clive Cox has never shied away from speaking his mind in regards to what he thinks about this six-year-old by Due Diligence, and he’s also backed that up with his recent race planning.

    Connections aimed him at the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint in Meydan in search of some better ground and he delivered for them to finish third in a hot race.

    The winner, California Spangle, was banging heads with Golden Sixty over in Hong Kong at eight furlongs last year, so his level of form is strong, and beating the likes of Slight Success (Lucky Sweynesse form), Casa Creed, and Danyah is admirable.

    As for his UK performances, he beat Annaf over six furlongs at Lingfield last year, form that looks good as the second won the Group 2 1351 Turf Sprint in Riyadh in February.

    He also beat Witch Hunter (subsequent Group 1 Lockinge Stakes third) over six furlongs at Newcastle and the form of last year’s Group 3 Hackwood Stakes looks strong thanks to Cold Case and Shartash.

    Following a good reappearance in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes last month, Cox is “desperately keen” to run this horse over five furlongs at Ascot and there is a lot to like about his profile.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Israr @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    I’m happy to go out on a limb and say that the Wolferton Stakes is between two horses in my head, though those two horses are well-found in the market.

    Torito is one of them as he was an eye-catcher at Newmarket when third in a nice handicap on his first start for 11 months, but I think Israr could have too much for him at this level.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is a solid Group 2 performer who is dropping into Listed company for the first time since his second to Quickthorn, a subsequent six-length Group 1 Goodwood Cup winner, in last year’s Grand Cup Stakes.

    After that, he pumped Adayar in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and four months later, he chased home Spirit Dancer in the Group 2 Bahrain International Stakes.

    On his most recent start, he gave Passenger (the once Prince Of Wales’s Stakes ante-post favourite) a great race to finish second in the Group 2 Huxley Stakes. He was also backed into the SP favourite that day, which is notable.

    As for his Ascot record, he was second to Al Qareem in the 2023 Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes and also finished third in the 2022 King George V Stakes, so that stat shows he’s fine with the track.

    If he runs up to his bets form, it’ll take a good horse to beat him.

     

    6:15 Ascot – Naqeeb @ 14/1 with William Hill (5 places) & Lmay @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pts EW

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    In the finale, I’m taking on the head of the market with two regally bred four-year-olds as Naqeeb and Lmay appeal to me.

    Starting with the former, the Baaeed half-brother has yet to reach the heights of his famous sibling, but pieces of form make him interesting.

    The gelding is rocking first-time cheekpieces, something that is bound to benefit him as he has shown tendencies to hang in his races and William Haggas’ strike rate with first-time cheekpieces is favourable (see tweet below).

    Connections entered Naqeeb into the Gold Cup at this very meeting hoping he would turn into a Group 1 horse, but he bombed out in the Group 2 Yorkshire Cup on his latest start, so they have lowered their sights to the Copper Horse Handicap instead.

    However, one can partially see why they thought he may end up in the marquee race of the royal meeting as he finished second to Middle Earth (a Group 3 winner with Melbourne Cup aspirations) on his third career start before bolting up at Kempton in a novice event.

    That form looks good and he is unexposed in handicap company having won on his only delve into this sphere, so Naqeeb is a bet here.

    As for Lmay, the 650,000gns yearling purchase is by Frankel and comes from that lucrative Juddmonte family of Logician, Okeechobee, and Suffused.

    This is her handicap debut as she contested Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 races last season, notably when a close third in the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster.

    Her form with Sumo Sam, One Evening, Tregony, Warm Heart, and Bluestocking is very solid for a horse rated 96 and she’s bound to come on for her run at York in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.

  • Sandown Chester, and York Tips | Stand and Guard

    Sandown Chester, and York Tips | Stand and Guard

    Today is the final Saturday to try and build up the bank ahead of Royal Ascot as Sandown, Chester, and York take centre stage.

    Last week, both bets failed to hit the frame, but I’m not losing hope on Jumby as his passage through the John Of Gaunt Stakes wasn’t an easy one, and by the time he had a chance to extend, his chance at winning the race had disappeared.

    He’s entered in a few handicaps at Royal Ascot, so if connections angle him to the royal meeting, he looks like one to keep onside.

    As for this weekend, a few horses have caught my attention, so let’s dive in.

     

    2:40 Sandown – Flora Of Bermuda @ 11/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Having backed Flora Of Bermuda to win the Group 2 Temple Stakes last-time-out, her antics at the stalls saw that betting slip go up in smoke almost immediately.

