Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Four To Follow: Living The Dream + Irish 2000 Guineas

    Four To Follow: Living The Dream + Irish 2000 Guineas

    Itā€™s a busy day all around the British Isles. Premier racedays at Haydock and Goodwood, a group race at York plus the small matter of Irish Guineas Weekend over at The Curragh. You could say racing fans are in a dream world today. Iā€™ve managed to distil it down to three races at Haydock plus the main Group One event for Four To Follow.

     

    Haydock

    No More Rain

    1:15 ā€“ Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (Heritage) ā€“ Candonomore @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    With the removal of Volterra from proceedings, signs show that the ground is not just soft, it’s Haydock soft. One horse who can combat this is the new favourite, Candonomore for Tim Easterby. He won not only over C&D last time out, but also on similar ground too. Despite being impressive, winning by nearly four lengths, he comes into this race bottom of the weights and looks very appealing.

    Sir Les Patterson is making his turf debut today but should command respect with two wins to his name. His last win at Kempton saw him holding off a late challenge and digging in deep. Heā€™s drawn next to Volterra in stall 12, so will have the challenge of overcoming a particularly nasty draw. Nut the trend for this race has been horses coming off the back of a couple of wins, and Sir Les Patterson ticks that box and is weighted nicely. Each-way value at 10/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Things Can Only Get Better

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    1:50 ā€“ Betfred Temple Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Live In The Dream @ 7/2 (General)

    Live In The Dream was one of the best stories of the season when he won the Nunthorpe at the Ebor meeting, but sadly the American dream didnā€™t come true. Last year he came third in this race, beaten by the then three-year-old Dramatised. He had a few hard luck stories last season but comes in here top weighted. Some will say that Live In The Dream wants fast rattling ground, but he has won and performed on soft well previously.

    As mentioned, three-year-olds have a decent record in the race. With so much weight given to them itā€™s hard to ignore. Seven Questions should have the answers. In his two-year-old season he showed a liking for soft ground, so will handle it at Haydock, and comes into this race off the back of a win. He managed to fly home down the outside on the Rowley mile on good ground, so the softer the better for him. 14/1 (General).

     

    Never Forget

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    2:25 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Vandeek @ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Everyone has seem to have forgotten about Vandeek. Heā€™s an unbeaten colt who performed exceptionally well last season and improved with every run. If you look at his form, heā€™s won on all sorts of ground, including soft. The form worked out into this season when Givemethebeatboys, third in last yearā€™s Cheveley Park, won at Naas in April. I have every confidence he will deliver.

    One of my favourite horses in training, Purosangue, should run a decent race in behind. Knowing his mother, Avon Breeze, he will definitely get the ground. Heā€™s also proven that with a win at York at the back-end of last season. Despite being one of the low rated horses in the race, ground will matter a lot over the sprint course. 9/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Curragh

    Not Another One

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    3:40 ā€“ Irish 2000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) ā€“ Rosallion @ 10/11 (William Hill)

    If thereā€™s one thing separating River Tiber and Rosallion, itā€™s that Rosallion has run and won over a mile. Rosallion finished the best of the favourites behind Notable Speech but was himself nearly two lengths clear of third. Top rated and surely heading for a rematch against Notable Speech at Ascot, he has to be feared most here. And there doesnā€™t look to be another major upset in this one.

    I also think that for the Irish, Unquestionable is their best shout. Unquestionable has form behind Rosallion, in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere, and followed that second up with a win at the Breedersā€™ Cup. For Ryan Moore to choose a horse that hasnā€™t run over a mile may prove to be unwise, and Iā€™m going with the second runner for Ballydoyle to run a good race in behind the odds-on favourite. 7/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    After a mixed week at the Dante Festival, we now move in to the first Group One for the older horses this season. The straight mile at Newbury sees the Lockinge Stakes return, with an international feel. A French raider is in town, can he stamp his authority? Plus a cracking undercard to complete Saturdayā€™s Four To Follow.

     

    A Hot Hero

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    1:50 ā€“ Aston Park Stakes (Group Three) ā€“ Desert Hero @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    We kick off Lockinge Day with the Aston Park and Desert Hero comes to Newbury looking to avenge his agonising defeat at Sandown in April. He was only beaten by a neck by Okeechobee, but was rallying all the way to the line and needed a few extra yards. From that warm up race heā€™s been stepped up to his usual mile-and-a-half and stepped down to a Group Three. His near odds-on price should come as a shock to no one.

     

    Taking Relief

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    2:25 ā€“ Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) ā€“ Relief Rally @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally was one of the impressive two-year-olds over the sprint distance. She certainly showed her speed both over the flying five in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury and in the Group Two Lowther at York. Her reappearance was a little off over seven furlongs, but back down to the sprint distance, down in class and with a weight allowance, Relief Rally should kickstart what could be a terrific day for William Haggas.

