Best Of Bets

Tag: four to follow

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    And we’re off with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. After all the hype could we finally see City Of Troy become a world beater or will Rosallion, quotes as one of the best Richard Hannon has trained, snatch victory. Plus a terrific undercard too. It’s a two-parter Newmarket Guineas Four to Follow.

     

    The Classic Chairman

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    1:45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage) – Chairmanoftheboard @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Being at least a pound well in a handicap like this can make all the difference. And that is what exactly Chairmanoftheboard is. He was only beaten by a head at the Craven meeting and hasn’t moved off his mark of 86. Surely with the downpour everyone has had in the country has hit Newmarket too and should have enough dig to have his preferred ground and will have a good go at this.

    An interesting quote from Richard Hannon about this horse is “The more trouble he gets in the better.” Mums Tipple didn’t have that much of a successful season last year, with only a win at Chelmsford in March. However, his all-weather mark and turf mark are five pounds apart, with the turf mark more appealing. Plus he seems to act well at the start of the season as well, so should go near at 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

    It’s also worth giving a mention at a big price for Desert Cop. He’s been dropped a full ten pounds from his last turf appearance in the Ayr Gold Cup. He was last seen finishing last whilst finishing top weight at Kempton and the significant drop might signal some improvement from a horse who’s won early on in the season before. 22/1 (General).

     

    Catch A Dutchman

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    2:20 – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Dutch Decoy @ 15/2 (General)

    For a horse who finished within a neck last time out and is a pound well in on the handicap, it’s hard to figure out why Dutch Decoy is the price that he is. He’s higher in the weights than last year, but not by much showing that he is an improving horse. Johnston horses love to make the running and with everything in favour for Dutch Decoy, most will be playing catch me if you can.

    Majestic is a big Newmarket lover. A winner of the Cambridgeshire, he didn’t exactly follow up but put in a good shift at the start of last season in this race. He returns at a lower mark and conditions should be in his favour. He was only beaten a length into fifth last time out at the Craven meeting so he should be in and around the finish according to the handicapper. 9/1 (William Hill).

    If there’s one jockey that everyone should take note of, it’s Saffie Osborne. A hugely talented rider, and she gets the leg up on Mustazeed. A horse who, last season, began really well. However, he’s been on a mark of 88 for a while and has only come down after a poor performance at the end of last season. His last win came on good ground so conditions may suit for a big run. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Mit-Baah Humbug

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    2:55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group Three) – Mitbaahy @ 100/30 (Unibet)

    Three-year-olds don’t have a great record early on in the Palace House so I’ve looked to the more experienced type. Mitbaahy wasn’t too far away in the Abernant during the Craven meeting, and sometimes needs a run before he needs to be considered. Whilst not a Group One horse, he’s certainly a horse who can act at this level.

     

    Definitely Not Wooden

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    2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 8/11 (William Hill, Unibet)

    If there’s one horse that everyone has been waiting for this flat season, it’s City Of Troy. Everyone has waited for this horse to compete in the Guineas after his win in the Dewhurst Stakes, often a great pointer to this race. Rosallion does have good form behind him, but City Of Troy has rather better.

    Alyanaabi finished second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst and has his form boosted by Boiling Point, from the Tattersalls Stakes, winning yesterday at Newmarket. He’s bred by Too Darn Hot, which means he will certainly get a mile. It may be a question of ground after winning twice on firmer surfaces. But Shadwell usually gets their breeding right. 18/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Final Fling

    Four To Follow: Final Fling

    It’s the final day of the jumps season and what a season it has been. We’ve seen plenty awesome performances, storylines and shocks and it all ends today. History can be created with Willie Mullins top of the UK trainers championship, whilst Harry Cobden managed to wrap up the jockeys championship yesterday. But we focus on the big races at Sandown for today’s four to follow.

     

    We’re All Playing It

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    2:25 – Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) – Easy Game @ 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    This is an incredibly tricky race. The Real Whacker has had a bad season and hasn’t looked himself; Hitman has only won three times in his career and the rest look a little out of depth. Only Easy Game takes the eye for me.

    He loves good ground, and he seems to go better right-handed in Ireland, which will suit him at Sandown. He was disappointing at Sandown, always behind the pace and never responding. With better ground and a better suited track, Easy Game can make a big impression.

