Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    On what seems to be a quiet, almost normal, Saturday, there’s plenty of competitive action up in the Scottish Borders. All eyes are on Kelso for some good, clean fun with no Cheltenham chat in sight. Plus Newbury hosts the Greatwood Gold Cup alongside.

     

    Kelso

    Nice To See You, To See You…

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    2:17 – Premier Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brucio @ 6/1 (BetVictor)

    Stuart Crawford and Scottish racing go almost hand in hand. He’s second in the trainers’ championship at Ayr. When he sends one over, particularly in the double green colours, it’s one to keep an eye on. Brucio won a rather average maiden hurdle at Catterick before winning at the DRF in the Listed Mares handicap hurdle by six lengths. With Jango Baie carrying a penalty, and Brucio with an allowance, the balance suggests that Brucio is top rated, and her price should be taken advantage of.

    With Nicky Henderson’s horses not firing as well as they should be, Personal Ambition looks a more worthy favourite for Ben Pauling. Heavy ground defeated him at Sandown in his last Graded race but beating Jingko Blue in his debut over hurdles as paid dividends. He is shorter than Brucio but carries more value than the fav. 4/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Salsa, Shimmy and Shake

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    2:50 – Morebattle Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Salsada @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Salsada comes into this race of a 315 day break. She’s wanted to run three times this season already but has been withdrawn for a number of reasons. She was last seen finishing fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle won by Rubaud who has franked the form to some extent this season. Her run before that saw her finishing second to Epatante, so she’s a good horse in her own right. She comes in on a four-pound lower mark which makes her an appealing wight for the race.

    Anyharminasking holds an entry for the County Hurdle and is looking for the £100,000 bonus of winning the Morebattle and, maybe, the County. Jonjo O’Neill has had an up and down time with him this season, but his rating of 136 did put him second at Newbury. It’s clear from the last couple of runs that two-and-a-half miles hasn’t suited so well, but the drop back should be better in order to prep for the big handicap a week on Friday. 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Bass Rock has been chasing for a while and Sandy Thomson has elected to drop him back to hurdles. Which has left him subject to a massive gamble. He was last seen over hurdles at Ayr in 2022 when winning over further. The handicapper has taken his chasing form into account and has dropped him three pounds. This makes little to no sense and is a perfect opportunity for Bass Rock. 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Sometimes, The Old Ones Are The Best

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    3:25 – Premier Chase (Listed) – Aye Right @ 3/1 (General)

    Aye Right is one tough old horse. Monbeg Genius is being prepped for the National, but it’s likely he should get in off a mark of 147. It looks more logical for Aye Right. This race is his Gold Cup. He’s had a superb, yet unlucky season, with two seconds and a third. There’s no stopping his tenacity and will have been prepped to be in the form of his life for today.

     

    Newbury

    Give It Some Gust

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    1:55 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Chase (Premier Handicap) – Gustavian @ 12/1 (General)

    The ground at Newbury is bottomless. Friday’s last race was almost won by a furlong by a horse who relishes heavy ground. Therefore, the handicap element disappears and heavy ground horses are to be hammered. Gustavian has by far and away the best record on the ground. He’s also handicapped incredibly well after unseating at the second. So long as he doesn’t do that again, he’ll be bang up there.

    Grandeur D’Ame is a much shorter price and seemed to be having a good season before unseating at the first on Trials Day at Cheltenham. He’s versatile on all sorts of ground, including heavy which he’s won on this season. He remains on a ridiculous rating after being dropped three pounds for finishing fourth in a big handicap at Cheltenham. 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    With three weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, some are running out of time to find an appropriate prep race. But Kempton could provide a last chance with three Grade Two races and a big-money handicap too. Plus, we look ahead to the Grand National with the Eider Chase and the Winter Derby moves up to Southwell from Lingfield, to complete this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Patron Pay Day

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    2:27 – Pendil Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Le Patron @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Scilly Isles’ was his first no-show of the season, but it’s clear that he wasn’t suited by the front-running tactics of Nickle Back. Because of that, his jumping display was quite poor. With no identified pace in the field, it should be back to normal for Le Patron, who is a two-time winner at this level and will feel at home going right-handed at Kempton. Even with a five-pound penalty, he’s still the best rated horse and should be taken seriously.