     

    King To Knight

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    3:00 ā€“ London Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) ā€“ Kingā€™s Gambit @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    One of the hotly anticipated three-year-old handicaps of the season, this often dictates how this yearā€™s crop are going to fair. Kingā€™s Gambit in particular is one of unique interest. He had a decent enough novice career, winning over a mile at the course as a two-year-old. But trainer Harry Charlton has been aiming this horse at the London Gold Cup all winter. Being high in the handicap is not a bad thing in this race, particularly if youā€™ve got a lot of ability.

    Joanna Mason and Mick & David Easterby celebrated a shock winner at the Dante Festival this week. And they havenā€™t been bad recently, training four good winners in the process. Mason has had a few wins and places herself too. They team up and head down South with Spirit Of Acklam, who has improved stepping up in distance each time. His win at Ripon by three lengths is one to take note of. 10/1 (William Hill).

    Form also counts in this race, particularly when youā€™ve finished behind a Classic winner. Persica was third behind Notable Speech at Kempton last time out, before he went and won the Guineas a couple of weeks ago. In his novice career, it looked as though he needed juice in the ground to be at his best. He looks like heā€™s got his ground here and form to match a nice weight in the race. 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    What The Rock Is Cookingā€¦

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    3:35 ā€“ Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (GROUP ONE) ā€“ Big Rock @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    Iā€™ve been waiting, like many people have, to see Big Rock reappear. And when a horse who thrashed British horses by 15-and-a-half lengths, itā€™s a worry. He does have to contest with Inspiral, who can return well but will want the ground firm. Big Rock can go anything with juice in the ground. It will also be interesting to see how he performs for a new stable, four weeks after he moved in.

    For the Brits, Charyn has had an excellent start to the season. He was dominant in both the Doncaster Mile and bet365 Mile at Sandown. Whilst they were both Listed and Group Two races, he showed a Group One ability that might see him hit the frame. Or even win and make it a stunning start to the season for Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian. 6/1 (General).

    Itā€™s also great to see Royal Scotsman reappear. Third in the 2000 Guineas last year, he had excuses of why he ran so poorly in the Irish 2000 Guineas and St Jamesā€™s Palace Stakes. We then didnā€™t see him run for the rest of the season, but heā€™s back and thrown straight into the deep end. The vibes are good from the Cole stable, and could run well and set up some nice prizes later down the line. 14/1 (Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Willieā€™s In Theā€¦ Group Race?

    Four To Follow: Willieā€™s In Theā€¦ Group Race?

    We resumed normal service with two winners and four places. Clarendon House and Economics made us end in profit and go into the final day of the Dante Festival on an even keel. Today itā€™s the turn of the older horses, with the Yorkshire Cup taking centre stage. And thereā€™s one horse who looks like he shouldnā€™t belong thereā€¦

     

    A Blooming Bet

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    2:45 ā€“ Knights Solicitors Handicap ā€“ Botanical @ 100/30 (General)

    Botanical was one of my bets for Chester last week, but swerved the Roodee due to the ground and has come up to the Knavesmire. Roger Varian hasnā€™t had the best of times lately, but heā€™s waited to get Botanical out for a while and thinks his best opportunity is here. The bend will help him, given his wins have come at Hamilton, which has a bend. Ground is in his favour and his last run was finishing six lengths in front of the Lincoln winner, Mr Professor.

    Eilean Dubh has had a dry spell since mid-Summer last year. But he showed some promise last time out at Thirsk and should come on for the run. Stepped back up in trip and down two pounds to a mark of 89 should make the world of difference. Heā€™s run and won over a mile before, but this step up in trip could show a new side to Eilean Dubh. Unexposed at 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    I canā€™t ignore a horse whoā€™s well-in in the handicap. Loyal Touch for local trainer Charlie Johnston was only half-a-length behind the eventual winner Tony Montana when he just couldnā€™t keep on. But he was clear two-and-a-half lengths clear of third and has been ultra consistent in his last three runs. One narrow win and two narrow defeats, plus well-in in the handicap makes Loyal Touch one to watch. 9/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Colourful And Bright

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    3:15 ā€“ Michael Seely Memorial Filliesā€™ Stakes (Listed) ā€“ True Cyan @ 4/1 (General)

    True Cyan might be a little looked over in the market after her fourth in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, but the form is backed up, somewhat. Kathmandu ran a blinder in the French 1000 Guineas last Sunday and finished a little under two lengths behind her. Her maiden win has been backed with plenty of form and the step up to the mile will suit her better than seven furlongs.