     

    Final Celebration

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    3:00 – Celebration Chase (GRADE ONE) – Jonbon @ 2/1 (General)

    You can pick holes in both the favourites, but El Fabiolo wasn’t at his best at all at Cheltenham and his jumping has never been the best either. Jonbon comes in off a win over further at Aintree and defending his title in the final Grade One of the season and the market seems to favour the former. With the course experience, Jonbon should be able to find more, jumping-wise, against El Fabiolo.

     

    Long Time, No See

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    3:35 – bet365 Gold Cup (Premier Handicap Chase) – Le Milos @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    The last time we saw Le Milos over fences was in the 2023 Grand National. The 2022 Coral Gold Cup winner hasn’t seen a fence this season, but it’s not like he was bad at jumping over the bigger obstacles. This seems another master plot job by the Skelton boys for the final big handicap of the season.

    He’s been dropped three pounds over fences, which only puts him three pounds above his Coral Gold Cup winning mark. He won that race on good ground so will love the conditions. And he’s one for one at Sandown after winning a novice hurdle here back in 2019.

    Annual Invictus, along with every horse in the Kim Muir, was struggling when Inothewayurthinkin turned on the taps. He could’ve finished a little higher in the field had it not been for a bad hamper at the fifth last. But with the first horse backing up the form and the second horse, Git Maker, finishing third in the Scottish National, 16/1 (General) doesn’t seem a bad each-way bet.

    Sam Brown, despite being one of the elders of the field, is four pounds well-in the handicap. He ran a cracker of a race at Aintree and hasn’t done much wrong in the latter stage of this season. He remains on the same mark and can run a race at a big price on ground he likes. 22/1 (General).

     

    This Time, You Shall Not Passe

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    Select Hurdle (Grade Two) – Impaire Et Passe @ 5/4 (William Hill)

    Two of the first three of THAT Aintree Hurdle reoppose here. There were arguments galore about who should’ve won the race, but ultimately it went to Impaire Et Passe. This middle-distance trip seems to suit him, and they’re not many of these level weight races around so be sure when he turns up. Langer Dan ran really well last time out, but that might have taken too much out of him.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Four To Follow: Do Us Ayr Favour

    Three Nationals on the bounce, from Ireland to Aintree and now Ayr. It’s all gearing up to be a fantastic seven days in the trainers’ championship, with Willie Mullins going all out to win the title after success in Liverpool. But now we’re in the seasonal period where the jumps criss-crosses with the flat, so we’re treated to two cracking cards today. Let’s see who makes the cut.

     

    Ayr

    Fortune In Our Favour

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    2:25 – Scottish Champion Hurdle (Grade Two) – Favour And Fortune @ 11/2 (Boylesports)

    Favour And Fortune was last seen finishing sixth in the Supreme at Cheltenham, a race which was been boosted heavily thanks to a one-two from Mystical Power and Firefox at Aintree. Favour And Fortune also finished second in a Grade One at Aintree back on Boxing Day. However, he’ll like the ground and is weighted fairly, alongside the Pertemps winner L’Eau Du Sud. He’s got something’s in his favour in a hot contest.

    With it being a limited handicap, some at a bigger price may make appeal. Afadil is one. A consistent performer for Paul Nicholls, he easily won the Scottish County Hurdle in February. The he finished fifth in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham and was third last week at Aintree. He remains on the same mark and as a result, comes to Ayr in the lower order of the weights. Nice each-way play, 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

    Petit Tonnerre has been going chasing this season but didn’t work out for him and was hastily put over hurdles in the County, finishing one from the rear. For that performance, he’s been dropped four pounds, three pounds below his last winning hurdles mark. He was placed at this level last season and has every right to turn around a sharp drop. 20/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

     

    Git Making Us Rich

    3:35 – Scottish Grand National (Premier Handicap) – Git Maker @ 7/1 (General)

    Jamie Snowden has been actively prepping Git Maker for Ayr’s premier race. A stayer of some quality, he completed a hattrick of wins at the start of the season. He bounced back to form at the Festival when eight lengths behind Inothewayurthinkin, who impressed at Aintree, boosting the form. He also is unbeaten in Spring, with just two start in April and May, so will go well at this time year.