     

    The Wizard Of Odds

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    3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 13/2 (Boylesports)

    There’s a key bit of form for this race which comes from November. The Ascot Silver Cup’s top four horses have all won since. Two feature in this race today, including Blackjack Magic. He hasn’t set the world alight since winning the Badger Beers at Wincanton, but he’s handicapped back to a nice mark of 138. This was the same mark he was back in November, when making a mistake at the last when running a cracker. He as every chance of running another again.

    Unanswered Prayers doesn’t look the most attractive on recent form. A fall and an unseat, bookended by two fifths don’t’ make it for good reading. However, he ran a big race when battling for second at the last fence with Grand National Trial winner Yeah Man. His form for the next race at Ascot also holds up too. He’s off the same mark for the Sodexo Gold Cup and can run a massive race at a massive price, 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Newcastle

    Duck For Cover

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    2:08 – Eider Handicap Chase – Fenland Tiger @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Fun fact: and Eider is a duck. But today is about the Tiger. Everyone may be looking towards Anglers Crag, but the handicapper has had a field day raising him a massive 11lbs after a hattrick of wins. That will be hard to overcome, when he’s stepping up in class too.

    Fenland Tiger can take advantage of that massive rise in the weights, and the heavy ground up at Gosforth Park. He’s likes extreme distances, winning over three-and-a-quarter miles at Doncaster at the start of the year. He faces another rise of seven pounds, but with the ground as it is he has to be favoured a little too big of a price.

    Tommie Beau is another who can take advantage of the boggy conditions. He’s won two ‘Nationals’ already (Durham and Southern) and second in the Sussex National too. Heavy ground + extreme distance suits him to a tee and the mark he’s been given won’t trouble him. Nice even price at 8/1 (General).

    One rain lover at a bigger price is Rath An Iuir. Despite making a big jump from class four to class two, he ran in last year’s Eider and is on a three-pound lower mark this time around. Heavy ground helped him in his win at Kelso over the Festive period and sneaks in at the bottom end of the weights. Each-way claims at 12/1 (General).

     

    Southwell

    A Last Hurrah?

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    3:20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group Three) – Lord North @ 13/8 (General)

    Lord North has been a world class horse, but we haven’t seen him since he won the Dubai Turf at the World Cup Festival last year. It’s clear that John & Thady Gosden want him to come here, before one last big international plunder. He’s 11lbs clear of the rest on level weights, and it makes little to no sense why he’s odds-against.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    It’s the final Grade One before the Cheltenham Festival, the Ascot Chase, with one horse in particular looking to make a big impression on the Gold Cup market. There’s also the intriguing Swinley Chase and Grand National Trial up at Haydock. Plus, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton to make up this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ascot

    Victtori’s In The Bag

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    3:00 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier) – Victtorino @ 100/30 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    So far Victtorino is two for two at Ascot. His only blip this season came at Cheltenham, when stepped down in trip, and he didn’t seem to handle it. Now back to an ideal trip, he’s only four pounds higher than his previous winning mark, the same rise in the weights for his first win at Ascot. He holds no entry for Cheltenham and will have been aimed for this race instead.

    Revels Hill makes great each-way appeal, despite this being his first start of the season. He races off the same mark he was for this race last season, 137, when finishing third. Trainer Harry Fry says that he’s a spring horse, and in ideal spring-like conditions he should relish the competition and finish a lot nearer this time. Worth having at 13/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Easy Pic

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    3:36 – Ascot Chase (Grade One) – Pic D’Orhy @ 15/8 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Despite having an entry in the Ryanair, Pic D’Orhy should miss Cheltenham. This race is his Cheltenham. Second to a certain Shishkin last year, his unbeaten streak was ended from a tough performance by Banbridge at Kempton. L’Homme Presse is taking the odd route of going intermediate before long-distance and might just want an extra run before the main aim. Interesting to see Ahoy Senor in here, but Aintree will be the time to back him. Pic D’Orhy has been trained for this race all season you feel.

     

    Haydock

    Aiming For Grand Gold

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    3:15 – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier) – My Silver Lining @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When My Silver Lining won at Warwick, the cogs turned for Emma Lavelle and team. The Grand National is the aim for this horse and needs to win, at least, another race to be considered. With good form on heavy ground, a low weight in the race and never dropping below second in his last five races, it makes sense to go for him on his path to the Grand National.

    However, a winner of the Grand National Trial has never won the Grand National in the same year (Party Politics won the National the year before, Red Rum won his first two Nationals before his win in the Trial).