    And just one little shoutout to Carolina Reaper. She was sent on a fact-finding mission over ten furlongs where she ran into Friendly Soul. She was extremely disappointing in the Musidora, but 10 furlongs was never her distance. The mile will suit her so much better and at this level, she should run a big race at 25/1 (General).

     

    Group Getter

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    3:45 ā€“ Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) ā€“ Vauban @ 7/2 (General)

    How is Vauban second favourite? In a Group race? Over a mile and six furlongs? Trained by the British Champion jumps trainer?

    Tower Of London was good in the Middle East, take nothing away from those performances. But heā€™s up against a Royal Ascot winner, a Grade One winning hurdler and a horse who has now been rerouted to go on the flat. Vauban is a made Gold Cup, if not Group One winner. His price boggles the mind.

     

    Surrounded

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    4:15 ā€“ Darley EBF Novice Stakes ā€“ Under Siege @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    An intriguing novice stakes makes up our fourth race, and one horse comes in with his form rocket boosted. Under Siege was beaten by none other than Economics and still stands as second favourite. There are some more boosts behind Under Siege as well and Andrew Balding has had a good patch of form recently. Local rider Danny Tudhope gives him an extra boost.

    Dark Tornado has also some good form behind him after finishing second last September. Heā€™s joined James Horton, who looks to have a useful horse on his hands and should have progressed well from two to three. He has plenty of distance form, over the mile, in his breeding and is an interesting price at 9/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    The Dante Festival and York remained as unpredictable as ever. The Placepot won over Ā£28,000, which just shows how unpredictable yesterday was for not only backing winners but backing each-way shots too. Hopefully today is easier with four more tips from the Knavesmire.

    A Full House

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    2:15 ā€“ Lindum York Handicap ā€“ Clarendon House @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    With the ground now good, Clarendon House has a great opportunity. Heā€™s been running on the All-weather this Winter and has found success. No less on his current mark of 105. Whilst he did come fourth on heavy ground on his first turf start of the season, he was only one-and-a-half lengths behind, so the ground can be blamed for that result. On a winning mark, with good ground in his favour and drawn next the pace which comes from stall 11, he presents one of the best chances in the race.

    Alligator Alley is no stranger to York. His last result on the Knavesmire was only beaten by a neck during the Ebor Festival. Since then, heā€™s mostly been running on the all-weather and comes into this race low in the weights. Heā€™s dropped down to a mark of 89 so it should suit him better. Heā€™s only won two turf races on firm ground, which is a worry. But a low mark should see him come over that obstacle. 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Good Earth looks to have a good chance as an outsider. With three pounds taken off by Connor Planas, heā€™s down to a previous winning mark. He loves give in the ground and he can go prominent as heā€™s drawn next to Arecibo. His last win came off a two-pound higher mark as well so he should be in the mix at the finish. 22/1 (General).

     

    Always Fun Up North

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    2:45 ā€“ Hambleton Handicap ā€“ Northern Express @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Northern Express loves York. Heā€™s raced there for the Michael Dods team 13 times and won three. Heā€™s finished in the top three eight times, so has a decent enough strike record over both a mile and seven furlongs. He can go any ground, but will appreciate the dig in the ground that going is giving. Heā€™s on a mark of 100, which is only a pound above his highest winning mark of 99. Win number four incoming for Northern Express. Choo-Choo!

    Bopedro looks an interesting runner. He hasnā€™t won since August off a mark of 98, and heā€™s back down to that mark today. His best performances seem to come on marks in the 90s, so expect one today with a mark of 98. He can go on all sorts of ground and was placed at York last season as well. 25/1 (Boylesports) looks an absolute steal.

    Cruyff Turn won the race two years ago for Tim Easterby. He hasnā€™t been running well of late but goes down to a mark of 88. Thatā€™s two pounds below a previous mark of 90 and loves cut in the ground. He competed in this race last year off a seven pound higher mark and Easterby might have had this race in mind after disappointing in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Let-Er Rip

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    3:15 ā€“ Middleton Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Free Wind @ 7/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Free Wind goes extremely well fresh. Sheā€™s won all three of her races off a break and doesnā€™t seem to come on for the runs after. However she did win four races as a three-year-old. She won this race last season by half a length and all her opponents had decent seasons after that. Donā€™t expect anything of Free Wind this season unless sheā€™s coming off a break.

     

    Wisdom Number Four

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    3:45 ā€“ Dante Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Ancient Wisdom @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Ancient Wisdom looks a lot more solid as a Derby contender than most. His form as a two-year-old stacks up impressively with three winners and three places from the Futurity Trophy. Heā€™s by the legend that is Dubawi and out of a Group Three winning mare over a mile-and-a-half. He should come on for the step up in trip and handle it well.

