Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Four To Follow Who Will Be King?

    Four To Follow Who Will Be King?

    It’s the big King George weekend at Ascot, with another great renewal of the top tier race. Can Auguste Rodin make up for last year’s incredible disappointment? Or can Rebel’s Romance strike through the heart? Plus a fantastic undercard to get through too. It’s a King George Four to Follow.

     

    Junior Monarch

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    1:50 – Princess Margaret Stakes (Group Three) – Handcuffed @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    Often a tricky two-year-old race in the middle of the season, there’s a good mix of talented fillies this year. Handcuffed was one of the last horses to be bred by the late Queen Elizabeth II, and she has some speedy bloodline. A half-sister to July Stakes winner Tactical, she was ridden patiently on debut, before switching to the inside and winning comfortably. With similar conditions today and a yard with good 2-Y-O form, she’s the pick for me.

     

    Bass, Baritone, Alto…

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    2:25 – Valiant Stakes (Group Three) – Soprano @ 7/2 (Betfred, BetUK)

    Another tough Group Three to pick at Ascot. In recent years, the form is with the three and four-year-olds. Soprano returns to the scene of her biggest career win, and on similar conditions too. With the big three-year-old allowance, she comes into the race top rated. Soft ground let her down last time out at Sandown, but still produced a good effort for third. But she has more favourable conditions today.

     

    Photo Finish

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    3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – New Image @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Always a competitive race, and once again I’m going for a similar pick. David O’Meara’s luck has to turn in these Ascot seven furlong handicaps, and young pretender New Image comes into the fold. A rather consistent horse since transferring from the all-weather, he enjoyed a good success at Musselburgh, before narrowly finishing behind Tolstoy at York. With a rapid rise to the top, its clear O’Meara thinks highly of this horse.

    Metal Merchant hasn’t had much luck recently. Two good handicaps at Newbury have been offset by two average performances at Ascot and Sandown. However, he is drawn next to pace in the middle of the track with Dancing Gemini and Ropey Guest. Despite not winning on firm ground, the race tactics should suit him to a ‘T’. 9/1 (William Hill).

    Northern Express has finished fourth in this race the previous two years. He’s back on the same mark for last year’s fourth and comes in off the back off three decent runs at both York and Royal Ascot. He wears first-time cheeckpieces to sharpen him up which can only be seen as a positive. Underestimate him at your peril, 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Love Is King

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    3:40 – King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (GROUP ONE) – Rebel’s Romance @ 7/2 (General)

    I just can’t trust Auguste Rodin. He has the potential to blow out with every run, yet on his day he can be ultra-impressive. But Rebel’s Romance is the horse in the race that knows a thing or two about winning. UAE 2000 Guineas, UAE Derby, Breeders‘ Cup Turf, Sheema Classic and a win in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. He’s been everywhere and pretty much done it, including last time out in Hong Kong. He’s won on firm ground before and has the potential to be king at Ascot.

    Sunway for David Menusier ran a superb race in behind Los Angeles in the Irish Derby last time out, and with the three-year-old allowance has a big say on proceedings. Despite not winning this season, he’s come close twice. Firm ground will be interesting for him, but he’s unexposed and ran well on firm-ish conditions at the Curragh last time out. Each-way potential at 14/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • King George Day | City of Troy sidestep leaves Auguste Rodin in box-seat

    King George Day | City of Troy sidestep leaves Auguste Rodin in box-seat

    As Ascot hosts one of the summer’s marquee Group 1 contests this weekend, Auguste Rodin looks primed to make it second time lucky in Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

    With less than a week to go until Glorious Goodwood, beforehand, the next stop on the flat season calendar returns to Berkshire.

    The highlight of Diamond Weekend, an 11-strong field are set to line up for a winning prize just shy of three-quarters-of-a-millions pounds.

    And, for Auguste Rodin, after a no-show of 12 months ago, trainer Aidan O’Brien looks for a back-to-back season double.

     

    Take Two

    It was one of the turn-ups of last term, as 13/2 Hukum won the 2023 King George.