    Iwilldoit has had some time to readjust his mark back to a decent handicapping standard. His third in the Fleur De Lys made sure of that and is back competing, even better with jockey Dylan Johnston claiming five pounds. He’s lightly raced, with decent experience on heavy ground and seasoned long-distance travellers have a good record in the race. Nicely priced at 7/1 (General) to win his first race in over a year.

    Chambard still holds a chance at this race, despite being raised seven pounds for his win in the Becher Chase. It didn’t go to plan in the Welsh National, but Haydock may suit a little better with no undulations. And, going on his run in the Becher, there’s no one better in the race that can handle bottomless ground. Outside price, but not an outside chance at 22/1 (General).

     

    Wincanton

    Give You A Clue

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    2:05 – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade Two) – Colonel Mustard @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    The only reason Rubaud can’t be backed is because of a hefty penalty he carries. That gives Colonel Mustard a big advantage, now back over hurdles after a disappointing time chasing. Plenty in this field won’t like the heavy ground, but Colonel Mustard is the best rated horse and has the value going for him as Rubaud drifts in the market.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    With Warwick and Uttoxeter, it really is a Super Saturday at Newbury today. We’ve got star quality with Shishkin in the Denman and the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle with trainers from both sides of the Irish Sea looking to land the big pot. Here’s four to look out for on the card in Berkshire today.

     

    Super Sam

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    2:05 – Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Sam Brown @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    With heavy ground setting the precedent for the day, it makes sense to back the mud-lovers. Despite Shishkin being odds-on, he got pulled on heavy ground when it was similar ground at Sandown back in December. Nicky Henderson has said he will not pull the horse due to the ground, but we’ve seen it happen before.

    Protektorat hasn’t won a race in over a year, Hitman can’t travel three miles and Does He Know won’t act on the ground. It makes sense to back Sam Brown after his Classic Chase demolition on soft ground at Warwick last month. A three-time winner on heavy ground has seen his odds slash in half and it makes sense to back him against a vulnerable Shishkin.

     

    Surprise result

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    2:40 – Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Boothill @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    With Editeur Du Gite confirmed to be pulled, four runners will go to post for a rather lacklustre renewal of the Game Spirit Chase. Edwardstone drops back to two miles after disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase, but the ground looks as though is against him as it will be for his other three opponents.

    There’s only one pound in favour for Edwardstone over Boothill and Amarillo Sky. Amarillo Sky hasn’t run since last year’s Champion Chase, and Boothill is by far the most successful horse in the field. Despite the ground being as testing as it is, Boothill could spring a surprise in the mud against a top two-mile chaser.

     

    French fancy

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    3:15 – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Ocastle Des Mottes @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When Willie Mullins brings one over, for a big handicap, heads do turn. The fact this is a French arrival, and a good one at that, turns even more heads. Despite after a break of over 230 days, Ocastle Des Mottes will be fully prepared for the challenge. Plus, his previous form on heavy ground in France will benefit him massively.

    Spirit D’Aunou will relish this ground. Two out of his last three wins have come on testing surfaces. And despite being raised 10lbs, and second in the weights, the ground will override those factors. Gary Moore has been focused on this race for him, the fact the ground has come up heavy is a massive plus. 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports) seems fair, but it could be backed in the morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times in the last ten years. Five out of the last ten years have been double figure prices. If you follow those simple trends, you’ll find Norman Fletcher. His last win came on heavy ground and was convincing. This is his first time in this company, and he comes in under the radar at a rather low weight. If he wins at 25/1 (General), we won’t be stuck eating porridge.

     

    Bumper bonus

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    4:25 – Beacons Bumper (NHF Race, Listed) – Union Avenue @ 4/1 (General)

    In a race I wouldn’t usually tip, there’s a few things I like about Union Avenue. Firstly, Jimmy Moffat is bringing this horse down from Cumbria, which must mean he thinks a lot about this horse. Secondly, the trainer is a soft ground merchant. Out of his 18 winners, with five on heavy going. Thirdly, Union Avenue finished behind a certain Captain Bellamy on his final point-to-point start, with the form franked when he won at Chepstow in October.

    The very best of luck

  • Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle Weekend | Big-priced Champ in the feature

    Betfair Hurdle weekend always provides a good level of clues for the Cheltenham Festival as it’s one of the final stops before jump racing’s Olympics.

    Although rain has decimated racing at both Warwick and Uttoxeter, Newbury and Naas are fit to continue and, as such, I have a few fancies to consider.

