Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing

  • Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    With a big freeze in the UK wiping out the much anticipated Clarence House, it’s a relief to have a good jumps card live at Lingfield for their Winter Million meeting. L’Homme Presse makes his seasonal comeback and could shake up the Gold Cup market with a statement win. Plus action over at Thurles too.

     

    Lingfield

    Hakuna…

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    1:15 – Lightning Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Matata @ 5/2 (General)

    This race has been switched from Doncaster to Lingfield, and yesterday confirmed the news that this race could be going to either Windsor or Ascot in 2025. But it can be an informative race for the Arkle, but this doesn’t look like a renewal that will cause any problems to ante-post favourite Marine Nationale.

    Having said that, it’s a competitive race and my money’s on the mare Matata. She performed admirably at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day in Handicap Company, only down by a length at the line. Her allowance puts her up as the best rated horse in the race and conditions will suit too.

     

    Presse Or Protekt?

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    3:00 – Fleur De Lys Chase – L’Homme Presse @ 8/11 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Only established as a race last year, this could be a graded race in the near future and answer some questions in the Gold Cup puzzle. The intermediate trip could be a good proving ground for those who have the potential to stay and those who needs to drop back.

    One horse who doesn’t have that problem is L’Homme Presse. He hasn’t been seen since the 2022 King George and has bided his time to work his way back into the fray. Going on his novice form, he should outclass the struggling Protektorat, who has had a dismal season. Kim Bailey’s Does He Know hated the ground at Wetherby, and is overpriced to finish behind L’Homme Presse for me at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Thurles

    Haughty Taughty

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    1:05 – Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase (Grade Two) – Hauturiere @ Evs (William Hill)

    It may not look the most attractive race, but when you dig a bit deeper it’s a two-horse race. Hauturiere doesn’t just have the Mullins advantage, but acts better on yielding ground than most of the field, who act better on softer ground. Silent Approach will make it a test after her efforts in a similar race at Cork in November. But Hauturiere should have the edge here

     

    Hattrick Hero?

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    1:35 – Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade Two) – Allaho @ Evs (William Hill, Betfred)

    After Allaho’s disappointment in the King George, it makes sense to drop him back in trip in a race he’s won twice before. It’s a clear sign that Allaho will go to the Ryanair, but it’s no guarantee he’ll be favourite, or have the race at his mercy.

    Appreciate It looks best place to give him a tough challenge. Despite having not won over fences since January 2023, it’s been tricky to find Appreciate It’s true calling card. This, however, looks his perfect trip, giving how well he battled Fastorslow in the John Durkan. He can cause a little upset, against an Allaho who has question marks over him. Best price 4/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow | Back To Normal

    Four To Follow | Back To Normal

    After last week’s washout, racing’s back with a bang at Warwick and Kempton. Big handicap action, plus an insight into the Brown Advisory Chase at Warwick and the Ryanair picture at Kempton. It’s a busy day, so Four To Follow is here to help for the big races.

     

    Warwick

    Tough To The Core

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    2:24 – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Apple Away @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Despite five runners, it’s a fascinating renewal for the future staying chasers. Apple Away looks to have her way on the soft ground, as she relished last time out when winning for the first time over fences. She’s up to three miles this time, which will suit her better than the trip in the graduation chase won by Grey Dawning, who she faces today.

    Grey Dawning seemed to suit the two-and-half-mile trip better and Broadway Boy no longer has the luxury of Cheltenham to help him.

     

    Back To Port

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    3:00 – Classic Handicap Chase (Premier) – Beauport @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    In the mud and the rain, Truckers Lodge was a deserved winner of the London National at Sandown, but in behind Beauport showed bags of potential. If not for pecking on landing at the second last, the winning margin may have been a lot shorter. Despite not having won at this marathon distance, Beauport has plenty of talent. Soft ground may make it easier for him and the Twiston-Davies team are the top strikers at Warwick this season.

    Fontaine Collonges had an easy day out in front in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day. She had her conditions, and none of her rivals could lay a glove. For that she’s been raised a steep seven pounds. But in recent years, those high in the weights have found a way to sneak into the top four, and Venetia Williams’ mud lover shouldn’t have a problem at 17/2 (General).

    Laura Morgan’s Percussion has been found over the National fences at Aintree recently. Placed twice, you would think this would be a prep race for the nine-year-old. He has to find something to get in, and he has a fighting chance on the soft ground. There’s no question either about the trip, although he was racing in the slop last time out in the Becher Chase. 14/1 (BetVictor) is great each-way price.