    However, the bigger story was Auguste Rodin finishing flat last.

    Arriving at Ascot off the back of winning both Derby and Irish Derby, the 9/4f and his number one mount, Ryan Moore, the 3yo colt put on by far his worst showing to date.

    Having been raced out wide to avoid the softer ground, Moore could not get the best from his steed, who, held up in the rear, eased up well before the final furlong.

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    Putting that no-show into context though, the rain that had fell in West Sussex on the eve of the race was a huge factor.

    This year’s edition is set to be much more suited to Auguste Rodin, particularly the ground which has firmed up to almost ideal pace conditions after a rare spell of dry weather this season.

    Pipped to the Tattersalls Gold Cup earlier this year on slightly yielding ground by White Birch, Rodin proved his liking to firm turf, with a relatively comfortable win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last time out.

    If the ground plays ball, the field will have to go some to take down Auguste Rodin this weekend.

     

    Path to victory

    His chances were further boosted significantly as stablemate City of Troy was withdrawn by Aidan O’Brien.

    With the winner of the Derby and Coral Eclipse now set for the Juddmonte next month, Auguste Rodin’s two rivals in the King George hail from two Newmarket Studs.

    As Ralph Beckett hands Bluestocking the golden ticket, Godolphin look to bring the other angle to the party, as Charlie Appleby eyes a second King George, after Adayar in 2021.

    For Bluestocking, as the lone filly in the race, the 4yo gets her chance to shine once more.

    Coming off wins in the Pretty Polly and Middleton Fillies’, the daughter of Camelot seeks a third victory on the trot, having finally blossomed from a burgeoning 3yo reputation.

    Now a progressive girl on the track, can Bluestocking make the step-up in trip back to 1m4f, having been runner-up twice over the distance?

    The filly has questions to answer over the firmer ground, but carries great hope.

    Meanwhile, Rebel’s Romance eyes a fabulous fifth win on the bounce, but will have no concerns over the faster ground.

    With the Sheema Classic already in the bag, the 6yo gelding’s last appearance saw a successive Group 1 glory in the Champions and Chater Group Cup at Sha Tin.

    Of interest to note., the horse that again finished flat last in Meydan was none other than Auguste Rodin.

    If the former is off the ball, having won the Queen’s Plate two years ago, Rebel’s Romance can bring much love to the Godolphin stable, at 4/1 with William Hill.

     

    The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes takes place at Ascot on Saturday, race time 3:40pm UK time.

  • Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Another Group One meets us head on, with the Irish Oaks at The Curragh. Also it’s Newbury’s Super Sprint Day for speedy two-year-olds. And we’ve got action over the jumps too, with the Summer Plate from Market Rasen. We’re everywhere today on Four To Follow.

     

    Newbury

    Elite Sprinter

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    3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Elite Status @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Elite Status beat last year’s Super Sprint winner, Relief Rally, in his first start this season over C&D. However, I’ve always felt he would offer more at a higher level and was surprised not to see him head to Ascot. As a result his talent has just been given a cap and, with the three-year-old weight allowance, can display his talents again.

     

    A Viking Invasion

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    3:35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Vingegaard @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    It’s always a tough race to predict. A big field of two-year-olds who aren’t at the top level, often inexperienced and with different allotted weights. Looking at recent winners, you have to have broken your maiden and raced at Royal Ascot. Vingegaard won well on debut at Chepstow and finished an admirable fifth at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. He’s from a sprinter family so should have no trouble blazing a trail.

    Another little piece of form is Richard Hannon. He’s won this race four times in the last 10 years, which is an incredible strike rate. He only saddles one for this race, which perks interest. Despite Miss Collada not racing at Royal Ascot she has two wins and a place to her name. The form might not have worked out from her run at Salisbury, but performances suggest there’s a lot to come. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Market Rasen

    Boom Boom Boom

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    3:15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier) – Boombawn @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    A little reminder that the jumps season is not too far away with the Summer Plate, summer specialists are the ones to back. Boombawn loves to have his day in the sun. He’s only just started his career as a chaser, so it says a lot when Dan Skelton puts him into a big handicap. He remains on a mark of 135 and can come on from the run from his second last time out.