    My Silver Lining has been nothing short of impressive this season, never dropping outside the top three finish. Since his win at Warwick, he’s produced two gutsy performances on testing ground in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and in the Midlands Grand National. The Midlands National is often a precursor to this race and has only been raised two pounds. Ultra consistent, he shouldn’t be too far away from the frame. Each-way at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Ontheropes makes a little appeal for me. He hasn’t had a great time coming back from a long break, pulling up twice and finishing midfield last time out. However, he has dropped to a mark of 141 which was his last winning mark back in the 2021 Munster National. A lot has happened since then, but he is a proven stayer with a fourth in the 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy (now Coral Gold Cup) to back it up. Ayr could be the track where we see him at his best. He might not look to have a chance, but never write off any Mullins horse. Long-shot at 50/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Call Up The Army

    2:40 – Greenham Stakes (Group Two) – Army Ethos @ 15/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being bred by sprinters; Army Ethos did look as though he could go a bit further when finishing second in the Coventry at Ascot. Trainer Archie Watson had big hopes, with the Prix Morny or Prix Robert-Papin in his sights. Sadly, we didn’t see him again until he finished a little weaker than most though up at Newcastle. But the Coventry form is looking brilliant now, with Haatem winning the Craven, who Army Ethos beat. Everything points to improvement with this horse.

     

    A Winning Ticket

    Spring Cup Handicap – Thunder Ball @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    A trend with Thunder Ball is that he seems to go well after his first run after a break. And that’s what today is. After a decent enough finish in the Lincoln, he looks to go a bit better on good-to-soft ground, which he likes. He stays at his mark of 101, with Alec Voikhansky taking off five pounds. He improved a lot last season and will make a nice handicapper throughout this season.

    Racingbreaks Ryder is another who goes well in the Spring with his only win of the season last year coming in May. He then never impressed in any other handicaps, but is now down to a likeable mark. He’s only one above last year’s winning mark, which makes him appealing at 18/1 (BetUK).

    Alpha Crucis is another that goes well at the start of the season. A winner at Windsor last April saw her book end it with a win at Goodwood in October. She had a good run in the Lincoln, finishing fourth which the handicapper has dropped her a pound for. He comes into this race at the very bottom of the weights, further enhanced with Anna Gibson taking a further seven pounds off. Every right to run well at 22/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four to Follow: Irish National special

    Four to Follow: Irish National special

    Racing has been hooked on the actions happening at Fairyhouse this weekend, and it all comes to a climax when Easter Monday signals the return of the Irish Grand National. Legends like Fortria, Arkle, Desert Orchid and Bobbyjo have graced the winner’s enclosure of Ireland’s National race. Who will add their name to the roster today?

     

    Spring Chickens

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    2:40 – O’Driscoll’s Irish Whiskey Juvenile Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ndaawi @ 2/1 (General)

    It’s not a race that throws up the next big thing in the juvenile division, but it’s a competitive race, nonetheless. Bottler’secret has only had the one run, with the form untested, which leads me to go down the more experienced route.

    Usually, good performing losers of the Boodles at Cheltenham arrive here and Ndaawi is certainly one. He finished a good third to Lark In The Mornin and wasn’t disgraced finishing within three lengths of the winner whilst carrying the second-top weight. Now back on levels Ndaawi can show his class and make a possible claim for the juvenile race at Punchestown at the end of the month.

     

    Devil’s In The Detail

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    3:50 – Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Hurdle (Grade Two) – Thedevilscoachman @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    With the ground heavy, I can’t be having Zarak The Brave. He was underwhelming in the Champion Hurdle on heavy ground and has rarely acted on it. Meanwhile, Thedevilscoachman has been chasing, but has recently switched back to hurdling. He didn’t seem to handle the trip over three miles so stepping back to two-and-a-half will suit him better. Plus, his run behind Sir Gerhard was backed up yesterday and can see him back to winning ways.

