Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    A tricky day, with selections hitting the bar. But Point Lonsdale managed to salvage something from the day. Today, it’s Chester’s big day with the Chester Cup taking centre stage. Some names may be familiar from the jumps who make their way over for one of the longest races of the flat season. Plus a good undercard to make a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Dreaming Of Wins

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Of Grosvenor Handicap – Liamarty Dreams @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Liamarty Dreams is looking to make it a hat-trick in this race. He won at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, then at Musselburgh after been raised four pounds. It’s the same amount today and looks to be on the big improve this season. Stall two over the seven-and-a-half furlongs makes him all the more appealing for a yard in decent form.

    Revich won this race last year and has a great record on the Roodee. Four wins at the track makes him one of the specialists in the field. He’s back to a mark of 95, a winning mark up at Ayr last season. Plus, a middle draw isn’t the worst thing in the world and can bounce back to form after two lacklustre season openers. 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Island Native is a debutant at Chester, but he should be able to handle the tight turns with wins on the all-weather, including Lingfield. He showed a good performance on turf at Brighton last time out. But he’s climbing up three classes for this race, which is a nagging doubt. But the king of Chester, Franny Norton, will be able to guide him round his favourite track. Worth something at 12/1 (General).

     

    May Flowers

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    2:35 – Free Bet Friday Handicap – Botanical @ 7/2 (William Hill)

    Already the form for Botanical has been given an almighty boost. Mr Porfessor went and won the Lincoln this year, but was beat by Botanical by six lengths on his last start of the season. Given that Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian are a red hot classic winning combination, it would make sense to go with what seems to be the second Al Maktoum runner in the race.

     

    It’s Rar Rar

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    3:05 – Huxley Stakes (Group Two) – Israr @ 11/4 (General)

    You can’t argue when you have good ground and the highest rated horse in a race. Israr ticks all the boxes, and comes off the back of a close third at Sandown last time out. He beat former Derby winner Adayar last year at this level at the Newmarket July Festival and has had a decent winter over in the Middle East as well. At the price, it makes sense.

     

    A Ztuck Cup

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    3:40 – Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Zoffee @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    After one appearance in the Chester Cup, Zoffee seemed to be at home with the Roodee. He didn’t act for the rest of the season and comes back here three pounds lower than last season. At a track he seems to like and on a lower mark, plus a tendency to act at this time out the year, Zoffee is my main pick for the Chester Cup.

    Another course specialist who should handle the Cup well is Solent Gateway. He’s raced a few times and only won once, but experience counts round here. He last raced in the Cup off a mark of 90 and is two pounds higher today. Saffie Osborne is in the saddle which is always a big plus, given that she’s operating at a 22% strike rate. An added bonus of being a pound well in the handicap makes 14/1 (General) quite attractive.

    Too Friendly has a shot at a big price. Trainer James Owen says that the track should suit him and acts more in the Summer than he does in the Winter over jumps. He won on the all-weather in March and is only up four pounds for the run, which sees him at one of the lower weights in the field. Small stakes at 20/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Yesterday, there wasn’t much point to get stuck into, in terms of both quality and value, but we saw some terrific finishes. Today is much more competitive with some nice-looking handicaps, as well as a tricky Ormonde Stakes as the feature.

     

    Fire In The Belly

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Handicap – Roman Dragon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    A quick race to get us started with, and, as ever, draw is key. But course specialists are also a key factor, and Roman Dragon knows the Roodee better than any horse in the field. He’s raced round the round track 15 times, winning five times. He’s won from multiple positions, including outside stalls, but he’s in stall one today. Also, recent form in Bahrain has seen his mark gone up four pounds, but he’s an improver for the local Hugo Palmer yard.

    In the last ten years, this race has been won out of only three stalls; 1, 3, 4. Clearpoint fills stall number four, and looks nicely handicapped. He was dropped a pound for finishing fourth at Epsom last time out, which puts him on the same mark for a close third at Lingfield. The three pounds that William Craver takes off also brings him down to a recent winning mark. Nice each-way value at 8/1 (Betfred).

