Premier League matches to consider betting this weekend

This expanded guide complements our original three-match previews with extra analysis, staking guidance and safety advice for bettors looking at Liverpool v Chelsea, Crystal Palace v Newcastle and Arsenal v Manchester United.

Content is for readers aged 18+ only; please gamble responsibly and set limits before placing any bets.

How to approach weekend Premier League betting tips

Treat tips as informed viewpoints rather than guarantees; assess team form, injuries and market value before committing any stake and never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Use bookmaker comparisons to shop for the best price, and consider small, consistent stakes rather than large speculative wagers when markets are tight.

Weekend match previews and expert tips for three fixtures

Three Premier League fixtures to bet on this weekend

With the title race, the scramble for the top four and the relegation fight all still wide open, this season’s Premier League is proving hugely entertaining. BestOfBets previews three of this weekend’s most intriguing games and picks out our top tips and predictions for what lies ahead…

Liverpool vs Chelsea @ 12.30pm, Saturday

Not long ago, this game would have been billed as a clash between two of the Premier League’s heavyweights, both in with a shot of the title. Yet between them, Liverpool and Chelsea have just three wins in their past 10 combined league games; it’s a game between ninth and tenth at Anfield on Saturday lunchtime.

So with the top four slipping away from both teams, and Graham Potter under considerable pressure not to lose another game at Chelsea boss, the draw seems the overwhelming favourite here. At 3/1, you’re getting good odds on it, too. The bookmakers certainly aren’t backing an away win – Chelsea are out at 16/5.

If you fancy new boy Mykhailo Mudryk to bag on his Blues’ debut, he’s 15/1 to grab the first goal, although the safe money is on Darwin Nunez or Mo Salah to break the deadlock (both 5/1).

Our tip: 1-1 draw (6/1)

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle @ 5.30pm, Saturday

Crystal Palace will be buoyed by Michael Olise’s late goal to clinch a draw against in-form Manchester United on Wednesday night, while Newcastle remain firmly in the hunt for the top four thanks to United dropping points. But it means this contest under the Selhurst Park lights on Saturday evening is a difficult one to call.

Both Patrick Vieira and Eddie Howe have made their teams tough to break down, so it’s hard to envisage a high-scoring contest in south London. There’s possibly some value in betting against Newcastle – they’ve failed to win their past two away games – given the draw is appealing, again, at 13/5.

But Palace are inconsistent and Howe’s troops keep finding ways to grind out victories. So a 1-0 win for the Magpies is probably the best bet here.

Our tip: 1-0 Newcastle (11/2)

Arsenal vs Manchester United @ 4.30pm, Sunday

This is the game everyone has been looking forward to all week – and it could have huge ramifications for the title race. United, however, aren’t coming into it with the same level of confidence that many expected following their 2-1 Manchester derby triumph. Their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace and the loss of key man Casemiro due to suspension has put a spanner in the works for Erik ten Hag.

Arsenal are justifiable odds-on favourites at 19/20. They’ve swept aside virtually all that has been in their way this season – with their only defeat being that 3-1 reverse at Old Trafford in September.

Expect the game to follow a similar pattern: fairly open, United playing on the break, Arsenal dominating possession, with Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka likely to star. An entertaining draw is a good bet, but trying to predict the exact score might prove difficult.

Our tip: Draw (3/1)

Form, injuries and team selection matters this weekend

Recent form is not only about wins and losses but also the nature of those performances; examine starting line-ups and substitute impact, noting any players returning from injury who may be eased into games rather than expected to deliver full 90-minute influence.

Suspensions and cup rotations can materially alter value in markets, so check official club reports and press conferences close to kick-off and avoid backing lines before confirming late absences.

Tactical trends and expected goals to consider this week

Expected goals (xG) and shot profiles give a clearer picture than results alone, helping you see which teams are creating high-quality chances and which rely on individual finishing runs, so use xG as a cross-check before placing value bets.

Consider each manager’s tactical game plan — pressing intensity, wing overloads and set-piece strength — and whether the anticipated approach suits the players available on the day.

Market value and smart staking advice for punters

Value betting focuses on identifying odds that are higher than your assessment of the true probability; this requires honest appraisal, tracking prices across bookmakers and remaining disciplined about stake sizing relative to your bank.

