Best Of Bets

Tag: guineas

  • Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day 5 and Newmarket Guineas Best Bets

    It’s the final day of the Punchestown Festival, a week that has certainly had its fair share of varying results.

    As for yesterday, this column managed to get Brides Hill across the line, though there was a bit of bad luck through Flanking Maneuver and Lifetime Ambition.

    Still, with action from Punchestown and Newmarket to look forward to, let’s dive in.

     

    1:15 Newmarket – Heritage House @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW (3 places)

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    Over in the opener at Newmarket, Heritage House gets the allowances from her elders and she has some nice two-year-old form in the book.

    The three-year-old by Dark Angel is out of Global Light, a half-sister to the top sire Mehmas, and she ran in the Listed Nell Gwyn Stakes last month on her first start at seven furlongs, though she was a bit keen and had a troubled passage through the race.

    The Nell Gywn looks like solid form as she stayed on behind the Guineas-bound Pretty Crystal and Dance Sequence.

    Before that, she finished fourth to Romantic Style (Charlie Appleby’s Night Of Thunder three-year-old who beat Ramatuelle in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence) in the Listed Bosra Sham Fillies’ Stakes, a race that also included Adaay In Devon (rated 100) and Navassa Island.

    With two bits of solid form at Newmarket and race fitness in the book, she looks likely to run a big race.

     

    3:05 Punchestown – Neveradullmoment @ 9/1 with SkyBet (1pt EW) & Bowtogreatness @ 28/1 with Bet365 (0.5pt EW) (6 places)

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    Two horses look likely to hit the frame in the second race at Punchestown, the first of which is Neveradullmoment.

    He’s tried three miles once before and ran a good race but was hampered at the second-last fence, yet he still stayed on.

    The step up to nearly four miles can encourage improvement, and he has form behind Intense Raffles (the Irish Grand National winner) and Where It All Began (Grand National Trial winner) from a novice chase at Fairyhouse in January.

    He was also behind owner-mate Perceval Legallois on chase debut over 2m2f and he has form on ground varying from yielding to heavy.

    As for Bowtogreatness, he’s a slightly sentimental bet, but Ben Pauling has made no secret in the regard that he holds him in.

    Although he disappointed in the Kim Muir, the race came just 18 days after his big run in the Coral Trophy Handicap Chase which was maybe on the sharp side in hindsight.

    Furthermore, although his recent form comes on decent ground, his novice hurdle form came on soft and heavy ground and there’s no reason to suggest he’ll hate any softening in the surface.

    As for his mark, a rating of 130 is very lenient and Ben Pauling wouldn’t bring him to Punchestown for no reason.

     

    4:15 Punchestown – Minella Crooner @ 25/1 with SkyBet – 1pt EW (5 places)

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    Gordon Elliott’s Minella Crooner has always promised to land a big race over fences, and I’m hoping this theory occurs today.

    The eight-year-old finished second in the 2022 Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival behind this year’s Bet365 Gold Cup winner Minella Cocooner.

    He also split Journey With Me and Kilcruit over 2m4f in a maiden hurdle, two pieces of strong form.

    Since trying his hand over fences, he nearly beat Darrens Hope on his debut over the big obstacles (in a Grade 2 novice chase) when receiving weight before beating I Am Maximus, the 2024 Grand National winner, at Fairyhouse.

    As for this season, a victory over Joyeux Machin set a good tone before he was a fast-finishing third to Jungle Boogie (who was running well in the Gold Cup before a mistake at the third-last) and Classic Getaway in the Grade 3 Savills Chase on New Year’s Day.

    Although his last three outings haven’t made for great reading, a return to a sharper three miles around a course he’s always done well at (won a bumper, won a maiden hurdle, and ran well twice over fences) will suit and the recent rain in the last 24 hours will cause no harm as well.

    For a horse of his quality, a mark of 142 is lenient in this field.