    Michaela’s Boy looks to put right so many wrongs. He hasn’t won since December 2022, and came close at the Curragh last Summer. He’s been dropped a massive four pounds from his last start at Musselburgh and his new weight makes him look appealing in the market. 12/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Rash To Judgement

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    2:05 – British Stallion Studs Maiden Stakes – Rashabar @ 3/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    This horse’s form is gold dust. Rashbar finished third at Newbury, but ahead of him the second won next time out at Bath. He also beat a winner at Salisbury and a neck second at Newmarket. With three winners in the field, it should only be a matter of time before he goes odds-on. Despite drawn wide, this is about the talent of the two-year-olds, so draw isn’t as important as it is in handicaps.

     

    When God Closes a Door…

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    3:05 – Dee Stakes (Listed) – God’s Window @ 9/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    The Dee Stakes is the lesser-known Derby trial. It hasn’t produced a Derby winner recently, but nearly did with Cliffs Of Moher in 2017. It did produce multiple Grade One winning hurdler Not So Sleepy, so it’s got some depth.

    God’s Window is the highest rated horse out of the lot and was an eight-and-a-half length winner at Nottingham on reappearance. Jayarebe has his form boosted by both Whip Cracker and Caviar Heights. But God’s Window has entries in three big Group One’s, including the Derby and the Eclipse. This is the litmus test for his season.

     

    Lonsdale Has A Point

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    3:40 – Ormonde Stakes (Group Three) – Point Lonsdale @ 9/4 (Boylesports)

    Point Lonsdale is often looked over as a forgotten horse, but he can act when he is brought to his level. He didn’t win at all over the Winter, which blots his copybook. But a big tick in his book is that he won the Huxley Stakes last year, so he knows the course. Combined with the fact he is the highest-rated horse in the field, and Arrest was deeply disappointing on reappearance, the door might just be shown for Point Lonsdale.

  • Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Chester May Festival Day 2 | Dreaming of success

    Action on the Roodee kicked off yesterday, though day 1 at the Chester May Festival ended with sadness after the awful incident involving Hidden Law after the line in the Chester Vase.

    For many, as the Dubawi three-year-old kicked clear from Aidan O’Brien’s Agenda, we looked at his performance and gave him plenty of credit for the effort.

    After all, he was very good at Newbury, it was just whether he could step up to a better grade and transform his form.

    Well, he did, so it was incredibly sad what happened to him moments after the line, and all we can do is give our best wishes to those closely connected to the horse.

    Just a quick line on yesterday’s results from the column; Al Shabab Storm returned place money at 7/1 (though he was unlucky not to win) and Cadogan Place finished fifth of sixth in the Chester Vase.

     

    2:35 Chester – Witness Stand @ 18/1 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Kicking off the action in the third race of the day, Witness Stand can outrun his odds back at a course he knows well.

    The three-year-old by Expert Eye won a maiden on debut at the course from stall six of seven before he went straight into Group 2 company for the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

    He did the donkey work that day, but still ran with credit to finish sixth in a race won by Haatem (subsequently 3rd in the 2000 Guineas). Iberian, Mountain Bear, and Son also franked the form subsequently.

    Having finished third on heavy ground behind Orne at Newmarket to finish the season, he blew off the cobwebs at Kempton when fifth to Notable Speech (subsequent 2000 Guineas winner) at the start of last month, something that will put him spot on for this.

    Going from Group and top-class company to a Class 2 0-105 will benefit Witness Stand, so he has a good chance to put in a display here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Bracken’s Laugh @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Something about the performance of Bracken’s Laugh at Chelmsford in April caught my eye, and I’m hoping he continues that progress here at Chester.

    The three-year-old by Zoffany has a strong pedigree behind him as he is from the family of Getaway and Guadalupe, a Group 1-winning mare.

    As for his Chelmsford success, although Capulet probably needed the run and could outrun his odds on Thursday, he beat a race-fit Orne who was sporting first-time cheekpieces.

    The top three in the market deserve plenty of respect, but Bracken’s Laugh gets the nod as his class has the ability to prevail.

     

    4:10 Chester – Dream Harder @ 8/1 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The form of the Ian Williams stable is moderate at the moment (13% strike rate over the last two weeks) which offers extra confidence behind Dream Harder’s chances in the penultimate race.

    The five-year-old by Muhaarar is highly tried but he also knows how to win having found the winners’ enclosure five times in his last 16 runs since switching to Williams from Jamie Osborne.

    One of those successes came at Chester off a mark of 85, just three pounds below his current rating, and his win that day looked easy at the line.

    Since then, he finished fourth in a Windsor Racing League handicap, a race won by Spirit Dancer, who subsequently won the Bahrain International Trophy and Neom Turf Cup.