    If there’s one horse that will religiously turn up to this race, it’s two time winner Francky Du Berlais. He’s nine pounds lower than last year’s race, and eight pounds lower than his lowest winning mark in the race. Despite being an old boy, he’s been placed in his last two runs, so there’s still life in the old boy yet. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh

    Oh Happy Day

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    3:40 – Irish Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General)

    Only four wins in the last ten years for Aidan O’Brien might seem good at first, but with his records in Ireland far bigger than that, it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more. Content hasn’t been impressive, but the market took not when Ryan Moore decided to ride her instead of Port Fairy. However, a relation added to her form as half-sister Bedtime Story ripped the Chesham field apart. Content also has form from the Coronation Stakes and was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly a couple of weeks ago.

    Lava Stream was ultra-impressive and almost chased down Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale. Now she steps up to group one level and may be a little underestimated by the market. She’s from a middle-distance family and can go on all sorts of ground, so good ground at the Curragh will have her suited. The English flat horses always seem to pinch a prize over in Ireland and it could be Lava Stream’s day to do so. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    Newmarket July Cup Day | Row up the River

    In what is labelled as ‘Super Saturday’ in the racing world, Newmarket July Cup Day is upon us with top-class action from Newmarket, Ascot, Chester, and York to look forward to.

    With a plethora of racing on our screens today, here are my main bets.

     

    2:12 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 33/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    Heritage House has taken a walk in the market this morning, but as they say, the horse doesn’t know its price and her form in the book looks interesting off a mark of 93.

    The Dark Angel three-year-old has tried handicap company on two occasions, winning one and finishing second to Chic Colombine the other time.

    Chic Colombine is a Listed winner rated 103, so that form looks fairly strong.

    As for her other runs, she finished fourth to Romantic Style – a subsequent French 1000 Guineas fourth – in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes last year and she then ran a good race on her last start.

    That race was the Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle and the winner, Jabaara, franked the form yesterday by finishing second to Porta Fortuna in the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes.

    The James Fanshawe yard is in fair form currently, so she’s an interesting contender at a big price.

     

    2:20 Ascot – Embesto @ 14/1 with William Hill (2 places) – 1pt EW

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    Over at Ascot, my main play from the course comes at a price as Embesto can outrun his odds in the Group 2 Summer Mile Stakes.

    It’s not a vintage renewal on paper, but the four-year-old by Roaring Lion progressed nicely as a three-year-old and has form in the book that makes him interesting in this company.

    As much as he failed to fire subsequently, finishing second to Nostrum in the Listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes looks like good form and he then showed great attitude to force a dead-heat in the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury.

    Following a good fourth to Poker Face (second to Charyn at the start of this year) and Isaac Shelby (Classic form from last season) in the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein, he has had a murky start to his 2024 campaign.

    One can forgive him for his first run of the season and then he had a troubled route through the Group 3 Diomed Stakes, so he has had excuses for the efforts.

    If he puts his best foot forward – which he should do thanks to a bit more race fitness – I can see him having a good chance of causing a surprise.

     

    3:45 York – Al Qareem @ 3/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    With eight runners declared for the Group 3 Silver Cup Stakes at York, the race looks ripe for an each-way play, but I can’t get away from Al Qareem at the head of affairs.

    Conditions look pretty decent for the five-year-old by Awtaad as he is racing over 1m6f at York on good to soft ground.

    He’s won at York over 1m4f before, but he did win the Group 2 Prix Chaudenay over 1m7f in 2022, so the trip is not too much of a worry.

    Ignoring his 2022 form (which looks good on paper having run alongside Eldar Eldarov and Deauville Legend), his 2023 form is the best in the race.

    Having had a stint abroad in early 2023, he returned to the UK with a victory over Bluestocking in the Listed Stand Cup Stakes at Chester before beating Israr in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes.