     

    4:50 Punchestown – Kargese @ 13/8 with Bet365 – 2pt Win

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    Today is a big day for Paul Townend in his search for the jockeys’ championship, and Kargese looks like one to help him on his journey.

    Although the four-year-old by Jeu St Eloi has raced at the Dublin Racing Festival, Cheltenham, and Aintree, she showed plenty of keenness on her last start which didn’t indicate any chance of her stopping.

    Her form with Majborough and Sir Gino from the two big UK festivals is the best here and I came out of Aintree with serious respect for her ability.

    She gets weight from the geldings, but she is a tough filly and her family tended to handle their races quite well.

     

    5:25 Punchestown – Monbeg Park @ 11/1 with Bet365 – 1pt EW (6 places)

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    Coming into this season, I fancied Monbeg Park to hit the frame at the top level in novice chases, but connections have decided to revert him to hurdles.

    That’s not usually something I’m too keen on, but he didn’t jump with much fluency at Punchestown on his last start and his novice hurdling form is top quality.

    He beat Spillane’s Tower (a subsequent two-time Grade 1 winner) and Uncle Phil (rated 149 over fences) at the Punchestown Festival last year and he was also second to Affordale Fury (the Albert Bartlett runner-up) on his debut over hurdles.

    Having won twice around the track, my theory is connections wouldn’t bring him back this season if he wasn’t spot on because he has had well-documented joint issues in the past.

    Therefore, with a lenient mark of 135, I hope he can outrun his odds.

  • 14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    14/1 Irish Guineas Weekend Fancy: The Top Three

    It’s Irish Guineas weekend and I’m looking forward to the next few days, not just for the action at the Curragh, but some great races from Haydock and York have perked my interest.

    But first, let’s take a look back at last week’s The Top Three article.

    Hands up, I got My Prospero wrong. The return to a mile wasn’t his gig, unfortunately, and the way he stayed on to the line having looked a lost cause at the two-furlong pole suggested to me that he will be tough to beat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    https://twitter.com/simonmilham/status/1659962615441833985

    And as for Loyal Touch, my sole representative in the London Gold Cup after Silver Sword was declared a non-runner, he finished just three lengths off the winner, who looks like a very good horse, in ninth; we didn’t get paid out on the day, but I’ll be keen to keep with him on his next start.

    The two losses put us at a small loss heading into week three on the P&L, but it is early stages and we are down 0.375 to a one-pound level stake.

    Anyway, let’s dive into Irish Guineas weekend with four horses to shout about.

    3:15 Haydock (today) – GET AHEAD at 15/8 with BetUK – 3pt win

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    Kicking off Irish Guineas weekend, I’m with a horse who I have mentioned for Bestofbets.com before and I’m retaining the faith, as well as slightly cheating by putting up a horse for Friday rather than Saturday, but she is my best bet of the weekend so it’s only right to be on this list.

    GET AHEAD was the NAP for me at Newmarket in the Palace House Stakes and having been put up at double-figure odds before shortening to 7/1, the four-year-old went off at 10/1 due to the late rain that dampened her chances.

    Still, only being beaten four lengths by Vadream is not a bad result.

    Fast forward to today and she is set to make a step up in trip to six furlongs and run on the good to firm ground of Haydock, something that is music to my ears.

    I won’t go over her case again in the same detail as I did before, though you can click here to read the explanation from last time out, but it looks like conditions seem to be in her favour today and that step up in trip should suit well on pedigree (she is a half-sister to the Guineas winner Chaldean).

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    She has also shaped like a horse who wouldn’t mind the test of six furlongs son at 7/4, Get Ahead is the best bet of the weekend for me.

    2:40 York (Saturday) – ZARZYNI at 14/1 with BetVictor – 0.5pt EW

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    If Get Ahead makes us proud today, this could have a link to the chances of ZARZYNI in the valuable five-furlong handicap at York tomorrow as Silky Wilkie, the four-year who was ahead of Get Ahead at Newmarket, beat Zarzyni on his last start. That is collateral form, admittedly, but it still counts for something.