    Donā€™t discount Economics in this race. Two winners have already come out of his maiden win at Newbury and were well down the field against Economics. Despite being by a miler, his mother was a Group Two winner over a mile and a half so will handle the step up in trip and looks a nice price at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • York Dante Festival Day 2 Bets | Lighting up the Alley

    York Dante Festival Day 2 Bets | Lighting up the Alley

    Day two of the York Dante Festival is here, so hereā€™s a quick review of day one.

    Chillingham returned EW money yesterday, and he did well to do that in fairness as he found himself out the back of a slowly run race, so his performance deserves plenty of credit.

    The less said about Wahraan the better as he dramatically missed the brake again and Mortlake failed to land a blow, though he still ran well. Heā€™ll come on for that.

    So, letā€™s dive into day two on what is a tough betting card.

     

    2:15 York ā€“ Alligator Alley @ 9/1 with William Hill (6 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Starting in the opening handicap of the day, Alligator Alley is down to a mark that makes him dangerous at a track he has acted on before.

    The seven-year-old is very race-fit thanks to a winter all-weather campaign, one that failed to produce any victories despite some solid runs.

    Because of this, heā€™s on a mark of 89, two pounds below his last winning mark which occurred in the Racing League when he was a facile winner at Newcastle.

    Furthermore, when he finished second to Equilateral in a York heritage handicap in August 2023, he had a rating of 92, so he’s well-in on that run.

    His rating of 89 is a career-low, so hopefully he makes use of that.

     

    2:45 York ā€“ Symbol Of Light @ 25/1 with Paddy Power (6 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Iā€™m taking a chance in the second race that Symbol Of Light takes to the turf as well as heā€™s taken to the all-weather.

    The five-year-old sported the silks of Godolphin in his early years, though after an extended break from the track, he joined Julie Camacho under the ownership of Martin Hughes.

    With one turf run so far for Camacho, that occurred after a break on soft Doncaster ground, so a slightly better York surface should suit him better.

    So far for Camacho, he has faced trouble in two of his last four runs, one of which occurred at Kempton in November when behind Choisya (Listed runner-up on her next start) and the other happened at Newcastle when behind Dear My Friend (now rated 16lbs higher).

    Therefore, a more open York track should give him a better chance of coming off the pace and connections have given the son of Shamardal a wind-op in the run-up to this race. He also sports a set of first-time cheekpieces.

    With a turf rating that is five pounds below his all-weather mark, he has a chance to prove himself on Thursday and I hope he can as he deserves to land a good pot.

  • York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    Saturdayā€™s column covering the action at Ascot and Lingfield regained the losses obtained from Chester last week, so we sit in profit ahead of the York Dante Festival.

    Fair play to the ground staff at York Racecourse for their frequent and detailed updates on the ground, so it looks as if the ground will start on good, good to firm in places.

    Letā€™s dive in.

     

    2:15 York ā€“ Chillingham @ 7/1 with BetVictor (4 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    In the opener, there are a few reasons to think Chillingham could run well under Callum Rodriguez.

    Trainer Edward Bethell applies the first-time cheekpieces to his five-year-old by Ulysses today, and based on his recent performances, this should help as he wandered slightly when second at Wolverhampton three starts ago.

    Speaking of that run, that marked his first dive into a 14-furlong race and P J McDonald decided to stride on with him early into the race, so he did well to remain in contention at the line on his first start at the extended distance.

    Prydwen (who has improved 14lbs since) won the race and Zealandia (rated 4lbs higher) finished third; Zealandia beat stablemate Enemy two starts later, a piece of form that looks strong as Enemy beat Military Order (2023 Lingfield Derby Trial winner) at Southwell before finishing second to Tower Of London in the Group 3 Red Sea Turf Handicap.

    The recent rain will help take the sting out of the ground, so heā€™ll have no excuses in that department, and a mark of 96 is 1lb below the mark he was on when he finished a close second at Ripon in a Class 2 0-105 handicap.

     

    4:15 York ā€“ Mortlake @ 8/1 with BetVictor (4 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    If Ralph Beckett has Mortlake ready to go on his first start of the season, there is a lot to like about his profile in this handicap.

    The three-year-old has to shoulder top weight, but he deserves to based on his juvenile season.

    The 100,000gns purchased bolted up by five lengths at Leicester on his second start of the season before he contested the Group 3 Solario Stakes.

    He came home in fifth that day, beaten just over two lengths, but the third (Devilā€™s Point) finished second in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes on his next start.

    Furthermore, he shaped nicely behind horses that day and Rossa Ryan had to momentarily stop riding one furlong from home as his mount moved tight to the rail.

    Connections have gelded him since and he drops into handicap company for the first time, so his mark of 96 looks interesting.