Adopt a staking plan that suits your risk tolerance, such as flat stakes for consistency or percentage stakes for bank management, and avoid chasing losses after a poor run.

Checking team news and last-minute changes before bets

Double-check the official team sheets and injury updates within an hour of kick-off, as last-minute changes can swing in-play markets and impact expected line-ups for goalscorer and first scorer markets.

Comparing odds across markets to find fair value bets

Use odds-comparison tools to find the best price — small differences in fractional odds compound over time — and focus on markets you understand rather than chasing exotic bets with limited value.

Responsible gambling reminders and support information

Betting should be entertainment for adults aged 18+ only; set deposit and time limits, and seek help if gambling feels like a problem by contacting support organisations such as GamCare or using bookmaker self-exclusion tools.

How to use bookmaker comparisons and offers safely

Compare free bets and sign-up offers carefully, reading terms and wagering requirements to understand the true value and any restrictions on withdrawals rather than taking headline figures at face value.

Remember offers are optional and should never influence betting beyond your predetermined staking strategy; if you choose to use a promotion, do so in line with your responsible gambling limits.

Tracking odds movements and when to act in markets

Odds movement often reflects market sentiment, injuries or insider news; observe price drift or shortening to determine whether value still exists and avoid placing bets solely on late price action without corroborating evidence.

Where odds shorten markedly and you cannot identify a clear reason, exercise caution and consider waiting for official confirmation from reliable sources before wagering.

Bet types to consider for these specific fixtures

For tight fixtures like Palace v Newcastle, consider low-scoring markets such as under 2.5 goals or both teams to score no, while for open contests like Arsenal v Manchester United you may explore both teams to score and half-time/full-time markets depending on team selection.

First-goalscorer and anytime scorer markets are useful for backing in-form forwards, but these markets are more volatile so limit stakes and favour players with consistent minutes rather than speculative selections.

In-play betting considerations and live market caution

In-play markets move quickly and can offer opportunities if you can react to clear tactical shifts or red cards, but avoid large live stakes as momentum can reverse and liquidity may be limited on some markets.

Use live betting primarily to hedge or add small value positions, and ensure any live activity remains within your pre-set session limits and overall bankroll management plan.

Using statistics sensibly to inform your bets this weekend

Look beyond headline averages by checking context-specific stats such as away scoring trends, set-piece success and defensive errors, which often explain why certain teams perform differently against specific opponents.

Avoid overfitting models to small sample sizes — use season-long trends alongside recent form to strike a reasonable balance when assessing likely outcomes.

Frequently asked questions on weekend betting and offers

What should I consider before placing a Premier League bet?

Consider team form, injuries, suspensions and tactical match-ups, and compare odds across bookmakers to find value while keeping stakes within your bankroll limits; always gamble responsibly and only if aged 18 or over.

How do bookmaker free bets and sign-up offers work?

Free bet offers typically require meeting wagering conditions or a qualifying stake and often exclude certain markets; read the terms before accepting an offer and factor in any playthrough requirements.

Is it sensible to bet on exact scores for big matches?

Exact score markets are high variance and hard to predict; they can be used for small, speculative stakes as part of a broader strategy but shouldn’t form the bulk of your betting activity.

How much should I stake relative to my betting bankroll?

Stake a fixed percentage of your bankroll per bet — commonly 1–5% depending on risk tolerance — and avoid increasing stakes after losses to chase recovery, as this creates undue financial pressure.

Can in‑play betting improve my returns on match days?

In-play betting can offer opportunities when matched with strong observational discipline and quick, evidence-based decisions, but it increases risk and should be limited to small stakes within your plan.

Where can I find trustworthy bookmaker comparisons and odds?

Use reputable comparison tools that list multiple regulated UK bookmakers, check terms and licensing, and prioritise firms that display clear customer protection and responsible gambling options.

What help is available if gambling causes problems for me or someone I know?

If you or someone you know experiences harmful gambling behaviour, seek support from organisations such as GamCare or use bookmaker self-exclusion services; gambling should be for adults aged 18+ only.

You can explore current free bet offers and recommended bookmakers on our free bets page: https://bestofbets.com/free-bets.

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