    Unfortunately for myself, and others who have had enough of me talking about horse racing, this David & Nicola Barron-trained six-year-old is a cliff horse of mine, however, I think today could be the day to catch him.

    Examining his last run on good to soft, a going description he maybe isn’t the most effective on, he had a horrid run through from the rear of the field and once it opened up, Silky Wilkie was too far gone and Ben Curtis was able to guide him home to finish a staying-on fifth.

    The handicapper kindly dropped him one pound for the run and he rocks up to York on Saturday with an official rating of 96, three pounds below his last winning mark.

    Therefore, with a run under his belt and race fitness hopefully at 100%, the 14/1 for Zarzyni is attractive and is worth the each-way bet at York.

    3:00 Haydock (Saturday) – Little Big Bear at 7/4 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Little Big Bear is the joint-shortest-priced horse I will be backing this weekend and again, he is another whom I have mentioned in a Bestofbets.com article, however, that time it was for the Guineas and tomorrow, he returns to a former-winning distance of six furlongs.

    The run at Newmarket was too bad to be true; he was keen from the start, had to deal with soft ground (which is still a small unknown), was trying a mile for the first time, and he was struck into, something that resulted in him being lame after the race. Pick and choose which excuse you want to use for the Guineas because he does have them, and they are real excuses.

    I’ve seen a few people wonder if the son of No Nay Never has trained on from his superstar two-year-old season, and I see no reason to suggest why he wouldn’t have.

    His dam, Adventure Seeker, only raced as a three-year-old, as did his half-brother American Graffiti, and she won a Listed event in France on her penultimate start.

    Of course, his sire was unbeaten as a juvenile before losing on his first start at three, but he still won the Group 3 Woodford in Keeneland before finishing second in a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, a run that was his career-best performance on RPRs.

    Aidan O’Brien’s European champion two-year-old has already beaten Bradsell, who reappears tomorrow in the Sandy Lane, and there aren’t many others in the contest that would worry me, so I’m hoping that ‘The Bear’ can put in a performance to savour at Haydock tomorrow for the Irish on their Guineas weekend.

    3:30 Haydock (Saturday) – Dramatised at 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt win

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    Remember when we all thought Dramatised was a world-beater after her Royal Ascot win in the Queen Mary?

    Although the form may not be the strongest now, the head-to-head record between Dramatised and The Platinum Queen reads 2-0 in favour of the Karl Burke runner having also beaten tomorrow’s favourite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

    Both times, The Platinum Queen was running off the same weight as the Showcasing filly and both times she was well beaten, so with the now Roger Varian-trained three-year-old set to give five pounds away, I think there is plenty of reason to take her on with Dramatised and hope that the scoreline lengthens by the time Saturday is finished.

    Of course, there are 12 other runners for Dramatised to try and beat, but similarly, they are having to give weight away to a horse that is officially the joint-third highest-rated horse in the contest and I think the angle that she is coming into the race fresh and on the quick ground should suit very well.

    If you can get 5/1 anywhere, the each-way play doesn’t look too bad at all, but I will be siding with the 9/2 available with Betvictor for Dramatised in the Group 2 Temple Stakes as a win bet.

    P&L: -0.375 (after two weeks)

  • 16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    16/1 Irish Guineas Pick: Ante-post analysis

    Well, last week’s ante-post analysis turned out to be a profitable one, something that is always brilliant.

    THE FOXES delivered in the Dante Stakes at 13/2 to put readers in clover with CLARENDON HOUSE just missing out of the places and SILVER SWORD a late non-runner from the London Gold Cup.

    And despite a frustrating week for The Top Three article (more on that this Friday), we are heading full steam ahead into a regular week of good racing on the weekend with the Irish Guineas meeting at the Curragh taking centre stage.

    So, let’s dive into my early ante-post interests.

    O’Brien masterclass… again? 

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    It’s been six years since Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish 2000 Guineas, a stat that comes as a surprise considering the firepower the master of Ballydoyle usually has at his disposal.

