Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Three Nationals on the bounce, from Ireland to Aintree and now Ayr. It’s all gearing up to be a fantastic seven days in the trainers’ championship, with Willie Mullins going all out to win the title after success in Liverpool. But now we’re in the seasonal period where the jumps criss-crosses with the flat, so we’re treated to two cracking cards today. Let’s see who makes the cut.

     

    Ayr

    Fortune In Our Favour

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    2:25 – Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade Two) – Favour And Fortune @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

    Favour And Fortune was last seen finishing sixth in the Supreme at Cheltenham, a race which was been boosted heavily thanks to a one-two from Mystical Power and Firefox at Aintree. Favour And Fortune also finished second in a Grade One at Aintree back on Boxing Day. However, he’ll like the ground and is weighted fairly, alongside the Pertemps winner L’Eau Du Sud. He’s got something’s in his favour in a hot contest.

    With it being a limited handicap, some at a bigger price may make appeal. Afadil is one. A consistent performer for Paul Nicholls, he easily won the Scottish County Hurdle in February. The he finished fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and was third last week at Aintree. He remains on the same mark and as a result, comes to Ayr in the lower order of the weights. Nice each-way play, 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

    Petit Tonnerre has been going chasing this season but didn’t work out for him and was hastily put over hurdles in the County, finishing one from the rear. For that performance, he’s been dropped four pounds, three pounds below his last winning hurdles mark. He was placed at this level last season and has every right to turn around a sharp drop. 20/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

     

    Git Making Us Rich

    3:35 – Scottish Grand National (Premier Handicap) – Git Maker @ 7/1 (General)

    Jamie Snowden has been actively prepping Git Maker for Ayr’s premier race. A stayer of some quality, he completed a hattrick of wins at the start of the season. He bounced back to form at the Festival when eight lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin, who impressed at Aintree, boosting the form. He also is unbeaten in Spring, with just two start in April and May, so will go well at this time year.

    My Silver Lining has been nothing short of impressive this season, never dropping outside the top three finish. Since his win at Warwick, he’s produced two gutsy performances on testing ground in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and in the Midlands Grand National. The Midlands National is often a precursor to this race and has only been raised two pounds. Ultra consistent, he shouldn’t be too far away from the frame. Each-way at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Ontheropes makes a little appeal for me. He hasn’t had a great time coming back from a long break, pulling up twice and finishing midfield last time out. However, he has dropped to a mark of 141 which was his last winning mark back in the 2021 Munster National. A lot has happened since then, but he is a proven stayer with a fourth in the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy (now Coral Gold Cup) to back it up. Ayr could be the track where we see him at his best. He might not look to have a chance, but never write off any Mullins horse. Long-shot at 50/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Call Up The Army

    2:40 – Greenham Stakes (Group Two) – Army Ethos @ 15/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being bred by sprinters; Army Ethos did look as though he could go a bit further when finishing second in the Coventry at Ascot. Trainer Archie Watson had big hopes, with the Prix Morny or Prix Robert-Papin in his sights. Sadly, we didn’t see him again until he finished a little weaker than most though up at Newcastle. But the Coventry form is looking brilliant now, with Haatem winning the Craven, who Army Ethos beat. Everything points to improvement with this horse.

     

    A Winning Ticket

    Spring Cup Handicap – Thunder Ball @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    A trend with Thunder Ball is that he seems to go well after his first run after a break. And that’s what today is. After a decent enough finish in the Lincoln, he looks to go a bit better on good-to-soft ground, which he likes. He stays at his mark of 101, with Alec Voikhansky taking off five pounds. He improved a lot last season and will make a nice handicapper throughout this season.

    Racingbreaks Ryder is another who goes well in the Spring with his only win of the season last year coming in May. He then never impressed in any other handicaps, but is now down to a likeable mark. He’s only one above last year’s winning mark, which makes him appealing at 18/1 (BetUK).

    Alpha Crucis is another that goes well at the start of the season. A winner at Windsor last April saw her book end it with a win at Goodwood in October. She had a good run in the Lincoln, finishing fourth which the handicapper has dropped her a pound for. He comes into this race at the very bottom of the weights, further enhanced with Anna Gibson taking a further seven pounds off. Every right to run well at 22/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Scottish Grand National Day | Time to Rally

    Aintree is now firmly in the rearview mirror, and as the 2023/24 National Hunt Season comes to a close, it’s time to take a look at the races on Scottish Grand National Day.

    Last week’s Aintree Grand National meeting was successful for the column as we achieved 11.95pts of profit, helping to bring the overall tally since the start of March to 3.35pts of profit.

    No doubt, the last few months haven’t reeled in a mountain of success, but let’s hope this run of form can continue.