     

    Kempton

    Bridge Over Standing Water

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    2:07 – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade Two) – Banbridge @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    I’ve missed Banbridge. One of my favourite horses in training is back and should be firing. He’s got his ground after missing the 2023 Turners’ Novice Chase due to soft ground, and it seems Kempton has been unaffected by the deluges we’ve had.

    Three Grade One winners go head to head, but I have doubts about Edwardstone. Might the step up in trip come too late in his career? Pic D’Orhy demolished a poor field last year and this will be a much stiffer task. Don’t discount Notlongtillmay. Second in the Turners’, he has form from the November Gold Cup to go on and may be worth a reverse forecast with Banbridge.

     

    Imposing Figure

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    2:42 – Lanzarote Hurdle – Impose Toi @ 100/30 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK)

    The Lanzarote is not one of my favourite handicaps of the season, but this year looks a decent enough renewal. Impose Toi was only beaten by a neck at Ascot before Christmas and only receives three pounds for it. It doesn’t put him at the top of the handicap and James Bowen, now the Henderson number one, comes over to take the ride instead of the option of Warwick.

    Good Luck Charm raced a blinder at Cheltenham to finish third in a Mares’ Handicap Hurdle last time out. Back to today, she has a claimer on board which may prove to be a masterstroke by the trainer, Anthony Honeyball. She prefers give in the ground, which she’s got, and the market may be overlooking her at 12/1 (William Hill, Betfred).

    Mothill comes into the race on a hattrick bid. Neil Mulholland’s horse is up two classes, which is usually a turn off, but he’s racing of his last winning mark now with a claimer aboard. He’s dominated his last two races, in the final stages, and may spring a shock at 16/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    Warwick Classic Chase Day | Lanzarote plan for Aucunrisque

    After last weekend’s underwhelming quality of racing, Warwick Classic Chase Day and Graded action from Kempton is a welcome addition to the next few days.

    Da Capo Glory’s success at 4/1 helped the Best Of Bets selections last week, and I’ll be hoping to continue the form today.

     

    Win Bets

    12:40 Warwick – Klitschko @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    Starting in the second race at Warwick, I think that Klitschko could be ahead of his mark of 118.

    Today is his second start in a handicap having tried his hand in this company at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance when he probably needed the run.

    The full brother to Henry de Bromhead’s Arctic Bresil looked smart at Plumpton in February to get off the mark, one run after he finished second on soft ground to Jupiter Du Gite at Newbury; both the third and fourth have improved into the mid-120s which has franked the form.

    With the idea that he’ll come on for his last run, Klitschko has the right attributes to land a knockout blow on Warwick Classic Chase Day.

     

    1:49 Warwick – Mel Monroe @ 11/4 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Although Gordon Elliott doesn’t have the greatest record of winning Pertemps Qualifiers, Mel Monroe has the form in the book to change that trend today.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner has finished behind Encanto Bruno, a good horse for Gavin Cromwell, stablemate Croke Park, and Jessica Harrington’s Jetara this season, all three of which are Graded horses.

    Although we don’t know the strength of this year’s novices and how their form translates into open company, one could guess that it is a step above some of the other pieces of form in today’s Pertemps Qualifier.

    Off 132, if Elliott has Pertemps ambitions with this Walk In The Park mare, she would have to go close to winning today in order to ensure her place in the final.

    Furthermore, the step up in trip is something she has been crying out for and soft ground should be no problem.

     

    3:00 Warwick – Malina Girl @ 3/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I may have missed the 8/1 ante-post boat with Malina Girl, but her chances are still as good at 3/1 as they were when she was a bigger price.

    Off top weight, the seven-year-old should be well-suited to a staying trip on soft ground based on her Cheltenham form this season.

    The Gavin Cromwell-trained mare bolted up in November off 135 and was in the process of running a mighty race last month before falling at the third-last, though the handicapper was unable to change her mark because of where she fell.

    Following her run in November at the home of jump racing, the Grand National was briefly mentioned by Sean Flanagan, so she is seemingly well-regarded within the stable.

    With Conor Stone-Walsh claiming a valuable five pounds off her back today. Malina Girl is a rightful favourite and one of my favourite horses from this season.

     

    12:55 Kempton – Gentle Slopes @ 13/8 with William Hill – 2pt Win NAP

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    The NAP of the day comes from Kempton as Gentle Slopes should be too good for the opposition in the two-mile novice hurdle.

