Best Of Bets

Tag: Glorious Goodwood

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    The Top Three is back in profit!

    Following the success of Random Harvest at 10/3 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes – who was 8/1 when highlighted on last week’s Ante-post Analysis column – and Baradar at 7/1 (with an SP of 16/1) in the International Stakes, the P&L is in profit of 0.435 after taking into account My Prospero’s loss.

    So, with the wind in our sails, here are my bets for Glorious Goodwood Day 1.

     

    3:25 Goodwood – Iberian @ 13/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    The first fancy of the day comes in the opening Group race at Glorious Goodwood and it is IBERIAN under champion jockey William Buick that has grabbed my interest.

    Two-year-old contests at this time of the year can be tough to work out due to experienced juveniles meeting unexposed rivals who could be anything, and in today’s Vintage Stakes, the once-raced Lope De Vega colt is the one I’m siding with.

    Having won impressively at Newbury last time out, only two of the 12 rivals behind him that day have come out and won since, something that is a worrying statistic, however, the manner in which he powered away from the field should still hold merit.

    Furthermore, although he was a non-runner on the weekend due to unsuitable ground, I wouldn’t be too concerned about slower conditions as Lope De Vega’s are usually ground-versatile and his dam, Bella Estrella, was a winner on yielding as a three-year-old.

    In a not-so Vintage Stakes, this 200,000GNS purchase from the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale is well regarded within his yard and holds plenty of interest at a nice price.

     

    4:00 Goodwood – Isaac Shelby @ 11/4 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Directly following the first Group race for two-year-olds is the Lennox Stakes and Brian Meehan’s ISAAC SHELBY is the one I’ll be siding with.

    The Night Of Thunder colt has been a consistent type this season thanks to his win on soft ground in the Greenham Stakes first time out, his second in the French Guineas behind Marhaba Ya Sanafi, and fourth in a competitive renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    All three of those runs look to be the best form on display in this contest and the three-year-old will receive a six-pound weight-for-age allowance against his elders which has him best at the weights on official ratings.

    Although one would have to respect last year’s runner-up, Kinross, at the top of the market, I’ve been slightly underwhelmed by his runs so far this season and personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing him on a better surface.

    Therefore, defending the honour of the three-year-olds, I’m hoping that Isaac Shelby can put in a blinder in the Lennox.

     

    5:05 Goodwood – Stormy Sea @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, in the penultimate contest of the day, the well-bred STORMY SEA will carry my money going into the 19-strong fillies’ handicap.

    Firstly, the second-favourite, Rowayeh, is one who should be feared as the form of his victory over Mystic Pearl at Sandown last month has been franked with the runner-up winning the Listed Coral Distaff next time out.

    However, with the slightly softer ground on the agenda today, I’m preferring to side with the half-sister to Bay Bridge who should handle any give in the ground.

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    Firstly, her Group 1-winning relation has his best form on soft ground – as shown by his win in the 2022 Group 1 Champion Stakes – so the official going description of good to soft, good in places, will suit.

    Secondly, if you can ignore her run last time out in Listed company, her success on seasonal reappearance at Haydock was visually very impressive and the second, Lmay, has since won a maiden and finished fourth in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

    All in all, Stormy Sea has plenty on her side today and on a tough day of punting, she would be the NAP.

  • Qatar Goodwood Festival 2023 | The outsider betting

     

    Having examined the favourites for the week, how about some Glorious Goodwood outsider betting?

    With over half the 37 races on the card holding 15+ runners, there is ample opportunity for punters to find a big winner.

    So, just who is on BestofBets’ outsider betting radar?

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    The Champ weighs in – 20/1 BetVictor

    We begin with race number three of the week, the Coral Chesterfield Cup and have our beady eye on Marhaba The Champ.

    A record of two wins in seven for trainer Kevin Ryan is not so shabby and in the right conditions, the winner of the Knights Solicitors at the Dante Meeting could have his day once more.

    Sixth in the Betfred Handicap on Derby Weekend, the eye-catching rap sheet of the British colt is that one win came on the good to soft in September of last year.

    A 10/1 price in his last win in beating Marie’s Diamond, Marhaba is most comfortable over 1m1f, but with a furlong more on the trip has in the past made an impression.

    Double the price in the early going, there is no reason to suggest his chances are any lesser.

    Indeed, if the chips fall, Marhaba, could again be, The Champ.

     

    Armed and ready – 25/1 BetUK

    Jumping next to Wednesday’s Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes, we are going somewhat out of our comfort zone, we admit, but Sydneyarms Chelsea has bipped onto the radar.

    In what will be the filly’s first run of the season for Charlie Hills, we turn to her record on the good to soft as evidence for an educated punt.

    Fifth last time out way back in September 2022, on her debut season, both Ryan Moore and William Buick rode her to winners at Newbury and Deauville.

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    A girl who likes the ground a tad softer, that is exactly what she should get at Goodwood this week.