     

    Call The Priest

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    4:20 – McInerney Properties Fairyhouse Chase (Grade Two) – Saint Sam @ Evs (General)

    Back from an elongated break, Saint Sam pulled off an incredible win over fences, thrashing Riviere D’Etel by eight-and-a-half lengths. Looking at the field he’s up against today, I can envisage a similar dominant performance. Appreciate It missed the Festival and has never looked himself over fences. Fil Dor was extremely poor when stepped up in trip in the Ryanair and Journey With Me was disappointing on seasonal reappearance.

     

    The Irish Grand National

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    5:00 – Boylesports Irish Grand National (Grade Three) – Where It All Began @ 10/1 (General)

    Where It All Began has been on my books since his win in the trial in February. His run in the Kim Muir may have seemed disappointing, but he was bumped at the second last and the 26 lengths is a bit of an exaggeration. His preference for heavy ground will help him massively and he looks well treated staying on the same mark as he was in the Kim Muir. This race looks to have been the plan for him all season.

    Yeah Man has had a stellar season over in the UK. He beat My Silver Lining up at Haydock in the Grand National Trial on heavy ground but seems to be versatile as he was down three-quarters of a length to Vicctorino at Ascot on good ground. A seven-pound rise in the weights may seem steep, but he looks to be improving with every race. Solid shout at 9/1 (General).

    Novices have a good record in recent years and Senior Chief has been on the improve over the bigger obstacles. He beat Duffle Coat by three-quarters of a length breaking his maiden last time out. But the form from his run in November has worked out a treat. Gaelic Warrior has won the Arkle and Inothewayurthinkin bolted up in the Kim Muir. With form like that he’s a great chance of finishing in the frame. 11/1 (BetUK).

    Street Value has disappointed in recent runs, pulling up twice. However, he won the Porterstown over C&D back in December and as a result he’s only five pounds higher than that run. He’s a good record on heavy ground, despite his last two runs, and the Irish National has a tendency to throw up some big priced winners. Worth a shout at 33/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four to Follow: Dubai calling

    Four to Follow: Dubai calling

    As we await the start of the Turf season back in the UK, the legendary Dubai World Cup meeting is back. Plenty of challengers from all over the world come to Meydan to claim the historic prizes on offer. Here we look at the big turf races and the main event itself.

     

    No Frost In Dubai

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    1:15 – Al Quoz Sprint (Group One) – Frost At Dawn @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    This is possibly the hardest race to predict of the meeting. The key factor is winning at Meydan, whatever the level, and Frost At Dawn matches the description.

    Trained by William Knight, Frost At Dawn has spent the winter in Dubai performing very well winning one and placing in a couple more. He was a dominant winner last time out by two-and-a-half lengths and puts the three-year-old in a good position. as three-year-olds don’t have a great record in the race. But he’s far better value than the current favourite Star Of Mystery.

     

    Luck For Luxembourg

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    3:10 – Dubai Turf (Group One) – Luxembourg @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Despite not winning a race since last May, Luxembourg has never been disgraced in defeat. His last three runs have him beaten only by two-and-a-quarter lengths and has been extremely unlucky. On paper, it looks like a very winnable race for a horse who has been unlucky in the past few races.

    Voyage Bubble ran a cracker of race in Hong Kong against Romantic Warrior, only beaten by neck on the line. He won the Stewards’ Cup at Sha Tin over a mile earlier in the season and the extra furlong won’t be a problem. He has handled step up to a mile-and-a-quarter very well in previous runs. Should not be discounted at 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    Making A Splash

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    3:35 – Dubai Sheema Classic (Group One) – Liberty Island @ 5/2 (General)

    Everyone will be latching onto the Auguste Rodin factor, which I understand. He was Europe’s top three-year-old and finished with a flourish in the Breeders’ Cup. But chiefly, he’s now a four-year-old and the challenges will be a little tougher.

    Particularly when up against Japan’s top three-year-old from last year who is Liberty Island. Her only blemish last season was finishing runner-up behind the extremely talented Equinox. But a run of four Group One’s, all won in dominant fashion, but Japan’s challenge at number one.

    But if there’s been one horse that has surprised everyone it’s Spirit Dancer. Arguably a shock winner of the Bahrain International Trophy, he went on to win almost £1million in Saudi Arabia for a Group Two. Sandwiched in between was a fourth at Meydan, but at the top level this horse can spring another surprise and round off Sir Alex Ferguson’s Winter of major content. 20/1 (William Hill).