     

    1:30 Newbury – Emitom @ 9/2 with William Hill Win

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    Despite his age of 10 and the fact he was once rated 155, no one can fault the form that Emitom is in.

    Since joining Alan King’s yard from Warren Greatrex, the Grade 1-placed gelding has improved 10 pounds from one victory and two seconds.

    His success on stable debut at Newbury in March 2023 saw him beat Hyland, a horse who has improved 13 pounds since, and his second to Saint Davy last time out has received a form boost as the winner won the valuable Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown last weekend.

    Up just two pounds for that effort at Ludlow in January, he has a great Newbury record (two wins and one second) and should relish soft conditions.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Our Champ @ 33/1 with William Hill EW

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    At the start of the week, I highlighted Our Champ as an interesting outsider for the Betfair Hurdle, and my opinion of him has failed to change.

    The six-year-old has improved markedly since joining Chris Gordon from Paul Henderson, notably due to his two successes towards the start of the season.

    The final one of the pair occurred at Cheltenham when he danced in under Freddie Gordon – who was claiming three pounds due to the conditions of the race – off a mark of 117.

    Three slightly underwhelming runs since has the Champs Elysees gelding back on a mark of 124, though Freddie Gordon is able to claim five pounds today.

    A return to that Cheltenham form is required, but connections have hopefully sorted out a small wind issue as today is his first run after a wind-op and he is also racing with a tongue tie.

    If he handles the ground, which is a slight unknown, then he can certainly outrun his odds.

     

    3:15 Newbury – Altobelli @ 7/1 with William Hill EW

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    However, although Our Champ deserves a big shout for the Betfair Hurdle, this week’s large quantity of rain means Altobelli is also one to keep onside.

    Unfortunately for Harry Fry and connections, the ground turned to be a bit too quick at Ascot on his last start, yet he ran a belter to finish second to Luccia and Impose Toi, two top-class Nicky Henderson horses.

    The Betfair Exchange Trophy was certainly his season-long plan, so his promising second on seasonal debut was a pleasant surprise.

    Furthermore, ignoring his disappointing effort in a Grade 1 at Aintree, the Maxios gelding is still unexposed and he even beat Ginny’s Destiny in an Exeter bumper which is good form.

    Seven places with William Hill is generous, so a double-pronged attack of him and Our Champ is my angle into the Betfair Hurdle.

     

    3:40 Naas – Riviere D’Etel @ 7/2 with BetVictor Win

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    Anyone who knows a little bit about my cliff horses will appreciate the love I have for Riviere D’etel, so I’m excited to see her back out today.

    She caused a slight surprise – based on the market – to bolt up at Fairyhouse on her last start, though her form with Captain Guinness from the last two renewals of the Fortria Chase puts her in the mix for any high-level mares’ chase.

    Furthermore, although a return to a left-handed track isn’t ideal, she ran well in last year’s Grade 2 Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before falling and she has good form at Leopardstown from her novice chasing season.

    Her jumping to the right is accounted into the price, but her form over two miles puts her right there and both Allegorie De Vassy and Maskada need to answer some questions.

     

    3:50 Newbury – Hometown Boy @ 8/1 with William Hill EW

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    Although his career has had its bumps in the road, there’s a chance that Hometown Boy could make use of his current rating of 135.

    The nine-year-old had 929 days off the track between his Aintree success off 137 over hurdles in April 2021 and his chase debut at Carlisle in October 2023.

    His 22-length defeat may look bad on paper, but he was travelling well at the front of the field before he overreached at the fourth-last.

    Stuart Edmunds and the team have given him plenty of time after his seasonal reappearance which should negate any ‘bounce factor’, and his novice hurdle form when second to McFabulous could make him well-treated off his current mark.

    The ground should be no issue – his half-brother, Walkinthewoods, produced his best form on soft ground – and he even comes from the same family as Simon, John Spearing’s 2007 Racing Post Trophy winner who achieved a peak rating of 152.

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. After the almighty shock of Marine Nationale being downed by Il Etait Temps and the excellent majesty of Galopin Des Champs, it ended up being a disappointing day for the page yesterday. But we look up and head into a new day, armed with the best tips around.

     

    Leopardstown

    Warrior Has A Weakness. FACT.

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    1:10 – Novice Chase (Turner’s Trial) (Grade 1) – Fact To File @ 2/1 (General)

    If there’s one weakness that Gaelic Warrior has, it’s jumping right-handed. He may have been flawless last year over hurdles, but chasing is a whole different aspect and in a high-quality field, every mistake is costly.