    Having switched yards to Nicky Henderson, he scored impressively at Cheltenham in November and was talked up as a potential Challow Hurdle horse for previous trainer Milton Harris, though he decided to calm his ambitions and send him back to Cheltenham in December.

    He disappointed there, as he did at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but his bumper form is ahead of his opposition today and sufficient time away from the track – and a new trainer – could feasibly see him back to his best.

    Hopefully, this is the case as connections once thought plenty of him and today’s seasonal reappearance is a winnable race.

     

    3:15 Kempton – Cap Du Mathan @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Completing the win fancies for today is Paul Nicholls’ Cap Du Mathan in the penultimate race at Kempton.

    This season has not been up to scratch thanks to two pulled-up efforts, though his fourth at Ascot over 2m1f is a good piece of form.

    Boothill went on to win another handicap and was in the process of running a good race in the Desert Orchid before falling, First Flow performed brilliantly when second at Chepstow to Quel Destin, and Saint Segal looked like a winner at Ascot on his next start before falling.

    So, in what was a race that was probably too short for him, he ran a cracker.

    Down three pounds since that race, he is just one pound above his last winning mark and Kempton is a track the nine-year-old has previous form around.

    If he can put his last run behind him, today should be an easier test to get back in the winners’ enclosure.

     

    Each-way Bet

    2:42 Kempton – Aucunrisque @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Having thought all season that the Betfair Hurdle is his target, Aucunrisque failed to get an entry for Newbury’s feature handicap hurdle next month.

    Although this is an interesting move from connections, it does suggest that today’s Lanzarote Hurdle has been the long-term target.

    With an official rating of 140, just two pounds above his Betfair Hurdle-winning mark, the eight-year-old has good form with the likes of Jetoile (now rated 150), Boothill, and Datsalrightgino.

    The No Risk At All gelding is, in my eyes, a Graded animal that trainer Chris Gordon has managed to get back down to a workable mark, and today’s step up in trip could feasibly see him improve.

    Gordon was one place away from winning this race in 2022 with Highway One O Two, so I’m sure he would like to go one better this year.

  • New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    New Year Day Racing Belle with a Lion heart

    What better way to kick off 2024 than some New Year’s Day Racing across the likes of Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, and Tramore?

    As many will know, Cheltenham is a local track of mine and as such, I’ll be attending Monday’s meeting, but horses are running in both the UK and Ireland that I’m keen to keep onside.

    So, for the first column in 2024, here are my full fancies.

     

    Win Bets

    12:30 Tramore – Belle The Lioness @ 4/1

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    Anyone who took note of my pre-Cheltenham Festival chat around the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle will know my love for Belle The Lioness.

    She didn’t live up to my hype when it came to March, but with a summer on her back and race fitness on her side, I’m backing her to return to the winners’ enclosure on her handicap debut.

    The seven-year-old first came onto my radar after her staying-on second to Liberty Dance, a 131-rated mare, at Thurles in December. The Model Kingdom was back in third, who is also rated in the 130s, and she managed to get relatively near Impaire Et Passe on her next start at Punchestown.

    Although she was disappointing at Wexford in November, her run suggests that she either badly needed it or hated the ground. With form on soft to heavy from her bumper victory in April 2022, one would suggest that it was her lack of race fitness that contributed to her defeat.

    Hopefully, Henry de Bromhead has her back because off a mark of 119, I think she could be well-handicapped.

     

    2:10 Exeter – Geezer Rockstar @ 7/4

    Over at Exeter, another horse who I’ve been excited to see this season is Geezer Rockstar and he is set to make his second start over hurdles.

    Harry Fry’s five-year-old was slightly disappointing on hurdles debut at Taunton last-time-out, but I’m not willing to give up on him based on what he showed at Taunton in a bumper in April.

    Furthermore, the opposition at Exeter doesn’t look the strongest; Pentire Head is probably his best rival based on his second to Johnnywho at Taunton in March, but he is still a work in progress and will likely be better next season.

    With this in mind, Geezer Rockstar deserves respect and has plenty of scope to return to the winners’ enclosure.

     

     

    3:50 Cheltenham – La Marquise @ 5/2

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    In the last at Cheltenham, La Marquise impressed immensely on her first start at Stratford in early November.

    Having spoken to Jamie Snowden prior to her first run, he was hoping for a good run though she was always going to come on for her debut outing.

    She certainly did produce a “good run” as the four-year-old by Beaumec De Houelle, a first-season sire who beat Pic D’Orhy in the Grade 1 Prix Cambaceres in 2018, quickened away nicely on soft ground to win by two lengths. Gavin Sheehan only required one use of the whip at Stratford, so there should be more to come.