     

    1:15 Ayr – Persian Time @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Sans Bruit did the job for us at Aintree and for that, we can only offer our thanks, but a 10lb hike for the success is steep as he beat horses who were towards the top of their handicap mark after getting an easy lead from the front.

    He demands respect, but Persian Time is a horse who might have a few pounds over the handicapper.

    The six-year-old has shown his class this season as he’s won twice and finished second once, though that defeat came at the hands of Djelo at Newbury on his first run of the season, and Djelo has since improved 12lbs and won a Grade 2.

    Although he benefitted from an Authorised Speed fall at Ascot, Homme Public (the runner-up) won a valuable race on his next start to frank the form

    Furthermore, both Djelo and Soul Icon – the horse he beat on his latest start at Kempton when the Nicky Henderson yard was massively out of form – have good form with Master Chewy, a horse who came a head away from beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree.

    That bodes well for Persian Time, and with his form at the track from last season’s second in a handicap hurdle, he is a nice unexposed type running off 136.

     

    1:50 Ayr – Deeper Blue @ 7/1 with William Hill & Maclaine @ 9/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW for both

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    The £50,000 CPMS Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase has an interesting feel about it this year as the favourite is as big as 13/2.

    However, I’m splitting my stakes here as I want both Deeper Blue and Maclaine on my side.

    Starting with the former, he represents the on-fire Harry Fry yard (40% strike rate over the last two weeks) and sports first-time cheekpieces, something Fry has a good record with.

    The eight-year-old has tended to race a bit behind the bridle this season – so the cheekpieces make sense – but his second to Henry’s Friend when receiving just 1lb looks like good form as the winner won the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase on his next start.

    Furthermore, Rock My Way was five lengths behind in third and he ran into Makin’yourmindup on his next start; Makin’yourmindup won after that and then ran into a well-handicapped Cap Du Nord.

    Deeper Blue was beaten by a well-handicapped Neon Moon on his last start, but he sprinted well clear of the third and he looks ready to put in another big effort here.

    However, a horse that carries eight pounds less is Maclaine, looking to back up from last month’s facile Newbury success.

    The improving seven-year-old prefers better ground, but he comes from a family of soft ground lovers, so the described soft ground at Ayr (plus a day of dry weather) should be okay.

    The manner of his victory at Newbury was impressive – one of a progressive horse – and he ran into Prairie Wolf at Doncaster in December.

    Prairie Wolf has since finished fourth to Ginny’s Destiny at Cheltenham and then won twice more, so the form of that race is solid.

     

    2:05 Newbury – Relief Rally @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The big question with Relief Rally in the Group 3 Fred Darling Stakes is whether will she stay seven furlongs, and that’s why her price is probably bigger than it should be.

    She was a small two-year-old and showed plenty of speed, but a lot went wrong for her at York on her first start at six furlongs and she had to battle late on to get up by a length.

    That showed promise of staying further to my eye, and you don’t have to go that far back through her pedigree to find horses who won over 1m1f and even went two-mile hurdling.

    I think this filly by Kodiac is riddled with ability, and although there is doubt over whether she has trained-on to become a proper three-year-old, this is a beatable field on all known pieces of form.

     

    4:10 Ayr – Masaccio @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Regular watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel will know my confidence behind Masaccio for the 2m4f handicap hurdle at Aintree. Still, as it turns out, it was probably a good idea to skip Aintree.

    Connections have swerved Aintree to come to Ayr instead, and they are happy to step him up in trip to three miles.

    After his Kempton success, with a wry smile, Alan King suggested during his post-race Racing TV interview that the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle over three miles was under consideration, but with an unchanged mark of 129 after that easy Kempton success, they’ve found a suitable handicap option with him on a potentially better surface than that of Aintree or Kempton.

    Welcom To Cartries is a highly-touted horse for Paul Nicholls, but his rating of 130 is one-pound higher than Masaccio’s.

    On all-known form, notably when finishing a close second to Jinko Blue (now rated 140) while giving 6lbs away at Newbury, Masaccio should have a higher rating than Welcom To Cartries, but he doesn’t.

    On that evidence, he looks like a solid bet at 7/2.

  • Grand National 2024: My First Five Home

    Grand National 2024: My First Five Home

    All this week has been building up for this moment. 34 horses, 30 fences, 10 minutes. The wildest, most exhilarating, most watched race in the world is back. The Grand National. Everyone will have their own picks, from the colour of the silks, to one with a good name, it’s a lottery. Here are my five picks for the National that I think will come home the strongest.