     

    Far East in the Middle East

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    4:35 – Dubai World Cup (Group One) – Ushba Tesoro @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Ushba Tesoro won this race last year in dominant fashion. He couldn’t follow up in the Breeders’ Cup, but has since won at Listed level back in Japan and was only beaten by a head in the Saudi Cup by Senor Buscador. With the extra furlong in his favour over the American, Ushba Tesoro can follow up and write his name in the history books.

    For what happened in the Saudi Cup, Senor Buscador is overpriced and he can’t be faulted on his recent form. Coming back from disappointment in the Breeders’ Cup he finished second in a handicap at Aqueduct, beaten a neck by National Treasure at Gulfstream and just fended off Usbha Tesoro to win the Saudi Cup. Clearly possesses a lot of talent and his price of 9/1 (BetVictor) should be taken advantage of.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    The curtain-raiser of the flat season is back. The Lincoln handicap signals the closing of the National Hunt season as we begin the transition to the speed and ferocity of the flat. Newbury offers the big jumps card of the day as we mix between the two genres in the Spring.

     

    Doncaster

    Shining Armour

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    1:20 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) – Knight @ 3/1 (Unibet)

    It was a disappointing season from Knight last season. He promised a lot as a two-year-old, but never hit the ground running in five group races. He was narrowly beaten at Sandown by Chindit, on soft ground which shows he’ll prefer today’s going. With Charyn wanting better ground, Knight can kick start the flat season with his first win since 2022.

    Astral Beau won this race last year, when rated 86 amongst horses rated 100+. Her victory was mainly based on the heavy going, and with heavy in places in the description she’ll relish the test once again this year. 7/2 (General).

    Dashing Roger can also take advantage of the testing ground. He won two races at the back-end of last season on heavy ground, including a handicap by five-and-a-half lengths. Rossa Ryan is an interesting booking, with plenty of placings in recent days. 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Barra-full of Cash

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    3:00 – William Hill Cammidge Trophy (Listed) – Baradar @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Baradar is stepping into level weights for the first time since 2022, when racing in Ireland. He came third in last year’s Lincoln. He managed to win two class two handicaps last season and will not mind the testing conditions. Listed races can sometimes be tricky to negotiate, but this looks like a nice race for Baradar to dominate.

     

    First Big Flat Handicap

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    3:35 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) – Lattam @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    A word on the favourites; The Irish haven’t won this race in 40 years, and it doesn’t look like it will be broken with the Irish Lincoln winner carrying an extra five pounds. Liberty Lane looks a little too high in the weights. Despite being drawn on the far side, he’s on the far rail and only a couple of horses have won from that position.

    I like the look of Lattam, running for the first time under Julie Camacho. He’s a winner of the Irish Lincoln and usually performs well first time out in the season. He hasn’t moved off his mark of 95 but will like the ground and performs well at this time in the season.

    Last year’s winner Migration should go well again. He’s four pounds higher in the weights, but he always is on his A game at the start of the season. David Menusier hasn’t been running many horses during the winter, but given he has a 50% strike rate from running two horses, he is a target trainer and will have prepped Migration for this race again. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Spirit Genie is a live outsider for the race. He performed well at the back-end of last season with a win and a narrow second on similar ground which won’t be a problem. His mark of 86 sees him sneak into to the race, rather than dropping into the Spring Mile. It might be his first time at this level, but Jennie Candlish has managed to win two races from her last five runners at a 40% strike rate. 16/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Something’s In The Room…

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    3:15 – British EBF BetVictor “National Hunt” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – El Elefante @ 11/2 (BetVictor)

    It took four attempts, but El Elefante finally got her elusive win at Ayr, the Friday before the Festival. The form was well franked after her run in the Rossington Main behind Jeriko Du Reponet. But as he disappointed at the Festival, the second and third didn’t. She remains on the same winning mark as before and despite a high weight she has plenty of talent.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    Four To Follow: Last Chance Saloon

    With three weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival, some are running out of time to find an appropriate prep race. But Kempton could provide a last chance with three Grade Two races and a big-money handicap too. Plus, we look ahead to the Grand National with the Eider Chase and the Winter Derby moves up to Southwell from Lingfield, to complete this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Patron Pay Day

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    2:27 – Pendil Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Le Patron @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Scilly Isles’ was his first no-show of the season, but it’s clear that he wasn’t suited by the front-running tactics of Nickle Back. Because of that, his jumping display was quite poor. With no identified pace in the field, it should be back to normal for Le Patron, who is a two-time winner at this level and will feel at home going right-handed at Kempton. Even with a five-pound penalty, he’s still the best rated horse and should be taken seriously.