    Furthermore, Tiffany (now rated 15lbs higher having won a Listed race in Hanover) and Tregony (a subsequent Listed winner now rated 15lbs higher) filled out the two places ahead of him, and Dream Harder had a troubled passage through the race that day. Even the fifth, Teumessias Fox, won a handicap on his next start.

    As for this season, he finished a staying-on third behind Intinso – an eye-catcher on his latest start in a £100,000 Newmarket handicap – at Wolverhampton before bombing out at Kempton on his last start.

    If you can forgive his last run, he looks to have a solid chance on paper and Jim Crowley gets the leg up.

  • Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    Chester May Festival Day 1 | A Roodee Storm

    The Flat season is now well into gear following Punchestown and the Guineas last weekend, and the first day of the Chester May Festival is a good way to mark this changing of the guard.

    After a good amount of time spent talking about three-mile chasers (which is my passion) through the winter, my inner Flat brain is eager to see some rapid sprinters and Classic contenders.

    Chester is a tough place to bet due to the nature of the course, so the volume of fancies through this week won’t match that of the Punchestown Festival from last week.

    Speaking of the final big jumps meeting of the year, this column struggled to kick into gear over the first few days, but a helping hand from Minella Crooner on the final day pushed last week’s P&L to 18.5pts in profit. The overall P&L is slightly lower at 10pts.

    Considering the recent form over the last few months, a positive number in the P&L column is a welcome sight, so let’s not give it all back.

     

    1:30 Chester – Al Shabab Storm @ 7/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting with the opener, the Andrew Balding team have hit the ground running this Flat season (23% strike rate over the last two weeks) and that form can continue with Al Shabab Storm.

    The one negative against his name is stall 10, but his form is well above a few in here and he can make use of that if he gets a nice early position under Oisin Murphy.

    The three-year-old by Advertise debuted at Leicester in September 2023, but his best run of the month came 17 days later on much quicker ground at Newmarket when he ran into Accumulate.

    He hung left that day in the closing stages which allowed Accumulate to win, though the form of that race has worked out well as the winner won at Lingfield on his next start and the third, Native Warrior, ran into the subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech at Kempton in April 2024.

    After that, he ran a good race on heavy ground at Doncaster when fourth behind Ballymount Boy, a good yardstick thanks to his form with Vandeek.

    Back to six furlongs is a positive, though his starting gate is the only worry.

     

    3:40 Chester – Cadogan Place @ 15/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    This year’s Chester Vase is an interesting puzzle to decipher, but the 15/2 price of Cadogan Place is one of great interest.

    The Frankel two-year-old started his career with a victory over Hidden Law at Southwell in late March, and although he got the first run over Godolphin’s Dubawi colt, the ease at which Oisin Murphy travelled through the race was eye-catching.

    On paper, that form looks strong as the runner-up bolted up at Newbury on his next start and is the 5/2 second-favourite in this field.

    After all, that was his first run and it was on the all-weather, so he is entitled to come on for it now on the turf.

    He was well-backed on the day, which is an interesting fact, and he is a full brother to Quadrilateral, the 2017 Group 1 Fillies’ Mile winner who was also third to Love in the 2020 1000 Guineas.

    Considering all of this, I’m happy to chance him at 15/2.

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Yesterday, we saw a shock as City Of Troy checked out of the 2000 Guineas in a major disappointment. Today will be a trickier challenge with the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. A rather open field with plenty due for improvement, so who takes the nod in today’s four to follow?

     

    Blast-Off

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    1:50 – William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) – Kalpana @ 7/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Kalpana blew everyone at the Craven meeting, winning in handicap company by 10 lengths. That kind of form is useful when stepping up into Listed company, and should beat the field, who are somewhat either exposed or inexperienced. She has plenty of staying pedigree in her family so shouldn’t have a problem with the trip again.

    At a price, a horse I loved last season, Carolina Reaper. It’s hard to say if she will improve from two to three, but she is a Group Three winner (albeit in Germany). It’s a hike in distance and more of a fact-finding mission today, and breeding suggests overall a mile will be best. But her dam did get a mile-and-a-quarter when three years old, so 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) may be worth a little punt.