     

    5:20 York ā€“ Wahraan @ 9/2 with William Hill (6 places) ā€“ 2pt Win

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    In the finale, despite his quirky character, Wahraan gets the nod in the Class 4 0-85 handicap.

    The six-year-old has had his fair share of issues so far during his career as he had a total of 786 days away from the track between September 2021 and December 2023.

    However, having started his career with Sir Michael Stoute, the six-year-old by Le Havre is under the guidance of Jamie Osborne and has scope in his mark to improve.

    Firstly, the chestnut gelding once had a rating of 96 ā€“ admittedly, in 2021 ā€“ but his time on the sidelines and a few poor runs have pushed his mark down to 82.

    On his last start, he wore a hood for the first time and dropped into a Class 4 handicap for the second time, and despite giving up nearly eight lengths at the start, he stayed on past horses to finish a close third.

    That wasnā€™t the first time he displayed issues at the starting stalls but it was the most pronounced event of his career.

    His actions out of the gates are a concern for today, but he is riddled with talent and he even comes from the same family as Was (2012 Epsom Oaks winner), Douglas Macarthur (2017 Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial winner), and Amhran Na Bhfiann (2020 Epsom Derby third).

    All things considered, Iā€™ll give him a chance today.

  • Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    The Dante Festival signals the return of the season at York Racecourse. Oaks and Derby trials take place here each week and the racing public pay close attention as often they produce those who find Epsom gold. We kick off the week with two cracking handicaps, a fantastic group sprint race and the Musidora for a midweek Four to Follow.

     

    Champ Of The Knavesmire

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    2:15 ā€“ Jorvik Handicap ā€“ Marhaba The Champ @ 4/1 (General)

    Northern trainers all do well at York. The Dante and Ebor Festivals are always targeted by those big yards that train in Yorkshire.

    Kevin Ryan is one such individual. Last year Marhaba The Champ won twice on the Knavesmire, during the Dante and Ebor meetings. This horse has been well-targeted to run at those two meetings, and donā€™t be surprised if he is again this season. Despite some rain, the ground is holding up and can dry out quickly at York, which can bring up win number three for Marhaba.

    Chillingham comes into this race with a great looking handicap mark. Heā€™s been dropped a pound for placing within a length last time out at Ripon, which seems really odd. Despite some near misses on soft ground recently, he has won on firmer once before. The ground should suit and he should be able to make a rather lenient, yet light, drop in the handicap work. 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Saratoga Gold hasnā€™t had the best of times running since winning at Kempton last year. He also unseated his rider during the Queen Mother Cup at York last year as well. However, he has won on firmer ground over the distance and further. Plus a mark of 88 looks good, considering heā€™s drawn on the rail. Shortest route to take at 25/1 (General).

     

    Going For Gold

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    2:45 ā€“ Churchill Tyres Handicap ā€“ Aberama Gold @ 11/1 (William Hill)

    Sprint handicaps at York cannot be beat. So many familiar names turn up and you just sit back and enjoy. Former Stewardā€™s Cup winner Aberama Gold after three wins in big handicaps last season. He is starting to get back into his groove after fishing third at the Craven meeting and the handicapper has dropped him a pound after his last run at the Guineas meeting. This puts him on his last winning mark, and the ground should be to his liking. Heā€™s also drawn near the pace too which makes him a great bet.

    Great Ambassador also looks to be well handicapped for this race. Last season he was mostly see in Group races, but heā€™s back down to a mark of 97. He won a handicap at Newmarket off that figure on firm ground as well. Plenty of speed should suit him drawn in the middle at 10, drawn next to Hispanic, so could we see him back to winning ways for the first time since 2021? A nice each-way bet at 14/1 (General).

    Monsieur Kodi also looks interesting for Richard Fahey. He found no luck in running at Ripon last time out and the handicapper has dropped him. He was narrowly beaten off a mark of 85 so things might go well for him a pound lower in the weights. Heā€™s stepped back up to a more comfortable six furlongs and wonā€™t mind what ground he gets. Great each-way price at 18/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A-Zure Bet

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    3:15 ā€“1895 Duke Of York Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Azure Blue @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    This is one of the best Group races already this season. Plenty of action and plenty who hold chances. But Iā€™m sticking with the favourite. With Art Power carrying a penalty, and Azure Blue with an allowance, the latter is the top rated in the field. Having won this race last season and acting well at the start of the season. She goes well fresh, so her price makes her look more attractive.

    Washington Heights shockingly won the Abernant. Trainer Kevin Ryan says that he wonā€™t want too much rain, and with firm still in the going, he has every chance to shock them again. Washington Heights has always raced well at York, only beaten twice both by a head. With a horse that won last time out, acts on the ground and a like for the course, 10/1 (General) is a great price.