     

    The Wizard Of Odds

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    3:37 – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 13/2 (Boylesports)

    There’s a key bit of form for this race which comes from November. The Ascot Silver Cup’s top four horses have all won since. Two feature in this race today, including Blackjack Magic. He hasn’t set the world alight since winning the Badger Beers at Wincanton, but he’s handicapped back to a nice mark of 138. This was the same mark he was back in November, when making a mistake at the last when running a cracker. He as every chance of running another again.

    Unanswered Prayers doesn’t look the most attractive on recent form. A fall and an unseat, bookended by two fifths don’t’ make it for good reading. However, he ran a big race when battling for second at the last fence with Grand National Trial winner Yeah Man. His form for the next race at Ascot also holds up too. He’s off the same mark for the Sodexo Gold Cup and can run a massive race at a massive price, 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Newcastle

    Duck For Cover

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    2:08 – Eider Handicap Chase – Fenland Tiger @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Fun fact: and Eider is a duck. But today is about the Tiger. Everyone may be looking towards Anglers Crag, but the handicapper has had a field day raising him a massive 11lbs after a hattrick of wins. That will be hard to overcome, when he’s stepping up in class too.

    Fenland Tiger can take advantage of that massive rise in the weights, and the heavy ground up at Gosforth Park. He’s likes extreme distances, winning over three-and-a-quarter miles at Doncaster at the start of the year. He faces another rise of seven pounds, but with the ground as it is he has to be favoured a little too big of a price.

    Tommie Beau is another who can take advantage of the boggy conditions. He’s won two ‘Nationals’ already (Durham and Southern) and second in the Sussex National too. Heavy ground + extreme distance suits him to a tee and the mark he’s been given won’t trouble him. Nice even price at 8/1 (General).

    One rain lover at a bigger price is Rath An Iuir. Despite making a big jump from class four to class two, he ran in last year’s Eider and is on a three-pound lower mark this time around. Heavy ground helped him in his win at Kelso over the Festive period and sneaks in at the bottom end of the weights. Each-way claims at 12/1 (General).

     

    Southwell

    A Last Hurrah?

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    3:20 – BetUK Winter Derby Stakes (Group Three) – Lord North @ 13/8 (General)

    Lord North has been a world class horse, but we haven’t seen him since he won the Dubai Turf at the World Cup Festival last year. It’s clear that John & Thady Gosden want him to come here, before one last big international plunder. He’s 11lbs clear of the rest on level weights, and it makes little to no sense why he’s odds-against.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    Four To Follow: Pic-ture That

    It’s the final Grade One before the Cheltenham Festival, the Ascot Chase, with one horse in particular looking to make a big impression on the Gold Cup market. There’s also the intriguing Swinley Chase and Grand National Trial up at Haydock. Plus, the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton to make up this week’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ascot

    Victtori’s In The Bag

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    3:00 – Injured Jockeys Fund Ambassadors Programme Swinley Handicap Chase (Premier) – Victtorino @ 100/30 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    So far Victtorino is two for two at Ascot. His only blip this season came at Cheltenham, when stepped down in trip, and he didn’t seem to handle it. Now back to an ideal trip, he’s only four pounds higher than his previous winning mark, the same rise in the weights for his first win at Ascot. He holds no entry for Cheltenham and will have been aimed for this race instead.

    Revels Hill makes great each-way appeal, despite this being his first start of the season. He races off the same mark he was for this race last season, 137, when finishing third. Trainer Harry Fry says that he’s a spring horse, and in ideal spring-like conditions he should relish the competition and finish a lot nearer this time. Worth having at 13/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Easy Pic

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    3:36 – Ascot Chase (Grade One) – Pic D’Orhy @ 15/8 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    Despite having an entry in the Ryanair, Pic D’Orhy should miss Cheltenham. This race is his Cheltenham. Second to a certain Shishkin last year, his unbeaten streak was ended from a tough performance by Banbridge at Kempton. L’Homme Presse is taking the odd route of going intermediate before long-distance and might just want an extra run before the main aim. Interesting to see Ahoy Senor in here, but Aintree will be the time to back him. Pic D’Orhy has been trained for this race all season you feel.