    Both the second, Love Tree, and the fifth, Dameofthecotswolds, have won since, so hopefully La Marquise can oblige in receipt of weight from the boys.

     

    Each-way Bets

    1:20 Catterick – Chase A Fortune @ 12/1

    Small fields have made each-way options difficult at Cheltenham, though there’s a chance that Chase A Fortune could be well-handicapped over at Catterick.

    The Chris Grant-trained six-year-old has underperformed in handicap company this season which has been slightly surprising based on his 15-length maiden hurdle success over course and distance in February.

    Looking at his previous form in novice hurdles, the Cannock Chase gelding was racing against eventual 120-rated horses like Chapel Green, Don Hollow, and Astromachia.

    Since then, the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 105 and with his previous form on soft ground, today could see him return to his best.

     

    2:40 Cheltenham – My Bobby Dazzler @ 12/1

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    In a race full of questions – namely, if a few improving horses can handle a rise in the weights – it looks as if My Boby Dazzler could do some damage off a handy mark of 119.

    Mel Rowley’s nine-year-old has a fair record around Prestbury Park based on his two fourth-place efforts in the 2021-22 season.

    Although he has promising form on good ground, namely when behind The Changing Man and Young Butler in a valuable handicap at Haydock in April, he bolted up on deplorable ground in December 2021 off a mark of 118.

    Connections tried their hand at fences with My Bobby Dazzler and he did well to win at Worcester in June before a good fourth at Ludlow on his last start, though the Malinas gelding is back over hurdles which should suit him.

    His last few runs have suggested the old spark is still there and if that is the case, today could be a good day to keep the faith.

  • Four To Follow: Happy New Year!

    Four To Follow: Happy New Year!

    From myself and my colleagues at Best of Bets, a very Happy New Year! Let’s get of to the perfect start, with a profitable New Year’s Day racing. And after celebrating Hogmanay in the centre of Edinburgh, these selections could do the trick of buying a few more rounds at the hotel bar. It’s brand New Year, but the same old Four To Follow.

     

    Cheltenham

    Leaving Me Stumped

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    1:30 – Handicap Chase – Stumptown @ 3/1 (General)

    For the first ‘Premier’ raceday, it’s a pretty awful turnout. But there’s value to be found and Stumptown at 3/1 is an absolute steal. Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham so far after seven meetings with six winners, returning a +15.07 profit to £1 stakes. Form like that can’t go unnoticed, and since Stumptown’s run in the Hennessey Gold Cup, Cromwell may well have had this race in mind. Heavy ground is yet to be mastered, but Cromwell will have him well set for the race.

     

    New Year, Same Star

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    2:05 – New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Premier) – Stage Star @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    It’s a dismal turnout for the big handicap of the day, but at least there’s some quality headliner. Stage Star romped home in the November Gold Cup, but with five opponents it looks an open and shut case. Some may say heavy ground is against him, but he loves the soft ground and has never tried the heavy stuff. He’s been on the drift, but I feel he won’t be by race time.

     

    Big Bob V The Rock

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    3:15 – Relkeel Hurdle (Grade Two) – Bob Olinger @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    Whilst there’s only four runners, it looks a quality renewal of the Relkeel. Two Grade One winners in Bob Olinger and Marie’s Rock go head-to-head. Marie’s Rock has the most to prove after disappointing last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle, but a drop in trip should help. But Bob Olinger is fierce opposition. His reappearance record is astonishing, and whilst it hasn’t been 50 days, it’s been long enough. Rachael Blackmore will want to leave with a winner at Cheltenham, and her best chance is here.

     

    Musselburgh

    A Wee Tot

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    2:20 – Auld Reekie Handicap Chase – Half Shot @ 5/1 (General)

    Half Shot looks to make it a quick-fire double having won just under three miles at Kelso last time out. It’s a little odd that trainer Iain Jardine drops him back in trip but it’s clear he can handle going further and soft ground. Despite going up seven pounds, he’s well handicapped and poses a real threat to the Skelton-trained favourite Frere D’Armes.

    And with a cracking chance of finishing in behind is Cracking Destiny. He’s won over two-and-a-half miles and over the course and today he can put the two together. His win over two miles in mid-December was impressive but the handicapper has been fair by raising him only by five pounds. He sneaks in at bottom weight and could be the surprise package in the race at 11/2 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    After sleeping off two full plates of Christmas dinner and mince pies galore, we move to the best day of the festive period. Boxing Day. And what a bonanza of racing we have on offer. FIVE Grade One’s from all over the British Isles, and all covered in a special FIVE to Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Auld Lang Syne

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    1:20 – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Giovinco @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    I have problems with the top two in the market. Hermes Allen has never gone over three miles before. And the French raider Il Est Francais has never gone on anything firmer than very soft.