    Letā€™s not forget there are a couple of Group One winners in this field. One of them being Khaadem. He begins his defence of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes after winning at 80/1. He enjoys six furlongs better than five, and firm ground. With all of that in mind, a price of 18/1 (BetVictor) doesnā€™t take into account his Group One pedigree.

     

    What My Friends Call Meā€¦

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    3:45 ā€“ Musidora Stakes (Group Three) ā€“ Friendly Soul @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    John & Thady Gosden sent last yearā€™s Musidora/Oaks winner Soul Sister off at 18/1. This time they have been found out with an exceptional horse. Friendly Soul routed the field in the Pretty Polly, beating the well-fancied Kalpana in the process and looked like she might go further. Her breeding suggests that this might be her limit, but donā€™t knock it until you try. She looks tailor-made for the Musidora.

    The very best of luck!

  • Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    After keeping our head above the water through the first two days of the Chester May Festival, I was hopeful that we could head into Lingfield Derby Trial Day in a nice position.

    However, yesterday didnā€™t go to the script as Boardman stayed on past horses in the opener, Mashhoor went too hard too soon in the Huxley Stakes, and both of the Chester Cup fancies (despite the late support for Too Friendly) failed to fire.

    To round up the day, Chillhi pulled four-and-a-half lengths clear of the third but found the Tony Carroll-trained Oman too good. That hurt.

    So, letā€™s pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off as here are my main plays for Saturday.

    Ā 

    1:30 Ascot ā€“ King Of The Plains @ 11/2 with William Hill (5 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    In the opener at Ascot, King Of The Plains holds plenty of intrigue on his first start for James Horton.

    Starting with his form, he ran into Banderas (a horse who was third to Saint George and Sweet William at Southwell in April 2023) at Chester on his debut before a solid second to Ghara when giving weight away.

    The winner that day now has a rating of 93 and finished fourth in the Listed Lingfield Oaks before that race, so that form looks solid.

    By Roaring Lion out of the two-time Group 1 winner Golden Lilac, he is entitled to improve massively now he is a four-year-old as he didnā€™t race at two and he looks like a big-framed gelding.

    However, one of the more interesting things is the fact that Qatar Racing sold him 47,000gns at the Tattersalls HIT Sale in October, though David Redvers ā€“ the racing manager to Qatar Racing ā€“ is still one of the part-owners.

    Redvers is also the racing manager to David Howden, one of the other part-owners, and today is the day that Oisin Murphy (one of the retained riders for Qatar Racing) is having his first ride for Horton.

    Iā€™ll give a quick word to Tony Calvin who highlighted this first in his Betfair Racing column. He worked this all out and Iā€™m just passing on the information here, but this is all very interesting nonetheless.

    Off a mark of 82, he should have some improvement to come and todayā€™s assignment looks like an ideal place to start that progress.

     

    2:05 Ascot ā€“ Strong Impact @ 11/2 with SkyBet (5 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Moving onto the second race at Ascot, Strong Impact is a horse that can improve past her mark of 81 in this Ā£45,000 filliesā€™ handicap.

    The four-year-old by Saxon Warrior had a decent three-year-old campaign as she ran into Infinite Cosmos ā€“ the Group 3 Musidora Stakes third – on her second career start before a good second over 1m4f at Newmarket.

    That race got a form boost when Sumo Sam won the Group 2 Park Hill Filliesā€™ Stakes at Doncaster and even the fourth, Marmara Sea, won a handicap off 75 at Haydock in September.

    Since then, she bolted up at Epsom in a race she was entitled to win (though she clocked some fast sectionals this day) and then she blew off the cobwebs at Chelmsford in April.

    Although sheā€™s unsuccessful in two handicap contests, she finished second in the first one at Sandown where she ran into a Sir Mark Prescott horse who had recently stepped up in trip.

    Strong Impact was also boxed in for a while and the winner got the first run on her, so his performance was better than the bare result.

    Back on the turf, the return to eight furlongs is interesting as her dam won on good to firm over a mile, so this change in distance doesn’t put me off.

     

    2:40 Ascot ā€“ The Wizard Of Eye @ 7/1 with Bet365 (6 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    In the Victoria Cup, the trainer change from Stan Moore to Charlie Fellowes makes The Wizard Of Eye extremely interesting off a career-low mark of 99.

    Still with the same connections as before (minus former trainer Stan Moore), the five-year-old is a Group-level performer who struggled to land a blow last season.

    The Galileo Gold chestnut has had a gelding operation since his last run in September 2023 and he has a good record when fresh as his two best performances on RPRs came when returning from a break.