     

    Alert And Awake

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    2:25 – William Hill Dahila Stakes (Group Two) – Stay Alert @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Stay Alert may be a little underestimated in the field. She wasn’t successful at Group One level, and this may more to her taste. She’s won twice going fresh plus she’ll get her ground. Also stepping down a touch to a mile and a furlong might bring the best out of her. Plus, she’s top rated without having to give any weight away which makes her price all the more appealing.

    Caernarfon was an Oaks horse, many people forget. And she finished third. She did get stepped down to a mile and a quarter, but never produced her best. Her last win came over a mile, and she’s only a furlong above that. Plus, a course win only enhances her chances further. She’s a little shorter than I expected, but she should go well. 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Golden Ring

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    3:00 – William Hill Handicap (Heritage) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Bague D’or is a horse who can go really well fresh, with two wins and two seconds. A slight negative is he is off the same mark as he was at the end of last season. But he did only race twice last season and this run may bring about more improvement. Mickael Barzalona is a really interesting jockey booking and may deliver a first win in less than two years.

    Adjuvant is another horse who can go well fresh with a win and two places. He inexplicably had a brief campaign over hurdles during the Winter, but he’s definitely a flat horse. He drops two pounds to a mark he finished second at the Goodwood Festival last year, where he was nearly two lengths ahead of third. Adjuvant won over C&D last May off a higher mark but has every right to hit the frame. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Struth is a really interesting character. He’s won twice off a break, including on debut. He finished third over 1m 6F at Haydock last season, which is his only experience over the trip, so is still a bit unexposed. 96 is a mark he can give or take, but given he’s won two races in his career in the spring, now may be the time to back him. 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A Classic Renewal

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    1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 100/30 (General)

    Yesterday, we all thought we knew how the first Classic of the season would go. Now the second Classic is here, it’s opened up enormously. However, a Group One winner in Fallen Angel should not be discounted. Brilliant backs the form up from her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season, but so does her win in the Sweet Solera. Bred from a Group Mile winner, she should have it in her to win this race.

    It may be a surprise that Porta Fortuna turns up here, but she almost won at the Breeders’ Cup. She came within half a length at a distance that she had not experienced that season, which shows a massive improvement at a young age. She should get the distance now she’s three, and her dam won over further in her career. Definitely a watch at 14/1 (Unibet).

    Darnation lit up my eyes when watching her live at Thirsk breaking her maiden. She achieved Group success since, but just failed in the Criterium for Fillies and Longchamp. She’s a proven Group winner over the distance which should stand her in good stead, despite her being 33/1 (William Hill, 10Bet).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    And we’re off with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. After all the hype could we finally see City Of Troy become a world beater or will Rosallion, quotes as one of the best Richard Hannon has trained, snatch victory. Plus a terrific undercard too. It’s a two-parter Newmarket Guineas Four to Follow.

     

    The Classic Chairman

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    1:45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage) – Chairmanoftheboard @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Being at least a pound well in a handicap like this can make all the difference. And that is what exactly Chairmanoftheboard is. He was only beaten by a head at the Craven meeting and hasn’t moved off his mark of 86. Surely with the downpour everyone has had in the country has hit Newmarket too and should have enough dig to have his preferred ground and will have a good go at this.

    An interesting quote from Richard Hannon about this horse is “The more trouble he gets in the better.” Mums Tipple didn’t have that much of a successful season last year, with only a win at Chelmsford in March. However, his all-weather mark and turf mark are five pounds apart, with the turf mark more appealing. Plus he seems to act well at the start of the season as well, so should go near at 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

    It’s also worth giving a mention at a big price for Desert Cop. He’s been dropped a full ten pounds from his last turf appearance in the Ayr Gold Cup. He was last seen finishing last whilst finishing top weight at Kempton and the significant drop might signal some improvement from a horse who’s won early on in the season before. 22/1 (General).

     

    Catch A Dutchman

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    2:20 – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Dutch Decoy @ 15/2 (General)

    For a horse who finished within a neck last time out and is a pound well in on the handicap, it’s hard to figure out why Dutch Decoy is the price that he is. He’s higher in the weights than last year, but not by much showing that he is an improving horse. Johnston horses love to make the running and with everything in favour for Dutch Decoy, most will be playing catch me if you can.

    Majestic is a big Newmarket lover. A winner of the Cambridgeshire, he didn’t exactly follow up but put in a good shift at the start of last season in this race. He returns at a lower mark and conditions should be in his favour. He was only beaten a length into fifth last time out at the Craven meeting so he should be in and around the finish according to the handicapper. 9/1 (William Hill).