    Fact To File thrashed Zanahiyr over Christmas by 17 lengths, and over C&D. He seems primed to head to the Turner’s, whereas stablemate Gaelic Warrior doesn’t.

    Grangeclare West is one who has been overlooked in the field after winning a Grade One is a high-quality field. Whilst his destination may be over further, he won’t mind stepping back in trip and 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports) is far too big. A Fact To File & Grangeclare West reverse forecast may be the bet of the race.

     

    Gallop To Glory

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    1:50 – Tattersalls Novice Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    If it hadn’t been for a heavy fall at the second last, Farren Glory would have blitzed the field in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle. The form is clear that he wouldn’t have beaten much after Florida Dreams disappointed at Musselburgh yesterday. He’s still a Grade One winner all in all and Ballyburn did show a chink in his armour on debut, and also didn’t beat much in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.

     

    You Know What I’m Thinkin’?

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    3:20 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade Three) – Inothewayurthinkin @ 6/1 (General)

    Inothewayurthinkin brings plenty of quality form to the table in this race. A novice still, he’s finished behind Gaelic Warrior twice. He’s slightly up in distance, which won’t trouble him at all. His first handicap mark is generous enough and can make a big impact in a big handicap.

    Heart Wood also has standout novice form, including finishing behind Grangeclare West before he backed it up in a Grade One. With that sort of form, and not being beaten that far behind Grangeclare West, the handicapper took into account his previous run when not up to it against Blood Destiny. He’ll handle the trip and is generously priced at 8/1 (General).

    Lucid Dreams could run a big race, over an untried trip for John Patrick Ryan. He ran a great race behind Uncle Phil in the Dan & Joan Moore and showed signs of staying potential. It’s a big ask and a big hike in distance, but his last win was comfortable over two-and-a-half miles and can recreate that winning feeling under a good claiming ride. On the drift, however, now 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Musselburgh

    Hear The Thunder

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    3:35 – Scottish Champion Chase (H’cap Chase) – Thunder Rock @7/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt Gavin Sheehan has had the season of his life. Multiple big race wins has just shown how talented a jockey he really is. It’s possibly why Max McNeil and Olly Murphy have chosen him to part with Thunder Rock, with Sean Bowen back to riding on Monday and Adrian Heskin over in Ireland. After disappointing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he’s back in a ‘lesser’ race where he doesn’t carry top weight and gives him a fighting chance.

    And it wouldn’t be Musselburgh without Scottish-trained winners. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are the leaders in their respective championships at the track and saddle Corrigeen Rock. He finished second on New Year’s Day over two-and-a-half miles and the step back in trip off a pound higher mark, but there looks to be plenty of improvement from him. Generous at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. All the stable stars come out to strut their stuff before they stuff the British at Cheltenham. It’s always a good indicator to see where each Willie Mullins runner will be heading to in March, but there is a bit of value to be found in the slightly more open novice races. Plus there’s a decent card at Sandown to keep an eye on in today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Grades Count

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    1:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Loughglynn @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    It’s telling which horse Paul Townend picks to ride in each race for Mullins, and the market is always keen to latch on. I feel though, he’s chosen the wrong horse. Predators Gold hasn’t raced above two-and-a-half miles and was beaten, in heavy ground, last time out. The inexperience may show here.

    Loughglynn is a far more accomplished novice. His win at Grade Two level at Limerick over Christmas showed that this horse has an engine to stay. It won’t be as boggy as Limerick, so has momentum to build on from his maiden win at Punchestown. Well backed Jetara has been running against the girls so far and might find this race a bit too hot.

     

    Mullins & McManus

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    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Majborough @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Once again Townend has opted to go for the Gigginstown colours in Storm Heart, who looked like a Grade One juvenile when obliterating his rivals in the mud.

    But there was talk of Majborough early in the season and I’ve been excited to see this horse appear. It’s a sign you’re a good horse when JP McManus buys you. It’s even better when he sends you to Closutton. It becomes even more exciting when you’re first race in Ireland is in a Grade One. If that’s how much connections think of him, there must be something in the water.

     

    Sandown

    Patron Only

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    2:35 – Scilly Isles’ Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Le Patron @ 7/2 (General)

    Le Patron is the only Grade One winner in the field. And despite Harry Cobden saying that Hermes Allen was at his best in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, he still got beat. Le Patron won in bottomless over two miles, but he seemed at his best when winning over C&D back in November. JPR One gave the form a boost when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago.