    And it’s not like it has been through a lack of trying as the master trainer has sent 18 horses to the one-mile Curragh contest since Churchill’s win in 2017, with the most (6) coming in 2020 and the least (1) occurring last season.

    That stat does make you wonder why O’Brien is sending fewer horses to the first Classic of the Irish Flat season. It could be a change of tactics employed by Ballydoyle to only send ones with winning chances and the drop in regularity of pacemakers in these Group 1 contests over the last few seasons, or the effects of Galileo’s progeny production winding down before he passed away in 2021 could be accountable for this.

    However, it seems like we could see a couple more runners for O’Brien in this year’s renewal with Paddington, Age Of Kings, and Cairo all still in the race at the time of writing (Wednesday), but it is the latter who has caught my eye.

    By Quality Road, a four-time Grade 1 winner in the US at one-mile plus, out of a Galileo mare called Cuff, who won a Listed contest at six furlongs and is a full sister to Mars, Gustav Klimt, and Friendly, Cairo looks to have a pedigree that is promising and should suit the one-mile test well having already won at that trip twice.

    If you can forgive the three-year-old’s last run in the UAE Derby over nine-and-a-half furlongs, his two-length win at Dundalk was one with plenty of promise to build on his impressive victory at the end of last season in the Group 3 Killavullan Stakes.

    The interesting thing about his Dundalk win is that Ryan Moore came over for the ride in early March and has only ever ridden at the track 16 times, winning on 10 of those occasions, so that would potentially suggest that he comes over for the useful horses.

    With all of this brought together, the 12/1 with William Hill is one that looks like a good price to me and I will be backing CAIRO for the Irish 2000 Guineas.

    Able to Silence favourite backers 

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    Although the 2000 Guineas is a tough problem to work out, the Fillies’ equivalent could be cut and dry.

    Tahiyra was second in the Newmarket Guineas to a very good Mawj, pulled a long way clear of the rest, and could theoretically come on for the run.

    So this is simple, right? Well, there could be a bit more under the surface to discover.

    Firstly, she won’t be getting her soft ground conditions that she has received on her last two starts. This isn’t too much of a worry because she won on good to yielding on debut and her pedigree would say that good ground should be fine.

    Secondly, I have a small concern about why she didn’t pass Mawj last time out. She looked for all the world like she would glide by without any hindrance, however, she slightly hung her head into the winner and looked a small bit reluctant to move past.

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    And thirdly, that Guineas was run in attritional conditions and would have been a very, very hard race for a horse who was making their first start for eight months. Having received just a 21-day break, the bounce factor is a possibility.

    Can I see Tahiyra winning? Absolutely. Will I be backing her at 4/7? No, and I have an angle to take her on with.

    I’m going with a similar form line to the odds-on favourite as the ETERNAL SILENCE, third in the Moyglare Stakes behind Dermot Weld’s filly, is an exciting bet at 16/1 with William Hill.

    If you analyse her last run at the Curragh, Shane Foley was keen to drop her to the rear of the pack to try and settle this daughter of War Front into the race.

    That does occur and when she gets a clear route to the finish, Foley kicks for home and finishes best of the rest behind Tahiyra and Meditate, staying on over the seven-furlong trip.

    The step back up to a mile for the Irish 1000 Guineas, a distance she was third over two starts ago, should suit and on pedigree, she should be a better three-year-old as her dam, Princess Highway, won the 2012 Ribblesdale as a three-year-old.

    I’m hoping to see some improvement, which is required, but she looks to have the scope to do so.

    As mentioned on the recent Only Fools Love Horses video, her at 16/1 and Meditate at 7/1 will be the two plays for me, with the case for the latter being a return to front-running tactics and better ground could see her reverse the Newmarket and Curragh form with Tahiyra.

    So, the 4/7 favourite is one I am taking on. Am I making a rod for my own back? Most probably. Do I have an issue with that? No, who doesn’t love taking a bit of an exciting risk?