    If there’s one jockey that everyone should take note of, it’s Saffie Osborne. A hugely talented rider, and she gets the leg up on Mustazeed. A horse who, last season, began really well. However, he’s been on a mark of 88 for a while and has only come down after a poor performance at the end of last season. His last win came on good ground so conditions may suit for a big run. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Mit-Baah Humbug

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    2:55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group Three) – Mitbaahy @ 100/30 (Unibet)

    Three-year-olds don’t have a great record early on in the Palace House so I’ve looked to the more experienced type. Mitbaahy wasn’t too far away in the Abernant during the Craven meeting, and sometimes needs a run before he needs to be considered. Whilst not a Group One horse, he’s certainly a horse who can act at this level.

     

    Definitely Not Wooden

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    2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 8/11 (William Hill, Unibet)

    If there’s one horse that everyone has been waiting for this flat season, it’s City Of Troy. Everyone has waited for this horse to compete in the Guineas after his win in the Dewhurst Stakes, often a great pointer to this race. Rosallion does have good form behind him, but City Of Troy has rather better.

    Alyanaabi finished second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst and has his form boosted by Boiling Point, from the Tattersalls Stakes, winning yesterday at Newmarket. He’s bred by Too Darn Hot, which means he will certainly get a mile. It may be a question of ground after winning twice on firmer surfaces. But Shadwell usually gets their breeding right. 18/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    Punchestown Festival Day 4 | A Mighty chance for Brides Hill

    The third day of the 2024 Punchestown Festival began with a brilliant story thanks to Singing Banjo in the La Touche Cup, but the subsequent fatal injuries sustained by Kilbeg King and Sire Du Berlais marred the day.

    Sire Du Berlais was a warrior of a horse – his Cheltenham Festival record speaks for itself – and Kilbeg King was a personal favourite of mine who held plenty of ability and potential. Thoughts are truly with those closest to these horses.

    As for the column, from the three bets put up, we returned profit on the day as Will Do placed in the three-mile handicap hurdle at 33/1.

    I did initially think Buddy One had also returned place money after his run in the Grade 1 Champion Stayers Hurdle, but Home By The Lee collared him for third on the line.

    Still, let’s roll on to the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    3:00 Newmarket – Zouky @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Starting at Newmarket rather than Punchestown, Zouky is worth looking at in the seven-furlong handicap on her second start of the season.

    Having run well over a mile on the all-weather at Kempton last month, she’ll come on for that and will appreciate a return to the turf.

    The four-year-old by Zoustar performed well in Listed company on two occasions last season when clashing with the likes of Queen Aminatu, Potapova, Breege, and Nine Tenths.

    However, it’s not just this form that looks good as she was second off 87 in a Doncaster handicap in September, a race that has seen Dark Thirty come out of and win subsequently.

    Furthermore, Poet Master (the winner) has improved since as shown by his nice handicap success at Newmarket earlier this year off a mark of 100.

    All in all, she has a good chance here back at seven furlongs.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Flanking Maneuver @ 28/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The first handicap race of the day from Punchestown is very interesting, and a few horses made it onto the shortlist, but Flanking Maneuver is the one I’m siding with at the prices.

    Despite his age of nine, the Beat Hollow gelding is relatively lightly raced due to his 760 days away from the track between January 2021 and February 2023, but he showed his well-being in the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase last year.

    That race has worked out as Mahler Mission would have gone close in the 2023 Grade 2 National Hunt Chase if not for falling and he finished second in the Coral Gold Cup after that

    He has dipped his hoof into Grade 1 company on two occasions this season, one of which in the Neville Hotels Novice Chase where he finished fourth and the other came on his last start in the WillowWarm Gold Cup.

    Arguably, he has excuses for both the runs as in the former, he travelled well but found three miles on bottomless ground a bit tough at the end, and he was badly hampered by a faller on his latest start.

    A rating of 134 is very handy when considering the excuses for his recent disappointing efforts.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Brides Hill @ 7/4 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Regular viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel or my X page already know the love I have for Brides Hill, and today is where she gets her preferred conditions.

    She was a non-runner at Cheltenham due to the soft conditions, so a return to a sounder surface will suit her.

    Her ability is apparent, especially on decent ground when going right-handed, and with Allegorie De Vassy’s potential preference for a slower surface, that puts Brides Hill ahead of her in my mind.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Lifetime Ambition @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    When looking at any hunter chases at the big meetings, class tends to prevail and the nine-year-old Lifetime Ambition is one who still retains that old spark.