    He also ran in last seasonā€™s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and he was one of the last to come off the bridle, but Kieran Shoemark found himself in too much traffic, so ninth was the best he could secure.

    The conditions of a Victoria Cup (strong pace, good ground, straight seven furlongs) should play to his strengths and if Fellowes has got any improvement out of him, he has plenty of scope to do damage of a mark of 99.

     

    3:50 Haydock ā€“ Indian Run @ 13/2 with Boylesports ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Finally, in order not to make this an Ascot-exclusive betting column, Iā€™m chancing the three-year-old Indian Run in the Listed Spring Trophy Stakes at Haydock.

    Although a three-year-old hasnā€™t scored in this race over the last 10 years, Holguin nearly won last yearā€™s renewal and Happy Power ran a good race in 2019.

    Comparably, this yearā€™s rendition looks like a winnable race and Indian Run made a good impression at York last year when he won the Group 3 Acomb Stakes.

    He beat Ballymount Boy that day, form that looks good as he won a Listed race on his next start and he was second to Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.

    Furthermore, his debut run has worked out well as the winner, Starlust, finished third in the Group 1 Breedersā€™ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint behind Big Evs and the second, Array, subsequently won the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

    With a few in here wanting slightly softer conditions, heā€™ll like the quick ground and he gets 12lbs from his elders.

  • Four To Follow: Pearle Of A Day

    Four To Follow: Pearle Of A Day

    Plenty going on today, with Lingfield Derby Trials and some great handicaps up and down the country. The first big seven furlong handicap at Ascot takes place, plus the unique mixed card at Haydock too. Itā€™s a four to follow up and down the country.

     

    Lingfield

    Smile On My Face

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    2:25 ā€“ William Hill Oaks Trial (Listed) ā€“ Danielle @ 6/5 (William Hill)

    Itā€™s not often a star is born on the flat at Wetherby, but it looks like it with Danielle. A big 12 length win to break a maiden is nothing short of impressive. And being by Derby winner Cracksman, and with black type running through the family, this Lingfield Oaks Trial looks like it could give us a massive clue for Epsomā€™s big race on Friday.

     

    The Prairie Horse

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    3:00 ā€“ William Hill Derby Trial (Listed) ā€“ Illinois @ 5/2 (General)

    This looks a more competitive trial for the fourth Classic of the season. The top two in the market are by Derby winners, but Illinois has the black type to put him over the edge. The better ground might suit him a little better after hitting the frame in a Group One in France. Only Aidan Oā€™Brien has produced a Derby winner from this race in the last 10 years, but Illinois doesnā€™t look like Derby material on paper. But he looks a good winner of this contest.

     

    Ascot

    A Pearle Of A Bet

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    2:40 ā€“ Victoria Cup (Premier Handicap) ā€“ Pearle Dā€™Or @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    David Oā€™Meara might not have the best record in the race, but Pearle Dā€™Or looks brilliantly suited. He had two goes at C&D last year and was beaten by a neck and won by three-quarters of a length. Heā€™s up nine pounds in four runs, which is the sign of a nicely improving horse. But then looking at the weights, Pearle Dā€™or is near the bottom. Middle might not be the best draw, but a good break and track to the far side will give Pearle Dā€™or the best option of latching onto the pace.

    Ramazan hasnā€™t been outside the top two in four runs. And whilst 105 might be a bit too high, he has a five pound claimer on board. This brings him down to a similar mark when he was narrowly beaten in the Ayr Gold Cup. Richard Faheyā€™s stable is always one that doesnā€™t go off the boil and Northern raiders are always ones to watch at Ascot meetings. Nice each-way value 12/1 (General).

    Another Oā€™Meara horse that might give a good showing is Rhoscolyn. Heā€™s up a pound from last yearā€™s run, which isnā€™t in his favour. But heā€™ll appreciate the cut in the ground and can improve from a close fourth last time out. Small stakes at 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Haydock

    Singing Along

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    3:15 ā€“ Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier) ā€“ Lark In The Mornin @ 9/4 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    Despite being a little over 2/1, Lark In The Mornin possibly has the best value in the race. After winning the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, heā€™s been risen only eight pounds but is low in the weights for this race. And despite winning on heavy ground, he appreciates better ground, having been pulled twice before Cheltenham. Watch his price as he could go odds-on.

    Other nice prices, Mr Freedom will prefer the good ground and has represented some good form throughout the season. He was a long way behind Our Champ in the Sussex Champion Hurdle but finished well ahead of the third. For that, heā€™s been dropped a pound. Dropping in the weights for finishing second is something I can really get behind and expect a good performance at 16/1 (Betfred).