    The going may prove to catch some of these horses out and Giovinco will relish it. He was unlucky at Sandown with problems being caused by a loose horse, but it’s clear he’s a stayer and a sharper track may be the trick.

     

    Royal Message

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    1:55 – Christmas Hurdle (Grade One) – Sceau Royal @ 16/1 (PLACE) (William Hill)

    Constitution Hill is not only the best hurdler on the planet right now, he’s probably the best there’s going to be for the decade to come. There’s no wonder he’s such short odds, it’s a case of name the distance with him.

    But to get close to him I’ve gone with an old name. Sceau Royal may be an 11-year-old but he’ll still know his way round Kempton Park like the back of his hand. Rubaud has never quite cut the mustard in terms of performances and will be put against the sword by the old master.

     

    Boxing Banker

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    2:30 – King George VI Chase (Grade One) – Allaho @ 7/4 (General)

    Ever since Bravemansgame was beaten twice this season, I doubted he’d actually coming here. I fear that he’s been overraced and won’t be up to the standard we saw him last year. Then the might of Willie Mullins decided to get a look-in. Allaho looks tailor-made for this race, especially with Paul Townend ditching the usual St. Stephen action at Leopardstown. Allaho has won the Punchestown Gold Cup and has always finished with plenty in the tank when winning his two Ryanair’s. He is the one to beat.

    One who I think is very overpriced is a Grade One winner everyone has dismissed. The Real Whacker beat Gerri Colombe in last year’s Brown Advisory and had that form boosted at the start of November. Handicap Company proved a little too much and is in preferred race conditions here. The ground should suit, and I’ve a feeling trainer Patrick Neville has had this race in mind since the start of the season. Certainly worth something at 17/2 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred).

     

    Aintree

    Technically The Tolworth

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    1:05 – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 3/1 (Betfred)

    It’s quite rare we see an Irish raider in this race, but maybe it’s because the Irish don’t have far to travel off the ferry? But we get to see a Grade One winning novice hurdler on our shores before most of ours have had two runs. And Farren Glory looked a real nice type when upsetting the odds at Fairyhouse and beating stablemate King Of Kingsfield by one-and-a-half lengths. It’s quite often these days, we don’t have the best novices anymore.

    One to take advantage of the conditions at a price is Favour And Fortune. It’s clear he has a preference for soft ground, even if he’s versatile on form. There hasn’t been a boost from his win at Wetherby, but many of his rivals would prefer there to be less rain up North. Sadly, they won’t be getting it. He’s worth a poke at double figures, 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Leopardstown

    A St. Stephen Star

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    2:20 – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade One) – Facile Vega @ 1/3 (General)

    With organisers looking to get rid of one of the three novice chases here, an argument may be given to this one and its lack of runners. Only four turn up for this year’s renewal and no more than seven have turned up for one in the past ten years.

    And with the lack of runners comes the lack of value. Facile Vega will win it simply because of his quality, and the lack of opposition. Sharjah may prove to be useful, even at the ripe old age of 10, and Mullins won’t bother giving a sniff to the two other horses. For better value a tricast on the two Mullins runners, plus Cheltenham winner My Mate Mozzie, may pay something back.

    The very best of luck!

  • Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Long Walk Hurdle Day | Fry’s long-term Ascot Plan

    Last week we had Cheltenham on our TV screens and seven days later, Long Walk Hurdle Day at Ascot provides us with a pre-Christmas cracker on Saturday.

    Despite a few unlucky results with Malina Girl, Nurse Susan got the column out of trouble in the 90th minute last Saturday, so let’s hope that form can continue.

    Before we kick on, this week’s column looks a little bit different. The first bit will cover shorter-priced ‘win’ propositions that interest me on Saturday while the second half will highlight intriguing each-way plays.

     

    Real chance for Real Stone

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    12:20 Haydock – Doyen Star @ 11/4 with BetVictor

    ITV Racing is showing action from both Haydock and Ascot over the weekend, though before the mainstream cameras turn their attention to the northern track, consideration should be given to Doyen Star in the 12:20 at Haydock.

    At the time of writing, he is the outsider of three at 11/4, though he is officially just one pound behind the market leader, Inedit Star, and he is much more unexposed than Nick Kent’s five-year-old.