    However, I’m not losing any hope in her ability as she was a classy juvenile.

    To begin with, she finished sixth in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, though the first five came from the stands’ side and she was positioned on the far side.

    After that, she posted a cracking time at Glorious Goodwood when bolting up by four lengths in a fillies’ conditions stakes and two starts later, she finished second to Big Evs in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes.

    Admittedly, most of her form is on soft ground, but the sprinkling of rain that Sandown has received today should take the sting out of the ground. Her dam, Dubai Power, also won on good to firm ground.

    With race fitness on her side, she gets three pounds from the favourite Adaay In Devon, so she should run well here.

     

    3:20 Chester – Witness Stand @ 15/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Sticking with horses that I’ve previously backed, Witness Stand can build on his recent Chester effort over the same course and distance in the valuable Roodee Handicap.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye was second to the extremely well-backed Never So Brave from a bad stall last-time-out and he has an equally bad draw in 12 to negotiate today.

    However, the current forecasted rain for this afternoon will help his chance and his form in the book looks rock solid.

    Two starts ago, he finished a fair fifth Notable Speech (2000 Guineas winner), a race that has worked out well as the third (Persica) won the Lester Piggott Handicap at Epsom two weeks ago.

    Before that, he was second to Orne (a subsequent Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes runner-up) at Newmarket and as a two-year-old, he finished sixth in a hot renewal of the Group 2 Vintage Stakes.

    With an unchanged mark of 97, he can go well here.

     

    3:35 York – Imperial Guard @ 12/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In one of the more valuable handicaps today, Imperial Guard looks like an interesting contender who has scope to improve on his current rating of 84.

    The three-year-old Night Of Thunder colt is Andrew Balding’s only runner at York today, so connections are hoping the 442-mile round trip provides some success.

    Purchased for 270,000gns as a yearling, he made a good impression on his only two starts as a juvenile as he was third to Orne debut before finishing second to Zoum Zoum (a subsequent Listed Prix Herod winner) one start later.

    On his first start of this season, he quickened up nicely at Kempton to beat Sky Wizard (a horse with solid form alongside Equity Law and Fast Responder) over six furlongs before slightly disappointing next-time-out.

    Most recently, he had to come through horses at Ascot on his turf debut, but he travelled strongly and didn’t have the easiest route through the field.

    He’s likely to build on that effort and the good to soft going description should cause no issues as his full brother (Electric Storm) won this year’s Listed Cecil Frail on soft ground and his dam (Ancestral) put in her best effort on heavy ground.

    With solid form in the book and a nice pedigree (from the family of the Group 1 winner Quiff), 12/1 looks like a fair price for Imperial Guard.

     

    4:45 York – Orbaan @ 16/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Yes, I’m trusting a bit of a cliff horse in the penultimate race of the day from York as Orbaan has dropped to an attractive handicap mark.

    Admittedly, I backed him in his last race at Epsom hoping he’d return to his best form, but the quality of a Class 2 handicap and running on the outside of the field didn’t suit him too well.

    As such, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 83, a remarkable rating considering he had a rating of 100 at the start of last season.

    Having won on good to soft at York before (in July 2020), the ground shouldn’t cause any issues and this drop into Class 4 company (with the benefit of a few runs under his belt) can see him return to the winners’ enclosure.

  • Four To Follow: North And South

    Four To Follow: North And South

    In the build up to Royal Ascot next week, we begin to build our pot with meetings at both York and Sandown. Up North, we focus on the big sprints that York is so famous for. It’s the same down South as Sandown hosts the Scurry Stakes. Some nice value to sort out on today’s Four To Follow.

     

    York

    Sittin’ On The Dock

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    3:00 – Race To The Ebor Grand Cup (Listed) – Salt Bay @ 6/1 (General)

    Despite not winning a race since debut, Salt Bay is due a win. He came close at the start of the season as he only finished a neck down to Hamish in April. Hamish then finished an admirable second in the Coronation Cup. Salt Bay has deserved to step up in trip and may unlock the key to his success.

     

    A Town Up North

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    3:35 – Macmillan Sprint Handicap – Pocklington @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Located in 15 miles from York racecourse and trained up North in Malton, it may be written in the stars for Pocklington. The ground is acting on the easy side, which means the winner will be drawn from middle to high. Pocklington sits slap bang in the middle, and is on the pace of Media Shooter in the stall next door. A three-year-old destined for C&D trips in the future.