    Subsequently, he has finished behind Hamish on two occasions, once in the 2023 Group 3 St Simon Stakes and once at the start of this season in the Group 3 Surprise Stakes.

    So, with all that form in the book, let’s hope he translates that to the track.

     

    4:35 Newmarket – River Tiber @ 8/1 with Betfair (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is a good renewal of the July Cup, I’m chancing River Tiber for a stable that does well in this contest with horses dropping in trip.

    Aidan O’Brien won the race with U S Navy Flag in 2018 and Ten Sovereigns in 2019, two horses who started the season at eight furlongs.

    That is the same profile as River Tiber who ran a great race when third to Rosallion in the Group 1 Irish 2000 Guineas at the end of May.

    Furthermore, one could argue that the Irish Guineas turned into a bit of a sprint as the early sectionals were on the slow side and the front three flew home with wet sails.

    With my frequently-used forgiving hat on, he potentially bounced in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and there was plenty of confidence behind him that day.

    Of course, one has to respect Vandeek and Inisherin at the head of the market, but 8/1 seems like a fair price for a horse of River Tiber’s quality and I’m happy to back him.

  • Newmarket July Festival | Khaadem eyes July Cup Group 1 double

    Newmarket July Festival | Khaadem eyes July Cup Group 1 double

    As Saturday sees the July Festival wrap up at Newmarket, the July Cup has Khaadem seeking a Group 1 season double.

    On the heels of two days of flat racing at HQ, the ground has held up well enough, but as rain arrives overnight in Suffolk, that could thrown the form book asunder.

    And as Charlie Hills look to keep a good thing going, will the rain help or hinder Khaadem and Billy Loughnane?

     

    Surprise defender

    Now 8yo, through he may only have nine careers wins from 34, Khaadem remains a horse for the big occasion.

    A two-time Group 1 winner, the son of Dark Angel once again stunned Royal Ascot to storm home and retain the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last month.

    Only a second win since winning the King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood in July 2022, said two victories bucked both trend and form.

    With entries in the Sprint Cup and Nunthorpe Stakes to follow in the coming weeks, can Khaadem prove a consistent performer in elite company?

     

    HQ omen?

    We mention the King George two years back, that day was the first and only time Khaadem has put together back-to-back career wins.

    His victory prior was at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes at the start of that season, so though cynics might suggest the presence of a one-course wonder, Khaadem can get it done at HQ.

    Perhaps the bigger question surrounds the ground for Saturday, as the going looks set to switch from good to good to soft, but more likely, soft.

    Khaadem’s three biggest wins have all come on faster ground but has proven a liking for the juicy turf in the past, albeit some six years ago.

    So there is a good deal of uncertainty to his chances, but if it comes down the form, Khaadem is still a player at 20/1.

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    A ‘Sher thing?

    A good deal off the top billing, the favourite to to take the winning post in the July Cup is currently Inisherin.

    Himself buoyant from the Commonwealth Cup, the 3yo colt is looking for a third win on the spin and has no concerns over the ground.

    Returning to Newmarket after finishing sixth in the 2000 Guineas, the 40/1 shot that day has been one of the form runners into the summer, and over 6f might take some beating.

    The softening ground may also disappoint the ever-game Swingalong, who after being pipped at the death by Khaadem at Royal Ascot will be keen to exact a dose of vengeance.

    Having placed in five of the last six outings over 6f, and leading from stalls to the brink of victory last time out, trainer Karl Burke will be quietly confident of his and his 4yo’s chances.

     

    The My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes takes place on Saturday at 4:35pm UK time.

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Three tips on Day Three of the July Festival, plus a John Smith’s Cup tip at York

     

    Newmarket

    Greek God

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    3:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Often one of the two-year-old races to watch, the Superlative has given light to the careers of Native Trail and City Of Troy in recent years. This year, there aren’t many horses to pick from impressive breeding lines so form lines are extra important. The Parthenon enjoyed a nice win at Gowran last time out, and his form line works out slightly better than his Godolphin counterpart.