    On paper, this might seem a real punt, but having placed in all five contests, maybe, just maybe, Sydneyarms Chelsea won’t be singing The Blues; far from it.

     

    Oh, Jackie – 33/1 William Hill

    Our third dart looks to the Nassau Stakes and though this is some considerable step-up in quality, Jackie Oh may be ready to lay it down.

    Returning to winning ways at Gowran this past weekend, the 3yo made it two wins as a debutante victor at Naas in March.

    Her only British outing at Royal Ascot saw a 20th in the Sandringham and may explain her bottom-of-the-barrel status in this particular race, but is that the true story?

    There are indicators that Jackie digs the mud, and though Goodwood is unlikely to be a bog, a soft feel underfoot will more than suit.

    Aside from coming here with a win – in the soft, no less – Jackie Oh’s curtain-raiser was on heavy ground; that was followed by a runner-up on similar going.

    Granted, her win in Ireland can be taken with a pinch of salt, but any horse good enough for Aidan O’Brien is good enough for us.

    And, as we always say, never overlook a horse arriving with winning form to a major festival.

     

    Taca chance – 16/1 BetUK

    In Friday’s Coral Golden Mile, the Class 2 race for 4yos+ will likely be the biggest field of the week and therefore, finding a winner is quite the task.

    Tacarib Bay may, however, present a decent punt for our final outsider betting punt.

    Despite being only 4yo, Richard Hannon’s ride feels like something of a journeyman.

    With just two wins in 16 races under rules, a last win came over a year ago last summer at Haydock, however that was on the soft – conditions which, as documented, may shape the week.

    Since then, Tacarib Bay has been runner-up twice but having been gelded in May, returned to action this past weekend in the Moet & Chandon.

    As Baradar went on to take the winning post, if we study the evidence above, Tacarib Bay was game over 6f and faded, but there is enough to suggest post-op, of a showing now in the tank.

    Watch for a late move; if his legs are there for the trip, it’s game on.

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day One

    What a Saturday for Four To Follow.

    Three winners, at big prices, it couldn’t have gone much better. It sets up a fantastic week for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival, a midsummer’s treat.

    Here are four to look out for from both sides of the Irish Sea.

     

    Goodwood

    Hot Hot Hot

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    3:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – Iberian @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Vintage Stakes is always throwing up some useful two-year-olds.

    Highland Reel, Expert Eye and Pinatubo have all won this race in recent years. But the best thing is not one outfit has dominated the race, which makes the betting heat wide open.

    I’ve chosen Iberian because I liked what I saw when he won on debut, travelling smartly to the two pole when everyone around him was being hurried, and looked very professional.

    Charlie Hills isn’t going well at the moment, but he seems to have a knack with his two-year-olds, who have delivered a £27.50 profit to a £1 stake. The horse itself is out of Lope De Vega, so shouldn’t have a problem getting the seven furlong trip.

     

    Keen On Ross

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    4:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 5/4 (General)

    I love Kinross. I loved him at the back-end of last season when he won three seven-furlong races on the spin. It is his true trip.

    He won the Lennox two years ago, fending off Creative Force by a neck, on soft ground. He then got chinned himself when losing to Sandrine last year on good ground.

    With the ground expected to be soft, and Frankie on board, I’m expecting another big performance from Kinross, and maybe we might see a repeat of last year’s feat.

     

    Don’t Rane On His Parade

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    4:35 – Goodwood Cup (Group One) – Coltrane @ 10/3 (Unibet)

    Courage Mon Amis was extremely impressive at Royal Ascot. Extremely impressive.

    He’s unbeaten and is ridden and trained by that familiar partnership of Dettori and Gosden. He’s also won at Goodwood this season in preparation for the Gold Cup.

    Why am I against him? Purely on experience and ground. He’s 4/4 and, like the Gold Cup, he’s up against some experienced rivals.

    Coltrane is his nearest challenger and just couldn’t produce over the 2m 4F trip last time out. This time it’s a fairer two-mile trip and Coltrane loves a bit of juice. It’s hard to know what the favourite likes as his two wins on turf have come on good-to-firm ground. Coltrane represents far better value, and can finally show off his Group One potential.

    To follow him in, I’m expecting Giavelloto to be up there. Marco Botti deliberately avoided the Gold Cup and has decided to come here. He’s versatile with the ground, so that’s not a problem and Andrea Atzeni is no jockey to be sniffed at, given his two wins on Stardivarius here.

    He won the Yorkshire Cup, which is always a good early season test, and that little loinger lay-off will have him in good nick for the contest. 14/1 (William Hill) is a perfect price.

     

    Galway

    A Nice Cup For Joe

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    6:40 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile (Premier H’cap) – Joe Masseria @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    The first big highlight of the Galway Festival is the mile handicap, which is 1m 123yds.

    Last year’s winner, Soaring Monarch is rightly at the top of the betting for being set up for this race again, but I’ve decided to go down a more active route.