    When it comes to Yorkshire sprinters, Tim Easterby is king. Vince L’Amour is his top hope today, despite being a pound out of the handicap. It shouldn’t make too big a difference as he’s drawn in an area of plenty of pace. Expect him to go forward, and keep going as he should act on the soft side of good. 16/1 (William Hill).

    Twilight Romance should be one who’s prominent early on. Although he has shown indication he acts on firm ground, which may be a negative today with the ground on the softer side of good. But he’s drawn next to pace and acted well on the all-weather and should have matured to act on this type of ground into three. 18/1 (General).

     

    Sandown

    It’s Magic You Know

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    2:05 – talkSPORT Handicap – Dancing Magic @ 11/2 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Last year Dancing Magic was a group horse and has come down enough to perform at is level. He should act well with the ground and the booking of Oisin Murphy is worth looking at. He looks like he can’t manage big field handicaps, so this might be his cup of tea after tumbling down his marks enough.

    Terwada has come back to a mark of 90, which was his first winning mark as a three-year-old last season at Newmarket. He’s drawn next to some pace in the field and clearly loves going at the mile distance. Both Ed Walker and Tom Marquand are in good form too, so Terwada is worth a punt each-way. 11/1 (General).

     

    South Of The Equator

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    2:40 – Scurry Stakes (Listed) – Flora Of Bermuda @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Flora Of Bermuda could earn a nice title of Queen of the South tonight after coming down from a Group Two to Listed level. With Flora Of Bermuda she can either be on it or off it, and at Haydock a couple of weeks ago, she was off it. Now down to a Listed contest, it should suit her better than travelling to Royal Ascot for a sprint race well out of her depth.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: La-La Land

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: La-La Land

    It’s time for the biggest Classic of the year, the Derby. The race, which is defined by a single piece of wood, and often the makings of legends. This race has seen so many stars, it could create its own universe. It’s looking to add one more to that illustrious cast today. But who will it be? Plus, there’s the Dash and two more Group races to get stuck into. It’s Derby day’s Four To Follow.

     

    Le Freak

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    2:00 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Chic Colombine @ 15/2 (Unibet)

    Despite only two three-year-olds in the race, they have a decent record in the race with three wins in the last ten years. Chic Colombine is the pick of the bunch. With a generous 12-pound allowance, a liking for soft ground and coming back down from Group One company, she should outclass her rather out of form rivals.

    One of those out of form rivals, is Astral Beau who should prove better with a second bite of the cherry. She was a close third in this race last year on firm ground, but the ease should suit her better. For some reason, she wasn’t at all good at Newmarket in the Dahlia and it should be more of a decent contest, with a bit of form from Charyn in the Sandown Mile backing her up. 9/1 (BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    A Regal Gesture

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    2:35 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Regal Reality @ 9/2 (General)

    If there’s one horse suited to Group Three level, it’s Regal Reality. He has a good record at this level, with five wins out of nine. He won this race last year, the only race he won last season. It could be a sign that he is aimed at this race, but that’s whether he’ll break from the stalls well. He can manage all types of ground, so the extra juice that Epsom seems to have won’t bother him at all.

    And again, I find myself coming back to Royal Scotsman. It was obvious he was outclassed at Group One level in the Lockinge, so a drop two grades is a big plus. He’s also top rated, so can’t be written off too soon either. It will be a challenge to see whether he will suit Epsom, but two wins at Goodwood should put him in good stead. Decent chance, who is being chipped away at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    Soft And Sly

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    3:45 – Aston Martin “Dash” (Premier Handicap) – Silky Wilkie @ 4/1 (General)

    The main area to bet for this race is the pace map. Silkie Wilkie is drawn high, which has produced three winners in the last ten years and it’s often where you need to be. He’s drawn next to two runners who should make the running on the rail. Follow those in and he should have a decent shot. He didn’t run too badly at Musselburgh. He finished second in last year’s contest and is a massive eight pounds down. Should run a blinder today on the weights evidence.

    Dream Composer is also one who’s drawn next to the pace. He’s in between Antiphon and Democracy Dilemma., but may be held up for a run, which could help him up a slight decent in the final 100 yards. He can easily handle the softer ground, which should also aid him. He’s still at a fair weight with five pounds taken off him. Big race incoming from Dream Composer at 10/1 (William Hill).

    The Bell Conductor is one who should produce a big run at a big price. Drawn next to Antiphon, he should be able to latch on to the pace and go well down the helter-skelter of five furlongs at Epsom. Epsom is an unknown, but soft ground should help him, as his last win was on bottomless. He’s a similar profile to Dream Composer and should go well for Northern raider Craig Lidster. 20/1 (William Hill, Betfred).