    Look out for Pentle Bay who was best of the rest behind Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot. He’s one of a couple of horses to win on giving ground in his early career and has plenty of staying pedigree for the future. 5/1 (William Hill).

     

    Totally Mad

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    4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Most people would associate seven furlong handicaps with Ascot, but the Bunbury Cup is always a competitive feature of the July Festival. Awaal finished third in this race last year, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind winner Biggles. He’s back down to a mark of 102, the same when finishing second in the Lincoln handicap in 2023. He’s three pounds lower than his mark last year for this race and Simon & Ed Crisford enjoyed a double on yesterday’s card and can build on that today.

    Darkness has less success at this level of handicapping, but has one crucial thing in is favour. He’s two from two on the July course, horses for courses they say. His two wins on the course both came on firm ground, but when in France he has won of soft ground too, so there shouldn’t be any problems there. He can defy a six pound penalty today and make a good showing at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Yorkshire has two things that I really like about him. One: His name. Two: His low weight. Despite not performing at this level of handicapping in the past, he comes into this race with a win over seven furlongs already. Plus he has a versatility with ground, winning from good-to-firm to good-to-soft. Only three pounds above his last winning mark and has the weight of God’s Own County behind him. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Re-Match Point

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    4:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Vandeek @ 7/2 (Unibet)

    Plenty of rematch’s in this ultra-competitive July Cup. I’m siding with the Crisford’s once again with their stable star. Vandeek wasn’t up to his best at Haydock, but given it was his first run of the season, I’m willing to let that slide. After he missed the Royal meeting, this was the clear target for Vandeek and should put in a first-class performance.

    Mill Stream has been very consistent in sprint races this season. Out of three he’s finished 2, 1, 3 respectively. The furthest he got beat was by Khaadem at Royal Ascot last time out, and only by one-and-three-quarter lengths. He’s versatile on all ground and seems to come alive during mid-summer. 12/1 (General).

    This will be Jasour’s first time in open company, with the older horses involved. Again, he’s been quite consistent in two runs, with a win and third in the Commonwealth Cup. With a six pound allowance for three-year-olds, the younger horses are always preferred. Particularly, with 5 of the last 10 winners all three-year-olds. If he’s on his day again, he can run a big race at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    John Smith’s Keats

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    3:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Epic Poet @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Always one of the most exciting handicaps of the summer, in my opinion, the John Smith’s Cup. Epic Poet is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race, being three pounds well-in and a second last time out. He remains on the same mark of 97 and has a tendency to perform on soft ground, going on his career wins which all happened in France. He can overcome an outside draw, similar to Farraaj 10 years ago.

    Not many favourites, or single-price runners win this race. Looking down the market Paradis looks a nice each-way selection. Despite not being placed on a mark of 95, he’s down in the lower half of the weights. He loves give in the ground, and he’s got good-to-soft today. If he can overcome his big field no shows, then he has a big shout. 12/1 (William Hill).

    Dual Identity has the benefit of having a win to his name already this season. Despite being a Sandown specialist, he has won over ten furlongs. He’s down to a mark he can handle, and has the benefit of a claimer on board. He’s a little bit well-in, which may put him above some of the other runners. Can he win away from Sandown for the third time? 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day Two of the July Festival

     

    Trip To Paris

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    1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Chantilly @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The form from the London Gold Cup has once again proven itself to be a hot piece of guidance. Chantilly came third in that race and underperformed at Ascot last time out. However, give him the excuse of firm ground and he should be a better match today. He also steps down in trip which will suit him, as he’s closely related to milers in his family.

    Sun God is likely to be a major threat in this race and has been found out by the market, but is still backable. A half-brother to Lillie Langtry and Park Hill winner Sumo Sam, Sun God is likely to go well at both the surface and the trip at this stage in his career. He also showed positive signs when just being held off by Black Run back in May. Exciting prospect at 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Heavens Gate

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    2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Heavens Gate @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Heavens Gate showcased a lot of potential despite being second choice behind Fairy Godmother in the Albany at Royal Ascot. She set the pace pretty much all the way and was just succumbed to Fairy Godmother coming over the top. She will have soft ground in her pedigree and should be able to handle this test.