    The other big trend is that Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race since 2009 and it’s unclear if this will be a stepping stone for Hermes Allen to the Festival. This is a race that Le Patron has been trained for.

     

    Racing West

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    3:10 – Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – West Balboa @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    West Balboa always comes alive in handicaps at this level, and she seems primed once more. After finishing way back in the Long Walk field, she’s had a rest and is back under top weight. Tristan Durell takes off a crucial three pounds to make her mark a little more accessible and she can out race this field in these conditions, which could set her up nicely for a shot at the Pertemps.

    Good Luck Charm was an outside chance in the Lanzarote at Kempton but outran her odds to finish fourth and within a length to favourite Impose Toi. Stepped up in distance, she remains on the same mark and is weighted towards the very bottom of the field. She’s been priced more fairly at 10/1 (Boylesports) but has a huge chance of running to them this time around.

    Equinus won by five lengths at Aintree way back in October and has had some respectable finishes in class two company. James Turner has been booked once again, and conditions will suit the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. Extra places will useful if backing this horse at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    The Dublin Racing Festival is on our doorstep in what is the final signpost on the road toward the Cheltenham Festival.

    Ireland’s top trainers have prepared their top horses for two top days of entertainment, all kicking off with the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle.

    With Sandown’s Grade 1 card on the same day, here are a few horses to keep onside on Saturday.

    1:20 Leopardstown – Predators Gold @ 13/8 with William Hill

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    In the opener, Predators Gold is a horse I have had on my radar all season and connections have opted to step the five-year-old back up in trip to a more suitable distance.

    After his debut success over hurdles, jockey Paul Townend said he got a feel that made him think he was a Grade 1 horse and that was put to the test on his next start when he finished second to Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

    The conditions that day were attritional, though he dealt with them well and showed that he is a horse who can compete at this level.

    Of his five rivals, none have proven Grade 1 form in the book, though the horse who could improve to outrun his odds is Stellar Story who beat both Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter in the two-mile bumper.

    However, with this uncertainty about the rest, Predators Gold looks like the one who could stamp his mark on the staying novice hurdle division.

    3:00 Leopardstown – Joyeux Machin @ 20/1 with William Hill

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    Paul Nolan’s Joyeux Machin is returning to Leopardstown for the first time since his second to Facile Vega in a bumper back in December 2021, and he could be well treated off 136.

    The seven-year-old has run over fences since the middle of 2023, though he has failed to reach the heights that he promised as a novice hurdler.

    Although returning from fences to hurdles isn’t necessarily positive, his third behind Inthepocket from his debut over hurdles is a nice piece of form and it’s only been six months since he last ran over hurdles.

    His opening success over obstacles saw him finish strongly to beat Viva Devito, a horse who bolted up on his next start in a maiden hurdle, over two miles and he is still unexposed over three miles having won by seven lengths in May 2023 before his second to Minella Crooner over fences.

    He has to put his last race well behind him, but his stint over fences has yet to convince, so a return to hurdles could see him put his best foot forward.

    4:10 Leopardstown – The Folkes Tiara @ 6/1 with Boylesports

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    Although he benefitted from the departure of Path D’Oroux, the way The Folkes Tiara he won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day was very taking.

    He jumped beautifully coming into the home straight and did well to see it out with a few fast-approaching rivals in behind.

    Furthermore, the eight-year-old was second to Final Orders over course and distance before he improved 17 pounds in December 2022 and he was then a good third to Dinoblue – a subsequent Grade 1 winner – in a two-mile handicap at Punchestown.

    He is a nice improver and could continue to go that way off a workable mark.

    4:10 Leopardstown – Grey Diamond @ 18/1 with William Hill

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    Not many horses have moved from Sam Thomas to Gordon Elliott, though Grey Diamond is one who fits that criteria and could hit the frame at a big price.

    The 10-year-old last won off a mark of 135 when bolting up at Haydock in facile fashion, so his mark of 136 – as well as Danny Gilligan’s five-pound claim – puts him on a competitive mark.

    He was given plenty to do from the rear on his first two starts over in Ireland, though his last outing was promising as Jack Kennedy wasn’t asking many questions on the turn for home.

    The Gris De Gris gelding is a good horse on his day, as shown by his third to Amarillo Sky and Fugitif at Cheltenham in November 2022, and he should be a fresh and firing horse on his third run for Elliott. Although this means I am putting up two horses in one race, both are big enough to play each-way.