    The Kapgarde gelding was a decent performer for Jessica Harrington as a novice and handicap chaser – notably when second to Capodanno in the 2022 Grade 1 Dooley Insurance Champion Novice Chase – but he switched to point-to-points in October 2023.

    Since that switch, four of his last six races resulted in a win and his most recent success came at Cork during an 11-length victory.

    He has form on better ground and he is a quality horse, which is why he should go well on Friday.

     

    7:05 Punchestown – Mighty Bandit @ 18/1 with Bet365 (four places) – 1pt EW

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    Mighty Bandit has a classic profile of a horse I like to back in races like this and the 18/1 available has helped sweeten the deal on why I’m with him.

    The four-year-old by Order Of St George gets six pounds from his elders and is arguably still unexposed as he’s had just three runs, one of which was successful.

    That came on debut at Punchestown when trained by Gordon Elliott as he beat Lark In The Morning by nine lengths, a good piece of form considering Harsh – an impressive handicap hurdle winner earlier in the week – was back in third.

    After that, he went into Grade 2 Mercedes-Benz South Dublin Juvenile Hurdle as the 13/8 favourite but could only manage ninth. Admittedly, that was disappointing, but his wind was seemingly the issue as he had a wind-op soon after.

    Now with Warren Greatrex, he ran in the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival on his first start for a while, so he’s likely to come on for that and a return to a sounder surface at an easier track will benefit him.

    He has to bounce back, and that’s why his price is so big, but the time of his Punchestown victory in November stacks up very well against the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle won by State Man (State Man was carrying 12lbs more) and he can outrun his odds.

  • Four To Follow: Final Fling

    Four To Follow: Final Fling

    It’s the final day of the jumps season and what a season it has been. We’ve seen plenty awesome performances, storylines and shocks and it all ends today. History can be created with Willie Mullins top of the UK trainers championship, whilst Harry Cobden managed to wrap up the jockeys championship yesterday. But we focus on the big races at Sandown for today’s four to follow.

     

    We’re All Playing It

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    2:25 – Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) – Easy Game @ 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    This is an incredibly tricky race. The Real Whacker has had a bad season and hasn’t looked himself; Hitman has only won three times in his career and the rest look a little out of depth. Only Easy Game takes the eye for me.

    He loves good ground, and he seems to go better right-handed in Ireland, which will suit him at Sandown. He was disappointing at Sandown, always behind the pace and never responding. With better ground and a better suited track, Easy Game can make a big impression.

     

    Final Celebration

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    3:00 – Celebration Chase (GRADE ONE) – Jonbon @ 2/1 (General)

    You can pick holes in both the favourites, but El Fabiolo wasn’t at his best at all at Cheltenham and his jumping has never been the best either. Jonbon comes in off a win over further at Aintree and defending his title in the final Grade One of the season and the market seems to favour the former. With the course experience, Jonbon should be able to find more, jumping-wise, against El Fabiolo.

     

    Long Time, No See

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    3:35 – bet365 Gold Cup (Premier Handicap Chase) – Le Milos @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    The last time we saw Le Milos over fences was in the 2023 Grand National. The 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner hasn’t seen a fence this season, but it’s not like he was bad at jumping over the bigger obstacles. This seems another master plot job by the Skelton boys for the final big handicap of the season.

    He’s been dropped three pounds over fences, which only puts him three pounds above his Coral Gold Cup winning mark. He won that race on good ground so will love the conditions. And he’s one for one at Sandown after winning a novice hurdle here back in 2019.

    Annual Invictus, along with every horse in the Kim Muir, was struggling when Inothewayurthinkin turned on the taps. He could’ve finished a little higher in the field had it not been for a bad hamper at the fifth last. But with the first horse backing up the form and the second horse, Git Maker, finishing third in the Scottish National, 16/1 (General) doesn’t seem a bad each-way bet.

    Sam Brown, despite being one of the elders of the field, is four pounds well-in the handicap. He ran a cracker of a race at Aintree and hasn’t done much wrong in the latter stage of this season. He remains on the same mark and can run a race at a big price on ground he likes. 22/1 (General).