     

    Angelic Dodger

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    4:30 – Betfred Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 9/2 (General)

    City Of Troy really disappointed at the Guineas. But it’s rather the same argument with Ylang Ylang. He may be wanting a step up, but it just may be too much. Even though he’s by Justify, he only ran, and won, once at a mile-and-a-half.

    Stablemate Los Angeles is far better qualified for this race. He is by Derby winner Camelot, currently unbeaten, won a recognised trial and has a mile-and-a-half throughout his family. The form hasn’t been tested form the Leopardstown Derby Trial, yet he was Group One winner over a mile-and-a-quarter at two. Staying pedigree is in his bones and, on paper, looks a stronger chance than City Of Troy.

    Ancient Wisdom cannot be discounted. Despite being beaten by six lengths at York, he looks to be a better horse over a mile-and-a-half. The Dubawi curse was broken by Ezeliya yesterday and can be matched as Ancient Wisdom’s mare also achieving over a mile-and-a-half. He’s the best to come out of the Dante, and esteemed trail. 6/1 (General) may be made to look foolish.

    Voyage is also steeped in Derby history. His grandsire Galileo has produced multiple Derby winners, and he’s by Derby winner Golden Horn. His family have been prominent over a mile-and-a-quarter, but that golden touch of Golden Horn could make him stay the distance. He’s the least experienced horse in the field with one run and one win, but the form has been backed up by two horses further down the field. Certain each-way claims at 25/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    It’s the most anticipated classics of the season, as he we head to the Downs. Epsom hosts the 245th Derby on Saturday, but today it’s the turn of the fillies. The Epsom Oaks should provide some clues for the showpiece event, but is still a high quality renewal. Plus a great undercard to tag along too, including the Coronation Cup.

     

    A Mega Story

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    2:00 – Betfred Woodcote Stakes – Megalithic @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Two things need to match in order for a horse to have a chance. Good form and good breeding. Ideally, a sprinter’s family as this is over six furlongs. Megalithic cost 220,000 guineas and is from a predominantly seven furlong family. He has black type too, which is an added bonus. Only one horse has tested the form of the Salisbury novice, and the fifth placed horse went out and won. It signals quality, so Megalithic could go well here.

    End Of Story also makes appeal. He won his first race on testing ground, so will be more than glad that the ground has eased from his debut at Thirsk. His debut produced three winners and is by the smart sprinter Bungle Inthejungle and has bred Group One winner Winter Power. The signs look good for Kevin Ryan’s two-year-old. 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Forever A Softie

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    2:35 – Trustatrader Handicap – Al Mubhir @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Whenever soft is in the title, Al Mubhir is usually near. His usual stomping ground is the King Richard III Cup at Leicester, but goes near whenever the ground is soft. He’s been dropped a pound after disappointing performance at York. The ground was good that day, so will appreciate ease in the ground today.

    Fantastic Fox performed well when finishing third in the 2022 edition, but not so well in 2023. He can handle the track on that evidence. With a claimer on board, he comes down to a previous winning mark of 92. He has gone well on soft ground before, plus firm ground, so preference shouldn’t be a worry. Decent shout at 10/1 (William Hill).

    Bopedro has been incredibly well done by the handicapper after a third place finish at York. He’s been dropped a pound after a decent performance, which makes him even more appealing. He won an Irish Cambridgeshire on similar ground and has won off the same mark before. Epsom’s an unknown, but should go well off the mark. 11/1 (William Hill).

     

    Old Favourites

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    3:10 – Coronation Cup (GROUP ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 11/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    This is Emily Upjohn’s first race of the British season and was a little disappointing. But the big thing that she has in her locker is she won the race last year and loves Epsom, as her first race of the season. She has won on the ground before and the small field will suit her. She’s already top rated, but the mares allowance puts her four lengths ahead of her nearest rival Luxembourg.

    Hamish has been dealt a harsh blow by the markets. It’s clearly his trip, he won’t be pulled out because of the ground and regularly outclasses Group Three rivals. Despite his success at that level, he’s never won a Group One, but came second in an Irish St Leger. He is destined for Group One’s and has been a long time coming. 15/2 (William Hill).