    British Runners

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    As for the racing over in the UK, three horses look interesting over at Sandown.

    The first comes in the 1:25 at Sandown as Diplomatic Ash looks like a big price at 16/1. The five-year-old is having his handicap debut and showed plenty of promise in novice hurdles behind Walks Like The Man and Idy Wood. A mark of 115 looks lenient and he has a nice pedigree as his mare, Carrigeen Lechuga, is a half-sister to Minella Indo and also achieved a rating of 130 on the track.

    Over an hour later, I think Hermes Allen (11/8) could be too good in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at 2:35. His run in the Kauto Star was good behind Il Est Francais and a drop back to two-and-a-half miles shouldn’t be a worry. He is the Saturday NAP.

    Finally, in the £100,000 handicap hurdle at 3:10, I’m a fan of Transmission at 7/1 for Neil Mulholland. Of course, the recovery of Joe Anderson took all the limelight after his success at Plumpton, but the nature of his overall performance was very good. His maiden hurdle form with Inthepocket and Joyeux Machin suggests 125 is a lenient mark.

  • Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    After last week’s freeze out, the Cheltenham Trials meeting is sure to warm us all up. The stars come out to play, with Jonbon, Paisley Park, The Real Whacker and Il Ridoto to name a few. Plus, Doncaster has a fantastic card to play the support act to Cheltenham. There’s so much going on, we’ve had to make this week, FIVE to follow!

     

    Cheltenham

    Hire The Hitman

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    1:15 – Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Hitman @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being the second string for Paul Nicholls in the race, Hitman has plenty of credentials. He performed well at Cheltenham in his only appearance at Cheltenham. Finishing a good third behind Envoi Allen can’t go unnoticed. He has disappointed since, but a wind op may have cured problems. Freddie Gingell claims a crucial five pounds to make him have a fighting chance and brings plenty of graded form into the race.

    Grandeur D’Ame might not have caused a lot of shockwaves, but finishing fourth behind Fugitif and Il Ridoto on New Year’s Day was a fantastic achievement. He’s been dropped down three pounds by the handicapper, which puts him on terms with Il Ridoto who reopposes. The latter is defending his crown with 10lbs more on his back. Grandeur D’Ame has plenty of each-way claims at 10/1 (Betfred).

    Not many will have heard of Shelia Lewis, but they will have heard of Straw Fan Jack. His last win came at Cheltenham at 2022 and he has been running in far too higher company than he can handle too long. He slips straight in with a mark of 137 and has gone under the nose of the punters and could spring a surprise at 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Don’t Stay Away

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    1:50 – Cotswold Chase (Grade Two) – Stay Away Fay @ 11/4 (BetVictor, BetUK)

    With no top-level chaser in the field, the buck falls to Stay Away Fay. And he can deliver. On a track he’s run at, Nicholl’s has said that he is giving Stay Away Fay a similar prep to last year’s Albert Bartlett run.

    Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor has pulled up twice, once on level weights; Royale Pagaille has never impressed at Cheltenham; Datsalrightgino has a lot to prove on level weights over this distance and despite Paul Townend coming over to ride Capodanno, he will not stay the distance (See Savills Chase replay.)

    It’s a straight match between Stay Away Fay and The Real Whacker, in my opinion, with the novice getting the nod.

     

    You Gotta Love It

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    3:00 – Unibet “International” Hurdle (Grade Two) – Love Envoi @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Organisers have moved this race to make it look more of a Champion Hurdle trail. Alas, the Champion Hurdle champion-elect (Constitution Hill) doesn’t turn up. But Lossiemouth has her first run of the season here. And as it’s come so late on in the season, I can only see it being as a prep race and she won’t be as 100% as we’d like her to be.

    Instead Love Envoi looms. She’s better prepped, despite missing her desired race at Lingfield last week. She’s C&D and gave Honeysuckle one hell of a race last March in the Mares’ Hurdle.

     

    A Noble Edition

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    3:35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade Two) – Noble Yeats @ 7/2 (General)

    It may seem odd that Noble Yeats comes here rather than the Cotswold, but Emmet Mullins must have the National on his mind. He disappointed over Christmas at Limerick, but you must feel this is a target race before either Festival or National to keep him honest. Paisley Park has been beaten narrowly in both starts this season. Dashel Drasher stayed on well in last year’s renewal, but Noble Yeats could have won, if not for a few mistakes, in the Cotswold Chase last year. A Noble run indeed.