     

    Main Pick: I Am Maximus – 7/1

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    This is a horse that has very strong claims to win the race. And I’m fully taken with him. He’s an out and out stayer, proved with his win in the Irish National last year. He loves the heavy ground, proved with his emphatic win in the Bobbyjo Chase (Often used as a leg up for either Irish or Grand National). He has Grade One form, finishing in front of Paddy Rewards Club Chase winner next time out, Found A Fifty back in the Drinmore. Fianally, he finished behind Capodanno and Galopin Des Champs at Christmas, who both went on to win next time out. Yes, a horse has never won the National carrying 11st 6lbs, but records are here to be broken. Out of the front runners, I can’t look past I Am Maximus.

     

    Each-way choice: Mahler Mission – 14/1

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    Once again, this horse has been targeted at this race. Way back at the start of December after his brilliant run in the Coral Gold Cup. The one thing that Mahler Mission likes to do is run well fresh, 32232. It’s missing some 1’s, but he’s never far from hitting the frame. He faced a tough opponent in Datsalrightgino last time out, but was six-and-a-half lengths clear of Monbeg Genius in third. His National Hunt Chase run at 2023 Festival showed how well he can stay, barring his fall at the second-last. The eventual winner Gaillard Du Mesnil finished a gallant third and could end up repeating the feat, if not go better.

     

    Mud-lover: Galia Des Liteaux – 28/1

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    Barring her last run, Galia Des Liteaux has had a great season. Her second in the Classic Chase was fantastic, when she was clear by 12 lengths to eventual third Guetapan Collonges. The winner My Silver Lining has finished second and third since, respectively. Plus Beauport, who was pulled up that day, went and won the Midlands National backed the form up slightly. She’s a lover for heavy ground, with two out of three wins on the surface. She has to defy history if to win the National. The last mare to do it was Nickel Coin back in 1951.

     

    Surprise Package: Roi Mage – 50/1

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    Despite such a big price this year, Roi Mage ran well in last year’s renewal, finishing a respectable seventh. He then went and won the big Cross-Country race at Compiegne, guided round by today’s jockey James Reveley. Reveley has already had a big winner in the UK this year, when the Englishman riding in France won with Il Est Francais at Kempton on Boxing Day. Having rode, and won, Roi Mage, this being his sole ride of the day and being brought out from France, there’s a feeling that Reveley might know something about Roi Mage that we don’t.

     

    A Grand National Outsider: Farouk D’Alene – 100/1

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    Farouk D’Alene was one of the best novices coming into the 2022 Brown Advisory. And he could have won it, had it not been for a fall at the second last. He then wasn’t seen for about 18 months until he reappeared in the Troytown last November, when falling at the first. Then he had one last go over fences at Thurles when finishing fifth, but finishing in front of Capodanno. He was close to winning a Pertemps qualifier over Christmas, but pulled up at Cheltenham. His handicap mark over fences is 153, but he’ll need to improve his jumping over the bigger obstacles for this marathon trip.

     

    Whoever you are on this Grand National the very best of luck!

    Why not check out my selections for the other races on Day Three! Click the link here

    All prices are with William Hill – Official Betting Partner of the Grand National.

  • Grand National Festival 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Grand National Festival 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Only four winners yielded from the last two days of the Festival, but with one more day to go I feel as though we can find a winner or two with plenty of value to end on a high. Plus, the nation stops at 4:00 for the big one. The Grand National, for which I’ve written dedicated tips just for the race, check it out by clicking here. This article is for the rest of the action.

     

    NAP: Maghull Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Found A Fifty @ 15/8 (General)

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    Found A Fifty has found it tough since Christmas. A narrow defeat to Il Etait Temps, who won on Thursday, and well beaten by Gaelic Warrior in the Arkle. His second was dominant, beating Il Etait Temps by four and three quarters of a length. Without Gaelic Warrior, he’s the one to beat and Aintree may be a course that suits him slightly better.

    Djelo made it a British 1-2-3 in the Turners’ at Cheltenham, getting the better of Zanhiyr up the run-in. He was eight lengths down to the winning pair, which makes the drop back to two miles make sense. Venetia Williams isn’t in the best of form, but Djelo is never far from hitting the frame. Each-way claims at 14/1 (William Hill).

     

    E/W Bet: Liverpool Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Strong Leader @ 7/1 (General)

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    It was worth a second look, but I forgot that Strong Leader ran a good race in the Cleeve Hurdle. The form isn’t strong, but Strong Leader looked as though he had a future ahead of him. He finished second in the Top Novices’ Hurdle last year splitting Inthepocket and Lucccia and clearly has a liking for Aintree. He won as a novice last season here, then finished second in a Grade One. Horses for courses as they say.