    Last yearā€™s winner Ngolo might not be to the level Lark In The Mornin is. But heā€™s back to the same winning mark he was in 2022. It should be similar ground as well, but he has only come back from a break of 475 days. Heā€™s also a similar price to his win in 2022 so it could be a case of dĆ©jĆ  vu. 25/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Day two at the Chester May Festival was a crossbar-hitting day as Witness Stand recovered EW money when second to Never So Brave but Brackenā€™s Laugh couldnā€™t reel in Capulet in the Dee Stakes.

    Still, the EW return from Witness Standsā€™ 18/1 price covered the outlay from the rest of the day by 0.5pts, so letā€™s roll into the final day of the Chester May Festival.

     

    1:30 Chester ā€“ Boardman @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) ā€“ 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest, Boardman is trying to win this race for the first time having finished fifth in the last two renewals.

    Although stall 10 does hinder his chances slightly, the last two renewals occurred on soft and good-to-soft ground, so todayā€™s better ground is a benefit to the eight-year-old by Kingman.

    Down to a mark of 94, he is three pounds below his last winning mark (which came over course and distance) and one pound below his last winning before then (which also came over course and distance).

    Furthermore, this is the time of year to catch him (seven from nine in the month of May) and heā€™s had a preparation run at Haydock on ground too soft for him to put in a solid effort.

    Jockey Phil Dennis guided him to his last success and he returns to the saddle, so he has a few things in his favour to put in a solid showing here.

     

    3:05 Chester ā€“ Mashhoor @ 10/1 with BetVictor ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Although Hamish is an absentee from the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, the contest is a wide-open betting heat and Mashhoor stands out to me at 10/1.

    Johnny Murtaghā€™s six-year-old by Kingman hasnā€™t had the easiest career to date as he was late onto the scene as a two-year-old and has only raced 15 times for his age, but he seems as good as ever.

    He won three races on the bounce last season, though the most notable win came in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh where he beat Al Riffa by nearly five lengths while giving five pounds away.

    Although that was Al Riffaā€™s first start of the season, the runner-up ran into Ace Impact ā€“ the subsequent Prix de lā€™Arc de Triomphe winner ā€“ in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume dā€™Ornano and then finished a close fourth on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Prix Ganay last month.

    After that, Mashhoor went to the Group 2 York Stakes and ran well to finish fifth of five, though only four lengths covered the field and both Alflaila and Royal Champion franked the form in Group/Grade 1 races subsequently.

    Although he finished sixth in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on his last start of the season, it was his first try at 1m4f and he did the donkey work from the front, so itā€™s easy to forgive him for that.

    With a run under his belt, Murtagh has probably brought him over to Chester for a reason and he holds an entry for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

    If he navigates stall eight well (heā€™s a natural front-runner, so he could well do this easily), he can outrun his odds.

     

    3:40 Chester ā€“ Too Friendly @ 12/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Spirit Mixer @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) ā€“ 1pt EW both

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    In the Chester Cup, two horses have caught my attention, the first of which is Too Friendly for James Owen.

    Although the majority of his last runs have occurred over obstacles, that doesnā€™t hinder his chances as Metier won this race last year and he had a similar profile.

    As for Too Friendly, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 having won snugly at Kempton two starts ago, though his form over jumps shows he is clearly a good horse.

    As a juvenile, he was fifth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle behind Brazil and Gaelic Warrior and this season he finished just under three lengths behind Rubaud in a Listed hurdle over two miles.

    Rubaud ran into both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth after that, so the form looks strong.

    His profile is an interesting one, though so is the profile of Spirit Mixer for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

    By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, he finished second to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate in 2022 off a mark of 97, so his rating of 94 (and Callum Hutchinsonā€™s three-pound claim) make him well-handicapped here.

    Heā€™s had a few issues during his career, but a return to better ground will help and one can imagine this had been a plan.

     

    4:50 Chester ā€“ Chillhi @ 3/1 with BetVictor ā€“ 2pt Win

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    In the penultimate race, Chillhi has plenty in his favour at a course he has previous form at.

    The four-year-old had a decent juvenile season in 2022 as he won snugly twice and then ran in the hot Ā£100,000 British EBF 2YO Series Final in October 2022.

    That race produced Streets Of Gold (rated 105), Legend Of Xanadu (rated 98), and Shouldvebeenaring (rated 112).

    As for his three-year-old season, his luck ran out, but most of his runs occurred in Class 3 and Class 2 contests, so todayā€™s Class 4 assignment will be a welcome drop in grade.

    The one time he did contest a Class 4 came over the same course and distance as today from stall six; he made up plenty of ground that day, so the task of stall one is welcomed.

    Finally, his current rating of 78 is eight pounds lower than that day and William Pyle takes off three pounds, making him well-handicapped.