    Fiery Lucy is also one I favour. Her run at Fairyhouse has seen the second back up the form next time out at Bellewstown and comes into the race. Despite not being out of an affirmed sire and only related to one black type horse she might not have the best pedigree for a Group Two. But her form and performances are worth noting. 11/1 (General).

     

    Golden Band

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    3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Bague D’Or is very consistent in handicaps, particularly when winning on his first start of the season. He’s a modest four pounds above that previous winning mark. There may be a slight negative that he hasn’t won on any ground worse than good, but his record in handicaps is so consistent I can’t look past him.

    Knightswood makes an appeal at a price. The Johnston stable has a decent record in the race having recently won it back in 2022. With the market just preferring Knightswood over the other two in the race, there has to be something right with him. A classic stayer and steadily rising up the weights, he turns up with a low weight on his back and looks versatile on the ground. 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Favour Or Fortuna

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    3:35 – Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 6/4 (William Hill)

    With the form from both the 1000 Guineas Stakes working out superbly well, the ideal pick is someone who has benefitted. Porta Fortuna won the Coronation Stakes after being nosed off by Elmalka in the 1000 Guineas. And with none of her rivals turning up here, the talented Porta Fortuna can scorch away and do us all a favour by handing us a profit.

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day One of the July Festival

     

    Lunar Hero

    1:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Space Legend @ 2/1 (William Hill)

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    Ancient Wisdom is clearly the better rated, but has been underwhelming in his first two starts as a three-year-old. He never handled the track at Epsom, and was well beaten at York. Space Legend has been a little more consistent. He was well beaten on firm ground at Royal Ascot, but was almost two lengths clear of the rest of the field. With staying pedigree, his clear target is the St Leger and this is often a quiet trial.

     

    Whistle While You Work

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    2:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 5/4 (General)

    If you look back at Whistlejacket’s run at Royal Ascot, he never ran badly. He consistently led his group down the centre of the course, but the clear negative for him was the firm ground. Which is understandable, previous form backs it up. Had it been firmer ground today, it would be a far more open race. But with only few horses having experience on soft ground, Whistlejacket is a clear pick

     

    Soft Sprinter

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    3:00 – Bet Boost Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Moswaat @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Three-year-old handicaps still annoy me a little bit at this time of year. But we plug on and look for a sprinter who can handle the soft ground. Moswaat fits the bill for me. His first three runs this season have been disappointing, but he has only won previously on soft ground. He’s been dropped three pounds for his run at Royal Ascot and is down the weights today. Silvestre De Sousa has been on fine form since returning from Hong Kong and always catches the eye on board.

    Palmar Bay had a nice two-year-old season, winning twice and placed twice. He hasn’t seemed to handle the step up to seven furlongs, so the drop back to six will be a big positive. Again, he’s been dropped three pounds on conditions he will relish. He can also go forward on his side of the draw, and on soft ground might not be caught either. 14/1 (General).

     

    Scots Aren’t Soft

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    3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Hamish @ 10/11 (William Hill, Betfred)

    If there’s one horse you want to win over a mile-and-a-half and on soft ground. Call on Hamish. Coming off the back of an admirable run at Epsom, he’s back in more comfortable surroundings with a possible eye to the King George at the end of the month. Giavellotto steps down in trip, which could be a hindrance with a penalty on board and Arrest is far too inconsistent to consider so Hamish is the answer

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: No Real Surprise

    Four To Follow: No Real Surprise

    We’re on a Group One roll at the moment, with the Irish Derby and Royal Ascot behind us. We now focus on Sandown and the Eclipse, won by greats like Sea The Stars and Golden Horn. Can a certain City Of Troy add his name to the roster, or is there a surprise in store? Find out in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Dreaming Of Winners

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    1:50 – Charge Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Live In The Dream @ 3/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    When you’re rated six pounds better than the rest, you’re expected to perform. And Live In The Dream is bound to do that today. He had an excuse at Haydock last time out after stumbling out of the stalls and was closing in on Kerdos in the Temple Stakes. Eyes may be on a retaining the Nunthorpe and this is a decent warm-up, particularly with a good outside draw.