     

    Handicap Best: William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier) – The King Of Ryhope @ 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

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    The King Of Ryhope has been in my tracker all season and something says he’s been building up to a handicap like this. He missed Cheltenham and on the evidence of his Ascot run, he’ll get the trip. Had he not hit the last, he could have finished a lot closer than three lengths. He looks well-handicapped as a Dan Skelton horse should when in races like these. If he stays the trip, he could feature in a future National?

    Falco Blitz also took the eye for the Irish. His last two runs have been won by a combined 13 and a half lengths, in handicaps. He’s been raised 11lbs for this major test, but he’s no stranger to the big stage after being with Nicky Henderson until 2022. He’s well worth a watch, and the ground won’t be a problem. 18/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    13:20 – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Johnnywho @ 8/1 (General), Lord Snootie e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Johnson’s Blue e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    13:55 – Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Brighterdaysahead @ 5/4 (Boylesports)

    14:30 – William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier) – THE KING OF RYHOPE (HB) @ 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports), Falco Blitz e/w @ 18/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    15:05 – Liverpool Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Flooring Porter @ 7/2 (General), STRONG LEADER E/W @ 7/1 (General)

    16:00 – THE GRAND NATIONAL

    17:00 – Maghull Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – FOUND A FIFTY (NAP) @ 15/8 (General), Djelo e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    17:35 – Weatherbys Standard NHF (Grade Two) – Ma Shantou @ 15/2 (William Hill), Good And Clever e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Horaces Pearl e/w @ 16/1 (General)

     

    The very best of luck!

  • Grand National Festival 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    Grand National Festival 2024 | Day One: Selections and Naps

    After the major success of the Cheltenham Festival, the Spring Festivals offer more opportunity to add to the balance. Today it’s all about the Grade One’s and some mouth-watering clashes between some of the stars of Cheltenham.

    NAP: William Hill Aintree Bowl (GRADE ONE) – Shishkin @ 11/4 (General)

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    Shishkin fell victim to the Nicky Henderson curse at the Cheltenham Festival but seems to be one of those that has bounced back quickly. And this race would’ve been in the pipeline after the Gold Cup. And this race has fell right into his lap. He won last year’s contest with, arguably, a weak field. Now the field seems stronger, but Shishkin still has the ability to win another. He’ll go well on what will be extreme ground this weekend.

    Corbetts Cross also has the ability to chuck himself right into it too. A dominant display in the Brown Advisory sees him step up into the big time. Winning on heavy ground in Cheltenham by a wide margin showcased that he can easily match those who have vastly more experience than him. 7/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    E/W BET: Manifesto Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Colonel Harry @ 28/1 (General)

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    Only two horses in the field act well on heavy ground. Grey Dawning and Colonel Harry who both ran in the Turners’ at the Festival. Granted that the latter may be out of his depth in a Grade One. But with the heavy ground, anything can happen. He was second in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown on heavy ground, then backed it up with a win, in similar conditions, in the Grade Two Towton at Wetherby. There also hasn’t been a winning favourite of this race since 2013, so might not be as open and shut as you would think.

     

    Handicap Best: Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier) – Sans Bruit @ 7/1 (BetVictor, BetUK)

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    This isn’t the best handicap by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the only handicap of the day. Saint Roi looks to be the favourite but there are others that make a little more appeal, particularly with the ground. One of them is Sans Bruit who is being quickly turned out after finishing second at Chepstow 10 days ago. He’s a winner on heavy in France and hasn’t set the world alight since transferring to Paul Nicholls. However, with a low weight on his back and generally unexposed at this level, he may be worth a chance.

    Irish Blaze is another that could be worth a chance. The English handicapper has been a bit harsh on a horse who reignited his chasing campaign back in December. It’s a little odd that trainer Cian Collins has waited since finishing third in a novice chase to Mister Policeman. Has this race been what he’s been working towards? Each-way claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

    13:45 – Manifesto Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Grey Dawning @ Evs (William Hill, Unibet), COLONEL HARRY E/W @ 28/1 (General)

    14:20 – Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Sir Gino @ 10/11 (General), Kalif Du Berlais e/w @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    14:55 – William Hill Aintree Bowl (GRADE ONE) – SHISHKIN (NAP) @ 11/4 (General), Corbetts Cross e/w @ 7/2 (William Hill, BetUK)

    15:30 – William Hill Aintree Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Bob Olinger @ 15/8 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    16:05 – Hunter’s Chase – Bennys King @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred), Annamix e/w @ 6/1 (General), Matts Commission e/w @ 100/1 (General)

    16:40 – Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier) – SANS BRUIT (HB) @ 7/1 (BetVictor, BetUK), Irish Blaze e/w @ 16/1 (General)

    17:15 – Goffs Nickel Coin Mares’ NHF (Grade Two) – Honky Tonk Highway @ 4/1 (General)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four to Follow: Irish National special

    Four to Follow: Irish National special

    Racing has been hooked on the actions happening at Fairyhouse this weekend, and it all comes to a climax when Easter Monday signals the return of the Irish Grand National. Legends like Fortria, Arkle, Desert Orchid and Bobbyjo have graced the winner’s enclosure of Ireland’s National race. Who will add their name to the roster today?