    On just his second start over hurdles, the Evan Williams-trained five-year-old beat Crebilly comfortably at Chepstow over two miles; the runner-up won impressively since off 127, ran well twice at Cheltenham this season, and now has an official rating of 139.

    Although he faded in his chasing debut, that was in the Grade 2 “Rising Stars” Novices’ Chase on his first start at two-and-a-half miles, so with race fitness on his side, and returning to two miles, I think he’s overpriced.

    2:05 Haydock – Jagwar @ 15/8 with BetVictor

    Fast-forward to 2:05 and Jagwar looks a cut above the field on his handicap debut at 2/1.

    Although Inthewaterside has failed to frank the form, it was a huge run from the four-year-old over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree as he travelled with plenty of speed but was just outstayed. With an opening mark of 119, he should oblige.

    2:40 Haydock – Real Stone @ 11/8 with William Hill

    Another who should do the same is Real Stone 35 minutes later in the 2:40 at Haydock.

    He was a facile 20-length winner at Haydock in soft conditions last month and despite his eight-pound rise in the weights – which looks lenient – Tristan Durrell takes off a valuable five pounds and he is a strong favourite.

    3:35 Ascot – Altobelli @ 7/2 with William Hill

    Over at Ascot, the Betfair Exchange Trophy has been the season-long plan for Altobelli and following his good reappearance over course and distance, there’s no need to lose faith at 7/2.

    Expectations for his last start in the Seat Unique Handicap Hurdle were average as he was always going to come on for the outing, yet he ran a blinder to finish second and even the third, Bad, has since come out and finished second in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury to frank the form.

    Harry Fry is a master a readying one for a big day and hopefully, that can be the case with this son of Maxios.

     

    Haydock is right for Park

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    12:40 Ascot – Illogical Logic @ 25/1 with William Hill

    Having gone through the cards a few times over, there are a few each-way angles I’ve landed on that could outrun their odds.

    The first comes from Ascot as I’m taking a small chance of Illogical Logic in the opener for Christian Williams at 25/1.

    The five-year-old showed plenty of promise on his last start in what was his first attempt at two-and-a-half miles.

    This run came after two runs over an inadequate trip of two miles, though on all three occasions he travelled prominently yet found himself outpaced.

    Today’s step up to three miles will suit much better and with an opening handicap mark of 107, he has the scope to be better than this mark.

    1:30 Haydock – Dr Kananga @ 12/1 with William Hill

    Moving over to Haydock, an early Christmas present may be coming the way of Ben Clarke in the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase as Dr Kananga (12/1) is a well-handicapped horse with suitable conditions.

    The nine-year-old is very honest having had an extended period in the point-to-point and hunter chase scene, though since running in better races, he has bolted up at Sandown off a mark of 125 and finished a good second to Eva’s Oskar at Exeter off 135.

    Last season was disappointing, though connections had the plan of preparing him in a hurdles race before a big handicap chase tilt on two occasions.

    For example, he ran in a novice hurdle at Bangor (when second to Maximilian) before a stab at the Becher Handicap Chase, and he then ran in the Grade 2 Prestige Novices’ Hurdle before he ran in the Kim Muir.

    This didn’t work out, but he had wind issues throughout the campaign, so with a wind-op in the bag and now down to a mark of 128, he should go well in heavy ground at Haydock.

    3:15 Haydock – Bushypark @ 11/1 with William Hill

    In the Haydock finale, there’s reason to believe Bushypark could be ready to go close for Philip Kirby at 11/1.

    His first two starts of the season have lacked positivity, though the handicapper has dropped him a helpful six pounds in the handicap to a mark of 115, a full four pounds below his last winning mark.

    Furthermore, Joe Williamson, who has ridden him to success on two occasions, claims a valuable five pounds off his back.

    Although he may be regressing slightly, there’s no denying the fact he is very well-handicapped on all of his old form and his 2/3 around Haydock.

    If he can get an easy lead from the front, he could sail through the soft conditions and be hard to catch.

  • Four To Follow: Some Christmas Magic

    Four To Follow: Some Christmas Magic

    ‘Twas the Saturday before Christmas and all through the house, everyone was punting even the little mouse. Because it was the Long Walk and everyone wanted to see, Champ and Dashel and even Paisley! Plus three more on the card, so don’t sit in sorrow. Here’s this week’s pre-Christmas Four To Follow!