    To finish in behind, Purosangue is back to a level he can perform at. He’s coming back from a poor showing, but out of his depth, in the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and to a level he can perform at. Good to Firm ground won’t suit him, so the added moisture in the ground is a plus with an outside draw too. 12/1 (General).

     

    No Wooden Surprise

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    3:35 – Eclipse Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 4/11 (William Hill)

    If you think that either Dancing Gemini or Ghostwriter can surprise the Derby winner, you’re wrong. This has to be one of the weakest renewals of a prestigious Group One, you’d expect City Of Troy to win on the bridle. With the International Stakes and a possible Breeders’ Cup challenge in sight, there’s more challenging races to come.

     

    Haydock

    Sir Mark’s Superstar

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    2:40 – Lancashire Oaks (Group Two) – Tiffany @ 9/4 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Tiffany is rightly favourite for this race, after her dominant win in last week’s Hopping’s Fillies Stakes. Going down the classic Sir Mark Prescott route, she was a handicapper last year before dominantly winning two Listed contests, then last week at Newcastle. Only three years ago Prescott won this race with Alpinista, and Tiffany aims to sparkle in her footsteps.

    Forest Fairy also deserves a shout in her first race back after the Oaks. She never ran a bad race at Lingfield, but just didn’t suit Epsom. On a flatter track, with plenty of allowances on her back, Forest Fairy may be able to conjure something up at 17/2 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Chilly In July?

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    3:15 – Old Newton Cup Handicap – Chillingham @ 7/1 (William Hill)

    This is always a very competitive handicap at this time of year. Chillingham is the pick for me in this year’s contest. He ran well last time out at York, despite the big margin between him and the top two. However, he’s still on a respectable mark, ground conditions will no doubt favour him and he can make haste from a wide draw over a mile-and-a-half.

    Maghlaak is an incredibly well-bred horse and shouldn’t have been the plan to go handicapping at first. However, this half brother to Mutanasseq has been well-raced and won earlier on this season before a poor showing at Redcar. But he now has first time blinkers on and hopefully Saffie Osborne can be quick out of the gates to get some cover. Low in the handicap and a little overlooked at 12/1 (General).

    Flash Bardot also won earlier on this season, and is back down to a respectable weight, two pounds above his last winning mark with a claimer on board. He’s been denied some clear runs in his next couple of starts and maybe a low weight in a big field handicap, plus a wide draw will help his chances. Long shot surprise at 25/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Northumberland Plate Day Tips | Catch if you can

    Northumberland Plate Day Tips | Catch if you can

    We are on the other side of Royal Ascot 2024 as the Northumberland Plate up at Newcastle takes centre stage.

    Firstly, I’ll quickly review Ascot from both a racing fan perspective and with my Bestofbets.com-tinted glasses on.

    Without trying to re-cover too many things, the meeting was a strong event to show to the wider public.

    The racing was great, the areas around the track for social gatherings felt busy but not cramped, and the races themselves felt like prestigious events due to the prize money on offer and the number of participants.

    As shop windows to wider society go, the royal meeting did well above what was required of it, and the fact a few non-racing celebrities who resonate with a younger audience attended and posted about it on their social media (notably KSI from the Sidemen) is brilliant to see.

    As for this column, we clawed in 23.5pts of profit from 44.5pts staked at an ROI of +52.80.

    Of course, good form and bad form crop up at random points throughout the season, but we certainly found some good selections through Royal Ascot, so hopefully that positive form continues.