     

    Haydock

    Aiming For Grand Gold

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    3:15 – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier) – My Silver Lining @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When My Silver Lining won at Warwick, the cogs turned for Emma Lavelle and team. The Grand National is the aim for this horse and needs to win, at least, another race to be considered. With good form on heavy ground, a low weight in the race and never dropping below second in his last five races, it makes sense to go for him on his path to the Grand National.

    However, a winner of the Grand National Trial has never won the Grand National in the same year (Party Politics won the National the year before, Red Rum won his first two Nationals before his win in the Trial).

    Iwilldoit has had some time to readjust his mark back to a decent handicapping standard. His third in the Fleur De Lys made sure of that and is back competing, even better with jockey Dylan Johnston claiming five pounds. He’s lightly raced, with decent experience on heavy ground and seasoned long-distance travellers have a good record in the race. Nicely priced at 7/1 (General) to win his first race in over a year.

    Chambard still holds a chance at this race, despite being raised seven pounds for his win in the Becher Chase. It didn’t go to plan in the Welsh National, but Haydock may suit a little better with no undulations. And, going on his run in the Becher, there’s no one better in the race that can handle bottomless ground. Outside price, but not an outside chance at 22/1 (General).

     

    Wincanton

    Give You A Clue

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    2:05 – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade Two) – Colonel Mustard @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    The only reason Rubaud can’t be backed is because of a hefty penalty he carries. That gives Colonel Mustard a big advantage, now back over hurdles after a disappointing time chasing. Plenty in this field won’t like the heavy ground, but Colonel Mustard is the best rated horse and has the value going for him as Rubaud drifts in the market.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    With Warwick and Uttoxeter, it really is a Super Saturday at Newbury today. We’ve got star quality with Shishkin in the Denman and the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle with trainers from both sides of the Irish Sea looking to land the big pot. Here’s four to look out for on the card in Berkshire today.

     

    Super Sam

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    2:05 – Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Sam Brown @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    With heavy ground setting the precedent for the day, it makes sense to back the mud-lovers. Despite Shishkin being odds-on, he got pulled on heavy ground when it was similar ground at Sandown back in December. Nicky Henderson has said he will not pull the horse due to the ground, but we’ve seen it happen before.

    Protektorat hasn’t won a race in over a year, Hitman can’t travel three miles and Does He Know won’t act on the ground. It makes sense to back Sam Brown after his Classic Chase demolition on soft ground at Warwick last month. A three-time winner on heavy ground has seen his odds slash in half and it makes sense to back him against a vulnerable Shishkin.

     

    Surprise result

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    2:40 – Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Boothill @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    With Editeur Du Gite confirmed to be pulled, four runners will go to post for a rather lacklustre renewal of the Game Spirit Chase. Edwardstone drops back to two miles after disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase, but the ground looks as though is against him as it will be for his other three opponents.

    There’s only one pound in favour for Edwardstone over Boothill and Amarillo Sky. Amarillo Sky hasn’t run since last year’s Champion Chase, and Boothill is by far the most successful horse in the field. Despite the ground being as testing as it is, Boothill could spring a surprise in the mud against a top two-mile chaser.

     

    French fancy

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    3:15 – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Ocastle Des Mottes @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When Willie Mullins brings one over, for a big handicap, heads do turn. The fact this is a French arrival, and a good one at that, turns even more heads. Despite after a break of over 230 days, Ocastle Des Mottes will be fully prepared for the challenge. Plus, his previous form on heavy ground in France will benefit him massively.