     

    Doncaster

    Looking Forward To This One

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    SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Forward Plan @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    It’s a very open race, but the ground may give you a clue. The ground is described as good up North after a dry week, which only favours a few horses. One of them being Forward Plan. Anthony Honeyball’s runner won a similar race back December over C&D. He was only raised four pounds and is still well treated by the handicapper for a bigger race.

    Another horse who loves slightly firmer ground is Whistleinthedark. His record on the ground is a first and second. He’s down to the same rating as he was when finishing fourth to Forward Plan back in December. And with his opponent being higher can finish a lot closer at 22/1 (Unibet).

    Top weight Richmond Lake might have more recent form on heavy ground, but he can go on any sort of ground. He’s been dropped two pounds for disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but Donald McCain’s horses never perform at HQ. His hunting ground is more up North and this seems a more suitable race. Outside chance at 33/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    Lingfield Winter Millions | Chewy to prevail in Masterful fashion

    The last seven days have seen national hunt racing fall victim to the elements, though the final day of the Lingfield Winter Millions meeting should provide a good deal of entertainment.

    Protektorat, L’Homme Presse, and JPR One are horses to be excited about in Britain while a clash between Allaho and Appreciate It would water the mouth of any jumps fan.

    So, let’s get stuck into the action.

     

    Win Bets

    1:15 Lingfield – Master Chewy @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Any loyal followers of the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel (love you all) might have seen me speak about the Grade 2 Lightening Novices’ Chase at Lingfield and suggest Matata was a “fair enough price” at 8/1.

    At the time, this was a very correct statement, and he is one I think can go well, but at the current prices, my finalised first-choice fancy would go to Master Chewy for the Twiston-Davies team of Sam and Nigel.

    My reason for jumping ship is I took a deeper dive into Master Chewy’s success in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at Kempton.

    His overall time was quicker than the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase, won by the 159-rated Editeur Du Gite, and although he carried five fewer pounds (which I’ve taken into consideration), his finishing effort was notably quicker as well.

    His runs this season have shown he can sit handily behind a front-running leader and pounce with speed in the final few furlongs, so with a good pace to aim at thanks to stablemate Matata, Nigel Twiston-Davies seems to have a good hand.

     

    1:50 Lingfield – Saint Segal @ 9/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as we love to tune our minds into thinking where certain horses are heading for specific Cheltenham Festival handicaps, sometimes it’s easier to ignore that and stick to focusing on one day at a time.

    With this mentality onboard, Saint Segal is a horse I’m a big fan of and I think he can win a competitive renewal of the Godstone Handicap Chase.

    I believe that the six-year-old would go well in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham off his current mark of 139, but today’s contest will be weaker than any Cheltenham handicap and today’s winner receives a healthy cheque for £26,405.

    Therefore, why wouldn’t connections want to go for a race like this, especially with a horse who was in the process of beating Boothill at Ascot last time out before falling at the final flight?

    Unfortunately, the handicapper has given him three pounds for that effort but there is still wiggle room off his current official rating and trainer Jane Williams is operating at a 30% strike rate from her last 10 runners.

     

    2:25 Lingfield – Nurse Susan @ 7/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    With Cheltenham in mind, it’s interesting that Dan Skelton has given Nurse Susan an entry for both the Grade 1 Mares’ Hurdle and Grade 1 Stayers’ Hurdle at this year’s Festival.

    The seven-year-old has good form with Love Envoi since early 2022 and managed to get herself back into the winners’ enclosure at Prestbury Park in December thanks to a gritty performance in a handicap.

    Up just four pounds for the success to 129, she could feasibly still be well-handicapped off that mark and she’s tackling 2m7f for the very first time, something which could see her improve further.

    Skelton and the team have always rated her as a decent animal, so with her rating still at a workable level, hopefully she can continue her progress at Lingfield today.

     

    Each-way Bet

    3:35 Lingfield – Notachance @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    As for the each-way bet today, I’m taking a chance on Notachance off what is a very reasonable mark.

    The 10-year-old hasn’t lived up to his ability since his third in last year’s Warwick Classic Chase, though as such he has dropped 10lbs since to 122.

    He is a proven stayer for Alan King and some of his good performances have received a nice form boost, notably that Classic Chase third as Mr Incredible subsequently finished third in the King Muir and the fourth, Guetapan Collonges, has improved nine pounds since.

    A spark of revival is needed, but his last few heavy defeats haven’t done him justice and he is a tasty-enough price today in order to take a chance.