     

    Ascot

    Christmas Champ

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    2:25 – Long Walk Hurdle (Grade One) – Champ @ 11/2 (William Hill, Unibet, BetUK)

    Champ has probably the best first time out record out of any horse in this race. Only last time, after a break of 110 days, at Aintree did he not keep up that trend. But never discount this horse, as his new found love for hurdling has made him much stronger. He won this race in 2021 first time out and there’s no reason for him to do it again here.

    I also question why the market is discounting Paisley Park, did they not watch the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury? This race is that little bit longer than Newbury’s and he would have wanted every yard of it to win last time out. For two veterans’, who we know can perform to a high class on their day, Paisley Park should not be 13/2 (General).

    The same can be said about the highest rated horse in the race, Dashel Drasher. I think many people forget his win in the Ascot Chase of 2021, and then went to find a more successful career over hurdles. Just because their ages are double digits shouldn’t mean their odds are. And on the back of a tough performance, at a track he likes, he should be shorter than 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK).

     

    Christmas Cards

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    3:00 – Silver Cup H’cap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Blackjack Magic was fantastic at Wincanton and he can add another cup to his collection today. Whilst he has been raised six pounds, he is performing a pound below his true mark which puts him at a slight advantage. Trainer Anthony Honeyball wants the ground to be softer, but if he can beat a good going Threeunderthrufive on his not preferred ground, he can do it again.

    In recent renewals, four double-priced winners have won the race, so you may have to look at horses that will have come on for a run. That’s exactly what Switch Hitter has done. A good performer on good-to-soft, he certainly will have come on for his run finishing third last time out on seasonal reappearance. Two pounds lower, he has a threat at 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Iberico The Lord

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    3:35 – Exchange Trophy H’cap Hurdle (Premier) – Iberico Lord @ 11/4 (William Hill, BetUK)

    Iberico Lord is possibly the most impressive handicap horse this season. His performance in the Greatwood Hurdle blew many away, and the form from Sonigino and Go Dante backs it up. If the five-year-old backs it up again, we may not see him again until the County Hurdle at the Festival. He looks to have the beating of the field today and can show another fantastic performance today.

    Way down the market, Moveit Like Minnie makes some appeal, even though the rank outsider. He came close to beating Sonigino at Huntingdon last February and has steadily been progressing through the classes. Finn Lambert takes five pounds off him, so he remains a pound above his last winning mark at Huntingdon in November. There may be something at 25/1 (General).

     

    Haydock

    Follow That Star

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    12:55 – Betfred Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed) – Lunar Discovery @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The ground at Haydock is heavy tomorrow, so mud lovers only need apply if you’re punting there. And one who caught my eye was Jimmy Moffat’s Lunar Discovery. She has a knack for heavy ground, winning on it three out of three times in her career. She’s markedly stepped up in class, but with the heavy ground to help her, her price holds a lot of value.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Christmas is just around the corner and Cheltenham serves up some pre-festive cheer with the December Gold Cup. Plus, Protektorat features in the three-mile handicap, and we get a look in to the Albert Bartlett picture with the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle. All three feature in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    A Storm Is Brewing

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    1:50 – December Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Thunder Rock @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Thunder Rock looked every part of the winner when winning the Colin Parker at Carlisle. Mahler Mission backed the form up by stepping up in trip and narrowly missed out on the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Thunder Rock has performed round here before, and beaten Monmiral in the process, so has every right to be a well-backed favourite for the race.

    An underrated performer in the field is Frero Banbou. He’s looked more comfortable stepping up in distance than he did last season, and that’s been evident by placing in his last two races. His mark is only two pounds higher than his last winning one and, backed up by Cepage yesterday, Venetia Williams’ horses thrives on this type of ground at this time of year. Decent each-way chance at 11/1 (BetUK).

    Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham this season so far. Six winners out of 14 runners at a 43% strike rate, he’s the man at Prestbury Park this season. He’s expressed his disappointment of Railway Hurricane being five pounds out of the handicap but has combated that with Connor-Stone-Walsh claiming the five pounds. He’s been placed twice at Cheltenham, and Ginny’s Destiny has backed up the form of his last race. Interesting at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Let’s Put On A Show

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    2:25 – The Sun Handicap Chase (Premier) – Broadway Boy @ 7/2 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK)

    Broadway Boy was nothing short of phenomenal on his last start. His love for the course is clear, but a new challenge awaits in the galloping nature of the new course. Fakir D’oudairies’ addition to the race makes Broadway Boy’s weight light and his jumping, if anything like last time, can put him in a league of his own.