     

    Spring Chickens

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    2:40 – O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey Juvenile Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ndaawi @ 2/1 (General)

    It’s not a race that throws up the next big thing in the juvenile division, but it’s a competitive race, nonetheless. Bottler’secret has only had the one run, with the form untested, which leads me to go down the more experienced route.

    Usually, good performing losers of the Boodles at Cheltenham arrive here and Ndaawi is certainly one. He finished a good third to Lark In The Mornin and wasn’t disgraced finishing within three lengths of the winner whilst carrying the second-top weight. Now back on levels Ndaawi can show his class and make a possible claim for the juvenile race at Punchestown at the end of the month.

     

    Devil’s In The Detail

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    3:50 – Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Hurdle (Grade Two) – Thedevilscoachman @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    With the ground heavy, I can’t be having Zarak The Brave. He was underwhelming in the Champion Hurdle on heavy ground and has rarely acted on it. Meanwhile, Thedevilscoachman has been chasing, but has recently switched back to hurdling. He didn’t seem to handle the trip over three miles so stepping back to two-and-a-half will suit him better. Plus, his run behind Sir Gerhard was backed up yesterday and can see him back to winning ways.

     

    Call The Priest

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    4:20 – McInerney Properties Fairyhouse Chase (Grade Two) – Saint Sam @ Evs (General)

    Back from an elongated break, Saint Sam pulled off an incredible win over fences, thrashing Riviere D’Etel by eight-and-a-half lengths. Looking at the field he’s up against today, I can envisage a similar dominant performance. Appreciate It missed the Festival and has never looked himself over fences. Fil Dor was extremely poor when stepped up in trip in the Ryanair and Journey With Me was disappointing on seasonal reappearance.

     

    The Irish Grand National

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    5:00 – Boylesports Irish Grand National (Grade Three) – Where It All Began @ 10/1 (General)

    Where It All Began has been on my books since his win in the trial in February. His run in the Kim Muir may have seemed disappointing, but he was bumped at the second last and the 26 lengths is a bit of an exaggeration. His preference for heavy ground will help him massively and he looks well treated staying on the same mark as he was in the Kim Muir. This race looks to have been the plan for him all season.

    Yeah Man has had a stellar season over in the UK. He beat My Silver Lining up at Haydock in the Grand National Trial on heavy ground but seems to be versatile as he was down three-quarters of a length to Vicctorino at Ascot on good ground. A seven-pound rise in the weights may seem steep, but he looks to be improving with every race. Solid shout at 9/1 (General).

    Novices have a good record in recent years and Senior Chief has been on the improve over the bigger obstacles. He beat Duffle Coat by three-quarters of a length breaking his maiden last time out. But the form from his run in November has worked out a treat. Gaelic Warrior has won the Arkle and Inothewayurthinkin bolted up in the Kim Muir. With form like that he’s a great chance of finishing in the frame. 11/1 (BetUK).

    Street Value has disappointed in recent runs, pulling up twice. However, he won the Porterstown over C&D back in December and as a result he’s only five pounds higher than that run. He’s a good record on heavy ground, despite his last two runs, and the Irish National has a tendency to throw up some big priced winners. Worth a shout at 33/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four to Follow: Dubai calling

    Four to Follow: Dubai calling

    As we await the start of the Turf season back in the UK, the legendary Dubai World Cup meeting is back. Plenty of challengers from all over the world come to Meydan to claim the historic prizes on offer. Here we look at the big turf races and the main event itself.

     

    No Frost In Dubai

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    1:15 – Al Quoz Sprint (Group One) – Frost At Dawn @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    This is possibly the hardest race to predict of the meeting. The key factor is winning at Meydan, whatever the level, and Frost At Dawn matches the description.

    Trained by William Knight, Frost At Dawn has spent the winter in Dubai performing very well winning one and placing in a couple more. He was a dominant winner last time out by two-and-a-half lengths and puts the three-year-old in a good position. as three-year-olds don’t have a great record in the race. But he’s far better value than the current favourite Star Of Mystery.