     

    Diamonds In The Rough

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    4:30 – Betfred Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Rubies Are Red @ 7/1 (William Hill, Betfred)

    In order to find these diamonds, I’ve had to search and eliminate as best as I can. Despite Ryan Moore taking the ride on Ylang Ylang. Despite people saying she’s crying out for further, she’s not bred to go a mile-and-half. Ezeliya is, but the form doesn’t back her up. Forest Fairy is bred for the distance, but lacks experience.

    Rubies Are Red, however, has everything in her favour. Brilliant breeding, out of Red Evie who bred Arc winner Found, Oaks third Divinely and Best In The World, who in turn bred Oaks winner Snowfall. Another half furlong and Rubies Are Red would have caught the lagging You Got To Me and will more than relish the mile-and-a-quarter trip. Despite not breaking her maiden she looks tailor-made for Epsom.

    Another small diamond is Secret Satire. York has a knack for providing Epsom winners, and last year’s winner did cause an upset in the Musidora. Despite being bred by a sprinter, her mother offers her the attempt to go further. Coming on from York she should settle better and look more professional here at Epsom. 12/1 (General).

    But one shining light in all of this is Noel Meade’s Caught U Looking. Fourth in the Salsabil, she would have preferred a little more give in the ground like Epsom should have. She’s by Derby winner Harzand, which is a massive positive. She has lots of mile-and-a-quarter running through her bloodline and will be a threat. Stall One may have other ideas. Still worth a go at 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Irish 1000 Guineas

    Four To Follow: Irish 1000 Guineas

    After a hectic day of racing and Cup Final football, we continue the madness with the play-off final and the Irish 1000 Guineas. Over here we focus on the racing and can Aidan O’Brien make it 11 wins in the second Irish Classic? Or can it be a UK Irish Guineas double? Find out below, plus all tips from Group races at The Curragh

     

    Loveable Rogue

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    2:35 – Lanwades Stud Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    Rogue Millennium was a great story for Tom Clover and the Rogues Gallery, but now she resides with Joseph O’Brien under the colours of Scott Helder. This could herald a new start for the Royal Ascot winning filly and she begins her five-year-old career here. She seems to go well between a mile and a mile and a quarter and the ground will be in her favour too. She was also runner up to Tahyira at Leopardstown last year so there is plenty of talent in her.

    Ocean Jewel had a bit of a hard time last year and couldn’t quite find her groove, but the stable are looking more confident with her this season. She won a Group Three in June but failed to fire in two subsequent Group One’s. A Group Two might be a bit of a stiff start, but as a half-sister to 1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth, she’ll improve with age. 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    A Champion Returns

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    3:10 – Tattersalls Gold Cup (Group One) – Auguste Rodin @ Evs (William Hill)

    You just don’t know what you’re going to get with Auguste Rodin. One race he’s the champion of the world, the next he just doesn’t feel like racing. He was thoroughly disappointing in Dubai yet lit up the Breeders’ Cup. This looks a little more straightforward for the Irish Champion Stakes winner and has already beaten the second favourite twice. This is a race he should dominate.

     

    Get Back Up Again

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    3:45 – Irish 1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 9/2 (General)

    This is a wide-open contest. Opera Singer has been saved for this race, but with comments like ‘she’ll come on for the run’ fill me with doubt. Therefore, I’m going with the tried and tested Fallen Angel. Already a winner at the course, she looked as though she going to be up there at the finish at Newmarket but hung left and was pushed right. If she can replicate her Moyglare run, she could be hard to beat.

    One I particularly like in the field is the unbeaten A Lilac Rolla. She beat Opera Singer on her second start by a head, and the form worked out for her well after that. She’s come down the most common trial to win this race, the Priory Belle. The form stacked up well from that race and is from a family who love the mile trip. She’s capable on the ground too. A threat at 17/2 (General).

     

    Nothing But The Truth

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    4:15 – Gallinule Stakes (Group Three) – Spoken Truth @ 3/1 (General)

    Half of these horses are experienced at two-year-old level, and some are starting their careers off this season. I’m voting for the horse that has already won over a mile and a quarter. Spoken Truth was nothing but impressive at Cork against an Aidan O’Brien runner that went close again next time out. The fact that she’s a half-sister to Irish 1000 Guineas winner Homeless Songs makes her all the more appealing.

    The very best of luck!

  • Irish 2000 Guineas Day | Storm brewing in the Ocean

    Irish 2000 Guineas Day | Storm brewing in the Ocean

    After a few blockbuster weeks filled with plenty of columns, we are back to regular scheduled viewing with Irish 2000 Guineas Day this weekend.

    Saying that, today’s action would excite even the most pessimistic horse racing fan as there’s something for everyone.