     

    This Time, You Shall Not Passe

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    Select Hurdle (Grade Two) – Impaire Et Passe @ 5/4 (William Hill)

    Two of the first three of THAT Aintree Hurdle reoppose here. There were arguments galore about who should’ve won the race, but ultimately it went to Impaire Et Passe. This middle-distance trip seems to suit him, and they’re not many of these level weight races around so be sure when he turns up. Langer Dan ran really well last time out, but that might have taken too much out of him.

    The very best of luck!

  • Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Sandown Jumps Finale Day | Whacker a Real class Act

    Well, the British jumps season proper is going into hibernation very soon which means it’s time for the annual Sandown Jumps Finale Day.

    Most years, this card is a cracker, but this season in particular promises to be well-above average thanks to Willie Mullins’ multiple-pronged attack.

    El Fabiolo, Nick Rockett, and Impaire Et Passe certainly add plenty of intrigue, but here are my plays for Sandown’s Saturday card.

     

    1:50 Sandown – Court In The Act @ 11/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opener – as expected with a novices’ handicap hurdle finale worth £100,000 – is a proper race with 20 runners and nearly 20 different cases, but Court In The Act can take this off a lenient mark of 119.

    A few horses in here, notably Secret Squirrel and Fiercely Proud, have form that ties in with Lump Sum and Jeriko Du Reponet in one way or another but they are weighted accordingly.

    As for Court In The Act, he won a hot maiden hurdle at Kempton on good ground on Boxing Day when beating Onethreefivenotout (second to Lump Sum on undesirable heavy ground at Wincanton in November), Moon Chime, and Sea Invasion (third to Jeriko Du Reponet at Newbury on his previous start).

    Collateral form is a dangerous game to play, but when that much stacks in in one horse’s favour, it’s hard to ignore.

    Furthermore, Moon Chime was third in a hot Listed Cheltenham bumper (won by Brechin Castle) on his previous start, a race that has seen Fire Flyer come out of and beat Secret Squirrel at Taunton.

    Harry Derham is operating at a 32% strike rate currently, so as long as tomorrow morning’s rain doesn’t affect the ground too much, Court In The Act has a great chance to land the opener.

     

    2:25 Sandown – The Real Whacker @ 5/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Ah, The Real Whacker, my old friend.

    Having backed him to win the Gold Cup one too many times than I’d like to admit, he’s back into calmer waters on Saturday in what is a winnable race.

    Although he pulled up in the Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup, he was running well from the front for a while, but the quality of the race mixed with the soft ground saw his effort thwarted coming down the hill.

    Prior to that, he ran a good race in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase, a race in which Ahoy Senor has come out to frank the form. Furthermore, although he pulled up at both Cheltenham and Ayr, finishing ahead of Stay Away Fay is a good marker in my book.

    2m6f on better ground is something that I think will suit him whereas Hitman has had issues on good ground in the past (beaten by Zanza in last year’s Grade 2 Denman Chase) and there’s a possibility that The Real Whacker could get a freebie from the front.

     

    3:00 Sandown – Jonbon @ 2/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    El Fabiolo against Jonbon is a clash to savour, especially due to the fact it’s at a track away from Cheltenham, but there’s a lot going for the latter in order to make me back him.

    His course record is golden having won on all three of his starts, and his form is top class.

    He beat subsequent Champion Chase winner Captain Guinness in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase last year and it’s hard to ignore his duo of successes over Edwardstone who then bolted up in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February.

    It’s feasible to think that Jonbon can force a mistake or two from El Fabiolo, and when you look deeply into El Fabiolo’s form, beating Fil Dor by nearly five lengths in the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase can be questioned.

    So, it’s bold, but Jonbon is the side of the fence that I am on.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Le Milos @ 10/1 with SkyBet & Weveallbeencaught @ 14/1 with SkyBet – 0.5pts EW

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    As stated on the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel earlier this week, two make the most appeal in the Bet365 Gold Cup.

    The first is Le Milos who has been trained for this race by Dan Skelton, one of the sharpest operators when it comes to these big handicaps this season.

    He won the Coral Gold Cup on good ground off a mark of 146 in 2022 and he is just three pounds higher than that winning mark.

    Furthermore, the runner-up, Remastered, bolted up at Kempton on his next start while Corach Rambler and Annsam went on to better things, one more so than the other.

    As for Weveallbeencaught, his best form comes on better ground having finished third to Flooring Porter and stablemate Broadway Boy, two horses who need no introduction when it comes to their class, at Cheltenham in October.