    Elvis Mail may be more suited to the borders of Kelso. But a slight three-pound raise in the weights won’t cause him much trouble. His two wins at this level should put him up there, but it’s a tougher test. He can stay and he can handle the ground too, so why can’t he run a big race? 12/1 (General) says he doesn’t.

     

    Bob’s Your Uncle

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    3:00 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Shanagh Bob @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Shanagh Bob is another one of those exciting novice hurdlers from the Nicky Henderson yard. After the impressive Plumpton win, Henderson was reserved in his judgement and is waiting to see how he handles the step up in trip. He should handle it, given his sole point-to-point win came over three miles.

    The owner of the potato company that sponsors this race, Ronnie Bartlett, has a runner in the race that looks quite exciting. Cadell is trained by Lucinda Russell, who is arguably one of the top trainers up there with the likes of Nicholls and Henderson, and makes a gradual step up in trip, which will be relished. Potential has shone through on his first two starts over hurdles at Kelso and could show up here. A little overpriced at 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    The Local Hero

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    2:05 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – Bonntay @ 5/2 (General)

    Paddy Brennan has only two rides over Friday and Saturday. One was on Dysart Enos, which won, the other is on Bonntay. If Bonntay wins, Brennan will bring up a landmark 1500 career wins. What better horse to do it on. A two-time winner around the track, she steps up in trip for the first time since Market Rasen, and the first time up to two-and-a-half miles. It’s clear she’s been wanting the step up and she is a serious horse for the Fergal O’Brien.

    The very best of luck!

  • Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    Tingle Creek Day | It’s Brave to take on Seasca

    It’s been a tough time to be a Jumps fan recently with abandonments and poor weather sweeping the country, though help is on the way thanks to Tingle Creek Day on Saturday.

    Eight races from Sandown plus a good Aintree card makes this weekend one to enjoy, and that’s before we even think about the return of El Fabiolo in the Hilly Way on Sunday.

    As usual, a few horses are grabbing my attention ahead of the start of play, so let’s talk about them.

     

    1:30 Aintree – Brave Seasca @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    The fifth race at Aintree on Saturday could experience a case of Déjà vu as Brave Seasca is looking to win the contest for the second year in a row.

    The eight-year-old won last year’s renewal off a mark of 146 in a comfortable manner on ground that was probably as quick as he would have liked it.

    12 months on, Venetia Williams’ experienced chaser returns to the scene of the crime off a one-pound lower mark thanks to a nice display of leniency from the handicapper.

    Furthermore, he comes into Saturday’s task with the benefit of race fitness on his side after a run in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter where he raced the widest of them all before fading due to a lack of fitness.

    With the yard in a fair level of form at the moment, Brave Seasca is a classy horse and looks well-handicapped on last season’s evidence.

     

    1:50 Sandown – JPR One @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    As mentioned on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, JPR One was highlighted as one of my best bets for the weekend at an ante-post stage.

    Not much has changed since I said this as I still believe he is the most likely winner based on what he has shown over fences so far.

    The improving six-year-old won on heavy ground at Newton Abbot to start the season before his promising effort at Cheltenham when he infamously unshipped Brendan Powell after the last fence.

    Although a few people questioned why he was given 11 pounds by the handicapper, a penalty of somewhere in that region is understandable as he would have seemingly bolted up if not for his mistake.

    Furthermore, JPR One has good form from his time over hurdles and even finished a close second to Datsalrightgino, this season’s Coral Gold Cup winner, at Cheltenham in December 2021.

    Although conditions will likely suit Colonel Harry, soft ground should be no issue for JPR One and he deserves his big-race success.

     

    3:35 Sandown – Fontaine Collonges @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    This year’s renewal of the London National is a tight handicap as nine of the top 10 horses in the handicap are within seven pounds of each other.

    So, who looks like the best horse at the top of the handicap? In my eyes, with soft ground on the agenda, Fontaine Collonges is the one I’m keeping onside for an across-the-card Venetia Williams double.

    The eight-year-old progressed nicely last season with three victories on good to soft, soft, and heavy ground.

    The latest of these occurred in November 2022 on her first start of the season where she beat The Big Breakaway at Haydock; Joe Tizzard’s stable star went on to finish second in the Welsh Grand National to frank the form.

    Following an eye-catching fourth to Remastered at Kempton and two poor runs to finish the season, Williams has given her a wind-op over the summer ahead of her seasonal reappearance on Saturday.

    For a horse who clearly goes wells fresh, Ned Fox will take off a valuable five pounds in the saddle to add to her lenient handicap mark of 133, all of which suggests Fontaine Collonges has a great chance to pick up her fifth career success.