     

    Luck For Luxembourg

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    3:10 – Dubai Turf (Group One) – Luxembourg @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Despite not winning a race since last May, Luxembourg has never been disgraced in defeat. His last three runs have him beaten only by two-and-a-quarter lengths and has been extremely unlucky. On paper, it looks like a very winnable race for a horse who has been unlucky in the past few races.

    Voyage Bubble ran a cracker of race in Hong Kong against Romantic Warrior, only beaten by neck on the line. He won the Stewards’ Cup at Sha Tin over a mile earlier in the season and the extra furlong won’t be a problem. He has handled step up to a mile-and-a-quarter very well in previous runs. Should not be discounted at 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    Making A Splash

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    3:35 – Dubai Sheema Classic (Group One) – Liberty Island @ 5/2 (General)

    Everyone will be latching onto the Auguste Rodin factor, which I understand. He was Europe’s top three-year-old and finished with a flourish in the Breeders’ Cup. But chiefly, he’s now a four-year-old and the challenges will be a little tougher.

    Particularly when up against Japan’s top three-year-old from last year who is Liberty Island. Her only blemish last season was finishing runner-up behind the extremely talented Equinox. But a run of four Group One’s, all won in dominant fashion, but Japan’s challenge at number one.

    But if there’s been one horse that has surprised everyone it’s Spirit Dancer. Arguably a shock winner of the Bahrain International Trophy, he went on to win almost £1million in Saudi Arabia for a Group Two. Sandwiched in between was a fourth at Meydan, but at the top level this horse can spring another surprise and round off Sir Alex Ferguson’s Winter of major content. 20/1 (William Hill).

     

    Far East in the Middle East

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    4:35 – Dubai World Cup (Group One) – Ushba Tesoro @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Ushba Tesoro won this race last year in dominant fashion. He couldn’t follow up in the Breeders’ Cup, but has since won at Listed level back in Japan and was only beaten by a head in the Saudi Cup by Senor Buscador. With the extra furlong in his favour over the American, Ushba Tesoro can follow up and write his name in the history books.

    For what happened in the Saudi Cup, Senor Buscador is overpriced and he can’t be faulted on his recent form. Coming back from disappointment in the Breeders’ Cup he finished second in a handicap at Aqueduct, beaten a neck by National Treasure at Gulfstream and just fended off Usbha Tesoro to win the Saudi Cup. Clearly possesses a lot of talent and his price of 9/1 (BetVictor) should be taken advantage of.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    The curtain-raiser of the flat season is back. The Lincoln handicap signals the closing of the National Hunt season as we begin the transition to the speed and ferocity of the flat. Newbury offers the big jumps card of the day as we mix between the two genres in the Spring.

     

    Doncaster

    Shining Armour

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    1:20 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) – Knight @ 3/1 (Unibet)

    It was a disappointing season from Knight last season. He promised a lot as a two-year-old, but never hit the ground running in five group races. He was narrowly beaten at Sandown by Chindit, on soft ground which shows he’ll prefer today’s going. With Charyn wanting better ground, Knight can kick start the flat season with his first win since 2022.

    Astral Beau won this race last year, when rated 86 amongst horses rated 100+. Her victory was mainly based on the heavy going, and with heavy in places in the description she’ll relish the test once again this year. 7/2 (General).

    Dashing Roger can also take advantage of the testing ground. He won two races at the back-end of last season on heavy ground, including a handicap by five-and-a-half lengths. Rossa Ryan is an interesting booking, with plenty of placings in recent days. 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Barra-full of Cash

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    3:00 – William Hill Cammidge Trophy (Listed) – Baradar @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Baradar is stepping into level weights for the first time since 2022, when racing in Ireland. He came third in last year’s Lincoln. He managed to win two class two handicaps last season and will not mind the testing conditions. Listed races can sometimes be tricky to negotiate, but this looks like a nice race for Baradar to dominate.

     

    First Big Flat Handicap

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    3:35 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) – Lattam @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    A word on the favourites; The Irish haven’t won this race in 40 years, and it doesn’t look like it will be broken with the Irish Lincoln winner carrying an extra five pounds. Liberty Lane looks a little too high in the weights. Despite being drawn on the far side, he’s on the far rail and only a couple of horses have won from that position.

    I like the look of Lattam, running for the first time under Julie Camacho. He’s a winner of the Irish Lincoln and usually performs well first time out in the season. He hasn’t moved off his mark of 95 but will like the ground and performs well at this time in the season.