    As a novice hurdler, he finished third to Hermes Allen in a Grade 2 novice hurdle on his first start over obstacles on good ground, so a mark of 132 could look silly by the end of Saturday.

     

    5:20 Sandown – Mahons Glory @ 14/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Patrick Neville has two horses running at Sandown on Saturday and I fancy both to hit the frame, though Mahons Glory is the biggest-priced contender of the pair.

    Like the opener, the last race is a corker, but the profile of Neville’s eight-year-old appeals to me despite his mark of 136 which wouldn’t make him the best-handicapped horse in the race.

    The Fame And Glory gelding had a plan earlier this season of running in a Graded race on his first start for a long time and then winning a handicap, as shown by his win at Kempton on Boxing Day.

    After 107 days away from the track, he bucked out like a rocket in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle two weeks ago and faded badly, much like he did in the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle in December.

    However, after his Kempton handicap success, Neville explained that “the last day just knocked some of the gas out of him”, so one can hope Aintree has done the same.

    If this is the case, I don’t think a mark of 136 has got to the bottom of his potential, and you don’t have to go too far back to see his Aintree maiden hurdle victory over the likes of Heezer Geezer (who was subsequently second to Stay Away Fay off level weights), Mexico, Ginny’s Destiny, and Young Buster.

  • Scottish Grand National 2024 | Three Willie Mullins considerations for Ayr

    Scottish Grand National 2024 | Three Willie Mullins considerations for Ayr

    After last weekend’s Randox Grand National at Aintree, Saturday sees Ayr take the baton for the Coral Scottish Grand National and Willie Mullins could again be in the frame.

    Won last year by Kitty’s Light – a fifth-placed finisher in Liverpool – the Ayrshire showpiece is becoming a bigger pointer of future stayers than ever.

    For Mullins, the king of Closutton can cap another sensational term on UK soil after Paul Townend’s stunning win on I Am Maximus.

    Having sealed a second Grand National win, Mullins can make it a double swoop away from home.

    But with a total of six entries, which three look the best punt?

     

    Spanish turn – (17/2 w/Betfred)

    At the top of the markets, both Spanish Harlem and Macdermott are pushing newly-installed favourite Git Maker as SP fancy, but it is the former who looks the more appealing.

    After finally ending his long wait to ride a Grand National winner, Paul Townend looks to tick one of the few remaining boxes off on his card, the Scottish equivalent.

    On a rare visit to Ayr, Spanish Harlem is getting some real punter interest in the final hours before the race.

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    On of the youngest entries, the 6yo made his debut only 10 months ago but his record is more than decent.

    However, this will be the sternest test to date of a fledging race career.

    Having won as a debutant in native France, Spanish Harlem has gone seven without a win, but has been at worst third in all but one of those contests – his only non finish was being pulled up in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham last year.

    With a run of 3-3-3 this season, this will be a sizeable step-up in trip, but the whispers around the Mullins camp say he can make the jump.

    We are inclined to agree.

     

    A ‘Credible take? (11/1 w/Unibet)

    Meanwhile, despite two failed attempts in marquee outings this year, Mr Incredible remains a draw.

    Finishing runner-up to Beauport in the Midlands National, the 8yo has no concerns over distance, which may apply to a number of runners here.

    Mr Incredible was unfortunate to unseat Brian Hayes last weekend, having recovered from a faltering start.

    Furthermore, on ground which looks similar to the going at Cheltenham from his third place in the Kim Muir, Mr Incredible can make a mark.

    Now more than used to the trip, over fewer and less challenging fences, Paddy Mullins can take his mount one step further than last month.

     

    Wan to watch (33/1 w/BetUK)

    Further down the weights, Mullins could have a handy hoper in We’llhavewan.

    Though more of a heavy ground performer, the 9yo gelding has won two of his last five.

    Sire of former Prix De Paris winner, Imperial Monarch, the draw of We’llhavewan is not just his name, but his versatility – on paper at least.

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    Wins have come not only in the mire, but also on yielding/soft turf and took home victory on good ground at Ballinrobe last May.

    Not only that, the gelding also ticks a bit of a box with his last four trips over 3m+, last time out over 3m5f in the Irish National at Fairyhouse.

    Grabbing a final sixth place there, We’llhavewan might just put on a better show in Ayr.

     

    The 2024 Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday, race time 15:35 BST.