     

    2:04 Newcastle – Spycatcher @ 5/1 with William Hill – 2pts Win

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    The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes has an interesting profile this year and two horses have solid Group 1 form already in the book, though it’s the bigger-priced one of the pair – Spycatcher – that I’m siding with.

    Kinross has the best form in the book based on his third to Shaquille in the July Cup and all of his Group 1/2 wins, but today is his first start for 252 days.

    For a horse priced up at 3/1, that puts me off considering he is 0/3 in races after a 200-day+ break.

    As for Spycatcher, he nearly won this race last year but found the talented Tiber Flow too good, and I wonder whether he hit the front half-a-furlong too soon as his effort in the final few strides didn’t look the strongest.

    Since then, the six-year-old by Vadamos has bolted up in a Group 3 at Deauville and finished third in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint.

    That form looks solid as the fourth, Swingalong, finished second in last week’s Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.

    Furthermore, when connections tried him over seven furlongs in the Group 2 Park Stakes, he performed admirably behind Sandrine and Audience, the later of which went on to win the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes this season.

    With two runs under his belt this season, one can imagine that connections have targeted him for this race and he picked up a win on the all-weather in 2022, so his form on the surface is solid.

     

    2:15 Newmarket – Teej A @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    If Teej A wins today’s Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes, she will become one of my favourite horses in training as it’s hard to knock her attitude at this young age.

    The two-year-old Mehmas filly has an obvious piece of form in the book from Chester that makes her appealing in this company as she beat Rashabar, last week’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner, by two-and-a-quarter lengths.

    A few of Rashabar’s connections believed they should have won at Chester if he was better drawn, and while that is a fair comment, Teej A still delivered an impressive performance.

    He did something similar at Epsom to win the Woodcote Stakes as Clifford Lee sauntered to the head of affairs and kicked clear with a furlong to go.

    Interestingly, Lee didn’t use his whip once at Chester and didn’t use it in the final half-a-furlong at Epsom, suggesting that connections have yet to get to the bottom of the 52,000gns purchase.

    Of course, the presence of Tales Of The Heart (a 400,000gns purchase) and Arabian Dusk (a 525,000gns purchase) are worries, but Teej A has impressed numerous times this season and I’m not willing to ditch her.

     

    3:30 Curragh – Lumiere Rock @ 17/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    A couple of horses contesting this year’s Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes have form that ties in with Warm Heart, a good yardstick for the division last year, but Lumiere Rock is the one I’m siding with.

    For all that Bluestocking looked impressive in the Group 2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes at York in May, her form with Warm Heart is arguably worse than what Lumiere Rock has in the book.

    Lumiere Rock was ahead of Bluestocking in the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes won by Warm Heart and then she went on to bolt up in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes over the same course and distance as today’s assignment three months later.

    Following a solid third in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day, the four-year-old by Saxon Warrior went to the Breeders’ Cup and produced a career-best effort to finish sixth to Inspiral and Warm Heart.

    With a run under her belt, the conditions of this race (at the Curragh on good ground over 10 furlongs) look perfect for her to run a big race and she is the choice of Dylan Browne McMonagle over stablemate Maxux.

     

    3:40 Newcastle – Raadobarg @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    Amo Racing have a strong hand in the Class 2 0-105 seven-furlong handicap at Newcastle, but Raadobarg has a bit more appeal than Baradar.

    Both horses have the ability to win a race like this, though one would question whether the Bunbury Cup or International Stakes next month is the long-term target for Baradar.

    As for Raadobarg, he is solid Listed/Group 3 horse based on last year’s form as he finished third in five pattern races and a close fifth in the Group 3 Prix Quincey Stakes.

    The winner of that race, Poker Face, was second to Charyn (a subsequent Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes winner) in the Group 2 bet365 Mile at the start of this season, so that looks like solid form.

    As for other bits of form, his third to Chindit on two occasions last year looks solid as Chindit finished second in the 2023 Group 1 Lockinge Stakes.

    If he handles the step back to seven furlongs, this six-year-old by Night Of Thunder could do some danger off a mark of 101.