    With a Classic card over in Ireland, competitive racing in Haydock, and interesting contests at both York and Goodwood, what’s not to like?

    So, with this in mind, let’s highlight a few bets for Saturday’s mouth-watering action.

     

    1:30 Goodwood – Al Shabab Storm @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Al Shabab Storm was unlucky not to land the spoils for the column at Chester on his last start, and I don’t want to ditch him here in the opener at Goodwood.

    A few things are different today compared to Chester as this is a Class 2 handicap and over seven furlongs, but the three-year-old by Advertise came close to winning over this distance at Newmarket in September and he’s run well in Listed company before.

    Looking back on the Chester run, he put in some effort despite not winning as he raced out the back for a while and Oisin Murphy made the decision to pull him out to give him a clear view at the line.

    In my mind, Murphy did this as he knew the ability he had underneath him, but this resulted in him coming six-wide into the home straight while the winner had a nice route up the rail.

    A reproduction of that run would see him go close here, and a mark of 90 still looks workable.

     

    1:50 Haydock – Flora Of Bermuda @ 16/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    Backing three-year-old sprinters immediately after their juvenile campaign is always a brave game, but the angle with Flora Of Bermuda is one I can’t ignore.

    The Dark Angel was a sharp filly last year as she nearly won on debut and then finished sixth in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot; she was on the wrong side of the track that day but still finished first of her group.

    That race is a solid piece of form as the winner, Crimson Advocate, finished sixth behind Big Evs in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and the second, Relief Rally, won the Group 2 Lowther Stakes subsequently.

    Speaking of Big Evs, Andrew Balding’s £340,000 purchase was second to the globetrotting superstar in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster in September.

    However, it’s Flora Of Bermuda’s win at Goodwood in August that has caught my attention the most.

    On that day, she bolted up over five furlongs on soft ground on the same day that Big Evs won the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes.

    She carried one pound less than Michael Appleby’s stable star, but her final two furlongs were quicker than that of Big Evs and the overall race times were almost identical.

    This occurred on a day when the ground was constantly worsening due to persistent rain as well.

    Overall, 16/1 looks like a huge price for her in the Group 2 Temple Stakes for all the reasons above.

     

    2:30 Curragh – Ocean Quest @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    One yard that is in red-hot form currently is the Jessica Harrington team, and I’m hoping Ocean Quest can continue that trend in the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes.

    Firstly, I think an important point to highlight is the ground conditions at the Curragh as the official going is good which places an element of doubt over the favourite, the Curragh specialist Art Power.

    Of his nine career successes, only two have come on good ground and his best recent form has occurred on a slightly slower surface.

    As for Ocean Quest, although she won on heavy at the start of last season, that success was a weird run as the two Aidan O’Brien horses didn’t fire and connections have pulled her from two separate races due to heavy ground.

    Last season, she finished a good fourth in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup behind Shaquille and Little Big Bear (a strong piece of form) and then bolted up in a Group 3 at Naas (the second won a Listed race two starts later).

    Two subsequent runs on soft ground didn’t suit her, but she made an eye-catching return last month when second to Moss Tucker over five furlongs on yielding ground.

    She had no clear passage last time out, though she quickened away smartly when the gap appeared and Shane Foley eased her down once he realised victory was out of the equation.

    She’s likely to come on for that run and the return to six furlongs is a positive.

     

    3:20 York – Trevaunance @ 11/1 with Sky Bet (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Finally, over at York, it’s another Jessica Harrington-trained horse that I’m taking a swing on as Trevaunance is a very interesting contender in the Group 3 Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes.

    The five-year-old steps up to 1m6f for the first time today, and although that is an unknown, there’s not much to suggest she won’t get this new trip.

    Once you get around that barrier, her chance in this company looks strong.

    Out of the 2013 Group 3 Musidora Stakes winner Liber Nauticus, the five-year-old by Muhaarar has always shown ability throughout her career and she has Group 1 form in the book to boast about.

    Last season, she was fourth to Mqse De Sevigne in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet before she finished third in the Group 2 Blanford Stakes.

    Lumiere Rock and Jackie Oh, the 1-2 from the Blanford Stakes, went on to frank the form as they finished third and second respectively behind Blue Rose Cen in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera.

    Even looking back on her form from 2022 is promising as she beat Mqse De Sevigne on two occasions in France.

    Harrington sending one so far for a race away from the main Flat festivals is always worth a second look, and if she takes to this extended trip, she has the form in the book to win this contest.