    Last year’s winner Migration should go well again. He’s four pounds higher in the weights, but he always is on his A game at the start of the season. David Menusier hasn’t been running many horses during the winter, but given he has a 50% strike rate from running two horses, he is a target trainer and will have prepped Migration for this race again. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Spirit Genie is a live outsider for the race. He performed well at the back-end of last season with a win and a narrow second on similar ground which won’t be a problem. His mark of 86 sees him sneak into to the race, rather than dropping into the Spring Mile. It might be his first time at this level, but Jennie Candlish has managed to win two races from her last five runners at a 40% strike rate. 16/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Something’s In The Room…

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    3:15 – British EBF BetVictor “National Hunt” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – El Elefante @ 11/2 (BetVictor)

    It took four attempts, but El Elefante finally got her elusive win at Ayr, the Friday before the Festival. The form was well franked after her run in the Rossington Main behind Jeriko Du Reponet. But as he disappointed at the Festival, the second and third didn’t. She remains on the same winning mark as before and despite a high weight she has plenty of talent.

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Gold Cup Day: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Gold Cup Day: Selections and Naps

    Three Days. 20 Races. 11 Winners. We have been on fire this week. A successful Cheltenham Festival deserves to end on a high, with the 100th Cheltenham Gold Cup in our sights. Plus, some tricky contests both pre and post-race. For the final time this Cheltenham, here’s who I am picking today.

     

    NAP: Mares Chase (Grade Two) – Dinoblue @ 11/8 (Unibet)

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    It’s safe to say that the best two-miler chaser this season, bar the obvious, has been Dinoblue. Ever since her second in last year’s Grand Annual, she’s been ultra-consistent. She picked up two valuable handicaps at both Leopardstown and Punchestown, then was thrown into open company this season.

    She paid back Willie Mullins’ confidence in her when she won Barberstown Castle Chase, then routing the field in the Paddy Rewards Club Chase over Christmas.

    Dinoblue may have finished second to El Fabiolo at the Dublin Racing Festival, but she was six lengths in front of the Champion Chaser 2024, Captain Guinness. She faces a step up in trip, but she should answer the doubters much like Lossiemouth on Tuesday.

     

    E/W BET: 100TH Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (GRADE ONE) – Bravemansgame @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

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    It’s a bit insulting last year’s Gold Cup second at this price. He hadn’t been his fluent self over fences early on this season but showed a better display and a fantastic rally to just edge second ahead of Allaho. We saw the true Bravemansgame that day and Paul Nicholls still believes this horse has it in him to win the Blue Riband race. He won’t mind the soft ground, but 16/1 is odds-on you should never associate with a Grade One winner, and last year’s second.

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    I also fancy a couple of small each-way stakes on both Gentlemansgame and Monkfish. Gentlemansgame beat Bravemansgame at Wetherby and hasn’t been seen since. Trainer Mouse Morris has said he’s been quite hard to train, but this race would’ve been the target for the season. 22/1 (BetVictor, BetUK).

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    Monkfish, anyone remember him? Originally thought he would be going to the Stayers’ Hurdle, Rich Ricci and co suddenly remembered he can jump a fence. He was one of the shortest-priced winners of the 2021 Festival, winning the Brown Advisory at 1/4. His odds were slashed for the Gold Cup the year after, but sadly he picked up an injury that rules him out until the end of last season. This horse has been destined to win a Gold Cup and could produce the comeback of all comebacks at 33/1 (William Hill).

    Having said all of that, Galopin Des Champs wins his second Gold Cup at a canter. 11/10 (William Hill).

     

    Handicap Best: County Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – L’Eau Du Sud @ 4/1 (General)

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    The king of the Cheltenham plot jobs made it two handicap wins with 25/1 outsider Monmiral winning the Pertemps. L’Eau Du Sud runs in the same colours and ran a blinder in the Betfair Hurdle last time out. He was six lengths of the next placed horse and goes up six pounds. A fair rise, but still puts him in great position on the weights. The British are also 5-2 up in the handicap races, which shows you how well they’ve been treated this week.

    King Of Kingsfield comes into the race on a super boost. On his last start he finished behind the Supreme winner Slade Steel and the Gallagher winner Ballyburn. Some form line to come into handicapping for the first time. He’s on the same mark as last time out, which shows that he’ll have to prove he’s just as good as the other two today. He’s got a great chance at 11/2 (Unibet).

    A big-priced shot could be Mr Freedom. Reading Sheena West’s comments, she is extremely bullish about his chances and the form backs it up. He’s finished in the top three of every race he’s completed since June 2023. Some record. Even with a five-pound penalty, he still looks well-treated and will not mind that ground. Small each-way stakes at 40/1 (General).