    Spirit D’Aunou will relish this ground. Two out of his last three wins have come on testing surfaces. And despite being raised 10lbs, and second in the weights, the ground will override those factors. Gary Moore has been focused on this race for him, the fact the ground has come up heavy is a massive plus. 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports) seems fair, but it could be backed in the morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times in the last ten years. Five out of the last ten years have been double figure prices. If you follow those simple trends, you’ll find Norman Fletcher. His last win came on heavy ground and was convincing. This is his first time in this company, and he comes in under the radar at a rather low weight. If he wins at 25/1 (General), we won’t be stuck eating porridge.

     

    Bumper bonus

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    4:25 – Beacons Bumper (NHF Race, Listed) – Union Avenue @ 4/1 (General)

    In a race I wouldn’t usually tip, there’s a few things I like about Union Avenue. Firstly, Jimmy Moffat is bringing this horse down from Cumbria, which must mean he thinks a lot about this horse. Secondly, the trainer is a soft ground merchant. Out of his 18 winners, with five on heavy going. Thirdly, Union Avenue finished behind a certain Captain Bellamy on his final point-to-point start, with the form franked when he won at Chepstow in October.

    The very best of luck

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. After the almighty shock of Marine Nationale being downed by Il Etait Temps and the excellent majesty of Galopin Des Champs, it ended up being a disappointing day for the page yesterday. But we look up and head into a new day, armed with the best tips around.

     

    Leopardstown

    Warrior Has A Weakness. FACT.

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    1:10 – Novice Chase (Turner’s Trial) (Grade 1) – Fact To File @ 2/1 (General)

    If there’s one weakness that Gaelic Warrior has, it’s jumping right-handed. He may have been flawless last year over hurdles, but chasing is a whole different aspect and in a high-quality field, every mistake is costly.

    Fact To File thrashed Zanahiyr over Christmas by 17 lengths, and over C&D. He seems primed to head to the Turner’s, whereas stablemate Gaelic Warrior doesn’t.

    Grangeclare West is one who has been overlooked in the field after winning a Grade One is a high-quality field. Whilst his destination may be over further, he won’t mind stepping back in trip and 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports) is far too big. A Fact To File & Grangeclare West reverse forecast may be the bet of the race.

     

    Gallop To Glory

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    1:50 – Tattersalls Novice Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    If it hadn’t been for a heavy fall at the second last, Farren Glory would have blitzed the field in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle. The form is clear that he wouldn’t have beaten much after Florida Dreams disappointed at Musselburgh yesterday. He’s still a Grade One winner all in all and Ballyburn did show a chink in his armour on debut, and also didn’t beat much in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.

     

    You Know What I’m Thinkin’?

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    3:20 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade Three) – Inothewayurthinkin @ 6/1 (General)

    Inothewayurthinkin brings plenty of quality form to the table in this race. A novice still, he’s finished behind Gaelic Warrior twice. He’s slightly up in distance, which won’t trouble him at all. His first handicap mark is generous enough and can make a big impact in a big handicap.

    Heart Wood also has standout novice form, including finishing behind Grangeclare West before he backed it up in a Grade One. With that sort of form, and not being beaten that far behind Grangeclare West, the handicapper took into account his previous run when not up to it against Blood Destiny. He’ll handle the trip and is generously priced at 8/1 (General).

    Lucid Dreams could run a big race, over an untried trip for John Patrick Ryan. He ran a great race behind Uncle Phil in the Dan & Joan Moore and showed signs of staying potential. It’s a big ask and a big hike in distance, but his last win was comfortable over two-and-a-half miles and can recreate that winning feeling under a good claiming ride. On the drift, however, now 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Musselburgh

    Hear The Thunder

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    3:35 – Scottish Champion Chase (H’cap Chase) – Thunder Rock @7/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt Gavin Sheehan has had the season of his life. Multiple big race wins has just shown how talented a jockey he really is. It’s possibly why Max McNeil and Olly Murphy have chosen him to part with Thunder Rock, with Sean Bowen back to riding on Monday and Adrian Heskin over in Ireland. After disappointing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he’s back in a ‘lesser’ race where he doesn’t carry top weight and gives him a fighting chance.

    And it wouldn’t be Musselburgh without Scottish-trained winners. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are the leaders in their respective championships at the track and saddle Corrigeen Rock. He finished second on New Year’s Day over two-and-a-half miles and the step back in trip off a pound higher mark, but there looks to be plenty of improvement from him. Generous at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!