    Joe Masseria is a soft ground specialist and a Galway C&D winner. He finished third on yielding ground, but that was after a break of the track since the early spring. It was a good set up for this race which looks tailor-made for him. Colin Keane is back on board, and he has a 2/3 record aboard him so looks set for another big performance.

    Gavin Cromwell has a runner in the race that looks as though he has been targeted since the end of the jumps season. Mister Wilson is a C&D winner and also loves the soft ground. A mark of 83 shouldn’t trouble him at all, after narrowly losing to twice winner of the Mile handicap Saltonstall, at Tipperary. He looks a big price at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    And it wouldn’t be an Irish premier handicap without a battalion of Adrian McGuinness’ taking up nearly half the field.

    Celtic Crown catches the eye with claimer James Ryan aboard, who has a 12% strike rate which isn’t bad for a jockey with a seven-pound allowance. That takes his mark down to 84, which is a big winning mark for after he won the Emerald Mile at the Curragh in 2022 off the same mark.

    Conditions might suit, although if the ground stays heavy on the West Coast of Ireland, be wary. Small stakes at 22/1 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Qatar Goodwood Festival 2023: The favourites

     

    Royal Ascot, done. July Festival, in the books. It’s time for Glorious Goodwood!

    As flat season enters August, hot on the heels of an all-time classic King George VI renewal at Ascot, this week, West Sussex gets its turn in the spotlight.

    With five days of action and 37 races on the card, three Group 1 contests are on the slate.

    But just where will the money be this week?

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    Brit Courage – 5/2 Betfred

    In the opening day’s main event, the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup takes the spotlight and Courage Mon Ami is the bookies’ favourite.

    But only just.

    Now unbeaten in four, the 4yo gelding sprung a relative upset to win the Ascot Gold Cup at 15/2, edging Coltrane by just under a length.

    The latter was fourth in this contest last year – behind the still absent Kyprios – and the duo lock horns once more over the shorter trip.

    Perhaps the only slight caveat this week for the mount of Frankie Dettori lies in this summer’s unpredictable weather.

    Ascot’s turf this past weekend had a little more juice in it, but was still close to good to soft and will likely be for the off on Tuesday.

    Courage Mon Ami’s two wins since gelding have both been on firmer ground – including at Goodwood in May.

    In conclusion, Coltrane and potentially Eldar Eldarov could push, but this contender should have enough courage, my friend.

     

    Perfect Paddington – 8/15 William Hill

    Never mind marmalade sandwiches, it’s been caviar on a plate from the magical Paddington.

    The 3yo goes for an astonishing seventh win in-a-row in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes.

    Unbeaten since an Ascot debut last September, Aidan O’Brien’s colt has become the toast of Ballymore.

    Such is the calibre of the son of Siyouni, Paddington is no one-trick pony; he’s won in all conditions.

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    His last outing on the softer turf saw victory in the Coolmore at the Curragh at the start of May, and though amongst stronger company looks the overwhelming favourite.

    Indeed, perhaps only Inspiral – Frankie’s other main hope this week – could hold a candle.

    The only question now is, just when might his winning streak end?

    At 2/5, that is unlikely to be this week; Paddington is poised to make it super seven.

     

    GNashing of teeth – 2/1 BoyleSports

    Moving on, Nashwa then looks to become the first horse since Midday to defend the Nassau Stakes.

    Storming back to victory in last month’s Falmouth Stakes, Hollie Doyle rode the filly’s first win since that last trip to Goodwood 12 months back.

    Fending off Richard Hannon’s whopping 40/1 shot Aristia, rain might be a slight concern for John and Thady Gosden.

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    However, Nashwa still has a decent record in said conditions, with a win in France last summer.

    The youngster’s main challenge looks to come from the unbeaten-in-five Blue Rose Cen.

    It is worth considering though, having not run since late June, all five wins for the Irish girl have been on French soil.

    And, with the bit between her teeth, we’re anticipating another gutsy outing from Nashwa.

     

    Prancing Princess – 11/8 William Hill

    As we complete our look at the big names, is this finally the week Highfield Princess re-asserts her authority?

    Lining up in the King George Qatar Stakes, the Yorkshire-based French wonder is yet to win this season, but the effort is there.

    Putting on a much-improved showing in this year’s Jubilee Stakes, the Princess was nonetheless forced to watch Khaadem romp to a stunning victory.

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    Before that, runners-up in the Kings Stand and the Clipper Stakes at York have come this season but so far, the pieces have not quite fallen.

    That could be about to change at Goodwood.

    Having been third in the 2021 Whispering Oak, her last win came on the soft at the Curragh last September.

    Over the same 5f trip, Highfield Princess is currently a full 7pts up in the markets over her rivals.

    Following on from a decent weekend at Ascot for Jason Hart, this will surely be the return to winning ways for this glorious mare.