     

    Selections:

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    13:30 – Triumph Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Majborough @ 7/2 (Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports), Kargese e/w @ 6/1 (Boylesports), Salver e/w @ 10/1 (General)

    14:10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – L’EAU DU SUD (HB) @ 4/1 (General), King Of Kingsfield e/w @ 11/2 (Unibet), Mr Freedom e/w @ 40/1 (General)

    14:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Dancing City @ 8/1 (Unibet, Betfred, Boylesports), Chigorin e/w @ 11/1 (General)

    15:30 – 100TH CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP (GRADE ONE) – GALOPIN DES CHAMPS @ 11/10 (William Hill), BRAVEMANSGAME E/W @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Gentlemansgame e/w @ 22/1 (BetVictor, BetUK), Monkfish e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)

    16:10 – Hunter’s Chase – Premier Magic @ 6/1 (General), Billaway e/w @ 9/1 (Unibet), D’Jango e/w @ 66/1 (Unibet)

    16:50 – Mares Chase (Grade Two) – DINOBLUE (NAP) @ 11/8 (Unibet), Allegorie De Vassy (R/F)

    17:30 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle – Quai De Bourbon @ 7/2 (William Hill), Better Days Ahead e/w @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports), Yeats Star e/w @ 18/1 (Unibet)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Cheltenham 2024 | Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Bookies blew a huge sigh of relief as El Fabiolo pulled up in the Champion Chase, ruining some punters multiples. But this page still managed to tip up four more winners and a place in the five remaining races. This puts us in profit for the week so far and we aim to do it again today for Cheltenham Day Three.

     

    NAP: Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brighterdaysahead @ 6/4 (William Hill, BetUK)

    Despite being a new race, this year’s renewal looks a hot contest. But Brighterdaysahead is held in the highest regard in the Elliott stable. She adores this type of ground and two double-figure winning distances show that she’s full of talent. Cheltenham has been on the agenda since her first run over hurdles.

    Don’t disregard Jade De Grugy, however. She won a hot looking Grade Three in Ireland by six-and-a-half lengths. However, no horse from that race has backed the form up which calls into question how weak this division is. The same can be said for Brighterdaysahead, but her victories have been more impressive.

    Majestic Force has a good each-way chance in the race after winning over further and beating the boys in a maiden hurdle on testing ground. Henry de Bromhead has managed to find a winner in the first two days and can end up with another at a big price. 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    E/W BET: Turners Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Iroko @ 13/2 (General)

    I have a bit of affection for Iroko. He’s the flagbearer for Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero and has come on leaps and bounds to be here. After impressing at Warwick in November, he picked up an injury that seemingly rules him out for the season. Now the trainers have have back to 100%, he has the ability to try and notch up his second win in as many Festivals. Despite one run over fences, he jumped well at Warwick and has a big engine too.

    Grey Dawning should get the better of Ginny’s Destiny here, despite the latter being a three-time course winner. Grey Dawning hit the second last when these two both met at Cheltenham in November. If it wasn’t for that mistake he may have won the race. His jumping has since improved and has potential to go much further. 9/4 (General).

     

    Handicap Best: Trustatrader Plate Chase (Premier) – Crebilly @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK)

    I seriously think that Crebilly has plenty of ability about him and has been campaigned with this race in mind. His win on heavy ground was tough but proves he’s got an engine. The form might not have been backed up, and it may have been against two opponents, but the handicapper has only risen him a pound. He’s made a few mistakes at Cheltenham in the past, but that seemed to be solved at Exeter.

    Saint Felicien enjoyed his first success over fences last time out beating Aime Desjy. He’s improved with each run, reducing the gap between first and second each time before going on to win. On form he seems to handle the heavy conditions. Whilst Elliott hasn’t won a handicap yet, all his horses are campaigned with these sorts of races in mind. 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Selections:

    13:30 – Turners Novices’ Chase (GRADE ONE) – Grey Dawning @ 9/4 (General), IROKO (E/W) @ 13/2 (General)

    14:10 – Pertemps Final (Premier) – Cuthbert Dibble e/w @ 9/1 (Boylesports, BetUK), Gabbys Cross e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred), Springwell Bay e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    14:50 – Ryanair Chase (GRADE ONE) – Stage Star @ 5/1 (General), Ga Law e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    15:30 – Stayers’ Hurdle (GRADE ONE) – Teahupoo @ 7/4 (General), Noble Yeats e/w @ 13/2 (General), Paisley Park e/w @ 12/1 (General)

    16:10 – Trustatrader Plate H’cap Chase (Premier) – CREBILLY (HB) @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK), Saint Felicien @ 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

    16:50 – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD (NAP) @ 6/4 (William Hill, BetUK), Majestic Force e/w @ 28/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    17:30 – Kim Muir Challenge Cup – Angels Dawn @ 10/1 (William Hill), Where It All Began @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!